iacomelli, piccinno and villoresi
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Climate Change, Sustainable Energy, and
Caron Finance: The Kyoto Bond
Aldo Iacomellia*, Emanuele Piccinno, Daniele Villoresi
Rome University “La Sapienza” – CIRPS; REIL
abstract
The Kyoto Protocol requires a 5.2% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from
developed countries. This is an important starting point both to prevent climate
change and to start to implement new Sustainable Energy policy for a Sustainable
Economy.
At the local level (from regions to cities) lower cost/risk energy portfolios can be
developed by adjusting the conventional mix of energy sources and by including low
cost Rational Use of Energy and Energy Efficiency tools, greater amounts of fixedcost Renewable Energies and by using the additional financial resources coming
from carbon finance. The carbon market can increase investment in renewable
energies. This paper proposes a new financial instrument called the Kyoto Bond.
Kyoto Bonds would have the following characteristics:
●
The capital collected would be invested in local projects that would help
reach local energetic policy targets, and allow investors to invest their capital in tangible and controlled operations;
●
The performance of Kyoto Bonds has two different natures:
➣ Financial performance: a fixed coupon bond with a lower percentage performance than other over-the-counter instruments;
➣ Non-financial performance: the increase of social and environmental
benefits;
●
Double parallel accounting showing the real value of non-financial
performance that, summed to fixed earning, is higher than market medium
performance.
●
The implementation of energy policies at the local level is more costeffective and reliable than generalized and unrealistic energy policies.
* Corresponding author Tel.:
+390654889206; fax:
+390586213321, e-mail
address: aldo.iacomelli@
uniroma1.it (A. Iacomelli).
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from debate to design: a report on the work of the reil network 2007-08
Keywords: oil depletion, economy and environment, sustainable development,
Kyoto bond, energy commodity.
1.
introduction
The “Fourth Assessment Report” (FAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) reaffirms that both past and future anthropogenic carbon dioxide
(CO2) emissions are a source of danger for the climate system.
Figure 1 Global-average radiative forcing (RF) estimates and ranges in 2005 for anthropogenic
carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and other important agents and
mechanisms. (source: IPCC FAR 2007)
It is clear that from now onwards the supply of energy will need to be provided by
a wider rational use of energy. This includes demand-side management policies,
energy efficiency, use of renewable energies, hydrogen technologies, and highly
efficient clean technologies. The Rational Use of Energy also needs to include strong
policies and measures towards an exit strategy to oil.
Policy makers should seriously consider the issues of implementation of Rational
Use of Energy, renewable energy targets, and renewable energy portfolio standards.
This is necessary both to comply with the Kyoto Protocol and to achieve some level
of independence from fossil fuels. In addition, society needs to resist the belief that
renewable energy adoption in the energy source mix increases overall generating
costs because renewable energy seems to be “more expensive” on a stand alone basis.
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Figure 2 Power sector CO2 emissions by country 1990-2030 (Source IEA)
At local levels (from regions to cities) lower cost/risk energy portfolios can be
developed by adjusting the conventional energy mix and by including low cost Rational
Use of Energy and energy efficiency tools, greater amounts of fixed-cost renewables,
and using the additionality coming from carbon finance. Adding low cost Rational Use
of Energy and energy efficiency tools and fixed-cost generating technologies to a fossil
fuel generating portfolio serves to lower overall energy generating costs and risks. Policy
makers should consider the additional income and benefits (economical and
environmental) of market tools from Tradable Renewable Energy Certificates (TRECs),
the “Kyoto Bond” proposed in this paper, or Certified Emission Reductions.
2.
the johannesburg milestone: energy for local
development
The World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg strongly
reaffirmed the commitment to the Rio principles, the full implementation of Agenda
21 and the Programme for the Further Implementation of Agenda 21, and also
committed the member nations to achieving the internationally agreed development
goals, including those contained in the United Nations Millennium Declaration
through the “Plan of implementation.” To this end, concrete actions and measures are
needed at all levels along with enhanced international cooperation, all taking into
account the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities as set out in
Principle 7 of the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development.
