Presentation AHRQ new mission and emphasis on MEPS: A National Information Resource to Support Health Care Research and Inform Policy and Practice Steven B. Cohen PhD Joel W. Cohen PhD & Karen Beauregard MHA New AHRQ Mission Statement To improve the quality, safety, efficiency, and effectiveness of health care for all Americans Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) Annual Survey of 15,000 households: provides national estimates of health care use, expenditures, insurance coverage, sources of payment, access to care and health care quality Permits studies of: Distribution of expenditures and sources of payment Role of demographics, family structure, insurance Expenditures for specific conditions Trends over time information and research efforts that translate into policy and practice MEPS overview and design enhancements Program outreach and impact Research Update MEPS Data Products and Dissemination Center for Financing, Access and Cost Trends Conducts, supports and manages studies of the cost and financing of health care, the access to health care services and related trends. Develops data sets to support policy and behavioral research and analyses. These studies and data development activities are designed to provide health care leaders and policymakers with the information and tools they need to improve decisions on health care financing, access, coverage and cost. MEPS Components Household Component (HC) Medical Provider Component (MPC) Insurance Component (IC) 1 MEPS Household Component Sample Design Oversampling of policy relevant domains Minorities (Blacks & Hispanics) Minorities Low income Children with activity limitations Adults with functional limitations Predicted high expenditure cases Elderly 1998Minorities 1998-2001 2002+ Minorities, Asians, Low Income 15,000 households; ~35,000 persons 1996 1997 MPC - Purpose Compensate for household nonresponse Accuracy and detail Imputation source Methodological studies MEPS: Pharmacy Component 8000 pharmacies sampled – data on prescribed medicines purchased by households Data obtained: – Medication Name – National Drug Code (NDC) – Quantity Dispensed – Strength and Form – Sources of Payment – Amount Paid by Each Source HC - Purpose Estimates annual health care use and expenditures Provides distributional estimates Supports person and family level analysis Tracks changes in insurance coverage and employment Longitudinal design; linkage to NHIS MPC - Targeted Sample All hospitals and associated physicians All officeoffice-based physicians All home health agencies All pharmacies IC - Purpose Availability of health insurance Access to health insurance Cost of health insurance Benefit and payment provisions of private health insurance 2 IC - Sample 30,000 establishments: derived from Census Bureau frame Supports national and state estimates Employers linked to HC sample Data released in tabular form on MEPS website Recent MEPS Enhancements Supports state estimates: Direct state level estimates of cost, coverage and use for the largest states. Supports metro area estimates: Direct MSA level estimates of cost, coverage and use for the largest metropolitan areas. MEPS CAPI upgrade: Movement to Windows Based Computer Assisted Personal Interview System (CAPI). Recent Collaborations CDC, Chronic Disease Directors and Nat’ Nat’l Pharmaceutical Council Effort focused on the burden and costs of chronic disease. Consortium recommended adoption of the MEPS to quantify medical costs for high prevalence chronic diseases. CMS National Health Care Expenditure Estimates and Sources of Payment Reconciliation: MEPS and the National Health Accounts Recent Collaborations Fast turn-around estimates of expenditures for selected conditions for Report to Congress Technical assistance to Congressional Research Service on insurance issues Collaboration with Treasury Department on analyses of Health Savings Accounts Serve on HHS Research Coordinating Council work group on estimating the number of uninsured DHHS Data Council AHRQ DHHS Data Council CoCo-Chair Options for improving Departmental data capacity for analyses for racial and ethnic