AGRICULTURAL RESOURCES AND S0CIO-ECONIC AFFLUENCE OF OREGON COUNTIES by BARRY RALPH BENSON A RESEARCH PAPER submitted to THE DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE 1975 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction . . . . 1 .................. .. ............ 2 Organization of Research Data . a .. .. . .... Agricultural Resource Indicators . . a .. a 5 IIScope III IV , . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . a a Farmland. . Cro1aa a aa a aa aa . a a , a a . . .... 8 Harvested Cropland i..sis..aalaaasa 9 aa a . a a Irrigated Land Crop Returti a a a a aa a aa a Fa Sales.... ....... Farni Acre 1/alijes . . . a.. aa aa a a a a e a a a a ..a aaa Utilization of Grazing Land . a a a 11 aa a.. 12 a aa . . a . . all .. a 13 .a.aa.. ..,...... 14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. ., .a..a. a..a...a .... Value of Equipment ................... Class I Far'nis V Socio-Economic Affluence Indicators Unemployment a a Poverty Level, aa aa aa aa a a . . a aa a . . aa aa a . a . . . a a . 16 17 ... 18 a 18 a a a 15 . . . 19 Welfare... .a........ ,.a. a... a. ....a..a 20 Migration 21 a a a a a a a . a a a . a a aa a a a aa aa a a Education..... .a ...aa..aaa. a..aa.a .. Income... . a a...., aa aa a 23 Bank Deposits. a a . . VI 7 a a a a a aa a . aa Analysis of County Ranking.. . Rank Group Correlation.... a. . a , a a a a . . . 24 aa a a a a a 24 . a . 26 .... .. 30 Agricultural Resources............. 32 Socio-Economic Affluence........... 37 Correlations of Rank Groups.. . ... . . ... 39 VIIConclusion..... .. ........ ....... .1.S.I 42 VIIIAppendix I . . 1Appendic II . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 . 48 Appendic 111....... ......... ....... . .... 49 I)C Bibliography. . 1 . . . . . . . .. . .. . . . . . 50 LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Figure 1 Distribution of Agricultural Resources by Group Ranked Oregon Counties..................... 33 Figure 2 Distribution of Socio-Economic Affluence by Group Ranked Oregon Counties.. .. .. . .... .... 38 Figure 3 Distribution of Oregon County Rank Group Correlation................................ 40 LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Farmland as a Percent of Total County Area.......... 8 Table 2 Cropland as a Percent of Farmland Table 3 Harvested Cropland as a Percent of Total Cropland ..l0 Table 4 Irrigated Land as a Percent of Cropland ... . .. .. ... 11 Table 5 Crop Return.. . Table 6 UtilizationofGrazingLand........................l3 Table 7 Farm Sales ............. ....... .. .. ........... ..... 14 Table 8 Farm Acre Values.. ....... ........ .... .... ......... 15 Table 9 Class I Farms as a Percent of all Commercial Units. 16 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... ... ....... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 12 . . 17 . . . 19 Table 10 Value of Equipment . Table 11 Unemployment Rate. . . Table 12 Percent of Families with less than $3000 Income.... 20 Table 13 Pt.iblic Assistance. . . . . . . . . . . . Table 14 Migration Rate. . . . . Table 15 Percent of Persons Twenty-Five Years and Older . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 . . . . 22 . . . . . . . . . . . with Twelve or More Years of Education.. . .... 23 24 Table 16 Per Capita Income . Tablel7 PerCapitaBankDeposits...........................25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tablel8 SynthesisofCountyRanks..........................27 Table 19 Ranlc Differences Table 20 Majority Rank Groups of Oregon Counties... ... ...... 31 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 AGRICULTURAL RESOURCES AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC AFFLUENCE OF OREGON COUNTIES ABSTRACT: Limited measures of socio-economic affluence among some Oregon counties reflect deficiency in the availability and development of agricultural resources. Seventeen indicators qualify county census data into comparable relative values. Rank correlation analysis of the relationship between agricultural resources and socio-economic affluence demonstrates a significant correlation coefficient at the 95 percent confidence level. Counties within rank groups correlate positively in 61.1 percent of the cases with distribution primarily in western Oregon counties. KEY WORDS: Correlation, Agricultural resources, Socio-economic affluence, Oregon. INTRODUCTION Agricultural resources and their impact on Oregon are not uniformly distributed throughout the state, and this may be reflected by varying levels of socio-economic affluence among the thirty-six counties. This investigation will delineate the measure and distribution of correlation between the level of socio-economic affluence of Oregon counties, and the 2 availability and development of agricultural resources. SCOPE A problem of this nature is difficult to approach because of the initial incomparability of the variables, the size of the area to be examined, and the physical and economic diversity of the counties. 1 Before the investigation can commence, explanations of the variables within the context of the problem are necessary. Agricultural resources are influenced by the distribution of physical factors including latitude, elevation, topography, climate, soils, and water availability. 2 Agricultural resources, however, are a product of human occupance and endeavors by man to modify and improve the land base through the application of technology. In a given circumstance, an agricultural resource is tied directly to man's ability to develop it and ultimately to it's availability. Where no capability for development exists, there is no agricultural resource. Socio-economic affluence can be defined in most cases as material wealth and abundance. For this problem, it will be concerned with the general well-being of the inhabitants of a county unit. For socio-economic affluence to be usable as a variable for an area as large as a county, the variable must be a measure of the county's average well-being. If there are many factors that indicate that a county is deficient in various areas and markedly affluent in others, and the measures are in similar proportions, then the measures equalize each 3 other and the county can be considered to be average in socioeconomic affluence A simple way to determine the level of availability and development of agricultural resources would be to examine the gross sales of county agricultural products. The gross sales of the counties would be a measure of the magnitude of production of county agricultural products. From this, could be seen which counties are high in production and therefore high in availability and development of agricultural resources. Large agricultural counties such as Umatilla, Marion, and Maiheur would be in the upper levels if they were compared to the remainder of the counties. The smaller counties such as Gilliam, Sherman, and Wheeler, with more limited agricultural resources, would occupy the lower levels. Where a county is large in area, with many agricultural units, it may have an immense volume of sales; but where a county is small in area, with fewer but larger farms and ranches, the gross sales of production may be so small as to make the county appear to be deficient in agricultural resources. A similar analysis could be followed in regard to levels of soda-economic affluence. Total per capita county product could be an indicator of affluence but it would not take into consideration county population distribution, major industrial character, or the nature of the labor force. Per capita county product would not indicate factors which make a county socially and economically affluent nor would it show the manner in which a county is lacking in socio-economic affluence. Most 4 importantly, gross sales of production and per capita county product are not directly comparable because of the diversity of the Oregon economy.6 There are a multitude of possible indicators of availability and development of agricultural resources and levels of socio-economic affluence but the measures, in the raw state, are gross and largely unusable. Each indicator of agricultural resources and socio-economic affluence used in correlation analysis must have the magnitude bias removed so that the indicators are a relative measure of the variable. For the variables to be comparable, it is required that the counties be measured not by the quantity of the agricultural resource or level of socio-economic affluence, but by the quality of the measure. This examination will compare and analyze the counties and their relative value of indicators, not to make a comparison of the county's consequence because of population or area, but to compare and correlate the problem variables by utilizing the counties as a means of measurement.7 Of the many possible indicators of agricultural resources, ten indicators should serve to denote county availability and development. They are arranged in no particular order of importance and for simplicity of operation, all have equal weight. 