Present and future contributions of the household
sector to emissions of black carbon in China
David G. Streets
Argonne National Laboratory
Workshop on the Mitigation of Air Pollution and
Climate Change in China
Oslo, Norway
October 17-19, 2004
The source of carbonaceous aerosols is unburned
carbon emitted during inefficient combustion of fuel
Technically, we are most
concerned about:
black carbon (BC), fine aerosol
particles generally smaller than 1
micrometer in diameter and mostly
elemental carbon,
and
organic carbon (OC), similar
particles in which the carbon is
bonded to other atoms.
These particles are small enough
to travel in the air for a week or
more, forming regional air
pollution and ultimately being
deposited far from the source.
Kathmandu: Brick Kilns
Harmful Effects of BC
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Human health! Particles are small enough to be
inhaled into the deep lung where they slow
clearance mechanisms and provide absorption sites
for toxic species
Soiling of surfaces of buildings, monuments,
homes, etc.
Reduced visibility
Reduction in crop yields due to lowered insolation
Possible surface damage to vegetation
Modification of regional and global climates:
temperature and precipitation changes, effects on
cloud formation
A new bar chart of radiative forcing was constructed by Jim
Hansen to replace the IPCC formulation
Net forcing = 1.6 +/- 1.1 W/m2
Black
Carbon
(0.8)
(Hansen et al., Senate testimony, May 1, 2001;
Hansen and Sato, PNAS)
Model-simulated summer changes in temperature
Model suggests a
cooling of 0.5 to 1
deg K over China
due to reduction in
radiation reaching
the surface; in other
parts of the world,
the surface is
warmed due to BC
heating
From Menon et al., Science,
297, 2250-2253, 2002
Model-simulated summertime changes in precipitation
The model suggests
decreased
precipitation in
northern China
(drought) and
increased
precipitation in
southern China
(flooding) due to BC
aerosols
From Menon et al., Science, 297, 2250-2253, 2002
Jim Hansen’s “Alternative” Scenario
(released August 29, 2000)
“Our analysis of climate forcings suggests, as
a strategy to slow global warming, an alternative
scenario focused on reducing non-CO2 GHGs and
black carbon (soot) aerosols.… (R)eductions in
tropospheric ozone and black carbon would not
only improve local health and agricultural
productivity but also benefit global climate and air
quality.”
J. Hansen, M. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, and V. Oinas, Global warming in
the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario, Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences, 97, 9875-9880, 2000
Global distribution of BC emissions in 1996:
it’s mostly China, India, and biomass burning
China contributes about one-fourth of global BC
Inefficient combustion of coal in small stoves in
China produces large quantities of black carbon
Coal-burning cook stoves
in Xi’an, China
Results: Most of the BC in China comes from the
domestic/residential sector
Industry (Gg)
Domestic (Gg)
Transport (Gg)
Pow er Generation
(Gg)
Biomass Burning
(Gg)
Emissions in China are about 1 million tons per
year of BC and 3.4 million tons per year of OC
Distribution of black carbon emissions in East Asia by source type
and release height, reveals the regional nature of the
problem (2008 Beijing Olympics?)
Second-layer sources
(industry)
Ground-level sources
(residential, transport)
There are still fundamental problems with our
understanding of BC in the atmosphere
ENERGY
USE
BIOMASS
BURNING
BC EMISSION
FACTORS
BC
EMISSIONS
SOURCE
TESTING
BC ANALYSIS
METHODS
MONITORING
CAMPAIGNS
ATMOSPHERIC
MODELING
Often,
CALCULATED
BC
CONCENTRATIONS
(OBS )
(CALC) 
(2  4)
[Global, India, China,
…]
OBSERVED
BC
CONCENTRATIONS
Approach to forecasting BC and OC emissions
from the 1996 base-year reference point
From Bond et
al., JGR, 2004
“Give me a future, any future…”
(Range of IPCC forecasts of temperature change)
A2 and B2 done
subsequently
2030 and 2050
done
A1B and B1
used in ICAP
(Courtesy of Loretta Mickley)
Major factors influencing future BC emissions:
Level:
1
Change in energy use and fuel type, by sector
and world region
2
Improvements in particle control technology
3
Shifts in technology from low-level to higherlevel technology/fuel combination
4
Improvements in emission performance of a
given technology/fuel combination
Which fuels are used in which sectors?
