HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES Hydrol. Process. 23, 1565– 1574 (2009) Published online 30 March 2009 in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/hyp.7268 Spatial assessment of hydrologic alteration across the Pearl River Delta, China, and possible underlying causes Qiang Zhang*1 Chong-Yu Xu,2 Yongqin David Chen3 and Tao Yang4 1 Institute of Space and Earth Information Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, China 2 Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, China State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulics Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China 3 4 Abstract: The alterations of the water level across the Pearl River Delta (PRD) were investigated using a ‘range of variability approach’ (RVA) based on monthly water level datasets extracted from 17 gauging stations. A mapping method was used to illustrate the spatial patterns in the degrees of alteration of water levels. The results indicated that more stations showing moderate and high alterations in monthly mean maximum and minimum water levels when compared with monthly maximum and minimum water levels. River channels characterized by higher alterations of water levels were observed mainly in the regions north of 22° 300 N. Alterations of water levels across the PRD were a consequence of various influencing factors. However, changed hypsography due to extensive and intensive human activities, particularly the large-scale dredging and excavation of the river sand, may be taken as one of the major causes for the substantial hydrologic alteration. This study indicated that the river channels characterized by altered water levels are mostly those characterized by highly and moderately intensive sand dredging. The changed ratio of the streamflow between Makou and Sanshui stations, the major upstream flow control stations, also influenced the water level alterations of the Pearl River delta. The results of this study will be of great significance in water resources management and better human mitigation of the natural hazards due to the altered water level under the changing environment. Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. KEY WORDS hydrologic alteration; water level; range of variability approach; Pearl River Delta Received 25 July 2008; Accepted 26 October 2007 INTRODUCTION River deltas are mostly heavily populated and play a paramount role in regional economic development. The population of the world is increasingly moving towards the coast—about 60% (¾3Ð6 billion) of the world’s population lives within 60 km (37 miles) of the coast (UNESCO, 1998). Human settlements, large cities on river deltas and a large proportion of the global economic productivity derived from river deltas render them exceptionally important in the development of human society. This may be why the river deltas are receiving increasing concerns from hydrologists, fluvial geomorphologists and policymakers (Pont et al., 2002; Syvitski et al., 2005; Ericson et al., 2006; Yang et al., 2006). The Pearl River Delta (PRD) has a very dense agglomeration of over 100 towns and cities and has been the fastest developing region in the economy of China since the country adopted the ‘open door and reform’ policy in the late 1970s. On less than 0Ð5% of the country’s territory, the PRD produces about 20% of the national GDP, attracts about 30% of Foreign Direct Investment, and contributes about 40% of exports * Correspondence to: Qiang Zhang, Institute of Space and Earth Information Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, China. E-mail: zhangqnj@gmail.com Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (therefore called the ‘World Factory’). Another important attribute of the PRD is that it has one of the most complicated deltaic drainage systems in the world with a drainage density of 0Ð68–1Ð07 km km2 (Chen and Chen, 2002). Due to rapid urbanization and industrialization, the PRD region has witnessed environmental changes within only one to two decades whereas comparable changes in developed countries may have occurred over as much as one century of development. Human activities such as engineering construction and other modifications of the Pearl River network in such a changing environment might cause hydrologic alterations in terms of river flows, stages, and flow partition at river bifurcations, channel cross-sections and hydraulic gradients. Changes in these hydrologic regimes may have crucial implications for almost all aspects of water resources management in the region, including flood protection, land use, water supply, channel navigation, and water pollution control. Abnormally high or low water levels have the potential to give rise to salinity intrusion, flood inundation and waterlogging, negatively influencing the economic development and human activities in the PRD. Therefore, hydrologic alterations and, presumably, associated causes have already raised considerable concerns from Chinese researchers (Luo et al., 2000; Liu et al., 2003; Chen et al., 2004; Yang et al., 2002). 