AG
GREP
P
Arkan
nsas Gllobal Rice
R Ecoonomicss Progrram
Inteernatiional Rice
R Baseli
B
ine Briefin
ng Boook
Intternationa
al Rice Basseline Projjections, 22013-2023
Reporrt Prepared by
Erric J. Wailes and Eddie C
C. Chavez1
In coop
peration witth
The
T Food an
nd Agricultu
ural Policy Research In
nstitute, Un
niversity of M
Missouri
March 2014
Department
D
of Agricultu
ural Econom
mics and Agriibusiness
Division
n of Agricullture
Room
R
217, Agriculture
A
B
Building
Universsity of Arkannsas
Fayettev
ville, AR 722701
1
L.C. Cartter Chair and Distinguished
D
Professor,
P
and Senior Program
m Associate, rrespectively at the Departmennt of
Agriculturaal Economics, Division of Ag
griculture, Uniiversity of Arkaansas, Fayettevville.
P
Page1
Published
d by the Ark
kansas Globaal Rice Econ
nomics Progrram (AGRE
EP) at the Unniversity of
Arkansass, Fayettevillle, 217 Agricculture Build
ding, Departtment of Agrricultural Ecconomics annd
Agribusin
ness, Fayetteeville, AR 72701. AGRE
EP is part off the Departm
ment of Agriicultural
Economiics and Agrib
business in the
t Dale Bum
mpers Collegge of Agricuultural, Foodd, and Life
Sciences and Divisio
on of Agricullture, Univerrsity of Arkaansas.
http://ww
ww.uark.edu//ua/ricersch//
This material is based
d upon work
k supported in
i part by a ssub-grant froom the Univversity of
Missourii, Food and Agricultural
A
Policy Reseearch Institutte (FAPRI–M
MU) under a cooperativee
research agreement with
w U.S. Deepartment off Agriculturee, No. 58-0111-13-002. T
The materiall is
also baseed on work supported by
y the Arkansaas Rice Reseearch and Prromotion Booard.
Any opin
nions, findings, conclusio
ons, or recom
mmendationns expressed in this publiication are thhose
of the autthors and do
o not necessaarily reflect the
t views off the U.S. Deepartment off Agriculturee, the
Universitty of Arkanssas, Division
n of Agricultture, nor the Arkansas R
Rice Researchh and Promootion
Board.
The authors of this reeport and thee global rice projections presented inn this report were preparred
by the teaam at AGRE
EP, including
g Eric J. Waailes (ewailess@uark.edu)) and Eddie C. Chavez
(echavezz@uark.edu).
Global riice projection
ns were prep
pared with th
he help of thhe team at FA
APRI-MU, including Paat
Westhofff (westhoffp@misssoui.eedu), Scott Gerlt
G
(gerlts@
@missouri.eedu), Jarrett W
Whistance
(jwxbb@
@mail.missou
ui.edu), Juliaan Binfield (binfieldj@m
(
missouri.eduu) and Wyatt Thompson
(thompso
onw@missou
uri.edu); and
d Mike Helm
mar (mhelmaar@cabnr.unnr.edu) at thee University of
Nevada-R
Reno, and Darren
D
Hudso
on (Darren.h
hudson@ttu.eedu) at Texaas Tech Univversity.
The authors would like to thank participants
p
in a worksh op where a ppreliminary version of thhese
estimatess were review
wed in Wash
hington, DC in Decembeer 2013. Anyy errors in thhis report aree
solely thee responsibillity of the au
uthors.
©Copyrig
ight 2014 by Eric J. Wailes and Eddiie C. Chavezz. All rights reserved. Reeaders may m
make
verbatim copies of th
his documentt for non-com
mmercial puurposes by anny means, prrovided thatt this
copyright notice appears on all such
s
copies.
P
Page2
Table off Contentss
Abstract............................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Introductio
on ................................................................................................................................................................... 10
0
Rice Policy
y Overview .................................................................................................................................................... 11
Key Policy Drivers .................................................................................................................................................... 11
o Global Ricce Supply and
d Demand ............................................................................................................. 14
4
Overview of
Results of the Determin
nistic Baselinee Analysis ............................................................................................................. 17
7
d Results on Global
G
Rice Supply and Deemand ............................................................................................. 17
7
Detailed
Rice Export
E
Suppliies ............................................................................................................................................. 18
8
Rice Import
I
Deman
nd ............................................................................................................................................. 20
0
Rice Harvested
H
Area and Production ..................................................................................................................... 22
2
Rice Domestic
D
Con
nsumption ................................................................................................................................. 23
3
Rice Global
G
Stockss ................................................................................................................................................ 24
4
Rice Sup
pply and Dem
mand by Worlld Region.............................................................................................................. 25
5
Africaa ..................................................................................................................................................................... 25
5
Amerricas ................................................................................................................................................................ 26
6
Asia ......................................................................................................................................................................... 26
6
Europ
pe.................................................................................................................................................................... 27
7
Ocean
nia .................................................................................................................................................................. 27
7
World
d ..................................................................................................................................................................... 27
7
ECOW
WAS .............................................................................................................................................................. 28
8
Results of Stochastic Baaseline Analy
ysis ........................................................................................................................ 28
8
d Results of th
he Stochastic Baseline Anaalysis............................................................................................... 28
8
Detailed
Conclusion
ns and Summ
mary ............................................................................................................................................ 29
9
Estimates of
o the Determ
ministic Baseliine Analysis ......................
.
0
.................................................................................. 30
Estimates of
o the Stochastic Baseline Analysis .............................................................................................................. 69
9
Page3
Referencess ..................................................................................................................................................................... 82
2 List of Figures
F
Figure 1 Seeparation betw
ween Thai Riice and other Asian Exportt Prices after IImplementatiion of the Padddy Pledging
Program .......................................................................................................................................................................... 12
2
Figure 2 Im
mpacts of 201
11 of the Padd
dy Pledging Program
P
on Thhai Exports aand Stocks. ............................................ 12
2
Figure 3 Historical
H
and Projected Wo
orld Referencce Rice Pricess. ................................................................................ 13
3
Figure 4 U.S.
U Rice Expo
ort Prices relaative to World
d Reference P
Prices for longg-grain rice. ......................................... 14
4
Figure 5 World
W
Rice Haarvested Areaa and Yield, Historical
H
andd Projected. ................................................................ 15
5
Figure 6 World
W
Rice Su
upplies, Consu
umption, Trad
de and Endingg Stocks, Hisstorical and Prrojected .......................... 15
5
Figure 7 Peer capita rice ending stocks for selected
d countries, H
Historical and Projected. ............................................ 16
6
Figure 8 Top World Ricce Exporting Countries,
C
Hiistorical and P
Projected. .................................................................. 18
8
N Rice Exports by World Regions, Hisstorical and Prrojected..................................................................... 19
9
Figure 9 Net
Figure 10 Shares
S
of totaal rice exportss by world reg
gions, Historiical and Projeected. .................................................... 20
0
Figure 11 Rice
R imports by top countrries, Historicaal and Projectted. ............................................................................ 21
Figure 12 Net
N Rice Imports by World
d Regions, Hiistorical and P
Projected................................................................... 21
Figure 13 Shares
S
of totaal rice importss by world reg
gions, Historiical and Projeected. .................................................... 22
2
Figure 14 Top
T world ricce producing countries,
c
Hisstorical and P
Projected. ................................................................... 23
3
Figure 15 Top
T World ricce consuming
g countries, Historical
H
and Projected.................................................................. 24
4
Figure 16 Top
T countriess of rice endin
ng stocks, Hisstorical and P
Projected. ................................................................... 25
5
Figure 17 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojection of Lo
ong Grain Ricce Internationnal Referencee Price ................................................... 70
0
Figure 18 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojection of U.S. Long Graiin Rice FOB Export Price.. ............................................................ 70
0
Figure 19 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojection Com
mparisons of In
nternational R
Reference andd U.S. Long G
Grain Rice Exxport Prices.
........................................................................................................................................................................................ 71
Figure 20 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojection of Medium
M
Grain Rice Price, F
FOB Californnia. ......................................................... 71
Figure 21 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojection of U.S. Season Av
verage All Riice Farm Price. .......................................................... 72
2
Figure 22 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojection of U.S. Long Graiin Average Faarm Price. ................................................................. 72
2
Figure 23 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojection of U.S. Medium Grain
G
Averag e Farm Price.. ............................................................ 73
3
Page4
Figure 24 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojection of World
W
Rice Neet Trade. .......................................................................................... 73
3
Figure 25 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojection of World
W
Rice Area Harvested . ................................................................................ 74
4
Figure 26 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojection of World
W
Rice Miilled Productiion. ............................................................................ 74
4
Figure 27 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojection of World
W
Total Riice Consumpttion. .......................................................................... 75
5
Figure 28 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojection of World
W
Rice En
nding Stocks. ................................................................................... 75
5
Figure 29 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojections of Thailand
T
Net Rice
R Exports.. ................................................................................ 76
6
Figure 30 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojection of Th
hailand Rice Ending
E
Stockks. .............................................................................. 76
6
Figure 31 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojections of Vietnam
V
Net Rice
R Exports.. ................................................................................. 77
7
Figure 32 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojections of In
ndia Net Ricee Exports. ....................................................................................... 77
7
Figure 33 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojection of In
ndia Rice End
ding Stocks. ..................................................................................... 78
8
Figure 34 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojections of U.S.
U Net Rice Exports.......................................................................................... 78
8
Figure 35 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojections of Philippine
P
Nett Rice Importts. .............................................................................. 79
9
Figure 36 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojections of In
ndonesia Nett Rice Importss. ............................................................................... 79
9
Figure 37 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojections of People’s
P
Repu
ublic of Chinaa Net Rice Im
mports. ................................................... 80
0
Figure 38 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojections of Nigeria
N
Net Rice
R Imports. .................................................................................... 80
0
Figure 39 Stochastic
S
Pro
ojections of ECOWAS-15
E
Net Rice Impports. ........................................................................ 81 List of Tables
T
Table 1 World Rice Nett Trade by Co
ountry and Intternational Reeference Pricees, 2013-20233 ..................................... 31
pply, Utilizatiion, Total Traade and Stockks-to Use, 20113-2023. ............................................... 33
3
Table 2 World Rice Sup
n, Net Trade and
a Farm Pricces, 2013-20223. ........................................................ 33
3
Table 3 U.S. Rice Supply, Utilization
4
Table 4 Arrgentina Rice Supply, Utiliization and Net Trade, 20113-2023 ..................................................................... 34
Table 5 Au
ustralia Rice Supply,
S
Utilizzation and Neet Trade, 20133-2023 ....................................................................... 34
4
Table 6 Baangladesh Ricce Supply, Utiilization and Net
N Trade, 20013-2023 ................................................................... 35
5
Table 7 Brrazil Rice Sup
pply, Utilization and Net Trade,
T
2013-20023............................................................................ 35
5
Table 8 Brrunei Darussalam Rice Sup
pply, Utilizatiion and Net T
Trade, 2013-2023 ....................................................... 36
6
Table 9 Caambodia Rice Supply, Utiliization and Net
N Trade, 20113-2023 ..................................................................... 36
6
Page5
Table 10 Cameroon
C
Ricce Supply, Utiilization and Net
N Trade, 20013-2023 ................................................................... 37
7
Table 11 Canada
C
Rice Utilization
U
and
d Net Trade, 2013-2023 ...................................................................................... 37
7
Table 12 People’s
P
Repu
ublic of Chinaa Rice Supply
y, Utilization aand Net Tradde, 2013-20233 ...................................... 38
8
Table 13 Colombia
C
Ricee Supply, Utilization and Net
N Trade, 20013-2023.................................................................... 38
8
Table 14 Cote
C D’Ivoire Rice Supply,, Utilization and
a Net Tradee, 2013-2023 ............................................................. 39
9
Table 15 Egypt
E
Rice Su
upply, Utilizattion and Net Trade,
T
2013-22023 .......................................................................... 39
9
Table 16 EU-27
E
Rice Su
upply, Utilizaation and Net Trade, 2013--2023 ......................................................................... 40
0
Table 17 Ghana
G
Rice Su
upply, Utilizaation and Net Trade, 2013--2023 ......................................................................... 40
0
Table 18 Guinea
G
Rice Supply,
S
Utilizaation and Nett Trade, 2013 -2023 ........................................................................ 41
Table 19 China-Hong
C
Kong
K
Rice Utiilization and Net
N Trade, 20013-2023 ................................................................... 41
Table 20 In
ndia Rice Sup
pply, Utilizatiion and Net Trade,
T
2013-2 023 ........................................................................... 42
2
Table 21 In
ndonesia Ricee Supply, Utillization and Net
N Trade, 20 13-2023 .................................................................... 42
2
Table 22 Irran Rice Supp
ply, Utilizatio
on and Net Trrade, 2013-20023 ............................................................................. 43
3
Table 23 Irraq Rice Supp
ply, Utilizatio
on and Net Trrade, 2013-20023 ............................................................................. 43
3
Table 24 Jaapan Rice Sup
pply, Utilizattion and Net Trade,
T
2013-22023 .......................................................................... 44
4
Table 25 Kenya
K
Rice Su
upply, Utilizaation and Net Trade, 2013--2023 ......................................................................... 44
4
Table 26 Lao
L PDR Ricee Supply, Utillization and Net
N Trade, 20113-2023 .................................................................... 45
5
Table 27 Liberia
L
Rice Supply,
S
Utilizaation and Nett Trade, 2013 -2023 ........................................................................ 45
5
Table 28 Malaysia
M
Ricee Supply, Utilization and Net
N Trade, 20113-2023 ..................................................................... 46
6
Table 29 Mali
M Rice Sup
pply, Utilizatio
on and Net Trrade, 2013-20023 ............................................................................ 46
6
Table 30 Mexico
M
Rice Supply,
S
Utilizzation and Net Trade, 20133-2023 ....................................................................... 47
7
Table 31 Mozambique
M
Rice
R Supply, Utilization an
nd Net Trade,, 2013-2023 .............................................................. 47
7
Table 32 Myanmar
M
Ricee Supply, Utillization and Net
N Trade, 20 13-2023 .................................................................... 48
8
Table 33 Nigeria
N
Rice Supply,
S
Utilizzation and Nett Trade, 20133-2023 ....................................................................... 48
8
Table 34 Pakistan
P
Rice Supply, Utilization and Neet Trade, 2013-2023 ...................................................................... 49
9
Table 35 Philippines
P
Rice Supply, Utilization and
d Net Trade, 22013-2023 ................................................................. 49
9
Page6
Table 36 Saudi
S
Arabia Rice
R Supply, Utilization an
nd Net Trade,, 2013-2023 .............................................................. 50
0
Table 37 Senegal
S
Rice Supply,
S
Utilizzation and Neet Trade, 20133-2023 ....................................................................... 50
0
Table 38 Sierra
S
Leone Rice
R Supply, Utilization
U
an
nd Net Trade, 2013-2023 ............................................................... 51
Table 39 Singapore
S
Rice Utilization and Net Trad
de, 2013-20233 ................................................................................ 51
Table 40 South
S
Africa Rice
R Supply, Utilization
U
an
nd Net Trade, 2013-2023 ............................................................... 52
2
Table 41 South
S
Korea Rice
R Supply, Utilization
U
an
nd Net Trade, 2013-2023 ............................................................... 52
2
Table 42 Taiwan
T
Rice Supply,
S
Utilizzation and Nett Trade, 20133-2023 ....................................................................... 53
3
Table 43 Tanzania
T
Ricee Supply, Utilization and Net
N Trade, 20113-2023 ..................................................................... 53
3
Table 44 Thailand
T
Rice Supply, Utiliization and Net
N Trade, 20113-2023 ..................................................................... 54
4
Table 45 Turkey
T
Rice Supply,
S
Utilizaation and Nett Trade, 2013 -2023 ........................................................................ 54
4
Table 46 Uruguay
U
Rice Supply, Utiliization and Net Trade, 20113-2023 ..................................................................... 55
5
Table 47 Vietnam
V
Rice Supply, Utiliization and Neet Trade, 201 3-2023...................................................................... 55
5
Table 48 Africa
A
Total Rice
R Supply, Utilization
U
and
d Net Trade, 2013-2023 ................................................................ 56
6
Table 49 African
A
Aggreegate of Coun
ntries with Ind
dividual AGR
RM Models – Rice Supply,, Utilization, aand Net
Trade, 2013-2023 .......................................................................................................................................................... 56
6
A
Aggreegate of Otherr Countries Modeled
M
as a G
Group in AGR
RM – Rice Suupply, Utilizaation and Net
Table 50 African
Trade, 2013-2023 .......................................................................................................................................................... 57
7
W
Hemiisphere Rice Supply,
S
Utilizzation and Neet Trade, 20133-2023 .................................................. 57
7
Table 51 Western
Table 52 Western
W
Hemiisphere Aggreegate of Coun
ntries with Inddividual AGR
RM Models – Rice Supplyy, Utilization
and Net Trrade, 2013-20
023 ............................................................................................................................................. 58
8
Table 53 Western
W
Hemiisphere Aggreegate of Other Countries M
Modeled as a G
Group in AG
GRM – Rice Supply,
Utilization
n and Net Trad
de, 2013-2023
3 ........................................................................................................................... 58
8
Table 54 Asian
A
Rice Su
upply, Utilizattion and Net Trade,
T
2013-22023 .......................................................................... 59
9
Table 55 Asian
A
Aggregaate of Countries with Indiv
vidual Modelss in AGRM – Rice Supplyy, Utilization and Net
Trade, 2013-2023 .......................................................................................................................................................... 59
9
A
Aggregaate of Other Countries
C
Modeled as a Grroup in AGRM
M – Rice Suppply, Utilization and Net
Table 56 Asian
Trade, 2013-2023 .......................................................................................................................................................... 60
0
E
Totaal Rice Supply
y, Utilization
n and Net Tradde, 2013-2023 ........................................................... 60
0
Table 57 European
Page7
Table 58 European
E
Agg
gregate of Cou
untries Modelled Individuaally in AGRM
M – Rice Suppply, Utilizatioon and Net
Trade, 2013-2023 .......................................................................................................................................................... 61
Table 59 European
E
Agg
gregate of Oth
her Countries Modeled as a Group in AG
GRM - Rice S
Supply, Utilizzation and
Net Trade, 2013-2023 .................................................................................................................................................... 61
O
Total Rice Supply,, Utilization and
a Net Tradee, 2013-2023 ............................................................. 62
2
Table 60 Oceania
Table 61 Oceania
O
Aggreegate of Coun
ntries Modeleed individuallly in AGRM – Rice Supplyy, Utilization and Net
Trade, 2013-2023 .......................................................................................................................................................... 62
2
O
Aggreegate of Otheer Countries Modeled
M
as a G
GRM – Rice S
Supply, Utilizaation, and Neet
Table 62 Oceania
Group in AG
Trade, 2013-2023 .......................................................................................................................................................... 63
3
W
Total Rice
R Supply, Utilization
U
and
d Net Trade, 2013-2023 ................................................................ 63
3
Table 63 World
Table 64 World
W
Aggreg
gate of Countrries Modeled individually in AGRM – R
Rice Supply, Utilization annd Net Trade,
2013-2023 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 64
4
Table 65 World
W
Aggreg
gate of Other Countries
C
Mo
odeled as a Grroup in AGR
RM – Rice Suppply, Utilizatiion and Net
Trade, 2013-2023 .......................................................................................................................................................... 64
4
E
Tottal Rice Supp
ply, Utilization
n and Net Traade, 2013-20223 ......................................................... 65
5
Table 66 ECOWAS
Table 67 Projected
P
Ricee Milled Yield
ds Per Hectarre for the Worrld and Selectted Countriess, 2013-2023 ................... 66
6
Table 68 Projected
P
Per Capita
C
Rice Utilization
U
forr the World annd Selected C
Countries, 20113-2023 .......................... 67
7
Page8
Worlld Rice Baseline
B
Briefingg Book
Interna
ational Rice Baseline Prrojections, 22013-2023
Eric J. Waailes and Edddie C. Chaveez
Keyword
ds: Internatio
onal rice, basseline, policy
y, determinisstic, stochasttic, Arkansaas Global Ricce Model
JEL Codees: C02, F0
01, F14, F17,, Q17, Q18, R11
Abstracct
This outlo
ook contains updated basseline rice prrojections frrom the Arkaansas Globall Rice Econoomics
Program (AGREP)
(
for U.S. and in
nternational rice econom
mies. The purrpose of thiss document iis to present
the curren
nt state and th
he expected directions of
o the rice ecconomies in tthe world byy assessing their
potential supply
s
and demand
d
path
hs over the neext decade. T
This set of pprojections serves as a baaseline for
evaluating
g and compaaring alternattive macroecconomic, po licy, weatheer, and technnological sceenarios. The
estimates are intended
d for use by government
g
agencies annd officials, ffarmers, connsumers, agriibusinesses
and other stakeholderss who condu
uct medium- and long-teerm planningg.
The AGR
REP baseline projections are groundeed in a seriess of assumptiions about thhe general ecconomy,
agricultural policies, weather,
w
and
d technologiccal change. IIt is generallly assumed tthat current aagricultural
policies will
w be contin
nued in the United
U
Statess and other ccountries repported in thiss study. The projections
included in
i this outloo
ok are based
d on the inforrmation avaiilable as of JJanuary 20144. In light off the
volatility of the globall rice econom
my, a stochaastic analysiss is includedd in this repoort to providee a better
understanding of the probable
p
disttribution of future
f
outcoomes. The stoochastic estiimates establlish likely
upper and
d lower boun
nds for selectted variabless.
We ackno
owledge and appreciate the
t collaboraation with thhe team at FA
APRI-MU, bbased at the U
University
of Missou
uri in Columb
bia, but we take
t
full resp
ponsibility fo
for any remaiining errors in this document.
Page9
Introduction
This outlo
ook is not a set
s of predicttions but rath
her a framew
work to pressent a baselinne of the likeely direction
n
of key varriables in thee global rice economy an
nd the degreee of variabillity on some of the key vvariables.
Determiniistic and stocchastic baselline estimatees presented in this reporrt are generaated using thhe Arkansas
Global Rice Model (A
AGRM). AG
GRM is a multi-country/rregional statiistical simullation and ecconometric
framework
k developed
d and maintaiined by the Arkansas
A
Gllobal Rice E
Economics Prrogram (AG
GREP) with
the Deparrtment of Ag
gricultural Ecconomics an
nd Agribusinness at the Unniversity of Arkansas, F
Fayetteville.
The AGR
RM has beneffited from working
w
closeely with the Food and Aggricultural P
Policy Reseaarch Institutee
(FAPRI) based
b
at the University of
o Missouri, Columbia w
which maintaains U.S. agrricultural andd other
commoditty models. They
T
providee data on U.S
S. crop pricees and net retturn projectiions which aare
transmitteed into counttry models as applicable.
In particullar, prices an
nd net return
ns for corn, soybeans,
s
annd wheat are relevant connsidering thaat these
commoditties are substitute crops for
f rice in th
he U.S. and oother countriies. For exam
mple, rice arrea competess
with a num
mber of crop
ps including soybeans, co
orn, and cottton in rice-pproducing staates in the U
U.S.
(Arkansass, Louisiana,, Missouri, Mississippi,
M
Texas,
T
and C
California). IIn the Peoplee’s Republicc of China
(PRC), ricce competes with corn in
n the provincces of Guanggxi, Heilongj
gjiang, Jilin, and Liaoninng; with
wheat in the
t province of Jiangsu; and with both corn and w
wheat in thee provinces oof Anhui, Chhongqing,
Guizhou, Hubei, Ning
gxia, Sichuan
n, and Yunnaan. In India, rice compettes with wheeat particularrly in the
northern states
s
(Carriq
quiry et al., 2012;
2
Wailess and Chaveez, 2013).
The historrical rice datta is obtained
d from the Production,
P
S
Supply, and D
Distribution (PS&D) onlline databasee
of the USD
DA-FAS and
d USDA-ER
RS Rice Outllook as of Jaanuary 2014.. The AGRM
M rice markeeting years
by country
y generally follow
f
the USDA
U
system
m. For exampple, the yearr 2013 or maarketing yearr 2013/14 in
n
the modell refers to Jan
nuary 2014–
–December 2014
2
for Thaailand, Vietnnam, and Inddonesia; Octoober 2013Septembeer 2014 for In
ndia; July 20
013-June 2014 for the Phhilippines; aand April 20113-March 20014 for
South Am
merican countries. See htttp://www.fass.usda.gov/ppsdonline/psddAvailabilityy.aspx for deetails. As
such, the annual
a
cumu
ulative grow
wth rates as well
w as the tootal growth nnumbers pressented in this document
are estimaated from thee marketing year 2012/13 and cover the 11-yearr period 20122-2023.
d
d into 46 of the
t major ricce producingg, consumingg and tradingg rice
The globaal model is disaggregated
countries//regions; and
d the rest-of--the-world iss grouped intto five regioonal aggregattions: Africaa, the
Americas,, Asia, Europ
pe, and Oceaania. With riice as an asccendant foodd staple in Suub-Sahara A
Africa, we
provide prrojections off selected West
W African countries
c
annd for the EC
COWAS (thee Economic Community
of West African
A
States). Each cou
untry or regio
onal model iincludes a suupply sector (harvested aarea and
yields), a demand secttor (per capiita use), with
h trade, stockks and price linkage equuations. Net gglobal rice
trade for long
l
grain an
nd medium grain
g
solves for the two w
world refereence prices, llong grain annd medium
grain.
Page10
The determ
ministic baseeline assumees the follow
wing: a continnuation of eexisting policcies; Global Insight
projection
ns for macroeeconomic vaariables; no new
n WTO D
Doha Round trade reform
ms; and average weather
conditionss. Growth raates in rice yiields in seleccted countriees are made relatively sttronger than previous
baselines in recognitio
on of potentiial positive impacts
i
from
m the Globall Rice Sciencce Partnership (GRiSP)
R&D fund
ding on glob
bal rice produ
uctivity.
The stoch
hastic baselin
ne provides a range of prrobable outcoomes (confidence intervvals), as oppoosed to the
determinisstic analysis which geneerates averag
ge point estim
mates. Stochhastic estimaates are usefuul given the
fact that underlying
u
asssumptions in
i the determ
ministic baseeline usually do not holdd true in realiity, i.e.,
actual marrket outcomes deviate frrom average estimates. S
Stochastic annalysis proviides informaation on risk
and uncerrtainty which
h is an imporrtant charactteristic of thee internationnal rice econnomy.
The stoch
hastic framew
work is generated using multivariate
m
empirical ddistributions (MVE) of thhe yield
variable for
fo each of th
he 51 countriies and regio
ons in the moodel, as welll as for each of the six riiceproducing
g states in thee U.S. Yield
d is used becaause it is thee variable thaat not only vvaries by yeaar and by
country bu
ut it is also very
v
sensitiv
ve to changess in weather conditions aand water avvailability—
—factors that
are criticaal for rice pro
oduction. Th
he MVE takee into accounnt serial andd geographicaal covariancce. A total off
200 rando
om draws aree implemented using a 28-year empiirical distribuution of histtorical yieldss generated
using the software Sim
mulation & Econometric
E
cs to Analyzee Risk (Simeetar) developped by Richardson et
al.(2008).
Rice Pollicy Overv
view
The rice sector
s
policy
y assumption
ns by country
y are documeented in Apppendix Tablee 1 of the puublication by
y
Wailes an
nd Chavez (2
2012). Curren
nt domestic and trade poolicies (e.g. ttariff rates) aare maintainned over the
baseline.
KeyPoliicyDriverrs