Residential coal
use has very high
BC emissions
Level 1
forecasting
Residential electricity
use from nuclear power
has zero BC emissions
China photo
courtesy of
Bob Finkelman
Fuel use is partitioned among sectors and technology types
(this example is part of the residential sector)
Tech
Code
Fuel1
Residential
122 Agricultural Wastes
123 Animal Wastes
99 Biofuel
127 Biofuel
1 Biofuel
44 Biofuel
134 Biofuel
2 Biofuel
124 Biofuel
152 Biofuel
94 Briquettes
81 Brown Coal
84 Charcoal
52 Coking Coal
146 Diesel Fuel
147 Diesel Fuel
128 Hard Coal
98 Hard Coal
120 Hard Coal
121 Hard Coal
Combustor/Control Canada
General
General
Fireplace
Heating Stove
Improved Cookstove
Open Fire
Stoker/No control
Traditional Cookstove
Total Biomass
Charcoal Production
General
General
General
General
External Combustion
Generator
Heating Stove
Open Fire
Stoker/Cyclone
Stoker/No control
33378
0
0
1503
4510
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
18
0
0
6000
0
100
0
0
0
USA
218121
0
0
12515
37545
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
17722
0
2651
0
0
0
Central
South
Northern Western Eastern
America America
Africa
Africa
Africa
167410
199539
97470
450412
162794
0
0
465
5696
4296
0
1631
169
183988
15048
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2434
3821
355
8439
4398
14605
22926
2130
50632
26391
0
0
0
0
0
31644
49674
4615
109703
57180
0
0
0
0
0
5176
36411
1096
34969
40318
14
0
0
4913
83
0
0
0
636
0
1202
1860
274
3865
5889
0
0
0
0
0
1844
2683
0
0
0
1844
2683
37462
7425
858
0
0
0
0
0
0
644
0
3872
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
A stove is a stove is a…
(tech/fuel shifts for a particular energy service)
Coal-fired, high BC
Level 3
forecasting
Gas or electric, low BC
Photo of street
vendor’s stove in
Xi’an, courtesy of
Beverly Anderson
Net BC emission factors (g/kg) are developed from
PM ef’s, C fractions, and sub-micron fractions
Tech
Code
Fuel1
Power
68 Biofuel
117 Briquettes
41 Brown Coal
39 Brown Coal
40 Brown Coal
72 Brown Coal
119 Brown Coal
71 Brown Coal
51 Coking Coal
66 Coking Coal
57 Diesel Fuel
112 Hard Coal
110 Hard Coal
22 Hard Coal
20 Hard Coal
21 Hard Coal
69 Hard Coal
19 Hard Coal
70 Hard Coal
50 Heavy Fuel Oil
47 Natural Gas
65 Waste, Municipal
Combustor/Control Canada
General
Stoker/Cyclone
Pulverized Coal/Cycl
Pulverized Coal/ESP
Pulverized Coal/Scrub
Stoker/Cyclone
Stoker/ESP or Filter
Stoker/Scrubber
General
Stoker/Scrubber
General
Cyclone/Cyclone
Cyclone/Filter or ESP
Pulverized Coal/Cycl
Pulverized Coal/ESP
Pulverized Coal/Scrub
Stoker/Cyclone
Stoker/ESP or Filter
Stoker/Scrubber
General
General
General
0.03869
0.00156
0.00104
0.00021
0.00940
0.03740
0.00374
0.08415
0.00000
0.00000
0.00265
0.00059
0.00002
0.00018
0.00007
0.00288
0.03465
0.00554
0.11088
0.03960
0.00012
0.00176
USA
0.03869
0.00156
0.00104
0.00021
0.00940
0.03740
0.00374
0.08415
0.00000
0.00000
0.00265
0.00059
0.00002
0.00018
0.00007
0.00288
0.03465
0.00554
0.11088
0.03960
0.00012
0.00176
Central
America
0.03869
0.00156
0.00104
0.00021
0.00940
0.03740
0.00374
0.08415
0.00000
0.00000
0.00265
0.00059
0.00002
0.00018
0.00007
0.00288
0.03465
0.00554
0.11088
0.03960
0.00012
0.00176
South Northern Western
America
Africa
Africa
0.03869
0.00156
0.00104
0.00021
0.00940
0.03740
0.00374
0.08415
0.00000
0.00000
0.00265
0.00059
0.00002
0.00018
0.00007
0.00288
0.03465
0.00554
0.11088
0.03960
0.00012
0.00176
0.03869
0.00156
0.00104
0.00021
0.00940
0.03740
0.00374
0.08415
0.00000
0.00000
0.00265
0.00059
0.00002
0.00018
0.00007
0.00288
0.03465
0.00554
0.11088
0.03960
0.00012
0.00176
0.03869
0.00156
0.00104
0.00021
0.00940
0.03740
0.00374
0.08415
0.00000
0.00000
0.00265
0.00059
0.00002
0.00018
0.00007
0.00288
0.03465
0.00554
0.11088
0.03960
0.00012
0.00176
Eastern
Africa
0.03869
0.00156
0.00104
0.00021
0.00940
0.03740
0.00374
0.08415
0.00000
0.00000
0.00265
0.00059
0.00002
0.00018
0.00007
0.00288
0.03465
0.00554
0.11088
0.03960
0.00012
0.00176
Southern
Africa
0.03869
0.00156
0.00104
0.00021
0.00940
0.03740
0.00374
0.08415
0.00000
0.00000
0.00265
0.00059
0.00002
0.00018
0.00007
0.00288
0.03465
0.00554
0.11088
0.03960
0.00012
0.00176
Emission factors for a given tech/fuel combination are
determined using an S-shaped technology penetration curve
7.00
1996 current emission factor (Bond/Streets)
6.00
Emission rate (g/kg)
5.00
Shape factor depends on
lifetime, build rate, etc.