There are three components to sustainable development. These interdependent
and mutually reinforcing pillars of sustainable development are:
●
economic development;
●
social development; and
●
environmental protection.
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from debate to design: a report on the work of the reil network 2007-08
Poverty eradication, changing unsustainable patterns of production and
consumption, and protecting and managing the natural resource base of economic
and social development are overarching objectives of, and essential requirements for,
sustainable development. The main pillar of local development is energy supply and
management which promotes economic development.
At WSSD in Johannesburg the nations weren’t able to reach an agreement about
targets and deadlines for actions needed to prevent climate change and to avoid
energy shocks. Nevertheless, one outcome of Johannesburg is to increase the
proportion of renewable energy sources in the total global energy supply, recognizing
the roles of national and voluntary regional targets and initiatives. In addition, they
agreed on the importance developing and utilizing indigenous energy sources and
infrastructures and promoting rural community participation, in order to develop
and utilize renewable energy technologies while finding simple and local solutions.
The local dimension is key to implementing on-the-ground solutions and to
facilitating access to energy as a poverty eradication measure.
Actions at all levels should include:
●
improving access to reliable, affordable, economically viable, socially
acceptable and environmentally sound energy services and resources;
●
enhancing rural electrification and decentralizing energy systems;
●
increasing use of renewables;
●
enhancing energy efficiency;
●
capacity-building;
●
financial and innovative financing mechanisms;
●
technological assistance;
●
improving access to modern biomass technologies and fuelwood sources and
supplies for local community in developing countries;
●
developing national energy policies and regulatory frameworks and
implementing them at the local level;
●
creating the necessary economic, social and institutional conditions in the
energy sector to improve access to reliable, affordable, economically viable,
socially acceptable and environmentally sound energy services;
●
promoting public-private partnerships.
Technology transfer must be realized in a mutually agreed upon way between the
developed and developing countries. Actions should include:
●
developing domestic programmes for energy efficiency;
●
providing environmentally sound technology transfer;
●
eliminating barriers to the diffusion of environmentally sound technologies;
●
developing capacity-building at national and regional levels;
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●
developing and disseminating alternative energy technologies with the goal
of giving a greater share of the energy mix to renewable energies
technologies;
●
promoting Best Available Technologies and Best Environmental Practice in
the energy sector;
●
promoting research programmes for further development in energy
technology;
●
providing financial assistance to developing countries;
●
involving the private sector in the energy field;
●
developing policies that improve transparency and information about
energy markets and services;
●
mobilizing adequate financial instruments and resources.
The international community should develop policies and measures to reduce
market distortions and promote energy systems compatible with sustainable
development. This can be done through the use of improved market signals and by
removing market distortions, including restructuring taxation and phasing out
harmful subsidies, especially subsidies to fossil fuels, large hydro and nuclear. To this
end, action is needed for the inclusion of externalities in energy costs. Externalities
that need to be taken into account include the environmental and social impacts and
related costs of energy generation and uses.
3.
stopping the growth of greenhouse gas emissions
with the rational use of energy and new energy
services and sources
Governments should use several instruments to choose and support preferable
energy technologies or innovative energy products such as:
●
fiscal measures;
●
policies and guidelines;
●
information, labelling, voluntary agreements, other programs of assistance
and support;
●
eesearch and development of new technologies; and
●
energy commodity and financial energy related tools such as the Kyoto Bond.
Energy policy measures should focus on demand side management tools,
maximizing the amount of energy produced by renewable sources and on
minimizing the costs of production of energy from renewable sources.
One way to support preferable energy technologies and innovative energy
products is by using price instruments, for renewable energy sources to try to create a
cost competitive supply. For this purpose, a gross remuneration is assured to the
producers, with a guaranteed fixed price that is higher than the price of energy from
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from debate to design: a report on the work of the reil network 2007-08
conventional sources. Thus, the differential revenue is an incentive to open the
market, from the supply side, and to the removal of entry barriers. After fixing the
unit price and after necessary fluctuations, the quantity produced at that fixed price
will be freely defined and stabilized with time by the market.