1566 Q. ZHANG ET AL. Growing requirements for building materials stimulated extensive and intensive in-channel dredging and sand mining. During the period 1984–1999, the total amount of the sand removed from the river channel was about 17Ð6 times more than the annual sediment deposition and about 120 times more than the total suspended sediment transport of the Pearl River (Luo et al., 2000). In a recent study, Luo et al. (2007) discussed two side effects of in-channel sand excavation on the hydrology of the Pearl River Delta: (1) positive effects are decreased chances of flood damage, improved navigating conditions, and more water inputs to rapid economically growing regions; (2) negative effects include increased grade slope and instability of the riverbank, disruption of navigation in upstream dredging pits during dry seasons, and brackish-water intrusion. Thus, quantitative evaluation of hydrologic alterations across the PRD will be of scientific and practical importance in regional water resources management and human mitigation of hydrologic hazards such as flood, drought, and salinity intrusion. Numerous researchers have developed hydrologic indices with the aim of quantifying the hydrologic alterations which were believed to be sensitive to various human perturbations. Previous studies usually emphasized individual indices such as the average flow, mean daily flow, skewness of streamflow, peak discharge, flood frequency, slope of flood-frequency curves, seasonal distribution of monthly streamflow, flow and flood frequency duration curves, and annual discharge series analysis. However, more recent studies have tended to adopt multivariable approaches to quantify the hydrologic alterations (Hughes and James, 1989; Richter et al., 1996, 1997, 1998; Extence et al., 1999; Clausen and Biggs, 2000; Pettit et al., 2001; Shiau and Wu, 2004). To quantitively evaluate the degree to which human activities impact the hydrologic regimes within an ecosystem, Richter et al. (1996) proposed an approach referred to as ‘Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration’ (IHA). This technique is based on either hydrologic data available within an ecosystem or model-generated data. Numerous researchers have illustrated that the range of streamflow regime is one of the major driving forces influencing the river ecosystem (Stanford and Ward, 1996; Poff et al., 1997) and is also one of the key factors sustaining aquatic environments (NRC, 1992). Richter et al. (1997) proposed the Range of Variability Approach (RVA) with the aim of attaining river management eco-targets. This approach (IHA, Richter et al., 1995, 1996) involves 33 hydrologic parameters devoted to measuring hydrologic alterations in terms of streamflow magnitude, timing, frequency, duration and rate of change. This method has been applied to evaluate hydrologic alterations in many river basins of the world. Galat and Lipkin (2000) studied the hydrologic alterations of the Missouri River using the Index of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA), indicating that the river flows were heavily influenced by the reservoirs. Shiau and Wu (2004) applied the RVA to investigate the hydrologic alterations within two time Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. intervals separated by the construction of a diversion weir on Chou-Shui Creek, Taiwan, suggesting that natural flow restoration was expected to promote the natural stream biota. Yang et al. (2008) studied the spatial variability of hydrologic alterations due to dam construction along the middle and lower Yellow River, China, over five decades. The RVA method was believed to be a practical and effective approach to river restoration planning. However, there are still some defects in the previous literature about hydrologic alteration assessment (Yang et al., 2008): (1) the validity of the hydrologic alteration assessment must be carefully considered when flow records are insufficient for pre- or post-impact periods or both; (2) since there is usually more than one dam on a river, it is hard to distinguish which dam plays the major role in influencing the degree of hydrologic alteration downstream. Within the PRD, no dams were constructed, so the change points decided by the Lepage model and Bayesian model (Chen et al., 2008) were accepted as the time thresholds to evaluate the degree of alteration of water levels before and after change points. Hydrologic alterations before and after the change points were analysed using the technique of Richter et al. (1995, 1996). It should be noted here that the data available in the PRD are monthly data. Therefore, in this study we will modify the technique proposed by Richter et al. (1995, 1996) so that the modified approach can