Weakly nonlinear and stochastic properties of ocean wave fields: Application to an extreme wave event Karsten Trulsen Mechanics Division, Department of Mathematics, University of Oslo, Norway Abstract These notes give a graduate level introduction to the weakly nonlinear and stochastic theory of sea surface waves, for application to wind-generated wave fields on deep-water open ocean, with particular application to the Draupner “New Year Wave” that occurred in the central North Sea on January 1st 1995. The reader is assumed to be familiar with linear dispersive wave theory. No background in nonlinear or stochastic wave theory is assumed. 1 Introduction The material contained here is to a large extent motivated by the so-called Draupner “New Year Wave”, an extreme wave event that was recorded at the Draupner E platform in the central North Sea on January 1st 1995 (Haver 2004; Karunakaran et al. 1997). This location has an essentially uniform depth of 70 m. The platform is of jacket type and is not expected to modify the wave field in any significant way. The platform had a foundation of a novel type, and for this reason was instrumented with a large number of sensors measuring environmental data, structural and foundation response. We are particularly interested in measurements taken by a down looking laser-based wave sensor, recording surface elevation at a speed of 2.1333 Hz during 20 minutes of every hour. The full 20 minute time series recorded starting at 1520 GMT is shown in Figure 1 and a close-up of the extreme wave event is shown in Figure 2. To remove any doubt that the measurements are of good quality, Figure 3 shows an even finer close-up with the individual measurements indicated. It is clear that the extreme wave is not an isolated erroneous measurement. The minimum distance between the sensor and the water surface was 7.4 m. The significant wave height was Hs = 11.9 m while the maximum wave height was 25.6 m with a crest height of 18.5 m. Haver (2004) states that the wave itself was not beyond design parameters for the platform, but basic engineering approaches did not suggest that such a large wave should occur in a sea state with such a small value of Hs . Some damage was reported to equipment on a temporary deck. The wave has often been referred to as a freak or rogue wave. During the past decade, a considerable effort has been undertaken by many people to understand the Draupner wave, and rogue waves in general. Statoil should be commended for their policy of releasing this wave data to the public, thus igniting an avalanche of exciting research. Much of the work reported here has been carried out by this motivation, 1 20 surface elevation (m) 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 0 200 400 600 time (s) 800 1000 1200 Figure 1. Draupner 20 minute time series starting at 1520 GMT. with a particular philosophy to divert attention away from the immediate neighborhood of the extreme wave itself, and rather try to understand the general wave conditions of the entire wave field in which it occurred. Freak waves are by definition unusual in comparison with the sea state in which they occur. A possibly surprising conclusion of the following considerations is that the Draupner “New Year Wave” may not deserve to be called a freak wave, at least not to the extent first anticipated, taking into account the sea state in which it occurred. A consequence of second- and third-order nonlinear wave theory is that waves like the Draupner “New Year Wave” should occur much more frequently, within the given sea state, than anticipated from linear theory. 2 Preliminary considerations — empirical description We define the mean water level by its mean position in the N = 2560 discrete measurements of duration 20 minutes. Thus Figures 1, 2 and 3 show the surface elevation relative to the mean water level, ηn ≡ η(tn ), where tn = n∆t are the discrete times, and where the time average is by definition η≡ N −1 1 X ηn = 0. N n=0 2 20 surface elevation (m) 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 time (s) 320 340 360 380 Figure 2. Extract of Draupner time series close to the extreme wave. The standard deviation, or root-mean-square, of the discrete measurements can be computed as v u N −1 q u1 X 2 η 2 = 2.98m. σ= η =t N n=0 n The significant wave height is defined as four times the standard deviation Hs = 4σ = 11.9m. (2.1) For reasons that will become clear soon, we define the characteristic amplitude as √ ā = 2σ = 4.2m. (2.2) The wave height H is defined as the vertical distance between a crest and a neighboring trough. Care must be taken to distinguish wave heights defined by zero-up-crossing or zero-down-crossing. For the given time series, there are 106 down-crossing wave heights and 105 up-crossing wave heights. The maximum down-crossing wave height is 25.6 m and the maximum up-crossing wave height is 25.0 m. After all the individual wave heights are found, we can sort them in decreasing order. For any positive number α, the average of the 1/α highest waves is denoted as H1/α . Particularly common is the average 3 20 surface elevation (m) 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 245 250 255 260 265 time (s) 270 275 280 285 Figure 3. Extract of Draupner time series close to the extreme wave, with discrete measurements indicated. of the 1/3 highest waves; the down-crossing H1/3 is 11.6 m and the up-crossing H1/3 is 11.4 m. These values are almost identical to Hs . The maximum crest height of 18.5 m is equal to 6.2 standard deviations. The maximum wave height of 25.6 m is equal to 8.6 standard deviations, or equivalently, 2.1 significant wave heights. Some researchers like to define freak waves by some of these ratios being larger than some thresholds. If the Draupner “New Year Wave” deserves to be called freak, then the crest height is certainly more freak than the wave height. The frequency spectrum S(ω) can be estimated by the square magnitude of the Fourier transform of the time series 2|η̂(ω)|2 , properly normalized such that the integral under the spectral curve is equal to the variance of the surface elevation. Continuous and discrete Fourier transforms are reviewed in appendix A. We employ the discrete Fourier transform of the time series N −1 1 X (2.3) ηn eiωj tn , η̂j = N n=0 and use only the positive frequencies ωj = 2πj/T for j = 0, 1, . . . , N/2 for the representation of the frequency spectrum. Figure 4 shows the estimated spectrum with linear axes, while Figure 5 shows the same with logarithmic axes, in both cases without any smoothing. 4 0.6 frequency spectrum (m^2 s) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 frequency (Hz) 0.2 0.25 Figure 4. Frequency spectrum estimated from 2|η̂(ω)|2 without smoothing, linear axes. Based on the Fourier transform of the time series for surface elevation, we may estimate a characteristic angular frequency as the expected value of the spectral distribution ωc = 2 j |ωj ||η̂j | P = 0.52s−1 2 |η̂ | j j P (2.4) corresponding to a characteristic frequency of 0.083 Hz and a characteristic period of Tc = 12 s. Here it is understood that the index j is centered around the origin. The characteristic wavenumber can be estimated based on the assumption that the waves are linear to leading order. Then we simply solve the linear dispersion relation ω 2 = gk tanh kd were g = 9.81 m/s2 is the acceleration of gravity and d = 70 m is the relevant depth. We find the characteristic wavenumber kc = 0.029 m−1 , the characteristic wave length λc = 217 m and the characteristic non-dimensional depth kc d = 2.0. As far as estimating the characteristic wavenumber is concerned, no great error is done using infinite depth in which case we get kc = 0.028 m−1 and λc = 225 m. Knowing the characteristic wavenumber, we may proceed to compute the characteristic steepness ǫ = kc ā = 0.12. 5 10 ω-5 frequency spectrum (m2 s) 1 ω-4 0.1 0.01 0.001 1e-04 1e-05 1e-06 1e-07 0.01 0.1 frequency (Hz) 1 Figure 5. Frequency spectrum estimated from 2|η̂(ω)|2 without smoothing, logarithmic axes. Overlain are two possible power decay laws for the high frequency tail. It will be useful to have some measure of the characteristic deviation ∆ω of the frequency spectrum around the characteristic frequency ωc . We define the dimensionles bandwidth to be the ratio between the deviation and the mean δω = ∆ω . ωc The most simple-minded approach to estimate ∆ω is to stare at Figure 4. This leads to the conclusion that ∆ω/2π ≈ 0.025 Hz, and thus δω ≈ 0.32. More sophisticated approaches to compute ∆ω, for example by computing the standard deviation of frequency in the frequency spectrum, typically yield unreasonably large and less useful values of ∆ω. This is because the high-frequency tail of the spectrum is largely due to nonlinear bound waves and measurement noise. As far as appraising the desired properties of possible simplified models is concerned, it turns out that the eye-balling approch is more reliable. In conclusion of these hand-waiving considerations, the important observations are given by three non-dimensional numbers: The characteristic steepness is ǫ = kc ā ≈ 0.12, the characteristic bandwidth is δω = ∆ω/ωc ≈ 0.32 and the characteristic nondimensional depth is h = kc d ≈ 2.0. This means that the wave field is weakly nonlinear, has finite small bandwidth and is essentially on deep water. Notice also that the band- 6 width and the steepness have the approximate scaling relationship δω ∼ √ ǫ. In the next sections we show how to take advantage of these scaling considerations to construct simplified mathematical models that can describe this wave field. Finally it is instructive to see how the sea state of the Draupner wave compares to typical sea states in the northern North Sea. Figure 6 contains approximately 70 000 data points, each representing a 20 minute wave record from the northern North Sea. Tp denotes the wave period corresponding to the frequency at the spectral peak; we have approximately Tp ' Tc . There is no doubt that the sea state of the Draupner “New Year Wave” is extreme. This provokes the need to make the following distinction: Is it only the sea state that is extreme while the Draupner “New Year Wave” should be anticipated within its sea state, or is the Draupner “New Year Wave” also extreme given the sea state in which it occurred? ε=0.03 ε=0.05 ε=0.075 ε=0.1 Figure 6. Scatter diagram for Hs and Tp from the northern North Sea. Pooled data 1973–2001, from the platforms Brent, Statfjord, Gullfax and Troll. Curves of constant steepness are also shown. The figure was prepared by K. Johannessen Statoil. 