Identifying and Intervening with Patients at High Risk of Hospital Admission Academy Health Annual Research Meeting, June 5th 2007 NYU Medical Center Bellevue Hospital Center Maria C. Raven, MD, MPH, MSc John C. Billings, JD Mark N. Gourevitch, MD, MPH Eric Manheimer, MD High Cost Care Initiative (HCCI): Research Initiative at Bellevue Hospital Center, NYC Supported by United Hospital Fund Goals: Characterize high-cost patients with frequent hospital admissions Use data to inform intervention to reduce admissions/costs and improve care What we’re going to cover Why focus on high cost Medicaid patients? How can we target high cost patients to identify them for interventions? What we have learned from identifying patients? What are the next steps? High Cost Medicaid Patients: the 80-20 rule NYC MEDICAID SSI DISABLED ADULTS Medicaid Managed Care “MMC” Mandatory [Non-Dual, Non-HIV/AIDS, Non-SPMI] 2003- 2004 100% 27.1% Percent of Total 80% 17.0% 60% 80.0% 25.9% 40% 20% 10.0% 0% 30.0% 7.0% 3.0% Patients Source: NYU Center for Health and Public Service Research, UHF, NYSDOH, 2006. Expenditures 72.9% Why Focus on High Cost Cases? Not only is it where the money is… These are some of the patients with the greatest need Many moving into managed care What used to be “revenue” is now “expense” Improved care offers potential for cost savings Predictive algorithm can identify high-risk patients Predictive algorithm created by John C. Billings identifies Medicaid patients at high-risk for hospital admission in next 12 months Algorithm generates risk score from 0-100 for every patient in a dataset Based on prior utilization Higher risk scores (>50) predictive of higher risk of admission in next 12 months General Approach for Development of Risk Prediction Algorithm (Reference) Admission Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 General Approach for Development of Risk Prediction Algorithm Examine utilization for prior 3+ years Year 1 Year 2 (Reference) Admission Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 General Approach for Development of Risk Prediction Algorithm (Reference)Predict admission Admission next 12 months Examine utilization for prior 3+ years Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Bellevue-specific predictive algorithm Pulled last five years of Bellevue’s Medicaid billing data Inpatient, ED, outpatient department Logistic regression created Bellevue-specific case-finding algorithm Created risk scores (0-100) applicable for any patient with a visit in the past 5 years Cohort with risk scores>50 = high risk for admission in next 12 months Subject Enrollment Cross-checked all admitted patients against our high-risk cohort every 24 hrs Identified and interviewed 50 such patients and their providers during hospital admission Determined medical/social contributors to frequent admissions Qualitative/quantitative measures Inclusion/Exclusion criteria Ages 18-64 Medicaid fee-for-service visit to Bellevue from 2001-2005 Excluded:HIV, dual eligible, institutionalized when not hospitalized, unable to communicate Patients enrolled when algorithmpredicted admission occurred Interview instruments Quantitative data from 50 patients Demographics SF-12 (health and well-being) Usual Source of Care BSI-18 (anxiety/depression/somatization) Perceived Availability of Support Scale (social support) Patient Activation Measure WHO-ASSIST (substance use) Medications (adapted from Brief Medication Questionnaire) Qualitative data from 47 patients, 40 physicians and 16 social workers Recruitment scheme for Bellevue pilot project 36,457 adult fee-for service Medicaid patients with visit to Bellevue, 20012006 2,618 with algorithm-based risk score>50 139 admitted during 2-month study period Billings’ algorithm Daily computer query checked past 24 hours’ admissions against 2,618 high-risk patients •89 ineligible or discharged prior to approach •11 refusals 50 patients consented and interviewed Strength of algorithm PPV=0.67 Of all admitted high risk patients, over 20 bouncebacks among 16 patients Of these 16 patients, 9 eligible, 8 interviewed 5 patients had >1 bounce-back during study period Source: NYU Center for Health and Public Service Research, UHF, NYSDOH, 2006. Some representative patients… Mr. O 58 y/o man with COPD and CHF Lives with daughter Feels hospital admission is unavoidable when he has difficulty breathing Does not seek intervention at symptom onset from primary doctor Multiple admissions for COPD and CHF Mr. R History of over 30 detox admissions One rehab Homeless on street Depression No other medical problems Ms. C Severe lupus Severe pain Outpatient doctors won’t prescribe her the narcotics she wants/needs Repeated admissions for lupus flare and pain control Often with 24-48 hour stays and no changes to outpatient regimen