8 1) Farmland 2) Cropland 3) Harvested cropland 4) Irrigated land 5) Crop return 6) Utilization of pasture and range 7) Farm sales 8) Farm acre values 9) Class I agricultural units 10) Value of equipment The volume of socio-economic affluence indicators is vast but only a relative few can be used. Some representative indicators of the county socio-economic affluence measure includes:9 1) Unemployment rate 2) Families with less than $ 3000 income 3) Welfare payments 4) Migration 5) Education 6) Income 7) Bank deposits ORGANIZATION OF RESEARCH DATA Raw data for agricultural resources and levels of socio- economic affluence indicators represent a vast amount of unmanageable and incomparable information because each indicator has a different form. To make all the counties comparable within each variable, the data must be derived into relative measures. For agricultural resources the relative value measures will include; rates, value per unit, volume per unit, percentages and measures of average county farms. An average county farm is the total amount of the county indicator divided by the number of agricultural units. County size and the number of agricultural units vary widely among the counties, so the counties are comparable in some indicators if the average county farm is used as a measure. 10 In regard to levels of socio-economic affluence, indicators utilizing rates, percentages, and per capita relative values, will place the counties on a more even basis and the magnitude bias will be extirpated. When the variables are reduced to indicators that represent relative values of measures they are still not directly comparable. There are seventeen indicators and thirty-six counties, so there are a total of 612 individual sample points to be used in correlation analysis. This amount of information would be difficult to handle even as relative values, so a system of ranking must be employed to make county data directly comparable and meaningful. The counties are ranked according to their relative value for each indicator with 1 being the highest, and 36 the lowest. Ranking will result in comparable measures that can be used to determine the degree and distribution of correlation between the availability and development of agricultural resources and the level of socio-economic affluence of the counties. After the ranking process, the counties are divided into rank groups according to their position among the counties. Counties with ranks 1-12 are in the upper third rank group; ranks 13-24 are in the middle third group; and ranks 25-36 are 7 Rank groups are used to determine in the lower third group. the distribution of correlation and serve as a basis for cartographic representation. 11 AGRICULTURAL RESOURCE INDICATORS Agricultural resource data are derived into relative measures, but since this examination is qualatative, some factors that distort county data must be dealt with. Relative values of agricultural resources are used for class I-V, or the commercial units only. Of all state agricultural units only 58.5 percent are classified as commercial farms based on the value of farm sales. While this percentage is just more than one-half of the total number of units, their value of production is more than 97.6 percent of the total value of sales for all farms and ranches in Oregon. Part-time, retired farmers, and abnormal farms do not make a sufficient impact on Oregon agriculture to warrent their inclusion in this investigation. 12 Farmland Farmland as a percentage of the total county area gives a good indication of the availability of land for agriculture in the county ( Table 1 ). More than 51.8 percent of the land in Oregon is in Federal ownership, with additional land being owned by state and local governments. Much of the Federal land is leased as range to stockmen but is not included in the indicator of availability of agricultural resources. 13 TABLE 1.-- FARMLAND AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL COUNTY AREA County Farmland Acres Baker Benton 782592 101159 141082 14612 53712 166166 964590 80363 134637 397798 748205 1022095 1357207 24847 270008 486314 28991 659197 Clackarnas Clatsop Columbia Coos Crook Curry Deschutes Douglas Gilliam Grant Harney Hood River Jackson Jefferson Josephine Klamath County Percent of County Area Percent of County Area 875796 200831 31945 325480 1324344 Malheur 254237 Marion 992792 Morrow 30966 Multnomah 183218 Polk 460728 Sherman 42457 Tillamook 1274140 Umatilla 458009 Union 649037 Wallowa 881004 Wasco Washington 137546 707652 Wheeler 170851 Yarnhill Lake Lane Lincoln Linn 39.9 237 11.7 3.0 13.1 16.2 50.8 7.7 6.9 12.3 96.8 35.3 20.8 7.4 15.0 42.4 2.8 17.3 Farmland Acres / 16.6 7.0 5.0 22.3 21.0 36.0 75.3 11.4 38.9 86.7 6.0 61.7 23.6 31.9 57.8 30.0 64.8 37.6 Rank Groups upper group 1 Gilliam 2 Sherman 3 Morrow 4 Wheeler 5 Umatilla 6 Wasco 7 Crook 8 Jefferson 9 Baker 10 Polk 11 Yarnhill 12 Marion middle group 13 Grant 14 Wallowa 15 Washington 16 Bentori 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Union Linn Malheur Harney Klamath Lake Coos Jackson lower group 25 Columbia 26 Douglas 27 Clackamas 28 Multnomah 29 Curry 30 Hood River 31 Lane 32 Deschutes 33 Tillamook 34 Lincoln 35 Clatsop 36 Josephine Source: 1969 Census of Agriculture Cropl and Cropland as a percentage of farmland is an indicator of the development of available county farmland and in part, a measure of land capability ( Table 2 ). Harvested cropland and cropland used for pasture are included. TABLE 2. - - CROPLAND AS A PERCENT OF FARMLAND County Cropland Acres Baker Benton Clackamas Clatsop Columbia 145133 62603 87525 6585 22340 38054 104560 13536 61118 85283 266020 73286 196887 17549 60338 98446 14798 237784 Coos Crook Curry Deschutes Douglas Gilliam Grant Harney Hood River Jackson Jefferson Josephine Kiamath Percent of Farmland 185 61.9 62.0 45.0 41.6 22.9 10.8 16.8 45.4 21.4 35.6 7.2 14.5 70.6 22.4 20.2 50.6 36.0 Cropland Acres County 166790 107931 9290 241216 257765 199802 436483 Morrow 22432 Multnomah 127361 Polk 284797 Sherman 21574 Tillamook 614959 Umatilla 169604 Union 122127 Wallowa 228299 Wasco Washington 106331 35507 Wheeler 115605 Yarnhill Lake Lane Lincoln Linn Maiheur Marion Percent of Farmland 19.0 53.7 29.0 74.1 19.5 78.6 44.0 72.4 69.5 61.8 50.8 48.3 37.0 18.8 25.9 77.3 5.0 67.7 Rank Groups upper group 1 Marion 2 Washington 3 Linn 4 Multnomah 5 Hood River 6 Polk 7 Yamhill 8 Clackamas 9 Benton 10 Sherman 11 Lane 12 Tillamook middle group lower group 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Josephine Umatilla Deschutes Clatsop Morrow Columbia Union Klamath 21 Gilliani 22 Lincoln 23 Wasco 24 Coos Jackson Douglas Jefferson Maiheur Lake Wallowa Baker Curry Harney Crook Grant Wheeler Source: 1969 Census of Agriculture Harvested Cropland Harvested cropland as a percentage of total cropland indicates a measure of utilization and resource development ( Table 3 ). Returns from harvested cropland are greater than from cropland used for pasture, so the counties with the largest percentage of 10 cropland harvested will have the higher ranks, and the counties where cropland is used mçst1y for pasture, will have a lower rank. TABLE 3. - - HARVESTED County ROPLAND AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL CROPLAND Cropi and Pecent of Crpland 79233 47075 54516 2622 12090 12389 51219 2363 26213 28135 115497 50346 122179 15712 35009 64337 6379 133334 4.6 5.2 2.4 9.8 4.1 2.6 9.0 7.5 2.9 3.0 3.4 8.7 2.4 9.5 8.0 2.4 3.1 6.1 Harvested Baker Benton Clackamas Clatsop Columbia Coos Crook Curry Deschutes Douglas Gilliam Grant Harney Hood River Jackson Jefferson Josephine Klainath Harvested Cropland County Lake Lane Lincoln Linn Malheur Marion Morrow Multnomah Polk Sherman Tillamook Umatilla Union Wallowa Wasco Washington Wheeler Yamhill 95473 70704 3414 195123 181554 148122 181974 15313 95185 128527 5769 351349 99490 61407 101700 83639 15950 87248 Groups upper group 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 Hood River Linn Washington Yamhill Benton Polk Marion Maiheur Grant Multnomah Lane Clackamas Harney Jefferson miIdle group 15 Union 16 Jackson 17 Lake 18 Umatilla 19 Kiamath 20 Baker 21 Columbia 22 Wheeler 23 Crook 24 Sherman Source: 1969 Censusof Agriculture lower group 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Wallowa Wasco Gilliam Josephine Deschutes Morrow Clatsop Lincoln Douglas Coos Tillamook Curry Percent of Cropland 57.2 65.5 36.8 81.0 70.4 74.1 41.7 68.3 74.8 45.0 26.7 57.1 58.7 44.6 44.7 78.7 50.2 75.5 11 Irrigated Land The amount of land tIat is irrigated by all methods is an nd development of agricultural resources indicator of management ( Table 4 ). In the summer months, all Oregon counties require irrigation for some crop depending on the type of agriculture. TABLE 4.