satisfy our requirements in quantitative evaluation of hydrologic alterations (alterations of water levels in this study) based on the monthly water level data we have for the PRD. This study attempts to answer the questions: (1) to what degree do the water levels alter across the PRD? and (2) what could be the alteration behaviour of the water levels on different time scales, such as monthly and annually? Thus, the objectives of this study are to qualitatively evaluate the degree of alteration of water levels and to investigate the spatial variability of alterations in water levels across the PRD using the RVA and a mapping technique. We believe that this study should be scientifically and practically significant in regional human mitigation of natural hazards and environmental conservation under the changing environment in the coastal regions. DATA PREPARATION The hydrologic data used in this study are: (1) monthly maximum and minimum water levels; and (2) monthly mean high and low water levels. All these data were collected from 17 gauging stations in the PRD region (Figure 1). Table I displays detailed information regarding the water level data. The time duration of the dataset covers 1958–2005. The water level data before 1989 are extracted from the Hydrologic Year Book (published by the Hydrologic Bureau of the Ministry of Water Resources of China) and those after 1989 are provided by the Water Bureau of Guangdong Province. Figure 1 Hydrol. Process. 23, 1565– 1574 (2009) DOI: 10.1002/hyp 1567 HYDROLOGIC ALTERATION ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER DELTA Figure 1. Location of the Pearl River Delta in China and gauging stations. The river channels denoted with numbers are where the gauging stations are located. The names of the river channels are as follows: 1: North mainstream East River; 2: Modaomen channel; 3: Hengmen channel; 4: Yamen channel; 5: Jitimen channel; 6: Qianhangxian channel; 7: Xijiang channel; 8: Xi’nanyong channel; 9: Ronggui channel; 10: Jiaomen channel; 11: Shunde channel; 12: Shawan channel; 13: Beijiang Channel; 14: Tanjiang channel; 15: South mainstem East River; 16: Hongqili channel; 17: Xiaolan channel; 18: Hutiaomen channel. The Pearl River Delta is divided into three parts based on its geomorphology: I the upper Pearl River Delta; II the middle Pearl River Delta; and III the lower Pearl River Delta. Region I, region II and region III divided by dashed lines are the upper, middle and lower PRD Table I. Dataset of water levels in the Pearl River Delta and the river channels where the gauging stations are located Upper PRD Middle PRD Lower PRD Station name Longitude Latitude Series length Missing data River channels Sanshui Jiangmen Laoyagang Nanhua Rongqi Sanduo Shizui Xiaolan Dasheng Denglongshan Hengmen Huangjin Huangpu Nansha Sanshakou Sishengwei Zhuyin 112° 500 113° 070 113° 120 113° 050 113° 160 112° 590 112° 540 113° 140 113° 320 113° 240 113° 310 113° 170 113° 280 113° 340 113° 300 113° 360 113° 170 23° 100 22° 360 23° 140 22° 480 22° 470 22° 590 22° 280 22° 410 23° 030 22° 140 22° 350 22° 080 23° 060 22° 450 22° 540 22° 550 22° 220 1958–2005 1958–2005 1958–2005 1958–2005 1958–2005 1958–2005 1959–2005 1975–2005 1958–2005 1959–2005 1959–2005 1965–2005 1958–2005 1963–2005 1958–2005 1958–2005 1959–2005 Sep.-Dec. 1959; 1960 2000 Dec. 1959 Beijiang channel Xijiang channel Xi’nanyong channel Ronggui channel Ronggui c Shunde channel Tanjiang channel Xiaolan channel North mainstem East River Modaomen channel Hengmen channel Jitimen channel Qianhangxian channel Jiaomen channel Shawan channel South mainstem East River Modaomen channel shows that these 17 gauging stations cover the PRD well and can reflect the main variation properties of the water levels. Missing data were inserted based on data at neighbouring stations using a regression method (R2 > 0Ð8 and R2 > 0Ð95). Single missing data items were replaced by the average of neighbouring values (Chen et al., 2008). Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Nov.-Dec. 1968; 2000 Jun.-Dec. 1963 Jan.-Sep. 1958 1959 1964 METHODOLOGY The original RVA uses 33 hydrologic parameters to evaluate the hydrologic alterations, which are categorized into five groups addressing the magnitude, timing, frequency, duration, and rate of change (Richter et al., Hydrol. Process. 