WORKSHOP:
MITIGATION OF AIR POLLUTION
AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHINA
OSLO,
OCTOBER 17-19, 2004
THE NORWEGIAN ACADEMY
OF SCIENCE AND LETTERS,
Drammensveien 78, N-0271 Oslo, Norway
1
Mitigation of air pollution and climate change in China
October 17-19, 2004
Venue: Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, Oslo, Norway
Program
Sunday 17th:
12.00 – 14.00
Lunch in the Academy
14.00 – 14.15
Harald Dovland: Welcome
14.15 – 14.30
Hans Martin Seip: Introduction
Session 1:
Implications of household energy use in China
Chair:
Haakon Vennemo
14.30 – 15.00
Jonathan Sinton, Kirk Smith, and Rufus Edwards: Implications for
GHG Emissions of Evolving Patterns of Stove and Fuel Use in China's
Rural Households
15.00 – 15.30
David Streets: Present and Future Contributions of the Household
Sector to Emissions of Black Carbon in China
15.30 – 16.00
Coffee break
16.00 – 16.30
Eric D. Larson: Environmental and economic implications of phasing
out direct use of solid fuels for cooking
16.30 – 17.00
Keith H. Florig: Insights from an Integrated Systems Perspective of
Household Fuels and Health in China
17.00 – 17.30
Kristin Aunan: The climate impact of the household sector in China –
backyard solutions to global problems?
17.30 – 18.30
Discussion
2
Monday 18th:
Session 2:
Economic growth and the environment
Chair:
Keith Florig (?)
09.00 – 09.30
Mun Ho: Growth policies and environmental policies in China
09.30 – 10.00
Li Shantong: The Challenges for China's Economic Development in
Future
10.00 – 10.15
Coffee break
10.15 – 10.45
Haakon Vennemo: Environmental implications of China’s WTOaccession
10.45 – 11.30
Discussion
Session 3:
Domestic burning, ambient and indoor air pollution
and health impacts
Chair:
Kristin Aunan
11.30 – 12.00
Ramon Ortiz: A framework to consider health effects of indoor air
pollution in the China Environmental Cost Model
12.00 – 13.30
Lunch
13.30 – 14.00
Pan Xiao-Chuan: Studies on health effects of indoor air pollution in
China
14.00 – 14.30
Jinghua Fang: Household energy use and indoor air pollution
measure-ments and analyses in Taiyuan, China
14.30 – 15.00
Coffee break
15.00 – 15.30
Liu Li and Steinar Larssen: Area sources and their importance for
population exposure. Dispersal modeling in Taiyuan, China
15.30 – 16.30
Discussion
19.00 -
Workshop dinner
3
Tuesday 19th:
Session 4:
Modeling and data issues related to integrated
assessment of economy and environment
Chair: Mun Ho
09.00 – 09.30
He Jianwu: A 3-region CGE-model for China with environmental
features.
09.30 – 10.00
Solveig Glomsrød: How efficient is the Clean Developing Mechanism
in reducing carbon emissions? The case of coal cleaning in China.
10.00 – 10.30
Taran Fæhn: Experiences with analysing trade-environment nexus
Norwegian CGE models
10.30 – 11.00
Discussion
Session 5:
Policy implications
Chair:
Jonathan Sinton
11.00 – 11.30:
Li Liping: Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction from Shijiazhuang
Iron&Steel Co.,Ltd.
11.30 – 13.00
Lunch
13.00 – 13.30
Hu Tao: Impacts of co-benefit on air pollution control policy of China
13.30 – 14.00
Mike Holland: Developing Air Quality Management Strategies in
Liaoning
14.00 – 14.30
Gørild Heggelund: China’s development challenges and climate
policy: CDM projects, energy and health.
14.30 – 15.00
Discussion
15.00 – 15.15
Coffee break
Session 6: Summary and conclusions
Chair:
Hans Martin Seip
15.15 – 15.45
Hun Ho and Pernille Holtedahl: Summary of workshop discussions
15.45 – 16.30
Hans Martin Seip: Follow up and prospects for further cooperation
(discussion)
4
Participants
CHINA
Fang, Jinghua, fjh@tyut.edu.cn
A: 16; D: 21
He, Jianwu, hjwmcn@yahoo.com.cn
A: 16; D:19
Hu, Tao, hutao@public.bta.net.cn
A. 16; D: 21
Taiyuan University of Technology,
Taiyuan, Shanxi
Development Research Center of the
State Council of China, Beijing
Policy Research Center for Environment
and Economy, State Environmental
Protection Administration, Beijing
Development Research Center of the
State Council of China, Beijing
Dept. of Occupational and Environmental
Health, Peking University School of
Public Health, Beijing
Policy Research Center for Environment
and Economy, State Environmental
Protection Administration, Beijing
Li, Shantong, shantong@drc.gov.cn
A: 16; D: 19??
Pan, Xiao-Chuan, xcpan@bjmu.edu.cn
Presumably 16 – 20, but not confirmed
Li, Liping, zycenter@163bj.com
A:16; D:20
USA
Florig, H. Keith, florig@cmu.edu
A: 16; D: 20; double room
Ho, Mun S., mun_ho@Harvard.Edu
A: 17; D: 20
Larson, Eric D., elarson@princeton.edu
A: 17; D: 19
Sinton, Jonathan E., JESinton@lbl.gov
A. 16, D:19, Double room
Streets, David, dstreets@anl.gov
A: 16; D: 20
NORWAY
Aunan, Kristin kristin.aunan@cicero.uio.no
Dovland, Harald Harald.Dovland@md.dep.no
Fæhn, Taran, tfn@ssb.no
Glomsrød, Solveig, sgl@ssb.no
Heggelund, Gørild,
goerild.heggelund@fni.no
Holtedahl, Pernille
pernille.holtedahl@econ.no
Langmoen, Norunn
Norunn.langmoen@econ.no
Larssen, Steinar
steinar.larssen@nilu.no
Larssen, Thorjørn, thorjorn.larssen@niva.no
Li, Yanhong yanhol@kjemi.uio.no
Lindhjem, Henrik, henrik.lindhjem@econ.no
Liu, Li, zll@nilu.no
5
Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh
Resources for the Future, Washington DC
Princeton Environmental Institute,
Princeton University, Princeton,
China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley
National Laboratory, Berkeley
Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne
CICERO
Ministry of Environment
Statistics Norway
Statistics Norway
Fridtjof Nansen Insitute
ECON
ECON
Norwegian Institute for Air Research
Norwegian Institute for Water Research
Liaoning Environmental Monitoring
Center/Dept. Of Chemistry, University of
Oslo
ECON
Norwegian Institute for Air Research/
Geophysical Institute, University of Oslo
Mestl, Heidi, heidi.mestl@iu.hio.no
Papineau, Maya, maya.papineau@cicero.uio.no
Seip, Hans Martin, h.m.seip@kjemi.uio.no
Skjelvik, John Magne,jms@econ.no
Vennemo, Haakon, haakon.vennemo@econ.no
Zhao, Yu, zhaoy@kjemi.uio.no
Faculty of Engineering, Oslo University
College
CICERO
Dept. of Chemistry, University of Oslo
ECON
ECON
Department of Environmental Science
and Engineering; Tsinghua University,
Beijing (p.t. University of
Oslo/Norwegian Institute for Water
Research)
OTHERS
Cifuentes, Luis, lac@ing.puc.cl
A:16; D:18
Holland, Mike, Mike.Holland@emrc.co.uk
A: 16; D:19
Ortiz, Ramon, ecprao@bath.ac.uk
A: 16; D: 20
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
Ecometrics Research and Consulting
(EMR), Reading, U.K.
Department of Economics and
International Development, University of
Bath/ Environment Sector Unit of the East
Asia and Pacfic Region of the World
Bank.
6
ABSTRACTS:
1. Li Hongge and Fang Jinghua: Household energy and indoor particulate pollution:
investigation and measurement in villages-in-town of Taiyuan, China ...........................................8
2. Pan Xiao-chuan, Wang Jing, Qi Qiping and Xu Dongqun: Study on Health Effects of
Indoor Air Pollution in China.........................................................................................................15
3. Haakon Vennemo, He Jianwu, Li Shantong, Hu Tao, Kristin Aunan and Hans Martin
Seip: A framework to consider health effects of indoor air pollution in the China
Environmental Cost Model.............................................................................................................16
4. Ramon Arigoni Ortiz and Bjorn Larsen: A framework to consider health effects of
indoor air pollution in the China Environmental Cost Model ........................................................23
5. David G. Streets: Present and Future Contributions of the Household Sector to
Emissions of Black Carbon in China..............................................................................................30
6. Eric D. Larson: Environmental and Economic Implications of Phasing Out
Direct Use of Solid Fuels for Cooking ..........................................................................................32
7. Mun S. Ho & Dale W. Jorgenson: Growth Policies and Environmental Policies
in China ..........................................................................................................................................36
8. Solveig Glomsrød: How efficient is the Clean Development Mechanism in reducing carbon
emissions? The case of coal cleaning in China ..............................................................................38
9. Taran Fæhn: Experiences with analysing the trade-environment nexus in Norwegian CGE
models ............................................................................................................................................41
10. Gørild Heggelund: China’s development challenges and climate policy:
CDM projects, energy and health ...................................................................................................45
11. Mike Holland: Developing Air Quality Management Strategies in Liaoning
Province in North-East China.........................................................................................................48
12. Hu Tao and Haakon Vennemo: Co-control: actions after co-benefits ..................................50
13. Tian Chunxiu, Li Liping, Hu Tao: Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction
from Shijiazhuang Iron&Steel Co.,Ltd. ........................................................................................52
14. Liu, Li1, Larssen, Steinar, Cao, Jie and Zhang, Daisheng: Area sources and their
importance for population exposure (Dispersal modelling in Taiyuan, China) ............................52
15. Kristin Aunan: The climate impact of the household sector in China – backyard
solutions to global problems? ........................................................................................................55
16. He Jianwu: A 3-regional CGE-model for China with environmental features .......................59
17. H. Keith Florig: Insights from an integrated systems perspective of household
fuels and health in China ................................................................................................................60
7
1. Household energy and indoor particulate pollution:
investigation and measurement in villages-in-town of
Taiyuan, China
Li Hongge and Fang Jinghua
Taiyuan University of Technology
In the past decade, a great effort has been put to fight the air pollution and got significant
progresses in Taiyuan. For example, the annual average of PM10 from 0.349 mg/m3
(converted from TSP ) in 1992 declined to 0.172 mg/m3 in 2003 and SO2 from 0.331
mg/m3 in 1992 to 0.099 mg/m3 in 20031, 2. In terms of heavy air pollution, Taiyuan was
ranked No.1 in 47 main cities monitored in 1998-2000 but No.21 in 105 monitored cities
in 2003. Emissions from large industrial pollution sources are generally under the control.
However, the air quality is now still poor as per the National Standard II class—0.10
mg/m3 for PM10 and 0.06 mg/m3 for SO2. One of the main reasons for the poor air quality
in Taiyuan is the uncontrolled emission from tens thousands of widely scattered lowheight chimneys in so-called “villages-in-town”.
1.Investigation of Villages-in-town
Villages-in-town are the result of a long-term dual-structure policy (separation between
urban and rural residents) and rapid urbanization. They are considered a big problem in
the sense of social and environmental respects. Once thinking about villages-in-town,
they are correlated with dirty and mess surroundings, illegal construction, poor
management and even criminal, though their location is advantageous and villager’s real
income is much higher than common citizens. Some people even call the villages “tumor
of the city”. Now the municipal government has started to deal with this issue in order to
improve the image of the city as whole. The issue of villages-in-town is a quite
complicated problem of social, economic and political respects. Our research focuses
only on household energy use and related indoor particulate pollution in the villages to
provide some basic information as a reference for policy making.
The Great Taiyuan has area of 6988 km2 and population of 3.3 million, consisting of 6
districts, 3 counties and 1 sub-city. Taiyuan city has 6 districts of 1460 km2 and 2.46
million residents, plus about 0.239 million temporally moving-in population who are
mostly farmer-workers. In the central area of 197 km2, there are 75 so called “Villagesin-town”. They takes 88 km2 with population of 0.1173 million, plus temporally movingin people of about 0.20 million. Among the 75 villages there are 31 villages-in-town,
which are totally surrounded by the urban construction, having area of 22.2 km2 and
population of 52,773 plus about 0.15 million move-in people. The 31 villages are
considered the first objectives for retrofitting in the near term.