For the paast two yearss the internattional rice market
m
has beeen impactedd and dominnated by two key events.
The first is
i India’s offficial lifting of its ban on
n non-basmaati rice exporrts as of September 20111. The
second is Thailand’s implementat
i
tion in Octob
ber 2011 of iits paddy pleedging progrram (PPP), a price-floor
support po
olicy for Thaai farmers. The
T PPP prov
vides price ssupports to thhe rice produucers whichh are as much
h
as 50% hiigher than prrevailing maarket prices (Wailes
(
and Chavez, 20113). This ressulted in a seeparation
between Thailand’s
T
an
nd other Asiian rice expo
ort prices unttil early 2014 (Figure 1).
Page11
Figure 1 Sep
paration between Thai Rice and other Asiaan Export Pricees after Implem
mentation of tthe Paddy Pled
dging Program
m 
Th
he major con
nsequence off the PPP is that
t Thailandd lost leaderrship in globbal rice tradee and its rice
ex
xports plungeed 40% in 20
011; and its rice
r stockpilles doubled ((Figure 2). S
Since May 2013 the Thai
10
00% B price has substanttially declineed from $61 5 per mt to $$424 per mt,, a 31% dropp.
Figure 2 Impacts of 2011 o
of the Paddy P
Pledging Progrram on Thai Exxports and Stoccks.

Another consequence
c
of this situaation is that the
t prevailinng high Thai rice price haas limited itss usefulness
as the inteernational reference long
g-grain rice price.
p
As suuch, the equillibrium rice internationaal reference
Page12
prices currrently generrated by the AGRM
A
(Fig
gure 3) are clloser to the pprevailing exxport prices of Vietnam
and India (Wailes and
d Chavez, 20
013). This is supported bby the fact thhat the globall rice exportt market is
now domiinated by Ind
dia and Vietn
nam, with reelatively deppendable suppplies also cooming from Pakistan,
Cambodiaa and Myanm
mar. Our pro
ojection how
wever suggestts that as Thhailand abanddons the govvernment
storage element of thee PPP, the Th
hai 100%B price
p
will ressume its useeful role as a world reference price
for long grain
g
rice.
Figure 3 Hisstorical and Pro
ojected World
d Reference Ricce Prices. 
U.S. export prices, howeveer, remain ab
bnormally hhigh---with m
margins to A
Asian prices aas high as
$2
200 per mt (F
Figure 4). By
B historical standards, thhis level is nnot likely to bbe sustainabble as Asian
ricce exports will be expectted to be imp
ported into thhe U.S. Oveer the projecttion period, w
while globall
ricce prices gro
ow slightly, the
t high U.S. rice exportt prices are eexpected to ddecline, as thhe wide U.S..
priice margin over
o
Asian prices narrow
ws to a more historically--reasonable llevel of abouut $80 by
thee end of the projection period
p
(Tablee 1). U.S. avverage farm prices are prrojected to ffollow the
deeclining trend
d (Table 3).