minority populations Enhancements to the analytic capacity and policy relevance of national, state and local health insurance data Assessment of current HHS data capabilities for prescription drug information; information; plans for future MMA related enhancements for systematic data on prescription drug utilization, costs, expenditures and efficacy MEPS Impact Informs GDP Estimates: MEPS data on premium costs are used to produce estimates of the GDP for the nation. Medicare Modernization Act (MMA): MEPS used to estimate future costs of Rx benefit, detailed estimates of Rx use and expenses for near elderly CDCCDC-NPCNPC-CDDCDD-AHRQ Collaboration: Collaboration: MEPS used to estimate the cost of specific chronic diseases. 3 MEPS Impact State Reports on Coverage: Coverage: MEPS has been used by numerous States in annual reports and evaluations of their population’ population’s eligibility and enrollment decisions. HRSA state planning grant initiative program: Numerous states have participated in program, using MEPS data to provide reports to their legislatures and governors. • Obesity Cost Calculator: Sponsored by NBGH. MEPS used for cost estimates and now includes a module for estimating return on investment to firms for providing bariatric surgery benefits. Maryland Health Care Commission Report using the MEPS IC MEPS Informs Consumers’ Consumers’ Checkbook Guide to Health Plans Annual Approximate Yearly Cost to You ($) publication Plan Yearly If Your Health If Your Health If Your Health Rates every plan Code Plan Name Premium($) Care Usage Care Usage Care Usage were Low were Average were High available to federal Local HMOs and Point of Service employees and Kaiser Midretirees E32 1510 1650 2350 3890 Atlantic Compares likely JP2 M.D. IPA 1530 1690 2460 4160 cost of various Aetna Health1070 1270 2620 5390 plan options to JN5 St employee Aetna HealthJN2 1570 1760 2880 5330 Hi Estimated 2004 cost Aetna to average family 222 Consumer 1290 1290 3450 7340 of 3 with head Driven under 55 2G2 CareFirst 2280 2480 3530 5850 Knowledge Transfer Efforts: Statistical Methods Yearly Limit on Cost to You Excluding Dental($) 5480 7330 5530 6030 16950 Provide support for statistical and methodological research to improve the quality, efficiency, timeliness of health care surveys Sponsor of Conferences on Health Survey Research Methods OMB’ OMB’s Statistical Policy Conference on Achieving Statistical Quality in a Diverse and Changing Environment OMB’ OMB’s Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology 9530 4 Knowledge Transfer Efforts: Recent Enhancements Continued to speed up the production of estimates In process of redesigning MEPS web site. Expanded the content of the MEPS web site Enhanced MEPS outreach activities Research Uses of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Areas of Research Using MEPS Data Outline Access, use, and quality Expenditures Descriptive data Private and public health insurance Health status and health behaviors Illustrative research findings Microsimulation modeling Statistics and methods Current research – Insurance and expenditures Number of uninsured under age 65 1996– 1996–2004 Number in millions 62.0 62.2 44.5 44.2 31.6 32.1 59.1 60 50 58.5 First half of year Full year 61.7 61.9 61.7 45.7 45.9 31.3 32.0 42.0 42.6 43.8 31.0 28.7 31.5 insurance status, 1996– 1996–2003 Private 62.9 47.0 48.1 40 30 33.7 20 10 Number in millions Any time in year 70 Number of children under age 18, by allall-year 40 39.8 39.7 41.4 42.0 40.4 11.6 11.3 12.4 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source: Center for Financing, Access, and Cost Trends, AHRQ, Household Component of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, 1996–2003 Full-Year and 1996–2004 Point-in-Time Files 2004 Uninsured 38.6 39.4 38.9 14.1 16.1 30 20 10.9 11.8 16.5 10 7.0 7.1 6.5 5.3 6.3 5.6 5.1 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 0 0 Public only 4.6 2003 Source: Center for Financing, Access, and Cost Trends, AHRQ, Household Component of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, 1996–200 Full-Year Files 5 Percent uninsured by age, population under