With quantity instruments, on the other hand, it is the amount of energy produced
that is fixed, leaving the price floating to set the level of production. Auctions are then
used to select producers according to lower costs. The difference between the price
instruments and the quantity instruments is the difference between price and costs. In
evaluating the two options, it is necessary to distinguish between short term and long
term price and costs.
In the short term, the auction mechanism will lead to lower production costs for
energy from renewable sources and therefore is more efficient. Also, in the short term,
the quantity mechanism will lead to an extra price for the community, an extra price
that should not be considered different from a public investment in private research:
the aim is to recover that investment, achieve a growing technical efficiency and,
therefore, minimize costs in the future.
In the long term the guaranteed price mechanism may result in the re-investment
of the differential revenues, in technology research the results of which can be useful
to all producers and which will gradually lead to lower costs. (Figure 3)
Figure 3 PV learning curves forecast on global scale
10
Learning factor 20%
Learning factor 15% --------
€/Wp
42
1
Year 2002
1330 MWp
Year 2010
55000 MWp
Year 2020
225000 MWp
Year 2030
1250000 MWp
0,1
1
10
00
1 000
GWp cumulative
The first phase costs of a new technology tend to remain inflexible or only slightly
decreasing. In Italy the PV “feed in tariff ” system is stimulating a rapid growth
market. This has already happened in Germany, Spain, and France, with small sized
distributed generation plants (from 1 – 20 kW up to 200 kW). This rapid market
growth has resulted in larger generation and decreased energy prices. (Figure 4)
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Figure 4 PV learning curves forecast in Italy with the new law on “Feed in tariffs”
Learning factor 20%
10
€ /Wp
Learning factor 15%
------
1
Year 2005 32 MWp
(100 MWp authorized
with “feed in tariffs”)
Year 2010
750 MWp with
“feed in tariffs”
Year 2020
3.500 MWp with
“feed in tariffs”
Year 2030
12.500 MWp
with market mechanism
Year 2040
27.500 MWp
with market mechanism
0,1
1
10
1000
GWp cumulative in Italy
From the moment of market creation of preferable energy technologies and
innovative energy products, prices should be fixed by the pioneer producers at a lower
level than the initial actual costs, because these costs are normally so high that they
would exclude every approach to the market. For example, in the case of energy
efficiency, the market mechanism entails preferences for products with greater
efficiency and marginalizes the poorest products. The transformation of energy
products markets will lead to the development of better technologies and deeper
diffusion of new technologies, if compared with the starting point.
New technologies need to be supported with success through the different stages
of the innovation process. Public support should be sought throughout the entire
process, through all the different phases. At the same time, technologies and
techniques already existing today will improve performance and reduce costs.
Innovative business strategies could facilitate the transformation of the energy
market. In a very simple way, until not long ago, the core business of a utility was
selling energy to domestic and industrial clients. The key factor to success was the
price of electricity. In fact, within a regulated market, any transformation of the
market itself was practically impossible. The deregulation of electricity and gas is
increasing market competition. Looking at the most advanced experiences in
northern Europe (Nordic pool), the price of electricity at first decreased, almost as if
the price itself was the only competitive factor.
In general, those companies with the most competitive prices and the lowest costs
will prevail in the market. But, without low-cost electricity, how can an energy
company survive in the market in the long term? A business does not only sell a
product or a technology, but is something that involves the customers and its
distribution channels. It is not only a question of new technologies, but a new way of
offering products and services. Utilities can benefit the market if they are able to be
innovative.
Where does the money go in the cycle of energy “value”? The deregulation of the
utility business has started. Previously, when production, transmission and
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from debate to design: a report on the work of the reil network 2007-08
Figure 5 Technology push and market pull through the incentives support.