Th
here are seveeral factors th
hat can potentially drivee the high U..S. prices downward, going forward..
Th
hese include persistent riice surplusess in India andd Thailand; significant iinvestment inn production
n
an
nd processing
g capacity on
n Mekong Delta
D
in Vietnnam, Camboodia and Myyanmar; and pproductivity
y
gaains from hyb
brids and GR
RiSP researcch, positivelyy impacting Asian and A
African rice eeconomies;
inccreasing com
mpetition witth the U.S. based
b
on quaality with com
mpetitors; annd strong treends in
dieetary diversiification awaay from rice primarily inn Asian counntries.
Page13
Figure 4 U.SS. Rice Export P
Prices relative to World Refe
erence Prices ffor long‐grain rice.
Overvieew of Glob
bal Rice Su
upply and Demand
Rice is thee most important food crrop of the deeveloping woorld and the staple food of more thann half of the
world's po
opulation, acccounting forr more than 20% of dailyy caloric reqquirement (IR
RRI, 2013). The
internation
nal rice pricees are highly
y volatile due to a numbeer of reasonss. Rice has pprice inelastiic supply and
d
demand th
hroughout much
m
of Asia,, where it is the dominannt food staplle.
While ricee is the prim
mary staple fo
or half the world’s
w
popullation, it is thhinly-traded. Only aboutt 7% of rice
production
n is traded as
a opposed to
o 10 percent for coarse ggrains and 166 percent forr wheat (Waiiles and
Chavez, 2012).
2
The in
nternational rice
r trade is highly conccentrated witth five dominnant players (Thailand,
India, Vietnam, Pakisttan, and the U.S.) accoun
nting for 90%
% of global net trade (Taable 1).
A combin
nation of slow
w growth in rice consum
mption and inncreased outpput driven by the use off higheryielding varieties
v
and hybrids and
d other impro
oved producttion technologies—in linne with morre focused
self-sufficciency prograams of majo
or consuming
g countries---are expectedd to have a ddampening eeffect on
internation
nal rice pricees over the next
n decade. Over the baaseline periood, as growthh in productiion remains
in close taandem with gains
g
in conssumption, prrices remainn relatively sttable with loong grain ricce
internation
nal referencee price remaaining within
n the range $$400-$412 peer mt (Tablee 1 and Figurre 3).
Over the baseline
b
projjection perio
od, world rice output groows at 1.01%
% per year, reeaching 525.0 million
metric ton
ns (mmt) in 2023
2
with 0..80% coming
g from yieldd improvemeent and 0.21%
% coming frrom growth
Page14
in area harvested (Figure 5). Driveen solely by population growth, globbal rice conssumption gaiins 1.02%
m in 2023—
—with popuulation growiing at 1.03%
% but averagee world rice
annually, reaching neaarly 522.0 mmt
ng very sligh
htly by 0.01%
% (Table 2 aand Figure 66).
per capitaa use declinin
Figure 5 Wo
orld Rice Harve
ested Area and
d Yield, Historiical and Projeccted. Figure 6 Wo
orld Rice Supplies, Consumption, Trade an
nd Ending Stoc ks, Historical aand Projected Page15
While ind
dustry and go
overnment reeports typicaally present oonly the totaal rice stockss in particulaar countries,
it is equally interesting
g to examinee the corresp
ponding endiing stocks on a per capitta basis in orrder to have
a more meeaningful po
opulation-weeighted comp
parison. Figuure 7 depictss comparativve paths of pper capita
stocks of selected
s
majjor rice expo
orting and im
mporting couuntries. Withh high levels of producer support, perr
capita stocck levels inccrease in both
h Thailand and
a People’ss Republic off China (PRC
C) over the 22013-2023
projected years.
Figure 7 Perr capita rice en
nding stocks fo
or selected cou
untries, Historiical and Projeccted.
Note that while there is a sharp bu
uild-up of tottal rice stockks in Thailannd and a connsiderable acccumulation
in PRC, only Thailand
d exhibits a dramatic
d
spiike in per cappita stock reelative to its own historiccal path. On
a per capita basis, PRC
C’s stock accumulation is
i relatively gradual andd steady, andd still consisttent with its
historical norm. Vietn
nam is projeccted to have a slight incrrease but relaatively stablee level of peer capita rice
stocks. Likewise, Indiia’s per capitta stock leveel is historicaally consisteent; and is prrojected to reemain stable.
Interesting
gly, the per capita
c
stock levels for th
he Philippinees and Indonnesia have deeclined in reccent years
and are prrojected to co
ontinue at lo
ower levels over
o
the projjection periood. The stockk declines inn the
Philippinees and Indon
nesia could be
b related to recent attem
mpts to limit rice importss as both couuntries push
for much publicized
p
riice self-suffi
ficiency. Only
y time will ttell if reductiions in endinng stock relaative to
historicallly safe levelss is a pruden
nt course of action.
a
Global net trade grow
ws at 1.94% per
p year, reacching nearlyy 39.0 mmt bby 2023. Intternational loong grain
rice pricess are projected to increasse only sligh
htly by 0.21%
% annually, as major ricee consumingg countries
are expectted to focus increasingly
y on self-suffficiency by iincreasing thhe use of higgher yieldingg hybrids and
d
Page16
other imprroved produ
uction techno
ologies. Med
dium grain riice prices aree projected tto remain strronger
relative to
o long grain prices,
p
with an annual grrowth of 0.776% per yearr (Table 1).
Results of the Detterministicc Baseline Analysis

Projections generated from
m the determ
ministic analyysis by counttry and by reegion for thee period
20
013-2023 aree presented in
n Tables 1 th
hru 56. To seerve as convvenient referrence, a geneeral list of
thee tables with
h description
n is included below:

Taable 1 is a su
ummary of th
he net trade by
b country aand international rice priices (internattional long
graain referencee price, U.S.. long grain export
e
price, and the U.S
S. medium ggrain export price which
serrves as the in
nternational reference prrice for meddium grain).

Taable 2 presen
nts the summ
mary of the global
g
rice suupply and deemand.

Taables 3 thru 47
4 are the baasic supply and
a demand projections (production,, consumptioon, stocks,
an
nd net trade),, by country..

Taables 48 thru
u 65 present the
t world regional (Afriica, Asia, Weestern Hemiisphere, Euroope, and
Occeania) rice supply
s
and demand
d
projections withh a sub-regioonal aggregaate for countrries of each
reg
gion that aree modeled in
ndividually in
n AGRM, annd another suub-regional aggregate foor countries
off each region
n that are modeled as a grroup in AGR
RM.

Taable 66 preseents the rice supply and demand
d
projjections for E
ECOWAS, ppresented seeparately to
hig
ghlight the in
ncreasing im
mportance off the region tto the globall rice econom
my.

Taable 67 summ
marizes the rice
r average yield per heectare by couuntry.

Taable 68 preseents the rice average per capita use bby country.
Detailed
dResultsonGloballRiceSup
pplyandD
Demand

Ov
ver the projeection period
d, India and PRC
P
are proj
ojected to acccount for 26% of total gllobal
po
opulation gro
owth, with a combined sh
hare in worlld populationn of 37% in 2012 and 355% by 2023.
By
y sheer magn
nitude, the tw
wo countriess remain the largest globbal rice economies with ccombined
share of 45% of
o world area harvested, 52% of totaal milled ricee productionn, 50% of tottal rice
co
onsumption, and 63% of world rice ending
e
stockss.

In comparison
n, the combin
ned global sh
hares of the nnext six larggest rice couuntries of Thaailand,
Ind
donesia, Ban
ngladesh, Viietnam, the Philippines
P
aand Myanmaar are 34% ffor area harvested, 30%
in production, and 27% in consumptio
on over the s ame period. Thailand, w
with its recennt PPPup in stocks, account for 17% of globbal stocks.
rellated build-u
Page17
RiceExp
portSuppllies

Fiigure 8 show
ws the world’s top countrry rice exporrters over thhe projectionn period. Desspite
Th
hailand’s verry unpopularr and controv
versial paddy
dy pledging pprogram, it is projected tto resume itss
strrong presencce in the glob
bal rice mark
ket over the next ten yeaars. Reports indicate thaat Thailand iss
inccreasing its efforts
e
on neegotiating go
overnment-too-governmennt rice deals to liquidate their
ex
xcessive rice stockpile (U
USDA-FAS, 2013-2014)).

While
W
the Thaai governmen
nt is expected to incur suubstantial finnancial lossees in the shorrt-term as it
ships high-pricced rice onto
o the global market
m
at coompetitively low prices, the country is expected
to recoup its global positio
on as the top rice exporteer over the bbaseline periood--given itss good
inffrastructural resources an
nd concerted
d focus on deeveloping annd maintainiing a strong presence in
thee branded hiigh quality riice. The pop
pularity of thhe country’s “Thai Hom Mali”- branded Jasminee
ricce which is fragrant
f
long
g grain rice, is
i strongly ppreferred by consumers iin many nations.
Figure 8 Top
p World Rice EExporting Coun
ntries, Historiccal and Projectted.
India becaame the top rice
r exporterr in 2011/12 and 2012/1 3 marketingg years, and iis projected tto remain a
leading ricce exporter in
i 2013/14, with
w total sh
hipments thesse years excceeding 10 m
mmt. Howevver, India’s
exports arre projected to
t decline stteadily from this high levvel to about 8.0 mmt by 2023, as thee country
implemen
nts its subsidized domesttic rice consu
umption proggram and leggislated in thhe National Food
Security Bill
B which was
w signed in
nto law on Seeptember 12, 2013 (USD
DA-FAS, 2013b). It creaates an
entitlemen
nt for eligiblee beneficiariees to receive 5 kilograms oof rice, wheaat or coarse ggrain (millet) at highly
Page18
subsidized
d prices. Thiss reportedly covers
c
50% of
o the urban aand 75% of th
the rural popuulations whicch translate
to about 82
20 million peeople (USDA
A-FAS, 2014
4).
India’s neet exports in 2012/13 werre 10.9 mmtt, followed bby Vietnam w
with 7.1 mm
mt, and Thailaand with 6.1
1
mmt. Viettnam’s rice exports
e
are projected
p
to catch
c
up witth India’s levvel by 2022//23 at net expports of 8.0
mmt. Thaailand, on the other hand
d, is projected to equal Inndia’s exporrts by 2018/119 at about 88.7 mmt; and
d
resume ricce export leaadership therreafter (Tablle 1). Rice eexports of thhe U.S. remaiin relativelyy flat around
2.3 mmt over
o
most off the projection period, given only sliight supply ggrowth in booth area and average
yields and
d increasing competition
n from Asian
n exporters (T
Table 3). Cambodiaa and Myanm
mar are two countries wiith strong pootential as ricce exporters in the yearss to come,
both with rice exportss projected to
o expand steadily as prodduction conttinues to excceed consum
mption.
orts are projeected to grow
w at 9.2% annnually, reachhing 2.4 mm
mt in 2023, aas its total
Cambodiaa’s rice expo
production
n gains 3.8%
% per year while
w
its total consumptioon grows sloower at 1.9%
%. Rice expoorts of
Myanmar, on the otheer hand, are projected
p
to grow at 6.4%
% per year, rreaching 1.33 mmt in 20223, with its
total produ
uction and consumption
c
n growing at 1.6% and 1..2% per yearr, respectivelly.
Global net rice exportts totaled 31..7 mmt in 20
012 and is prrojected to ggrow by a tottal of 7.1 mm
mt over the
baseline period
p
(2012-2023), or ab
bout 1.9% an
nnually, of w
which nearlyy 70% is acccounted for bby Thailand,
as is expands exports and regains dominance in global ricce trade. By w
world regionns, the top riice exporterss
are shown
n in Figure 9 and 10. ASEAN is a su
ub-regional ggroup of Souutheast Asiann countries inncluding
Brunei Daarasullam, Cambodia,
C
In
ndonesia, Lao
o PDR, Malaaysia, Myannmar, Philipppines, Singappore,
Thailand, and Vietnam
m.
Figure 9 Net Rice Exports by World Reggions, Historicaal and Projecteed. Page19
In terms off share, the ASEAN region
n is expect to expand its shhare from 40%
% in recent yeears to more thhan 50% by
2023.
Figure 10 Sh
hares of total rrice exports byy world region
ns, Historical an
nd Projected.
RiceImp
portDema
and

World
W
rice imp
ports are dom
minated by 10
1 countries that accounnt for nearly 50% of totall imports
ov
ver the baseliine period. They
T
are Nig
geria, PRC, IIran, Indonessia, Iraq, Sauudi Arabia, B
Bangladesh,
Co
ote d’Ivoire, the Philippiines, and Maalaysia. Figuure 11 showss the world’ss top countryy rice
im
mporters.
In terms of
o growth of rice importss, 47% is pro
ojected from
m two major A
Asian imporrting countries of
Bangladessh and Indon
nesia combin
ned, 18% fro
om the 15-m
member ECO
OWAS (Econnomic Comm
munity of
2
West Afriican States) , and 14% frrom the Mid
ddle East. Thhese countries/regions account for a total of
79% sharee in expansio
on of global net imports.. The U.S. tootal rice impports are projjected to increase by 245
5
thousand mt
m (or 7.6 mil.
m cwt), equ
uivalent to a growth of 2 .4% per yeaar.
2
ECOWAS
S15-member co
ountries include Cote D’Ivoirre, Ghana, Guinnea, Liberia, M
Mali, Nigeria, S
Senegal, Sierraa Leone, Benin,
Burkina-Fasso, Gambia, Gu
uinea-Bissau, Niger,
N
Togo, an
nd Cabo Verdee.
Page20
Figure 11 Riice imports byy top countriess, Historical and Projected. 
By
y world regio
ons, the top rice importeers are shownn in Figures 12 and 13.
Figure 12 Net Rice Importts by World Re
egions, Historiccal and Projectted. Page21
Figure 13 Sh
hares of total rrice imports byy world region
ns, Historical and Projected.
RiceHarrvestedArreaandPrroduction

Th
he global ricee major prod
ducers are sh
hown in Figuure 14. Whille the global rice harvestted area will
gro
ow by nearly
y 5.0 million
n hectares on
n a net basis over the basseline periodd, some notaable changes
aree projected for
f a numberr of countries. There is a total expannsion of 4.0 million hecttares of rice
in the five cou
untries of Nig
geria, India, Pakistan, Baangladesh, aand Myanmaar combined; and a total
ex
xpansion of 2.0
2 million hectares
h
in ECOWAS. H
However, the rice area off the PRC is pprojected to
deecline by neaarly 1.0 milliion hectares due to a shifft to substituute crops andd irrigation cconstraints.

Th
he U.S. rice area
a is projected to remaain relativelyy flat over thhe projectionn period at arround 1.1
miillion hectarees (or 2.7 miillion acres) due to waterr constraintss and an incrreasingly com
mpetitive
maarket environ
nment. Otheer constraintts to potentiaal rice expannsion includee competing uses of
lim
mited land an
nd water; farrm demograp
phics—withh farmers gettting older annd labor movving from
farrm to cities; uncertain caalamities duee climate chaange; changing consumeer tastes tow
wards healthy
y
foo
ods; and emerging envirronmental isssues on rice carbon footp
tprint.

Th
he global millled rice outp
put is projeccted to grow by a total off 51.1 mmt oover the periiod 201220
023. By volu
ume, about 27%
2
of the expected grow
wth over thee same periood will come from India;
neearly 44% fro
om the seven
n countries of
o PRC, Banngladesh, Inddonesia, Cam
mbodia, Myaanmar, the
Ph
hilippines an
nd Vietnam combined;
c
an
nd 11% from
m ECOWAS
S. Total U.S. rice producttion is
pro
ojected to in
ncrease by ab
bout 573 tho
ousand mt (oor 17.3 mil. ccwt) over thee same periood with slight
gaains in area and
a yields.
Page22
Figure 14 To
op world rice p
producing countries, Historiccal and Projectted.
RiceDom
mesticCon
nsumption
n

Riice consumption is driven by incomee, populationn, and other demographic variables. Rising
inccomes damp
pen rice dem
mand in somee Asian counntries where rice is consiidered an infferior good.
Deemographic trends also weaken
w
rice demand as aaging populaations and inncreasing health
co
onsciousness shift prefereences away from
f
carbohhydrates and towards prootein-based ddiets.

Ov
ver the projeection period
d, global ricee consumptioon will grow
w by 56.0 mm
mt (net)—wiith nearly
31% accounted for by Indiia; about 30%
% by the fivve countries oof Bangladesh, Indonesiia, PRC, the
Ph
hilippines, an
nd Vietnam combined;
c
and
a 11% by E
ECOWAS. T
The top worrld rice consuuming
co
ountries are shown
s
in Fig
gure 15.

