The IMPACTS project –
Producing policy relevant science
for abating the Acid rain problem
Rolf D. Vogt
University of Oslo
With slides borrowed from here and there…
The European
starting point
1960-1970: Large scale fish death
reported in lakes and rivers in Norway
and Sweden (fishkill episodes were
reported in salmon rivers in Southern
Norway already in 1900-1920)
1.6
1.4
S dep (g/m2)
1.2
1980s:
Severe dieback
of forest were
reported in
central Europe
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
70
1970
1990
2010
2030
Western Germany
The UN ECE Convention on
Long-range Transboundary
Air Pollution
Ratified in 1979
30 European countries,
USA and Canada participated
Monitoring programs under the Convention:
EMEP (Air and Precipitation)
UN-ICP-Waters
UN-ICP-Forest
UN-ICP-Integrated Monitoring
Emission reduction protocols developed as
more knowledge was acquired
from the monitoring programs
1985 Helsinki:
1988 Sophia:
1994 Oslo:
Sulphur, flat percent reduction
NOx, flat percent reduction
Sulphur, effect based (critical loads)
1999 Gothenburg: Multi-pollutant Multi-effects:
Acidification
Eutrofication
Ozone
EMEP monitoring program
ICP-Water monitoring program
ICP-Forest monitoring program
Declining Sulphur
deposition
Declining
Sulphur
deposition
• 60 % reduction in emissions
• 40 – 80 % reduction in deposition
S-deposition in southern Norway
1.6
1.4
S dep (g/m2)
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
Extent of critical load Exceedance have
decreased
Exceedance
(meq/m2/yr)
Acid Rain in China
Primary energy sources in 2003
30
Historic development in SO2 emissions
Hydro
Nuclear 5 %
1%
25
Oil
23 %
million tons
20
Natural Gas
3%
15
10
5
0
1900
Coal
68 %
1920
1940
1960
Data from 1990 to 2003 from (SEPA, 2004);
estimates from before 1990 from (Lefohn, et al., 1999)
1980
2000
(BP, 2004)
“十五”末期（2005年）酸雨分布
Acid rain map by 2005
Yu Fang, 2007
10年中国环境保护投资的变化趋势
Environmental Investment
in China over the last 10 years
Yu Fang, 2007
2004年大气污染经济损失
Air pollution cost of China in
2004
Yu Fang, 2007
• National air pollution cost in 2004
is estimated to be about 220 billion yuan
Project reasoning
What does China need
that Norwegians are especially good at?
• Integrated environmental monitoring
and research!
• > 30 years of lessons learned
• Last 16 years also in China
• Opportunity of doing it right the first time around
• Successful scientific interdisciplinary cooperation
• Modelling
• Multieffect studies
• From science to policy (effect based emission reduction strategy)
Differences China - Europe
•
•
•
•
•
Different deposition
Older soils
Different climate
Steep topography（地形）
Different biota
• Existing knowledge
need to be adapted
to Chinese conditions
• Need an integrated monitoring
programme
Integrated
Monitoring（监测）
Program on
Acidification of
Chinese
Terrestrial（陆生）
Systems
Aim and Approach
目标和手段
• Transfer the Tools of the trade
needed to improve the information basis
for the Chinese authorities to prepare and implement a
cost-efficient environmental policy 控制酸雨污染 的损益分析
on the reduction of the effects of acid rain
•
Conducting Critical Load 临界负荷 assessment
adapted to Chinese environmental conditions
• Need an integrated monitoring research programme 综合观测
– Identify key processes controlling the composition of water
when passing though acid sensitive watersheds 酸化机理
» Adapt simulation and prediction models to Chinese environmental conditions
Establish dose-response relationships of the soils
by use of habituated prediction models 建立符合中国的酸化临界模型
– Identify acid sensitive species and
key parameters explaining variation in vegetation 确立敏感物种
» Assess potential ecological impact
under different scenarios of acid rain deposition 建立酸沉降与环境的响应模式
Integrated Monitoring at
5 acid sensitive IMPACTS sites
雷公山
铁山坪
鹿冲关
TSP,
ChongQing
LCG,
Guizhou
LGS,
Guizhou
蔡家塘
CJT, Hunan
LXH,
GuangDong
流溪河
Integrated
monitoring
Sulfate and nitrogen
deposition
g S per square meter and year
18
Sulfate deposition
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
TSP
CJT
LXH
LCG
LGS
Sudbury Hubbard
1970
Brook
(79-83)
Lysina,
Cz rep.
ca 1980
g N per square meter and year
6
Nitrogen deposition
Nitrate
5
Ammonium
4
3
2
1
0
TSP
CJT
LXH
LCG
LGS
The
Netherlands
Hubbard
Brook
(79-83)
Lysina,
Cz rep.
ca 1980
Calcium deposition and pH
g S per square meter and year
18
Sulfate deposition
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
TSP
CJT
LXH
LCG
LGS
Sudbury Hubbard
1970
Brook
(79-83)
Lysina,
Cz rep.
ca 1980
g Ca per square meter and year
14
g N per square meter and year
6
10
8
6
4
2
0
Nitrogen deposition
Nitrate
5
TSP
Ammonium
4
CJT
LXH
LCG
LGS
3
2
Italy ('95- Hubbard
'99)
Brook
(79-83)
Lysina,
Cz rep.
ca 1980
Sudbury
1970
Lysina,
Cz rep.
ca 1980
1
5.5
0
TSP
CJT
LXH
LCG
LGS
The
Netherlands
Hubbard
Brook
(79-83)
Lysina,
Cz rep.
ca 1980
Precipitation pH
14
5.0
Calcium deposition
12
10
8
4.5
6
pH
g Ca per square meter and year
Calcium deposition
12
4
2
0
TSP
CJT
LXH
LCG
LGS
Italy ('95- Hubbard
'99)
Brook
(79-83)
Lysina,
Cz rep.
ca 1980
4.0
3.5
3.0
TSP
CJT
LXH
LCG
LGS
Hubbard
Brook
(79-83)
Major findings from IMPACTS
主要成果
• Dry deposition larger than wet deposition
某些区域干沉降大于湿沉降
1000
TSP 2002
Sulfate
Ammonium
Nitrate
Calcium
2
meq/m /yr
750
500
250
0
Wet deposition
Total deposition
Major findings from IMPACTS
主要成果
• Up to 50% forest defoliation observed
• Both direct and indirect effects of acid rain
on ecosystems must be considered
Major
findings from
Major
findings
fromIMPACTS
IMPACTS
主要成果
主要成果
• Release of aluminium to potentially toxic levels
某些监测点土壤水铝的浓度达到危害临界
BC
LGS
NH4+
H+
Al
TSP
Al
BC
+
NH4
+
H
• High aluminum
mobilisation at more
acidified site
• Aluminum is
potentially toxic
Major findings from IMPACTS
主要成果
• Model predictions show up to 60% reduction
in S deposition needed to avoid further acidification
Thank you for the attention!