Government
Policy Interventions
Market Pull
Business
Academia
R&D
Demonstration
Supported Commercommercial cial
Pre-commercial
Consumers
Product/Technology Push
Investments
Investors
distribution were in the same hands, consumers purchased energy from energy
producers. After deregulation of the utility monopoly in Europe, frequently
consumers purchase electricity from local distributors.
In the future, profits could be realized by selling energy services to consumers
using carbon finance tools. This will happen when consumers have the ability to
choose between distribution options.
Table 1 Estimation of potential employers in energy sector by different source for a TWh of
production.
Source
Oil
Oil Off-Shore
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Wood
Hydro
Mini – hydro
Wind
PV
Ethanol (from biomass)
Workers (workers-year) (TWh)
260
265
250
370
75
1000
250
120
918
7.600
4.000
The transition towards sustainable energy for a sustainable economy will be
dominated by gas and coal, but, since the transition from one energy system to
another takes decades, the foundation of a future system needs to be built now.
Therefore, a full application of the Kyoto Protocol and for the European Union set of
laws, including the Emission Trading Scheme Directive 87/2003 is imperative, along
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with a strong political shove, investments to direct technology innovation,
transformation of the energy market, and moves toward rational uses of energy and
renewables. These innovations will have the added benefit of employment
possibilities, as shown in Table 1.
4.
carbon finance at the local level
The Kyoto Protocol is a framework for testing programs, rules, measures and market
instruments for reaching emission reduction commitments without compromising
energy supply security, the competitiveness of industrial systems and economic
growth. The Kyoto Protocol offers the opportunity to promote the integration of
environmental and energy policies, provided that the flexible elements and market
instruments under the Kyoto Protocol are fully taken into account and used.
Under the Kyoto Protocol developed countries can achieve their emission
reduction targets mainly with domestic measures. In 1997 the Kyoto Protocol
developed mandatory targets and International Emission Trading (IET) options. To
attract additional financial resources for CO2 emissions reductions, the Kyoto
Protocol created joined programmes with economies in transition (Joint
Implementation), or with developing countries (Clean Development Mechanism). In
doing so, the Kyoto Protocol has integrated environmental objectives and economic
requirements in an innovative manner.
To reduce global CO2 emissions and the consumption of fossil fuels, IET, Joint
Implementation and Clean Development Mechanism projects with high levels of
energy efficiency and renewable energy components generate lower marginal costs
than projects that the most developed countries would need to implement to reach
the same targets on the internal market. The most recent studies estimate the
marginal cost for a one-tonne reduction of CO2 at about €10-18 in the European
Union, and about €2-4 in developing countries. The European Union Emission
Trading System Directive implementation has pushed the price of one tonne of CO2
up to €23 in March 2008 within the EU market and will stimulate the greenhouse gas
commodity market worldwide.
It has been estimated that the revenue from carbon finance from the years 2008 –
2012 will be 110-150 billion Euros per year of additional capital. The worldwide
investment for primary energy will be about six trillion Euros (950 billion in China,
800 billion in North America, 650 billion in the EU) by 2018.
Most of projected carbon finance transactions are project-based, and the
emissions reduction credits are intended either for Kyoto Protocol or other
greenhouse gas reduction schemes (Figure 6).
Buyers have various motives in engaging in transactions in the global carbon
market:
i.
immediate compliance in the national markets, where buyers seek to
comply with existing legislative obligations and constraints;
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from debate to design: a report on the work of the reil network 2007-08
ii. Kyoto pre-compliance where buyers expect the project to be registered
under either JI or CDM;
iii. voluntary compliance where buyers aim to use the emission reductions to
meet part of their voluntary targets;
iv. retail schemes where buyers wish to be climate-neutral in order to
demonstrate their social responsibility or promote particular brand.
Other objectives might include:
i.
learning by doing;
ii. experimenting with diverse contract structures;
iii. influencing policy;
iv. broadening the envelope of flexibility;
v.
public relations;
vi. goodwill.