4.00
3.00
“Net”
performance
in 2030
2.00
“Ultimate”
performance
1.00
0.00
1
6
11
16
21
26
Time (years)
31
36
41
46
51
Recent fuel use and BC emission trends
in East Asia (≈ China)
Figure 1 Fuel Use Trends in East Asia
BC Emissions
3000000
Figure 2 BC Emission Trends in East Asia
Total
Residential
Industry
Power
Transport
Biomass Burning
2000000
1500000
2500
2000
BC Emissions (Gg)
Fuel Use (Gg)
2500000
1000000
500000
0
1980
1985
1990
Year
Fuel Use
1995
2000
1500
Total
Residential
Industry
Power
Transport
Biomass Burning
1000
500
0
1980
1985
1990
Year
1995
2000
Future trends in BC emissions from
the household sector
BC Emissions from the Household Sector
BC Emissions (Gg)
1800
1600
A1B Scenario
1400
A2 Scenario
1200
B1 Scenario
B2 Scenario
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1970
1990
2010
Year
2030
2050
Future trends in BC emissions from
residential coal use
BC Emissions from Coal Use
1200
A1B Scenario
BC Emissions (Gg)
1000
A2 Scenario
B1 Scenario
800
B2 Scenario
600
400
200
0
1970
1990
2010
Year
2030
2050
Future trends in BC emissions from fuelwood use
BC Emissions from Fuelwood Use
160
BC Emissions (Gg)
140
120
100
80
A1B Scenario
60
A2 Scenario
40
B1 Scenario
20
B2 Scenario
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Year
2030
2040
2050
2060
Future trends in BC emissions from stoves
BC Emissions from Fuelwood Stoves (A2 Scenario)
90
BC Emissions (Gg)
80
70
Heating Stove
60
Improved
Cookstove
Traditional
Cookstove
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970
1990
2010
Year
2030
2050
Future trends in BC emissions from residential
use of crop residues
BC Em issions from Crop Residues
350
BC Emissions (Gg)
300
250
200
150
A1B Scenario
100
A2 Scenario
50
B1 Scenario
B2 Scenario
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Year
2030
2040
2050
2060
The changing picture of residential
BC emissions in China
Shares of Residential BC Emissions in
2030 (A2 Scenario)
Shares of Residential BC
Emissions in 1980
Crop Residues
Crop Residues
Animal Waste
Animal Waste
Municipal Waste
Municipal Waste
Fuelwood
Fuelwood
Coal
Residential BC Emissions in 2000
Coal
Oil, LPG
Oil, LPG
Crop Residues
1980:
mainly
coal
Animal Waste
Municipal Waste
Fuelwood
Coal
Oil, LPG
2000: coal, wood,
crops mixture
2030A2:
mainly crop
residues
We desperately need more source testing in
China to improve emission factors
Representativeness of entire
population of sources
Typical operating practices (air flow)
Typical fuels and fuel characteristics
Relationship to similar sources in the
developed world
Daily and seasonal operating cycles
Embracing BC offers the possibility of a true global
compact to address climate change
 U.S. and Europe (and other developed countries) reduce CO2
 They are the cause of most of the accumulated CO2
 They can afford the more expensive measures of CO2
mitigation
 They will accrue ancillary energy security benefits
 They can contribute a long-term solution
 China and India (and other developing countries) reduce BC
 They are the cause of most of the emitted BC
 They can afford the less expensive measures of BC control
 They will accrue ancillary health benefits
 They can contribute a near-term solution
Conclusions

Black carbon in China today is a serious environmental problem,
leading to (largely unquantified) inhalation health effects, regional
ecological damage, and climate modification.

The major causes are the direct combustion of solid fuels in the
home, poor combustion efficiency and lack of PM controls in the
industrial sector, polluting vehicles, and open biomass burning.

In the future, we think that the gradual phase-out of inefficient
technologies will slowly reduce primary aerosol emissions; more
vehicles, however, will tend to increase emissions. In the
household sector, things should improve rapidly in urban areas,
but linger in rural areas.

BC control could be China’s contribution to a global warming
treaty.