Most households in the villages now use LPG for their cooking but all use coal for
heating their rooms including those for rent in the winter. About 2/3 households have
retrofitted their own yard into 3~6 story building with 20-60 rooms for rent. Every
household has at least an indigenous small boiler located at an individual room or
basement. The small indigenous boilers with capacity of 20 to 150 kwth, due to burning
cheap raw coal and without any cleaning devices, consume more coal and emit heavy
8
smog through low-height chimney. This pollution is especially severe in the morning and
evening of the winter. The average concentration of pollutants in heating season is much
higher than the annual average.
2. Instruments
PM10, PPAHs (Particle-bound Poly-Aromatic Hydrocarbons) and AS (Active Surface of
particles) were chosen as indicators of the indoor particulate pollution in this study. Three
portable monitors—LS, PC, and DC have been used for the measurements of particulate
pollutants. LS—Laser Scatting for measurement of PM10, mg/m3. PC—Photoelectric
Charging for PPAHs, ng/m3, will provide mass concentration of PPAHs of 4 and more
benzene rings. Almost all of PAHs of 4 and more rings are adsorbed on the active surface
of particles less than 1 micrometer at the ambient temperature. Some of these consisting
of 4 and more benzene rings are known to be highly carcinogenic, for instance, B(a)P, a
typical member of PAH-family with 5 benzene rings, is well known since long to be a
carcinogen responsible for the lung cancer. DC—Diffusion Charging for AS, mm2/m3.
Amount of AS can reflect the share of fine particles, i.e. the larger of the AS, the more of
the fine particle fraction. Generally, as the particle becomes smaller their surface
becomes more important and determines the main particle characteristics. The type of LS
monitor is DustTrak-8520 produced by TSI. The PC and DC monitors are new products
of EcoChem (PAS-2000CE), developed by the Lab of Solid Physics of ETHz, headed by
Prof. Hans Siegmann. The three monitors can provide real-time data of aerosol pollutants
anywhere and anytime on the adjustable time interval, such as 5, 10, 30 and 60 second.
The data are recorded and stored in a memory for later retrieval and treatment in a
computer. The principles and structures of the three instruments can be found in
reference3, 4.
3. Measurements
Measurements are carried out in a village-in-town, called ”Xiao Wang Chun”, who has
land of 91.33 ha and population of 3002 plus about 20000 moving-in people. The total
revenue of the village was RMB180 million in 2002, 87% of which comes from services,
i.e. rent of land and rooms, running business, transportation and others. About 80%
households use LPG, 10% use raw coal and 10% use briquette for cooking. The number
of LPG users will decrease because some households use coal-firing stoves both for
heating and for cooking in winter. For heating in the winter all households use raw coal.
In this village there are 935 households having 943 indigenous household boilers with
average 8-meter high chimney, consuming around 10000 tons of coal annually for winter
heating.
According to the fuel type used for cooking, three households burning raw coal,
honeycomb briquette and LPG, respectively, in the village were chosen. The field
measurement was carried out in the middle of both January and September representing
heating and non-heating season, respectively. Each test lasted on the base of continuing 3
days. The tests were carried out in their kitchens and the monitors were put on the same
level of ranges within 1-meter distance. Data recording of 60-second interval was set for
this study.
9
4. Results and analyses
The data measured are summarized in table 1 and 2. Figures 2 and 3 demonstrate the
real-time data curves recorded as samples. Followings are some conclusions and
discussions
1 The indoor particulate pollution is very serious in all three households during our
tests. In comparison with the annual average data of PM10 in 2003 in Taiyuan
(0.215mg/m3 in heating season and 0.141 mg/m3 in non-heating season, according to
the report), the data measured for burning raw coal, briquette and LPG are 3.1 to 6.8
times higher than city’s data both in heating season and in non-heating season.
Furthermore, the data recorded in this study are 4.8 to 14.7 times higher than the
national standard 2nd class.
2 Burning raw coal emits more pollutants than burning briquette. Normally, burning
LPG should emit the least pollutants among the three types of fuel, however, data
monitored in non-heating season show the emission of burning briquette is less than
burning LPG. This is because weather condition has a significant influence on the
data, as the two nights were rainy and windy during the three testing days.
3 It is clear that in the heating season the PM10 data is 1.65 times higher than those of
non-heating season for the household burning raw coal, and 2.43 for burning
briquette. However, for burning LPG the PM10 level looks no big change between the
two seasons.
4 In the non-heating season, emissions from burning three fuels are not big different
and not follow the regular pattern as expected. The reason is not very clear, probably
the surroundings and weather play more important role.
5 Due to the limitation of time and number of household monitored, the results
presented here are very preliminary and the arrangement of tests should be further
modified.
6 The severely high concentration of particulate pollutants in the villages results not
only from fuel used but also from the dirty surroundings, such as dusty alley, small
food stands, mess piled coal and construction material and continuously illegal
construction, and so on.
Planned measurements in this winter:
1. Continue the ongoing investigation on the villages and measurement on household
energy and particulate pollutants in the three households.
2. Compare the data of particulate pollutants between villages-in-town and the whole
city through field monitoring in a village and a nearby common place at the same
time. Purpose of comparison is to find the real effect of small boilers in the villages
on the local air quality.
10
Fig.1 Villages-in-town of Taiyuan
11
Table 1. Concentration of PPAHs and PM10 in heating season
PPAHs (ng/m3)
PM10 mg/m3
Fuel
Averag
Maximu
Minimu
Averag
e
m
m
e
Raw coal
1.477
7.736
0.311
Briquette
1.167
2.349
0.789
LPG
0.674
1.589
0.096
353.08
1
312.76
2
157.84
5
Maximum
Minimu
m
1291
20
938
30
429
9
Table 2. Concentration of PPAHs and PM10 in non-heating season
Fuel
PM10 mg/m3
PPAHs (ng/m3)
DC (mm2/m3)
Ave. Max. Min.
Ave.
Max.
Min.
Ave.
Max.
Min.
0.895
5.796
0.475
165.69
1615
18
284.889
3366
120
Briquette
0.481
5.48
0.09
132.552
5283
21
193.071
3787
12
LPG
0.733
3.807
0.1
84.91
385
11
290.556
1692.0
102
Raw
coal
12
1600
6
1400
5
4
800
3
600
2
3
1000
/ )
1200
10(
3
( / ), (
2
3
/ )
Fi g. 2 Data of PM10¡ ¢
PPAHs and AS bur ni ng r aw coal i n nonheat i ng season
7
1800
400
1
200
0
0
11: 00 13: 50 16: 40 19: 30 22: 20 1: 10 4: 00 6: 50 9: 40
time
10
Fi g 3 PM10¡ ¢
PPAHs and DC dat a bur ni ng br i quet t e
i n non- heat i ng season
6
1800
4
1200
1000
3
800
2
600
400
1
200
0
19: 00
21: 50
0: 40
3: 30
time
6: 20
13
9: 10
12: 00
14: 50
10
17: 40
0
3
1400
/ )
5
1600
10(
3
( / ), (
2
3
/ )
2000
References
1. Environmental Monitoring Station of Taiyuan, Environmental Quality Report in 1992
2. Environmental Monitoring Station of Taiyuan, Environmental Quality Report in 2003
3. H.Burtscher and H.C. Siegmann. Combustion Science and Technology, 101,327
(1994)
4. Qian Zhiqiang, et al., Atmospheric Environment, 34, 443 (2000)
14
2. Study on Health Effects of Indoor Air Pollution in
China
Pan Xiao-chuan1 Wang Jing2 Qi Qiping3 Xu Dongqun3
1. Dept. of Occupational and Environmental Health, Peking University School of Public
Health, Beijing 100083, P.R. China. 2. Beijing Municipal Research Institute of
Environmental Protection. 3. Institute for Environment Hygiene and Health Related
Product Safety, China CDC.
The indoor air quality is concerned more and more by the government and the public in
China nowadays and the health effects of indoor air pollution are becoming a serious
challenge in both urban and rural areas of China. In order to further study the health
effects of indoor air pollution and exposure level of the population to some indoor air
pollutants, this paper reported and reviewed that a series of epidemiologic study
conducted and environmental monitoring to the indoor air quality measured recently in
China, funded by China government and World Bank respectively.
These studies includes: 1. the indoor air average level of ammonia, formaldehyde, total
volatile organic compounds (TVOCs), house dust mites, moulds and other allergens in
400-1400 households in 6 cities of China, which measured by the standard procedure and
methods in 2001-2002. The results showed that level of most indoor air pollutants in the
households of the cities were over that of the national health standards and it was higher
in summer than that in winter. 2. Case-control studies on the risk factors of asthma attack
in adult (124 cases & 448 controls) and allergic rhinitis (45 cases & controls), which
related to indoor air biological pollutants with the health questionnaires and indoor air
monitoring. The results showed that indoor decoration level, level of indoor air
formaldehyde and occupational exposure to dust are associated significantly with asthma
attack. 3. Incidence of sick building syndrome (SBS) of the population in 7 office
buildings (over 300 subjects) in Beijing and Shenzhen by approaches of both health
questionnaire and indoor air quality monitoring at summer in a cross-sectional study. The
result showed that the Incidences of SBS symptoms were 3-60% in exposure population.
4. A pilot study on associations between indoor air quality and adult leukemia by casecontrol study. 5. An evaluation of the indoor air pollution and respiratory health of
farmers in Anhui and Sichuan provinces of China. The results showed that average level
of PM10 and PM2.5 in the kitchen of the farmers’ households were
520⎧g/m3(373samples) and 193⎧g/m3(155 samples). These studies concluded that there
is extensive indoor air pollution now in both urban and rural areas of China, while the
indoor decoration and the fuels for cooking and heating are important sources and are
associated with the adverse health effects of the exposure population.
15
3. Environmental impacts of China's WTO-accession
Haakon Vennemo*
He Jianwu
Li Shantong
Hu Tao
Kristin Aunan
Hans Martin Seip
Abstract
China’s accession to the WTO in 2001 completed the country’s entry into the global
economy. We investigate environmental implications of WTO-accession. There are
several hypotheses in this area: The composition hypothesis claims that new industries
emerge that might be cleaner or dirtier, and the green dumping hypothesis claims that
new industries will be dirtier. The technique hypothesis claims that production methods
become cleaner. The scale hypothesis claims that income is scaled up and pollutes more.
We analyse the relative strength of these hypotheses by means of an environmental CGEmodel, and find support for a composition effect in favour of clean industries. Thanks to
the composition effect, emissions to air of greenhouse gases fall. Emissions of particles
and SO2 also fall, but emissions of NOx and VOC rise. Since particle and SO2-emissions
fall we estimate that public health improves.
Key Words
WTO, trade, environment, China, CGE-model, ancillary benefits
JEL Classification
D58, D62, F18, Q56
Introduction
The economic and social implications of China’s accession to WTO in 2001 are now
reasonably well understood. For example, a recent book (Bhattasali et al., 2004)
assembles a comprehensive discussion of economy wide quantitative impacts as well as
industry studies. Other studies have also investigated economy-wide quantitative impacts
(Ianchovichina and Martin, 2001; Gilbert and Wahl, 2002). Yet others have looked at
implications for third countries and for the WTO system itself (e.g., McKibbin and Tang,
2000, Martin and Ianchovichina, 2001; Wang, 2003). In addition, both the China
Quarterly (see Fewsmith, 2001) and China Economic Review (see Chun, Fleisher and
16
Parker, 2001) have published special issues on WTO and China, and it has been the
subject of earlier books, including Panitchpakdi and Clifford (2002) and Lardy (2002).
To our knowledge, however, the rich literature on China and WTO has not analysed
environmental implications of China’s WTO accession. Yet the environmental
implications could be significant. There is a worry that WTO-accession will increase
production of dirty industrial products. The argument is that environmental regulation in
rich countries tends to drive dirty industrial production to developed countries with laxer
regulation. With China in the WTO the process will accelerate. Another worry is that
WTO will push economic growth, which in the next instance motivates consumption of
private vehicles etc. that increases pollution and contributes to natural resource scarcity.