While
W
PRC’s rice
r per capiita use contin
nues to decliine at 0.30%
% per year, thhe country’s population
gro
ows at 0.44%
% annually--- resulting in
n net growth in total ricee consumptioon of 0.14% annually,
reaaching 147.4
4 mmt in 202
23. U.S. totaal rice consuumption incrreases by neaarly 847 thouusand mt (orr
15
5.1 mil. cwt) over the sam
me period, with
w annual ggrowth rates of 1.26% inn per capita uuse and
0.7
76% in popu
ulation.
Page23
op World rice consuming cou
untries, Historrical and Projeected. Figure 15 To
RiceGlo
obalStockss

Gllobal rice sto
ocks expand by 39 mmt over the proj
ojection periood, from 1077 mmt in 20112 to 146
mm
mt in 2023, with
w the stoccks-to-use raatio increasinng from 0.233 to 0.28 oveer the same pperiod.

wo countriess account forr over 90% of
o this rice gllobal stock bbuild-up, witth PRC accoounting for
Tw
58
8%, as the co
ountry takes advantage of
o low globall prices and maintains itss strong ricee purchases;
an
nd Thailand, accounting for
f 35%, as the country continues prroducer subssidies and faaces
ch
hallenges in releasing
r
its excessive riice stockpilee onto the gloobal market. See Figure 16 for the
wo
orld’s leaderrs in rice stocckholdings.
Page24
op countries o
of rice ending sstocks, Historiccal and Projectted. Figure 16 To
RiceSup
pplyandD
Demandb
byWorldR
Region

Th
he summary results for th
he five world
d regions aree presented iin Tables 488-64. Three ttables are
asssociated with
h each regio
on. The first one is the tootal for the reegion, whichh is the sum of
ind
dividually-m
modeled coun
ntries in the region and tthe other couuntries in thee region moddeled as a
gro
oup. Thus, th
he sum of th
he five region
ns covers thee entire world rice econoomy.

A more detaileed look at th
he regional prrojections prrovides a better understaanding of thee
d
and the relative importanc e of each reggion to the gglobal rice ecconomy.
geeographical dynamics
Africa

Taable 48 show
ws that Africaa’s total ricee output is prrojected to ggrow by 3.5%
% per year, ddriven by
bo
oth growth in
n area (1.8%) and yields (1.6%). Thiis expected pproductivity improvemennt is
sup
pported by availability
a
of
o increased research funnding from institutions aand NGOs, a more
foccused effortss by the Afriica Rice Cen
nter and the IInternationaal Rice Reseaarch Institutee (IRRI),
an
nd a possible expanded distribution
d
and
a adoptionn of improved rice varietties like the rrecentlydeeveloped New
w Rice for Africa
A
(NERIICA) cultivaars. The regiion’s total ricce consumpttion grows
Page25
by
y 3.0% per yeear as population grows by 2.3% andd per capita use by 0.8%
% annually. T
This
3
co
onsumption is supported by 2.8% gro
owth in real pper capita inncome .

Taable 49 preseents the results for the grroup of indivvidually-moddeled Africaan countries in AGRM.
Th
his group is expected
e
to grow
g
total riice productioon by 3.7% pper year, as area and yieelds grow by
2.2
2% and 1.5%
%, respectiveely. Total consumption oof this groupp gains 3.1%
% annually, drriven by
2.2
2% growth in population
n, 0.9% grow
wth in per caapita use, andd 2.9% grow
wth in real peer capita
inccome.

Taable 50 show
ws that the “O
Other Africaa” region (or the rest of A
African counntries that aree modeled
as a group) exp
pands its rice output by 2.5% per yeear, with 0.6%
% coming frrom growth iin area and
1.9
9% from yieeld. Total con
nsumption of
o this group expands at 22.8% per year, of whichh 2.3%
co
omes from po
opulation gro
owth and 0.5
5% from perr capita use ggain, supporrted by 2.6%
% gain in reall
peer capita inco
ome.
America
as

To
otal rice prod
duction of th
he Western Hemisphere
H
((Table 51) ggrows at 1.2%
% per year aall of which
co
omes from 0.4% yield growth and areea gain of 0..8% annuallyy. Total conssumption inccreases at
1.5
5% annually
y, a combined effect of 0.9%
0
populattion growth and 0.6% gaain in per cappita use with
h
1.8
8% growth in real per caapita incomee.

Th
he group of individuallyi
-modeled Western
W
Hemiisphere counntries (Tablee 52) is projeected to grow
w
tottal rice outpu
ut slightly by
y 1.0% per year,
y
as area gains 0.4% and yields ggrow by 0.6%
%. Total ricee
co
onsumption of
o this group
p gains 1.3% annually, w
with 0.8% contributed byy population growth and
0.5
5% by per caapita use as real
r per capiita income ggains 2.1% per year.

To
otal rice prod
duction of th
he “Other Weestern Hemiisphere” regiion modeledd as a group (Table 53)
inccreases by 1.6% per yearr, with 0.2%
% coming froom area expaansion and 1.4% from yiield gain.
To
otal consump
ption of this group grows at 1.8% peer year, of whhich 1.2% comes from ppopulation
gro
owth and 0.6
6% from perr capita use. Real per cappita income contracts byy 0.8% annuaally.
Asia

To
otal rice prod
duction of Asia
A (Table 54) increases by 0.9% peer year, as yieeld grows byy 0.8%
an
nnually and area
a increasees marginally
y (0.1%). Thhe growth inn total Asian consumption of 0.8%
peer year comes solely from
m population
n growth, as per capita uuse declines bby nearly 0.11%
an
nnually. Ricee is an inferio
or good in most
m Asian coountries andd the relativeely strong proojected
gro
owth of 4.0%
% in real perr capita incom
me has damppening effecct on rice connsumption.
3
Real per caapita income iss computed by dividing total real gross dom
mestic product bby population..
Page26

Sim
milarly, the group of ind
dividually-m
modeled Asiaan countries (Table 55) is projected tto grow totall
ricce production
n by 0.9% an
nnually, as yields
y
increaase by 0.8% and area harrvested gainss slightly by
0.1
1%. Total ricce consumpttion of this group
g
grows by 0.8% annnually, all coontributed by population
n
gro
owth as per capita use declines marg
ginally with 4.1% annuaal gain in reaal per capita income.

Th
he net growth
h of total ricce output of the
t “Other A
Asia” region modeled as a group (Taable 56) is
0.7
7% annually
y, with area growing
g
by 0.3%
0
and yieeld gaining 00.4% per yeaar. Total connsumption off
thiis group grow
ws at 1.2% per
p year, of which
w
1.4% comes from
m population growth as pper capita usee
deeclines by 0.2
2% and real per capita in
ncome grow s at 2.8% whhich is relatiively slower than that off
thee group of modeled
m
Asiaa countries.
Europe

Th
he total rice production
p
of
o Europe (T
Table 57) groows at 1.6% per year of w
which 1.2% comes from
m
yieeld growth and
a 0.4% fro
om a slight gain in area. T
Total consum
mption increeases slightlyy at 0.6%,
solely from gaain in per cap
pita use, as population
p
grrowth is flatt. Real per caapita incomee is up 2.0%
peer year.

Th
he group of individuallyi
-modeled Eu
uropean counntries (Tablee 58) is projeected to grow
w total rice
ou
utput slightly
y by 1.9% peer year, as arrea increasess by 0.6% annd yields groow by 1.3% pper year.
To
otal consump
ption of this group gains 0.5% annuaally, with poopulation andd per capita uuse
accounting forr 0.2% and 0.3%,
0
respectively. Real per capita inncome of thiis group grow
ws at 1.6%
peer year.

To
otal rice prod
duction of th
he “Other Eu
urope” regionn modeled aas a group (T
Table 59) groows slightly
by
y 0.2% per yeear, as yield grows by 0..4% and yielld contracts by 0.2%. Coonsumption of this group
p
gro
ows by 1.3%
% annually, solely
s
from per
p capita usse growth. T
The real per ccapita incom
me of this
gro
oup grows strongly at 3..8% per yearr.
Oceania
a

Taables 60 thru
u 62 show the results for Oceania whhich mainly cconsists of A
Australia. Tootal rice
pro
oduction exp
pands by 0.6
6% per year, solely from
m gain in areaa harvested. Total consuumption
gro
ows nearly 2.0%
2
annually attributed
d to 1.3% poppulation groowth and 0.6% per capitaa use gain.
Reeal per capitaa income gro
ows at 1.5% annually.
World

Taables 63 thru
u 65 present the
t sum of th
he world reggions.
Page27
ECOWAS
S

Production is projected
p
to grow by 5.2
2% per annum
m with equaal contributioons from harrvested area
an
nd yield imprrovements (T
Table 66). Consumption
C
n, fueled by ppopulation aand income ggrowth,
inccreases by 3.2% annually; and net im
mports expannd by 1.38%
% per year.
Resultts of Sto
ochastic Baseline Analyysis
Detailed
dResultsoftheSto
ochasticB
BaselineAn
nalysis
The detailled results off the stochasstic analyses for selectedd variables annd countriess are presenteed in
Figures 17
7a thru 33. In
n order to sh
how the direcction and disspersion of tthe stochastiic outcome ddistribution,
four selected outcomee items (stochastic average, 10th perccentile, 90th ppercentile, aand the coeffficient of
(
for seelected variaables are pressented. Intuiitively, the ggap between the two perccentiles (10thh
variation (C.V.)
and 90th) indicates
i
vollatility or rissk. Widening
g indicates inncreased vollatility and nnarrowing indicates
decreased
d volatility.
Another measure
m
of dispersion
d
off data points in a data serries, such as each of the resulting proobability
distributio
ons in this stu
udy, is the coefficient off variation (C
C.V.) which shows the eextent of variiability in
relation to
o the mean. It
I is computeed by dividin
ng the standaard deviationn by the meaan. The loweer the C.V.
is, the bettter it is becaause it indicaates more staability, i.e., leess risk.
The inform
mation projeected in each
h one of the charts
c
is sim
milar in princciple. Hence,, for space coonsideration
n
only one representativ
r
ve chart (Fig
gure 17) will be discussedd--which cann then be used as a patteern in
understanding the restt of the chartts.
Figure 17 shows the lo
ong grain ricce international referencce price. For 2014, whilee the mean prrice is $404
per metricc ton (mt), th
he stochasticc distribution
n indicates thhat 10% of thhe time the aaverage price will be
higher thaan $463 per mt
m and loweer than $352 per mt 10% of the time.. The gap between the tw
wo
percentilees is $111; an
nd the gap vaaries across the
t estimatioon period. T
The computedd C.V. for 20014 is
11.2%.
Going forrward to 2023, while the mean price is $416 per mt, the stochhastic distribbution indicaates that
10% of th
he time the av
verage pricee will be high
her than $4889 per mt andd lower thann $360 per m
mt 10% of thee
time. Thiss time the gaap between th
he two perceentiles is widder at $129, with C.V. off 12.4%.
s
analy
ysis can be made
m
for the rest of the sttochastic ressults for the other selecteed variables
Again, a similar
presented. The same principle
p
hollds—with the difference lying only w
with varyingg units and abbsolute
Page28
numbers. This featuree of the stoch
hastic analyssis provides aan advantage as it indicaates how thee outcomes
buted, thus providing infformation on
n risk and unncertainty whhich is an innnate characteeristic of
are distrib
agricultural commoditty enterprisees and markeets, such as tthat of rice. T
Thus, the stoochastic anallysis
complemeents the basic informatio
on generated
d by the deterrministic anaalysis by prooviding a bettter
understanding of the dynamics
d
off the global rice market.
Conclussions and Summary
S

he general asssessment off the global rice
r economyy in this baseline over thhe next decade indicates
Th
thaat, under asssumed normaal average weather
w
condditions, the w
world is projeected to facee abundant
ricce supplies due
d to curren
nt surpluses; increased prroductivity aand use of m
modern growing and
pro
ocessing technologies; and
a focus on self-sufficieency in rice----all pointinng to a most likely
en
nvironment of
o relatively low
l and stab
ble global ricce prices.