Demographic characteristics Characteristic % of total Male 72% Age in years 18-34 35-49 50-64 Mean age=44.3 20% 42% 38% Ethnicity African American Hispanic White Other 24% 54% 14% 8% Education and work history Characteristic % of total Education Less than high school High school/GED or greater Unknown 60% 36% 4% Income source None Public Assistance Social security Work Friends/family 8% 34% 38% 4% 12% Diagnoses Characteristic % of Total Any chronic disease Multiple chronic disease 68% 44% Stroke Cancer 6% 36% Any mental illness Schizoprhenia Psychoses Bi-polar/major depression 62% 10% 20% 28% Alcohol/substance abuse 66% Mental illness or Alc/substance abuse 82% Self-rated health Characteristic % of total General Health Status Excellent/Very good Good Fair/Poor 6% 24% 70% Health Limits Moderate Physical Activity A Lot A Little Not at all 45% 35% 20% Housing Characteristic % of total Current Housing Status Apartment/home rental Public Housing Residential Facility Staying with family/friends Shelter Homeless 34% 4% 2% 24% 8% 28% 60% Housing Disproportionate admissions for substance use, mental illness, and substance userelated medical problems among homeless subjects Similar differential in claims data % of Total Characteristic Permanent Housing Staying With Friends or Family Homeless or In Shelter Any chronic disease Multiple chronic disease 85% 65% 83% 50% 39% 17% Stroke Cancer 10% 70% 8% 17% 0% 11% Any mental illness Schizoprhenia Psychoses Bi-polar/major depression 55% 5% 15% 15% 75% 0% 25% 50% 61% 22% 22% 28% Alcohol/substance abuse 45% 58% 94% Mental illness or Alc/substance abuse 65% 83% 100% Substance use: ASSIST data 74% had mid-high substance use risk scores (37/50) Risk for harmful use/dependence with related social, legal, health problems 14% tobacco only (7/50) 60% multiple substances (30/50) Majority tobacco and alcohol, followed by cocaine and opioids 7 pts had used IV drugs Mental Health SF-12 Mental Composite Score Lower scores = higher levels of anxiety and depression Compared to the general US population: 38% (19/50) scored below the 25%ile 38% scored below the median BSI-18 “cases” at high risk for psychopathology based on anxiety, depression, and somatization summary score 68% (34/50) cases Usual Source of care Characteristic Usual Source of Care None % of total 22% ED 40% Hospital outpatient 30% Other 8% Source: High Cost Medicaid Project – Bellevue Hospital Center, NYU Center for Health and Public Service Research, 2006 Access to care % of Total Characteristic Usual source of care None Emergency department OPD/Clinic Community based clinic Private/Group MD/other Permanent Housing Staying With Friends or Family 15% 15% 25% 20% 25% Source: High Cost Medicaid Project – Bellevue Hospital Center, NYU Center for Health and Public Service Research, 2006. 17% 50% 25% 0% 8% Homeless or In Shelter 17% 67% 11% 0% 6% Social isolation Characteristic % of total Marital Status Married/living with partner Separated/divorced Widowed Never married 14% 26% 4% 56% Lives alone No close friends/relatives Two or fewer friends/relatives Low perceived availability of support 52% 16% 48% 38% Medicaid expenditures prior year Characteristic Bellevue costs prior year Inpatient Emergency department Primary care Specialty care Outpatient substance abuse treatment Outpatient mental health treatment Other costs Total costs prior year Mean Costs $37,418 $174 $168 $150 $343 $299 $636 $39,188 How much can we pay for an intervention, and still expect to save? (or break even) Depends on: Risk score level Projected reduction in inpatient admissions in the following year Based on annual Medicaid expenditures in our cohort: 25% reduction in future admissions over 1 year allows intervention spending of $9350 per patient Limitations Observational study-no control group Limited to English and Spanish speaking, nonHIV, Medicaid fee-for service Bellevue Hospital population Urban, underserved Conclusions and Implications • Patients with frequent hospital admissions comprise small percentage of all patients, but account for disproportionate share of visits and costs. • Social isolation, substance use, mental health, and housing issues were prevalent in our study population • Cited by patients/providers as contributing substantially to their hospital admissions. • Interventions focused on more effective management of their complex issues could result in cost-savings via decreased utilization and improved health. Next Steps Intervention project planning Intervention being informed by: Pilot data Partnership with providers of homeless services Successful components of similar programs in other safety net settings around country* Meetings with community providers (CBOs) of other services (e.g. substance use, mental health, HIV) *Chicago Housing for Health Partnership, California