It is a fact that following WTO accession (but also other events like SARS) car
ownership in China has increased at a 40-50% annual rate.1 On the other hand, optimists
remark that WTO accession may improve the standard of technology invested in China,
and efficient technology tends to pollute less. Clean technology is further promoted by
the fact that large export markets like EU and the U.S. usually do not accept Chinese
products unless they are ISO-certified or otherwise show that they meet environmental
standards.
The environmental implications of WTO-accession are of concern to policy makers both
inside and outside China. The concern is fuelled by the fact that China is the largest
source of SO2-emissions in the world, and the second largest source of CO2-emissions.
Unfortunately, emission trends are pointing upwards. To support Chinese decision
making related to WTO and environment the so-called China Council for International
Cooperation on Economy and Environment, an advisory body with support from several
developed countries, has set up a task force to analyse environmental implications of
WTO-membership. Environmental implications of WTO accession are also the topic of
several current bilateral cooperation projects between China and other countries.
Academic research on which to base policy advice and recommendations is lacking,
however.
1
The growth rate 2001-2002 was 47% according to China Statistical Yearbook.
17
The objective of our paper is to investigate environmental implications of WTOaccession. We wish to assess the relative strength of the forces that pull in different
directions and together shape the response to WTO. To do that we need a quantitative
framework and we employ an environmental computable general equilibrium (CGE)
model. An advantage of such a model is that it gives an interpretation of impacts of
economic policy or other exogenous drivers that complies with the overall constraints on
the economy. Another advantage is that it allows a comprehensive assessment of an
across the board policy change like WTO-accession. The CGE-model is familiar tool for
analysing economic consequences of WTO-accession, and is used for that purpose by
Zhai and Li (2000), Gilbert and Wahl (2002) and Hertel, Zhai and Fan (2004) among
others. Our paper differs from these in its environmental focus.
Environmental impacts
Simulating the environmental CGE-model through five scenarios, we obtain impacts on
emissions as indicated in table 1.
Table 1 Emission level under China’s WTO Accession Scenario
WTO
Tariff and
accession
quota
package (S5) reduction on
industrial
products (S1)
Agricultural MFA
trade
elimination
liberalization (S3)
(S2)
Automobile
Productivity
boost
(S4)
PM10
-1.24
-0.48
0.92
-1.50
0.18
SO2
-1.05
-0.81
1.00
-1.09
0.16
NOx
1.44
0.20
0.75
0.06
0.20
VOCs
0.16
0.83
0.76
-1.45
0.21
CO2
-0.74
-0.19
0.79
-1.26
0.17
CH4
-3.24
-0.60
-0.34
-1.88
0.09
N2O
-0.61
0.30
-1.70
0.71
0.06
Note: percentage change relative to the baseline scenario, 2010. Scenario 1-4 do not sum to scenario 5 because scenario
1-4 show the effect of one policy aspect at a time and do not accumulate them.
Several striking conclusions emerge from table 4. For instance, it appears that agricultural
trade liberalisation, by itself, is bad for the environment (except CH4 and N2O). Boosting
the productivity of the automobile industry also is bad. By contrast, eliminating the MFA
agreement seems to be good for China’s environment and the main driver behind the
18
positive tendency of the full package. Finally the reduction and removal of tariffs and
quotas on industrial imports has a mixed effect. All scenarios predict moderate effects of
WTO-accession, a prediction consistent with the message that usually comes from CGEmodels.
The net impact of all changes is summarised in scenario 5, the full accession package.
The full accession package reduces emissions of all greenhouse gases. It also reduces
damaging particle (PM10) and SO2 emissions. Emissions of NOx and VOC increase,
however. Increases in NOx- and VOC-emissions may contribute to increased ozoneformation, which therefore could be a problem accentuated by accession. However, the
overall message from the simulations is, in our view, fairly positive.
In the following we try to decipher the reasons for the emission changes and relate them
to common hypotheses about trade and environment.
19
4. A framework to consider health effects of indoor air
pollution in the China Environmental Cost Model
Extended abstract
October 2004
Ramon Arigoni Ortiz
Bjorn Larsen
Consultants
The World Bank
Environment and Social Development Unit
East Asia & Pacific Region
Project
China Environmental Cost Model (ECM)
Valuation of Environmental Health Risk (VEHR)
The Chinese Environmental Cost Model and Valuation of Environmental Health
Risks (CECM&VEHR) project has the overall objective to provide environmental
pollution costs for China. Among its components are studies regarding (i) water pollution
health impacts; (ii) air pollution health impacts; and (iii) acid rain damages – crop output
reduction, material and forestry damage. The study on health impacts of air pollution, as
proposed in its Inception Report Phase II, focuses on ambient – or outdoor – air pollution
in forty-seven key environmental protection cities in China. These cities altogether
account for 40% of the total urban population and 60% of the total urban GDP in China.
However, according to recent studies of international agencies – World Health
Organization (WHO), World Bank, and Health Effects Institute (HEI), the magnitude and
prevalence of exposure to indoor air pollution is still high in Asia, including China,
especially among the poor population (e.g. HEI, 2004; World Bank, 2002). Indoor air
pollution may pose a significant health risk to the exposed population; perhaps higher
than outdoor air pollution health risks, since individuals’ exposure to pollutants from
indoor sources may exceed their exposure to these pollutants from outdoor sources (Desai
et al., 2004). For example, Smith and Mehta (2003) concluded that indoor air pollution is
responsible for about twice the deaths and five times the disability-adjusted life years lost
related to urban air pollution in developing countries. Vand der Klaauw and Wang (2004)
showed that child mortality in rural India is lower in families that use clean cooking fuel
20
than in families that use wood, crop residues or dung cakes as cooking fuel. A similar
result was observed in rural China (Jacoby and Wang, 2004).
In China, indoor air pollution is a relevant problem because of the large number
of people still dependant on coal and biomass fuels for cooking and heating. According to
World Bank (2001), there were over 156 million urban residents using gaseous fuels for
cooking and water heating in 1998 in China, while in 1991 this figure was 40 million. For
example, Qian et al. (2004) showed that across eight urban and suburban districts in four
Chinese cities – Chongqing, Guangzhou, Lanzhou, and Wuhan – approximately 51% to
71% of households still use coal for heating or cooking. Alford et al. (2002) concluded
that despite the increasing importance of natural gas in urban areas of China, coal, wood
and other biomass fuels remain the primary heating and cooking fuels for the great
majority of Chinese. Rural households burn all the biomass used in the country, and
biomass accounts for 70% of the fuel used by rural households nationwide.
Given the evidences mentioned above, it is believed that estimates of health
impacts of indoor air pollution represent a significant share of the total environmental
costs in China, and should be contemplated in the CECM&VEHR project. However, it is
acknowledged the difficulty involved, such as differentiating the impacts of ambient and
indoor air pollution. For example, Bruce et al. (2002) stated that most exposure to air
pollution from outdoor sources actually occurs indoors, because outdoor air pollutants
often penetrate indoor environments and people spend most of their time indoors. It is
necessary “to understand better how air pollution from indoor sources contributes to
levels of outdoor air pollution and how indoor exposure to air pollution from indoor
sources affects risk estimates for outdoor air pollution” (HEI, 2004).
The objective of this paper is to review the recent international literature on health
impacts of indoor air pollution in order to identify the best practices in dealing with the
problem of estimating health effects of indoor air pollution. The results of this literature
review would be the basis for a proposal of an adaptation of the Chinese Environmental
Cost Model (CECM) so that it can account for indoor air pollution health effects as well.
This paper must provide some material for discussion among the team of experts
involved in the CECM&VEHR project. It is organized as follows: it starts with a review
of the relevant health impacts and main pollutants related to indoor air pollution. Section
3 shows the recent economic studies that aim to estimate health impacts of indoor air
pollution and section 4 presents the recent epidemiological studies developed in China
and elsewhere. Section 5 summarizes how health effects of ambient air pollution are
defined in the Chinese environmental cost model and section 6 introduces a proposal of
an adaptation in the CECM valuation model to include estimates of health effects from
exposure to indoor air pollution in China, based on the fuel-based approach suggested in
the pertinent international literature and the data availability indicated in the Inception
Report Phase II. It is proposed:
(a) To focus on indoor air pollution from solid fuel use in China;
(b) To consider the health endpoints that are strongly related with indoor air pollution
from solid fuel use – chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; acute respiratory
infections; and lung cancer – and asthma, which is moderately related with indoor air
pollution from solid fuel use;
21
(c) To separate the exposed population between those exposed to ambient air pollution
(urban population) and indoor air pollution (rural households);
(d) To consider the health impacts of indoor air pollution from solid fuel use in specific
population groups – children under 5 years-old and adult women;
(e) To use selected Chinese odds-ratios, when possible.
An application of the proposed approach to estimate the number of attributable
cases of different diseases related to indoor air pollution from solid fuel use in China is
presented in section 7. It is used data available in the literature (WHO – Global Burden of
Disease, 2002). A simple economic valuation exercise was undertaken in order to provide
the magnitude of the economic costs associated with indoor air pollution from solid fuel
use in China.
22
5. Present and Future Contributions of the Household
Sector to Emissions of Black Carbon in China
David G. Streets
Argonne National Laboratory
Argonne, IL 60439, U.S.A.
Paper presented at
Workshop on Mitigation of Air Pollution and Climate Change in China
Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters
Oslo, Norway
October 17-19, 2004
Extended Abstract
China is the largest contributing nation to global emissions of carbonaceous
aerosols, and the household (or residential) sector is the largest contributing sector to
China’s emissions. Thus, household energy use in China is very important for
determining regional concentrations of carbonaceous aerosols, changes in net radiative
forcing, and the potential for regional modification of precipitation and temperature
patterns. In addition, because it is a significant contributor to global emissions, household
emissions of carbonaceous aerosols offer the prospect of a contribution to Kyoto-like
reductions in greenhouse species. Because of the high exposure levels of fine particles
from household fuel combustion, human health effects are also implicated. This paper
presents estimates of emissions of black carbon in China during the period 1980-2000,
supplemented with projections for the years 2030 and 2050 under four IPCC scenarios.
The results presented here are strictly for East Asia (consisting of P.R. China, North
Korea, South Korea, Mongolia, and Taiwan, China), but P.R. China dominates the
emission profiles. We do not include here the emissions of organic carbon, though they
are under development. Results are based on a recent inventory of global BC emissions
for 1996 [Bond et al., 2004], historical trends presently under development for NASA,
and future trends of carbonaceous aerosols [Streets et al., 2004].
Fuel use in East Asia grew at a rapid pace during the 1980s and early 1990s.
Figure 1 shows a rising trend from 2.0 Pg of fuel combusted (including our estimates of
open biomass burning) in 1980 to 2.8 Pg in 1995, the maximum over the 20-year period.
Between 1995 and 2000, fuel use apparently declined to about 2.5 Pg, which has a variety
of possible explanations that will be discussed in other papers. Figure 1 shows a generally
declining use of direct fuel combustion in the household sector, offset by increases in
industrial and power fuel combustion, and a rapidly rising transport contribution. Driven
by these changes in fuel use, BC emissions rose from 1.8 Tg in 1980 to a peak of 2.3 Tg
in 1988, and declined markedly thereafter to a value of 1.4 Tg in 2000 (Figure 2). This
decrease arises because the relative contribution to total BC emissions from the
household sector is greater than that from industry and considerably greater than that
from the power sector, due to differences in BC emission rates [Bond et al., 2004]. These
23
trends are generally supported by the limited measurements of PM concentrations that are
available in China; however, more work is needed to confirm this. We also urgently need
tests of BC emission factors for small sources in China.