The fragmented nature of the global carbon market generates different prices for
emissions reductions. Allowance markets generate high emission reduction prices
since the delivery risks are believed to be minimal. Although Joint Implementation
and the Clean Development Mechanism are both project-based, the World Bank’s
Prototype Carbon Fund pays higher prices for Emission Reduction Units since Joint
Implementation is supported by Host Country Agreements and Assigned Amount
Units, which reduces buyer’s exposure to risks.
In order to achieve global greenhouse gas reductions, it is necessary to implement
real projects on the ground. Using tradable certificates such as the proposed Kyoto
Bond would foster the use of renewable energy and energy efficiency at the local level.
5.
fostering the use of renewable energies and energy
at the local level
Government support schemes for renewable energies are not new in the EU, especially
at national levels. After the first schemes were developed in Portugal (1988), the
Netherlands (1989) and Germany (1990), all member countries implemented support
mechanisms. At the European level, the regulatory framework was established in 2003.
Under the SAVE program, the European Commission financed setting up regional
and local energy management agencies. The role of these agencies is to support the
strengthening of renewable energy markets. They have not been able to compete with
traditional sources of energy; many of them are short of funds to implement
programs in an effective manner.
Energy agencies need capital and long term investments to implement
programmes and create profits. Citizens often don’t realize how these agencies are the
means to reach a greater level of benefits when the programs are well implemented
and efficaciously executed. Agencies like the SAVE program cannot reach the entire
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CDM CERs
New Zealand
Switzerland
UK
JI
-E
RU
s
E
ha RU
ss s
r
K m ho or
YO o u V
TO niz ld b ER
s
e
BO w e
N ith
D
Can trade ERUs or AAUs
amongst each
each other
other
amongst
Annex I countries
with a reduction target
EU-25 bubble
Portugal
Italy
Spain
France
Netherlands
EU MSs
Ireland
CDM - CERs
Brazil
y
CERs or VERs
Other developing countries
Egypt
Non-Annex I countries;
without a reduction target
Syria
China
Morocco
Developing countries – CDM projects
CDM CERs
Companies and consumer buying KYOTO BOND as CO2 reduction units
and support local investment for sustainable development done to the
Emitting Energy Agency on behalf of the Municipality
E U -E T S
1 4 . 000 p la nts c a n tra d e E U e m is s io n a llo
KYOTO BOND Voluntary
market among different
stakeholders integrated
with the Kyoto Protocol
Emission Trading and EU
ETS.
Trading among
companies
Japan
Poland
Latvia
new
EU MSs
Norway
Ukraine
Canada
Kyoto Protocol game
2008 – 2012
A us tra lia
US A
Russia
E IT s
Figure 6 KYOTO BOND in energy commodity trading systems (Kyoto scheme, EU ETS, Voluntary scheme) Kyoto Protocol game 1 (2008 – 2012 without US and Australia,
but after 2012 US and Australia will join the Kyoto game 2 (with China and India with targets). (Source: elaboration from MEDREP IMET report 2006).
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from debate to design: a report on the work of the reil network 2007-08
population and/or the Kyoto targets because they haven’t enough financial and
technical support to generate enough benefits and projects.
However, energy agencies could have a more important role if they could collect
both public and private capital, operating as a public company with a wide
shareholder base. In this way they could operate at the local level, supported by a local
population of shareholders who would be the beneficiaries of their energy programs.
Figure 7 Energy Agencies Structure
Private Investors
(Local Population)
Public Investors
€
€
€
Implementation
of energy and
environmental
policies
Trader
Energy Agencies
Social and
environmental
benefit
Activities
E.S.Co.
Information and
diffusion of
RES and EE technologies
and best practce
A company organized in this manner would result in obtaining social and
environmental targets as well as monetary profits. Investments could be oriented to
particular policy instruments that will spawn benefits and revenues over time. The
strict connection with territory and local population is an important incentive to
produce greater results in a more efficient manner. Investors realize two different
benefits at the same time: economic, deriving from the return on investments, and
social, deriving from the environmental benefits.