7 3 The governing equations As our starting point we take the equations for the velocity potential φ(r, z, t) and surface displacement η(r, t) of an incompressible inviscid fluid with uniform depth d, ∇2 φ = 0 for − d < z < η, (3.1) ∂φ ∂η + ∇φ · ∇η = at z = η, (3.2) ∂t ∂z ∂φ 1 2 + gη + (∇φ) = 0 at z = η, (3.3) ∂t 2 ∂φ =0 at z = −d. (3.4) ∂z Here g is the acceleration of gravity, the horizontal position vector is r = (x, y), the vertical coordinate is z, ∇ = (∂/∂x, ∂/∂y, ∂/∂z) and t is time. The solution of the linearization of equations (3.1)–(3.4) is a linear superposition of simple harmonic waves such as η(r, t) = a cos(k · r − ωt) ωa cosh k(z + d) sin(k · r − ωt) k sinh kd subject to the dispersion relation for gravity waves on finite depth φ(r, z, t) = ω 2 = gk tanh kd, (3.5) where qa is the amplitude, ω is the angular frequency, k = (kx , ky ) is the wave vector and k = kx2 + ky2 is the wavenumber. In section 2 we found characteristic scales ωc , kc and ā, which can be used to introduce properly scaled dimensionless quantities āη ′ = η, ωc ā ′ φ = φ, kc (r ′ , z ′ ) = kc (r, z), t′ = ωc t, h = kc d. Dropping the primes, the normalized equations become ∇2 φ = 0 for − h < z < ǫη, ∂η ∂φ + ǫ∇φ · ∇η = at z = ǫη, ∂t ∂z ǫ ∂φ η 2 + + (∇φ) = 0 at z = ǫη, ∂t s 2 ∂φ =0 at z = −h, ∂z where we use the notation ǫ = kc ā and s = tanh h. 8 (3.6) (3.7) (3.8) (3.9) With small steepness ǫ ≪ 1 it is reasonable to assume perturbation expansions η = η1 + ǫη2 + ǫ2 η3 + . . . (3.10) φ = φ1 + ǫφ2 + ǫ2 φ3 + . . . 4 Weakly nonlinear narrow-banded equations 4.1 The bandwidth The empirical considerations in section 2 reveal that the steepness is small, but the bandwidth is not quite as small. Traditionally there have been two basic approaches to deal with the bandwidth of weakly nonlinear ocean waves. In the classical literature on nonlinear Schrödinger equations, the bandwidth is assumed to be as small as the steepness. Otherwise, with no constraint on bandwidth, a straightforward application of the perturbation expansions (3.10) leads to the much more complicated Zakharov integral equations (Zakharov 1968; Krasitskii 1994). The numbers derived in section 2 suggest that some intermediate model may be optimal in terms of mathematical and computational complexity (Trulsen & Dysthe 1997). To get a good feeling for the significance of the bandwidth, a good example is the idealized wave packet 2 f (x) = e−(κx) cos kc x (4.1) of approximate width 1/κ containing oscillations of length 2π/kc . The Fourier transform is Z ∞ k+kc 2 k−kc 2 1 1 f (x)e−ikx dx = √ e−( 2κ ) + e−( 2κ ) . (4.2) fˆ(k) = 2π −∞ 4κ π Thus the Fourier transform is centered around k = ±kc with a width κ that is the inverse of the length of the wave packet. A natural definition of bandwidth could now be δk = κ kc (4.3) If the width of the packet is much greater than the length of a basic wave oscillation, δk ≪ 1, is is natural to identify two characteristic scales for x; a fast scale associated with rapid oscillations x0 = k0 x and a slow scale associated with the envelope x1 = κx = δk x0 . Thus we may write 2 f (x) = f (x0 , x1 ) = e−x1 cos x0 . (4.4) 4.2 Derivation of higher-order nonlinear Schrödinger equations Based on all previous considerations, we now propose the “optimal” scaling assumptions for the wave field in which the Draupner wave occurred (Trulsen & Dysthe 1996, 1997): ǫ ≈ 0.1, δk , δω = O(ǫ1/2 ), h−1 = O(1). (4.5) Pursuing these “optimal” scaling assumptions leads to messy-looking higher-order equations. Some limiting cases of this exercise have been done, for finite-depth narrow-banded 9 waves by Brinch–Nielsen & Jonsson (1986), and for wider-banded deep-water waves by Trulsen & Dysthe (1996). The much simpler higher-order equations derived from the following simplified assumptions still capture a large portion of the essential physics: ǫ ≈ 0.1, δk , δω = O(ǫ), h−1 = O(ǫ). (4.6) This was done for infinite depth by Dysthe (1979) and for deep water by Lo & Mei (1985, 1987). Pursuing the simplified scaling assumptions (4.6), the following harmonic expansions for the velocity potential and surface displacement are employed: 1 ′ iθ A e + ǫA′2 e2iθ + ǫ2 A′3 e3iθ + · · · + c.c. , (4.7) 2 1 1 η = ǫη̄ + Beiθ + ǫB2 e2iθ + ǫ2 B3 e3iθ + · · · + c.c. . (4.8) 2 Here c.c. denotes the complex conjugate. The phase is θ = x − t after having oriented the x-axis in the direction of the characteristic wave vector kc . The slow drift φ̄ and set-down η̄ as well as the harmonic amplitudes A′1 , A′2 , A′3 , . . . , B, B2 , B3 , . . . are functions of the slow modulation variables ǫr and ǫt. In the assumed case of deep water h−1 = O(ǫ) the induced current φ̄ also depends on the slow vertical coordinate z̄ = ǫz while the variables A′1 , A′2 , A′3 , . . . also depend on the basic vertical coordinate z. For finite depth h−1 = O(1) it would be necessary to rescale φ̄ and assume that it too depends on the basic vertical coordinate. The vertical dependence of the harmonic amplitudes A′n for n > 1 is found from the Laplace equation and the bottom boundary condition, φ = ǫφ̄ + ∂A′ ∂ 2 A′n ∂ 2 A′n ∂ 2 A′n − n2 A′n + 2ǫin n + ǫ2 + ǫ2 =0 2 2 ∂z ∂x ∂x ∂y 2 for − h < z, ∂A′n = 0 at z = −ǫ−1 h. ∂z The vertical dependence can then be found by the perturbation expansion A′n = An,0 + ǫAn,1 + ǫ2 An,2 + . . . (4.9) (4.10) (4.11) For the harmonic amplitudes that decay exponentially on the basic vertical scale, the bottom condition is essentially at infinite depth. Thus the leading-order solution is An,0 = An enz (4.12) which evaluates to An at z = 0. An is not a function of z. With the surface boundary condition An,j = 0 at z = 0 for j = 1, 2, . . . we get solutions at higher orders An,1 = −iz 10 ∂An nz e , ∂x (4.13) An,2 = z 2 ∂ 2 An z ∂ 2 An − − 2 ∂x2 2n ∂y 2 enz . (4.14) Note: Throughout the following we use the notation B ≡ B1 and A ≡ A1 . A review of literature on higher order nonlinear Schrödinger equations over the past three decades may lead to a certain degree of confusion because authors sometimes appear to have a lack of awareness of whether they are expressing the equations in terms of the surface displacement B or the velocity potential A. At the cubic Schrödinger level these equations are quite similar and the distinction is not important. However, at higher order the different versions of the equations (A or B, temporal or spatial evolution) turn out to have different types of terms giving them remarkably different properties. The spatial evolution equations in terms of A have particularly nice properties for analytical considerations, while the spatial evolution equations for B are more convenient for most practical applications. This choice may also have important consequences for the stability and accuracy of numerical schemes. In the following sections we summarize the higher-order equations for A and B, for spatial and temporal evolution. In passing between temporal and spatial evolution, we have made the assumption that the induced flow φ̄ is only due to nonlinearly bound response to the free first-harmonic waves. 4.3 Deep water time evolution of A This was the form first derived by Dysthe (1979) for infinite depth, and by Lo & Mei (1985, 1987) for finitely deep water. The evolution equations are i ∂2A i ∂2A i ∂A 1 ∂A + + − + |A|2 A ∂t 2 ∂x 8 ∂x2 4 ∂y 2 2 1 ∂3A 3 ∂3A 7 ∂ φ̄ ∂A 1 ∂|A|2 − + + |A|2 − A + iA = 0 at 3 2 16 ∂x 8 ∂x∂y 4 ∂x 4 ∂x ∂x ∂ φ̄ 1 ∂|A|2 = ∂z 2 ∂x at z = 0, ∂ 2 φ̄ ∂ 2 φ̄ ∂ 2 φ̄ + 2 + 2 = 0 for ∂x2 ∂y ∂z ∂ φ̄ =0 ∂z The reconstruction formulas are η̄ = B = iA + at − h < z, z = −h. 1 ∂ φ̄ , 2 ∂x i ∂2A i ∂2A i 1 ∂A + − + |A|2 A, 2 ∂x 8 ∂x2 4 ∂y 2 8 A2 = 0, 11 z = 0, (4.15) (4.16) (4.17) (4.18) (4.19) (4.20) (4.21) 1 ∂A B2 = − A2 + iA , 2 ∂x (4.22) A3 = 0, (4.23) B3 = − 4.4 3i 3 A . 8 (4.24) Deep water space evolution of A This form was employed by Lo & Mei (1985, 1987). The evolution equations are ∂A ∂A ∂2A i ∂2A +2 +i 2 − + i|A|2 A ∂x ∂t ∂t 2 ∂y 2 ∂ φ̄ ∂A ∂3A − 8|A|2 − 4iA = 0 − ∂t∂y 2 ∂t ∂t ∂ φ̄ ∂|A|2 =− ∂z ∂t 4 at ∂ 2 φ̄ ∂ 2 φ̄ ∂ 2 φ̄ + 2 + 2 =0 ∂t2 ∂y ∂z ∂ φ̄ = 0 at ∂z at z = 0, (4.25) z = 0, (4.26) for (4.27) z = −h. − h < z, (4.28) Equation (4.25) has the exceptional property that there is no term proportional to A∂|A|2 /∂t. The reconstruction formulas are η̄ = − B = iA − ∂ φ̄ , ∂t ∂A 3i 2 − |A| A, ∂t 8 (4.29) (4.30) A2 = 0, (4.31) ∂A 1 , B2 = − A2 − 2iA 2 ∂t (4.32) A3 = 0, (4.33) B3 = − 12 3i 3 A . 8 (4.34) 4.5 Deep water time evolution of B The evolution equations are ∂B 1 ∂B i ∂2B i ∂2B i + + − + |B|2 B 2 ∂t 2 ∂x 8 ∂x 4 ∂y 2 2 3 ∂3B 5 1 ∂|B|2 ∂ φ̄ ∂B 1 ∂3B + + |B|2 + B + iB = 0 at − 3 2 16 ∂x 8 ∂x∂y 4 ∂x 4 ∂x ∂x z = 0, 1 ∂|B|2 ∂ φ̄ = at z = 0, ∂z 2 ∂x ∂ 2 φ̄ ∂ 2 φ̄ ∂ 2 φ̄ + 2 + 2 = 0 for − h < z, ∂x2 ∂y ∂z ∂ φ̄ =0 ∂z The reconstruction formulas are at A = −iB + (4.36) (4.37) z = −h. (4.38) 1 ∂ φ̄ , 2 ∂x η̄ = (4.39) 3i ∂ 2 B i ∂2B i 1 ∂B + − + |B|2 B, 2 ∂x 8 ∂x2 4 ∂y 2 8 (4.40) A2 = 0, B2 = 4.6 (4.41) i ∂B 1 2 B − B , 2 2 ∂x A3 = 0, B3 = (4.35) (4.42) (4.43) 3 3 B . 8 (4.44) Deep water space evolution of B The evolution equations are i ∂2B ∂B ∂2B ∂B + i|B|2 B +2 +i 2 − ∂x ∂t ∂t 2 ∂y 2 ∂3B ∂|B|2 ∂ φ̄ ∂B − − 6|B|2 − 2B − 4iB = 0 at 2 ∂t∂y ∂t ∂t ∂t ∂|B|2 ∂ φ̄ =− at z = 0, ∂z ∂t ∂ 2 φ̄ ∂ 2 φ̄ ∂ 2 φ̄ 4 2 + 2 + 2 = 0 for − h < z, ∂t ∂y ∂z ∂ φ̄ =0 ∂z at 13 z = −h. z = 0, (4.45) (4.46) (4.47) (4.48) The reconstruction formulas are η̄ = − A = −iB − ∂ φ̄ , ∂t ∂B ∂2B 3i + i 2 − |B|2 B, ∂t ∂t 8 A2 = 0, B2 = ∂B 1 2 B + iB , 2 ∂t A3 = 0, 3 B3 = B 3 . 8 4.7 (4.49) (4.50) (4.51) (4.52) (4.53) (4.54) Finite depth When the depth is finite h ≈ 1, all the numerical coefficients in the above equations become functions of s = tanh h. The induced flow φ̄ must be rescaled to a lower order. The equations for the slow response (η̄, φ̄) change qualitative nature such as to support free long waves. Furthermore, several new types of terms enter the evolution equations for the short waves. Brinch–Nielsen & Jonsson (1986) derived equations for the temporal evolution of the velocity potential A, corresponding to those summarized in section 4.3. Sedletsky (2003) derived fourth-harmonic contributions also for the temporal evolution of the velocity potential A. We limit to just two particularly interesting observations, the following two reconstruction formulas that can be extracted from Brinch–Nielsen & Jonsson (1986) B2 = 3 − s2 2 B + ..., 4s3 (4.55) 3(3 − s2 )(3 + s4 ) 3 B + ... (4.56) 64s6 In the limit of inifinite depth the two coefficients become 1/2 = 0.5 and 3/8 = 0.375, respectively, while for the target depth h = 2.0 for the Draupner wave field the coefficients are 0.58 and 0.47, respectively. It is evident that nonlinear contributions to the reconstruction of the surface profile are more important for smaller depths. B3 = 5 Exact linear dispersion The above equations are based on the “simplified” scaling assumptions, and the perturbation analysis was carried out up to O(ǫ4 ) for the evolution equations. The “optimal” scaling assumptions for the Draupner wave field require wider bandwidth than that strictly allowed by the above equations. Carrying out the perturbation analysis to O(ǫ7/2 ) with the “optimal” bandwidth assumption leads to a large number of additional linearly dispersive terms, but no new nonlinear terms, see Trulsen & Dysthe (1996). 