Figure 1 Fuel Use Trends in East Asia
3000000
Fuel Use (Gg)
2500000
Total
Residential
Industry
Power
Transport
Biomass Burning
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
1980
1985
1990
Year
24
1995
2000
Figure 2 BC Emission Trends in East Asia
2500
BC Emissions (Gg)
2000
1500
Total
Residential
Industry
Power
Transport
Biomass Burning
1000
500
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
We project that BC emissions from the residential sector will continue to decline
in the future, as coal-burning stoves are gradually replaced by more advanced
technologies and cleaner fuels, such as natural gas, LPG, and electricity. The projected
BC emissions presented here come from a forecasting model we have built that includes
112 combinations of sector, fuel, and technology. We use IPCC forecasts from the
IMAGE model to give the general specifications of energy and fuel use by sector for 17
world regions [RIVM, 2001]. These already embody many fuel-switching trends in the
household sector. In addition, we incorporate espected technology shifts and improved
technology performance over time. We have examined four of the major IPCC scenarios:
A1B, A2, B1, and B2 for 2030 and 2050 [IPCC, 2001; Nakicenovic et al., 2000]. Our
general expectations are shown in Figure 3. The A2 scenario—which is one of high
population growth, slow economic development, and low technology turnover—shows
continued use of biofuels in rather large amounts in China. The other scenarios are more
favorable to reduced BC emissions. The reduction in direct household use of coal and
biofuels is offset by large increases in the use of natural gas and electricity, but these
have very low BC emission rates.
25
Figure 3 BC Emissions from the Household Sector
1800
BC Emissions (Gg)
1600
1400
A1B Scenario
A2 Scenario
1200
B1 Scenario
B2 Scenario
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Year
While BC emissions from coal use decline to almost zero under all scenarios, we
forecast a continuation of emissions from the combustion of crop residues and fuelwood,
especially under the A2 scenario. This is because of the continuing rise in rural
population in China and the slow penetration into rural areas of alternative fuels for
heating and cooking. Many remote rural areas will continue to use traditional stove
designs for heating and cooking, with no improvement in emission rate expected.
Improved cookstoves will begin to increase their share of the stove population, but this
does not greatly reduce BC emissions by 2050 (see Figures 4 and 5).
26
Figure 4 BC Emissions from Fuelwood Use
160
BC Em issions (Gg)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1970
A1B Scenario
A2 Scenario
B1 Scenario
B2 Scenario
1990
2010
2030
2050
Year
Figure 5 BC Emissions from Crop Residues
B C Em issions (Gg)
350
300
250
200
150
A1B Scenario
100
A2 Scenario
50
0
1970
B1 Scenario
B2 Scenario
1990
2010
2030
2050
Year
As a result of these fuel use and technology changes, the profile of contributors to
BC emissions from the household sector is projected to change dramatically over the 50year period from 1980 to 2030. Whereas coal was by far the largest contributor in 1980, it
will cease to be so by 2030, as coal-fired stoves are mostly eliminated, leaving the rural
combustion of crop residues and fuelwood as the predominant contributors by 2030
(Figures 6 and 7).
27
Figure 6 Shares of Residential
BC Emissions in 1980
Crop Residues
Animal Waste
Municipal Waste
Fuelwood
Coal
Oil, LPG
Figure 7 Shares of Residential BC
Emissions in 2030 (A2 Scenario)
Crop Residues
Animal Waste
Municipal Waste
Fuelwood
Coal
Oil, LPG
The forecasted trend towards reduced BC emissions from the household sector is
clearly a positive one for future regional and global climate change, not to mention
inhalation health effects. However, these trends will not happen without positive
measures to achieve change. These include the development and dissemination of
improved cookstoves for rural use, restrictions on the use of coal in the home, rural
electrification programs, the rapid expansion of the natural gas network to medium and
smaller towns, and the availability of renewable energy (biogas, for example) and clean
fossil fuels like LPG. A way to foster such developments might be to fold BC into a
Kyoto-like global climate change mitigation agreement. Such an initiative would offer an
opportunity to engage China and other developing countries, which have thus far resisted
efforts to get them to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A new compact might have the
following attributes:
The U.S. and Europe (and other developed countries) reduce CO2 emissions, because:
•
•
They are the cause of most of the accumulated CO2
They can (arguably) afford the more expensive measures of CO2 control
28
•
•
They will accrue ancillary energy security benefits
They can contribute a long-term solution.
China and other developing countries reduce BC emissions, because:
•
•
•
•
They are the cause of most of the emitted BC
They can (arguably) afford the less expensive measures of BC control
They will accrue ancillary health and ecological benefits
They can contribute a short-term solution.
It is clear that the effects of carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere are
becoming increasingly important from many different perspectives. By incorporating
them into a climate agreement a number of benefits can be achieved, perhaps not the least
of them being the development of a true global compact in which all countries play a role
in mitigating the effects of climate change, each according to their means. This can serve
to focus development aid more sharply towards those source types and those countries
that generate the fine particles. Lending agencies, such as the World Bank, the Asian
Development Bank, U.S. AID, etc., will find impetus to consolidate development, health,
and climate goals.
References
Bond, T.C., D.G. Streets, S.D. Fernandes, S.M. Nelson, K.F. Yarber, J.-H. Woo, and Z. Klimont,
A technology-based global inventory of black and organic carbon emissions from combustion, J.
Geophys. Res., 109, D14203, doi:10.1029/2003JD003697, 2004.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, edited by J.T. Houghton et al., Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom
and New York, NY, 2001.
Nakicenovic, N., et al., Emissions Scenarios: A special report of Working Group III of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK,
2000.
RIVM, The IMAGE 2.2 implementation of the SRES scenarios: A comprehensive analysis of
emissions, climate change and impacts in the 21st century [RIVM CD-ROM publication
481508018], National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The
Netherlands, July 2001.
Streets, D.G., T.C. Bond, T. Lee, and C. Jang, On the future of carbonaceous aerosol emissions,
J. Geophys. Res., in review, 2004.
29
6. Environmental and Economic Implications of Phasing
Out Direct Use of Solid Fuels for Cooking
Eric D. Larson
Research Engineer/Associated Faculty
Princeton Environmental Institute
Princeton University, USA
Abstract
There were an estimated 1.06 billion people relying partially or exclusively on solid
fuels for cooking and heating in China in 2001, one-quarter of these in urban areas and
three-quarters in rural areas. The considerable negative impacts of indoor pollution from
cooking with solid fuels on health and on economic and social development are
beginning to be well documented. There are a number of possible clean gas and liquid
fuels that might be substitutes for solid fuels in the future in China.
LPG is currently the most widely used clean cooking fuel in China, but its penetration
is largely limited to urban and relatively wealthy areas. Demand for LPG grew nearly
16% per year from 1995 to 2001. Imports in 2001 accounted for one-third of
consumption and will likely continue to grow, given China’s relatively modest domestic
oil and gas resources. Imported LPG prices track international oil prices. As oil prices
rise in the future, importing LPG will become an increasingly expensive proposition for
China. Moreover, China’s LPG consumption is larger than that of any other developing
country, and as Chinese LPG demand grows, global competition for available supplies of
LPG will intensify, ultimately contributing to still higher international LPG prices. High
LPG prices will limit the extent to which imported LPG can meet China’s domestic
needs, especially the needs of inland provinces where added transportation costs are
involved.
A potentially significant alternative to LPG for meeting clean fuel needs in China is
dimethyl ether (DME). DME has properties very similar to LPG as a cooking fuel, but is
potentially much more widely available than LPG in China because it can be
manufactured from coal. Preliminary analysis suggests that coal-derived DME in China
could be competitive with imported LPG in many regions of the country, even at
relatively modest world oil prices.
For coal-derived DME to become a viable commercial household fuel in China will
require successful demonstrations of the production, distribution, and utilization of DME.
Planning for at least one major coal-DME production facility is at an advanced stage in
China, and some significant testing of DME as a household fuel has already taken place
there. The most economical approach to making DME from coal will be at facilities that
co-produce DME and electricity. The ability of such facilities to sell the electricity at
appropriately remunerative prices is a requirement for the most attractive economics.
Thus, national policies that ensure that independent power producers will be able to sell
electricity to the grid would facilitate the growth of a coal-DME industry in China. With
co-production of DME and electricity, there would be significant savings (25-30 %) in
primary coal needed to meet a given demand for cooking energy services plus electricity.
While coal-derived DME may be able to become competitive with imported LPG,
even when world oil prices are relatively modest, until a large DME market develops,
imported LPG is likely to set the market price for clean cooking fuel in China. Thus,
30
when the world oil price is sufficiently high, there may be a large difference between
LPG price and DME cost, resulting in potential ‘‘windfall’’ profits for DME suppliers.
Since clean cooking fuel (whether DME or LPG) may be unaffordable for many lowincome households, a windfall-profits tax might be introduced on DME suppliers, with
the tax revenue used to subsidize clean-fuel purchases by the poorest households.
31
7. Growth Policies and Environmental Policies in China
Mun S. Ho & Dale W. Jorgenson
October 2004
Abstract (extended)
There are many studies examining the impact of air pollution and analyzing
policies to mitigate the high level of environmental damage in China. There are both
industry case studies and national assessments, including World Bank (1997), ECON
(2000), and Aunan, Fang, Vennemo, Oye and Seip (2002). Few of these studies,
however, make an integrated estimate of the economic costs and environmental benefits
of the policies covering the whole economy, the exceptions being Ho, Jorgenson and Di
(2002) and Aunan et. al. (2002). This study is an extension of Ho, Jorgenson and Di
(2002) and examines how pollution control taxes affect economic performance and
government finances on one hand, and health damages on the other.
We first estimate the health damage caused by outdoor air pollution, limiting
ourselves to particulate matter and sulfur dioxide for now. Our earlier study had assumed
a simple linear relation between emissions and ambient concentrations, a methodology
taken from World Bank (Clear Water Blue Skies, 1997) and Lvovksy and Hughes (1997).
That method ignored secondary particles from SO2 and NOx, and attributed relatively
little damage to the electric power industry, and much more to the cement industry. In
this paper we apply a different methodology to estimate exposures to pollution – the
intake fraction method. This consist of running air dispersion models on a sample of
emission sources, and combining with population density data, estimate the total quantity
of pollutants ingested relative to the quantity of emissions, the intake fraction (iF). The
pollutants modeled are primary particles, SO2, and secondary sulfates and nitrates, e.g.
iF(SO4/SO2) is the grams of sulfates breathed relative to the grams of SO2 emitted from
a particular source, and is of the order of 10-5 to 10-6.
These intake fractions were estimated for the most polluting industries –
electricity, cement, iron and steel, chemicals, and transportation. We combined the
sample results with national data for these industries (data on output, location and
32
population density) and arrive at national average intake fractions for the three pollutants
for each sector. This exposure rate is then multiplied by dose-response coefficients to
give the health effects, e.g. number of cases of premature mortality. The health effects are
then multiplied by valuations to give the damage value in yuan which can then be
compared with the yuan cost of pollution control. Many studies of China use valuations
that are translated from those derived in U.S. surveys. We use information from a
“willingness-to-pay” survey conducted in China by Hammit and Zhou (2002). These
valuations are considerably lower than those employed by most others including Clear
Water Blue Skies.
Using these intake fractions and the national data on industry emissions of TSP
and SO2 we estimate the value of health damages for each of 34 sectors, including
households. Total air pollution health damage is estimated to be 140 billion yuan, or
about 2% of GDP using our central parameter values for dose-response and valuation. As
is well known, there is much uncertainty about these coefficients, and when alternative
values are used the damages are as low as 1% of GDP or as high as 4.5%.
Our intake fractions are not comprehensive, there are some sources of emissions
that have been left out, e.g. secondary nitrates and desert dust. The World Bank/LvovskyHughes method starts from the observed concentrations in various Chinese cities and
estimates the total damage from them, and then allocates the total to the various sectors.
This measure of total damages is thus comprehensive although the allocation to the
industries is not as well defined as the iF method. When this method is used the total
national air pollution damages is 230 billion yuan, or about 3% of GDP.
While the iF method leaves out some sources of pollution, it does distinguish
between primary and secondary PM, and hence gives a sharper industry allocation. Of the
total 140 billion yuan of damages, primary particulates only account for 56 billion, the
remainder is due to secondary PM and SO2. The electricity sector is the biggest source of
damage contributing some 26% of the total, followed by cement and other nonmetallic
products with 13%. These high estimates are due to the high coal use and high primary
PM and SO2 emissions in both industries. In contrast, the Lvovsky-Hughes method
allocates 18% of total damages to cement and only 5% to electricity. This is because the
secondary sulfates from the high SO2 emissions are not taken explicitly into account.
33
Both methods attribute a high 10% of damages to the transportation sector. This share is
likely to increase with the rapid growth of motor vehicles and urbanization and should be
a major focus of pollution control policy.