23, 1565– 1574 (2009) DOI: 10.1002/hyp 1568 Q. ZHANG ET AL. 1997). However the data we have do not allow us to follow exactly the hydrologic parameters defined by Richter et al. (1997). Therefore, in this study, we followed the main theme of the RVA technique but modified the hydrologic parameters to achieve our research objectives. The parameters adopted were: monthly maximum (minimum) water levels, annual maximum (minimum) water levels, and monthly mean high (low) water levels, and these hydrologic parameters are listed in Table II. Generally, the mean, standard deviation, and range of these parameters were computed with reference to the change point time intervals. Here we made the time the change point took place as the reference time with which we divided the whole time series into two parts. The mean, standard deviation, and range of the parameters defined were computed in the two time intervals. There are many statistical techniques available to detect change point within the time series. The statistical methods commonly used to detect change points are the Bayesian model (Chernoff and Zacks, 1963; Berger, 1985; Kotz and Wu, 2000; Xiong and Guo, 2004), the Lepage test (Lepage, 1971), the moving t-test, and so forth. We analysed the water level time series for change point with these statistical methods, and then identified the change point with >95% confidence level. If there were more than one change points, we accepted one change point which was more significant than the others, if any. If no change point was significant, we took the change point with higher significance level for the sake of further analysis. The above change point detecting methods and the results were reported in an earlier publication (Chen et al., 2008). For the sake of concise presentation of this work, we do not list the change points in this present paper; rather, we just cite the reference and use the results. There are six time series (monthly maximum (minimum) water level; monthly mean high (low) water level; and annual maximum (minimum) water level) for each station, so there are altogether 850 time series to be analysed. After change points were determined, we followed the procedure of the RVA technique to obtain the alterations in water level across the PRD. The RVA target range of each hydrologic parameter was decided by selected percentile thresholds or a simple multiple of the standard derivations for the natural or pre-change-point water level series. The management objectives were not to have the river attain the target range every year; rather, they were to attain the range at the same frequency as occurred in the natural or prealteration water level regime. For example, attainment of Table II. Statistics of 13 indicators of hydrologic alteration of monthly maximum and monthly minimum water levels for 17 gauges in the Pearl River Delta region. DS: Dasheng station; DLS: Denglongshan station; HM: Hengmen station; HJ: Huangjin station; HP: Huangpu station; JM: Jiangmen station; LYG: Laoyagang station; NH: Nanhua station; NS: Nansha station; RQ: Rongqi station; SD: Sanduo station; SSK: Sanshakou station; SS: Sanshui station; SZ: Shizui station; SSW: Sishengwei station; XL: Xiaolan station; ZY: Zhuyin station IHA DS DLS HM HJ Monthly maximum water level Jan. 0Ð03 0Ð08 0Ð55 0Ð00 Feb. 0Ð03 0Ð43 0Ð31 0Ð14 Mar. 0Ð12 0Ð08 0Ð43 0Ð00 Apr. 0Ð23 0Ð14 0Ð37 0Ð00 May 0Ð09 0Ð29 0Ð43 0Ð00 Jun. 0Ð03 0Ð04 0Ð49 0Ð07 Jul. 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð31 0Ð00 Aug. 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð31 0Ð00 Sep. 0Ð09 0Ð14 0Ð31 0Ð07 Oct. 0Ð03 0Ð29 0Ð31 0Ð00 Nov. 0Ð20 0Ð08 0Ð49 0Ð00 Dec. 0Ð03 0Ð21 0Ð55 0Ð08 Ann. 0Ð03 0Ð08 0Ð37 0Ð00 Monthly minimum water level Jan. 0Ð31 0Ð33 0Ð07 0Ð06 Feb. 0Ð37 0Ð01 0Ð02 0Ð02 Mar. 0Ð31 0Ð06 0Ð10 0Ð06 Apr. 0Ð43 0Ð06 0Ð07 0Ð06 May 0Ð37 0Ð06 0Ð02 0Ð02 Jun. 0Ð01 0Ð11 0Ð10 0Ð02 Jul. 0Ð37 0Ð03 0Ð07 0Ð02 Aug. 0Ð31 0Ð01 0Ð10 0Ð11 Sep. 0Ð37 0Ð11 0Ð07 0Ð05 Oct. 0Ð49 0Ð11 0Ð07 0Ð15 Nov. 0Ð31 0Ð11 0Ð02 0Ð11 Dec. 0Ð31 0Ð11 0Ð07 0Ð23 Ann. 0Ð14 0Ð01 0Ð02 0Ð04 HP JM LYG NH NS RQ SD SSK SS SZ SSW XL ZY 0Ð41 0Ð23 0Ð27 0Ð27 0Ð23 0Ð23 0Ð41 0Ð27 0Ð23 0Ð23 0Ð23 0Ð27 0Ð27 0Ð96 0Ð96 0Ð96 0Ð96 1Ð05 1Ð05 1Ð05 1Ð05 1Ð05 1Ð05 0Ð88 1Ð05 1Ð05 0Ð04 0Ð12 0Ð13 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð22 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð36 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð36 0Ð43 0Ð09 0Ð09 0Ð14 0Ð06 0Ð17 0Ð06 0Ð06 0Ð25 0Ð03 0Ð06 0Ð12 0Ð09 0Ð17 0Ð09 0Ð12 0Ð09 0Ð33 0Ð01 0Ð05 0Ð18 0Ð11 0Ð18 0Ð18 0Ð18 0Ð18 0Ð11 0Ð05 0Ð33 0Ð18 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð12 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð10 0Ð17 0Ð12 0Ð26 0Ð22 0Ð12 0Ð17 0Ð17 0Ð22 0Ð14 0Ð01 0Ð07 0Ð17 0Ð14 0Ð09 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð04 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð03 0Ð33 0Ð20 0Ð52 0Ð08 0Ð40 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð20 0Ð40 0Ð14 0Ð20 0Ð20 0Ð14 0Ð19 0Ð10 0Ð31 0Ð27 0Ð10 0Ð31 0Ð19 0Ð27 0Ð14 0Ð10 0Ð19 0Ð19 0Ð02 0Ð14 0Ð02 0Ð02 0Ð02 0Ð02 0Ð02 0Ð02 0Ð02 0Ð22 0Ð13 0Ð02 0Ð02 0Ð33 0Ð06 0Ð11 0Ð33 0Ð11 0Ð11 0Ð11 0Ð01 0Ð06 0Ð39 0Ð27 0Ð11 0Ð11 0Ð20 0Ð00 0Ð06 0Ð17 0Ð06 0Ð06 0Ð00 0Ð06 0Ð01 0Ð00 0Ð11 0Ð17 0Ð07 0Ð14 0Ð23 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð06 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð33 0Ð02 0Ð04 0Ð01 0Ð16 0Ð06 0Ð16 0Ð06 0Ð04 0Ð01 0Ð10 0Ð10 0Ð06 0Ð06 0Ð01 0Ð14 0Ð04 0Ð43 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð43 0Ð14 0Ð09 0Ð14 0Ð09 0Ð30 0Ð14 0Ð30 0Ð14 0Ð07 0Ð29 0Ð00 0Ð07 0Ð13 0Ð07 0Ð07 0Ð00 0Ð14 0Ð20 0Ð43 0Ð02 0Ð28 0Ð28 0Ð33 0Ð28 0Ð33 0Ð28 1Ð00 0Ð33 0Ð28 0Ð17 0Ð33 0Ð22 0Ð14 0Ð21 0Ð13 0Ð13 0Ð03 0Ð13 0Ð13 0Ð03 0Ð13 0Ð03 0Ð13 0Ð13 0Ð10 0Ð05 0Ð17 0Ð10 0Ð26 0Ð12 0Ð07 0Ð17 0Ð17 0Ð12 0Ð12 0Ð17 0Ð22 0Ð12 0Ð01 0Ð14 0Ð09 0Ð01 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð09 0Ð14 0Ð09 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð36 0Ð10 0Ð05 0Ð11 0Ð11 0Ð11 0Ð05 0Ð10 0Ð10 0Ð05 0Ð10 0Ð05 0Ð05 0Ð08 0Ð04 0Ð21 0Ð21 0Ð02 0Ð15 0Ð21 0Ð02 0Ð15 0Ð21 0Ð27 0Ð02 0Ð09 0Ð17 0Ð10 0Ð05 0Ð10 0Ð18 0Ð10 0Ð10 0Ð05 0Ð10 0Ð05 0Ð10 0Ð20 0Ð18 0Ð08 0Ð10 0Ð14 0Ð19 0Ð08 0Ð05 0Ð05 0Ð14 0Ð19 0Ð10 0Ð05 0Ð19 0Ð21 0Ð16 Moderate (0Ð34– 0Ð67) and high alterations (0Ð68–1) marked in bold. 0–0Ð33 denotes little or no alteration. Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Hydrol. Process. 23, 1565– 1574 (2009) DOI: 10.1002/hyp HYDROLOGIC ALTERATION ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER DELTA Figure 2. Spatial distribution of mean degree of alteration in monthly maximum water levels for the Pearl River Delta area, China: (1) light grey zones represent little or no alteration 0–33% (L, low); (2) medium grey zones represent moderate alteration 34–67% (M, medium); (3) dark grey zones represent high degrees of alteration 68–100% (H, high) RVA target range defined by the 25th and 75th percentile values of a particular parameter would be expected in only 50% of years. The degree to which the RVA target ranges were not attained was accepted as a measure of hydrologic alteration. This measure of hydrologic alteration, expressed as a percentage, can be obtained as: Observed frequency - Expected frequency ð 100 Expected frequency 1 Initially, ‘observed’ is the count of years with the observed values of the hydrologic parameter falling within the targeted range; ‘expected’ is the count of the years with the values expected to fall within the targeted range. Hydrologic alteration will be zero when the observed frequency of post-change-point annual values falling within the RVA target range equals the expected frequency (The Nature Conservancy, 2001). RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Alteration degrees for hydrologic items of individual month Table II displays the absolute values of hydrologic alteration indicators in terms of monthly maximum (minimum) water levels and annual maximum (minimum) water levels for 17 gauging stations in the study region. It indicates that more stations show higher hydrologic Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 1569 Figure 3. Spatial distribution of mean degree of alteration in monthly minimum water levels for the Pearl River Delta area, China: (1) light grey zones represent little or no alteration 0–33% (L, low); (2) medium grey zones represent moderate alteration 34–67% (M, medium); (3) dark grey zones represent a high degree of alteration 68–100% (H, high) alterations in terms of monthly maximum water level when compared with monthly minimum water level. High alteration of monthly maximum water level can be observed in Jiangmen station, and moderate alteration in Hengmen station and Dasheng station. As for the specific time the alteration occurred, higher alteration of monthly maximum water level at more than three stations can be observed in January, March, April, June, and October (Table II). Table II also indicates that higher alteration of monthly maximum water level was identified mainly in Modaomen channel, Hengmen channel, Qianhangxian channel, Ronggui channel, and Tanjiang channel (Table II, Figure 1). With respect to alterations of monthly minimum water level, the number of months showing high alteration was much less than those showing high alteration of monthly maximum water level. Higher alterations of annual maximum water level can be observed at two stations, Hengmen and Jiangmen; only one station showed higher alteration of annual minimum water level, Sanshui. Regarding the alteration of monthly mean maximum and minimum water level, more stations demonstrated high alteration of monthly mean minimum water level (eight stations) when compared with monthly mean maximum water level (five stations) (Table III). High alteration of monthly mean maximum water level occurred mainly in July, October and November. Huangpu station and Nansha station had more months with high degrees of alteration in monthly mean Hydrol. Process. 