14 It is not difficult to account for the exact linear dispersive part of the evolution equations using pseudo-differential operators. This was shown for infinite depth by Trulsen et al. (2000). Here we make the trivial extension to any depth. The full linearized solution of (3.6)–(3.9) can be obtained by Fourier transform. The surface displacement can thus be expressed as Z Z 1 ik·r η(r, t) = η̂(k, t)e dk = b(k)ei(k·r−ω(k)t) dk + c.c. (5.1) 2 where the frequency ω(k) is given by the linear dispersion relation ω 2 = k tanh kh. (5.2) Writing this in the style of the first-harmonic term of the harmonic perturbation expansion (4.8) we get 1 η(r, t) = B(r, t)ei(x−t) + c.c. (5.3) 2 The complex amplitude B(r, t) is defined by Z Z iλ·r B(r, t) = B̂(λ, t)e dλ = b(x̂ + λ)ei[λ·r−(ω(x̂+λ)−1)t] dλ (5.4) where x̂ is the unit vector in the x-direction, λ = (λ, µ) is the modulation wave vector and k = x̂ + λ. The Fourier transform B̂ satisfies the equation ∂ B̂ + i [ω(x̂ + λ) − 1] B̂ = 0. ∂t (5.5) The evolution equation for B can be formally written as ∂B + L(∂x , ∂y )B = 0 ∂t (5.6) with L(∂x , ∂y ) = i 1/2 1/2 1/2 h tanh (1 − i∂x )2 − ∂y2 −1 . (1 − i∂x )2 − ∂y2 (5.7) On infinite depth this reduces to L(∂x , ∂y ) = i n (1 − i∂x )2 − ∂y2 1/4 o −1 . (5.8) Linear evolution equations at all orders can now be obtained by expanding (5.6) in powers of the derivatives. Hence we recover the linear part of the classical cubic NLS equation up to second order, the linear part of the modified NLS equation of Dysthe (1979) up to third order, and the linear part of the broader bandwidth modified NLS equation of Trulsen & Dysthe (1996) up to fifth order. Alternatively, an evolution equation for space evolution along the x-direction can be written as ∂B + L(∂t , ∂y )B = 0 (5.9) ∂x 15 where L results from expressing the linear dispersion relation for the wavenumber as a function of the frequency. This is difficult to do in closed form for finite depth, but for infinite depth it reduces to L(∂t , ∂y ) = −i n o 1/2 −1 . (1 + i∂t )4 + ∂y2 (5.10) Expanding (5.9) in powers of the derivatives we recover the linear part of the broader bandwidth modified NLS equation for space evolution in Trulsen & Dysthe (1997) up to fifth order. Equation (5.10) has the interesting property that for long-crested waves (∂y = 0) the pseudodifferential operator becomes an ordinary differential operator with only two terms. The linear constant coefficient equations (5.6) and (5.9) are most easily solved numerically in Fourier transform space so there is no need to approximate the operators with truncated power series expansions. After having derived exact linear evolution equations, and noticing that they are the linear parts of the corresponding nonlinear evolution equations derived earlier, the higher order nonlinear Schrödinger equations with exact linear dispersion are easily obtained in an ad-hoc manner. The replacement for equations (4.15), (4.25), (4.35) and (4.45) become, respectively, i 7 ∂ φ̄ ∂A 1 ∂|A|2 ∂A + L(∂x , ∂y )A + |A|2 A + |A|2 − A + iA = 0 at ∂t 2 4 ∂x 4 ∂x ∂x ∂A ∂ φ̄ ∂A + L(∂t , ∂y )A + i|A|2 A − 8|A|2 − 4iA = 0 ∂x ∂t ∂t at z = 0, (5.11) z = 0, (5.12) ∂B i 5 1 ∂|B|2 ∂ φ̄ ∂B + L(∂x , ∂y )B + |B|2 B + |B|2 + B +i B ∂t 2 4 ∂x 4 ∂x ∂x at z = 0, (5.13) ∂B ∂|B|2 ∂ φ̄ ∂B + L(∂t , ∂y )B + i|B|2 B − 6|B|2 − 2B − 4i B ∂x ∂t ∂t ∂t at z = 0, (5.14) where we employ the versions of L and L for infinite depth, given by equations (5.8) and (5.10), respectively. The Zakharov integral equation (Zakharov 1968) contains exact linear dispersion both at the linear and the cubic nonlinear orders. The above nonlinear Schrödinger equations with exact linear dispersion are limiting cases of the Zakharov integral equation after employing a bandwidth constraint only to the cubic nonlinear part. If a bandwidth constraint is applied on both the linear and nonlinear parts, the higher order nonlinear Schrödinger equations in sections 4.3–4.6 can also be derived as special cases of the Zakharov equation. Stiassnie (1984) first showed how the temporal A equation (4.15) can be obtained from the Zakharov integral equation in a systematic way. Kit & Shemer (2002) showed how both the spatial A equation (4.25) and the spatial B equation (4.45) can be obtained by the same approach. 16 6 Properties of the higher order nonlinear Schrödinger equations Let us define the generic evolution equations ∂A ∂2A ∂2A ∂A + c1 + ic2 2 + ic3 2 + ic4 |A|2 A ∂t ∂x ∂x ∂y ∗ ∂3A ∂3A ∂ φ̄ 2 ∂A 2 ∂A + c5 3 + c6 + c |A| + c A + ic9 A = 0 7 8 2 ∂x ∂x∂y ∂x ∂x ∂x ∂|A|2 ∂ φ̄ =β ∂z ∂x α2 ∂ 2 φ̄ ∂ 2 φ̄ ∂ 2 φ̄ + 2 + 2 =0 ∂x2 ∂y ∂z ∂ φ̄ =0 ∂z 6.1 at at at z = 0, (6.1) z = 0, (6.2) for (6.3) − h < z, z = −h. (6.4) Conservation laws Let the following two quantities be defined, Z Z I = |A|2 dr = (2π)2 |Â|2 dk, J= Z i ∂A∗ A + c.c. 2 ∂x dr = (2π)2 where we have used the Fourier transform A = k = (kx , ky ), see e.g. Trulsen & Dysthe (1997). It is readily shown that I is conserved R Z kx |Â|2 dk, (6.5) (6.6) Â exp(ik · r) dk where r = (x, y) and dI = 0. dt (6.7) On the other hand, J is conserved when the coefficient c8 vanishes dJ = c8 dt Z ∂A∗ −i A ∂x 2 + c.c. ! dr. (6.8) Thus the spatial evolution equations for the velocity potential, section 4.4, are exceptional since they satisfy more conservation laws than all the other forms of the evolution equations. Recommended excersise: Show that the energy and the linear momentum of the waves are conserved even though J is not conserved. 17 6.2 Modulational instability of Stokes waves Equations (6.1)–(6.4) have a particularly simple exact uniform wave solution, known as Stokes waves, given by A = A0 e−ic4 |A0 | 2 t and φ̄ = 0. (6.9) Figure 7 shows the reconstructed surface elevation η = ǫ cos θ + 3ǫ3 ǫ2 cos 2θ + cos 3θ 2 8 at three separate orders for the much exaggerated steepness ǫ = 0.3. 0.3 0.2 η 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 θ/2π Figure 7. Stokes wave of steepness ǫ = 0.3 reconstructed at three orders: —, first order; – –, second order, · · · , third order. The stability of the Stokes wave can be found by perturbing it in amplitude and phase 2 A = A0 (1 + a + iθ)e−ic4 |A0 | t . After linearization in a, θ and φ̄, and assuming plane-wave solutions â a θ = θ̂ ei(λx+µy−Ωt) + c.c., φ̄ φ̂ 18 (6.10) (6.11) we find that the perturbation behaves according to the dispersion relation s 2c9 βλ2 |A0 |2 coth Kh + c28 |A0 |4 λ2 Ω = P ± Q Q − 2c4 |A0 |2 + K (6.12) where P = c1 λ − c5 λ3 − c6 λµ2 + c7 |A0 |2 λ, 2 2 Q = c2 λ + c3 µ and K= p α2 λ2 + µ2 . (6.13) (6.14) (6.15) A perturbation is unstable if the modulational “frequency” Ω has positive imaginary part. The growth rate of the instability is defined as ImΩ. The growth rate is seen to be symmetric about the λ-axis and the µ-axis, therefore we only need to consider the growth rates of perturbations in the first quadrant of the (λ, µ)-plane. Figures 8 and 9 show growth rates for target steepness ǫ = 0.12 on infinite depth, while Figures 10 and 11 show growth rates for target steepness ǫ = 0.12 and target depth h = 2.0. For time evolution it makes no difference selecting equations for A or B. For space evolution it makes a lot of difference. Numerical simulation of the spatial evolution equation for A is more likely to suffer energy leakage through the unstable growth of rapidly oscillating modulations. Thus the most attractive model for analytical work turns out to be the least attractive model for numerical work! The most unstable perturbation is collinear with the principal evolution direction for sufficiently deep water. When the depth becomes smaller than a threshold, which depends on the steepness, the most unstable perturbation bifurcates into an oblique direction. The criterion for bifurcation was discussed by Trulsen & Dysthe (1996). As far as the sea state of the Draupner wave is concerned, it follows that an “equivalent” Stokes wave in fact has its most unstable perturbations in an oblique direction, see Figure 10. This result is however most likely of little practical importance since the bandwidth of the Draupner wave field is so wide that the waves are modulationally stable. 7 Application of the higher-order nonlinear Schrödinger model to the Draupner wave field The following is a good excercise (see Trulsen 2001): Initialization of the nonlinear Schrõdinger equation with the measured time series. Use the equations in section 4.6 for the spatial evolution of the surface elevation. Start by assuming that the waves are long-crested, i.e. disregard all y-derivatives. Extract the complex amplitude B by bandpass filtering the Fourier transform η̂ in a neighborhood of ωc . Compute B2 (t), B3 (t) and η̄(t). Plot the measured time series η(t) together with the reconstructed surface displacement, and plot the contributions from each harmonic term in expansion (4.8). How well do we reconstruct the wave field in general, and the extreme wave in particular? 19 µ 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 λ Figure 8. Growth rate for time evolution of MNLS equations for A and B for ǫ = 0.12 and h = ∞. The maximum growth rate 0.0057 is achieved at (0.20,0). Contour interval 0.0005. 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 µ µ 0 0.8 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0 0.8 0 0 λ 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 λ Figure 9. Growth rate for space evolution of MNLS equations for A (left) and B (right) for ǫ = 0.12 and h = ∞. For the A equations the maximum growth rate 0.011 is achieved at (0.10,0). For the B equations the maximum growth rate 0.011 is achieved at (0.098, 0). Contour interval 0.0005. 20 µ 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 λ Figure 10. Growth rate for time evolution of MNLS equations for A and B for ǫ = 0.12 and h = 2.0. The maximum growth rate 0.0039 is achieved at (0.27,0.14) corresponding to waves at an angle 6.5◦ with the principal propagation direction. Contour interval 0.0005. 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 µ µ 0 0.8 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0 0.8 0 0 λ 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 λ Figure 11. Growth rate for space evolution of MNLS equations for A (left) and B (right) for ǫ = 0.12 and h = 2.0. For the A equations the maximum growth rate 0.0081 is achieved at (0.14,0.16). For the B equations the maximum growth rate 0.0072 is achieved at (0.11, 0.11). The definition of angle is not meaningful since the second axis denotes frequency. Contour interval 0.0005. 