With these pollution damage estimates, we estimate the industry damage rate, the
yuan of health damage per yuan of industry output, and the yuan of damage per ton of
coal/oil/gas. This damage rates are then fed into an economic-environment model of the
Chinese economy. In this model economic growth is driven by population change, labor
quality improvements, capital accumulation and improvements in production technology.
It distinguishes 33 industries plus the household sector. In the base case, or “business-asusual” scenario, the model projects GDP to grow at 5.1% per year over the next 30 years,
while energy use only grows at a 3.3% rate. The growth of coal use is projected at 2.3%
while oil use is at 5.2%, consistent with the expectations of energy efficiency
improvements and rapid growth of motor vehicles.
We find that a policy that imposes even moderate taxes on fuels could reduce
health damages by 20%, lower GDP by 0.1%, and lower aggregate consumption by 0.5%
in the short run. Depending on how the pollution tax revenues are used, the long run
effects could be positive on GDP. For example, if these revenues are recycled towards
investment then consumption and GDP over the longer term are both higher. The value of
the health damage reduced by this moderate fuel tax policy is about 1% of GDP in the
short run. Depending on how one wishes to weigh present versus future consumption, the
sacrifice of consumption over time is about an order of magnitude smaller than the
benefit in damage reduction. This cost benefit ratio is in line with the estimates in Clear
Water Blue Skies.
A more broadly based, but less efficient, policy which taxes output based on the
amount of pollution damage produced could reduce health damages by 3% a year, and in
the short run lower GDP by 0.1% and lower consumption by 0.3%. The fuel tax policy is
more effective but requires large adjustments in the Coal sector. The choice of policies
would depend on the ability of the government to help the heavily taxed sector to adjust.
Many recent studies have examined whether the traditional Pigovian tax (i.e. a tax
equal to the marginal damage caused by the externality) is appropriate if we consider an
economy that have many other tax distortions already in place. This is related to the
34
question whether it is possible to have a double dividend, i.e. lower negative externalities
and higher economic efficiency (Bovenberg and de Mooij 1994, Goulder, Parry and
Burtraw 1997, and Metcalf 2000). While we do not directly ask what the optimal system
of taxes to correct air pollution externalities is, we do examine the effects of employing
taxes that are related to the level of pollution emitted, i.e. the effects on sector prices,
output, consumption and economic growth.
In the output tax policy, electricity, cement and transportation have the highest
damage per yuan of output and are thus hit with the highest taxes. This result in a general
increase in goods prices and real wages fall leading to a fall in consumption in the first
period. The prices of these dirty sectors rise relative to those of the cleaner sectors, and
demand for them falls. This leads to a modest reduction in emissions and health damages.
The revenue raised from this tax is large allowing a huge cut in value-added and capital
income taxes. This leads to higher retained earnings and hence investment. This higher
investment leads to higher future GDP which means higher emissions and smaller
improvements in pollution reduction.
The pattern of sector emission reductions is notable. The Electricity sector is not
only hit with a high tax, but the major users of electricity like cement and iron & steel are
also more heavily taxed. There is thus a big reduction in demand and output of electricity.
This illustrates the importance of using an input-output framework.
35
8. How efficient is the Clean Development Mechanism in
reducing carbon emissions? The case of coal cleaning
in China.
5 October 2004, Solveig Glomsrød
Abstract
The Kyoto Protocol seems finally to approach the stage of approval, and the Green
Development Mechanism (CDM) will be activated as a forum for trade in carbon
emission permits. Procedures for approval of CDM projects are being developed to
ensure the efficiency of projects in terms of carbon emission reductions. Still, problems
in identifying the total results of a CDM project might prevail. One important problem
relates to the concern that CDM projects might influence emissions outside the project
borders. Such indirect effects (leakage) might possibly be large in comparison with the
initially estimated and credited emission reductions at project level.
According to CDM procedures, applicants for project approval should indicate the extent
of leakage in their project. However, so far there is little empirical evidence as guidance
in this process. Land use change and forestry projects have generally been regarded as
more prone to leakage effects than energy sector projects.
The expected potential for CDM energy sector projects in China is high, as the economy
is mainly based on coal use and there is a considerable technology gap to close. China is
the world's second largest energy consumer, and current energy forecasts emphasise that
China’s future energy consumption also will rely heavily on coal. The coal use is the
major source of the greenhouse gas CO2, and the coal sector is thus a natural target for
CDM projects in China.
Coal cleaning might possibly improve energy efficiency and reduce CO2 emissions. In a
conventional coal cleaning process, impurities are washed out, increasing the energy
content of the final coal product. As a consequence, more heat value is generated per
tonne carbon burnt, or inversely, less carbon is emitted per unit energy obtained.
36
A switch to cleaner coal would have significant effect on transportation demand. Raw
coal contains a large amount of waste that now is transported long distances. The
majority of coalmines are located in the North and North-west of China, while coastal
cities and provinces dominate the demand. In the coal cleaning process there is a net
reduction in transportation demand of about 20 percent per unit thermal energy.
The heat value gains following a switch to cleaned coal leads to reduced demand for raw
coal and the price of coal is lowered. Similarly, the reduced need for transportion
provides other users with additional supply of transportation to a slightly lower price.
Thus the energy saving obtained by increasing the share of cleaned coal generates a
feedback to all coal users as a lower cost of using coal. Hence, there is a feedback from a
coal cleaning project to non-project coal users, encouraging more coal use.
To capture these indirect effects, a coal cleaning project is studied within a CGE model
for China. The macro approach catches the repercussions of coal cleaning through
increased energy efficiency, lower coal transportation costs and crowding out effect of
investments in coal washing plants.
Intuitively, the higher heat value, lower emissions and reduced transportation cost of
washed coal should make coal cleaning an excellent CDM project. However, the study
shows that coal cleaning increases total energy use, increase coal use and CO2 emissions
through a rebound effect.
In this case, the carbon leakage is more than 100 percent. A similar result will occur for
other CDM projects that involve increased efficiency in coal combustion. In all such
cases the degree of efficiency improvement (and capacity to reduce carbon emissions)
will determine the extent of repercussion in the coal and transportation markets.
A preliminary conclusion of our study might be that leakages in all kind of CDM projects
should be considered more closely to secure the confidence in CDM as climate policy.
37
9. Experiences with analysing the trade-environment
nexus in Norwegian CGE models
Taran Fæhn
Both within the fields of trade liberalisation and within environmental policy, several
multinational agreements have been effectuated, motivated by mutual benefits of each
other's liberalisation and abatement efforts. However, the multinational agreements still
have shortcomings in dealing with the interfaces between changes in international trade
and environmental quality, and in particular, the interactions between policy restrictions
designed to obtain goals in each of the respective fields. Due to the many-faceted
interlinkages between trade and environmental quality, this interface has represented a
prominent part of the research agenda during the recent decades. Special attention has
been devoted to the environmental effects of trade liberalisation, as well as to the traderelated effects of abatement policy within open economies.
In the field of trade liberalisation, the multinational agreements have been extensively
analysed (IISD, 2004). The Uruguay Round, the agenda of the Doha negotiations, as well
as various regional agreements, have been discussed with respect to their environmental
impacts. Much emphasis is given to the environmental impacts of changes within specific
countries or regions, or within specific industries, like agriculture, fisheries and
electricity. There has been concern for the possibility of trade laws to curtail the
regulatory ability of national jurisdictions. Also, the environmental effects through
enhancing - or possibly hampering - growth, have been focused. If technology transfer or
simply more efficient use of resources are effects of trade liberalisation, then the
interlinkages between economic welfare and the environment will be important
determinants to the impacts of trade policy. This is the subject of the literature on the
Environmental Kuznets Curve, asking whether there is a possible inversed U-shaped
relation between income and environmental quality (Shafik and Bandyopadhyay, 1992).
38
In the field of abatement policies, the altering of comparative advantages and subsequent
trade impacts have been of particular concern. On the one hand, the developing countries
worry about their market access to be hampered by regulations in the export markets. On
the other hand, the hypothesis of pollution havens claim that relatively strict countries
with respect to environmental regulations are in danger of being de-industrialised in
favour of laxer, and typically less developed, countries. Agglomeration mechanisms
could strengthen such tendencies (Neary, 1999). The Porter hypothesis (Porter and Linde,
1995), though controversial, is more optimistic on behalf of regulating countries and
points to the possibilities of raising profit or welfare gains through abatement. Related to
the competitiveness issue is the possibility that pollutions leak across borders (Suri and
Chapman, 1998), as dirty production processes relocate abroad.
The presentation will refer to challenges encountered and results obtained from CGE
model analyses of these issues in a small, open economy context. Impacts of trade and
competition policy, as well as environmental and climate policy will be addressed. CGE
model analyses have the advantage that they are able to capture and consistently deal
with complicated interlinkages between public policy measures, the impacts on the
behaviour of private agents, and the resulting effects on the macro economy, international
trade flows, and the environment. At the same time, model analyses can be used to isolate
particular effects and mechanisms in order to make results of complicated structures
understandable. In particular, the effects of interactions among different policy
instruments, including trade and abatement policy instruments, can be grasped.
The presentation will discuss problems related to measurement and modelling of trade
barriers, abatement policy, and pollution. In particular, it will stress trade-offs in the
estimations of trade barriers and the particular challenges in measuring service trade and
barriers. It will illustrate the qualitatively different impacts of price-oriented trade
barriers, like tariffs, and quantity-oriented measures like quotas. The role of trade barriers
in redistributing both among countries and among national institutions will be discussed.
Different models of abatement policies, and in particular climate policies, will be
39
presented. Detailed modelling of emissions and possible feedback mechanisms between
emissions and productivity will be addressed.
The studies that will be presented will thoroughly illustrate the central mechanisms,
through which trade and the environment are interlinked, including growth, technological
change, industrial patterns, competitiveness, and pollution leakages.
40
10. China’s development challenges and climate policy:
CDM projects, energy and health
Gørild Heggelund, Fridtjof Nansen Institute
goerild.heggelund@fni.no
Abstract for the workshop Mitigation of air pollution and climate change in China
17-19 October, Oslo
Introduction
China is an emerging superpower and one of the most important players in the climate
change debate and regime. It is therefore important that we understand its position and
strategic thinking on such matters. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, to broaden
our understanding of China’s relationship to development challenges and climate change
issues. China’s policymaking in this area is closely related to its economic development
policy to the thrust of which is aimed at alleviating poverty and modernising the country.
But despite China’s rapid economic growth the past three decades, poverty alleviation
and satisfaction of basic human needs remain urgent priorities. The paper attempts to
relate the climate change issue to China’s development issue and explain the
developments and their likely impact on policymaking in the foreseeable future. Second,
China participates in the global climate co-operation through the Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol, which links the local pollution problems in
China with a global emissions reductions scheme. China has recently approved an
organisational apparatus for identifying, approving and implementing CDM projects.
Household cook stoves in rural areas are a source of local (and global) pollution as well
as one of the primary sources of indoor pollution in China and pose severe health risks
for people. The paper will introduce the current state of CDM in China, the priorities of
the Chinese government with regard to CDM projects and look into (speculate on) the
possibility of CDM projects in the rural area related to cook stoves and sources of rural
household energy. The paper also touches upon to what extent environmental and health
41
considerations is part of Chinese policy related to rural energy improvement, such as
cook stoves.
Background and issues to be discussed
China, with a population of nearly 1.3 billion people, diminishing natural resources,
serious environmental pollution and rapid economic growth, has all the components of a
typical developmental dilemma. Since the late 1970s and the initiation of Deng
Xiaoping’s new economic policy, political priorities have been to alleviate poverty and
improve the lives of China’s citizens through the policy of the Four Modernisations. The
results of this policy are evident in rapid economic growth and higher living standards for
millions of people. The country has succeeded in reducing the number of poor from 230
million in 1978 to 30 million in 2000 (Office of the UN Co-ordinator 2004). However,
the World Bank estimates that 400 million survive on less than 2 USD per day (Murphy
2004). Rural poor have a per capita income below USD 78 (RMB 625, Office of the UN
Co-ordinator 2004). China’s economic growth has come at great costs (7 per cent of GDP
in the 1990s, Wu 2003), however, and is partly to blame for the continuing degeneration
of the country’s environment and the depletion of natural resources.