With greater financial support, and with the necessity of making profits, energy
agencies must assume a more important role in the energy market, both with an
operating role as an energy savings company, and as a trader for all market based
incentive mechanisms adopted to support rational use of energy, energy efficiency
and renewable energy.
6.
kyoto bond: economic rent, environmental benefits
and citizens’ wellness
In previous paragraphs, the authors support the importance of a wide shareholder
base to develop policies and programs at the local level. In this way energy agencies
could operate in energy markets and reach tangible results with environmental and
social implications.
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49
Private funding would be limited to investors at the local level who can realize the
benefits created by the efficacious implementing of sustainable investments. This
strict connection with investors’ wellness also suggests creating different financial
instruments that can emphasize the relevance of the environmental and social effects
rather than only financial results. These financial instruments would be defined as
Kyoto Bonds and would have the following characteristics:
●
The capital collected would be invested in local projects that would permit
reaching the targets of local energy policies, thus giving investors the ability
to invest their capital for tangible and controlled operations;
●
The performance of Kyoto Bonds has two different natures:
➣ Financial performance: a fixed coupon bond with a lower percentage performance than other over-the-counter instruments;
➣ Non-financial performance: the increase of social and environmental
benefits.
●
Double parallel accounting showing the real value of non-financial
performance that, summed to fixed earnings, is higher than market medium
performance;
●
Non-financial performance would be benchmarked with European or
national targets of emission reduction derived from the Kyoto agreement.
The economic valuation of non-economic goods, such as social wellness and
environment, is difficult. It is important to have a transparent instrument that will
highlight the non-financial performance of Kyoto Bonds, which will help ensure the
success of such innovative financial products.
The Environmental Performance Index1 (EPI) is an interesting instrument that
would be useful for Kyoto Bond valuation. The index takes into consideration all
elements connected with sustainability to point out a value for the environmental
Figure 8 Kyoto Bond
KYOTO BOND
Corporate Bond
Financial
performance
Environmental
and
social extra
profit
Kyoto
National
Emission
Reduction
Target
Performance
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1
“2008 ENVIRONMENTAL
PERFORMANCE INDEX” Yale
Center for Environmental Law
& Policy – Yale University,
Center for International Earth
Science Information Network
(CIESIN) – Columbia University
50
from debate to design: a report on the work of the reil network 2007-08
performance of countries, considering two macro objectives (environmental health
and ecosystem vitality) through 25 environmental indicators divided into 8 different
policy categories.
The relevance of the EPI is that it provides a comparison of the environmental
performance of policies in different countries, and provides a ranking which shows
the distance of each country from a “perfect sustainability” target chosen by the EPI
working group.
For Kyoto Bond applications, the climate change policy category is key, in which
the following indicator parameters are monitored:
●
emissions/capita;
●
emissions/electricity generated;
●
industrial carbon intensity.
Inside the EPI framework, the climate change policy category accounts for 25
percent of the EPI value, and considers aggregated data at national levels for macro
categories.
The Kyoto Bond valuation would require the disaggregation of data at the local
level, creating a Local Environmental Performance Index (LEPI) framework that
would consider different categories and data.
There is ongoing research to build a LEPI that will emphasize the environmental
performance of Kyoto Bond investments in order to give a monetary evaluation of
the environmental and social performance of Kyoto Bond investments.
7.
conclusion
The implementation of energy policies at the local level is more cost-effective and
reliable than generalized and unrealistic energy policies.
In this paper the authors suggest a different method, one that would increase the
efficiency of programs and derive environmental and social benefits: the Kyoto Bond.
For success, the Kyoto Bond requires the following:
1.
involvement of public local investors;
2.
concrete programmes and efficient actuation;
3.
environmental and social benefits valued by the local population.
The Kyoto Bond would mix public and private investors, focusing the beneficial
effects of renewable energy and energy efficiency programs by offering an innovative
financial instrument that would give great transparency to the results of
environmental and energy policy.
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