Developing Air Quality
Management Strategies in
Liaoning Province, NE China
Mike Holland
Workshop on Mitigation of Air Pollution and Climate
Change in China
Oslo, 17-19 October 2004
http://www.emrc.co.uk/
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Acknowledgements
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Many Chinese experts
Many EU experts, led by AEA Technology
Liaoning EPB
Municipal EPBs and EMCs
Staff of enterprises that cooperated with
the programme
• Office staff of the air quality management
component
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Content
• UK experience
• Liaoning Integrated
Environmental Project
• Case studies
• Issues
–
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Scales of analysis
Health data
Cost data
Implementation
• Conclusions
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UK experience
• 800 year
problem
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UK experience
• 90% reduction in urban concentrations
UK Smoke & SO2: Annual Mean Concentrations at all
N ational Survey and Basic Urban N etwork sites
200
180
SO2 ug/m3
160
Concentration, ug m -3
– Cleaner fuels
– Relocated
industry
– Tall stacks
Smoke ug/m3
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
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84
19
86
19
88
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90
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62
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64
19
66
0
Year
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UK experience
• But some people
were not very
happy…
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UK experience
• And what about
traffic?
–
–
–
–
–
NOx
CO
VOCs
Diesel particles
…
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Lessons from UK experience
• Air pollution is not just an urban issue
• Coal burning was not the only problem
• Many solutions are not expensive - UK
development unaffected by pollution policy
• Multi-Agency response now needed
• Cost-effective solutions are available
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Liaoning Integrated Environmental
Programme (LIEP) 1999-2004
• Jointly funded by EU and
Chinese Government
• 8 components,
including…
– Raising environmental
awareness
– Air quality management
– Energy management
– Cleaner production
– Industrial restructuring
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Cities in the LIEP
• 5 cities
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–
–
–
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Anshan
Benxi
Fushun
Liaoyang
Shenyang
• Now being extended
to all 14 cities in the
Province
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Data collection
Framework
for
analysis
Quantify emissions
by source for 2000
and forecast
emissions in 2005,
2010
Collect necessary
meteorological
data
Identify options for
abatement
Develop health
impact assessment
framework
Quantify costs and
effectiveness of
each option
Develop framework
for costing health
impacts
Collect population
data
Identify the principal uncertainties in the analysis
Analysis for each scenario:
Run the ADMS atmospheric dispersion model
Run the Lambda model to quantify and cost health impacts
Quantify abatement costs for each scenario
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Results for each scenario:
Description of air quality on a 1x1 km resolution
Quantification of health impacts and associated damages
Quantification of the costs of abatement
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Consideration of the potential effects of uncertainties
Fushun –
Surface Dust
Storage Piles
300
Emission
inventory
for 2000
Construction Dust
Road Dust
Small Industry
Production
Production & Heat
Power
Process
Heat & Power
Kiln
Heat
Heat & Cooking
Road Traffic
250
Emission (ktonnes)
Single Storey
Dwellings
Small Boilers
Cooking
200
150
100
50
0
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TSP
SO2
NOx
CO
12
Emission inventory differentiated by
height of release (Fushun, 2000)
60
Emission (kt)
50
Stationary,
non-fugitive
sources only
TSP
SO2
NOx
CO
40
30
20
10
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
Stack Height (m)
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Anshan – contribution to TSP
emissions
Sector
TSP
(tonnes per annum)
AS1: Sector 44 - Power, steam, hot water
supply
36,762
AS2: Sector 34 - Metal Products
19,679
AS3: Sector 31 - Non-metallics
6,359
AS4: Sector 32 - Ferrous Metal
11,887
AS5: Others (57 plants)
8,886
AS6: Tea Boilers
64
AS7: Single Storey Dwellings
527
AS8: Fugitive Area Sources
50,493
Total Local Sources
134,656
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Problem
• Indoor air quality issues overlooked
• May be addressed through some urban
restructuring plans
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ADMS used for dispersion
modelling, 1 x 1 km grid in cities
42500
41500
40500
39500
38500
37500
36500
35500
34500
33500
0.2-0.25
0.15-0.2
0.1-0.15
0.05-0.1
0-0.05
32500
31500
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29500
91500
90500
89500
88500
87500
86500
85500
84500
83500
82500
81500
80500
79500
78500
77500
76500
75500
74500
73500
72500
71500
70500
69500
68500
67500
66500
65500
64500
63500
62500
61500
60500
59500
58500
30500
Fushun, PM10, 2000, green areas only
Meet Class 2 limit
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Contributions to TSP and PM10
Anshan case study
TSP
Regional
background
Remote background
41%
PM10
Emission Inventory (local sources)
29%
Emission inventory
sources
Emission inventory
Sources (0.71)
Regional
background
(0.47)
Remote background
38%
Emission Inventory (local
sources)
41%
Fugitive sources
30%
Fugitive emissions
Fugitive sources
21%
Fugitive emissions
(0.36)
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Another problem
• City by city analysis did not deal with
regional framework
– Pollutant imports
– Pollutant exports
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Possible solution: RiskPoll Model
( jaasspadaro@aol.com )
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Tested in many developing countries
Designed for regional assessment
Health and environmental assessment
Inhalation and ingestion
PM, SO2, NOx, CO, heavy metals…
Fully documented
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RiskPoll
• Minimum data requirement:
– Population density within 500 km and 1000
km of source
• Can add more data, e.g. on meteorology
and stack parameters to improve
calculations
• Results compare well with other more
complex models
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Quantifying health impacts
• European (CAFE Programme), USEPA
approach:
– Convene expert groups
• Chinese Projects
– Ad hoc, project by project, approach
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•
•
•
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LIEP – Review by Prof Xu Zhaoyi
Paper by Kristin Aunan and Xiao-Chuan Pan
Paper by Ramon Ortiz
…
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Quantifying health impacts:
What is the question?