here are riskks involved inn the rice inddustry due too the
Ass in any otheer enterprise,, however, th
un
ncertainties of
o weather, domestic
d
pollicies, politiccal developm
ments, and otther unexpeccted events.
Th
he probable upper
u
and lo
ower bounds (confidencee intervals) oof future disttribution of ooutcomes
aree indicated in the stochastic analysiss included inn this report. This inform
mation can seerve as
useful guide fo
or various stakeholders in
i the rice inndustry.
Page29
Estiimatess of th
he Determin
nistic B
Baselin
ne Anaalysis
Tab
bles and C
Charts of Rice Supp
ply, Utilization and
d Net Trade, 2013‐‐2023 Page30
Table 1 W
World Rice Net Trad
de by Country and
d International Reference Prices, 201
13‐2023 Net Expo
orters Argenttina Australia odia Cambo
Peoplee's Republic of Chin
na Egypt India mar (Burma) Myanm
Pakistaan Thailan
nd United
d States Uruguaay Vietnam Total N
Net Exports * Net Importers Banglaadesh Brazil Brunei Darussalam Camerroon Canadaa China ‐‐ Hong Kong Colombia Cote d'Ivoire Europeean Union‐27 Ghana Guineaa Indoneesia Iran Iraq Japan Kenya DR Lao PD
Liberiaa Malayssia Mali o Mexico
13/14 14/15 15//16 16/17 574 373 1,007 ‐3,050 839 10,029 677 3,349 7,761 2,407 910 7,116 31,991 606
398
1,146
‐2,504
870
9,647
701
3,525
7,648
2,305
928
7,259
32,528 638
6
407
4
1,3
342
‐2,3
322
920
9
9,3
324
774
7
3,7
748
7,7
777
2,2
298
944
9
7,5
509
33,3
360 656
438
1,581
‐2,268
939
9,149
996
3,833
7,989
2,337
969
7,509
34,129 313 ‐84 47 528 358 438 276 1,330 1,132 600 259 1,717 1,720 1,446 482 449 15 240 1,131 158 747 961
‐337
48
488
376
445
325
1,329
1,155
631
269
2,117
1,710
1,438
482
461
‐23
246
1,065
138
750
1,3
376
‐3
363
49
485
4
420
4
447
4
342
3
1,2
265
1,1
147
653
6
225
2
2,0
074
1,7
731
1,4
481
482
4
533
5
‐25
‐
257
2
1,0
066
45
762
7
1,418
‐314
50
488
435
453
386
1,246
1,148
672
217
2,052
1,839
1,534
482
549
‐31
286
1,091
15
777
19/20 20//21 21/22 22/23 23/24 (Thousand Metricc Tons) 713
755
783 445
447
456 1,997 1,641
1,880
‐1,971 ‐2,138
‐2,043
984 992
987
8,564 8,886
8,733
1,169 1,153
1,218
3,563 3,571
3,558
9,264 8,192
8,711
2,334 2,395
2,330
997 984
993
7,911 7,637
7,738
36,051 34,470 3
35,308
8 27
4441
2,1005
‐1,9 75
9 71
8,3 74
1,1 63
3,6449
9,7 76
2,3 66
9999
7,9 62
36,6 59 871
459
2,224
‐1,783
968
8,059
1,207
3,712
10,294
2,372
1,003
8,090
37,476 916
458
2,306
‐‐1,711
970
8,088
1,250
3,769
1
10,660
2,316
1,015
8,176
3
38,214 948
421
2,375
‐1,616
984
7,987
1,259
3,834
10,973
2,328
1,038
8,225
38,756 1,575 ‐310 54 520 471 468 425 1,229 1,128 773 228 1,897 1,961 1,696 482 711 ‐137 339 1,166 ‐90 839 1,5990
‐2 72
55
5445
4881
4 73
4 23
1,2 23
1,1004
8007
2 37
1,8 74
1,9 62
1,7447
4882
7 62
‐1 70
3 57
1,1991
‐996
8 60
1,594
‐253
56
543
491
477
421
1,247
1,092
824
266
2,011
2,008
1,803
482
801
‐196
375
1,222
‐108
878
1,855
‐247
57
551
500
481
426
1,193
1,085
835
257
2,137
2,045
1,856
482
830
‐234
382
1,240
‐144
888
1,918
‐217
58
533
514
494
427
1,207
1,059
854
276
2,085
2,045
1,908
482
863
‐235
406
1,262
‐143
890
17/18 1,636
‐347
51
502
448
458
405
1,248
1,142
696
218
1,715
1,862
1,595
482
587
‐68
303
1,118
‐52
797
18/19
1,573
‐330
53
505
461
463
422
1,255
1,134
757
235
1,701
1,921
1,647
482
662
‐101
327
1,141
‐64
819
Page31
Mozam
mbique Nigeriaa Philipp
pines Saudi A
Arabia Senegaal Sierra Leone pore Singap
Africa South A
South Korea n Taiwan
Tanzan
nia Turkeyy Other A
Africa Other A
Americas Other A
Asia Other Europe Other O
Oceania Ecowas‐7 Residual Net Imports Total N
Rice Pricces Internaational Reference P
Price U.S. FO
OB Gulf Ports U.S. No
o. 2 Medium FOB C
CA 533 2,944 1,474 1,272 1,092 353 361 949 410 123 236 280 2,732 1,847 2,632 299 259 1,111 ‐223 31,991 472
2,984
1,412
1,311
1,048
353
364
931
409
123
277
281
2,775
1,556
2,754
241
274
1,126
‐235
32,528 507
5
2,9
987
1,4
406
1,3
355
1,0
075
349
3
372
3
930
9
409
4
123
1
302
3
287
2
2,8
864
1,7
755
2,6
697
239
2
287
2
1,1
196
‐2
236
33,3
360 509
2,945
1,345
1,401
1,082
352
375
943
409
123
298
282
3,025
1,830
2,854
257
300
1,269
‐264
34,129 393 606 636 401 559 670 402 4
545 5
680 6
403 532 688 520
558
574 2,924
3,015
3,012 1,064 1,220
1,146
1,501 1,437
1,467
1,105 1,087
1,100
331 341
337
378 376
377
962 952
968
409 409
409
123 123
123
369 315
352
269 298
301
3,415 3,183
3,306
2,060 1,899
1,951
3,148 2,930
3,044
269 253
265
339 313
326
1,577 1,363
1,467
‐277 ‐269
‐268
36,051 34,470 3
35,308
(U
U.S. Dollars per Meetric Ton) 404 403 404
517 519
511 693 698
704 6 21
3,0883
9 69
1,5 31
1,1 12
3 22
3 78
9 76
4009
1 23
4000
2 75
3,4 75
2,0 68
3,2 20
2 77
3 52
1,6998
‐2 62
36,6 59 654
3,109
848
1,560
1,114
315
377
1,004
409
123
444
286
3,608
2,052
3,336
302
364
1,819
‐283
37,476 705
3,121
762
1,584
1,114
298
375
994
409
123
469
282
3,683
1,994
3,462
324
376
1,947
‐282
3
38,214 729
3,144
649
1,611
1,115
286
386
1,035
409
123
494
280
3,750
1,953
3,539
347
388
2,081
‐245
38,756 4006 5 11 7 11 407 509 718 410 498 722 412 494 728 *Total neet exports are the
e sum of all posittive net exports and negative net iimports. Page32
Table 2 W
World Rice Supply, Utilization, Total T
Trade and Stocks‐tto Use, 2013‐2023.. 14/15 15//16 16/17 160,418 160,457
161,1
152
161,436
3.00
3.03
3.06
Productiion Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesttic Supply 473,470 482,068
107,200 106,526
580,669 588,594
488,3
336
110,3
363
598,6
698
493,434
115,368
608,802
19/20 17/18 18/19
(Thousand Hecttares) 16
61,700 161,949 162,076 Hectare) (Metric Tons per H
3.08
3.11
3.13 (Thousand Metricc Tons) 49
98,201 503,971 507,689 12
20,285 124,955 129,905 61
18,486 628,926 637,594 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesttic Use Total Trrade 474,370 478,466
106,526 110,363
580,896 588,829
39,614 39,795
483,5
566
115,3
368
598,9
935
40,4
462
488,781
120,285
609,066
41,236
49
93,799
12
24,955
61
18,755
41,505
4
23.07
23.86
24.61
Area Harrvested Yield Stocks‐to
o‐Use Ratio 13/14 2.95 22.46 20//21 21/22 22/23 23/24 162,2 51
162,472
16
62,511
162,644
3. 16
3.18
3.20
3.23
512,1 54
133,7 21
645,8 74
516,374
137,602
653,975
51
19,523
14
40,941
66
60,464
525,080
143,015
668,095
499,290 504,151 508,5 34
129,905 133,721 137,6002
629,195 637,871 646,1 36
42,309
42,995 43,6 52
(Percent)
26.52 27.006
25.30
26.02
513,317
140,941
654,258
44,300
51
17,731
14
43,015
66
60,746
4
44,971
521,877
146,464
668,341
45,437
27.46
27.62
28.06
20//21 21/22 22/23 23/24 1,1 25
1,113
1,106
1,100
6. 20
6.23
6.25
6.28
6,9 72
1,2 72
8,2444
6,934
1,309
8,242
6,917
1,294
8,211
6,909
1,215
8,125
4,540 1,272 5,812 2,334 4,5 69
1,3009
5,8 78
2,3 66
4,576
1,294
5,871
2,372
4,680
1,215
5,895
2,316
4,599
1,198
5,797
2,328
13.56 12.67 15.61 13. 52
12. 62
15. 61
13.48
12.51
15.69
13.44
12.43
15.71
13.47
12.42
15.78
U.S. Rice Supply, Uttilization, Net Trad
de and Farm Pricess, 2013‐2023. Table 3 U
13/14 14/15 15//16 Area Harrvested 999 1,060
Yield 6.02 6.05
Productiion Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesttic Supply 6,013 1,156 7,169 6,415
923
7,338
Consumption Ending SStocks Domesttic Use Net Traade U.S. Ricee Farm Prices Season Average Farm Pricce Long Grain Farm Price m Grain Farm Price
e Medium
3,843 923 4,766 2,407 4,008
1,025
5,033
2,305
4,1
104
1,1
140
5,2
244
2,2
298
15.44 14.92 16.63 14.42
13.92
15.57
14..31
13..73
15..65
17/18 18/19
19/20 (Thousand Hecttares) 1,0
072
1,082
1,091
1,100
1,118 (Metric Tons per Hectares) 6.08
6.11
6.13
6.15
6.17 (Thousand Metricc Tons) 517
6,608
6,691
6,769
6,5
6,903 1,0
025
1,140
1,230
1,220
1,242 7,5
542
7,749
7,921
7,989
8,145 16/17 4,182
4,305
4,416
1,230
1,220
1,242
5,412
5,525
5,659
2,337
2,395
2,330
(U.S. Dollars per Cwt)
14.21
13.63
13.69
13.52
12.75
12.81
15.79
15.62
15.71
Page33
Table 4 A
Argentina Rice Supp
ply, Utilization and
d Net Trade, 2013‐‐2023 13/14 14/15 15//16 16/17 17/18 18/19
19/20 (Thousand Hecttares) 252 259
263 (Metric Tons per H
Hectares) 4.71 4.63 4.67
(Thousand Metricc Tons) 1,239 1,166 1,208
173 181
185 1,338 1,388
1,424 20//21 21/22 22/23 23/24 2 70 276 284 289 4. 76 4.80 4.85 4.89 1,2882 1889 1,4 71 1,328 188 1,516 1,376 187 1,563 1,411 186 1,597 Area Harrvested 232 236 240 2
246 Yield 4.20 4.34 4.49 4.56 975 194 1,169 1,023 164 1,186 1,0
077 146 1
1,2
223 1,121 149 1,269 431 164 595 574 434 146 580 606 437 4
149 1
586 5
638 6
441 173 614 656 445 181 626 713 448
185
633
755
452 189 641 783 4 55 1888 6443 8 27 458 187 645 871 461 186 647 916 464 185 649 948 16/17 17/18 18/19
19/20 20//21 21/22 22/23 23/24 1 14 115 115 115 7.007 7.10 7.11 7.11 8008 1 26 9 34 816 131 947 817 124 942 817 115 932 3 62 1 31 4993 4441 363 124 487 459 368 115 483 458 375 136 511 421 Productiion Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesttic Supply Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade Australia Rice Supply, Utilization and Net Trade, 2013‐2
2023 Table 5 A
Area Harrvested 13/14 14/15 15//16 99 106 112 1
114 Yield 7.07 7.05 7.04 7.03 Productiion Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesttic Supply 702 120 822 750 87 838 789 7
88 877 8
800 115 915 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 362 87 449 373 352 88 439 398 355 3
115 1
470 4
407 4
353 124 477 438 (Thousand Hecttares) 115 115
115 (Metric Tons per H
Hectares) 7.05 7.04 7.05
(Thousand Metricc Tons) 809 807 810
124 131
134 931 940
943 355 131 486 445 359
134
493
447
360 126 487 456 Page34
Table 6 Bangladesh Rice Supply, Utilization an
nd Net Trade, 2013
3‐2023 20//21 21/22 22/23 23/24 12,1 58 12,183 1
12,185 12,219 3.005 3.08 3.09 3.12 37,1003 8446 37,9449 37,511 854 38,365 3
37,679 862 3
38,541 38,068 871 38,938 34,674 35,220 35,9
Consumption 998 36,552 37,221 3
37,876
38,291 38,6885 39,097 3
39,526 773 Ending SStocks 824 838
871 784 800 8
811 846 8 54 862 35,448 36,004 36,7
39,137 39,5 39 39,959 4
Domesstic Use 798 37,363 38,045 3
38,714
40,396 ‐313 ‐1,575 ‐1,5990 ‐1,636 ‐1,573
Net Traade* ‐961 ‐1,3
376 ‐1,418 ‐1,594 ‐‐1,855 *In this ttable and the rest o
of the tables, negative net trade meaans net imports, as opposed to positivve net trade whichh means net exportts.
39,976 880 40,856 ‐1,918 Area Harrvested Yield Productiion Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesttic Supply 13/14 14/15 15//16 16/17 11,770 11,731 11,8
856 11,943 2.92 2.92 2.92 2.94 34,412 722 35,134 34,269 773 35,043 34,6
638 784 7
35,4
422 35,145 800 35,945 17/18 18/19
19/20 (Thousand Hecttares) 11,990 1
12,116
12,150 (Metric Tons per H
Hectares) 3.02 2.97 3.00
(Thousand Metricc Tons) 36,725 35,598 3
36,317
811 824
838 36,409 3
37,141
37,562 Utilization and Nett Trade, 2013‐2023
3 Table 7 Brazil Rice Supply, U
Area Harrvested 13/14 2,421 14/15 2,424 15//16 2,4
425 16/17 2,430 3.39 3.40 3.42 3.43 Productiion Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesttic Supply 8,217 680 8,897 8,249 826 9,075 8,3
304 835 8
9,1
139 8,344 836 9,180 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 7,987 826 8,813 84 7,903 835 8,738 337 7,9
939 836 8
8,7
775 363 3
8,031 835 8,866 314 Yield 17/18 18/19
19/20 20//21 21/22 22/23 23/24 2,4 38 2,443 2,445 2,449 (Thousand Hecttares) 2,435 2,437
2,438 (Metric Tons per H
Hectares) 3.49 3.46 3.48
(Thousand Metricc Tons) 8,502 8,417 8,474
828 835 832
9,330 9,252 9,306
3. 50 3.51 3.52 3.53 8,5 28 8 24 9,3 52 8,581 820 9,402 8,606 816 9,422 8,646 813 9,460 8,195 824 9,019 310 8,2 60 8 20 9,0880 2 72 8,332 816 9,148 253 8,362 813 9,175 247 8,432 810 9,242 217 8,073 832 8,905 347 8,148
828
8,976
330
Page35
Table 8 Brunei Darussalam Rice Supply, Utilizzation and Net Trad
de, 2013‐2023 Area Harrvested Yield Productiion Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesttic Supply Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 13/14 14/15 15//16 16/17 17/18 18/19
19/20 (Thousand Hecttares) 5 5
5 (Metric Tons per H
Hectares) 0.20 0.20 0.20
(Thousand Metricc Tons) 1 1 1
0 0 0
1 1 1
20//21 21/22 22/23 23/24 5 5 5 5 0. 20 0.20 0.20 0.20 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 5 5 5 5 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 48 0 48 ‐47 49 0 49 ‐48 50 0 50 ‐49 ‐
51 0 51 ‐50 52 0 52 ‐51 54
0
54
‐53
55 0 55 ‐54 56 0 56 ‐ 55 57 0 57 ‐56 58 0 58 ‐57 59 0 59 ‐58 16/17 17/18 18/19
19/20 20//21 21/22 22/23 23/24 3,0 34 3,045 3,037 3,041 Table 9 Cambodia Rice Supply, Utilization and
d Net Trade, 2013‐‐2023 Area Harrvested 13/14 2,975 14/15 2,961 15//16 2,9
969 2,992 1.65 1.70 1.78 1.87 Productiion Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesttic Supply 4,918 196 5,114 5,027 301 5,328 5,2
296 304 3
5,6
600 5,606 307 5,913 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 3,806 301 4,108 1,007 3,878 304 4,182 1,146 3,9
951 307 3
4,2
258 1,3
342 4,022 310 4,332 1,581 Yield (Thousand Hecttares) 3,006 3,018
3,025 (Metric Tons per H
Hectares) 2.06 1.91 2.00
(Thousand Metricc Tons) 6,228 5,738 6,045
315 310 312
6,543 6,047 6,357
2. 12 2.17 2.23 2.27 6,4 17 3 18 6,7 34 6,614 321 6,935 6,773 324 7,097 6,917 327 7,243 4,229 318 4,547 1,997 4,3009 3 21 4,6 29 2,1005 4,387 324 4,711 2,224 4,464 327 4,790 2,306 4,539 330 4,868 2,375 4,094 312 4,406 1,641 4,162
315
4,477
1,880
Page36
Table 10 C
Cameroon Rice Supply, Utilization an
nd Net Trade, 2013
3‐2023 13/14 14/15 15//16 16/17 17/18 18/19
19/20 (Thousand Hecttares) 149 152
156 (Metric Tons per H
Hectares) 1.08 1.08 1.09
(Thousand Metricc Tons) 168 162 166
26 25 26
194 187 191
20//21 21/22 22/23 23/24 1 57 160 163 167 1.008 1.09 1.09 1.09 1 70 26 1997 173 27 201 177 28 205 182 28 210 Area Harrvested 140 140 145 1
147 Yield 0.90 0.97 1.07 1.08 Productiion Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesttic Supply 127 0 127 136 24 160 155 1