Climate change is one area where the conflict between poverty and sustainable
development is most apparent, as it is closely linked to economic development, resource
management, poverty alleviation and energy use. Although some may see positive effects
from global warming, the country also suffers from effects of climate change such as
increased flooding (AfDB 2003). Globally, China is the second largest emitter after the
US in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and is expected to surpass the US by 2020 (IEA
2000). Global climate change is not a critical priority for China, as the country is facing a
broad range of issues ranging from poverty alleviation, health issues, local pollution
problems and natural disasters. Moreover, the country’s main priorities are economic
growth and social stability. The global climate change issue is therefore remote for
China, considered a matter of foreign policy, and is thereby affected by spillover from
other foreign policy areas. China feels that bowing to pressure to adopt reduction targets
would be tantamount to sacrificing sovereignty and threatening economic growth.
42
Despite the fact that environmental impacts associated with economic growth are being
recognised by Chinese authorities, economic growth remains an urgent priority to bridge
the growing gap between rich and poor. This is illustrated by the new leadership’s
decision following the 16th Party Congress in November 2002 to make the rural poor in
China a priority.
China has been sceptical to the introduction of the flexible mechanisms under the
UNFCCC and saw the mechanisms, Joint Implementation (JI) and the CDM as
instruments for developed countries to escape responsibility. The country’s position on
the flexible mechanisms has, however, become more pragmatic with greater focus on
maximising benefits. The process of setting up a national system for identification,
approval and implementation of CDM projects in China illustrates the changes in Chinese
thinking on CDM after COP7. China finally announced the establishment of a Designated
National Authority (DNA) in June 2004 after some delay, and the State Council at last
adopted and issued provisional rules for management of CDM projects (NDRC 2004).
The presentation will attempt to relate these developments to the rural dilemma of cook
stoves burning coal, biomass, that are a source for greenhouse gas emissions as well as
causing health problems. China’s National Improved Stoves Programme ended in 1995
and is regarded as a successful energy efficiency programme. The purpose of this
Programme was to reduce fuel shortage, not for public health or environmental reasons.
Cook stoves are a primary source of indoor air pollution in China; it also contributes to
local and global air pollution. The presentation looks into to what extent CDM projects
could be one way to approach the energy and environmental issue in rural areas. Some
examples will be given from other countries using biomass in energy such as in Thailand
where rice husk power project is applicable for biomass fired power generation project
activities displacing grid electricity. Such projects would cover project activities using
unutilised biomass and that are too dispersed to be used for grid electricity (Point Carbon
2003).
43
References
AfDB et al. (2003), Poverty and Climate Change. Reducing the Vulnerability of
the poor through Adaptation (part 1 and part 2), www.worldbank.org/povcc (publications,
PDF).
Gan, Lin (1998), Energy development and environmental constraints in China, Energy
Policy, Vol. 26.
IEA (2000): World Energy Outlook 2000, IEA: Paris
Murphy, David (2004), The Dangers of Too Much Success, Far Eastern Economic
Review, June 10.
NDRC (2004), ∇Υ:6ψ⎩∠Λϒ Λ ∏, http://cdm.ccchina.gov.cn/ and Interim
Measures for Operation and Management of Clean Development Mechanism
Projects in China, http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/english/
Ni, Weidou and Thomas B. Johansson (2004), Energy for sustainable development in
China, Energy Policy, 32.
NREL, http://www.nrel.gov/biomass/
Office of the United Nations Resident Co-ordinator (2004), Millennium Development
Goals. China’s Progress 2003, An Assessment by the UN Country Team in
China, Beijing, China.
Point Carbon (17.10. 2003), Four CDM Methodologies approved, www.pointcarbon.com
Sinton, Jonathan E. and David G. Friedley (2000), ‘What goes up: recent trends in
China’s energy consumption’, Energy Policy, 28.
Streets, David G., Kejun Jiang, Xiulian Hu, Jonathan E. Sinton, Xiao-Quan Zhang,
Deying Xu, Mark Z. Kjacobson and James E. Hansen (2001), Recent Reductions
in China’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Science, Vol. 294, 30 November, pp.
1835-1837.
Wei Lin, Gørild Heggelund, Kristian Tangen and Li Jun Feng, Efficient Implementation
of the Clean Development Mechanism in China, ?, FNI Report 1/2004.
Wu, Yanrui (2003), ‘Deregulation and growth in China’s energy sector: a review of
recent development’, Energy Policy, 31, 1417-1425.
44
11. Developing Air Quality Management Strategies in
Liaoning Province in North-East China
Mike Holland
EMRC, 2 New Buildings, Whitchurch Hill, Reading RG8 7PW, UK
Phone: +44-118-984 3748
Email: mike.holland@emrc.co.uk
Web: http://www.emrc.co.uk/
The Liaoning Integrated Environmental Programme (LIEP)
The following activities were carried out in the LIEP:
• Raising Environmental Awareness
• Water Resource Management
• Air Quality Management
• Capacity Building
• Energy Management
• Cleaner Production
• Industrial Restructuring
• Investment Promotion
Further details on the overall programme are available on the internet (http://www.euliep.org/). The design of the programme is very ambitious, but, at the same time, clearly
very sensible, in that it seeks to deal with a range of related environmental problems in a
consistent and co-ordinated manner. The subject matter of this presentation is, however,
restricted to the air quality component that was led during its final stages by Steve Telling
of AEA Technology and Han Wancheng of the Chinese Office.
The air quality component was focused principally on five cities, Anshan, Benxi, Fushun,
Liaoyang and Shenyang. Of these, Shenyang is the largest with a population of around 4
million people. A few years ago it was one of the most polluted cities on the planet,
though considerable improvements have been made. The work done in the 5 cities is
being extended through all 14 cities of Liaoning Province.
Development of an framework for developing air quality improvement
strategies
The air quality component of LIEP set up the following key capabilities within the
Chinese team:
• Development and use of air quality monitoring stations
• Use of detailed dispersion models to enable staff to make projections of future air
quality and to test alternative strategies for air quality improvement
• Development of emission inventories
• Knowledge of techniques and strategies for reducing air pollution
45
•
•
Awareness of international standards
Quantification of the costs and benefits of improving air quality.
The project then demonstrated how these different elements could be combined to
generate cost-effective strategies for dealing with air pollution problems.
Quantifying health impacts
The use of Chinese rather than international data is essential for a number of reasons:
• Differences in demographics (population age structure)
• Genetic differences in populations
• Health status of the population, access to health care
• Differences in the importance of exposure indoors and outdoors
• And so on.
Considerable effort went into this aspect of the LIEP Air Quality work, led by Professor
Xu, based in Shenyang City. His work generated a set of response functions and
valuation data based on assessments performed in Chinese cities.
Principal recommendations for air quality improvement in Liaoning
The following measures were recommended most highly:
• Local point sources
o Development of efficient and clean district heating systems
o Improving coal quality
o Energy efficiency
• Local fugitive sources
o Paving roads
o Tree planting and increasing vegetation cover
o Management of stock piles
o Regulation of construction and demolition
• Road traffic
o Development of vehicle emission standards
o Improving fuel quality
o Promotion of cycling2
o Promotion of public transport
o Use of traffic control measures
o Road pricing.
Thoughts on future analysis of this type in China
One of the consequences of the city-focus of the analysis carried out in LIEP for air
pollution is that regional air quality problems are considered secondary. This echoes
early action on air pollution in Europe and the USA from the 1950s, when emission
2
Although many people currently use bicycles, their use is not being encouraged in the majority of Chinese cities.
European cities have learned that promotion of cycling is a key component of successful urban design, as promotes
mobility whilst reducing congestion, air pollution and noise.
46
sources within cities were tightly controlled, though sometimes in a way that would
worsen regional problems (leading, in fact, to the acid rain debate that has been going on
since the 1970s). Future analysis should seek to address regional issues as well, to ensure
optimal use of the limited money that is available. A simple way of doing this, useful at
least as a first screening process to see which sources might be prioritized for control, or
for developing a general understanding of the burdens imposed by different energy and
other technologies, would be to use the RiskPoll Model (Spadaro, 2004).
Through projects such as LIEP, models have emerged that could be extremely useful in
other applications. One such example is Lambda (Liaoning Air-quality Management
Benefit and Damage Assessment Model) which was developed to take air quality and
population data as input, and to output quantified and monetized estimates of various
health states.
Further thorough review of air pollution – health response and valuation functions should
be undertaken, considering the frameworks that have been developed in other parts of the
world (e.g. for US EPA and the EU through the CAFE-Clean Air For EuropeProgramme) alongside the strongly developing Chinese experience.
References
Further information on the LIEP can be found on the web at http://www.eu-liep.org/ .
Spadaro, J.V. (2004) The RiskPoll Model. Available through the author at
jaasspadaro@aol.com
47
12. Co-control: actions after co-benefits
Hu Tao (PRCEE, China)
Haakon Vennemo (ECON, Norway)
How co-benefits studies have evolved
By co-benefit we here mean the combined benefit arising from GHG-reduction and local
pollution control. Having followed the evolution of co-benefit studies closely, and having
taken part in several, we think that studies have evolved in 4 stages:
Stage 1 pre-co-benefit period: local pollution control policy and climate change
policy are thought independent;
Stage 2 co-benefit measurement period: it’s realized that local pollution and GHGs
are linked to each other and efforts to measure co-benefits are made.
Stage 3 co-benefit impact analysis period: co-benefit impacts on local pollution
control policy and GHG policy are analyzed.
Now it’s time consider to Stage 4: the co-control period.
Concept of co-control
The proposed concept of co-control means to actively control both GHGs and local
pollutants together, in order to maximize net benefits. Given a certain budget for
pollution control the measures should target both local pollution and GHGs. The
objective of co-control measures is to maximise co-benefits (co-benefits minus control
costs).
Compared with passively gaining co-benefits, the co-control concept will actively
search for co-benefits, and gain more. The concept is similar to integrated assessment of
pollution control, but we would like to emphasise policy as opposed to
analysis/assessment.
There are two level co-controls:
z co-control measures at the project level
z co-control actions at policy level
Case studies in China
48
Case 1: Beijing co-control measures
In 2030, if active co-control measures, including clean energy consumption
(CEC)+industry structure transformation (IST)+energy efficiency program (EEP)+green
transportation (GRE), are taken, then the results are estimated to be:
z 185 kt SO2, 415 kt NOx, 56 kt PM10
z 781 deaths avoid
z 1.38 billion RMB worth of health benefits
z 25.9 Million TCE energy demands and 10.5 million tonnes carbon reduction
Case 2: Shanghai co-control measures
In 2010 and 2020, if co-control measures are taken, the results are estimated to be:
z Avoided premature deaths due to change in PM10 concentrations will be 647~5,472
in 2010 and 1,265~11,130 in 2020, respectively
z Estimated Social Benefits of PM10 Reductions will be 113~950 million U.S. dollars
in 2010 and 327-2,884 million U.S. dollars in 2020
z Reduction of 9~47 million of metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2010 and 14-73
million of metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2020.
Case 3: Taiyuan CP promotion co-control measures
Six cleaner production measures are analysed. Some are shown to yield
impressive co-benefit. Others are not so promising, indicating the need for
careful analysis of individual cleaner production measures in order to yield
maximum benefits.
Design of co-control policy
A co-control policy should combine different co-control technical measures to reach
maximum of co-benefits.
Total Emission Control (TEC) is the major current pollution control policy of China.
It targets 12 local pollutants. During the implementation of TEC, China does gain some
co-benefits in the form of carbon reductions. But co-benefits are not pursued actively. If
we re-design TEC policy to add a GHG control goal, China and the world would gain
more co-benefits. The re-designed TEC as co-control policy should include more GHGs
reduction measures, such as energy efficiency measures, low carbon technology measures
etc.
If the new measures are not least-cost with respect to local pollutants in isolation, the
difference between actual cost and least cost is an incremental costs. The incremental cost
could be linked up with the CDM-mechanism and funded as CDM-projects. This would
have the added advantage of integrating CDM and TEC.
49
13. Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction from
Shijiazhuang Iron&Steel Co.,Ltd.