age 65, 2001 to 2002 Uninsured at least one month 60 Percent uninsured by race/ethnicity, population under age 65, 2001 to 2002 Uninsured at least one month Uninsured 24 months 52.6 51.8 50 50 40 40 33.8 31.9 30 Percent Percent Uninsured 24 months 60 56.7 27.0 26.7 21.1 20 16.8 11.4 10 27.6 27.2 23.8 20 15.8 9.9 34.7 34.4 30 10.3 8.2 5.4 13.5 9.4 10 8.1 6.9 0 0 Total Under 18 18-24 25-29 30-34 35-54 Hispanic 55-64 Rhoades, J. A. The LongLong-Term Uninsured in America, 2001 to 2002: Estimates for the U.S. Population under Age 65. Statistical Brief #67. January 2005. Agency for Healthcare Research Research and Quality, Rockville, MD. http://www.meps.ahrq.gov/papers/st67/stat67.pdf Health Insurance Premiums Employee/Employer Contributions for Single Coverage 1996 - 2002 2002 $565 2001 $498 2000 $450 1999 $420 1998 $383 $2,624 $2,391 $2,205 $1,905 $1,791 1997 $320 $1,731 1996 $342 $1,650 $0 $1,000 Employee Contribution Employer Contribution $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 Premiums increased 10.4% & employee contributions increased 13.5% over 2001, continuing the trend from previous years. AHRQ MEPS Insurance Component Index to Tables www.meps.ahrq.gov/Data_Pub/IC_Tables.htm Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Asian, Pacific Islanders Non-Hispanic Other Rhoades, J. A. The LongLong-Term Uninsured in America, 2001 to 2002: Estimates for the U.S. Population under Age 65. Statistical Brief #67. January 2005. Agency for Healthcare Research Research and Quality, Rockville, MD. http://www.meps.ahrq.gov/papers/st67/stat67.pdf Health Insurance Premiums Employee/Employer Contributions for Family Coverage 1996 - 2002 2002 $6,482 $1,987 $5,768 2001 $1,741 2000 $1,614 1999 $1,438 1998 $1,382 1997 $1,305 1996 $1,275 $0 $5,158 Employee Contribution Employer Contribution $4,620 $4,208 $4,027 $3,679 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 Premiums increased 12.8% and employee contributions increased 14.1% over 2001, continuing the trend from previous years. AHRQ MEPS Insurance Component Index to Tables www.meps.ahrq.gov/Data_Pub/IC_Tables.htm Distribution of Health Expenses by Source of Payment, 2002 Total = $810.7 Billion 8% 11% 40% 19% Private Medicare Out-of-pocket Medicaid Other 22% Source: Center for Financing, Access and Cost Trends, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, 2002. 6 Distribution of Health Expenses by Type of Service, 2002 4% 2% Median and average medical expenses per person, 2002 $3,302 $3,500 8% 32% 19% Inpatient Ambulatory Prescribed Meds Dental Home Health Other $2,813 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 Median Average $1,500 $960 $1,000 $663 $500 $0 Persons with expenditures Per capita expenditures 35% Source: Center for Financing, Access and Cost Trends, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, 2002. Source: Center for Financing, Access and Cost Trends, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, 2002 Concentration of Medical Expenditures 1987, 1996, and 2002 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1987 1996 2002 Top Top Top Top 1% 5% 10% 50% 1% of the population accounts for around 25% of expenses 50% of the population accounts for only 3% of expenses This degree of concentration has been consistent over time Concentration of Expenditures, 2002 97 100 80 80 Percent of Total Expenditures 64 60 49 40 22 20 3 0 Top 1% (>=$35,543) Top 5% (>=$11,487) Top 10% (>=$6,444) Top 20% (>=$3,219) Top 50% (>=$664) Bottom 50% (<$664) Percent of Population Source: Berk and Monheit, “Concentration of Expenditures Revisited,” Health Affairs, March/April 2001, and 2002 MEPS. Conditional Distributions by Percentile for Persistence of Expenditures Persistence of Level of Health Care Expenditures: 1999-2000 60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 Percent (%) 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 90-100% 80-90% 70-80% 60-70% 50-60% 40-50% Expenditure Group 30-40% 2000 20-30% 10-20% 0-10% 10.0 5.0 10 -2 0% 010 % 30 -4 0% Expenditure Group 1999 20 -3 0% 50 -6 0% 40 -5 0% 70 -8 0% 60 -7 0% 90 -1 00 % 80 -9 0% 0.0 Conwell, L. J. and Cohen, J. W. Characteristics of Persons with High Medical Expenditures in the U.S. Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population, 2002. Statistical Brief #73. March 2005. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Rockville, Md. http://www.meps.ahrq.gov/papers/st73/stat73.pdf http://www.meps.ahrq.gov/papers/st73/stat73.pdf Factors for Models Demographic characteristics: Age; sex; race/ethnicity; marital status; region; MSA classification Health status measures: health status; limitations in activity Health insurance coverage: full year insured; part year insured; uninsured Health conditions: Diagnosis of arthritis; cancer; cerebrovascular disease; diabetes; heart disease; high blood pressure Accidental events: poisoning; trauma Utilization measures: inpatient events; ambulatory visits; number of prescribed medicine purchases Expenditure measures: total health care spending 7 Factors Associated With the Prediction of High Levels of Medical Expenditures Predictive Models Prior Year Characteristics High level of prior year medical expenditures Age (elderly) Family size (single) Health status (poor) Family income (high) Activity limitation High use of Rx and office based Dr. visits Presence of either COPD or infectious disease Model 1: Logistic Model with prior year’ year’s medical expenditures and precursor information (t(t-1). (Y=1 top 10% in $s; 0 otherwise) Model 2: Logistic Model with prior year’ year’s medical expenditures (t(t-1) and precursor information (t(t-1 and tt-2). Sensitivity and Specificity of Model 1 Actual High Expenditure Classification in 2001 High Expenditure in 20012001-top decile Not High Expenditure in 2001 Sensitivity and Specificity of Model 2 Predicted as High ExpenditureExpenditure2000 Top Decile Not Predicted as High Total ExpenditureExpenditureNot in Top Decile Actual High Expenditure Classification in 2001 Predicted as High ExpenditureExpenditure2000 Top Decile Not Predicted as High ExpenditureExpenditureNot in Top Decile 49.9% True + 50.1% False -- 1,013 (10.0 %) 49.3% True + 50.7% False -- 1,013 (10.0 %) 5.6% False + 94.4% True -- 9,116 (90.0 %) High Expenditure in 20012001-top decile Not High Expenditure in 2001 5.6% False + 94.4% True -- 9,116 (90.0 %) Total 10,129 Total OutOut-ofof-pocket Expenses as a Percent of Family Income, 2002 Total 10,129 Changes in Percent Uninsured for Children, 197719772001 35 34 30 Percent 25 18 20 Top 5% Bottom 50% 15 10 5 Percent Uninsured 25 20 15 10 5 3 5 0 0 >10% >20% Conwell, L. J. and Cohen, J. W. Characteristics of Persons with High Medical Expenditures in the U.S. Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population, 2002. Statistical Brief #73. March 2005. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Rockville, Md. http://www.meps.ahrq.gov/papers/st73/stat73.pdf http://www.meps.ahrq.gov/papers/st73/stat73.pdf 1977 1987 First part of year 1997 Entire year 2001 Any time during year P. Cunningham and J. Kirby, “Children’s Health Coverage: A Quarter-Century Of Change,” Health Affairs, Sept/Oct 2004 8 TakeTake-Up Rates among Children Eligible for Public Coverage, 19961996-2002 100 80 60 40 20 0 80 80 77 61 60 44 Mcd-welfare elig Mcd-poverty expans 1996 (1998 SCHIP) SCHIP 2002 Between 1996 (1998 for SCHIP) and 2002, there was a dramatic increase in enrollment among children eligible for Medicaid and SCHIP. TSelden, JHudson, JBanthin, “Tracking Changes in Eligibility and Coverage among Children, 1996-2002,” Health Affairs 23(5):39-50, September/October 2004. Take Up of Dependent Coverage Logit analysis of taketake-up of any coverage and family coverage: – Cost of coverage matters. – So does Medicaid eligibility of family members. – Income also a factor, but not a large effect. Results suggest declining dependent coverage related to: – OutOut-ofof-pocket premium costs for such coverage – Medicaid eligibility of family members Source: Monheit and Vistness, Vistness, The Demand for Dependent Health Insurance: How Important is the Cost of Family Coverage? Journal of Health Economics, forthcoming. MEPS: Prescription Drugs Increase as Percent of Total Health Expenses, 1996 -2002 EmployerEmployer-Sponsored Health Insurance Offers 80 % of Estabs that Offer Health Insurance Percent of Establishments 70 % of Estabs with Health Insurance that Offer 1 Plan 60 6% 3% 4% 2% 32% % of Estabs with Health Insurance that Offer >1 Plan 50 8% 8% 38% 40 19% 13% 30 20 Inpatient Ambulatory Prescribed Meds Dental Home Health Other 10 33% 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 35% 2002 Year Zawacki and Taylor, “Fully Paid Employer Provided Health Insurance: Trends in Benefits Benefits Over Time,” Time,” Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, 2005. 