Co-benefits of options for
cleaner energy use in China
Wellcome Trust Meeting, London, May 27, 2008
Kristin Aunan, CICERO
• China – an important country for future global
warming
• Top-down and bottom up assessment of cobenefits of climate policies
1
Why co-benefits?
Climate-change and air-pollution links
• Source link: CO2 and the
main air pollutants to a large
extent have the same
sources
• Air pollutants, especially
tropospheric ozone and
particles, play an important
role in the climate system
• Chemistry: Some air
pollutants affect the lifetimes
of GHGs (e.g. increased CO
may increase the lifetime of
CH4)
2
Coal use in China is rocketing
• 4.5% growth in
Coal consumption (Mtoe)
1400
1200
1000
OECD
800
China
USA
600
India
400
200
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
global coal
consumption last
year
• 72% of the global
increase due to
China
Source: BP Amoco 2007
3
Probably large emissions in the pipe line
Carbon content of proven fossil fuel reserves in 2005
World top 4
600000
Coal
Oil
Gas
500000
400000
MtCO2 300000
200000
100000
0
USA
Russia
India
China
4
Urban air pollution - Chinese cities among the worst
Delhi
Mexico City
Rio de Janeiro
NO2
Los Angeles
SO2
New York
TSP
Tokyo
Shanghai
Lanzhou
Taiyuan
Guangzhou
Beijing
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
mg/m 3
5
Air pollution standards exceeded x times
• 340 mill. people in
cities where PM10>
100 mg/m3 (58% of
urban population
Class III and above)
• 70 mill. people in
cities where PM10>
150 mg/m3
00
• In addition:
Indoor air pollution
in rural areas is
severe
Source: World Bank/SEPA, 2007
6
Estimating short-term benefits from GHG
reducing projects and policies – three examples
1. Top-down approach: Assessment of a
CO2 tax in China using macroeconomic
model (CGE), accounting for health and
agricultural co-benefits
2a) Bottom-up study: Energy saving
and clean coal technologies in
Shanxi province. CO2 reductions
and health co-benefits
7
2b) Bottom-up study: ‘Cleaner Production’
projects in Taiyuan. CO2 reductions and
health co-benefits
3. Bottom-up studies:
Health benefits from reducing
exposure to indoor air pollution from
solid fuel burning in peoples homes
8
Implementing a CO2 tax in China:
Welfare analysis for 2010 including
health benefits
1000
Health benefit
500
100 mill. Yuan
1.
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Net benefit
-500
Welfare cost
-1000
-1500
CO2 reduction from 2010 baseline (%)
9
Welfare analysis including health benefits
and avoided crop loss due to reduced
surface ozone (NOx- ozone –crop link)
1000
Health benefit
100 mill. Yuan
500
’No regrets’ CO2
abatement: 15% - 20%
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Net benefit
-500
Welfare cost
-1000
-1500
CO2 reduction from 2010 baseline (%)
10
Impacts of two levels of a CO2 tax, 2010
(percentage change relative to baseline)
Reduction in CO2 emission
10%
20%
NOx Emission
National
Guangdong
Rest of China
Productivity Guangdong
Rice
Wheat
Other crops
Productivity Rest of China
Rice
Wheat
Corn
Cotton
Other crops
-6.06
-7.78
-5.85
-12.33
-15.73
-11.93
0.19
0.48
0.39
0.38
0.97
0.78
0.17
0.17
0.14
0.51
0.19
0.34
0.35
0.29
1.03
0.39
11
2.