Tian Chunxiu, Li Liping, Hu Tao
Policy Research Center for Environment and Economy of SEPA, P.R.China
I.
Background and General Information of the Project
The project of greenhouse gas emission reduction from Shijiazhuang iron&steel co.ltd is
part of the UNEP GERIAP project (Greenhouse Emission Reduction from Industry in
Asia and the Pacific) funded by SIDA. The objective of the project is to encourage
industry to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and costs by improving its energy
efficiency. Four energy intensive sectors (Cement&Lime, Paper, Iron&Steel, Chemicals)
and nine countries (Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Mongolia, Sri Lank, Philippines,
P.R..China, Thailand and Viet Nam) are involved in the project. According to the plan,
six steps, plan and organize, analyze process with energy interaction, generate CP
(cleaner production) options, carry out feasibility analysis, implement monitor, and
sustain CP-EE project, will be running. Up to now, the first 3 steps have been finished.
There are five plants, Shijiazhuang iron&steel co., ltd, Linquan chemistry company
limited by shares, Jiangxi Yadong cement corporation, Tiandu paper limited company,
Yuanping chemical co.ltd, participated the GERIAP project in China. There are 8300
persons in Shijiazhuang iron&steel co., ltd, which established in 1957. And the annual
production in 2003 was 1.63 million tons (steel).
II. GHG Emission of Shijiazhuang Iron&Steel Co.,Ltd.
According to the IPCC methodology, fuel use, electricity use, industrial process,
transport will be considered in the GHG emission calculation. Considering just a little
share, the GHG emission from industrial process was ignored. Thus, the total GHG
emission in 2003 was 947,227 t CO2. Thereinto, GHG emission from electricity was
573,349 t CO2, account for 61% of the total GHG emission. See the following table.
Items
Fuel combustion
Electricity
Road transport
Total
tCO2
363,671
573,349
10,208
947,227
III. CP-EE Options and Its Co-benefits
After the survey in site, three focus areas for CP-EE, incandescent lamps, the converter furnaces, the
cooling water tower, were found.
50
And in these focus areas, the following options were decided.
Focus area
incandescent
lamps
The converter
furnace
options
incandescent lamps
Cogeneration to produce steam and electricity
Build steam accumulator
Use of the wasted steam for electricity generation
Steam leak survey and repair
Reduce nitrogen consumption
Reduce oxygen consumption
Reduce compressed air consumption
The cooling water Establish water balance & ensure water meter functioning
normally
tower
Change roof deck fan operating procedure or install VSD
motor
Biocide dosing injection pump
Increase cycles of concentration
Change water testing and monitoring equipment calibration
procedures
Specifically, we take incandescent lamps and building steam accumulator as examples to
analysis their co-benefits. For incandescent lamps, the estimated benefits will be acquired
from 306,780RMB economic savings and 609 t CO2 emission reduction as well as other
air pollutants emission reduction if the incandescent lamps (in offices, meeting-rooms,
toilets, change-rooms) will be replaced by lamps of energy saving. For building steam
accumulator, the estimated benefits will be acquired from RMB 7.4 million/year
economic savings and 148,000 t soft water saved per year as well as indirect reductions
of GHG emissions. However, it needs to be mentioned that not all options have both
economic benefits and GHG emission reduction at the same time. That is exact the main
barriers of GHG emission reduction.
IV. Policy Implications
From the Shijiazhuang iron&steel co.ltd above, the following policy implications will
raise:
¾ Co-benefits for China are very significant and not to be ignored.
¾ China has huge potential CDM market.
¾ Considering co-benefits, environmental management policy and climate change
policy should be combined.
¾ Main industrial sectors, such as cement, iron&steel, paper, should be paid attention
to in the researches on co-benefits.
51
14. Area sources and their importance for population
exposure (Dispersal modelling in Taiyuan, China)
Liu, Li1/2; Larssen, Steinar1; Cao, Jie3; Zhang, Daisheng3
1. Norwegian Institution for Air Research
2. University of OSlo
3. Shanxi Environmental Information Center
The Shanxi Province is the main area for coal production in China. And the province also
produce large amount of electricity, steel, coke, liquid and gaseous coal as well as other
chemical products. The production of coal and other products have caused heavy air
pollution in the whole province, especially for cities. The cities in Shanxi are developed
based on the industry development. The recent report by SEPA included three cities in
the Shanxi Province (Linfen, Yangquan and Datong) among the ten most polluted in
China. Taiyuan is the largest city in the province, and it is the one of the three cities we
have focused on with air pollution control options to improve the air quality in Shanxi
(The two of other cities are Datong and yangquan).
Figure 1 shows the trend of air quality in Taiyuan. Both SO2 and total suspended
particles (TSP) have decreased during the last years, whereas NOx has increased during
the same time period. According to the observations in year 2000, about 75% of the days
has SO2 above upper limits. The corresponding numbers are 68% for TSP, 8% for NOx
(Class II: 0.06 mg/m3 for SO2, 0.200mg/m3 for TSP and 40mg/m3for NOx). This shows
that the SO2 and TSP caused by coal burning remained the major air pollutants in
Taiyuan in 2000, which is the same situation found in other cities.
In the emission database for Taiyuan, data from a total of 1162 companies with SO2
emissions and 1242 companies with TSP emissions were collected in the emission
templates. From all emission sources, we picked up 247 stacks from 56 companies for
SO2 and 221 stacks from 85 companies for TSP as point sources. The rest of the SO2
emissions from 1101 companies and TSP emissions from 1151 companies are distributed
52
Point Sources:
SO2: 247 stacks
(258874 ton/year)
TSP: 221 stacks
(2683061 ton/year)
Figure2: Taiyuan city administrative area, with the AirQUIS model grid, point
source locations, and total area source emissions in each of the districts.
into districts in Taiyuan according to their locations. The locations and emission amounts
are found in Figure 2.
The area sources include small scale combustion of coal and other fuels from house
heating and cooking, as well as for small scale heat and power production in small-scale
enterprises including third industry companies (restaurants, etc.). The small-scale coal
combustion represents very large emissions. In Taiyuan, the small-scale emissions of SO2
are about as large as those from all inventoried industrial emissions, while area source
TSP emissions are about one half of the industrial TSP emissions. In terms of potential
risk for exposure of the population to air pollutants, the small scale combustion is even
more important than the industrial emissions, since the small-scale sources generally have
very low emission height and is emitted close to people, while the industrial sources
generally are emitted through stacks.
In this work, we use the air quality management system that has been established for
cities in the Province, the AirQUIS system. We approached the task by identifying the
contributions of concentration from different sources. The calculated concentrations were
compared with those measurements, to validate the quality of the model. Then the
concentrations were combined with the geographical distribution of the population to find
the population exposure. Planned and potential control options were then identified that
53
might reduce the emissions effectively and substantially, and we calculated how these
affected the concentrations and exposure. The comparisons between concentration and
exposure caused by area sources and point sources are made, and we can see from the
model results that the largest improvements are found by control options applied to area
sources.
54
15. The climate impact of the household sector in China –
backyard solutions to global problems?
Kristin Aunan (CICERO)
Presentation of ongoing work in collaboration with Terje K. Berntsen, Kristin Rypdal, Hans Martin Seip (all
CICERO, Oslo, Norway); David G. Streets (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne IL, U.S.A.); Jung-Hun Woo
(University of Iowa, Iowa City IA, U.S.A); and Kirk R. Smith (University of California, Berkeley CA, U.S.A.)
If it ever enters into force, the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on climate change is likely to be
small. The USA and Australia have not ratified the Protocol, and the initial emission reduction
target was only 5.2%. The Protocol places no binding greenhouse gas restrictions on developing
countries such as China, whose CO2 emissions are projected to grow dramatically the next
decades. There is an increasing call for post-Kyoto climate treaties, whether they be global or
regional, to widen the scope to take into account the impacts that air pollutants as aerosols and
tropospheric ozone may have on climate.
There are two main reasons for this: First and
foremost, there is increasing evidence that these air pollutants play an important role in the
climate system; second, including radiative forcing components that also have adverse impacts
on human health and environment may increase participation because a focus on air pollutants
may unite the interests of developed and developing countries (Hansen et al., 2000, Holloway et
al., 2003, and Rypdal et al., 2004).
China’s approval of the Kyoto Protocol in 2002 suggests that it is considering a more active role
in the global effort to mitigate global warming. Given its many other priorities, however, China
needs to find national policies that will not only reduce its contribution to global warming in the
most cost-efficient way, but also contribute the most to economic and social development in the
country. The objective of the present study is to contribute knowledge that is helpful to Chinese
policy makers dealing with this question. We do this by addressing emissions that according to
the World Health Organisation are among the leading health risks to people in the developing
world, China included, i.e. smoke from solid fuels burned in peoples’ homes (WHO, 2002).
While air pollution in megacities has long been recognised as a major health concern in
55
developing countries, increased attention is now being paid to the perhaps less conspicuous issue
of indoor air pollution. In China, about 72% of the population lives in rural or peri-urban areas
where use of simple, low-efficiency household stoves for raw coal or unprocessed solid biomass
is common.3 This leads to very high levels of indoor air pollution, most importantly inhalable
particles – which may also be vectors for mutagenic components. This contributes to high rates
of acute and chronic respiratory diseases among the rural populations. Respiratory diseases are
the largest cause of premature death in rural China, and according to WHO (2002), 2-4% of the
disease burden measured as DALYs (disability adjusted life-years) in China are attributable to
indoor smoke from solid fuels. A disproportional share of the burden of disease falls on women
and children. They incur an exposure to particulate pollution that is considerably higher than
average for the population.
The economic structure and emission profile differ between developing countries and developed
countries. This is, of course, important to acknowledge when analysing the cost-effectiveness of
policies integrating climate change and air pollution concerns in different parts of the world.
Climate policies in developed countries typically address power production, industry and
transportation, as these are the main sources of greenhouse gases (GHG). In developed countries
these sources also represent the lion’s share of the populations’ exposure to air pollution.
Whereas power production, industry, and to a rapidly increasing degree, transportation, are
indeed important sources of emissions of both GHG and air pollutants in China, their relative
importance to public health is less than in developed countries, due to the inflated impact of
emissions from residential combustion as mentioned above. Even though the household sector is
responsible for no more than 19% of the primary energy consumption in China (biomass
included) (Sinton, 2004), it is responsible for more than 70% of China’s black carbon emissions,
about a third of its methane emissions, and more than 40% of the nmVOC emissions (which
contribute to global warming through tropospheric ozone production). The CO2 emissions from
the household sector range from 9% to 31%, depending on whether one assumes renewable
harvesting of biomass or not. Thus, policies addressing these sources may be important also in
3
Also in cities around 25% of the people still do not have access to town gas and other cleaner fuels for cooking and
heating.
56
the context of global warming, in addition to substantially improving living conditions for many
people. The question we ask in the work presented here is how important are they?
Two global models are applied to estimate the global climate impact of emissions from the
Chinese household sector. We use a simple climate model (Fuglestvedt et al., 2000) to estimate
the impact of possible emissions reductions on radiative forcing and global mean temperature.
Moreover, we draw upon ongoing research at CICERO which shows that the climate impact of
emissions may depend on their geographical location, and that emissions in China may have a
stronger impact than emissions in other parts of the world. A global, three-dimensional
photochemical tracer/transport model of the troposphere is used to model the changes in
concentration of air pollutants that have a radiative forcing (Berntsen and Isaksen, 1997).
Estimates for Chinese household sector emissions are taken from previous work on emission
inventories in Asia (Streets et al., 2003).
Whereas the radiative forcing from tropospheric ozone is reasonably well known, there still are
large uncertainties connected to the impacts of aerosols on climate. This especially applies to the
impact of black carbon. Uncertainties are due first and foremost to uncertainties in the emission
inventories and incomplete understanding of the climate response to changes in the concentration
of black carbon. Preliminary estimates from the present study indicate that for the household
sector the forcing from black carbon exceeds the combined forcing estimated for CO2 and
tropospheric ozone, and that black carbon from biomass burning is the single most dominant
contributor to radiative forcing in this sector. A very preliminary estimate is that the net positive
radiative forcing from the sector corresponds to about 2.5% of the global average radiative
forcing from greenhouse gases. The large uncertainties and preliminary nature of the results
notwithstanding, we conclude that addressing the widespread use of dirty, solid fuels in
households, especially biomass fuels, constitutes a prospective policy option for China.