1996 2002 Source: Center for Financing, Access and Cost Trends, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, 1996 and 2002 Recent Publications CFACT staff – More than 50 publications in 20042004-05 – Dedicated journal issues External users – – – – Identified more than 70 articles in 20042004-05 Prescription drug costs and use Expenditures and obesity Costs of covering the uninsured 9 Forthcoming AHRQ Sponsored Medical Care Supplement Knowledge Transfer Efforts: Health Services Research Forthcoming AHRQ Sponsored Medical Care Supplement on “Trends in Medical Care Costs, Coverage, Use and Access: Research Findings from the MEPS” “Trends in Medical Care Costs, Coverage, Use and Access: Research Findings from the MEPS” z z z z z z What Happens When Workers Fail to Take up EmploymentEmploymentRelated Health Insurance? What Drives Health Insurance Options at the Workplace? Evidence from 19971997-2002 MEPS Employer Data Access to Care and Utilization among Children, the Effect of Public and Private Coverage Trends in Medicaid Prescription Drug Expenditures Children and Antibiotics: Analysis of Reduced Use z z z The Utility of Extended Longitudinal Profiles in Predicting Future Future Health Care Expenditures Using the SFSF-12 Health Status Measure to Predict Medical Expenditures Explaining Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Health Care Reports of Fewer Activity Limitations: Recovery, Survey Fatigue, or Switching Respondent? Examples of Current InInHouse Research AHRQ Working Paper Series Changes in treatment for mental health services The effects of direct to consumer advertising on prescription drug use and expenses Health status and persistence of expenditures Identifying factors accounting for disparities in access and use MEPS Public Use Data Methods of Dissemination MEPS web site – www.meps.ahrq.gov AHRQ clearinghouse MEPS Data Products and Dissemination – CDCD-ROM – 800800-358358-9295 Questions? – MEPSPD@ahrq.gov 10 MEPS Mailing List/List Server WWW.MEPS.AHRQ.GOV Mailing List/List Server z click on “Mail List/List Server” Server” from Web site z both receive ee-mail notices of data and publications released on the Web z List Server allows for interactive exchange of ideas and information MEPS Data Product Information MEPS Data Products Types of Products Publications (Findings, Methods, Upcoming Data Releases MEPS Data Center Chartbooks) Stat Briefs OnOn-line tables MEPSMEPS-NET MicroMicro-data files – Public use – Data Center Percentage of adults age 18 and older receiving urgent care when needed, 2000– 2000–2002 Recent Statistical Briefs always usually sometimes/never 100% Access to Urgent Medical Care Among Adults 18 and Older 20002000-2002, Janet Greenblatt and Michelle Roberts 80% 40% Antidepressant Use Trends 19971997-2002, Marie Stagnitti 16.7 14.9 15.4 29.2 28.0 27.1 54.1 57.1 57.5 2000 2001 2002 60% 20% Five Most Costly Medical Conditions 19971997-2002, Gary Olin and Jeffrey Rhoades 0% 11 Percent of U.S. civilian noninstitutionalized population with at least one antidepressant prescribed medicine purchase, by sex, 1997 and 2002 2002 Percent 11.4 10 7.4 5.4 5 3.8 0 Expenditures (in thousands of 2002 dollars) 1997 15 Expenditures for the five most expensive conditions, 1997 and 2002 1997 $70,002 $67,621 $60,000 $55,423 $53,748 $55,834 $48,425 $47,508 $40,000 $45,263 $36,195 $35,272 $20,000 $0 Heart conditions Male 2002 $80,000 Cancer Trauma Mental disorders Pulmonary conditions Female An Example of a Recent Chart book Average number of ambulatory care visits by type of metro area Average number