24 179 1
159 25 184 630 24 655 ‐528 624 24 648 ‐488 639 6
25 664 6
‐4
485 647 25 672 ‐488 663 26 689 ‐502 671
26
696
‐505
687 26 714 ‐520 7 14 27 7442 ‐5445 716 28 744 ‐543 728 28 756 ‐551 716 28 744 ‐533 15//16 16/17 17/18 18/19
19/20 20//21 21/22 22/23 23/24 (Thousand Metricc Tons) 448 461
471 0 0
0 448 461
471 ‐448 ‐461
‐471 4881 0 4881 ‐4881 491 0 491 ‐491 500 0 500 ‐500 514 0 514 ‐514 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade Table 11 C
Canada Rice Utiliza
ation and Net Trad
de, 2013‐2023 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 13/14 358 0 358 ‐358 14/15 376 0 376 ‐376 420 4
0 420 4
‐4
420 435 0 435 ‐435 Page37
Table 12 People’s Republic of China Rice Supp
ply, Utilization and
d Net Trade, 2013‐‐2023 Area Harrvested Yield 13/14 14/15 15//16 16/17 30,386 30,170 30,0
089 30,073 4.67 4.80 4.85 4.88 17/18 18/19
19/20 20//21 21/22 22/23 23/24 (Thousand Hecttares) 30,014 3
29,884
29,671 29,5 61 29,445 2
29,272 29,149 (Metric Tons per H
Hectares) 5.07 5.10 4.99 5.001 4.92 4.95
5.04 (Thousand Metricc Tons) 14
47,560 147,976 147,909 148,1443 148,394 14
48,448 148,687 49,826 4
52,521
55,431 57,9991 60,942 6
63,719 66,443 19
97,386 200,497 203,340 206,1 34 209,336 21
12,167 215,130 Productiion Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesttic Supply 141,811 144,907 145,8
879 146,884 46,782 45,361 46,2
256 47,657 188,593 190,268 192,1
136 194,541 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 146,282 146,516 146,8
800 146,983 14
47,003 147,109
45,361 46,256 47,6
657 49,826 52,521 5
55,431
191,643 192,772 194,4
457 196,809 19
99,524 202,540
‐3,050 ‐2,138 ‐2,043
‐2,504 ‐2,3
322 ‐2,268 147,320 147,1 67 147,400 14
47,435 147,363 57,991 60,9442 63,719 6
66,443 69,384 205,311 208,1009 211,119 21
13,878 216,747 ‐1,971 ‐1,9 75 ‐1,783 ‐‐1,711 ‐1,616 Table 13 C
Colombia Rice Sup
pply, Utilization an
nd Net Trade, 2013
3‐2023 13/14 14/15 15//16 16/17 Area Harrvested 441 448 452 4
454 Yield 2.99 3.00 3.01 3.02 Productiion Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesttic Supply 1,318 78 1,396 1,341 131 1,473 1,3
360 226 2
1,5
586 1,373 305 1,678 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 1,541 131 1,672 ‐276 1,571 226 1,797 ‐325 1,6
623 305 3
1,9
928 ‐3
342 1,727 337 2,064 ‐386 17/18 18/19
19/20 (Thousand Hecttares) 456 457
458 (Metric Tons per H
Hectares) 3.07 3.04 3.05
(Thousand Metricc Tons) 1,405 1,386 1,396
344 337 348
1,723 1,744
1,749 1,780 348 2,128 ‐405 1,823
344
2,166
‐422
1,834 340 2,174 ‐425 20//21 21/22 22/23 23/24 4 58 458 458 459 3.008 3.10 3.11 3.12 1,4 11 3440 1,7 51 1,418 341 1,759 1,425 347 1,772 1,432 349 1,781 1,8 33 3441 2,1 74 ‐4 23 1,832 347 2,179 ‐421 1,848 349 2,197 ‐426 1,855 352 2,207 ‐427 Page38
Table 14 C
Cote D’Ivoire Rice Supply, Utilization
n and Net Trade, 2
2013‐2023 13/14 14/15 15//16 16/17 Area Harrvested 452 454 458 4
474 Yield 1.23 1.33 1.43 1.47 Productiion Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesttic Supply Consumption Ending SStocks Domesttic Use Net Traade 555 320 875 605 326 931 654 6
335 3
989 9
697 334 1,031 1,879 326 2,205 ‐1,330 1,925 335 2,260 ‐1,329 1,9
920 334 3
2,2
254 ‐1,2
265 1,939 338 2,277 ‐1,246 17/18 18/19
19/20 20//21 21/22 22/23 23/24 5 33 551 568 576 1. 63 1.67 1.71 1.75 (Thousand Hecttares) 491 507
519 (Metric Tons per H
Hectare) 1.59 1.51 1.55
(Thousand Metricc Tons) 823 739 786
356 338 346
1,180 1,077 1,132
8 70 3 56 1,2 26 918 358 1,277 973 366 1,340 1,007 364 1,371 2,053 356 2,409 ‐1,229 2,0991 3 58 2,4449 ‐1,2 23 2,157 366 2,524 ‐1,247 2,169 364 2,532 ‐‐1,193 2,210 367 2,577 ‐1,207 20/21 21//22 1,979 346 2,325 ‐1,248 2,031
356
2,387
‐1,255
Table 15 Egypt Rice Supply,, Utilization and Ne
et Trade, 2013‐202
23 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 5,111 725 5,836 (Thousand H
Hectares) 763 763
759 759 759
(Metric Tons per Hectares) 6.83 6.86 6.88
6.77 6.8
(Thousand Metric Tons) 5,185 5
5,206 5,224
5,165 5,186
1,111 1
1,074 997
901 1,044
6,295 6
6,279 6,221
6,066 6,230
4,065 901 4,966 870 4,101 1,044 5,146 920 Area Harvested 801
1 764 Yield 6.48
8 6.69 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 5,188
8 462
2 5,650
0 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Trade 4,086
6 725
5 4,811
1 839
9 4,180
1,111
5,291
939
4,230 1,074 5,304 992 4,296 4
997 5
5,293 987 4,317
920
5,237
984
22/23 23/24 761 762 761 767 6.94 7 7.06 7.12 5,283 920 6,203 5,335 855 6,189 6
5,373 821 6,193 5,459 803 6,262 4,378 855 5,233 971 4
4,401 821 5,221 968 4,420 803 5,224 970 4,535 743 5,278 984 Page39
Table 16 EU‐27 Rice Supply, Utilization and Net Trade, 2013‐202
23 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 (Thousand H
Hectares) 468 4
471 473 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 4.88 4
4.94 5.01 (Thousand Metric Tons) 2,283 2,3
326 2,370 619 5
581 568 2,902 2,9
907 2,938 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 476 478 481 481 5.08 5.14 5.21 5.25 2,416 576 2,991 2,461 591 3,052 2,506 627 3,133 2,523 684 3,208 Area Harvested 456 458 461 464 Yield 4.62 4.67 4.74 4.81 2,104 1,055 3,159 2,138 903 3,041 2,185 786 2,971 2,234 689 2,923 3,389 903 4,291 ‐1,132 3,410 786 4,196 ‐1,155 3,429 689 4,118 ‐1,147 3,451 619 4,071 ‐1,148 3,463 581 4,044 ‐1,142 3,4
472 5
568 4,0
041 ‐1,1
134 3,490 576 4,066 ‐1,128 3,504 591 4,095 ‐1,104 3,517 627 4,145 ‐1,092 3,534 684 4,218 ‐1,085 3,546 721 4,267 ‐1,059 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 256 267 280 296 1.96 2 2.04 2.08 503 198 701 535 210 744 572 220 792 616 229 846 1,298 210 1,508 ‐807 1,349 220 1,568 ‐824 1,397 229 1,627 ‐835 1,458 242 1,700 ‐854 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade Ghana Rice Supplyy, Utilization and N
Net Trade, 2013‐20
023 Table 17 G
13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 Area Harvested 194 197 205 213 Yield 1.69 1.72 1.75 1.8 Production Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesstic Supply 329 132 461 338 135 473 360 142 502 384 151 535 926 135 1,061 ‐600 962 142 1,104 ‐631 1,004 151 1,155 ‐653 ‐
1,047 159 1,207 ‐672 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Trade (Thousand H
Hectares) 223 2
235 247 (Metric Tons peer Hectares) 1.85 1
1.89 1.94 (Thousand Metric Tons) 412 4
445 479 159 1
170 187 572 6
615 666 1,098 170 1,268 ‐696 1,1
185 1
187 1,3
373 ‐7
757 1,241 198 1,439 ‐773 Page40
Table 18 G
Guinea Rice Supply, Utilization and N
Net Trade, 2013‐20
023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 1,018 1,019 1,020 1,020 1.62 1.65 1.69 1.72 1,653 95 1,748 1,682 98 1,780 1,728 100 1,828 1,757 101 1,859 1,001 1,001 1,002 1,004 1.27 1.34 1.4 1.46 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 1,275 105 1,380 1,338 85 1,423 1,405 87 1,492 1,462 88 1,550 (Thousand H
Hectares) 1,008 1,0
007 1,016 (Metric Tons peer Hectares) 1.5 1
1.54 1.58 (Thousand Metric Tons) 1,509 1,5
549 1,606 91 94 90 1,598 1,6
640 1,700 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Trade 1,555 85 1,640 ‐259 1,605 87 1,692 ‐269 1,629 88 1,717 ‐225 ‐
1,677 90 1,767 ‐217 1,725 91 1,816 ‐218 1,7
781 94 1,8
875 ‐2
235 1,832 95 1,928 ‐228 1,887 98 1,985 ‐237 1,946 100 2,046 ‐266 1,984 101 2,085 ‐257 2,031 103 2,134 ‐276 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 (Thousand Metric Tons) 458 4
463 468 0 0 0 458 4
463 468 ‐458 ‐4
463 ‐468 473 0 473 ‐473 477 0 477 ‐477 481 0 481 ‐481 494 0 494 ‐494 Area Harvested Yield China‐Hong Kong Rice Utilization and Net Trade, 2013‐2023 Table 19 C
Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 438 0 438 ‐438 445 0 445 ‐445 447 0 447 ‐447 ‐
453 0 453 ‐453 Page41
Table 20 India Rice Supply, Utilization and Ne
et Trade, 2013‐202
23 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 43,527 43,562 43,567 43,564 43,503 43,480 43,590 43,535 2.37 2.45 2.48 2.51 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 103,265 25,100 128,365 106,474 23,302 129,776 108,287 23,562 131,849 109,428 24,316 133,744 (Thousand H
Hectares) 43,451 43,4
420 43,479 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 2.54 2
2.58 2.6 (Thousand Metric Tons) 110,182 112,0
093 113,160 24,687 24,4
404 24,729 134,868 136,4
497 137,889 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 95,034 23,302 118,336 10,029 96,567 23,562 120,129 9,647 98,208 24,316 122,524 9,324 99,908 24,687 124,594 9,149 101,578 24,404 125,982 8,886 103,0
035 24,7
729 127,7
764 8,7
733 104,607 24,718 129,325 8,564 106,182 24,715 130,897 8,374 107,717 24,804 132,521 8,059 109,158 24,094 133,252 8,088 110,532 24,727 135,259 7,987 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 12,208 12,200 12,197 12,227 3.34 3.36 3.37 3.39 40,743 3,118 43,861 40,946 3,124 44,070 41,160 3,126 44,286 41,505 3,127 44,633 42,611 3,124 45,735 ‐1,874 42,955 3,126 46,081 ‐2,011 43,296 3,127 46,424 ‐2,137 43,590 3,127 46,717 ‐2,085 Area Harvested Yield 2.63 2.66 2.67 2.74 114,553 24,718 139,271 115,865 24,715 140,580 116,536 24,804 141,340 119,152 24,094 143,246 pply, Utilization an
nd Net Trade, 2013
3‐2023 Table 21 Indonesia Rice Sup
13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 12,168 12,198 12,272 12,208 3.1 3.14 3.17 3.21 Production Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesstic Supply 37,758 3,085 40,843 38,321 2,550 40,872 38,905 2,686 41,592 39,130 2,872 42,002 (Thousand H
Hectares) 12,207 12,2
220 12,204 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 3.26 3
3.29 3.31 (Thousand Metric Tons) 39,779 40,2
251 40,384 2,999 3,0
069 3,103 42,778 43,3
320 43,487 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 40,010 2,550 42,560 ‐1,717 40,302 2,686 42,989 ‐2,117 40,794 2,872 43,666 ‐2,074 41,055 2,999 44,054 ‐2,052 41,423 3,069 44,492 ‐1,715 Area Harvested Yield 41,9
918 3,1
103 45,0
022 ‐1,7
701 42,267 3,118 45,385 ‐1,897 Page42
Table 22 Iran Rice Supply, U
Utilization and Nett Trade, 2013‐2023
3 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 (Thousand H
Hectares) 598 6
600 603 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 2.91 2
2.93 2.96 (Thousand Metric Tons) 1,738 1,7
759 1,783 573 5
576 588 2,311 2,3
335 2,371 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 604 605 606 608 2.98 3.01 3.03 3.06 1,802 603 2,405 1,820 615 2,435 1,839 629 2,468 1,858 645 2,503 Area Harvested 570 581 592 595 Yield 2.81 2.83 2.86 2.88 1,601 756 2,357 1,645 704 2,349 1,690 618 2,308 1,715 578 2,293 3,373 704 4,077 ‐1,720 3,441 618 4,059 ‐1,710 3,462 578 4,040 ‐1,731 3,559 573 4,132 ‐1,839 3,597 576 4,172 ‐1,862 3,6
668 5
588 4,2
256 ‐1,9
921 3,729 603 4,332 ‐1,961 3,753 615 4,368 ‐1,962 3,813 629 4,443 ‐2,008 3,869 645 4,514 ‐2,045 3,892 656 4,549 ‐2,045 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 76 75 75 75 2.25 2.27 2.28 2.29 171 431 602 169 447 616 171 461 632 173 475 648 1,902 447 2,349 ‐1,747 1,958 461 2,419 ‐1,803 2,013 475 2,488 ‐1,856 2,066 489 2,556 ‐1,908 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade Table 23 Iraq Rice Supply, U
Utilization and Nett Trade, 2013‐2023
3 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 65 67 68 69 Yield 2.17 2.17 2.19 2.2 Production Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesstic Supply 142 208 350 146 285 431 148 331 480 152 358 510 1,511 285 1,796 ‐1,446 1,538 331 1,869 ‐1,438 1,603 358 1,961 ‐1,481 1,665 379 2,044 ‐1,534 Area Harvested Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade (Thousand H
Hectares) 70 72 75 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 2.22 2
2.23 2.24 (Thousand Metric Tons) 156 1
160 168 379 3
398 415 535 5
558 583 1,733 398 2,131 ‐1,595 1,7
790 4
415 2,2
205 ‐1,6
647 1,848 431 2,279 ‐1,696 Page43
Table 24 JJapan Rice Supply,, Utilization and Net Trade, 2013‐202
23 Area Harvested 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 (Thousand H
Hectares) 1,510 1,4
489 1,483 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 4.8 4.8 4.81 (Thousand Metric Tons) 7,259 7,1
152 7,121 2,639 2,5
590 2,491 9,898 9,7
742 9,612 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 1,462 1,456 1,449 1,436 4.8 4
4.8 4.79 4.79 7,017 2,436 9,453 6,983 2,343 9,326 6,941 2,266 9,207 6,873 2,198 9,072 1,603 1,572 1,548 1,526 4.8 4.81 4.81 4.8 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 7,697 2,753 10,450 7,556 2,768 10,324 7,445 2,712 10,157 7,332 2,680 10,012 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 8,164 2,768 10,932 ‐482 8,094 2,712 10,806 ‐482 7,959 2,680 10,639 ‐482 ‐
7,854 2,639 10,494 ‐482 7,790 2,590 10,380 ‐482 7,7
733 2,4
491 10,2
224 ‐4
482 7,658 2,436 10,094 ‐482 7,592 2,343 9,935 ‐482 7,543 2,266 9,808 ‐482 7,491 2,198 9,689 ‐482 7,400 2,153 9,554 ‐482 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 37 38 39 40 1.86 1.87 1.87 1.87 69 147 216 71 156 226 73 166 238 74 174 248 823 156 978 ‐762 862 166 1,028 ‐801 895 174 1,068 ‐830 928 182 1,111 ‐863 Yield Table 25 Kenya Rice Supplyy, Utilization and N
Net Trade, 2013‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 Area Harvested 33 33 34 34 Yield 1.8 1.82 1.83 1.84 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 58 77 135 60 86 147 61 91 153 63 107 169 498 86 584 ‐449 517 91 608 ‐461 578 107 685 ‐533 ‐
605 113 718 ‐549 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Trade (Thousand H
Hectares) 35 36 36 (Metric Tons peer Hectares) 1.84 1
1.85 1.86 (Thousand Metric Tons) 66 67 64 113 1
123 138 178 1
188 206 642 123 765 ‐587 713 7
1
138 8
851 ‐6
662 769 147 917 ‐711 Page44
Table 26 Lao PDR Rice Supp
