INTERNATIONAL POLICY CENTER
Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy
University of Michigan
IPC Working Paper Series Number 21
Job Security Does Affect Economic Efficiency: Theory, A new
Statistic, and Evidence from Chile
Amil Petrin
Jagadeesh Sivadasan
December 2006
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K
Figure 1
Expected Discounted Cost of Firing a Worker
Multiples of Monthly Wages, Latin America and the OECD Countries, 1999
16
14
12
8
6
4
Source: Heckman and Pages (2004). Firing costs are defined as the additional payment made to the worker at the time of dismissal.
This definition does not include ``indirect'' payments, like those made by U.S. firms into an insurance fund based in part on the
number of firings at the firm.
Peru
Ecuador
Brazil
Colombia
Venezuela
Bolivia
Portugal
Turkey
Korea
Costa Rica
Panama
Honduras
Chile
Italy
Spain
Mexico
El Salvador
Argentina
Nicaragua
Dom. Republic
Uruguay
Sweden
Paraguay
Austria
Belgium
Australia
Finland
Hungary
France
United Kingdom
Switzerland
Poland
Germany
Ireland
Norway
Netherlands
Japan
Canada
New Zealand
0
Guatemala
2
United States
#
10
Figure 2
The Change in Firing Costs in Chile
Expected discounted cost of dismissing a worker, in multiples of monthly wages
3.5
3
2
#
2.5
1.5
1
0.5
0
1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Source: Pages and Montenegro (1999).
Figure 3
Relating Changes in Gaps to Changes in Welfare
Price
Demand
Marginal
Revenue
Wage
E
D
A
QMONOPOLIST
B
C
QSOCPLANNER
Quantity
Qmonopolist sets marginal revenue equal to wage, while Qsocplanner sets demand equal to wage. In a
competitive setting (no markups) we recover the difference between the demand curve and input
marginal cost (wage). In this case, if the absolute value of the gap increases then economic
efficiency decreases, as in a move from B to A or B to C. When there are markups we recover
the gap between the marginal revenue curve and marginal cost (wage). In this case we can only
sign the change in economic efficiency for firms that have positive gaps (i.e. to the left of
Qmonopolist ). For example, welfare unambiguously decreases if we move from D to E.
Table 1
The Absolute Value of the Gap
Between the Marginal Revenue Product and the Input Price, 1979-1996
All Specifications Include Plant-level Fixed Effects
Simultaneity-Corrected Production Function Estimates, Standard Errors in Brackets
Blue Collar
(1)
Base Period Gap (1979-1984)
(2)
Materials
(1)
(2)
(1)
Electricity
(2)
(1)
(2)
99.11
99.31
175.48
175.99
0.31
0.31
7.56
7.59
[4.53]**
[4.53]**
[4.48]**
[4.50]**
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.28]**
[0.28]**
20.99
20.68
9.51
8.69
-0.04
-0.04
-1.11
-1.15
[4.41]**
[4.42]**
[5.87]
[5.89]
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.33]**
[0.34]**
33.02
32.74
15.56
14.83
-0.02
-0.01
-1.57
-1.61
[7.95]**
[7.97]**
[6.86]*
[6.89]*
[0.01]*
[0.01]*
[0.40]**
[0.41]**
ñ
Increase in Gap, 2nd Pd. (85-90)
White Collar
Increase in Gap, 3rd Pd. (91-96)
Industry Output Growth Rate
Observations
R-squared
2.01
5.16
-0.01
0.29
[1.35]
[3.41]
[0.01]+
[0.19]
54,230
54,226
54,269
54,265
55,329
55,325
55,329
55,325
0.81
0.81
0.67
0.67
0.69
0.69
0.71
0.71
All variables are in thousands of 1979 pesos. We focus on the absolute value of the gap because increases in the gap are associated with decreases
in economic efficiency (see Figure 3). Marginal product estimates are from a gross output Cobb-Douglas production function specification, which
is estimated using Levinsohn-Petrin (2002) to address the simultaneous determination of inputs and productivity. The blue-collar input price is
the total blue-collar wage bill divided by the number of blue-collar employees. We define the other input prices similarly. We estimate
production functions separately for each 3-digit industry. We cluster standard errors at the 4-digit industry-period level. + significant at 10%; *
significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%.