of ambulatory care visits by age group 12 10.9 10.3 10 Health Care in Urban and Rural Areas Combined Years 19981998-2000, Sharon Larson and Amy Taylor 9.9 8 6.3 6 6.3 Metro Near-metro Near-rural Rural 6.0 5.5 5.1 4 2 0 Under age 65 Age 65 and over Source: pooled 1998-2000 MEPS HC Data Example of Recent Findings Trends in Children’ Children’s Antibiotic Use: 19961996-2001, Ed Miller and Bill Carroll Antibiotic Use of Children 14 and Under 19961996-2001 1996 1997 Population size 59.2 59.8 39.0 33.7 59.8 2001 61.0 60.6 60.6 28.9 28.6 29.0 0.6 2.0 0.5 1.9 0.5 1.9 Percent Percent of kids w/antibiotics Avg number of antibiotic prescriptions: 1998 1999 2000 Number in millions All kids Kids w/ any antibiotic use 0.9 2.4 30.6 Number 0.7 2.1 0.6 1.9 12 Recent and Upcoming MEPS Data Releases 2003 Use File - Including Quality Variables (May 2005) 2003 Jobs file (May 2005) 2003 NHIS Link file (May 2005) More Upcoming Data Releases 2003 Event files (September(September-November 2005) Panel 7 Longitudinal Weight ( January 2006) 2003 Conditions (December 2005) 2003 Use and Expenditures (December 2005) 2004 Insurance File (July 2005) 2004 IC Tables (July 2005) MEPS Tables Compendia MEPSMEPS-HC Tables Compendia Sets of Static tables with flexibility to redefine categories Full year tables for expenditures First part of year tables for insurance coverage Expenditure by Condition Tables (people, events, and total expenditures by site of service) 13 MEPSMEPS-net MEPSnet An onon-line interactive statistical computer system Provides immediate access to data in a nonnon-programming environment MEPSnet is a set of statistical tools – MEPSnet/HC – MEPSnet/IC MEPSMEPS-net HC MEPSnet/IC Currently has the capacity to produce use, expenditure, source of payment and health insurance estimates for all years (including standard errors) Plans to add Access data in 2005 Interactive WebWeb-based tool provides national, and StateState-byby-State, and public sector insurance data in tabular format 14 MEPSnet IC Interactive Data Tool StepStep-byby-Step search for estimates. Estimates shown for all years available. Graphical display of yearyear-toto-year trend with twotwo-standard deviation error bars displayed. Links back to table from which data derived. ADC Facilities Secure room Terminal connected to secure LAN SAS, STATA, GAUSS, Stat Transfer, SUDAAN, Limdep, EQS software available, and others upon request Limited staff support by people who know: – the data – the confidentiality issues – the software Data Center Fees User fee of $150.00 for approved projects to cover technical assistance, simple file construction, and/or up 2 hours of programming support from data contractor (additional programming support available at cost of 80.00/hr) User fee waived for fullfull-time students AHRQ Data Center Provides researchers access to nonnon- public use MEPS data (except directly identifiable information); Mode of data analysis – on a secure LAN at AHRQ, Rockville – task order agreement with data contractor – combinations of both. Application And Review Process Application procedures are on the MEPS web site Submit proposal to data center coordinator Review within 1 week for feasibility, and data availability Internal review board (IRB) review required ADC Procedures May bring data in, but not out Access only to data needed for approved project Tabular data will be reviewed for confidentiality Only approved tables can leave the Center Center will store data files, foreign merge files, and all outputs needed for replication 15 Limited Remote Access Once you have an established data center project, and have worked on site to develop and debug programs, jobs may be submitted to our Data Center Supervisor to run. OutOut-put will be reviewed for confidentiality and mailed to you. Available for Data Center Projects 1996 Nursing Home Data Linked HC - Secondary Data (full geogeo- coding for 1996, 1997 , 20002000- 2002; FIPS codes for other years) NonNon-identifiable MPC data Confidential Data Available for Data Projects Fully specified industry/occupation codes Imputed NDC codes Continuous poverty measure Linked HCHC-IC Data 16