References
Berntsen, T.K. and Isaksen, I.S.A., 1997. A global 3-D chemical transport model for the
troposphere; 1. Model description and CO and ozone results. Journal of Geophysical
Research, 102 , 21,239-21,280.
57
Fuglestvedt, J.S., Berntsen, T.K., Godal, O., and Skodvin, T., 2000. Climate implications of
GWP-based reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Geophysical Research Letters,
27(3), 409-412.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R., Lacis, A., Oinas, V.
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 97:9875.
Holloway, T., Fiore, A., and HAstings, M.G., 2003. Intercontinental transport of air pollution:
Will emerging science lead to a new hemispheric treaty? Environmental Science and
Technology, 37: 4535-4542.
Rypdal, K., Berntsen, T., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Torvanger, A., Aunan, K., Stordal, F., and Nygaard,
L.P., 2004. Tropospheric ozone and aerosols in climate agreements: scientific and
political challenges. Environmental Science and Policy, (Accepted).
Sinton, J., 2004. China Energy Databook v. 6.0, May 2004. Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory, Berkeley.
Streets, D., Bond, T.C., Carmichael, G.R., Fernandes, S.D., Fu, Q., He, D., Klimont, Z., Nelson,
S.M., Tsai, N.Y., Wang, M.Q., Woo, J.-H., and Yarber, K.F., 2003. An inventory of
gaseous and primary aerosol emissions in Asia in the year 2000. Journal of Geophysical
Research, 108(D21, GTE 30), 1- 23.
WHO, 2002. The world health report 2002. World Health Organisation, Geneve. (available at:
http://www.who.int/whr/2002/en/ )
58
16. A 3-regional CGE-model for China with
environmental features
He Jianwu
Development Research Centre, PRC
Abstract
This paper will introduce a 3 regional CGE-model for China which is built to analyze
environmental implications of China’s WTO accession. China is a large country composed of
31 provinces and autonomous with different natural resource, comparative advantage and
economic development. So it’s important to introduce of a degree of geographic
differentiation into the analysis of China’s issues that would be not suitable with a single
China-wide model. This technical paper presents the technical specification of three-regional
CGE model for China.
The three-region Chinese CGE model we introduce here is an extension of the two-region
Chinese CGE model that had been Development Research Centre, PRC. In the three regional
(Guangdong, Shanxi, and rest of China) CGE model we choose 2 typical provinces, the first
one is Guangdong province, the other one is Shanxi province. Guangdong province locates in
southern China, neighboring Hong Kong and Marco. As the largest economy in China, it
accounts for nearly 40 percent of national foreign trade. The development of Guangdong
since 1978 and its economic structure could be a representation of China’s coastal area.
Shanxi, the "Coal Warehouse of China", locates on the eastern part of the Loess Plateau of
North China. The output of coal in Shanxi ranks the first in China and accounts for nearly
one-fourth of the country's total. According to the UNIDO technique classification, resourcebased manufactured export account for 61.94% of the total manufactured export in 2000.
Shanxi province is an important energy base for China and energy intensive industries play
an important role in the whole economy. So it’s important to import it into the model for the
environmental analysis. The regional disaggregation in two-regional CGE model makes it
possible to assess the impact on coastal and inland areas of trade or other policy reforms.
To compile the three regional CGE model, we focus on the two issues: one is the
estimation of interregional trade, the other one is environment module in model. Different
from the two-regional model and a single China-wide model, the interregional economic
linkage is more complicated. Bilateral trade between regions is replaced with triangle trade.
The estimate of the trade flows among regions is one of the most relevant problems in
building multi-regional economic model for policy analysis especially because the most
common situation is a big lack of data on that trade. In China, interregional trade is not
covered by official statistics. So In the first part of this technique paper, we pay more
attention to the estimation of interregional trade and we will estimate the interregional trade
with indirect method because of lacking of “real data”. Based on the interregional trade
estimation and other data resource, we will build the three regional SAM for China.
Based on the economic model, we will add emission factors describing emissions of SO2,
PM10, CO2,, CH4 and N2O. Furthermore factors indicating the impact on ambient
concentration and exposure will be added. Finally we will model the impact on human health
and preferably other environmental end-points like crop damage and material damage.
59
17. Insights from an integrated systems perspective of
household fuels and health in China
H. Keith Florig
Department of Engineering and Public Policy
Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh
florig@cmu.edu
Introduction
The health impacts of residential solid fuel use in China, as in many other countries, are
horrendous. Nationwide in China, population exposures to PM-10 from residential solid
fuels far exceed those from most other major sources of particulate pollution including
neighborhood heating boilers, industrial furnaces and boilers (including power plants),
diesel and gasoline engines, and dust from wind, construction, and transportation [Sun
2000]. Population exposures to PM-10 from residential solid fuels are rivaled only by
environmental tobacco smoke. Over the past 20 years, many urban areas have moved to
greatly reduce particulate and SO2 emissions from household stoves by replacing old
housing with new multistory buildings with central heating, increasing the supply of
bottled and piped gas for cooking, and regulating the quality of coal that is locally
available. Today, more than ever, the bulk of the health burden from residential solid
fuel burning falls on the rural population.
The search for levers to alleviate the serious population health damage from household
solid fuel burning in China most often focuses on the most proximal causes of the
problem such as stove design, kitchen layout & ventilation, local availability of
alternative fuels, and time use. This presentation examines the broader social and
economic forces that influence the use of household solid fuels, particularly in rural
areas. We explore to what extent economic development alone will serve to alleviate the
solid fuels problem, absent any programs targeted specifically at the problem.
The limited progress on the solid fuels problem in rural areas reflects, in part, the subcritical level of political attention needed to implement corrective programs. Historically,
the public health sector has been the only advocate for reducing indoor air pollution
exposures from household sources. By examining the downstream impacts of health
problems caused by residential burning of solid fuels, we identify additional sectors that
would benefit from a reduction in residential solid fuel use.
Evolving upstream influences
The household solid fuels problem is influenced by a variety of dynamic economic,
demographic, legal, and institutional forces (Figure 1). It is instructive to consider the
trends in these forces and the direction they are pulling exposures from household solid
fuel use.
Rural per capita incomes in China have been rising for many years, albeit slower than
urban incomes. Rural household income can influence indoor air pollution exposures
60
through several channels. One is through fuel choice. Although one might expect
household income to have a strong effect on the use of solid fuels in the home, survey
data show that rather than substitute non-commercial solid fuels for cleaner commercial
ones, rural households tend to use additional income to purchase new energy services
such as electricity to run new appliances or coal briquettes to fuel a portable space heater
(Jiang and O’Neill 2004). Substitution to liquid and gaseous fuels for cooking and
heating occurs only above per capita incomes of several thousand RMB/yr.
Land
p olicy
A gric
p olicy
Health
care
acce ss
Nonfarm
em p loym ent
E nergy
policy
Ho use hold
we alth
Nutritio n
F am ily
size
Fue l
sup ply
He ating
d em and
C oo king
dem and
S m o king
He alth
status
Flo o r space
& ve ntilatio n
S to ve/fuel
techno log y
IAP
exposure
A dult
C OL D
C hild
A RI
Figure 1: Network of influences on the health impact of household solid fuels in
China’s rural areas.
Household wealth has many less direct influences on indoor air pollution and its health
impacts. Rising income reduces family sizes, reduces malnutrition, increases access to
health care, and increases indoor living space, all of which reduce the impacts of
household solid fuel use.
Improved awareness of the health impacts of household solid fuels might help reduce
pollutant exposures in China. Interestingly, evidence from Zimbabwe suggests that adult
family members attribute lung ailments to smoke from solids-burning household stoves
(Mika 2000), but continue to use the stoves because they have many attractive features
that alternative may not provide such as low cost, familiarity, impart a good flavor to
foods, and are easy to regulate.
Viewing the health impacts from household solid fuels in this systems context prompts
one to ask whether the most cost-effective and influential levers for alleviating the indoor
air pollution problem in China might lie in policies that promote economic growth,
increase education, and reduce tobacco use.
61
Downstream-affected sectors and coalition building
The household burning of solid fuels has impacts far beyond the home. The acute and
chronic respiratory diseases associated with indoor air pollution affect labor productivity
Farms and factories produce less when workers are either ill (DeLeire & Manning 2004)
or absent because they must care for another family member.
Air pollution also affects birth weight of infants, the risk of pneumonia in young children,
and the growth of lung capacity in adolescents. Air pollution impacts on birth weight
(Wang et al 1997) arguably affect school learning performance and lifetime productivity
(Paz et al 1995). Learning is also affected by parents and grandparents who are so
burdened with lung disease that they are unable to care for and educate their children.
Childhood pneumonia raises the childhood mortality rate, increasing incentive for parents
to have more children to assure that enough survive to contribute economically to the
family unit (Sachs et al. 2001). Lung function decrements acquired from air pollution
exposures in childhood (Gauderman et al. 2004) likely extend into adulthood and old age,
taking all of their downstream impacts with them.
Family funds spent on health care for those affected by indoor air pollution are not
available to stimulate consumer and construction sectors of the rural economy, or to
create retirement savings alleviating social burdens to care for elderly.
Greenhouse gases (including products of incomplete combustion) from household
cookstoves contribute to climate-change. Sulfur emissions from household coal use
damages crops and ecosystems.
This wide variety of impacts should be of concern to stakeholders in many sectors outside
of public health. Although the global change community has already identified the “cobenefits” of solving the solid fuels problem, other affected parties have yet to step
forward. These might include educators concerned about sick children, agriculture
officials concerned about sick farmers, social security planners concerned about how
China’s millions of rural elderly will be supported, and China’s rural industries
concerned about having productive workers. Moving forward with programs targeted
specifically at reducing solid fuel burning in rural households may depend on building a
coalition of all of these affected parties.
Risks of “Co-benefits” framing
Politically, the purpose of considering co-benefits is to strengthen the case for a proposed
course of action by identifying additional sectors that would benefit from the measure,
thus drawing allies to support it. The climate change community has argued that the
societal benefits of reducing GHG emissions from fuel burning should include not only
the moderation of climate change but also any public health savings projected to result
from reduced population exposures to air pollutants. Some in the public health
community have embraced this framing of the GHG problem, hoping to draw attention to
their own cause celebre: reducing the enormous toll of childhood pneumonia, COPD,
lung cancer, and heart disease exacted by air pollutants from solid fuel burning.
62
From a societal perspective, however, the goal of reducing the public health impacts of
household solid fuels is best served by considering how the benefits of reduced air
pollution extend to many sectors, not just the climate change community. Failure to
frame the solid fuels problem in these broadest of terms can result in potentially valuable
solutions being left off the table. For instance, if one considers only solutions to the
household air pollution problem that have climate-related co-benefits, one would ignore
options such as the use of filter masks for cooking, or keeping small children out of the
kitchen during meal preparation.
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Mar;13(3):239-50.
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Jiang, LW, O’Neill, BC. The Energy Transition in Rural China, Intl. J of Global Energy Issues,
2004; 21(1/2):2-26
Mika, L. Baseline survey of biomass energy use in three villages in Hurungwe District,
Zimbabwe: The villagers’ view on the link between biomass energy use and health, Proceedings,
Global Consultation, The Health Impact of Indoor Air Pollution and Household Energy in
Developing Countries: Setting an Agenda for Action, USAID and WHO, May 3-4, 2000,
Washington, DC.
Paz I, Gale R, Laor A, Danon YL, Stevenson DK, Seidman DS., The cognitive outcome of fullterm small for gestational age infants at late adolescence, Obstet Gynecol. 1995 Mar;85(3):452-6.
Sachs, J.D. et al., Macroeconomics and Health: Investing in Health for
Economic Development, Report of the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, World
Health Organization, 2001.
Sun, G., An Integrated Study of China’s Air Pollution Management: Effectiveness, Efficiency,
and Governance, Ph.D. dissertation, Dept. of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon
University, Pittsburgh, PA, 2000.
Wang X, Ding H, Ryan L, Xu X., Association between air pollution and low birth weight: a
community-based study, Environ Health Perspect. 1997 May;105(5):514-20.
63