Bottom-up studies in Taiyuan: Clean coal and
energy efficiency projects
• Detailed analysis of projects In Taiyuan: Energy efficiency
improvements at Taiyuan Iron and Steel Company; District
boiler house; Coal briquetting factory
• Shanxi province: Co-generation; Industrial boilers; Coal
washing; Briquetting
12
Health co-benefits of CO2 reductions often
higher than costs
762 USD/ton CO 2
300
Health benefit/CO2 (USD/ton CO2)
250
Abatement cost (USD/ton CO2)
USD/ton CO2
200
150
100
50
0
t
t
F
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Br
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-100
Im
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13
Avoided deaths/mtCO 2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Steel w ork -1 (T)
Steel w ork -2 (T)
968
Steel w ork -3 (T)
District boiler house (T)
Coal briquette factory (T)
Co-gen (S)
Modified boiler design (S)
Boiler replacement (S)
Improved boiler management (S)
Coal w ashing (S)
Briquetting (S)
Hungary (Aunan et al., 1998)
China (O'Connor et al., 2003)
China (Garbaccio et al, 2000)
India (Bussolo and O'Connor, 2001)
Chile (Dessus and O'Connor, 2003)
Chile (Cifuentes et al., 1999)
14
Co-benefits from targeting rural energy
urban
rural
700
46 %
600
500
Mill people
3.
400
27%
27%
gas
coal
300
200
100
0
biomass
• Nearly 3/4 of the Chinese population use biomass and
coal for cooking and heating
• WHO: 420 000 premature deaths annually due to indoor
air pollution from solid fuel use in China
15
Very large reductions in exposure to PM10 can
be obtained from targeted interventions in the
household sector
ΔPWE (μg/m3 PM10) for three abatement scenarios in mainland China: 1) Clean fuels in
urban residences, 2) partial fuel switch in rural residences, and 3) IAQ standard (150
μg/m3) met in all households
16
• Most likely very large
health benefits from
interventions
• Current methodologies
for health impact
assessment not
adequate
• Research needed!
17
Solid fuel burning affects global
and regional climate
Global integrated radiative forcing for a 1 y pulse of emissions
from Asian households in 2000 (100 y time horizon)
100
80
60
CH4
CH4 (NOX)
40
O3
mW/m2
20
OC
BC
0
Sulfate
Domestic biomass
-20
Domestic fossil fuels
CO2
-40
-60
From Aunan et al., in progress
18
’Cutting the curve’ – avoiding the coal rung
on the energy ladder good for the climate
But: As income increases in rural areas people tend to
switch to coal
Source: NRCSTD and Fafo A/S, 2006, "Life in Western China: Tabulation Report of Monitoring Social and
Economic Development in Western China", Beijing: China Statistics Press (Figure: Kristin Dalen (Fafo))
19
A positive trend in reverse: 11% increase in
residential coal consumption 2000-2005
Residential coal consumption (10,000 ton)
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2006
20
Current emission – integrated
radiative forcing (100 y time horizon)
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
Total integrated RF
Domestic fossil fuels
Domestic biomass
50.0
0.0
CO2
CH4
Sulfate
BC
OC
O3
CH4 (NOX)
Total integrated RF
-50.0
-100.0
21
30% of biomass is replaced by coal,
no sulfur removal in coal
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
Total integrated RF
Domestic fossil fuels
Domestic biomass
50.0
0.0
CO2
CH4
Sulfate
BC
OC
O3
CH4 (NOX)
Total integrated RF
-50.0
-100.0
22
30% of biomass is replaced by coal,
full sulfur removal in coal
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
Total integrated RF
Domestic fossil fuels
Domestic biomass
50.0
0.0
CO2
CH4
Sulfate
BC
OC
O3
CH4 (NOX)
Total integrated RF
-50.0
-100.0
23
BC may also enhance
melting of snow and
ice in the Arctic
Barrow,
Alaska,
71°N
Contribution to BC in snow, Barrow, April 15, 2005
24
Summary
• Clean coal technologies and
energy efficiency improvements
are cost-efficient options for cocontrol of air pollution and CO2
emissions
• Policies promoting clean
household fuels in China may
substantially reduce population
exposure to particulate air
pollution and may also be
beneficial for regional and global
climate
25
Research needs
• Clean biomass technologies
probably part of the solution.
What are the viable options and
what are their benefits for public
health, climate, and development?
• Impacts of air pollutants on crops
in Asia may be large – little
knowledge (ozone, regional haze)
• Excellent research communities
exist. Strong tradition for using
these as policy advisors among
Chinese policy makers
Associate Professor Shuxiao Wang
at Tsinghua University
26