23, 1565– 1574 (2009) DOI: 10.1002/hyp 1570 Q. ZHANG ET AL. Table III. Statistic of 13 indicators of hydrologic alteration of monthly mean maximum and monthly mean minimum water levels for 17 gauges in the Pearl River Delta region. DS: Dasheng station; DLS: Denglongshan station; HM: Hengmen station; HJ: Huangjin station; HP: Huangpu station; JM: Jiangmen station; LYG: Laoyagang station; NH: Nanhua station; NS: Nansha station; RQ: Rongqi station; SD: Sanduo station; SSK: Sanshakou station; SS: Sanshui station; SZ: Shizui station; SSW: Sishengwei station; XL: Xiaolan station; ZY: Zhuyin station IHA DS Monthly mean Jan. 0Ð03 Feb. 0Ð05 Mar. 0Ð02 Apr. 0Ð12 May 0Ð05 Jun. 0Ð05 Jul. 0Ð12 Aug. 0Ð05 Sep. 0Ð03 Oct. 0Ð12 Nov. 0Ð19 Dec. 0Ð19 Monthly mean Jan. 0Ð04 Feb. 0Ð13 Mar. 0Ð04 Apr. 0Ð04 May 0Ð04 Jun. 0Ð03 Jul. 0Ð04 Aug. 0Ð11 Sep. 0Ð13 Oct. 0Ð22 Nov. 0Ð20 Dec. 0Ð12 DLS HM HJ HP maximum water level 0Ð01 0Ð13 0Ð10 0Ð30 0Ð09 0Ð13 0Ð10 0Ð19 0Ð08 0Ð02 0Ð10 0Ð09 0Ð06 0Ð01 0Ð07 0Ð24 0Ð15 0Ð13 0Ð05 0Ð37 0Ð01 0Ð17 0Ð03 0Ð71 0Ð01 0Ð08 0Ð03 0Ð37 0Ð08 0Ð03 0Ð05 0Ð24 0Ð08 0Ð08 0Ð10 0Ð30 0Ð01 0Ð03 0Ð03 0Ð37 0Ð03 0Ð03 0Ð10 0Ð37 0Ð01 0Ð07 0Ð20 0Ð55 minimum water level 0Ð06 0Ð12 0Ð17 0Ð12 0Ð30 0Ð03 0Ð01 0Ð18 0Ð25 0Ð30 0Ð17 0Ð19 0Ð15 0Ð12 0Ð04 0Ð30 0Ð30 0Ð05 0Ð04 0Ð24 0Ð30 0Ð12 0Ð17 0Ð12 0Ð25 0Ð12 0Ð10 0Ð03 0Ð30 0Ð05 0Ð10 0Ð12 0Ð30 0Ð12 0Ð13 0Ð18 0Ð25 0Ð05 0Ð13 0Ð12 0Ð25 0Ð18 0Ð01 0Ð12 0Ð87 0Ð08 0Ð04 0Ð12 JM LYG NH NS RQ SD SSK SS SZ SSW XL ZY 0Ð28 0Ð22 0Ð28 0Ð22 0Ð33 0Ð33 0Ð33 0Ð33 0Ð33 0Ð91 0Ð33 0Ð28 0Ð23 0Ð03 0Ð05 0Ð05 0Ð05 0Ð14 0Ð33 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð05 0Ð30 0Ð04 0Ð14 0Ð09 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð56 0Ð43 0Ð01 0Ð45 0Ð38 0Ð43 0Ð45 0Ð45 0Ð48 0Ð38 0Ð48 0Ð38 0Ð43 0Ð43 0Ð43 0Ð22 0Ð33 0Ð33 0Ð22 0Ð28 0Ð33 0Ð33 0Ð33 0Ð33 0Ð28 0Ð33 0Ð17 0Ð17 0Ð22 0Ð13 0Ð13 0Ð13 0Ð13 0Ð22 0Ð17 0Ð13 0Ð02 0Ð17 0Ð04 0Ð07 0Ð03 0Ð03 0Ð03 0Ð03 0Ð07 0Ð19 0Ð09 0Ð03 0Ð03 0Ð03 0Ð23 0Ð02 0Ð02 0Ð10 0Ð02 0Ð07 0Ð07 0Ð40 0Ð02 0Ð02 0Ð07 0Ð07 0Ð02 0Ð05 0Ð05 0Ð03 0Ð32 0Ð02 0Ð05 0Ð05 0Ð05 0Ð04 0Ð25 0Ð11 0Ð14 0Ð05 0Ð19 0Ð17 0Ð11 0Ð06 0Ð04 0Ð00 0Ð05 0Ð05 0Ð05 0Ð16 0Ð17 0Ð14 0Ð04 0Ð06 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð14 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð21 0Ð21 0Ð11 0Ð06 0Ð06 0Ð06 0Ð06 0Ð11 0Ð11 0Ð06 0Ð11 0Ð11 0Ð33 0Ð33 0Ð17 0Ð28 0Ð33 0Ð33 0Ð33 0Ð33 1Ð00 0Ð28 0Ð33 0Ð17 0Ð14 0Ð02 0Ð14 0Ð33 0Ð23 0Ð23 0Ð23 0Ð23 0Ð06 0Ð31 0Ð22 0Ð14 0Ð01 0Ð09 0Ð36 0Ð09 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð14 0Ð09 0Ð36 0Ð29 0Ð20 0Ð07 0Ð00 0Ð06 0Ð14 0Ð07 0Ð43 0Ð20 0Ð07 0Ð25 0Ð20 0Ð13 0Ð28 0Ð33 0Ð22 0Ð33 0Ð33 0Ð33 0Ð28 0Ð33 0Ð33 0Ð22 0Ð22 0Ð18 0Ð04 0Ð12 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð04 0Ð28 0Ð21 0Ð20 0Ð40 0Ð21 0Ð47 0Ð15 0Ð15 0Ð34 0Ð09 0Ð27 0Ð21 0Ð19 0Ð18 0Ð24 0Ð01 0Ð18 0Ð05 0Ð18 0Ð11 0Ð11 0Ð18 0Ð11 0Ð47 0Ð18 0Ð09 0Ð05 0Ð20 0Ð06 0Ð06 0Ð05 0Ð43 0Ð13 0Ð00 0Ð09 0Ð13 0Ð11 0Ð12 0Ð12 0Ð05 0Ð05 0Ð03 0Ð05 0Ð02 0Ð12 0Ð03 0Ð12 0Ð05 0Ð19 0Ð20 0Ð29 0Ð29 0Ð29 0Ð29 0Ð20 0Ð29 0Ð29 0Ð93 0Ð29 0Ð29 0Ð29 0Ð01 0Ð06 0Ð11 0Ð11 0Ð06 0Ð11 0Ð39 0Ð06 0Ð01 0Ð07 0Ð01 0Ð27 Moderate (0Ð34– 0Ð67) and high alterations (0Ð68–1) marked in bold. 0–0Ð33 denotes little or no alteration. maximum water level when compared with the other stations, and these two stations are located in Qianhuangxian channel and Jiaomen channel, respectively (Figure 1). In terms of specific stations, only one or two months were characterized by high alterations of monthly mean minimum water levels, and these stations are located in Modaomen channel, Xijiang channel, Ronggui channel, Jiaomen channel, Shawan channel, Tanjiang channel, Xiaolan channel (Figure 1). Spatial distribution of alteration degrees for monthly and annual maximum (minimum) water levels Using the mapping method of Richter et al. (1998), we determined the average hydrologic degrees of alteration for individual hydrologic items in the PRD (Figures 2–5), i.e. monthly maximum (minimum) water levels and annual maximum (minimum) water levels. Figure 2 illustrates the spatial distribution of mean degree of alteration in monthly maximum water levels for the PRD. It can be observed on Figure 2 that a majority of the river channels were characterized by low alteration of monthly maximum water levels. Moderate alterations were detected in the Hengmen channel, Xiaolan channel and river channels near the Xiaolan station and Rongqi station. The river channel between Tianhe station and Jiaomen station was characterized by high degrees of alteration in monthly maximum water level. With Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. respect to monthly minimum water level (Figure 3), only the north mainstream East River and Ronggui channel were characterized by moderate degrees of alteration in monthly minimum water level; low degrees of alteration were identified in the remaining channels of the PRD. The spatial distribution of the degree of alteration in annual maximum water level is illustrated in Figure 4. Almost all the river channels within the PRD except the river channel between Tianhe and Jiangmen stations were characterized by low degrees of alteration in annual maximum water level. A similar situation occurs found for the annual minimum water level (Figure 5); however the difference is that a moderate degree of alteration of annual minimum water level was observed in the river channel upstream to Sanshui station (Figure 5). Spatial distribution of alteration degrees for monthly mean maximum (minimum) water level Figures 6 and 7 illustrate the spatial patterns of the degrees of alteration in monthly mean maximum (minimum) water levels. Considerably different spatial patterns in the degrees of alteration in monthly mean maximum water level (Figure 6) and in monthly mean minimum water level (Figure 7) can be observed when compared with the patterns for monthly (annual) maximum (minimum) water levels in the PRD. It can be seen from Figure 6 that moderate degrees of alteration in monthly Hydrol. Process. 