21 Bandpass filter the Fourier transform of the measured time series around the origin in order to extract the slowly varying mean surface displacement directly from the measurements. Notice that according to long-crested nonlinear Schrödinger theory, the slowly varying mean surface has a set-down under the extreme wave group. On the other hand, when we extract the slowly varying mean surface directly from the measurements, we find that there is a set-up (Walker, Taylor & Eatock Taylor 2004). There appears to be no good explanation of this discrepancy so far. 8 Stochastic description of surface waves Our concern is to account for the vertical displacement η(r, t) of the water surface as a function of horizontal position r = (x, y) and time t. A quick look at any water surface under the action of wind suggests that the previous deterministic description of uniform waves is unsatisfactory. Given otherwise identical conditions (wind, etc.) it is our everyday experience that the waves are going to be random and unpredictable. We may therefore think of the surface displacement as a stochastic process with several possible outcomes or realizations. A collection of realizations we denote an ensemble. We may think of any single realization as the result of tossing dice or drawing a number at random. The view elaborated here is that once the random number has been drawn, equivalent to chosing an initial condition, the spatiotemporal evolution is deterministically given as a solution of nonlinear evolution equations such as those previously derived. Another point of view not elaborated here is that the continued action of random wind etc. requires the spatiotemporal evolution to be stochastic to a certain level as well. There is an underlying assumption behind the view employd here that the effect of wind is much slower than the rapid deterministic modulations described by the above deterministic evolution equations. In reality we have of course only one realization of the waves on the water surface. However, in our minds we can imagine several realizations, and on the computer we can simulate several realizations. In reality it may also be possible to achieve several essentially independent realizations even if we do not have several identical copies of our lake. In the case that we suffice with measurements during a limited time interval only, we may achieve several independent realizations by measuring waves over several different limited time intervals under otherwise identical conditions (weather, etc.), provided the limited time intervals are sufficiently separated in time. Alternatively, if we suffice with measurements at a group of wave probes only, we may achieve several independent realizations of such time series from several different groups of wave probes provided they are sufficiently far apart. The process of achieving a realization we denote as an experiment. We define a stochastic variable X as a rule that assigns a number xo to every outcome o of an experiment. We define a stochastic process X(t) as a rule that assigns a function xo (t) to every outcome o of an experiment. Of fundamental interest to us, we shall describe the vertical displacement of the water surface as a stochastic process Z(r, t) defined as a rule that assigns a function ηo (r, t) to every outcome o of an experiment. There are now four different interpretations of a stochastic process X(t): 22 1. In the most general case we consider the prosess X(t) for all times t and all outcomes o. 2. Given an outcome o, we consider a time series xo (t) for all times t. 3. Given a time t1 , we consider a stochastic variable X(t1 ) for all outcomes o. 4. Given an outcome o and a time t1 , we consider a number xo (t1 ). 9 Theory for stochastic variables 9.1 Theory for a single stochastic variable With the notation {X ≤ x} we refer to the collection of all outcomes xo of the stochastic variable X such that xo ≤ x. The probability for this collection of outcomes defines the cumulative distribution function F (x) ≡ P {X ≤ x} where P {·} reads the “probability of {·}”. The cumulative probability function has the properties that 1. F (−∞) = 0, 2. F (∞) = 1, 3. F (x) is an increasing function, F (x1 ) ≤ F (x2 ) for x1 < x2 . The probability that an outcome is between a lower and an upper bound is P {a ≤ X ≤ b} = F (b) − F (a). Similarly, the probability that an outcome is in an interval of infinitesimal width is P {x ≤ X ≤ x + dx} = F (x + dx) − F (x) ≈ dF dx dx = f (x)dx. We define the probability density function as dF . dx The probability density function has the properties that 1. fR (x) ≥ 0, ∞ 2. −∞ f (x) dx = 1, Rx 3. F (x) = −∞ f (ξ) dξ. The mode of a stochastic variable X is the value of x such that the probability density function f (x) achieves its maximum. This is the most probable outcome for the stochastic variable X. If the probability density has a single maximum, then the variable X is said to be unimodal. The median of a stochastic variable X is the value of x such that the cumulative distribution function F (x) = 0.5. It is equally probable that the stochastic variable X gives an outcome smaller than or greater than the median. The expected value µ of a stochastic variable X is the weighted average Z ∞ xf (x) dx. µ = E[X] = f (x) ≡ −∞ The expected value of a function g(X) of the stochastic variable X is the weighted average Z ∞ g(x)f (x) dx. E[g(X)] = −∞ 23 It is seen that the expected value operator is linear, E[ag(X) + bh(X)] = aE[g(X)] + bE[h(X)]. The variance σ 2 of a stochastic variable X is given by Z ∞ (x − µ)2 f (x) dx. σ 2 = Var[X] = E[(X − µ)2 ] = −∞ By the linearity of the expected value operator, this can be written σ 2 = E[(X − µ)2 ] = E[X 2 − 2µX + µ2 ] = E[X 2 ] − 2µE[X] + µ2 = E[X 2 ] − µ2 . The standard deviation σ of a stochastic variable is the square root of the variance. The nth moment of a stochastic variable X is Z ∞ xn f (x) dx, mn = E[X n ] = −∞ while the nth centered moment is n E[(X − µ) ] = Z ∞ −∞ (x − µ)n f (x) dx. The variance can be defined as the second centered moment of the stochastic variable. We see that µ = m1 and σ 2 = m2 − m21 . The skewness γ of a stochastic variable is the third centered moment normalized by the cube of the standard deviation γ= E[(X − µ)3 ] m3 − 3m2 µ + 3µ3 − µ3 m3 − 3σ 2 µ − µ3 = = . 3 3 σ σ σ3 The kurtosis κ of a stochastic variable is the fourth centered moment normalized by the square of the variance κ= E[(X − µ)4 ] m4 − 4m3 µ + 6m2 µ2 − 4µ4 + µ4 m4 − 4γσ 3 µ − 6σ 2 µ2 − µ4 = = . σ4 σ4 σ4 Given a stochastic variable X we can transform it into a new stochastic variable Y as a function of X. Particularly useful is the transformation given by Y = X −µ . σ The cumulative distribution function of Y is FY (y) = P {Y ≤ y} = P { X −µ ≤ y} = P {X ≤ µ + σy} = FX (µ + σy). σ The probability density function of Y is fY (y) = dFY (y) dFX (µ + σy) = = σfX (µ + σy). dy dy 24 (9.1) For the special transformation (9.1) with µ and σ 2 being the mean and variance of X, we notice that the mean of Y is E[Y ] = E[ 1 µ X −µ ] = E[X] − = 0, σ σ σ the variance of Y is E[Y 2 ] = E[ (X − µ)2 1 ] = 2 E[(X − µ)2 ] = 1, σ2 σ while the skewness and kurtosis of Y are the same as the skewness and kurtosis of X, respectively. The characteristic function φ(k) of a stochastic variable X is the Fourier transform of the probability density function, or equivalently, the expected value of eikx , Z ∞ f (x)eikx dx, φ(k) = −∞ with inverse transform f (x) = 1 2π Z ∞ φ(k)e−ikx dk. −∞ We can formally expand the complex exponential function in a power series i 1 eikx = 1 + ikx − k 2 x2 − k 3 x3 + . . . 2 6 and thus the characteristic function can be written as a superposition of all the moments i 1 φ(k) = 1 + ikm1 − k 2 m2 − k 3 m3 + . . . 2 6 In fact, the nth moment can be conveniently achieved by differentiating the characteristic function n times and evaluating the result at k = 0. Example: Gaussian or normal distribution. A stochastic variable X is said to be normally distributed with mean µ and variance σ 2 with the probability density function given by (x−µ)2 1 e− 2σ2 . f (x) = √ 2πσ The cumulative distribution function is Z x (ξ−µ)2 1 1 x−µ 1 √ e− 2σ2 dξ = + erf( √ ) F (x) = 2 2 2πσ 2σ −∞ Rz 2 where erf(z) = √2π 0 e−t dt is the error function. The stochastic variable X is unimodal with mode xmode = µ. The median is xmedian = µ since erf(0) = 0. The mean is Z ∞ (x−µ)2 x √ e− 2σ2 dx = µ, E[X] = 2πσ −∞ 25 the variance is 2 E[(X − µ) ] = Z ∞ −∞ 2 (x − µ)2 − (x−µ) √ e 2σ2 dx = σ 2 . 2πσ the skewness is E[(X − µ)3 ] 1 = 3 σ3 σ Z ∞ 1 E[(X − µ)4 ] = 4 κ= 4 σ σ Z ∞ γ= −∞ 2 (x − µ)3 − (x−µ) √ e 2σ2 dx = 0. 2πσ and the kurtosis is −∞ The characteristic function is φ(k) = e− 2 (x − µ)4 − (x−µ) √ e 2σ2 dx = 3. 2πσ σ 2 k2 2 +iµk . In the limit of zero variance, σ → 0, the probability density function converges to a Dirac delta function f (x) = δ(x − µ) and the characteristic function has unit magnitude |φ(k)| = 1. Example: Uniform distribution. A stochastic variable Θ is said to be uniformly distributed on the interval [0, 2π] with the probability density function given by 1 0 ≤ θ ≤ 2π 2π f (θ) = 0 otherwise The cumulative distribution function is 0 θ F (θ) = 2π 1 θ<0 0 ≤ θ ≤ 2π θ > 2π The mode is not well defined since f (θ) does not have an isolated extremal point. The median is θmedian = π because F (π) = 0.5. The mean is µ = E[Θ] = π. The variance is σ 2 = E[(Θ − µ))2 ] = π 2 /3. The skewness is γ = 0. The kurtosis is κ = 9/5. The characteristic function is 1 (e2πik − 1). φ(k) = 2πik Example: Rayleigh distribution. A stochastic variable X is said to be Rayleigh distributed with the probability density function given by ( αx2 αxe− 2 x≥0 f (x) = 0 x<0 where α is a parameter. Find the mode, median, mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis and characteristic function! 26 Example: Exponential distribution. A stochastic variable X is said to be exponentially distributed with the probability density function given by αe−αx x ≥ 0 f (x) = 0 x<0 where α is a parameter. Find the mode, median, mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis and characteristic function! 9.2 Theory for several stochastic variables Let X and Y be two stochastic variables. With the notation {X ≤ x and Y ≤ y} we refer to the collection of all outcomes of the two stochastic variables X and Y such that X ≤ x and Y ≤ y simultaneously. The probability for this collection of outcomes defines the joint cumulative distribution function F (x, y) ≡ P {X ≤ x and Y ≤ y}. The joint cumulative probability function has the properties that 1. F (−∞, −∞) = 0, 2. F (∞, ∞) = 1, 3. F (x1 , y1 ) ≤ F (x2 , y2 ) for x1 ≤ x2 and y1 ≤ y2 . The marginal cumulative distribution functions are FX (x) = F (x, ∞) and FY (y) = F (∞, y). The joint probability density function is defined as f (x, y) ≡ ∂ 2 F (x, y) ∂x∂y and has the properties that 1. fR (x, y) ≥ 0, ∞ R∞ 2. −∞ −∞ f (x, y) dx dy = 1, Rx 3. F (x, y) = −∞ f (ξ) dξ. The marginal probability density functions are defined as Z ∞ Z ∞ ∂FY (y) ∂FX (x) f (x, y) dx = and fY (y) = . f (x, y) dy = fX (x) = ∂x ∂y −∞ −∞ Two stochastic variables X and Y are said to be statistically independent if the joint probability density function can be factorized f (x, y) = fX (x)fY (y). The mean values of X and Y are now Z ∞ Z ∞Z ∞ xfX (x) dx, xf (x, y) dx dy = µX = E[X] = −∞ µY = E[Y ] = Z ∞ −∞ −∞ −∞ Z ∞ yf (x, y) dx dy = Z ∞ yfY (y) dy. −∞ −∞ The covariance of two stochastic variables X and Y is given by Cov[X, Y ] = E[(X − µX )(Y − µY )] = E[XY ] − µX µY . 