Non Tariff Measures UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development What are Non-Tariff Measures? Non-tariff measures (NTMs) are policy measures, other than ordinary customs tariffs, that can potentially have an economic effect on international trade in goods, changing quantities traded, or prices or both” • Too Broad, thus uninformative! So we need a Classification A SANITARY AND PHYTOSANITARY MEASURES B TECHNICAL BARRIERS TO TRADE C PRE-SHIPMENT INSPECTION AND OTHER FORMALITIES Non Technical Measures D E F G H I J K L M N O CONTINGENT TRADE PROTECTIVE MEASURES NON-AUTOMATIC LICENSING AND QUANTITY CONTROL MEASURES PRICE CONTROL MEASURES, ADDITIONAL TAXES AND CHARGES FINANCE MEASURES MEASURES AFFECTING COMPETITION TRADE-RELATED INVESTMENT MEASURES DISTRIBUTION RESTRICTIONS RESTRICTION ON POST-SALES SERVICES SUBSIDIES GOVERNMENT PROCUREMENT RESTRICTIONS INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RULES OF ORIGIN Export Measures P EXPORT RELATED MEASURES Technical Measures NTM or not? Is there a trade policy behind? YES •Import prohibitions / bans •General or product-specific quotas •Rules of Origin •Sanitary and phyto-sanitary conditions •Determination of eligibility (geographical) •Import licenses •State subsidies, procurement •Export subsidies •Voluntary Export Restraints •Foreign exchange market controls and multiplicity NOT, or maybe not a policy that is implemented for trade purposes… •Misaligned currency •Inadequate infrastructure •Intellectual property laws •Employment law •Occupational safety and health regulation •Corrupt and/or lengthy customs procedures What kind of data do we have? • Old data from – UNCTAD… http://wits.worldbank.org/wits/ – AMAD database • Some type of NTMs are somewhat covered by other databases – – – – Contingent protection (WTO – Bown) Standards (some databases, MRL, USDA) Subsidies (OECD, World Bank) Quotas, TRQ. (ITC) • Fragmentary data from sector studies. • Some NTM data is available for some countries – EU, Japan Who needs this data? Different Researchers - Different Data Needs • “Model” Economist does not care much about the data. – Produces neat models, which cannot be tested for NTMs. • “Chef” Economist takes the data and cooks it. – Does something with whatever data is available – but takes assumptions and calculates standard errors • “Undercover” Economist doesn’t trust other data but his. – Painstakingly observes and collects, but can investigate only one little thing in detail. His results cannot be easily generalized. Lack of data results in, crippled research, often inconclusive or not convincing. Specific results cannot be easily generalized. NO DATA = NO ANALISYS = NO POLICY NTM Data collection - TNT • WHY? Provide free access to the trade and trade policy data – Increase transparency – Facilitate research and analysis – Improve awareness • HOW? • Short term strategy – Consolidate all existing data – Collect data – Make data comparable • Long term strategy – Improve notification mechanisms – Incentivize self sustaining data reporting Use of NTM High Income TBT SPS PSI Quant. Control Price Control TBT Africa SPS PSI Quant. Control Price Control TBT Asia SPS PSI Quant. Control Price Control Latin America TBT SPS PSI Quant. Control Price Control 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 Frequency Index 0.4 0.5 Coverage Ratio 0.6 0.7 Implications for Trade Analysis – NTM often add to the costs of trading • Information and Compliance – These costs are often not equal across countries – May create discrimination • Some countries may benefit relatively to others • Some firms (large, vertically integrated) may benefit more – Often advantages to who has better information and is more cost efficient in complying with NTM. How to measure the impact of NTM on prices and trade costs Impact of some NTMs more easy to quantify than others. Methods include: • Price gaps • Ad Valorem equivalents • Ad hoc studies • These price effects are then used in economic models to assess their impact on welfare, employment etc. NTM trade restrictiveness (AVE) 35.0 30.0 OTRI 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Total Ag. High income Mfg. Total Ag. Mfg. Middle income Tariff Non-Tariff Total Ag. Mfg. Low income What are the purposes of NTM? • • • • Protect consumers / environment (SPS TBT) Regulate domestic markets (Pricing, Licenses) Protect domestic firms (AD, subsidies, quotas) Avoid unintended spillovers (RoO) Many NTM are legitimate and are there to stay (cannot be negotiated away). Still, NTM may have large effects on trade. Not only costs but also benefits • Many NTM have beneficial effect – At least that is the reason they are supposed to be there • Question is how to integrate not only costs but also benefits of NTM in modeling. – Detailed studies on NTM are based on costbenefit analysis Most NTMs are SPS and TBT • Specifics modeling issues – Cost benefit framework – Bilateral effects may vary: • Harmonization • Mutual Recognition – Enforcement / Implementation mechanisms • A lot of devils in the details Thank you