Table 2
Average Dispersion of the Within-Firm Gap
Between the Marginal Revenue Product and the Input Price, 1979-1996
All Specifications Include Plant-level Fixed Effects
Simultaneity-Corrected Production Function Estimates, Standard Errors in Brackets
Blue Collar
Increase in Gap, 2nd Pd. (85-90)
Materials
(1)
Electricity
(1)
(2)
(1)
(2)
(2)
(1)
(2)
102.71
102.87
144.67
145.07
0.26
0.26
7.13
7.15
[2.97]**
[2.98]**
[3.05]**
[3.06]**
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.16]**
[0.16]**
20.91
20.67
13.79
13.16
-0.04
-0.04
-0.97
-1.00
[3.48]**
[3.49]**
[3.68]**
[3.704]**
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.18]**
[0.19]**
43.29
43.08
25.7
25.14
-0.02
-0.02
-1.19
-1.21
[5.02]**
[5.04]**
[4.787]**
[4.798]**
[0.004]**
[0.004]**
[0.23]**
[0.23]**
^
Base Period Gap (1979-1984)
White Collar
Increase in Gap, 3rd Pd. (91-96)
Industry Output Growth Rate
Observations
R-squared
1.52
3.99
-0.01
0.17
[1.09]
[2.46]
[0.01]+
[0.12]
54,230
54,226
54,269
54,265
55,329
55,325
55,329
55,325
0.76
0.76
0.60
0.60
0.63
0.63
0.58
0.58
All variables are in thousands of 1979 pesos. We measure dispersion by predicting expected plant-year gaps by regressing observed plant-level
gaps used in Table 1 on plant fixed effects and two indicator variables that allow changes in firing cost to affect the prediction, one for 19851990, and one for 1991-1996. We then deduct the prediction from the observed plant-level gap, and take the absolute value. We cluster
standard errors at the 4-digit industry-period level. + significant at 10%; * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%.
Table 3
The Gap between the Marginal Revenue Product and the Input Price, 1979-1996
All Specifications Only Use Plants with Positive Gaps in Juxtaposed Time-Periods to Allow for Markups
All Specifications Include Plant-level Fixed Effects
Simultaneity-Corrected Production Function Estimates, Standard Errors in Brackets
Blue Collar
Base Period Gap (1979-1984)
Materials
(1)
Electricity
(1)
(2)
(1)
(2)
(2)
(1)
(2)
113.66
114.72
197.63
198.21
0.44
0.44
8.24
8.27
[5.62]**
[5.59]**
[6.77]**
[6.79]**
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.29]**
[0.29]**
30.47
28.47
28.34
27.33
-0.09
-0.08
-1.21
-1.26
[5.27]**
[5.21]**
[7.65]**
[7.67]**
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.34]**
[0.35]**
46.92
45.23
33.15
32.26
-0.03
-0.03
-1.70
-1.74
[9.78]**
[9.76]**
[10.55]**
[10.59]**
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.41]**
[0.42]**
#
Increase in Gap, 2nd Pd. (85-90)
White Collar
Increase in Gap, 3rd Pd. (91-96)
Industry Output Growth Rate
Observations
R-squared
14.32
7.10
-0.01
0.30
[3.87]**
[4.45]
[0.01]
[0.20]
37,923
37,921
38,167
38,165
28,647
28,644
50,519
50,515
0.79
0.79
0.7
0.7
0.71
0.71
0.7
0.7
All variables are in thousands of 1979 pesos. If markups exist, our focus should be on only those firms with positive gaps in juxtaposed timeperiods. Increases in the value of the gap for these firms are associated with decreases in economic efficiency (see Figure 3). Marginal product
estimates are from a gross output Cobb-Douglas production function specification, which is estimated using Levinsohn-Petrin (2002) to address
the simultaneous determination of inputs and productivity. The blue-collar input price is the total blue-collar wage bill divided by the number of
blue-collar employees. We define the other input prices similarly. We estimate production functions separately for each 3-digit industry. We
cluster standard errors at the 4-digit industry-period level. + significant at 10%; * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%.