27 The correlation coefficient of the two stochastic variables is the ratio Cov[X, Y ] . σX σY We show that the absolute value of the correlation coefficient is not greater than one, or equivalently | Cov[X, Y ]| ≤ σX σY . Proof. Look at 2 E[(a(X − µX ) + (Y − µY ))2 ] = a2 σX + 2a Cov[X, Y ] + σY2 ≥ 0. Solving for a when this expression is zero we get p 2 2 σY − Cov[X, Y ] ± Cov[X, Y ]2 − σX . a= 2 σX Observing that there cannot be two distinct solutions for a, the radicand must be non-positive 2 2 Cov[X, Y ]2 ≤ σX σY . Two stochastic variables X and Y are said to be uncorrelated if Cov[X, Y ] = 0, which is equivalent to the correlation coefficient being equal to zero, and which is equivalent to E[XY ] = E[X]E[Y ]. We now observe that if two stochastic variables are statistically independent, then they are uncorrelated and their covariance is zero. The converse is not always true. Generalization to an arbitrary number of stochastic variables should now be obvious. Example: Multi normal distribution. The n stochastic variables X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn are said to be jointly normally distributed with the probability density function given by p X |A| 1 exp − (xj − µj )ajl (xl − µl ) f (x1 , . . . , xn ) = 2 (2π)n/2 j,l where C −1 = A = {ajl } is a symmetric positive definite matrix and |A| denotes the determinant of A. The mean values are E[Xj ] = µj , the covariances are Cov[Xj , Xl ] = E[(Xj − µj )(Xl − µl )] = cjl where A−1 = C = {cjl } is the covariance matrix. The characteristic function is given by the n-dimensional Fourier transform X X 1 φ(k1 , . . . , kn ) = E[exp(i(k1 X1 + . . . + kn Xn ))] = exp − kj cjl kl + i kj µj . 2 j j,l It is useful to also consider the limit when some of the variances cjj go to zero. In this case the the covariance matrix becomes singular and the probability density function becomes a generalized function. However, the characteristic function is still a well defined ordinary function, and it may therefore be more convenient to take the characteristic function as the definition of the multi normal distribution. 28 Suppose that the variable X1 is uncorrelated with all the other variables Xj . Then the covariances cj,1 = c1,j = 0 for all j 6= 1, and thus the n-dimensional characteristic function can be factored φ(k1 , k2 , . . . , kn ) = φ1 (k1 )φ2,...,n (k2 , . . . , kn ). From the multidimensional inverse Fourier transform, it follows that the probability density function can be factored likewise. Hence for jointly normally distributed stochastic variables, statistical independence is equivalent to uncorrelatedness. 9.3 The Central Limit Theorem Suppose that a stochastic variable Y is a superposition of n statistically independent variables Xj with mean values µj and variances σj2 , respectively, Y = X1 + X2 + . . . + Xn . Due to the assumption of statistical independence we have for the joint probability density function f (x1 , x2 , . . . , xn ) = f1 (x1 )f2 (x2 ) . . . fn (xn ). The expected value of Y is X X X E[Y ] = E Xj = E[Xj ] = µj = µ. j j j The variance of Y is 2 X Var[Y ] = E[(Y − E[Y ])2 ] = E (Xj − µj ) j = X j E[(Xj − µj )2 ] + X j6=l E[(Xj − µj )(Xl − µl )] = X σj2 = σ 2 j where the sum over all j 6= l vanishes because of statistical independence. We have defined µ as the sum of the means and σ 2 as the sum of the variances. Now define the transformed variable n Z= Y − µ X Xj − µj = σ σ j=1 such that E[Z] = 0 and E[Z 2 ] = 1. The characteristic function φXj (k) is not known, however we can write down the first three terms in the power series expansion in k φXj (k) = E[eikXj ] = 1 + ikE[Xj ] − k 2 σj2 k2 E[Xj2 ] + . . . = 1 + ikµj − + .... 2 2 29 Similarly, the characteristic function φZ (k) has power series expansion in k n n X Y X − µ Xj − µj j j ikZ φZ (k) = E[e ] = E exp ik E exp ik = σ σ j=1 j=1 ! n Y k 2 σj2 k2 n + . . . = (1 − ) +R 1− = 2 2σ 2n j=1 where the transition from sum to product depends on statistical independence, and R is a remainder. Now we let n → ∞ and recall the limit x n → ex as n → ∞. 1− n Provided the remainder term R vanishes as n → ∞ it follows that φZ (k) → e− k2 2 and thus the asymptotic probability density of the transformed variable Z is z2 1 f (z) → √ e− 2 , 2π which is the Gaussian distribution with mean 0 and variance 1. If all the variables Xj are equally distributed it becomes particularly simple to demonstrate that R = O(n−1/2 ). If the Xj are not equally distributed, sufficient conditions for the vanishing of R could depend on certain conditions on the variances σj2 and higher moments of all Xj (see e.g. Papoulis 1984). The central limit theorem states that when these conditions are met, the sum of a great number of statistically independent stochastic variables tends to a Gaussian stochastic variable with mean equal to the sum of the means and variance equal to the sum of the variances. As far as the sea surface is concerned, if the surface elevation is a linear superposition of a great number of independent wave oscillations, then the surface elevation is expected to have a Gaussian distribution. We can now understand an important reason why the Gaussian assumption may be broken for sea surface waves: If the spatiotemporal behavior is governed by a nonlinear evolution equation, then the individual wave oscillations will not be independent. For the weakly nonlinear and narrowbanded case described in earlier sections, there are at least two different reasons why the sea surface displacement should deviate from a Gaussian distribution: Firstly, the reconstruction of the sea surface involves the contributions from zeroth, second and higher harmonics, which are nonlinear wave oscillations that depend on the first harmonic linearly dispersive waves. Secondly, the spatiotemporal evolution equation for the first harmonic is nonlinear, and will introduce dependencies between the wave oscillations comprising the first harmonic. 30 Common practice in the stochastic modelling of weakly nonlinear sea surface waves is often to assume that the first harmonic contribution to the wave field is Gaussian. This implies an assumption that the nonlinear Schrödinger equation itself does not introduce deviations from Gaussian statistics, but the nonlinear reconstruction formulas for the surface displacement do produce such deviations. This assumption has recently been checked experimentally and by Monte Carlo simulations using the nonlinear evolution equations (Onorato et al. 2004; Socquet–Juglard et al. 2005). It is found that for unidirectional long-crested waves the nonlinear Schrödinger equation can produce significant deviation from Gaussian statistics, with an increased number of extreme waves. For more realistic short-crested waves, typical for the sea surface, the assumption that the first harmonic is Gaussian is surprisingly good, even subject to the nonlinearities of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation. 10 Theory for stochastic processes We already mentioned four different ways to interpret a stochastic process X(t). Suppose t is time. At a fixed time t1 the interpretation is a stochastic variable X(t1 ). At two fixed times t1 and t2 the interpretation is two stochastic variables X(t1 ) and X(t2 ). At an arbitrary number of times tj the interpretation is a collection of stochastic variables X(tj ). We seek a description of the joint distribution of these stochastic variables. The first order distribution describes the behavior at one fixed time t1 F (x1 ; t1 ) = P {X(t1 ) ≤ x1 } and f (x1 ; t1 ) = ∂F (x1 ; t1 ) . ∂x1 The second order distribution describes the joint behavior at two fixed times t1 and t2 and F (x1 , x2 ; t1 , t2 ) = P {X(t1 ) ≤ x1 and X(t2 ) ≤ x2 } ∂ 2 F (x1 , x2 ; t1 , t2 ) . ∂x1 ∂x2 Several compatibility relations follow, e.g. F (x1 ; t1 ) = F (x1 , ∞; t1 , t2 ), etc. In principle we can proceed to derive the n-th order distribution for the joint behavior at n fixed times F (x1 , x2 , . . . , xn ; t1 , t2 , . . . , tn ), however, the first and second order distributions will suffice in the following. Care should be exercised not to be confused by our double use of the word “order”: The order of a distribution of a stochastic process refers to the number of distinct spatiotemporal locations employed for joint statistics. The order of nonlinearity refers to the number of wave-wave interactions that produce some effect. The expected value of the stochastic process is Z ∞ xf (x; t) dx. µ(t) = E[X(t)] = f (x1 , x2 ; t1 , t2 ) = −∞ We define the autocorrelation function as Z ∞Z R(t1 , t2 ) = E[X(t1 )X(t2 )] = −∞ 31 ∞ −∞ x1 x2 f (x1 , x2 ; t1 , t2 ) dx1 dx2 . The mean power of the process is defined as the second moment R(t, t) = E[|X(t)|2 ]. The autocovariance function is defined as C(t1 , t2 ) = E[(X(t1 ) − µ(t1 ))(X(t2 ) − µ(t2 ))] = R(t1 , t2 ) − µ(t1 )µ(t2 ). A process is said to be steady state or stationary if the statistical properties are independent of translation of the origin, i.e. X(t) and X(t+τ ) have the same distribution. This implies that the n-th order distribution should be the same for all orders n. For the first order distribution we need f (x1 ; t1 ) = f (x1 ). For the second order distribution we need f (x1 , x2 ; t1 , t2 ) = f (x1 , x2 ; τ ) where τ = t2 − t1 . Similarly, the distributions at any higher order should only depend on the time intervals and not the absolute times. A process is said to be weakly stationary if the expected value is constant with respect to time E[X(t)] = µ and the autocorrelation function is independent of translation of the origin R(t1 , t2 ) = E[X(t1 )X(t2 )] = R(τ ) where τ = t2 − t1 . A process X(t) is said to be ergodic for the computation of some function g(X(t)) if ensemble-averaging gives the same result as time-averaging, e.g. Z T Z ∞ 1 g(x(t)) dt. g(x)f (x; t) dx = lim E[g(X(t))] ≡ T →∞ 2T −T −∞ It is obvious that ergodicity is only meaningful provided the process has some kind of stationarity. Ergodicity with respect to second order statistics, such as the mean and the autocorrelation, is meaningfull for a weakly stationary process. Often we suppose without further justification that ocean waves are both weakly stationary and ergodic. However, the sea state is known to change in time. It may still be a good approximation to assume that within a limited time, say a few hours, the sea state is nearly weakly stationary and ergodic. For a complex stochastic process X(t), the autocorrelation function is defined as R(t1 , t2 ) = E[X(t1 )X ∗ (t2 )]. In the folloing we describe some properties of the autocorrelation function for weakly stationary processes: • For a complex process R(−τ ) = R∗ (τ ), and for a real process R(−τ ) = R(τ ) R(−τ ) = E[X(t)X ∗ (t − τ )] = E[X(t + τ )X ∗ (t)] = R∗ (τ ). • R(0) is real and non-negative R(0) = E[X(t)X ∗ (t)] = E[|X(t)|2 ] ≥ 0. • For a complex process R(0) ≥ |ReR(τ )|, and for a real process R(0) ≥ |R(τ )|. Proof. Let a be a real number and look at E[|aX(t) + X(t + τ )|2 ] = a2 E[|X(t)|2 ] + aE[X(t)X ∗ (t + τ )] + aE[X ∗ (t)X(t + τ )] + E[|X(t + τ )|2 ] = a2 R(0) + 2aReR(τ ) + R(0) ≥ 0. 