23, 1565– 1574 (2009) DOI: 10.1002/hyp HYDROLOGIC ALTERATION ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER DELTA 1571 Figure 4. Spatial distribution of mean degree of alteration in annual maximum water levels for the Pearl River Delta area, China: (1) light grey zones represent little or no alteration 0–33% (L, low); (2) medium grey zones represent moderate alteration 34–67% (M, medium); (3) dark grey zone represents a high degree of alteration 68–100% (H, high) Figure 5. Spatial distribution of mean degree of alteration in annual minimum water levels for the Pearl River Delta area, China. (1) light grey zones represent little or no alteration 0–33% (L, low); (2) medium grey zones represent moderate alteration 34–67% (M, medium); (3) dark grey zones represent a high degree of alteration 68–100% (H, high) mean maximum water level were observed in numerous river channels within the PRD. In particular, moderate degrees of alteration in monthly mean maximum water level were identified in the Shunde channel, Qianhangxian channel, Shawan channel, Hengmen channel, Xiaolan channel, Xijiang channel, Hongqili channel and channel between Tianhe station and Jiangmen station (Figures 1 and 6). Therefore, a majority of river channels in the hinterland of the PRD were characterized by moderate degrees of alteration. The remaining river channels were dominated mainly by low degrees of alteration in monthly mean maximum water level. Most river channels had low degrees of alteration in monthly mean minimum water level. Moderate degrees of alteration can be identified only in Hengmen channel, Xiaolan channel, channels near the Rongqi station and the channel between Tianhe and Jiangmen stations. Other channels within the PRD were dominated by low degrees of alteration in monthly mean minimum water levels. that changed hypsography due to extensive and intensive human activities, particularly the large-scale dredging and excavation of river sand, could be one of the major causes of the substantial hydrologic alteration (Luo et al., 2002; 2007). Figure 8 illustrates different degrees of intensity of in-channel sand dredging (Chen and Chen, 2002). Visual comparison of Figure 8 and Figures 2–7 shows the correlation between sand dredging and degree of alteration in water levels in the PRD. Generally, river channels characterized by moderate and high degrees of alteration were those subject to moderately and highly intensive dredging. River networks of the PRD north of 22° 300 N were mostly dominated by moderate degrees of monthly mean maximum water level. Figure 8 indicates that these river channels were also characterized by moderately and highly intensive levels of dredging. Degrees of alteration in other water level components, e.g. monthly maximum (minimum) water level and monthly mean minimum water level, also exhibited a close relation with intensity of sand dredging. River channels upstream of the river channels characterized by moderate degrees of alteration were generally subject to highly intensive dredging. Changes in the divided flow ratio within various water courses also drove the alterations in water level. Luo et al. (2007) indicated that the divided flow ratio increased by 8Ð8% at the Sanshui Station on the upper part of the North River network from the early 1980s to 1999. The large-scale hydrologic alteration of monthly mean maximum water levels in most river channels north of Possible causes The alterations in water levels within the PRD region were not driven by one individual factor. All the influencing factors impacting on the changes in water levels interact with each other. Therefore, the effects of the influencing factors on water levels are dynamic and their relative importance changes. Furthermore, for specific river channels, the major factors influencing water level variations may be different. Earlier research indicated Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Hydrol. Process. 