-- IRRIGATED LAND AS A PERCENT OF CROPLAND County Baker Benton Clackamas Clatsop Columbia Coos Crook Curry Deschutes Douglas Gilliarn Grant Harney Hood River Jackson Jefferson Josephine Kiamath Irrigated Acres $rcent 106811 13475 11862 447 5884 7397 67512 2604 34046 9988 5232 40640 121443 16073 40781 53219 9928 192694 73.6 21.5 13.6 6.8 26.3 19.4 64.6 19.2 55.7 11.7 2.0 55.5 61.7 91.6 67.7 54.1 67.1 81.0 Rnk upper group 1 Hood River 2 Lake 3 Malheur 4 Kiamath 5 Baker 6 Jackson 7 Josephine 8 Crook 9 Harney 10 Deschutes 11 Grant 12 Jefferson of Irrigated Acres County Ciopland Lake Lane Lincoln Linn Malheur Marion Marrow Multnomah Polk Sherman Tillamook Umatilla Union Wallowa Wasco Washington Wheeler Yamhill 139348 26316 881 26579 211052 62658 20177 5555 13975 1486 3548 68515 39409 38215 21239 12884 14997 19573 Groups middle group 13 Wheeler 14 Marion 15' Wallowa 16, Columbia 17 Multnomah 18 Lane 19 Union 20, Benton 21 22 23 24 Percent of Cropland Coos Curry Yamhill Tillamook Source: 1969 Census of Agriculture lower group 25 Clackamas 26 Washington 27 Douglas 28 Umatilla 29 Polk 30 Linn 31 Lincoln 32 Wasco 33 Clatsop 34 Morrow 35 Gilliam 36 Sherman 83.6 24.4 9.5 11.0 81.9 31.4 4.6 24.8 11.0 0.5 16.5 11.1 23.2 31.3 9.3 12.1 42.2 16.9 12 Crop Return Crop return as an indicator denotes dry tons per acre of alfalfa, a crop ubiquitous to all the counties ( Table 5 ). Tons per acre is a measure of resource management and development. Crop return also serves as a measure of overall land capability. TABLE 5.-- CROP RETURN Tons/Acre 2.98 4.02 3.60 1.83 3.39 County Acres Tons Baker Benton Clackamas Clatsop Columbia Coos Crook 32556 1531 3721 1819 1146 371 25097 97164 6145 13365 3332 3891 561 75705 Curry Deschutes Douglas Gilliam Grant Harney Hood River Jackson Jefferson Josephine Kiamath 12 36 18453 48585 3160 8898 2946 10688 10018 24891 16093 40645 1814 512 6057 18951 5964 21835 705 2706 34687 124842 1.51 2.93 3.00 2.63 2.82 3.62 2.48 2.53 3.54 3.12 3.66 3.83 3.59 Acres Tons County 20447 54920 Lake 2614 10555 Lane 150 262 Lincoln 5097 1537 Linn 46739 177350 Malheur 4620 16982 Marion 38824 9687 Morrow 4872 Multnomah 1496 2866 8919 Polk 1857 741 Sherman 6804 Tillamook 2734 Umatilla 21681 93216 22661 48982 Union 19417 50542 Wallowa 10917 33297 Wasco Washington 5817 21947 Wheeler 4753 11995 3999 15965 Yamhill Rank Groups upper group 1 Umatilla 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Lane Benton Morrow Yamhill Josephine Malheur Washington Marion Jefferson Gilliam Clackamas middle group 13 Klamath 25 Lake Columbia Linn Multnomah Jackson Polk Wasco Curry Baker Crook Douglas 26 27 28 29 30 31 31 33 34 35 36 14 Hood River 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 lower group Source: 1969 Census of Agriculture Deschutes Wallowa Harney Wheeler Sherman Grant Tillamook Union Clatsop Lincoln Coos Tons/Acre 2.69 4.04 1.75 3.31 3.79 3.67 4.00 3.25 3.11 2.51 2.48 4.29 2.16 2.60 3.05 3.77 2.52 3.99 13 F Utilization of Grazing Land Utilization of pasture and rangeland by cattle is a measure of resource development ( Table 6 ). Other livestock are not considered because of lesser impact as compared to cattle. Cattle require relatively high quality pasture and range, so the utilization indicator is a measure of land quality. TABLE 6.-- UTILIZATION OF PASTURE AND RANGELAND BY CATTLE County Acres Baker Benton Clackamas 676913 36327 53004 7925 Clatsop Columbia 30856 108331 Coos Crook 888617 Curry 64639 Deschutes 99719 Douglas 324710 490228 Gilliam Grant 937828 1190090 Harney Hood River 2318 213026 Jackson Jefferson 386948 Josephine 12036 Kianiath 470311 Head Acres County 87275 8757 24925 4125 17765 24767 61135 6652 18806 30675 19110 57246 91048 1644 37586 34465 7742 80577 7.76 3.74 2.13 1.92 1.74 4.37 14.54 9.72 5.30 10.59 25.65 16.38 13.07 1.41 5.67 11.23 1.55 5.84 Lake Lane Acres Head 726161 91956 Lincoln 17440 93536 Linn Maiheur 1079323 48050 Marion Morrow 592218 7215 Multnomah Polk 54173 177929 Sherman Tillamook 28024 Umatilla 662188 290621 Union 541039 Wallowa 651211 Wasco Washington 25424 Wheeler 661573 Yarnhill 48934 74921 24411 4351 25016 160527 26102 26788 5276 13751 9398 23397 89287 32510 51974 27273 19334 21330 15992 Rank Groups upper group 1 Tillamook 2 Washington 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Multnomah Hood River Josephine 13 Polk 25 26 27 28 29 30 Lincoln Linn Deschutes 18 Jackson 19 Klaniath 20 Malheur 17 Columbia Marion Clatsop Clackamas 21 22 23 24 Lane Source: lower group 16 Coos 10 Yamhill 11 Benton 12 middle group 14 15 1969 Umatilla Baker Union Lake Census of Agriculture Curry Douglas Wallowa Jefferson Harney Crook 31 Grant 32 33 34 35 36 Acres Head Head Sherman Wasco Morrow Gilliam Wheeler 9.69 3.77 4.01 4.14 6.72 1.84 22.11 1.37 3.99 18.93 1.20 7.42 8.94 10.41 23.88 1.31 31.02 3.06 14 Farm Sales Farm sales by an average county farm is an indicator of the average measure of development and production of county farm units and this reflects their resources ( Table 7 ). Farm sales in this case compares an average farm in a given county to an average farm in another county. The factors of magnitude of production and county area are eliminated. TABLE 7.-- FARM SALES County Market Value of Production $ Baker Benton Clackamas Clatsop Columbia Coos Crook Curry Des chutes Douglas Gilliam Grant Harney Hood River Jacks on Jeffers on Josephine Klaniath Market Value of Production $ County Lake Lane Lincoln Linn Malheur Marion 25941 29771 26331 20206 17648 17197 39562 21095 22987 12790 39862 29909 34559 33418 34867 63587 22166 43416 Morrow Multnornah Polk Sherman Till amook Umatilla Union Wallowa Was Co Washington Wheeler Yanthill 37899 26982 13841 32275 37204 28430 34008 37465 23325 24252 25205 61915 24473 23539 26065 23666 25841 22967 Rank Groups upper group 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Jefferson Umatilla Klamath Gilliam Crook Lake Multnomah Maiheur Harney Jackson Morrow Hood River middle group 13 Linn 14 Grant 15 Benton 16 Marion 17 Lane 18 Clackamas 19 Wasco 20 Baker 21 Wheeler 22 Tillamook 23 Union 24 Sherman Source: 1969 Census of Agriculture lower group 25 26 27 28 Washington Wallowa Polk Deschutes 29 Yanthill 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Josephine Curry Clatsop Columbia Coos Lincoln Douglas 15 Farm Acre Values Farm acre values are a measure of resource development and represent the market value per acre of an average county farm Urban counties have high acre values because of ( Table 8 ). pressure from urban sprawl, but, these areas also tend to be highly developed. Large rural counties with vast farms have low values per acre. TABLE 8.-- FARM ACRE VALUES County Value per Acre (Dollars) Baker Benton Clackamas Clatsop Columbia Coos Crook Curry Deschutes Douglas Gilliani Grant Harney Hood River Jackson Jefferson Josephine Kianiath 70.42 403.23 808.01 377.64 507.24 203.53 54.01 172.37 268.76 174.08 62.57 42.72 38.97 1315.75 315.99 101.93 469.57 170.56 County Lake. Lane Lincoln Linn Maiheur Marion Morrow Multnomah Polk Sherman Tillamook Umatilla Union Wallowa Wasco Washington Wheeler Yamhill Value per Acre (Dollars) 56.39 529.87 320.92 377.59 96.91 600.98 65.92 1635.65 369.80 96.47 564.22 139.03 135.31 77.74 76.66 806.86 30.50 471.16 Rank Groups upper group 1 Multnomah 2 Hood River 3 Clackamas 4 Washington 5 Marion 6 Tillamook 7 Lane 8 Columbia 9 Yamhill 10 Josephine 11 Benton 12 Clatsop middle group 13 Linn 14 Polk 15 Lincoln 16 Jackson 17 Deschutes 18 Coos 19 Douglas 20 Curry 21 Klamath 22 Umatilla 23 Union 24 Jefferson Source: 1969 Census of Agriculture lower group 25 Sherman 26 Malheur 27 Wallowa 28 Wasco 29 Baker 30 Morrow 31 Gilliam 32 Crook 33 Lake 34 Grant 35 Harney 36 Wheeler 16 Class I Farms The percent of class I farms of all commercial units serves as an indication of the degree to which farmers and ranchers have developed their own resources ( Table 9 ). TABLE 9.