ply, Utilization and
d Net Trade, 2013‐2
2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 930 942 953 963 Area Harvested 872 884 886 891 Yield 1.77 1.8 1.83 1.87 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 1,547 50 1,597 1,589 79 1,668 1,621 80 1,701 1,665 81 1,746 (Thousand H
Hectares) 898 9
909 920 (Metric Tons peer Hectares) 1.93 1
1.98 2.02 (Thousand Metric Tons) 1,733 1,8
800 1,861 84 85 83 1,816 1,8
884 1,946 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Trade 1,533 79 1,612 ‐15 1,565 80 1,645 23 1,595 81 1,676 25 1,633 83 1,716 31 1,664 84 1,748 68 1,6
698 85 1,7
783 1
101 1,723 86 1,809 137 1,751 87 1,838 170 1,788 89 1,877 196 1,815 90 1,905 234 1,856 91 1,947 235 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 280 283 285 286 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.86 235 22 257 239 23 262 243 24 267 247 24 271 591 23 614 ‐357 613 24 637 ‐375 625 24 649 ‐382 652 25 678 ‐406 2.07 2.11 2.15 2.17 1,922 86 2,008 1,985 87 2,072 2,051 89 2,139 2,093 90 2,183 Table 27 Liberia Rice Supplyy, Utilization and N
Net Trade, 2013‐20
023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 Area Harvested 258 262 266 269 Yield 0.78 0.79 0.8 0.8 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 201 0 201 206 16 223 212 17 229 217 18 235 424 16 441 ‐240 451 17 468 ‐246 468 18 486 ‐257 ‐
501 19 520 ‐286 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Trade (Thousand H
Hectares) 273 2
275 278 (Metric Tons peer Hectares) 0.81 0
0.82 0.83 (Thousand Metric Tons) 221 2
226 230 20 21 19 241 2
246 252 523 20 544 ‐303 552 5
21 5
573 ‐3
327 569 22 591 ‐339 Page45
Table 28 Malaysia Rice Supply, Utilization and
d Net Trade, 2013‐‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 (Thousand H
Hectares) 711 7
713 714 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 2.64 2
2.66 2.69 (Thousand Metric Tons) 1,876 1,8
896 1,924 692 7
702 709 2,568 2,5
598 2,633 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 715 715 715 714 2.73 2.75 2.79 2.82 1,950 716 2,667 1,970 724 2,694 1,994 732 2,726 2,015 740 2,755 Area Harvested 680 692 701 707 Yield 2.58 2.58 2.59 2.62 1,751 594 2,345 1,784 676 2,460 1,816 681 2,496 1,852 687 2,539 2,801 676 3,477 ‐1,131 2,844 681 3,524 ‐1,065 2,875 687 3,563 ‐1,066 2,938 692 3,630 ‐1,091 2,984 702 3,686 ‐1,118 3,0
030 7
709 3,7
739 ‐1,1
141 3,083 716 3,799 ‐1,166 3,133 724 3,857 ‐1,191 3,184 732 3,916 ‐1,222 3,226 740 3,966 ‐1,240 3,270 746 4,017 ‐1,262 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 808 817 840 848 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade Table 29 Mali Rice Supply, U
Utilization and Nett Trade, 2013‐2023
3 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 Area Harvested 626 652 695 722 Yield 2.19 2.23 2.28 2.35 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 1,370 127 1,497 1,455 129 1,584 1,588 131 1,720 1,693 133 1,826 (Thousand H
Hectares) 757 7
776 796 (Metric Tons peer Hectares) 2.41 2
2.47 2.54 (Thousand Metric Tons) 1,824 1,9
921 2,018 136 1
138 141 1,960 2,0
059 2,159 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Trade 1,526 129 1,655 ‐158 1,591 131 1,723 ‐138 1,632 133 1,765 ‐45 1,706 136 1,841 ‐15 1,770 138 1,908 52 1,8
854 1
141 1,9
995 64 1,925 144 2,069 90 2.59 2.65 2.71 2.77 2,090 144 2,234 2,164 147 2,310 2,274 149 2,423 2,346 152 2,497 1,992 147 2,138 96 2,053 149 2,202 108 2,128 152 2,280 144 2,199 155 2,354 143 Page46
Table 30 Mexico Rice Supplly, Utilization and Net Trade, 2013‐2023 Area Harvested 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 (Thousand H
Hectares) 41 40 40 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 3.78 3
3.73 3.75 (Thousand Metric Tons) 153 1
151 151 188 1
188 190 341 3
339 340 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 40 40 40 40 3.73 3.73 3.77 3.79 150 189 339 149 190 340 150 191 342 151 192 343 36 37 39 40 Yield 3.74 3.71 3.77 3.81 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 134 168 302 137 186 323 148 186 334 153 188 341 863 186 1,049 ‐747 887 186 1,074 ‐750 908 188 1,096 ‐762 ‐
930 188 1,118 ‐777 950 188 1,138 ‐797 968 9
1
190 1,1
158 ‐8
819 990 189 1,179 ‐839 1,009 190 1,199 ‐860 1,027 191 1,218 ‐878 1,038 192 1,230 ‐888 1,048 185 1,233 ‐890 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 275 281 287 293 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11 289 18 307 301 20 321 312 22 334 325 24 349 908 20 928 ‐621 953 22 975 ‐654 1,015 24 1,039 ‐705 1,052 25 1,077 ‐729 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade Table 31 Mozambique Rice Supply, Utilization
n and Net Trade, 2
2013‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 Area Harvested 242 246 251 255 Yield 0.94 0.95 0.97 0.99 Production Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesstic Supply 226 0 226 233 14 246 244 12 256 254 14 267 746 14 760 ‐533 707 12 719 ‐472 750 14 763 ‐507 ‐
762 14 777 ‐509 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Trade (Thousand H
Hectares) 260 2
265 270 (Metric Tons peer Hectares) 1.01 1
1.03 1.04 (Thousand Metric Tons) 263 2
274 281 15 17 14 278 2
289 298 783 15 798 ‐520 830 8
17 8
847 ‐5
558 854 18 872 ‐574 Page47
Table 32 Myanmar Rice Sup
pply, Utilization an
nd Net Trade, 2013
3‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 6,901 6,899 6,893 6,889 6,507 6,611 6,744 6,809 1.69 1.71 1.73 1.74 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 11,014 147 11,161 11,304 94 11,398 11,649 177 11,825 11,878 395 12,273 (Thousand H
Hectares) 6,885 6,9
900 6,899 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 1.76 1
1.78 1.8 (Thousand Metric Tons) 12,131 12,2
277 12,393 489 4
485 404 12,620 12,7
762 12,797 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 10,391 94 10,485 677 10,521 177 10,697 701 10,657 395 11,052 774 10,788 489 11,277 996 10,981 485 11,467 1,153 11,1
139 4
404 11,5
543 1,2
218 11,254 374 11,628 1,169 11,372 355 11,727 1,163 11,421 358 11,779 1,207 11,427 422 11,849 1,250 11,555 459 12,015 1,259 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 3,016 3,090 3,162 3,213 1.41 1.44 1.48 1.51 4,245 711 4,956 4,455 715 5,170 4,667 718 5,385 4,853 721 5,573 7,324 715 8,039 ‐3,083 7,561 718 8,279 ‐3,109 7,785 721 8,506 ‐3,121 7,995 722 8,717 ‐3,144 Area Harvested Yield 1.81 1.83 1.85 1.87 12,516 374 12,890 12,631 355 12,986 12,740 358 13,098 12,852 422 13,274 Table 33 Nigeria Rice Supply, Utilization and N
Net Trade, 2013‐20
023 Area Harvested Yield Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 2,479 2,547 2,670 2,734 1.16 1.22 1.24 1.27 2,884 885 3,769 3,101 659 3,761 3,315 652 3,968 3,475 669 4,144 6,054 659 6,713 ‐2,944 6,093 652 6,745 ‐2,984 6,286 669 6,955 ‐2,987 6,405 685 7,090 ‐2,945 (Thousand H
Hectares) 2,801 2,8
873 2,947 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 1.31 1
1.34 1.37 (Thousand Metric Tons) 3,655 3,8
847 4,048 685 6
696 705 4,340 4,5
544 4,753 6,567 696 7,263 ‐2,924 6,8
854 7
705 7,5
559 ‐3,0
015 7,054 711 7,765 ‐3,012 Page48
Table 34 Pakistan Rice Supp
ply, Utilization and
d Net Trade, 2013‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 2,837 2,913 2,946 2,990 2.37 2.37 2.38 2.39 6,731 750 7,482 6,915 719 7,634 7,024 753 7,777 7,134 781 7,915 Yield Production Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesstic Supply 2.34 2.36 2.36 2.36 6,323 600 6,923 6,426 956 7,382 6,420 1,114 7,534 6,517 964 7,481 (Thousand H
Hectares) 2,768 2,7
792 2,795 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 2.36 2
2.37 2.37 (Thousand Metric Tons) 6,536 6,6
607 6,619 744 7
749 772 7,280 7,3
355 7,391 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 2,618 956 3,574 3,349 2,743 1,114 3,857 3,525 2,821 964 3,786 3,748 2,904 744 3,648 3,833 2,961 749 3,710 3,571 3,0
026 7
772 3,7
797 3,5
558 3,077 750 3,827 3,563 3,113 719 3,832 3,649 3,169 753 3,922 3,712 3,227 781 4,008 3,769 3,270 811 4,081 3,834 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 4,698 4,708 4,712 4,718 Area Harvested 2,704 2,726 2,724 2,756 Table 35 Philippines Rice Su
upply, Utilization a
and Net Trade, 201
13‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 Yield Production Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesstic Supply 2.47 2.48 2.51 2.56 11,606 1,487 13,093 11,656 1,684 13,341 11,795 1,672 13,467 11,997 1,689 13,686 (Thousand H
Hectares) 4,679 4,6
683 4,700 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 2.62 2
2.67 2.71 (Thousand Metric Tons) 12,265 12,5
513 12,756 1,683 1,6
698 1,714 13,948 14,2
211 14,469 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 12,883 1,684 14,567 ‐1,474 13,080 1,672 14,752 ‐1,412 13,184 1,689 14,873 ‐1,406 13,348 1,683 15,032 ‐1,345 13,469 1,698 15,168 ‐1,220 Area Harvested 4,692 4,693 4,698 4,682 13,6
643 1,7
714 15,3
357 ‐1,1
146 13,799 1,734 15,533 ‐1,064 2.77 2.83 2.88 2.93 13,035 1,734 14,769 13,301 1,754 15,055 13,551 1,776 15,327 13,823 1,795 15,618 13,984 1,754 15,738 ‐969 14,127 1,776 15,903 ‐848 14,294 1,795 16,089 ‐762 14,451 1,815 16,267 ‐649 Page49
Table 36 SSaudi Arabia Rice Supply, Utilization
n and Net Trade, 20
013‐2023 Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesstic Supply Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 (Thousand Metric Tons) 233 2
238 241 233 2
238 241 244 244 247 247 250 250 253 253 214 214 221 221 225 225 229 229 1,265 221 1,486 ‐1,272 1,307 225 1,532 ‐1,311 1,351 229 1,580 ‐1,355 1,396 233 1,630 ‐1,401 1,432 238 1,670 ‐1,437 1,4
464 2
241 1,7
705 ‐1,4
467 1,498 244 1,742 ‐1,501 1,528 247 1,775 ‐1,531 1,557 250 1,807 ‐1,560 1,581 253 1,834 ‐1,584 1,609 255 1,864 ‐1,611 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 167 169 171 173 4.82 5.03 5.25 5.43 804 271 1,075 850 281 1,131 899 291 1,190 941 301 1,242 1,906 281 2,187 ‐1,112 1,954 291 2,245 ‐1,114 2,003 301 2,304 ‐1,114 2,051 305 2,356 ‐1,115 Table 37 SSenegal Rice Supp
ply, Utilization and Net Trade, 2013‐2
2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 Area Harvested 148 150 155 158 Yield 3.38 3.57 3.76 3.97 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 500 247 747 537 265 802 583 246 828 625 251 876 1,574 265 1,839 ‐1,092 1,604 246 1,850 ‐1,048 1,653 251 1,904 ‐1,075 1,707 251 1,958 ‐1,082 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Trade (Thousand H
Hectares) 160 1
162 165 (Metric Tons peer Hectares) 4.19 4
4.42 4.62 (Thousand Metric Tons) 671 7
719 762 251 2
252 262 923 9
971 1,023 1,758 252 2,010 ‐1,087 1,8
808 2
262 2,0
070 ‐1,1
100 1,857 271 2,128 ‐1,105 Page50
Table 38 SSierra Leone Rice SSupply, Utilization and Net Trade, 20
013‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 683 694 705 716 (Thousand H
Hectares) 651 6
661 672 (Metric Tons peer Hectares) 1.41 1
1.45 1.5 (Thousand Metric Tons) 916 9
959 1,005 6 8 5 921 9
965 1,012 1.54 1.59 1.64 1.69 1,054 9 1,063 1,104 11 1,115 1,156 12 1,169 1,210 14 1,224 Area Harvested 617 624 632 641 Yield 1.25 1.28 1.32 1.37 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 768 0 768 802 1 803 837 2 840 875 3 879 1,121 1 1,122 ‐353 1,153 2 1,155 ‐353 1,185 3 1,188 ‐349 ‐
1,225 5 1,231 ‐352 1,255 6 1,262 ‐341 1,2
294 8 1,3
302 ‐3
337 1,334 9 1,343 ‐331 1,374 11 1,385 ‐322 1,418 12 1,430 ‐315 1,453 14 1,467 ‐298 1,494 15 1,510 ‐286 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 (Thousand Metric Tons) 376 3
377 378 0 0 0 376 3
377 378 ‐376 ‐3
377 ‐378 378 0 378 ‐378 377 0 377 ‐377 375 0 375 ‐375 386 0 386 ‐386 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Trade Table 39 SSingapore Rice Utiilization and Net T
Trade, 2013‐2023 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 13/14 361 0 361 ‐361 14/15 364 0 364 ‐364 15
5/16 372 0 372 ‐372 ‐
375 0 375 ‐375 Page51
Table 40 SSouth Africa Rice SSupply, Utilization and Net Trade, 20
013‐2023 Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesstic Supply Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 (Thousand Metric Tons) 66 78 91 66 78 91 92 92 95 95 100 100 99 99 22 22 41 41 54 54 56 56 930 41 971 ‐949 919 54 972 ‐931 928 56 984 ‐930 ‐
932 66 998 ‐943 940 78 1,018 ‐952 955 9
91 1,0
046 ‐9
968 961 92 1,053 ‐962 973 95 1,068 ‐976 999 100 1,098 ‐1,004 995 99 1,093 ‐994 1,028 106 1,134 ‐1,035 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 824 825 822 818 Table 41 SSouth Korea Rice SSupply, Utilization and Net Trade, 20
013‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 Area Harvested 843 835 834 829 Yield Production Beginnin
ng Stocks Domesstic Supply 5.02 5.02 5.03 5.04 4,232 722 4,954 4,188 826 5,014 4,191 924 5,115 4,176 986 5,162 (Thousand H
Hectares) 828 8
826 827 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 5.05 5
5.05 5.05 (Thousand Metric Tons) 4,182 4,1
175 4,180 1,050 1,1
117 1,195 5,232 5,2
292 5,375 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 4,539 826 5,365 ‐410 4,499 924 5,423 ‐409 4,538 986 5,523 ‐409 ‐
4,520 1,050 5,570 ‐409 4,524 1,117 5,641 ‐409 4,5
505 1,1
195 5,7
701 ‐4
409 4,487 1,297 5,784 ‐409 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 4,158 1,297 5,454 4,167 1,398 5,565 4,149 1,507 5,655 4,132 1,593 5,725 4,465 1,398 5,863 ‐409 4,467 1,507 5,973 ‐409 4,471 1,593 6,064 ‐409 4,446 1,688 6,134 ‐409 Page52
Table 42 TTaiwan Rice Supplly, Utilization and Net Trade, 2013‐20
023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 260 256 253 252 Area Harvested 279 276 272 268 Yield 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 1,153 377 1,530 1,142 367 1,509 1,127 352 1,480 1,111 332 1,443 (Thousand H