23, 1565– 1574 (2009) DOI: 10.1002/hyp 1572 Q. ZHANG ET AL. Figure 6. Spatial distribution of mean degree of alteration in monthly mean maximum water levels for the Pearl River Delta area, China: (1) light grey zones represent little or no alteration 0–33% (L, low); (2) medium grey zones represent moderate alteration 34–67% (M, medium); (3) dark grey zones represent a high degree of alteration 68– 100% (H, high) 22° 300 N of the PRD region can be partly attributed to this changed divided flow ratio at the Sanshui station. Furthermore, sand dredging or excavation in one river channel affected the scouring and deposition process of its downstream river channels, which absolutely led to associated alterations in water level of its downstream river channels. Since the water levels of the PRD region were also influenced by tidal processes (Huang et al., 1999), it is particularly true for the water level changes in river channels closer to coastal regions. Stations with months characterized by higher water level alterations were observed largely along the Xijiang Channel, Modaomen channel, river channels in the hinterland of the PRD and also river channels near to the coastal regions. These observations support the point that altered hydrologic processes of the rivers upstream of the PRD and tidal variations were also partly responsible for water level alterations in the PRD. Therefore, water level alterations in the PRD were the consequence of natural processes such as hydrologic processes in the rivers upstream of the PRD and tidal variations along the coastal regions, and also human activities such as in-channel sand dredging. These factors played different roles in terms of specific river channels. CONCLUSIONS We quantitively analysed alterations in water levels within the PRD region using a modified RVA approach. Some interesting conclusions can be drawn as follows: Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Figure 7. Spatial distribution of mean alteration degree of monthly mean minimum water levels for the Pearl River Delta area, China: (1) light grey zones represent little or no alteration 0–33% (L, low); (2) medium grey zones represent moderate alteration 34–67% (M, medium); (3) dark grey zones represent a high degree of alteration 68–100% (H, high) 1) Regarding water level alterations in specific months, higher degrees of alteration in water level were detected in the monthly maximum water level. More stations showed high alterations in monthly mean minimum water level when compared with results for monthly mean maximum water level. In terms of mean degree of alteration in water levels, more river channels were characterized by high alterations in monthly mean maximum water levels. Therefore, it seems that the changes in high water levels may be more sensitive to external influences than changes in low water levels. Chen et al. (2008) found altered water levels across the Pearl River basin. In this study, we found that higher water level alterations can be observed in specific months in specific river channels, while low average degrees of alteration in water levels occur in most river channels within the Pearl River delta. 2) Greater alterations in water levels were observed in river channels within the PRD north of 22° 300 N, the Xijiang channel and also in the river channels near to coastal regions. With respect to mean degree of alteration, only sporadic river channels are characterized by high degrees of alteration in monthly maximum (minimum) water level, monthly mean minimum water level, and annual maximum (minimum) water level. However, a majority of river channels distributed in the regions of the PRD north of 22° 300 N were predominantly characterized by moderate degrees of alteration in monthly mean maximum water level. Therefore, Hydrol. Process. 23, 1565– 1574 (2009) DOI: 10.1002/hyp HYDROLOGIC ALTERATION ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER DELTA 1573 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The work described in this paper was fully supported by a grant from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. CUHK4627/05H), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.: 40701015) and Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities—the 111 Project of Hohai University. Cordial thanks should be extended to three anonymous reviewers and the editor-inchief, Professor Malcolm G Anderson for their invaluable comments which greatly improved the quality of this paper. REFERENCES Figure 8. River channels featured by different intensities of the in-channel sand dredging (after Chen and Chen, 2002). The solid lines marked with I and II show the demarcation of flood and flood– tidal areas (line A) and the demarcation of flood– tidal and tidal areas (line B) (after Huang et al., 1999) the alteration of monthly mean maximum water level played the major part in hydrologic alteration of water levels within the PRD. 3) Human activities, particularly in-channel sand dredging, played an important role in the spatial distribution of hydrologic alterations of water levels within the PRD. Study by Luo et al. (2007) indicated that from 1986 to 2003, about 0Ð87 billion m3 of sand were excavated, which caused average downcutting depths of 0Ð59–1Ð73 m, 0Ð34–4Ð43 m, and 1Ð77–6Ð48 m in the main channels of the West River, North River and East River, the major water systems in the PRD. 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