32 Solving for a when this expression is zero we get p −ReR(τ ) ± (ReR(τ ))2 − R2 (0) a= . R(0) Since there cannot be two distinct real solutions for a we have R(0) ≥ |ReR(τ )|. • R(0) is the second moment of X(t). If E[X(t)] = 0, then R(0) is the variance of X(t). • If X(t) and Y (t) are statistically independent processes with zero mean, and Z(t) = X(t) + Y (t), then RZZ (τ ) = E[(X(t) + Y (t))(X ∗ (t + τ ) + Y ∗ (t + τ ))] = RXX (τ ) + RY Y (τ ). The cross-correlation between two complex processes X(t) and Y (t) is defined as RXY (t1 , t2 ) = E[X(t1 )Y ∗ (t2 )]. If the two processes are independent, then the cross-correlation is zero. Example: Simple harmonic wave with random phase. monic wave with fixed amplitude a and arbitrary phase Consider a simple har- η(x, t) = a cos(kx − ωt + θ) where θ is uniformly distributed on the interval [0, 2π). The expected value of the surface displacement is µ(x, t) = E[η(x, t)] = Z 0 2π a cos(kx − ωt + θ) 1 dθ = 0. 2π The autocorrelation function is R(x, t, x + ρ, t + τ ) = E[η(x, t)η(x + ρ, t + τ )] Z 2π 1 dθ a2 cos(kx − ωt + θ) cos(k(x + ρ) − ω(t + τ ) + θ) = 2π 0 a2 = cos(kρ − ωτ ). 2 2 The mean power of the process is E[η 2 (x, t)] = R(x, t, x, t) = a2 . In fact we could p have defined the amplitude of the process as a = 2E[η 2 ]. Let us proceed to derive the first-order distribution of the process. We have 0 z < −a 1 − π1 arccos az |z| ≤ a F (z; x, t) = P {η(x, t) ≤ z} = 1 z>a 33 ∂F (z; x, t) = f (z; x, t) = ∂z ( √1 πa z 2 ) 1−( a 0 |z| ≤ a |z| > a Notice that the first order distribution is independent of x and t. In fact, this can be seen even without deriving the exact distribution, upon making the substitution ψ = kx − ωt + θ and noting that ψ is a stochastic variable uniformly distributed on an interval of length 2π. With this observation it becomes clear that the stochastic distributions at any order are independent of translation of the spatiotemporal origin, and hence the process is steady state or stationary. The process is ergodic for computation of the mean and the autocorrelation by time averaging when ω 6= 0, and by spatial averaging when k 6= 0, e.g. 1 T →∞ 2T lim Z T −T a cos(kx − ωt + θ) dt a (− sin(kx − ωT + θ) + sin(kx + ωT + θ)) = 0, T →∞ 2ωT = lim 1 lim T →∞ 2T Z T −T a2 cos(kx − ωt + ǫ) cos(kx − ω(t + τ ) + ǫ) dt a2 T →∞ 2T = lim Z T −T cos2 (kx − ωt + ǫ) cos(ωτ ) + 1 sin 2(kx − ωt + ǫ) sin(ωτ ) dt 2 = a2 cos ωτ. 2 However, if k = 0 or ω = 0 the process is not ergodic for computation of these quantities by spatial or time averaging, respectively. Example: Third order Stokes wave with random phase. The third-order normalized Stokes wave with arbitrary phase can be written as η(ψ) = ε cos ψ + γ2 ε2 cos 2ψ + γ3 ε3 cos 3ψ (10.1) where η is now the normalized surface displacement, the phase is ψ = x − t + θ, and the coefficients γ2 and γ3 are found by reference to section 4. The stochastic variable θ is uniformly distributed on the interval [0, 2π), and thus ψ is also uniformly distributed on some interval of length 2π. The steepness ε of the first-harmonic term should not be confused with the steepness ǫ = kc ā of the wave field. The expected value of the normalized surface displacement is E[ζ(ψ)] = Z 2π ζ(ψ) 0 34 1 dψ = 0. 2π The autocorrelation function is R(ρ, τ ) = E[η(ψ)η(ψ + ρ − τ )] = Z 0 2π η(ψ)η(ψ + ρ − τ ) 1 dψ 2π γ 2 ε4 γ 2 ε6 ε2 cos(ρ − τ ) + 2 cos 2(ρ − τ ) + 3 cos 3(ρ − τ ). = 2 2 2 The mean power of the process is Var[η] = E[η 2 ] = R(0, 0) = γ 2 ε4 γ 2 ε6 ε2 + 2 + 3 . 2 2 2 p It is meaningful to define the effective steepness of the process as ǫ = kc ā = 2E[ζ 2 ]. It follows that the relationship between the steepness of the first harmonic and the overall steepness of the wave field is ǫ2 = ε2 + γ22 ε4 + γ32 ε6 ε2 = ǫ2 − γ22 ǫ4 + (2γ24 − γ32 )ǫ6 . and (10.2) In any case, for the small Draupner overall steepness ǫ = 0.12 and depths not smaller than the Draupner depth we find ǫ = ε within two digits accuracy. We now want to derive the distribution of surface elevation, i.e. the first-order distribution of the stochastic process, accurate to third order in nonlinearity. This can be achieved by explicitly inverting the expression for surface elevation ψ(η). We limit to deep water (γ2 = 1/2, γ3 = 3/8). The trick is to rewrite the left-hand side as 3 1 η = εz + ε2 + ε3 s 2 8 (10.3) where s is the sign of η and |z| ≤ 1. Employing the perturbation expansion ψ = ψ0 + εψ1 + ε2 ψ2 + . . . (10.4) ψ0 = arccos z, p ψ1 = − 1 − z 2 (10.5) we find and (10.6) 3(z − s) ψ2 = √ . 8 1 − z2 The cumulative probability distribution is therefore p 1 3ε2 (z − s) 2 arccos z − ε 1 − z + √ F (η) = 1 − π 8 1 − z2 and the probability density function is 1 3ε2 (1 − sz) √ 1 − εz − 2 f (η) = 8(1 − z 2 ) επ 1 − z 0 35 for |z| < 1 for |z| > 1 (10.7) (10.8) (10.9) where 3 η 1 − ε − ε2 s. (10.10) ε 2 8 The probability densities at various nonlinear orders are shown in Figure 12 for an unrealistically high steepness ε = 0.3. z= 5 4 3 2 1 0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 η 0.1 0.2 0.3 Figure 12. Probability density functions for Stokes waves of first-harmonic steepness ε = 0.3: —, linear; - -, second nonlinear order; · · · , third nonlinear order. Example: Simple harmonic wave with random amplitude and phase. Consider a simple harmonic wave with arbitrary amplitude and phase, more specifically let η(x, t) = a cos(kx − ωt) + b sin(kx − ωt) where a and b are statistically independent Gaussian stochastic variables with common mean 0 and common variance σ 2 . The expected value of the surface displacement is µ(x, t) = E[η(x, t)] = E[a] cos(kx − ωt) + E[b] sin(kx − ωt) = 0. The autocorrelation function is R(x, t, x + ρ, t + τ ) = E[η(x, t)η(x + ρ, t + τ )] = σ 2 cos(kρ − ωτ ). 36 2 The mean power is E[η 2 (x, t)] = R(x, pt, x, t) = σ√ . It is meaningful to define the 2 effective amplitude of the process as ā = 2E[η ] = 2σ. Exercise: Proceed to derive the first-order distribution of the process F (z; x, t) = P {η(x, t) ≤ z} and f (z; x, t) = ∂F (z; x, t) . ∂z 11 The spectrum 11.1 Definition of frequency spectrum The frequency spectrum S(ω) of a weakly stationary process is defined as the Fourier transform of the autocorrelation function R(τ ). Whereas the Fourier transform is in principle undetermined by a multiplicative constant, the spectrum becomes uniquely defined by the constraint that the integral of the spectrum over the domain of the frequency axis that is used, should be equal to the variance of the process. Since our target process (the surface elevation) is real, the Fourier transform is complex conjugate symmetric about the origin, and it is enough to use only positive frequencies to represent the spectrum. The desired Fourier transform pair is then Z 1 ∞ S(ω) = R(τ )eiωτ dτ, (11.1) π −∞ 1 R(τ ) = 2 Z ∞ S(ω)e−iωτ dω. (11.2) ∞ Some authors define the spectrum as the squared absolute value of the Fourier transform of the process. In this case the Fourier transform pair (11.1)–(11.2) is called the Wiener–Khintchine theorem. On the other hand, we show in section 11.3 that the squared absolute value of the Fourier transform is an estimator for the spectrum. For a real process we recall that the autocorrelation function is real and even R(−τ ) = R(τ ) and thus we may write S(ω) = 1 π ∞ Z −∞ and R(τ ) = 1 2 R(τ ) cos ωτ dτ = Z ∞ 2 π S(ω) cos ωτ dω = Z ∞ R(τ ) cos ωτ dτ 0 Z ∞ S(ω) cos ωτ dω 0 −∞ and thus it follows that S(ω) is real and even. In particular we have Z ∞ S(ω) dω = R(0) 0 which shows that the normalization criterion is satisfied. 37 For application to a complex process we cannot expect any symmetry for the spectrum and would need to include both positive and negative frequencies, the appropriate transform pair being Z ∞ 1 R(τ )eiωτ dτ, (11.3) S(ω) = 2π −∞ Z ∞ S(ω)e−iωτ dω. (11.4) R(τ ) = ∞ For a complex process we recall that R(−τ ) = R∗ (τ ) and thus Z ∞ Z ∞ 1 1 S(ω) = R(τ )eiωτ dτ = R∗ (τ )e−iωτ + R(τ )eiωτ dτ 2π −∞ 2π 0 which shows that S(ω) is real. It can further be shown that for a real or complex weakly stationary process, the spectrum is non-negative S(ω) ≥ 0. Example: Periodic oscillation with random amplitude and phase. real periodic process with period T η(t) = ∞ X aj cos ωj t + bj sin ωj t Take the (11.5) j=1 where ωj = 2πj/T where aj and bj are statistically independent Gaussian stochastic variables with mean 0 and variance σj2 . The mean is zero E[η(t)] = 0, the autocorrelation function is X R(τ ) = σj2 cos ωj τ, j and using the discrete Fourier transform the spectrum is Z 2 T R(τ )eiωj τ dτ = σj2 . S(ωj ) = T 0 (11.6) The normalization criterion is seen to be satisfied by observing that X X S(ωj ) = σj2 = R(0) = Var[η(t)]. j 11.2 j Definition of wave spectrum The wave spectrum S(k, ω) of a weakly stationary wave process η(x, t) is defined as the Fourier transform of the autocorrelation function R(ρ, τ ). Again the spectrum becomes uniquely defined by the constraint that the integral of the spectrum over the three-dimensional domain of the spectral axes that is used, should be equal to the variance 38 of the process. For a real process like the surface elevation, the Fourier transform has one complex conjugate symmetry, and we therefore limit to only positive frequencies ω ≥ 0 while the wave vector k is unconstrained. The desired Fourier transform pair is then S(k, ω) = 1 4π 3 1 R(ρ, τ ) = 2 Z ∞ dρ −∞ Z ∞ dk Z ∞ ∞ Z dτ R(ρ, τ )e−i(k·ρ−ωτ ) (11.7) −∞ dω S(k, ω)ei(k·ρ−ωτ ) . (11.8) −∞ −∞ Recall that for a real process R(−ρ, −τ ) = R(ρ, τ ) and thus it follows that the spectrum is real and has the symmetry S(−k, −ω) = S(k, ω). Then it also follows that the normalization criterion is satisfied Z ∞ Z 1 ∞ dω S(k, ω) = R(0, 0). dk 2 −∞ −∞ The wave vector spectrum S(k) can now be defined as the projection of the wave spectrum into the wave vector plane S(k) = Z ∞ 1 2 S(k, ω) dω = 0 ∞ Z S(k, ω) dω = −∞ 1 4π 2 Z ∞ R(ρ, 0)e−ik·ρ dρ. −∞ The frequency spectrum S(ω) is recovered by projecting into the frequency axis S(ω) = Z ∞ S(k, ω) dk = −∞ 1 π Z ∞ R(0, ω)eiωτ dτ. −∞ The wavenumber spectrum S(k) is achieved through the transformation kx = k cos θ ky = k sin θ The wavenumber k = spectrum is thus S(k) = Z 0 q 2π dθ ∂(kx , ky ) = k. ∂(k, θ) with Jacobian kx2 + ky2 ≥ 0 is by definition non-negative. The wavenumber Z ∞ dω S(k, ω)k = 0 1 4π 2 Z ∞ 0 dθ Z ∞ −∞ The directional spectrum S(θ) similarly becomes S(θ) = Z 0 ∞ dk Z 0 39 ∞ dω S(k, ω)k. dρ R(ρ, 0)ke−ik·ρ . Example: Linear waves with random phase. Look at the real process η(x, t) = X j aj cos(kj x − ωj t + θj ) where aj are fixed scalars and θj are statistically independent stochastic variables uniformly distributed between 0 and 2π. The mean is zero E[η(x, t)] = 0, and the autocorrelation function is X1 a2j cos(kj ρ − ωj τ ). R(ρ, τ ) = 2 j The variance or mean power of the process is R(0, 0) = X1 j where ā = p 2 a2j ≡ 1 2 ā 2 2R(0, 0) is the equivalent characteristic amplitude. The spectrum is S(k, ω) = X a2j j 2 (δ(k + kj )δ(ω + ωj ) + δ(k − kj )δ(ω − ωj )) where δ(·) is the Dirac delta function. Example: Linear waves with random amplitude and phase. Let us consider the real process X η(x, t) = aj cos(kj x − ωj t) + bj sin(kj x + ωj t) j where aj and bj are statistically independent Gaussian stochastic variables with mean 0 and variance σj2 . The mean is zero E[η(x, t)] = 0, and the autocorrelation function is R(ρ, τ ) = X j σj2 cos(kj ρ − ωj τ ). Notice that Var[η(x, t)] = R(0, 0) = X j σj2 = 1 2 ā . 