Figure 4
Year-to-Year Differences in the Absolute Gap
Blue and White Collar Labor, Materials, and Electricity
Levinsohn-Petrin Production Function Estimates
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
1980
1981
1982
1983
BLUE
1984
1985
1986
WHITE
1987
1988
1989
1990
MATERIALS
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
ELECTRICITY
The graph plots the coefficient on year dummies in regression of absolute gap between marginal product of an input and its normalized price. The regression
includes firm fixed effects and industry output growth rate. Year 1980 is normalized to 100.
Figure 5
Average Absolute Value of Within−Firm Gap
Blue and White Collar Labor
1000’s of 1979 Chilean Pesos
80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220
Z
95% Confidence Interval for Change in Gap
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Year
Blue Collar Gap (Mean)
White Collar Gap (Mean)
Blue Collar Gap (95% C.I., l.b.)
White Collar Gap (95% C.I., l.b.)
Blue Collar Gap (95% C.I., u.b.)
White Collar Gap (95% C.I., u.b.)
Gaps are those implied by the Levinsohn-Petrin Estimator. The figure plots the coefficients from the regression of the absolute
value of the gaps on yearly indicator variables, plant-level fixed effects, and the percentage change in the industry growth rate.
The two lines demark the level of the average gap for blue and white collar labor in 1984, so the years for which the line is not
within the confidence interval are the years for which the change in the gap is significantly different from the 1984 gap.
Figure 6
Average Dispersion of Within−Firm Gaps
Blue and White Collar Labor
1000’s of 1979 Chilean Pesos
80 100 120 140 160 180 200
N
95% Confidence Interval for Change in Dispersion
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Year
Blue Collar (Avg. Dispersion)
White Collar (Avg. Dispersion)
Blue Collar (95% C.I., l.b.)
White Collar (95% C.I., l.b.)
Blue Collar (95% C.I., u.b.)
White Collar (95% C.I., u.b.)
We measure dispersion by predicting expected plant-year gaps by regressing observed plant-level gaps used in Table 1 on plant
fixed effects and two indicator variables that allow changes in firing cost to affect the prediction, one for 1985-1990, and one for
1991-1996. We then deduct the prediction from the observed plant-level gap, and take the absolute value. The figure plots the
coefficients from the regression of this dispersion on yearly indicator variables, plant-level fixed effects, and the percentage
change in the industry growth rate. The two lines demark the level of the average dispersion for blue- and white- collar labor in
1984, so the years for which the line is not within the confidence interval are the years for which the change in the gap is
significantly different from the 1984 gap.
Table 4
Labor Demand Regression
Blue Collar Employment, Instrumental Variables
Period 1
(1979-84)
Constant
-0.01
[0.01]
-0.12
[0.03]**
-0.04
[0.01]**
0.11
[0.02]**
-0.02
[0.01]*
0.10
[0.01]**
0.04
[0.01]**
0.12
[0.05]*
Blue wage
Blue wage_t-1
White wage
White wage_t-1
Value added
Value added_t-1
Blue Employment_t-1
Blue Collar Labor
Period 2
Period 3
(1985-90)
(1991-96)
All Periods
0.01
[0.01]*
-0.04
[0.01]**
-0.02
[0.01]**
-0.23
[0.02]**
-0.10
[0.04]*
-0.19
[0.01]**
0.08
[0.01]**
0.02
[0.01]
-0.03
[0.01]**
-0.01
[0.02]
-0.01
[0.01]
0.43
[0.09]**
0.23
[0.02]**
0.02
[0.01]
-0.02
[0.01]*
0.07
[0.01]**
-0.01
[0.01]+
0.66
[0.07]**
15,272
18,499
0.06
[0.01]**
0.05
[0.01]**
-0.04
[0.01]**
0.08
[0.01]**
0.01
[0.01]**
0.45
[0.05]**
0.01
[0.01]
0.01
[0.01]
0.35
[0.10]**
-0.28
[0.09]**
41,900
Period Dummy (1985-1990)
Period Dummy (1991-1996)
Period Dummy (1985-1990)*Blue Employment_t-1
Period Dummy (1991-1996)*Blue Employment_t-1
Observations
8,129
Dependent variable is the log (Blue Collar Employment). All other variables are also in logs. The
regressions are estimated in first differences. The endogenous variables are Blue Wage, White Wage,
Value Added and Blue Employment_t-1. Instruments are lagged industry output, lagged industry average
Blue Wage, Lagged industry average White Wage, two-period lagged industry output, double lagged
industry average blue wage, double lagged industry average white wage, two-period lagged Blue Wage,
two-period lagged White Wage, two-period lagged Materials, two-period lagged Capital, two-period lagged
Value Added and three-period lagged Blue Collar employment. Standard errors are adjusted for clustering
at the 4-digit industry level. + significant at 10%; * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%.