• How big are the impacts of air pollution?
– Useful to see if air pollution is so serious that
it needs to be addressed
– But of possibly limited relevance to
quantification of possible actions to improve
air quality
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Quantifying health impacts:
What is the question?
• How big are the impacts related to a
reduction in pollution?
– Much more relevant to specific methods for
emission control
– The policy question when it has been decided
that air quality impacts should be addressed
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Quantifying health impacts:
Key issues for consistency
• Which pollutants?
– PM
• Which size fractions?
• Which chemical species?
– SO2, NO2, ozone, PAH, metals
• Which effects?
• Tendency to underestimate total burden on
health (?)
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LIEP Health Impact
Assessment Model
Particles
Cases/person/
yr/ug.m-3
Cost
(RMB)
Premature mortality (chronic)
0.000012
Acute respiratory hospital admissions
0.000001
3399
Acute asthma
0.000239
133
Acute upper respiratory inflammation
0.000231
130
Acute lower respiratory inflammation
0.000311
136
Bronchitis (chronic/long-term effects)
0.000286
1950
Emphysema (chronic/long-term effects)
0.000029
2400
Acute respiratory hospital admissions
0.000002
3399
Acute asthma
0.000141
133
SO2 (>50 ug.m-3)
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Health impacts, Anshan baseline
MONETARY DAMAGES (RMB MILLIONS)
Total
PM10
Respiratory hospital admissions
0.75
Asthma attacks
6.54
Acute upper respiratory inflammation
10.15
Acute lower respiratory inflammation
17.64
Bronchitis
130.90
Emphysema
17.37
Mortality – based on lost life years
189.00
SO2
Respiratory hospital admissions
1.04
Asthma attacks
2.33
TOTAL MONETARY COST
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375.71
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Attributing damage to source type
in Anshan
(RMB, MILLION)
Value of Damages
Year
2002
Starting Position
376
2005
(2002 emissions based on 2002
population)
Local Background
78
80
Remote Background
145
148
Local Sources
153
158
Ending Position
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386
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Estimating costs (European and
US perspective)
• Prone to overestimation
– Omission of cost-effective options
– Failure to account for innovation
– Often based on worst case assessment
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Illustrative cost curves
(note - this ignores cost-saving measures)
6000
Marginal costs (arbitrary units)
5000
4000
Curve with some
options omitted
3000
Full curve with no
options omitted
2000
1000
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Abatement (arbitrary units)
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Example of overestimation from Europe –
National Emission Ceiling/SO2/UK
140
Cost of reaching target (£M/year)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
560
570
580
590
600
610
620
630
Target SO2 emission (kt/year)
IIASA
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AEAT 1999
AEAT 2001
31
Car price data for the UK
2001 cars much better than 1989 cars, but a lot cheaper
Car price relatively insensitive to improvements in emissions control
Other factors dictate pricing strategies
1.10
Normalised price
1.05
1.00
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.80
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
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Example of underestimation of
costs
• European Commission’s CBA of directive
on NO2, PM10, SO2 and lead air quality
standards
– Final directive pushed compliance much more
to hot-spots than had been anticipated in the
CBA
– Rare example of overestimation
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CBA of district heating development
programme in Anshan
Cost and benefit category
Value (RMB, millions)
Damage costs before measure
13.1
Damage costs after measure
2.3
Change in damages - benefits
10.8
Investment cost
94.2
Annualised investment costs
12.4
Annual operating costs (savings)
(10.9)
Total annual costs
1.4
Net benefits
9.4
Benefit : cost ratio
7.5
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Benefit-cost ratios for projects at
Angang steel works
Project
Benefit-cost ratio
Coal preparation, AGC (09)
13.1
Angang Jindong Cement project (11)
4.3
No 7 blast furnace, Iron General Factory (04)
2.4
Boiler modification, No 1 Power Plant (07)
2.3
No 4 coking plant, AGC (10)
2.3
No 4 coking plant, AGC (12)
2.2
No 2 blast furnace, Iron General Factory (02)
2
Furnace modification, Chengnan Steel (08)
1.9
No 1 blast furnace, Iron General Factory (03)
1.8
Anshan pilot project (01)
0
No 3 power generator, No 2 Power Plant (06)
-0.1
Furnace modification, Anshan Steel (05)
-1.43
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Cumulative health benefits of
projects assessed for Anshan
180
140
Benefits
120
Benefit (RMB, millions)
Benefit (Million RMB)
160
100
80
60
Benefits –
Costs
40
20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Project number (ranked by decreasing B:C ratio)
Project No (by decreasing B-C ratio)
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Implementing
air quality action plans
• Plans may cover many sectors
– Energy industries
– Manufacturing industries
– Housing
– Transport
– Urban planning
–…
• Most efficient solutions may require many
actions by many different groups
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Action Plan Tracker
• Logs data on pollution control options:
– Costs
– Effectiveness
– Additional impacts (congestion, noise, local
economy)
– Implementation process (responsibility,
timescales, etc.)
– Progress
– Stakeholder comments
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Summary of recommended actions
to improve air quality in Liaoning
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District heating development and improvement
Improved coal quality
Better energy efficiency
Control of fugitive sources (pave roads, protect
storage piles, plant trees)
• Emission standards for new vehicles, better
fuels
• Active promotion of non-car options (bicycles,
public transport)
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Recommendations for improving
AQ Management Process
• Develop consensus view on health impact
assessment
• Include indoor and regional analysis as
well as local assessment
• Disseminate information more effectively
• Develop database of control techniques
• Use management systems to keep track of
progress and identify problems early
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