2 The spectrum is readily found S(k, ω) = X j σj2 (δ(k + kj )δ(ω + ωj ) + δ(k − kj )δ(ω − ωj )) . 40 11.3 An estimator for the spectrum Using the real periodic process (11.5), let us now compute the Fourier transform of η(t) using the Fourier transform (A.8) Z 1 1 T η(t)eiωj t dt = (aj + ibj ). η̂j = T 0 2 Let us construct the quantity S̃j S̃j = 2|η̂j |2 = 1 2 (a + b2j ). 2 j Can S̃j be used as an estimator for S(ωj ) found in equation (11.6)? To answer this question we compute the expected value E[S̃j ] = 1 E[a2j + b2j ] = σj2 2 which shows that it is an unbiased estimator. Then let us compute the variance Var[S̃j ] = E[(S̃j − σj2 )] = E[S̃j2 ] − σj4 where σj4 1 1 E[a4j + 2a2j b2j + b4j ] = E[a4j ] + . 4 2 2 Invoking the Gaussian assumption we get E[a4j ] = 3σj4 , and finally we find that E[S̃j2 ] = Var[S̃j ] = σj4 , or in other words, S̃j has standard deviation equal to its expected value! This implies that if S̃j is an estimator for the spectrum, but we should expect a messy looking result, like what we have indeed seen in Figures 4 and 5. 11.4 The equilibrium spectrum Phillips (1958) first argued that the high frequency tail of the spectrum could be expected to obey the power law ω −5 . Later several observations suggested that wind waves are better characterized by the power law ω −4 . In Figure 5 the two power laws are superposed the estimated unsmoothed spectrum. Dysthe et al. (2003) showed that the 3D shortcrested MNLS equation is the most simplified equation that reproduces the ω −4 power law for the frequency spectrum within the range of the first harmonic. Starting with initial conditions that do not obey any power law, they showed that the ω −4 power law is established within the range of the first harmonic after a time comparable to the growth of modulational instability. Onorato et al. (2002) showed that using the full Euler equations, the ω −4 power law is established over a much wider range than just the first harmonic, and the establishment of the power law for the higher spectral range happens after a longer time than that of modulational instability. 41 12 Probability distributions of surface waves 12.1 Linear waves Let the surface displacement be a linear superposition of simple-harmonic waves η(x, t) = X j aj cos(kj · r − ωj t) + bj sin(kj · r − ωj t) = X j cj cos(kj · r − ωj t + θj ) where aj = cj cos θj , bj = cj sin θj and cj ≥ 0. Our standard assumptions have been that aj and bj are statistically independent Gaussian variables with mean 0 and standard deviation σj2 , the frequencies depend on the wave vectors through the linear dispersion relation ωj = ω(kj ). The variance of the process is X σ2 = σj2 . j We now derive the probability distributions for the amplitudes cj and phases θj . The cumulative distribution function for the amplitude cj is Z q 2 2 Fcj (z) = P { aj + bj ≤ z} = 0 z and the probability density is z2 z − 2σj2 e fcj (z) = σ2 j 0 z≥0 z<0 which is the Rayleigh distribution. The cumulative distribution for the phase θj Fθj (θ) = P {θj ≤ θ} = Z 0 θ 1 dψ 2π and the probability density is fθj (θ) = ( 1 2π 0 which is the uniform distribution. 42 2 r r − 2σ 2 j dr e 2 σj 0 ≤ θ ≤ 2π otherwise The energy density of spectral component (kj , ωj ) is defined by ǫj = 1 2 (a + b2j ) 2 j and has the probability density z 1 e− σj2 σ2 fǫj (z) = j 0 z≥0 z<0 which is the exponential distribution. 12.2 Linear narrowbanded waves In section 4.2 we introduced harmonic perturbation expansions for weakly nonlinear narrowbanded waves. This can now be related to the superposition of simple harmonic waves in the previous section 12.1 η(r, t) = X j aj cos(kj · r − ωj t) + bj sin(kj · r − ωj t) = = X j cj cos(kj · r − ωj t + θj ) 1 i(kc x−ωc t) Be + c.c. = |B| cos(kc x − ωc t + arg B). 2 According to the narrowband assumption, the complex amplitude B has slow dependence on r and t. Necessarily, the narrowband assumption implies that σj2 rapidly decays to zero for values of kj not close to kc = (kc , 0). The magnitude |B| is called the linear envelope of the process. In the limit of extremely small bandwidth, we may consider that only one index j contributes to the sum, and thus the limiting distribution for |B| is the Rayleigh distribution z2 z (12.1) f|B| (z) = 2 e− 2σ2 for z ≥ 0. σ In this limiting case, the probability distribution of crest heights is identical to the probability distribution of the upper envelope. In the limit that the bandwidth goes to zero, the wave height is twice the crest height, H = 2|B|, and is also Rayleigh distributed fH (z) = z − z22 e 8σ 4σ 2 for z ≥ 0. (12.2) Let us consider the distribution of the 1/N highest waves. The probability density for wave height (12.2) is shown in Figure 13. The threshold height H∗ that divides the 1/N highest waves from the smaller waves is the solution of Z ∞ z − z22 1 e 8σ dz = 2 4σ N H∗ 43 which is H∗ = √ 8 ln N σ. The probability distribution for the 1/N highest waves is fH≥H∗ (z) = N z − z22 e 8σ 4σ 2 for z ≥ H∗ and then mean height of the 1/N heighest waves is H1/N = N Z ∞ H∗ i h√ √ √ z 2 − z22 8σ dz = 8 ln N + 2πN erfc ln N σ e 4σ 2 where erfc is the complementary error function. If we set N = 3 then we get H1/3 = 4.0043σ which should be compared with the definition Hs = 4σ. 3.5 3 H* 2.5 2 1.5 1 1/N 0.5 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 H Figure 13. Highest 1/N waves, threshold height H∗ , definition sketch using Rayleigh distribution (σ = 0.1, N = 3). 12.3 Second order nonlinear narrowbanded waves At the second nonlinear order we must account for two types of nonlinear contributions. One is the effect of the cubic nonlinear term in the cubic nonlinear Schrödinger equation, and another is the second harmonic contribution to the reconstruction of the wave profile. If the first type of contribution can be neglected, then it is reasonable to assume that the first harmonic contribution to the harmonic perturbation expansion has a Gaussian distribution. Let us consider the expansion η(r, t) = 1 i(kc x−ωc t) Be + γB 2 e2i(kc x−ωc t) + c.c. 2 44 where γ is a constant that can be found with reference to section 4. It now makes a lot of sense to define nonlinear upper and lower nonlinear envelopes eU = |B| + γ|B|2 , eL = −|B| + γ|B|2 . For small bandwidth the distribution of crest height is the same as the distribution of the upper envelope eU , while the distribution of trough depth is the same as the distribution of lower envelope eL . For the limit of vanishing bandwidth the distribution of wave height is the same as the distribution of the distance between upper and lower envelope, eU − eL = 2|B|, thus the Rayleigh distribution (12.2) is valid to second nonlinear order. Assuming that |B| is Rayleigh distributed, we get the distribution for the second order nonlinear upper envelope √ 1 + 4γz − 1 − 2γz 1 1 √ exp{ 1− } for z > 0. (12.3) feU (z) = 2γσ 2 (2γσ)2 1 + 4γz A similar distribution can be found for the nonlinear lower envelope. These distributions were first derived by Tayfun (1980). For application to the Draupner wave field, we notice that the normalized standard deviation σ = 0.078, and γ is 0.5 for infinite depth and 0.62 for the target depth. The probability densities for linear and nonlinear crest height is seen in Figures 14. 8 10 7 1 6 0.1 5 0.01 4 0.001 3 1e-04 2 1e-05 1 1e-06 0 1e-07 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 η/σ 3 4 5 6 7 η/σ Figure 14. Probability density functions for crest height for the Draupner wave field. Linear second axis left, logarithmic second axis right. —, linear Rayleigh distribution; – –, second-order nonlinear Tayfun distribution for infinite depth; · · · , second-order nonlinear Tayfun distribution for target depth. 12.4 Higher order nonlinear and broader banded waves Tayfun distributions for higher-order nonlinear wave envelopes can readily be derived, and will give small corrections to that already found. 45 Linear crest distributions for broader banded waves is dealt with in a classical theory by Cartwright & Longuet–Higgins (1956). A more novel problem is to assess the influence of nonlinearity in the spatiotemporal evolution equations. It should be anticipated that nonlinearity in the evolution equation will break the Gaussian distribution of the first-harmonic free waves, and therefore the Rayleigh distribution of the linear crest heights as well. For long-crested waves, nonlinearity in the spatiotemporal evolution does indeed produce deviation from the Gaussian/Rayleigh distribution for the first-harmonic free waves. Moreover, there is evidence that increased intensity of extreme waves results when steep narrow-banded waves undergo rapid spectral change, establishing a broader-banded equilibrium spectrum. Numerical evidence has been provided by Onorato et al. (2002), Janssen (2003) and Socquet–Juglard et al. (2005), in good agreement with experimental observations by Onorato et al. (2004). For directionally distributed, short-crested waves, numerical evidence found by Onorato et al. (2002) and Socquet–Juglard et al. (2005) suggests that there is much less increase in intensity of extreme waves during rapid spectral change, and there is much less deviation from the Gaussian/Rayleigh distribution for the first-harmonic free waves, despite nonlinear spatiotemporal evolution. Socquet–Juglard et al. (2005) find evidence that the distribution of crest height of the reconstructed sea surface is quite well described by the second-order nonlinear Tayfun distribution of the previous section 12.3. This is indeed remarkable: A directionally distributed nonlinearly evolving sea with nonvanishing bandwidth is impudently well described by weakly non-Gaussian statistics for vanishing bandwidth! 13 Return periods and return values The return period is defined as the expected time that an extreme event, exceeding some threshold, shall occur once. The return value is the threshold that must be exceed once. For example, for waves with constant period T0 the 100-year wave height H100 is defined by the relationship P {H ≥ H100 } = T0 . 