-- CLASS I FARMS AS A PERCENT OF ALL C1MERCIAL UNITS County Class I Baker Benton Clackamas Clatsop Columbia Coos 77 50 167 15 21 36 51 13 Crook Curry Deschutes 29 36 Douglas 42 Gilliam 42 Grant 58 Harney Hood River 103 86 Jackson 97 Jefferson Josephine 21 Klamath 150 Class I-V % 98 236 424 229 118 277 598 218 218 235 380 497 303 178 623 Class I 17.0 18.9 14.0 15.3 8.9 8.5 22.3 11.0 10.5 6.0 26.3 19.3 24.7 27.1 17.3 32.0 11.8 24.0 483 265 1196 County Lake Lane Lincoln Linn Malheur Marion Morrow Multnomah Polk Sherman Tillamook Umatilla Union Wallowa Wasco Washington Wheeler Yamhill 50 146 9 214 256 320 71 77 97 25 68 182 61 52 80 131 10 115 Class I-V 218 770 115 950 1150 1629 277 344 597 194 344 870 469 344 418 953 90 783 Rank Groups upper group middle group lower group 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Jefferson Gilliam Hood River Morrow Harney Klamath Linn Lake Multnomah Crook Maiheur Umatjlla Tillamook Marion Grant Wasco Lane Benton Jackson Baker Polk Clatsop Wallowa Yamhill Source: 1969 Census of Agriculture Clackamas Washington Union Sherman Wheeler Curry Deschutes Columbia Coos Josephine Lincoln Douglas 22.9 19.0 7.8 22.5 22.3 19.6 25.6 22.4 16.2 12.9 19.8 20.9 13.0 15.1 19.1 13.7 11.1 14.7 17 Value of Equipment To better develop their agricultural resources, farmers must have appropriate equipment that are in good condition and in proportion to the agricultural type of the county. The value of equipment of an average county farm is an indicator of ability to develop available agricultural resources ( Table 10 ). TABLE 10. - - VALUE OF EQUIPMENT County Value of Equipment (Dollars) Baker Benton Clackamas Clatsop Columbia Coos Crook Curry Deschutes Douglas Gilliani Grant Harney Hood River Jackson Jefferson Josephine Kiamath 12798.90 20297.54 9783.67 7912.70 9714.50 9536.40 16748.87 8696.83 10802.51 8782.37 36939.78 13830.31 17407.30 14645.25 12257.50 28881.25 10544.95 21641.89 Value of Equipment (Dollars) County Lake Lane Lincoln Linn Maiheur Marion Morrow Multnomah Polk Sherman Tillamook Umatilla Union Wallowa Wasco Washington Wheeler Yanthill 15924.52 14254.14 8839.28 16998.69 21107.61 15031.32 31178.42 12288.10 15862.53 33803.40 9130.70 23606.52 17329.20 15281.78 17303.49 12188.47 17178.54 14476.61 Rank Groups upper group 1 Gilliani 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Sherman Morrow Jefferson Umatilla Kiamath Maiheur Benton Harney Union Wasco Wheeler middle group 13 Linn 14 Crook 15 Lake 16 Polk 17 Wallowa 18 Marion 19 Hood River 20 Yanihill 21 22 23 24 Lane Grant Baker Multnomah Source: 1969 Census of Agriculture lower group 25 Jackson 26 Washington 27 Deschutes 28 Josephine 29 Clackamas 30 Coos 31 Columbia 32 Tillamook 33 Lincoln 34 Douglas 35 Curry 36 Clatsop SOCIO-ECONc4IC AFFLUENCE INDICATORS The socio-economic affluence of Oregon counties is a measure of the overall well-being of the people. Urbanized counties, where employment opportunities are an attractive force and income levels are high, may have a considerable measure of affluence. This assumption however, does not take into consideration the probability that a small county, with a small population may by socially and economically affluent, and often to such a degree as to rank with the developed urban counties. The veritable well-being of a county is not a function of magnitude of county population or income, but a function of the limiting factors that indicate that the inhabitants of the county are or are not socially and economically affluent. Unemployment The measure of unemployment in a county is the unemployment rate which is the unemployed labor force divided by the total labor force ( Table 11 ). Military personel and persons under sixteen years old are omitted in this measurement as they contribute little to the economy of a county. An un- employment rate that is relatively low indicates positive affluence and has a high rank among the counties. A high rate of unemployment signifies a low level of affluence and therefore a low ranking. TABLE 11.-- UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Labor Force 5690 Baker 29598 Benton Clackamas 67025 11337 Clatsop 10616 Columbia 21492 Coos 4069 Crook 4939 Curry Deschutes 12391 Douglas 26429 782 Gilliam 2751 Grant 3009 Harney Hood River 5417 Jackson 35664 Jefferson 3553 Josephine 12018 18745 Klamath County Unemployed Rate 546 1389 4031 823 803 1513 305 498 836 2345 29 337 233 505 3097 201 1169 1285 9.6 6.7 6.0 7.3 7.6 7.1 7.5 10.1 6.8 8.9 3.7 12.3 7.7 9.3 8.7 5.7 9.7 6.9 County Labor Force Lake Lane Lincoln Linn 2507 84010 9850 26485 8741 56669 1749 240891 13299 Maiheur Marion Morrow Multnomah Polk Sherman Tillamook Umatilla Union Wallowa Wasco Washington Wheeler Yamhill Unemployed 831 6636 17596 7199 2424 7820 67365 762 15710 211 6771 820 2172 398 3866 123 15383 820 24 406 1253 698 263 523 3376 50 1076 Rate 8.4 8.1 8.3 8.2 4.6 6.7 7.0 6.4 6.2 2.9 6.1 7.1 9.7 10.9 6.8 5.0 6.6 6.9 Rank Groups upper group 1 2 3 4 5 6 Sherman Gilliam Maiheur Washington Jefferson Clackamas 7 Tillarnook 8 9 10 11 11 Polk Multnomah Wheeler Benton Marion middle group 13 13 15 15 17 Wasco Deschutes Klamath Yamhill Morrow 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Coos Umatilla Clatsop Crook Columbia Harney Lane lower group 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Linn Lincoln Lake Douglas Jackson Hood River Baker Josephine Union Curry Wallowa Grant Source: 1970 Census of Population Poverty Level The percel)tage of families with less than $3000 annual income is an indicator used to locate counties with concentrations of low income ( Table 12 ). A low percentage among the counties indicates relative positive affluence and a high percent reflects negative affluence.. 20 TABLE 12.-- PERCENT OF FAMILIES WITH LESS THAN $3000 INC4E County Baker Benton Clackamas Clatsop Columbia Percent of Families 16.4 Coos Crook Curry Deschutes Douglas Gilliam Grant Harney Hood River Jackson Jefferson Josephine Kiamath 8.6 6.9 10.1 10.2 8.8 11.5 13.0 12.1 11.7 9.2 8.8 7.5 11.7 11.1 11.8 15.4 9.7 Percent of Families County 12.9 Lake 8.8 Lane 10.4 Lincoln 14.3 Liim 10.5 Maiheur 12.7 Marion 10.5 Morrow 8.1 Multnomah 11.4 Polk 11.2 Sherman 12.2 Tillamook 10.6 Umatilla 9.8 Union 14.2 Wallowa 8.7 Wasco 5.1 Washington 12.6 Wheeler 11.3 Yamhill Rank Groups upper group middle group lower group 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 7 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 16 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Douglas 26 Jefferson 27 Deschutes Washington Clackamas Harney Multnomah Benton Wasco Coos Grant Lane Gilliam Klamath Union Clatsop Columbia Lincoln Malheur Morrow Umatilla Jackson Sherman Yamhill Polk Crook Hood River 28 Tillaniook 29 30 30 32 33 34 35 36 Wheeler Lake Marion Curry Wallowa Linn Josephine Baker Welfare Welfare or public assistance is a measure of old age pensions and aid to dependent children paid by the county ( Table 13 ). Pensions paid to the aged who are not in the work force and who have no other income except social security payments, and a high degree of payments for support of dependent children 21 indicates negative affluence. This measure indicates the percentage of public assistance recipients of the total county population. TABLE 13.