K
Table 5
Labor Demand Regression
Blue Collar Employment, Fixed Effects
Blue Collar Labor
Period 1
(1979-84)
Period 2
(1985-90)
Period 3
(1991-96)
All Periods
Constant
1.59
[0.09]**
1.55
[0.18]**
2.08
[0.23]**
0.89
[0.04]**
Blue wage
-0.15
[0.02]**
Blue wage_t-1
-0.01
[0.01]
0.09
[0.01]**
-0.02
[0.01]**
0.11
[0.01]**
0.03
[0.01]**
0.22
[0.01]**
-0.26
[0.02]**
0.06
[0.01]**
0.06
[0.01]**
-0.28
[0.02]**
0.06
[0.01]**
0.02
[0.01]
-0.23
[0.01]**
0.09
[0.01]**
0.06
[0.01]**
-0.01
[0.01]*
0.10
[0.01]**
0.03
[0.01]**
0.36
[0.02]**
-0.01
[0.01]*
0.11
[0.01]**
0.01
[0.01]*
0.32
[0.02]**
-0.04
[0.01]**
0.11
[0.01]**
0.01
[0.01]**
0.55
[0.01]**
White wage
White wage_t-1
Value added
Value added_t-1
Blue Employment_t-1
Period Dummy (1985-1990)
-0.03
[0.01]*
-0.02
[0.01]
0.02
Period Dummy (1991-1996)
Period Dummy (1985-1990)*Blue
Employment_t-1
[0.01]**
0.02
Period Dummy (1991-1996)*Blue
Employment_t-1
Observations
R-squared
17,650
20,416
23,155
[0.01]**
61,221
0.95
0.95
0.94
0.93
Dependent variable is the log (Blue Collar Employment). All other variables are also in logs. Standard
errors are adjusted for clustering at the 4-digit industry level. + significant at 10%; * significant at 5%; **
significant at 1%.
Table 6
Probability of Not Adjusting Labor
Constant
Period dummy (1985-1990)
Period dummy (1991-1996)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
0.179
[0.013]**
-0.044
[0.008]**
-0.044
[0.006]**
0.179
[0.013]**
-0.044
[0.008]**
-0.044
[0.006]**
-0.002
[0.003]
0.146
[0.006]**
-0.003
[0.009]
0.009
[0.010]
0.146
[0.007]**
-0.003
[0.009]
0.008
[0.010]
0.001
[0.003]
0.172
[0.023]**
0.001
[0.011]
0.017
[0.015]
0.17
[0.032]**
0.012
[0.011]
0.036
[0.018]*
0
[0.000]**
0
[0.000]
-0.003
[0.005]
0
[0.000]**
0
[0.000]+
Industry output growth rate
Lagged labor
Firm wage rate
Observed productivity (LP estimate)
Observed productivity (Fixed Effects estimate)
Fixed effects
Observations
R-squared
Number of clusters
None
73,705
0
89
None
73,689
0
89
Firm
73,705
0.25
89
Firm
73,689
0.25
89
Firm
55,204
0.24
60
-0.008
[0.013]
Firm
31,891
0.25
84
Dependent variable is one if the firm does not adjust its total employment level from the previous year. All other variables are in logs.