100years For design application to field sites, assessment of return periods and return values requires the knowledge of the joint distribution of periods and heights over all the sea states that characterize the site, and requires systematic observations over extended time. Is the Draupner “New Year Wave” freak? Let us make the following thought experiment: Imagine that the sea state of the Draupner wave time series is extended to arbitrary duration, assess the return periods for the “New Year Wave” according to the distributions derived above. The characteristic period was previously found to be Tc = 12.8 s. The standard deviation was found to be σ = 2.98 m. The exceedance probability for the Draupner wave height HD = 25.6 m is according 46 to the Rayleigh distribution (12.2) P {H ≥ HD } = exp(− 2 HD ) = 9.86 · 10−5 . 8σ 2 This is a 36 hour event. This estimate holds at first and second nonlinear order, and irrespective of the assumed depth. The exceedance probability for the Draupner crest height ηD = 18.5 m is according to the Rayleigh distribution (12.1) P {η ≥ ηD } = exp(− 2 ηD ) = 4.28 · 10−9 . 2σ 2 This is a 95 year event. This estimate holds at linear order irrespective of the assumed depth. Using the second-order nonlinear Tayfun distribution (12.3) the exceedance probability for the Draupner crest height is √ 1 + 4γηD − 1 − 2γηD 1.26 · 10−6 for infinite depth, ) = P {η ≥ ηD } = exp( 2 3.58 · 10−6 for target depth. (2γσ) These are 118 and 41 day events, for infinite and target depth, respectively. These estimates are justified by the conclusions of Socquet–Juglard et al. (2005), that the nonlinear evolution of a weakly nonlinear directional wave field gives an essentially Gaussian first-harmonic behavior, and that the statistics of the combined first and second nonlinear orders is essentially described by theory for vanishing bandwidth. Now recall that Haver (2004) argues that the Draupner “New Year Wave” was not beyond design parameters for the platform, but basic engineering approaches did not suggest that such a large wave should occur in such a mild sea state in which it occurred. If our application of second-order nonlinear distributions for wave and crest heights is correct, then one should certainly not be flabbergasted by the wave height, and probably not by the crest height either, given the sea state in which it occurred. Many people have suggested that extreme waves, such as the Draupner wave, can be produced by exotic third-order nonlinear behaviour such as “breather solutions” of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation (Dysthe & Trulsen 1999; Osborne et al. 2000, etc.). If such effects enter in addition to the above second-order behavior, there should be even more reason to expect more waves like the Draupner wave. 47 A Continuous and discrete Fourier transforms A.1 Continuous Fourier transform of continuous function f (t) on an infinite interval The Fourier transform pair is fˆ(ω) = Z ∞ f (t)eiωt dt (A.1) fˆ(ω)e−iωt dω (A.2) −∞ 1 f (t) = 2π Z ∞ −∞ Substituting one into the other, it is worthwhile to note the integral form of the Dirac delta function Z ∞ 1 eiωt dω (A.3) δ(t) = 2π −∞ Parseval’s theorem states that Z ∞ Z ∞ 1 |f (t)|2 dt = |fˆ(ω)|2 dω 2π −∞ −∞ (A.4) which is derived substituting either (A.1) or (A.2) and then using (A.3). A.2 Fourier series of continuous function f (t) on an interval of finite length T We want to write f (t) = ∞ X fˆj e−iωj t (A.5) j=−∞ where ωj = 2πj/T . Using the L2 inner product Z T f (t)g ∗ (t) dt, hf (t), g(t)i = (A.6) 0 looking at the system of complex exponentials, we find that heiωj t , eiωl t i = T δj,l (A.7) where δj,l is the Kronecker delta function. Thus the complex exponentials are orthogonal. Taking the inner product of (A.5) and a complex exponential and using orthogonality, we get Z 1 T f (t)eiωj t dt (A.8) fˆj = T 0 Parseval’s theorem states that Z T ∞ X |fˆj |2 (A.9) |f (t)|2 dt = T 0 j=−∞ which is derived substituting (A.8) into the left-hand side of (A.9) and then using (A.7). 48 A.3 Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) of series fn with finite number of points N We want to write fn = N −1 X f˜j e−iωj tn (A.10) j=0 where ωj = 2πj/T and tn = nT /N . The tn are known as collocation points. Using the l2 inner product N −1 X fn gn∗ , (A.11) hfn , gn i = n=0 looking at the system of complex exponentials, we find that heiωj tn , eiωl tn i = N δj,l (A.12) where δj,l is the Kronecker delta function. Thus the complex exponentials are orthogonal. Taking the inner product of (A.10) and a complex exponential and using orthogonality, we get N −1 1 X (A.13) fn eiωj tn f˜j = N n=0 Note: The FFT (Fast Fourier Transform) is an algorithm that computes the DFT in O(N log N ) rather than O(N 2 ) steps. Matlab/octave/etc. have routines fft and ifft that compute the DFT transform pair (A.10) and (A.13); care needs to be taken to keep track of the sign of the exponent and where one divides by N ! Parseval’s theorem states that N −1 X n=0 |fn |2 = N N −1 X j=0 |f˜j |2 (A.14) which is derived substituting either (A.13) or (A.10) and then using (A.12). In the DFT inverse transform (A.10) we may rotate the sum-indices cyclically, after making the periodic extension f˜j+N = f˜j . For reconstruction at the collocation points we may start at an arbitrary first index α α+N X−1 f˜j e−iωj tn = N −1 X f˜j e−iωj tn . (A.15) j=0 j=α Thus cyclic permutation gives the same answer for reconstruction at the collocation points tn , but what about interpolation between the collocation points? It is tempting to use (A.10) with arbitrary t. In that case we usually desire an interpolation that oscillates as little as possible, so the frequencies employed in the reconstruction formula should be as small as possible. This is achieved by setting α ≈ N/2. 49 A.4 Relationship between Fourier series and DFT It is readily computed that f˜j = ∞ X fˆj+nN (A.16) n=−∞ This superposition of Fourier components is known as aliasing. Note that if f (t) has sufficiently small bandwidth, or alternatively N is chosen sufficiently large for constant interval length T , that the entire bandwidth is represented within the lowest N Fourier components, then f˜j ≈ fˆj and the reconstruction formula N/2 f (t) ≈ X f˜j e−iωj t j=−N/2 gives an extremely good interpolation between the collocation points. 50 (A.17) Bibliography U. Brinch-Nielsen and I. G. Jonsson. Fourth order evolution equations and stability analysis for Stokes waves on arbitrary water depth. Wave Motion, 8:455–472, 1986. D. E. Cartwright and M. S. Longuet-Higgins. The statistical distribution of the maxima of a random function. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A, 237:212–232, 1956. K. B. Dysthe. Note on a modification to the nonlinear Schrödinger equation for application to deep water waves. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A, 369:105–114, 1979. K. B. Dysthe and K. Trulsen. Note on breather type solutions of the NLS as models for freak-waves. Physica Scripta, T82:48–52, 1999. K. B. Dysthe, K. Trulsen, H. E. Krogstad, and H. Socquet-Juglard. Evolution of a narrow band spectrum of random surface gravity waves. J. Fluid Mech., 478:1–10, 2003. S. Haver. A possible freak wave event measured at the Draupner jacket Januar 1 1995. http://www.ifremer.fr/web-com/stw2004/rw/fullpapers/walk_on_haver.pdf. In Rogue Waves 2004, pages 1–8, 2004. P. A. E. M. Janssen. Nonlinear four-wave interactions and freak waves. J. Phys. Ocean., 33:863–884, 2003. D. Karunakaran, M. Bærheim, and B. J. Leira. Measured and simulated dynamic response of a jacket platform. In C. Guedes-Soares, M. Arai, A. Naess, and N. Shetty, editors, Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, volume II, pages 157–164. ASME, 1997. E. Kit and L. Shemer. Spatial versions of the Zakharov and Dysthe evolution equations for deep-water gravity waves. J. Fluid Mech., 450:201–205, 2002. V. P. Krasitskii. On reduced equations in the Hamiltonian theory of weakly nonlinear surface-waves. J. Fluid Mech., 272:1–20, 1994. E. Lo and C. C. Mei. A numerical study of water-wave modulation based on a higherorder nonlinear Schrödinger equation. J. Fluid Mech., 150:395–416, 1985. E. Y. Lo and C. C. Mei. Slow evolution of nonlinear deep water waves in two horizontal directions: A numerical study. Wave Motion, 9:245–259, 1987. M. Onorato, A. R. Osborne, and M. Serio. Extreme wave events in directional, random oceanic sea states. Phys. Fluids, 14:L25–L28, 2002a. M. Onorato, A. R. Osborne, M. Serio, L. Cavaleri, C. Brandini, and C. T. Stansberg. Observation of strongly non-gaussian statistics for random sea surface gravity waves in wave flume experiments. Phys. Rev. E, 70:1–4, 2004. M. Onorato, A. R. Osborne, M. Serio, D. Resio, A. Pushkarev, V. E. Zakharov, and C. Brandini. Freely decaying weak turbulence for sea surface gravity waves. Phys. Rev. Lett., 89:144501–1–144501–4, 2002b. A. R. Osborne, M. Onorato, and M. Serio. The nonlinear dynamics of rogue waves and holes in deep-water gravity wave trains. Physics Letters A, 275:386–393, 2000. A. Papoulis. Probability, random variables, and stochastic processes. McGraw-Hill, 1984. O. M. Phillips. The equilibrium range in the spectrum of wind-generated waves. J. Fluid Mech., 4:426–34, 1958. Y. V. Sedletsky. The fourth-order nonlinear Schrödinger equation for the envelope of Stokes waves on the surface of a finite-depth fluid. J. Exp. Theor. Phys., 97:180–193, 2003. 51 H. Socquet-Juglard, K. Dysthe, K. Trulsen, H. E. Krogstad, and J. Liu. Probability distributions of surface gravity waves during spectral changes. J. Fluid Mech., 2005 in press. M. Stiassnie. Note on the modified nonlinear Schrödinger equation for deep water waves. Wave Motion, 6:431–433, 1984. M. A. Tayfun. Narrow-band nonlinear sea waves. J. Geophys. Res., 85:1548–1552, 1980. K. Trulsen. Simulating the spatial evolution of a measured time series of a freak wave. In M. Olagnon and G. Athanassoulis, editors, Rogue Waves 2000, pages 265–273. Ifremer, 2001. K. Trulsen and K. B. Dysthe. A modified nonlinear Schrödinger equation for broader bandwidth gravity waves on deep water. Wave Motion, 24:281–289, 1996. K. Trulsen and K. B. Dysthe. Freak waves — a three-dimensional wave simulation. In Proceedings of the 21st Symposium on Naval Hydrodynamics, pages 550–560. National Academy Press, 1997a. K. Trulsen and K. B. Dysthe. Frequency downshift in three-dimensional wave trains in a deep basin. J. Fluid Mech., 352:359–373, 1997b. K. Trulsen, I. Kliakhandler, K. B. Dysthe, and M. G. Velarde. On weakly nonlinear modulation of waves on deep water. Phys. Fluids, 12:2432–2437, 2000. D. A. G. Walker, P. H. Taylor, and R. Eatock Taylor. The shape of large surface waves on the open sea and the Draupner New Year wave. Appl. Ocean Res., 26:73–83, 2004. V. E. Zakharov. Stability of periodic waves of finite amplitude on the surface of a deep fluid. J. Appl. Mech. Tech. Phys., 9:190–194, 1968. 52