-- PUBLIC ASSISTANCE County Number of Recipients Baker Benton 716 991 4841 1025 1007 3108 499 537 1182 3273 39 235 162 453 4451 429 2803 2193 Cl ackamas Clatsop Columbia Coos Crook Curry Des chutes Doug 1 as Gill jam Grant Harney Hood River Jackson Jefferson Josephine Klaniath Percent of Population 4.8 1.8 2.9 3.6 3.5 5.5 5.0 4.1 3.9 4.6 Number of Recipients County 201 10975 1178 3969 1780 8613 128 35642 2066 Lake Lane Lincoln Linn Malheur Marion Morrow Multnomah Polk Sherman 1.7 3.3 2.2 3.4 4.7 5.0 7.8 4.3 Till am 00k Umatilla Union Wallowa Wasco Washington Wheeler Yamhill 29 801 1927 518 210 551 4182 73 2407 Percent of Population 3.2 5.1 4.6 5.5 7.6 5.6 2.8 6.4 5.8 1.3 4.5 4.2 2.6 3.4 2.7 2.6 4.0 6.0 Rank Groups middle group lower group Sherman Gilliam Benton Harney Union 14 15 16 17 18 25 Baker 26 Crook 26 Jefferson Wasco Morrow Clackamas Lake Grant Hood River Wallowa 20 Klaniath upper group 1 2 3 4 5 6 Washington 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 Columbia Clatsop Deschutes Wheeler Curry 19 Umatilla 21 22 22 24 Tillamook Douglas Lincoln Jackson 28 Lane 29 Coos 29 Linn 31 32 33 34 35 36 Marion Polk Yainhill Muitnomab Maiheur Josephine Source: County and City Data Book, 1972 Migration High mobility is characteristic of our society. Mobility 22 results in population structure changes which reflect the character of the county. The net change in population from 1960 to 1970 indicates real growth or decline. The Oregon average rate of growth for that decade was nine percent. Any county rate dissimilar to this can be considered to be the result of in or out migration ( Table 14 ). 14 A county with a high positive rate is affluent as it is experiencing growth, and a county with a negative rate is declining and so is deficient in affluence for this indicator. TABLE 14.-- MIGRATION RATE County Net Rate Baker Benton Clackamas Clatsop Columbia Coos Crook Curry Deschutes Douglas Gilliam Grant -19.1 22.9 366 2.4 19.9 -8.4 -2.8 -19.1 23.2 -7.3 -30.8 -18.8 County Net Rate Harney Hood River Jackson Jefferson Josephine Klamath Lake Lane Lincoln Linn Malheur Marion -6.8 -6.9 19.7 -1.5 13.7 -7.1 -19.5 15.4 0.5 10.5 -9.2 16.4 County Net Rate Morrow Multnomah Polk Sherman Tillamook Umatilla Union Wallowa Wasco Washington Wheeler Yarnhill Rank Groups upper group I Washington 2 Clackarnas 3 Polk 4 Deschutes 5 Benton 6 Columbia 7 Jackson 8 Yainhill 9 Marion 10 Lane 11 Josephine 12 Linn middle group 13 Clatsop 14 Union 15 Lincoln 16 Multnomah 17 Jefferson 18 Crook 19 Umatilla 20 Harney 21 Hood River 22 Kiamath 23 Douglas 24 Wasco Source: 1970 Census of Population lower group 25 Coos 26 Maiheur 27 Tillamook 28 Morrow 29 Grant 30 Baker 30 Curry 32 Lake 33 Sherman 34 Wallowa 35 Gilliam 36 Wheeler -15.1 0.1 24.2 -20.4 -12.3 -6.1 0.7 -17.5 -8.7 56.7 -39.1 17.8 23 Education Earning ability in many instances is related to educational level and skills. The percentage of persons twenty-five years and older with twelve or more years of education is an indicator of earning capability ( Table 15 ). The mean education level for the thirty-six Oregon counties is 12.3 years with some counties slightly more and others slightly less. High levels of education in a county can be considered a measure of affluence TABLE 15.-- PERCENT OF PERSONS TWENTY-FIVE YEARS AND OLDER WITH TWELVE OR MORE YEARS OF EDUCATION County Percent Baker Benton Clackamas Clatsop Columbia Coos Crook Curry Deschutes Douglas Gilliam Grant 53.6 74.9 63.7 54.9 52.1 49.9 53.7 52.0 61.5 50.7 70.1 53.9 County Percent Harney Hood River Jackson Jefferson Josephine Klaniath Lake Lane Lincoln Linn Malheur Marion County 54.8 53.8 57.1 56.2 50.4 58.7 56.0 61.9 53.9 53.8 54.6 Morrow Multnomah Polk Sherman 611 Yanthill Percent Tillarnook Umatilla Union Wallowa Wasco Washington Wheeler 59.7 61.0 58.3 60.1 50.6 57.1 59.7 60.2 57.5 71.7 52.1 55.4 Rank Groups upper group 1 Benton 2 Washington 3 Gilliam 4 Clackamas 5 Deschutes 6 Lane 7 Marion 8 Wallowa 9 Sherman 10 Multnomah 11 Morrow 12 Union middle group lower group 13 Klaniath 25 26 27 28 29 30 30 32 33 34 35 36 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Polk Wasco Umatilla Jackson Jefferson Lake Yamhill Clatsop Harney Malheur Lincoln Source: County and City Data Book, 1972 Grant Linn Hood River Crook Baker Columbia Wheeler Curry Douglas Josephine Tillamook Coos 24 Income Per capita personal income is an indicator of individual earned income of county inhabitants based on the population ( Table 16 ). TABLE 16.-- PER CAPITA INCOME County Baker Bent on Clackamas Clatsop Columbia Coos Crook Curry Des chutes Douglas Gilliam Grant Per Capita County Income $ 2585 Harney Hood River 3089 Jackson 3405 Jefferson 3150 Josephine 2870 Kiamath 2974 Lake 2749 Lane 2939 Lincoln 2985 Linn 2761 2625 Malheur 2600 Marion Per Capita Income $ 2856 2887 2876 2618 2612 2912 2628 3038 2897 2720 2377 2847 County Morrow Multnomah Polk Sherman Till amook Umatilla Union Wallowa Wasco Washington Wheeler Yamhill Per Capita Income $ 3071 3510 2860 2638 2793 2795 2743 2604 2877 3719 2578 2744 Rank Groups upper group middle group lower group 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Washington Multnomah Clackamas Clatsop Benton Morrow Lane Coos Curry Kiamath Lincoln Deschutes Hood River Wasco Jackson Columbia Polk Harney Marion Umatilla Tillamook Douglas Crook 24 Yajnhill Union Linn Sherman Lake Gilliam Jefferson Josephine Wallowa Grant Wheeler Baker Malheur Source: compiled from County and City Data Book, 1972 Bank Deposits A per capita bank deposit is a measure of dollars deposited in county banks regardless of where it was earned ( Table 17 ). Generally, where per capita bank deposits are high, the county 25 positive affluence, but this is not true in all cases and has Clackamas and Washington Counties are an example. Both are ranked low in bank deposits and it is likely that a substantial portion of the inhabitants of these counties are employed and deposit their incomes in Multnomah County banks. TABLE 17.-- PER CAPITA BANK DEPOSITS County Percapita County Depos it Baker Benton Clackamas Clatsop Columbia $ 1749 1419 996 2055 1271 1732 1802 1846 1928 1635 2785 1682 Coos Crook Curry Des chutes Douglas Gill i am Grant Harney Hood River Jacks on Jefferson Josephine Klamath Lake Lane Lincoln Linn Malheur Marion Per Capita Deposit $ 1996 2108 1551 1626 1689 1377 2585 1739 1722 1473 1942 1739 County Per Capita Deposit Morrow Multnomah Polk Sherman Till amook Umatilla Union Wallowa Wasco Washington Wheeler Yamhill Rank Groups upper group 1 Multnomah 2 GUliam 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Lake Morrow Hood River Wasco Clatsop Wallowa Harney Maiheur Deschutes Tillamook middle group 13 Curry 14 Crook 15 Baker 16 Marion 17 Lane 18 Coos 19 Lincoln 20 Union 21 Josephine 22 Grant 23 Wheeler 23 Yanthill lower group 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Douglas Sherman Jefferson Jackson Umatilla Linn Benton Kiamath Columbia Washington Clackamas Polk Source: County and City Data Book, 1972 $ 2396 2839 767 1630 1850 1511 1708 2017 2106 1048 1649 1649 26 ANALYSIS OF COUNTY RANKING County rank data for the indicators are of little utility unless they are examined statistically to determine the degree of correlation between the availability and development of agricultural resources and the level of socio-economic affluence. There are many statistical procedures that can be used to determine correlation between variables, but for ranked data within two variables, the Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient r is most useful. It is applied when factors within variables are placed in rank order and because of complexity, cannot retain numerical values. 15 This is the case when determining the degree of correlation between the problem variables. Ranking the counties within the variables is probably the most expedient way to make the variables directly comparable and because of the number of indicators, the only practical method. The initial task involved in the utilization of Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient is to derive for each county, an overall rank for agricultural resources and socio-economic affluence that is resultant directly from the counties ranks for each of the indicators ( Table 18 ). This is accomplished by aggregating all ranks for all the indicators. This synthesis of county ranks are in turn used to rank each county's position among the counties within each variable. 27 TABLE 18.-- SYNTHESIS OF COUNTY RANKS County Baker Benton Clackanias Clatsop Columbia Coos Crook Curry Deschutes Douglas Gilliam Grant Harney Hood River Jackson Jefferson Josephine Kiamath Lake Lane Lincoln Linn Malheur Marion Morrow Multnomah Polk Sherman Tillamook Umatilla Union Wallowa Wasco Washington Wheeler Yamhill of Agricultural Resource Ranks Rank Eof Socio-Economic Affluence Ranks Rank 36 201 116 168 260 205 269 186 282 232 287 167 215 189 22 3 15 32 201 61 61 23 33 19 34 30 135 141 153 l68 86 7 36 179 83 163 33 91 177 127 197 132 1 181 126 286 129 136 103 170 120 161 213 209 128 209 231 214 137 238 142 14 28 20 17 6 : 21 9 18 5 35 8 10 2 16 4 13 26 24 93 99 131 139 149 200 121 149 99 133 182 149 121 90 76 132 117 149 24 29 140 123 162 27 85 11 31 12 49 178 146 7 Sourcex compiled by the author 2 2 9 19 22 28 31 5 30 10 16 20 24 35 13 24 10 18 34 24 13 8 4 17 12 24 20 15 29 6 1 32 23 4;] Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient r5= i,.. 