Frequent Users of Health Services Initiative www.chcf.org Bellevue intervention project model Begin at patient’s bedside in hospital, continue after his/her discharge into the community Housing component Flexible, intensive care management model, multi-disciplinary team approach, tailored to needs of each patient Bellevue-based team will partner with CBOs Thank You John C. Billings, JD Marc N. Gourevitch, MD, MPH Lewis R. Goldfrank, MD Mark D. Schwartz, MD Eric Manheimer, MD United Hospital Fund Supported in part by CDC T01 CD000146 Bellevue Hospital Intervention Project Hospitalized high-risk patients identified using predictive algorithm Small comprehensive multi-disciplinary team Intensive assessment, arrange and follow to ensure and assist with provision of post-discharge support Housing, residential substance abuse treatment, community based mental health treatment, specialized medical outpatient care Provision of temporary housing while awaiting supportive housing placement/prompt placement into permanent housing Bellevue Intervention Randomized Controlled Trial Medicaid/Uninsured Algorithm-bas ed ri sk sc ore>50 Admitted to Bell evue Hos pital Consent obtained 25 s ubjects enrolled/month for 12 months Randomi zation 150 subj ec ts: Interventi on 150 subj ec ts: Usual Care Bas eli ne measures Interventi on team ass igned, needs as sess ment If homeless , Common Ground to beds ide: Housi ng applic ati on begi ns : pati ent d/c to stabilizai tion housi ng Interventi on team i ntens ive c are management for 12 months In addition, heal th servi ces use/c os ts , and interventi on costs trac ked Bas eli ne measures Foll ow-up information Usual care for 12 months Interventi on team to trac k health s ervic es use and related costs 12-month follow-up measures c ol lected Bellevue intervention project baseline measures (RCT) Baseline assessments: Self-report generated Charlson Comorbidity Index: patient-reported disease severity measure predictive of 1year mortality Socio-demographic measures (e.g. age, gender, income, education) Diagnoses obtained from subject’s electronic medical record Bellevue intervention project baseline measures (RCT) Baseline assessments (validated tools): Health and daily functioning Substance use Mental Health Support Scale Usual Source of Care Housing status/living situation Common Ground in-depth assessment Bellevue intervention outcome measures Primary outcome Hospital admissions and associated expenditures Secondary outcomes Other health services (ED, outpatient clinics) utilization Other health services expenditures Intervention costs Housing status Change in psychosocial variables Appt adherence Benefits enrollment Entry into substance use services The intervention must pay for itself Central goal: intervention that generates more savings to the delivery system that it costs to implement and sustain. Eliminate even small % admissions and substantial cost savings can be had. Comprehensive economic analysis planned that considers Changes in the numbers of inpatient admissions, ED visits, and outpatient visits during the intervention period in addition to their related expenditures All costs related to the intervention. Ability of intervention to succeed in this goal will help determine whether it is Sustainable Exportable to other sites. Admission diagnoses: 30/50 (60%) homeless/precariously housed 23/30 (82%) : Substance use, psychiatric, medical condition related to substance use 9 detoxification services 3 alcohol/drug withdrawal or intoxication 4 psychiatric 7 drug/alcohol-related medical diagnoses CHF, trauma, chronic septic joint, cellulitis 5/30: infected ulcer, chest pain, catheter infection, GI bleed, COPD All with past or current substance use Admission diagnoses, 22/50 (44%) housed 1 Diabetes/coagulopathy 3 Lupus 5 Cancer 1 Dialysis/pain medication related 3 non-compliance resulting in disease exacerbation 2 Alcohol complications anemia, adrenal crisis, gastroparesis Hepatitis and ESLD 3 infections (2 PNA, 1 cellulitis) 2 COPD/asthma 1 ortho 1 psych Admission Diagnosis Diagnoses Cancer Lupus erythematosos Infection Pneumonia Cellulitis/foot ulcer Dialysis catheter Septic joint (IVDU) Diabetes mellitus Ulcer COPD/asthma CHF Epilepsy Fracture non-union Adrenal Insufficiency Anemia Chest pain (ACS) End-stage liver disease Psychiatric Detoxification services Alcohol withdrawal/intoxication Trauma Alcoholic hepatitis # of total 5 3 8 2 4 1 1 2 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 9 3 2 1 Medication 43% on medication at admission had missed at least one dose in prior week Most common reasons inability to pay for prescriptions (4) forgetting to take a dose (3) being unable to get to clinic or hospital for refills or medication administration (3) side effects (3) substance abuse (3)