Standard errors are adjusted for clustering at the 4-digit industry level. + significant at 10%; * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%.
Table 7
Firing Rates Conditional on Firing
Percentage change
Constant
Period dummy (1985-1990)
Period dummy (1991-1996)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
0.172
[0.005]**
-0.019
[0.005]**
-0.026
[0.004]**
0.17
[0.005]**
-0.016
[0.005]**
-0.023
[0.004]**
-0.011
[0.005]*
0.174
[0.004]**
-0.025
[0.008]**
-0.026
[0.005]**
0.169
[0.003]**
-0.019
[0.007]**
-0.02
[0.004]**
-0.025
[0.006]**
0.232
[0.026]**
-0.034
[0.010]**
-0.057
[0.010]**
0.208
[0.022]**
-0.03
[0.013]*
-0.06
[0.014]**
0.00
[0.000]**
0.00
[0.000]**
-0.02
[0.006]**
0.00
[0.000]**
0.00
[0.000]**
Z
Industry output growth rate
Lagged labor
Firm wage rate
Observed productivity (LP estimate)
Observed productivity (Fixed Effects estimate)
Fixed effects
Observations
R-squared
Number of clusters
None
28,908
0.01
89
None
28,898
0.01
89
Firm
28,908
0.37
89
Firm
28,898
0.37
89
Firm
21,216
0.39
60
-0.028
[0.007]**
Firm
12,557
0.410
81
Firing rate is the absolute percentage decrease in employment over the previous year, defined for firms that decrease employment. Standard errors are adjusted
for clustering at the 4-digit industry level. + significant at 10%; * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%.
Table 8
Hiring Rates Conditional on Hiring
Percentage Changes
Constant
Period dummy (1985-1990)
Period dummy (1991-1996)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
0.244
[0.011]**
-0.012
[0.006]+
0.244
[0.011]**
-0.013
[0.006]*
0.258
[0.007]**
-0.023
[0.007]**
0.258
[0.007]**
-0.023
[0.007]**
0.297
[0.024]**
0.014
[0.006]*
0.269
[0.033]**
0.023
[0.007]**
-0.045
[0.010]**
-0.046
[0.010]**
0.01
[0.007]
-0.074
[0.013]**
-0.074
[0.013]**
0.004
[0.005]
0.004
[0.013]
0.026
[0.009]**
0.00
0.00
[0.000]**
0.00
[0.000]**
0.007
[0.005]
[0.000]**
0.00
[0.000]**
¥ñZ
Industry output growth rate
Lagged labor
Firm wage rate
Observed productivity (LP estimate)
Observed productivity (Fixed Effects estimate)
Fixed effects
Observations
R-squared
Number of clusters
None
33,903
0.01
88
None
33,899
0.01
88
Firm
33,903
0.34
88
Firm
33,899
0.34
88
Firm
25,706
0.39
59
0.02
[0.014]
Firm
14,585
0.410
82
Hiring rate is the percentage change in total employment over previous year, defined for firms that increase employment. Standard errors are adjusted for
clustering at the 4-digit industry level. + significant at 10%; * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%.
Table 9
Explaining Movements in Real Wages
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
-0.37
-0.37
-0.40
-0.36
-0.53
[0.02]**
[0.02]**
[0.02]**
[0.02]**
[0.02]**
0.08
0.07
-0.007
0.09
-0.11
[0.02]**
[0.02]**
[0.02]
[0.02]**
[0.02]**
Period Dummy (1985-1990)
Period Dummy (1991-1996)
Firm Output Growth Rate
0.008
[0.002]**
Log(Industry Output)
0.12
[0.02]**
Industry Output Growth Rate
0.001
[0.006]
Unemployment Rate
-2.13
[0.19]**
Constant
4.49
4.52
2.52
4.48
4.81
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.31]**
[0.01]**
[0.02]**
86,176
73,701
86,160
80,346
86,176
R-squared
0.8
0.82
0.81
0.81
0.81
Number of clusters
89
89
89
89
89
Observations
Dependent variable is Log (real wage rate). Real wage rate is the nominal wage rate
deflated by the producer price index. Nominal wage rate is defined as the total wage bill/
number of employees. For each independent variable the first row gives the coefficient
values and the second row gives the related t-values. All regressions include firm fixed
effects. Standard errors are adjusted for clustering at the 4-digit industry level. +
significant at 10%; * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%.