6 d n-,-n where d2 is the square of the difference in rank of the variables, and n is the number o co1inies, compares the overall difference in rank of county ordered pairs. 16 The counties, with their ranks for agricultural resources and socio-economic affluence are arranged so their difference of ranks between the variables can be determined and used in correlational analysis ( Table 19 ). TABLE 19.-- RANK DIFFERENCES County Baker Benton Clackamas Clatsop Columbia Coos Crook Curry Deschutes Douglas Gilliam Grant Harney Hood River Jackson Jefferson Josephine Agricultural Resources d2 196 36 14 3 2 2 9 1 1 13 23 4 11 169 529 15 32 23 33 19 34 30 36 14 28 20 1 17 6 21 9 Lake Lane Lincoln Linn 18 Maiheur Marion Morrow Multnomah Polk Sherman 10 Tillaniook 24 Yanthill d 22 Klainath Umatilla Union Wallowa Wasco Washington Wheeler Socio-Economic Affluence 5 35 8 2 16 4 13 26 7 24 29 27 11 31 12 19 22 28 31 9 3 7 23 33 3 9 2 5 30 10 16 20 24 35 13 24 10 18 34 24 13 10 15 16 121 81 9 529 9 81 4 100 225 3 9 18 14 4 324 196 6 5 17 26 14 11 16 36 25 289 676 196 121 64 4 8 0 17 12 4 14 24 20 15 29 0 0 13 169 9 0 81 1 21 10 441 100 32 23 1 1 11 121 8 6 0 16 196 0 5147 29 Working through Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient , we find that r5= 1- , and r5= .338 Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient is a measure of correlation between one ranked variable and another. + 1.0 would indicate perfect positive correlation, where every county rank for one variable is identical to every county rank for the other variable. -1 would indicate perfect negative correlation and 0 would signify no relationship at all. A positive coefficient generally indicates that if a county has a high rank in one variable, it will have a correspondingly high rank in the other variable. The same can be stated for the lower ranked counties if a positive coefficient exists. 17 The question must come up as to the significance of r5= .338. There must be some cases where correlation of agricultural The resources and socio-economic affluence is coincidental. Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient has a critical value for n=30 at the .05 level of significance of .306 18 For paired ordered variables numbering greater than thirty, this critical value decreases slightly. The test correlation coefficient, r5= .338 is greater than the critical value for thirty-six ordered pairs. With this, it can be safely stated with 95 percent confidence, that there is a moderately significant positive correlation between the availability and development of agricultural resources and the level of socio-economic affluence of the thirty-six oregon counties. 19 This analysis has shown the level of overall rank correlation of the counties but not the distribution of correlation. 30 Rank Group Correlation The distribution of correlation between agricultural resources and socio-economic affluence of Oregon counties is determined by analysis of the rank groups which serve as an index to the county's collective position within the indicators. Rank groups are generalized to a greater degree than are the overall county rankings. It is very difficult to indicate cartographically the distribution of any factor or phenomena if there is no solid basis for representation. For analysis and mapping to be effected, it is necessary to generalize the county ranks for the indicators. This operation requires the choice of a rank for the agricultural resource variable and for the socio-economic affluence variable for each county, so they will be directly comparable. Each county in Oregon has special and unique physical, economic, and social qualities which determine the character of the county. Some qualities, which are of equal importance and weight initially, become more salient especially when these qualities are at the saiie level of development. If a county has a marked majority of a single rank group among the various indicators, then that rank group and the measures indicated by it are the most important in determining the county's level of agricultural resources and socio-economic affluence ( Table 20 ). For this part of the investigation it is not the overall ranks of the counties that are examined but the factors that are the most influential in determining the comparable socio-economic affluence characteristics and aggregate quality of the agricultural resources. 31 TABLE 20.-- MAJORITY RANK GROUPS OF OREGON COUNTIES Socio-Economic Affluence Agricultural Resources 'c 0)0) 4J4J 0 .r1 4J Cj cccl)cçN 0)0 a) CH0) 0 0 UD County Baker Benton Clackamas Clatsop Columbia Coos Crook Curry Deschutes Douglas Gilliam Grant Harney HoodRiver Jackson Jefferson Josephine Klamath Lake Lane Lincoln Linn Maiheur Marion Morrow Multnomah Polk Sherman Tillamook Umatilla Union Wallowa Wasco Washington Wheeler Yarnhill 0J.r1r-C C0)4JCQr-4' Z 1321222322 2112112121 3113112133 3233313123 3222213133 2232323233 1321231312 3332233233 3231323233 3223131313 1233131311 2131133232 2311331311 3111211113 2321221223 1311131211 3231113133 2221221211 2321321312 3112112122 3233323233 2113222212 2311121311 1112112122 1233131311 3112211112 1113223222 1123333233 3132312123 1223121211 2222322231 2332333322 1233232321 2113113133 1322332331 1112113122 2 1 1 3 2 3 1 3 3 3 1 3 1 1 2 1 3 2 2 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 1 2 3 2 1 3 1 1 = upper rank group 2 = middle rank group 3 = lower rank group 4 ct EQ 00 0H0).r.r.1 1 Cl) Ii 4J1-i0).,-1 CCCCECI EO-4O00 CflW.r) 3333332 1111113 1111113 2222211 2221323 2133313 2232322 3323312 2321111 3322323 1113131 3113332 2112221 3212321 3221223 1332233 3331332 2122213 3313231 2131113 3222212 3331333 1233231 1331122 2213111 1132111 1231223 1213133 1323321 2222221 3112132 3313131 2112221 1111113 1323332 2231222 0 0 3 1 1 2 2 3 2 3 1 3 1 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 1 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 3 3 2 1 3 2 1 3 2 32 Agricultural Resources Agricultural resources are available and developed in some Oregon counties but are absent or at a low level in others because of differences in the physical and economic characteristics among the counties. Economic and physical factors interact complexly and determine the level to which agricultural resources of a county unit can be developed. Resources within each county are not uniformly distributed throughout the unit and often an intense concentration of agricultural development constitutes the entire agricultural resource base for the county. The counties represented by rank groups are averaged so the factors of area, magnitude of production, and concentrations of development are removed, so measurement is dependent upon the factors that determine the agricultural character of the county. Oregon has specific agricultural regions including; the Coast, the Willamette Valley, the Blue Mountains, the Columbia River Basin, South Central and Southern Oregon. Each of these regions are classified by geomorphic type, topography, climate, soils and other factors and each has a different type of agricultural resource base° Many of the counties classified in rank groups are adjacent and this suggests regionality of resources based on levels of availability and development ( Fig. 1 ) The counties of the Willainette Valley rank in the upper group in availability and development of resources with the exception of Polk and Linn Counties. These two counties rank high in magnitude of gross sales of production, but each has p a ''l's' I. - p I- , - 5 - S - S S I - - S .- S I - S S 34 many small commercial farms, so the production, sales, and development per average county farm is rather low giving a low rank to a majority of indicators and thus is placed in a low rank group.21 For parts of these counties, development may be intensive but for the most part it is not, so Polk and Linn Counties are relegated to the middle rank group. The remainder of the Willamette Valley counties including; Multnomah, Washington, Yamhill, Clackamas, Marion, Benton and Lane have a marked majority of the upper rank group among the indicators, because they rank high in cropland, harvested cropland, crop return, utilization of grazing land and farm acre values. Other indicators are noted but are not as important in determining the counties relative worth. Valley counties rank low in irrigation, percent of class I farms and sales and equipment value per average county farm. Irrigation is dependent upon climate and in many cases, it is not required for valley counties except for crops that require supplemental irrigation. The valley counties have many commercial farms but a relative low percent of superfarms as compared to other areas of the state and this is indicated by average county farm sales. Willamette Valley farms tend to be small and this is reflected by low levels of equipment value except for Benton County which is the highest of the Valley counties. The counties of the Oregon Coast including; Clatsop, Tillamook, Lincoln, Coos, and Curry are deficient in availability and development of agricultural resources and this is indicated by a low rank group for every county. Each of these counties 35 has a low rank for almost every indicator and this can be expected because agriculture is not the principal industry of this region. Agricultural resources are not available in the coastal counties and this strongly affects any degree of development. The Columbia River Basin in Oregon includes Wasco, Sherman, Hood River, Umatilla, Gilliarn, and Morrow Counties. Umatilla, Gilliam, and Morrow Counties have consistently high rankings in many indicators including farmland, crop return, class I farms, and farm sales and equipment value per average county farm, and are placed in the upper rank group. These counties are ranked low in irrigated land and acre values but this is a function of the agricultural type (dry cropping) which is extensive. Hood River County is totally dissimilar from the other Columbia Basin counties. Farmland available is less than eight percent of the area of the county. Land that is available for agriculture is highly developed with high percentages of the farmland being cropped and harvested. Hood River County has high rankings in a majority of indicators and is placed in the upper rank group on the basis of utilization, class I farms, sales and acre values, as well as cropland and harvested cropland. Wasco County is developed to a more restricted level than the other counties and has a majority of ranks in the middle group. Wasco County has high ranks in resource availability, but low ranks in development. Sherman County is deficient in all indicators except farmland and cropland which indicates that the resources that are available and utilized, are at a low 36 level of development. The counties of the Blue Mountains agricultural region are in the middle and lower rank groups. Wheeler, Wallowa, and Grant Counties are placed in the lower rank group because of low rankings in harvested cropland, which indicates that much of the cropland is used for grazing purposes with a lower return per acre than can be derived from a crop, utilization of grazing land, farm sales and acre values per average county farm, and percent of class I farms. Baker and Union Counties are slightly higher in these respects with nearly all of their indicators in the middle rank group. The central Oregon counties of Jefferson and Crook are placed in the upper rank group because of high rankings in all indicators except cropland and acre values. Deschutes County is an island of low ranking surrounded by higher ranked counties. Deschutes County's physical resources are limited and this is reflected by low ranking in all indicators except irrigated land. The counties of southern Oregon are represented by all rank groups. Jackson, Klamath and Lake Counties have high rankings in irrigated land but are placed in the middle rank group because of deficiency in availability and development of the county resources as a whole. These counties have highly developed concentrations of agricultural enterprise which support the remainder of the county. Douglas County is placed in the lower rank group because of low rankings in available farmland, irrigated land, acre values and equipment 37 values. Josephine County, in the lower rank group, has much of the same agricultural character as the coastal counties. Malheur and Harney Counties are in the upper rank group based on high rankings in harvested cropland, irrigated land, class I farms, and sales and equipment value per average county farm. For these two counties, ranking is high in all areas except the percent of county in farmland and acre values per average county farm, which shows that where resources are available, they are well developed. The counties arranged in rank groups often conform to the established agricultural regions. The distribution of group ranked agricultural resources indicates diversity among the counties where differences are a consequence of availability and development and not county size or magnitude of production. Socio-Economic Affluence The distribution of socio-economic affluence rank groups suggests only a limited measure of regionality as compared to agricultural resources C Fig. 2 ). Urbanized or metropolitan counties including Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, Marion, Benton, Lane and Deschutes Counties are assigned to the upper rank group based on a majority of high ranks for the indicators: unemployment, migration, education, and income. Gilliam, Morrow, and Union Counties have consistently high rankings in poverty level, welfare, education and bank deposits and are included in the upper group. N SOC 10-ECONOMIC AFFLUENCE . ................] ........u.u...uu I I................ I I. middle rank group . Scale 1:4000000 .1 lower rank 0 50 group Fig. 2 Distribution of Socio-Economic Affluence by Group Ranked Oregon Counties 100 mi. 39 The remaining twenty-six Oregon counties have no specific distribution pattern and are placed in the middle and lower rank groups. These counties have various factors that combine in sufficient strength to place them in ranks that are not at the most optimum level of socio-economic affluence. Each of these counties has upper group ranks in only a limited number of indicators, and show marked majorities in the middle and lower rank groups. For the counties in the lower and middle groups, deficiency in education level, migration, and a significant degree of welfare recipients contribute to low rankings, with unemployment also being a contributing factor. Socio-economic affluence cannot be controlled by income or county production only. The desired result to be derived for the socio-economic variable is the character of the county, socially and economically, as a product of many factors and not only one or a few. Correlations of Rank Groups In correlational analysis of the rank groups it is most evident that there are strong positive correlations in western Oregon counties. Central and eastern counties cor- relate positively in only seven instances ( Fig. 3 ). Among the upper rank group counties, there are eight perfect positive correlations and these include: Benton, Clackamas, Lane, Marion, Muitnomab, Washington, Morrow, and Gilliam. These counties are located in the Willamette Valley except Morrow and Gilliam which are in the wheat growing 40 Scale 1:4000000 positive 0 50 100 mi. correlations Fig. 3 Distribution of Oregon County Rank Group Correlation 41 region of the Columbia River Basin. Five counties correlate positively in the middle rank group and these include: Columbia, Wasco, Jackson, Kiarnath, and Polk. For the lower rank group many perfect positive correlations can be seen between the variables. Correlations of these counties includes: Coos, Curry, Douglas, Grant, Josephine, Sherman, Tillamook, Wallowa, and Wheeler. These counties are located in northeast Oregon and in the vacinity of the coast. It can be noted that for all the counties in Oregon that do not correlate perfectly, there are many partial or near correlations between the rank groups. This indicates a county may be ranked in the upper group for agricultural resources and in the middle group for socio-econornic affluence; or a county may be in the middle group for agricultural resources and