Z^
Table A1
The Absolute Value of the Gap
Between the Marginal Revenue Product and the Input Price, 1979-1996
All Specifications Include Plant-level Fixed Effects
Fixed Effects Production Function Estimates
Standard Errors in Brackets
Blue Collar
Materials
(1)
Electricity
(1)
(2)
(1)
(2)
(2)
(1)
(2)
112.39
112.73
167.71
168.11
0.30
0.30
6.72
6.75
[5.02]**
[5.03]**
[3.63]**
[3.68]**
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.13]**
[0.13]**
27.78
27.19
9.62
8.89
-0.03
-0.03
-0.89
-0.92
[6.11]**
[6.10]**
[4.87]+
[4.93]+
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.14]**
[0.14]**
37.18
36.67
14.13
13.48
-0.02
-0.02
-1.4
-1.44
[7.92]**
[7.93]**
[5.83]*
[5.89]*
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.19]**
[0.19]**
Z
!#
Base Period Gap (1979-1984)
White Collar
Increase in Gap, 2
nd
Pd. (85-90)
Increase in Gap, 3rd Pd. (91-96)
Industry Output Growth Rate
Observations
R-squared
3.04
4.30
-0.01
0.22
[1.83]
[2.45]+
[0.01]+
[0.13]
60,796
60,781
60,824
60,809
62,287
62,272
62,287
62,272
0.81
0.81
0.68
0.68
0.67
0.67
0.70
0.70
All variables are in thousands of 1979 pesos. We focus on the absolute value of the gap because increases in the gap are associated with decreases
in economic efficiency (see Figure 3). Marginal product estimates are from a gross output Cobb-Douglas production function specification, which
is estimated using a fixed effects estimator to address the simultaneous determination of inputs and productivity. The blue-collar input price is
the total blue-collar wage bill divided by the number of blue-collar employees. We define the other input prices similarly. We estimate
production functions separately for each 3-digit industry. We cluster standard errors at the 4-digit industry-period level. + significant at 10%; *
significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%.
Table A2
Labor Demand Regression
Blue Collar Employment, OLS
OLS
Period 1
(1979-84)
Constant
Blue wage
Blue wage_t-1
White wage
White wage_t-1
Value added
Value added_t-1
Blue Employment_t-1
Period 2
(1985-90)
Period 3
(1991-96)
0.17
0.08
0.09
0.14
[0.03]**
[0.02]**
[0.03]**
[0.01]**
-0.19
-0.27
-0.29
-0.25
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.02]**
[0.01]**
0.09
0.17
0.20
0.15
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
0.08
0.05
0.04
0.06
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
-0.08
-0.04
-0.03
-0.05
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
0.10
0.10
0.12
0.11
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
-0.03
-0.02
-0.04
-0.03
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
0.85
0.87
0.88
0.85
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
[0.01]**
Period Dummy (1985-1990)
All
Periods
-0.04
[0.01]**
Period Dummy (1991-1996)
-0.05
[0.01]**
Period Dummy (1985-1990)*Blue Employment_t-1
0.02
[0.003]**
Period Dummy (1991-1996)*Blue Employment_t-1
0.01
[0.004]**
Observations
R-squared
17,650
20,416
23,155
61,221
0.91
0.92
0.9
0.91
Dependent variable is the log (Blue Collar Employment). All other variables are also in logs. Standard
errors are adjusted for clustering at the 4-digit industry level. + significant at 10%; * significant at 5%; **
significant at 1%.
Z
Figure A1
Trends in Real Wages
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
Median_Real_White_Wage
Median_Real_Blue_Wage
Source: Authors’ calculations
Figure A2
Inflation and Unemployment Rate
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Inflation_rate (cpi)
Unemployment_rate
Source: Edwards & Edwards (2000), ILO statistics, authors’ calculations.
ZZ
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
0%
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
0
1979
20