in the lower group for socio-economic affluence, and so on. Only Jefferson, Malheur, and Deschutes Counties correlate negatively. This can be attributed to major discrepencies between the level of availability and development of agricultural resources and levels of socio-economic affluence for those counties. Jefferson and Maiheur Counties have relatively high degrees of poverty, a substantial rate of out-migration, low educational lecel compared to other counties, and low per capita incomes. At the same time, Jefferson and Maiheur are highly developed where agricultural land is available and rank among the top ten in sales of county agricultural products. Deschutes county has a low level of agricultural availability and development, but a viable degree of development socially 42 and economically including a high rate of in-migration, a large percentage of persons over twenty-five years old with twelve or more years of education, and a considerable measure of per capita personal income and bank deposits. Of Oregon's thirty-six counties, twenty-two or 61.1 percent correlate positively within the majority rank groups; eleven or 30.5 percent correlate partially; and only three counties or 8.33 percent have negative correlations. CONCLUS ION It is beyond the scope of this problem to formulate exacting explanations why correlations exist and why they do not. There is an inordinate number of factors that were not measures and cannot be assessed and successfully weighed. The forms of correlational analysis employed have been adapted from procedures designed to survey a reduced number of factors than have been incorporated within the scope of this problem. This investigation has revealed some interesting and unexpected results. It cannot be asserted that high levels of agricultural resource availability and development will guarantee a viable degree of socio-economic affluence, although this is manifested for the urban counties. There are too many other factors involved that contribute to the measure of socio-econornic affluence. If the counties with deficient availability and development 43 of agricultural resources are well endowed with other resources and industries, the counties should have a substantial degree of socio-economic affluence if those resources and industries are well developed, but for the most part, this is not the case. One-fourth of all Oregon counties are deficient in viable levels of socio-economic affluence and simultaneously have only limited agricultural resources. In light of this, it can be significantly implied that diminutive measures of socio-economic affluence of Oregon counties directly reflect deficiency in the availability and development of agricultural resources. 44 FOOTNOTES 1 R. 0. Coopedge, Agriculture 1980- A Projection for Oregon, Special Report 313, Agricultural Experiment Station, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon , December 1970, p. 1. 2 Agriculture in Oregon Counties- Sales and General Characteristics, Special Report 330, Cooperative Extension Service, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, June 1971, p. 1. 3 J. R. Tarrant, Agricultural Geography, ( Plymouth, England: David and Charles Ltd., 1974), pp. 12-13. 4 Socio-Economic Indicators, Speak Out, ( Fort Collins, Colorado: Colorado State University Division of Continuing Education, November 1967 ), pp. 4-5. 5 See Appendix III. This information is derived from the 1969 Census of Agriculture, for class I-V farms. 6 N. Ginsberg, "Natural Resources and Economic Development," Annals, Association of American Geographers, Vol. 47 (1957), p. 198. 7 County area as a factor is to be removed so the counties will be directly comparable. A. H. Robinson, " The Necessity of Weighting Values in Correlation Analysis of Areal Data," Annals, Association of American Geographers, Vol. 46 (1956), p. 233, demonstrated that weighting by county area must be implemented in correlational analysis. Robinson employed only a very limited number of variables in their areal study, so weighting was necessary. For analysis of many varying indicators, weighting is not feasable or desired. 45 8 All factors must have equal weight as there is no useable proceedure for weighting all indicators successfully. R. M. Highsmith, Atlas of Oregon Agriculture, (Corvallis, Oregon: Oregon State College, 1958), PP. 16-22 served as a basis for selection of part of the agricultural resource indicators. 9 These indicators are obtainable direct-ly from: Bureau of the Census, 1970 Census of Population, and County and City Data Book,(1972). 10 Average county farm information is available directly from the 1969 Census of Agriculture for all Oregon counties. 11 Socio-Economic Indicators, op. cit., footnote 4, p. 5. The authors list socio-economic indicators only and make no attempt at analysis of any type. 12 The percentage of class I farms of all farms and their value of production is derived from 1969 Census 13 Agriculture. Oregon Conservation Needs Inventory Committee, Oregon Soil and Water Conservation Needs Inventory, USDA Soil Conservation Service, Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service, Extension Service, Oregon State University,(l972), p. 8. 14 See Appendix II for county population changes, 1960 to 1970. 15 J. Madge, The Tools of Social Science, ( London: Longmans Green and Co., 1957), pp. 74-75. 16 5. Szulec, Statistical Methods, 1965), pp.49O-49l. ( Oxford: Pergamon Press, 46 17 P. J. McCarthy, Introduction to Statistical Reasoning, (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1957), pp. 380-381. 18 E. G. Olds, "The 5% Significance Levels of Sums of Squares of Rank Differences and Correlation," Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 29 (1949), p. 117. 19 R. Hammond and P. McCullagh, Quantative Techniques in Geography, (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1974), pp.198-199. 20 School of Agriculture, Oregon State College, An Analysis of Oregon Agriculture, (Corvallis, Oregon: 1947), Vol. 1, p. 7. 21 See Appendix III for rankings of counties for sales of production 0 (0 C o rr1 :iz rt .4:.. APPENDIX II County Baker Benton Clackamas Clatsop Columbia Coos Crook Curry Deschutes Douglas Gilliam Grant Harney Hood River Jackson Jefferson Josephine Kiamath Lake Lane Lincoln Linn Maiheur Marion Morrow Multnomah Polk Sherman Tillamook Umatilla Union Wallowa Wasco Washington Wheeler Yarnhill Area Sq. Mi. 3068 668 1884 805 639 1604 2975 1627 3031 5063 1208 4530 10166 523 2812 1793 1625 5970 8231 4552 986 2283 9859 1166 2060 423 736 830 1115 3227 2032 3178 2381 716 1707 711 1970 Population 14919 53776 166088 28473 28790 56515 9985 13006 30442 71743 2342 6996 7215 13187 94533 8548 35746 50021 6343 213358 25755 71914 23169 151309 4465 556667 35349 2139 17930 44923 19377 6247 20133 157920 1849 40213 Source: 1970 Census of Population. 1960 Population 17295 39165 113038 27380 22379 54955 9430 13983 23100 68458 3069 7726 6744 13395 73962 7130 29917 47475 7158 162890 24635 58867 22764 120888 4871 522813 26523 2446 18955 44352 18180 7102 20205 92237 2722 32478 49 APPENDIX III County Agricultural Product Millions of Dollars Baker Bent on Clackamas Clatsop Columbia Coos Crook Curry Deschutes Douglas Gilliam Grant Harney Hood River Jackson Jefferson Josephine Klainath 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Umatilla Marion Malheur Clackamas Linn Klamath Washington Lane Jefferson Yanthill Jackson Polk 11.75 7.89 31.47 1.98 4.17 7.29 9.06 2.50 6.37 7.65 6.38 6.52 8.12 12.70 17.33 19.27 3.95 27.05 County Agricultural Product Millions of Dollars 8.26 20.78 1.59 30.66 42.79 46.31 9.42 12.89 13.93 4.70 8.67 53.87 11.48 8.10 10.89 22.54 2.33 17.98 Lake Lane Lincoln Linn Malheur Marion Morrow Multnomah Polk Sherman Tillamook Umatilla Union Wallowa Wasco Washington Wheeler Yarnhill Ranking of Counties 13 Multnomah 14 Hood River 15 Baker 16 Union 17 Wasco 18 Morrow 19 Crook 20 Tillamook 21 Lake 22 Harney 23 Wallowa 24 Benton Source: 1969 Census of Agriculture 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Douglas Coos Grant Gilliam Deschutes Sherman Columbia Josephine Curry Wheeler Lincoln Clatsop 50 BIBLIOGRAPHY Agriculture in Oregon Counties-Farm Sales and General Characteristics, Special Report 330, (Corvallis, Oregon: Cooperative Extension Service, Oregon State University, June 1971). 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