Hectares) 267 2
266 263 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 4.14 4
4.15 4.15 (Thousand Metric Tons) 1,106 1,1
103 1,093 304 2
288 282 1,410 1,3
391 1,375 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 1,286 367 1,653 ‐123 1,279 352 1,632 ‐123 1,271 332 1,603 ‐123 ‐
1,262 304 1,566 ‐123 1,245 288 1,533 ‐123 1,2
232 2
282 1,5
514 ‐1
123 1,226 272 1,498 ‐123 1,221 256 1,477 ‐123 1,216 236 1,451 ‐123 1,211 213 1,424 ‐123 1,206 200 1,406 ‐123 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 1,031 1,041 1,051 1,060 1.17 1.19 1.21 1.23 1,208 59 1,268 1,240 62 1,302 1,272 65 1,337 1,305 67 1,371 1,606 62 1,668 ‐400 1,681 65 1,746 ‐444 1,739 67 1,805 ‐469 1,796 69 1,865 ‐494 4.16 4.18 4.21 4.24 1,082 272 1,354 1,072 256 1,328 1,065 236 1,301 1,070 213 1,283 Table 43 TTanzania Rice Supply, Utilization and
d Net Trade, 2013‐‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 Area Harvested 954 966 978 990 Yield 1.04 1.05 1.07 1.09 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 995 0 995 1,017 26 1,044 1,049 39 1,089 1,081 52 1,133 (Thousand H
Hectares) 1,001 1,0
011 1,022 (Metric Tons peer Hectares) 1.11 1
1.13 1.15 (Thousand Metric Tons) 1,113 1,1
145 1,177 55 57 53 1,166 1,2
200 1,234 1,205 26 1,232 ‐236 1,281 39 1,320 ‐277 1,340 52 1,391 ‐302 ‐
1,378 53 1,431 ‐298 1,426 55 1,481 ‐315 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Trade 1,4
495 57 1,5
552 ‐3
352 1,543 59 1,603 ‐369 Page53
Table 44 TThailand Rice Supp
ply, Utilization and
d Net Trade, 2013‐‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 10,807 10,806 10,791 10,777 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.98 21,254 25,776 47,030 21,280 26,581 47,861 21,307 26,867 48,174 21,362 26,810 48,172 10,867 10,789 10,785 10,788 1.88 1.88 1.9 1.92 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 20,456 12,830 33,286 20,327 14,821 35,147 20,490 16,849 37,339 20,671 18,915 39,586 (Thousand H
Hectares) 10,811 10,8
817 10,813 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 1.92 1
1.94 1.96 (Thousand Metric Tons) 20,801 20,9
955 21,145 20,969 22,9
953 24,551 41,770 43,9
908 45,695 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 10,704 14,821 25,525 7,761 10,651 16,849 27,500 7,648 10,647 18,915 29,562 7,777 10,627 20,969 31,596 7,989 10,626 22,953 33,578 8,192 10,6
646 24,5
551 35,1
197 8,7
711 10,655 25,776 36,431 9,264 10,673 26,581 37,254 9,776 10,700 26,867 37,567 10,294 10,704 26,810 37,514 10,660 10,722 26,478 37,199 10,973 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 101 100 100 100 5.29 5.34 5.4 5.46 532 176 708 537 168 705 542 166 708 547 161 708 815 168 983 ‐275 825 166 991 ‐286 830 161 990 ‐282 833 155 988 ‐280 Area Harvested Yield Table 45 TTurkey Rice Supplyy, Utilization and N
Net Trade, 2013‐20
023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 Area Harvested 102 101 102 101 Yield 4.89 4.93 4.99 5.05 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 500 204 704 501 207 708 507 204 711 513 202 715 777 207 985 ‐280 786 204 990 ‐281 796 202 998 ‐287 ‐
801 196 997 ‐282 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade (Thousand H
Hectares) 101 1
101 101 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 5.11 5
5.17 5.23 (Thousand Metric Tons) 518 5
522 527 196 1
196 193 713 7
718 720 815 196 1,011 ‐298 826 8
1
193 1,0
019 ‐3
301 813 176 989 ‐269 Page54
Table 46 Uruguay Rice Supp
ply, Utilization and
d Net Trade, 2013‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 (Thousand H
Hectares) 181 1
181 180 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 5.91 5
5.96 6 (Thousand Metric Tons) 1,068 1,0
077 1,080 108 1
108 108 1,176 1,1
185 1,188 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 179 178 177 179 6.05 6.09 6.17 6.25 1,082 107 1,189 1,084 107 1,192 1,095 107 1,202 1,116 107 1,223 Area Harvested 181 176 178 180 Yield 5.63 5.74 5.79 5.87 1,018 93 1,111 1,011 111 1,122 1,031 108 1,139 1,053 108 1,161 91 111 202 910 87 108 194 928 87 108 195 944 85 108 193 969 84 108 192 984 84 108 1
1
192 9
993 83 107 191 997 83 107 190 999 82 107 189 1,003 80 107 187 1,015 78 107 185 1,038 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 7,920 7,916 7,908 7,905 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade Table 47 V
Vietnam Rice Supp
ply, Utilization and
d Net Trade, 2013‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 7,867 7,897 7,914 7,926 3.54 3.55 3.58 3.6 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 27,881 2,326 30,207 27,994 2,430 30,423 28,326 2,419 30,745 28,503 2,506 31,009 (Thousand H
Hectares) 7,930 7,9
927 7,925 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 3.63 3
3.66 3.69 (Thousand Metric Tons) 28,762 29,0
018 29,267 2,550 2,6
640 2,680 31,311 31,6
658 31,947 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 20,661 2,430 23,091 7,116 20,745 2,419 23,164 7,259 20,730 2,506 23,236 7,509 20,951 2,550 23,500 7,509 21,034 2,640 23,674 7,637 Area Harvested Yield 21,2
240 2,6
680 23,9
920 7,7
738 21,413 2,624 24,037 7,911 3.72 3.75 3.78 3.81 29,461 2,624 32,085 29,663 2,663 32,326 29,863 2,652 32,515 30,099 2,588 32,687 21,461 2,663 24,123 7,962 21,584 2,652 24,236 8,090 21,750 2,588 24,338 8,176 21,883 2,578 24,461 8,225 Page55
Table 48 A
Africa Total Rice Supply, Utilization a
and Net Trade, 201
13‐2023 Area Harvested Yield Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 10,754 10,875 11,137 11,331 1.76 1.79 1.82 1.84 18,908 2,489 21,397 19,424 2,672 22,096 20,217 2,885 23,102 20,845 3,110 23,954 31,402 2,672 34,073 ‐12,677 31,869 2,885 34,754 ‐12,658 32,747 3,110 35,856 ‐12,754 33,675 3,238 36,912 ‐12,958 17/18 18//19 19/20 (Thousand H
Hectares) 11,534 11,7
723 11,917 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 1.9 1.93 1.87 (Thousand Metric Tons) 21,524 22,2
236 22,953 3,238 3,2
269 3,286 24,762 25,5
504 26,240 34,689 3,269 37,958 ‐13,196 36,0
013 3,2
286 39,3
300 ‐13,7
795 37,046 3,263 40,310 ‐14,070 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 12,087 12,265 12,453 12,604 1.96 1.99 2.02 2.06 23,709 3,263 26,973 24,400 3,256 27,656 25,194 3,287 28,481 25,939 3,313 29,252 38,267 3,256 41,523 ‐14,550 39,418 3,287 42,705 ‐15,049 40,432 3,313 43,745 ‐15,264 41,589 3,307 44,896 ‐15,644 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 9,756 9,916 10,085 10,217 1.99 2.02 2.06 2.09 19,462 3,149 22,611 20,076 3,138 23,214 20,748 3,164 23,912 21,366 3,187 24,553 30,549 3,138 33,686 ‐11,076 31,490 3,164 34,654 ‐11,440 32,306 3,187 35,493 ‐11,581 33,270 3,177 36,447 ‐11,894 Table 49 A
African Aggregate of Countries with Individual AGRM Models – Rice Sup
pply, Utilization, an
nd Net Trade, 20133‐2023 Area Harvested 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 8,505 8,634 8,885 9,068 1.79 1.82 1.85 1.88 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 15,202 2,437 17,639 15,716 2,598 18,314 16,456 2,801 19,257 17,048 3,012 20,060 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 24,985 2,598 27,583 ‐9,944 25,396 2,801 28,197 ‐9,883 26,134 3,012 29,147 ‐9,890 26,856 3,137 29,993 ‐9,933 Yield 17/18 18//19 19/20 (Thousand H
Hectares) 9,254 9,4
426 9,603 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 1.91 1
1.94 1.96 (Thousand Metric Tons) 17,651 18,2
255 18,862 3,137 3,1
163 3,176 20,787 21,4
418 22,038 27,637 3,163 30,800 ‐10,013 28,7
730 3,1
176 31,9
907 ‐10,4
489 29,544 3,149 32,693 ‐10,655 Page56
Table 50 A
African Aggregate of Other Countrie
es Modeled as a Grroup in AGRM – Rice Supply, Utilization and Net Tradee, 2013‐2023 Area Harvested Yield Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 2,248 2,240 2,251 2,264 1.65 1.66 1.67 1.68 3,706 52 3,758 3,709 73 3,782 3,761 84 3,845 3,797 97 3,894 6,417 73 6,490 ‐2,732 6,473 84 6,558 ‐2,775 6,612 97 6,710 ‐2,864 6,819 101 6,920 ‐3,025 17/18 18//19 19/20 (Thousand H
Hectares) 2,280 2,2
297 2,314 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 1.7 1
1.73 1.77 (Thousand Metric Tons) 3,874 3,9
981 4,091 101 1
106 110 3,975 4,0
086 4,202 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 2,331 2,349 2,368 2,387 1.82 1.84 1.88 1.92 4,248 114 4,362 4,324 118 4,442 4,446 122 4,568 4,573 126 4,699 7,052 106 7,158 ‐3,183 7,2
283 1
110 7,3
393 ‐3,3
306 7,502 114 7,616 ‐3,415 7,718 118 7,837 ‐3,475 7,928 122 8,050 ‐3,608 8,125 126 8,251 ‐3,683 8,319 130 8,449 ‐3,750 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 6,630 6,637 6,647 6,659 Table 51 W
Western Hemisphere Rice Supply, Utilization and Net Trade, 2013‐2023
13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 6,415 6,488 6,517 6,535 3.7 3.77 3.8 3.84 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 23,717 3,462 27,179 24,427 3,546 27,973 24,766 3,737 28,503 25,072 3,983 29,055 (Thousand H
Hectares) 6,557 6,5
581 6,611 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 3.9 3.92 3.87 (Thousand Metric Tons) 25,404 25,6
661 25,944 4,163 4,2
204 4,249 29,567 29,8
865 30,193 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 22,891 3,546 26,436 742 23,067 3,737 26,804 1,169 23,557 3,983 27,540 964 24,045 4,163 28,208 847 24,474 4,204 28,678 889 Area Harvested Yield 24,8
862 4,2
249 29,1
111 7
755 25,256 4,309 29,564 629 3.95 3.98 4.01 4.04 26,210 4,309 30,519 26,403 4,371 30,773 26,651 4,381 31,031 26,873 4,323 31,196 25,516 4,371 29,887 632 25,736 4,381 30,116 657 26,022 4,323 30,345 686 26,133 4,315 30,448 748 Page57
Table 52 W
Western Hemisphere Aggregate of C
Countries with Individual AGRM Mod
dels – Rice Supply,, Utilization and Neet Trade, 2013‐202
23 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 4,310 4,380 4,406 4,432 4.1 4.15 4.18 4.21 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 17,675 2,369 20,044 18,176 2,341 20,517 18,437 2,527 20,964 18,653 2,725 21,379 (Thousand H
Hectares) 4,455 4,4
474 4,496 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 4.24 4
4.26 4.29 (Thousand Metric Tons) 18,880 19,0
075 19,279 2,870 2,8
876 2,896 21,750 21,9
951 22,175 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 15,115 2,341 17,455 2,589 15,265 2,527 17,792 2,724 15,519 2,725 18,245 2,719 15,831 2,870 18,701 2,678 16,085 2,876 18,962 2,789 Area Harvested Yield 16,3
349 2,8
896 19,2
245 2,7
706 16,566 2,921 19,486 2,689 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 4,509 4,509 4,510 4,515 4.31 4.32 4.34 4.36 19,425 2,921 22,345 19,495 2,955 22,450 19,569 2,943 22,512 19,666 2,862 22,528 16,690 2,955 19,646 2,700 16,798 2,943 19,741 2,710 16,969 2,862 19,832 2,680 16,991 2,837 19,828 2,701 Table 53 W
Western Hemisphere Aggregate of O
Other Countries Modeled as a Group
p in AGRM – Rice SSupply, Utilization and Net Trade, 20
013‐2023 Area Harvested Yield Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 2,105 2,108 2,111 2,104 2.87 2.97 3 3.05 6,041 1,093 7,134 6,251 1,205 7,457 6,329 1,210 7,539 6,419 1,257 7,677 7,776 1,205 8,981 ‐1,847 7,802 1,210 9,012 ‐1,556 8,037 1,257 9,295 ‐1,755 8,214 1,293 9,507 ‐1,830 17/18 18//19 19/20 (Thousand H
Hectares) 2,103 2,1
107 2,115 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 3.1 3
3.13 3.15 (Thousand Metric Tons) 6,524 6,5
587 6,665 1,293 1,3
328 1,353 7,817 7,9
914 8,018 8,388 1,328 9,716 ‐1,899 8,5
513 1,3
353 9,8
865 ‐1,9
951 8,690 1,388 10,078 ‐2,060 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 2,121 2,128 2,136 2,144 3.2 3.25 3.32 3.36 6,786 1,388 8,174 6,908 1,415 8,323 7,082 1,438 8,519 7,208 1,461 8,668 8,826 1,415 10,241 ‐2,068 8,938 1,438 10,375 ‐2,052 9,053 1,461 10,513 ‐1,994 9,142 1,478 10,621 ‐1,953 Page58
Table 54 A
Asian Rice Supply,, Utilization and Ne
et Trade, 2013‐202
23 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 142,469 142,306 142,701 142,768 3 3.06 3.08 3.11 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 427,525 99,955 527,480 434,814 99,141 533,955 439,863 102,688 542,551 443,967 107,293 551,260 (Thousand H
Hectares) 142,803 142,8
837 142,738 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 3.13 3
3.17 3.19 (Thousand Metric Tons) 447,665 452,4
421 455,095 111,959 116,5
589 121,483 559,624 569,0
010 576,578 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 415,314 99,141 514,454 13,026 418,741 102,688 521,429 12,526 422,438 107,293 529,731 12,820 426,188 111,959 538,147 13,113 429,734 116,589 546,323 13,301 Area Harvested Yield 433,4
477 121,4
483 554,9
960 14,0
050 436,873 125,261 562,135 14,444 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 142,722 142,756 142,596 142,565 3.21 3.23 3.25 3.29 458,492 125,261 583,754 461,776 129,066 590,842 463,836 132,331 596,167 4
468,409 134,385 6
602,794 439,741 129,066 568,806 14,947 443,103 132,331 575,434 15,408 446,160 134,385 580,545 15,622 4
448,984 137,785 5
586,769 16,024 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 138,628 138,655 138,488 138,450 Table 55 A
Asian Aggregate o
of Countries with In
ndividual Models in AGRM – Rice Supply, Utilization an
nd Net Trade, 20133‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 138,458 138,268 138,647 138,703 3.02 3.08 3.1 3.13 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 418,070 99,153 517,223 425,256 98,407 523,663 430,231 101,951 532,183 434,274 106,556 540,830 (Thousand H
Hectares) 138,730 138,7
757 138,651 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 3.16 3
3.19 3.21 (Thousand Metric Tons) 437,917 442,6
620 445,243 111,218 115,8
845 120,736 549,135 558,4
465 565,979 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 403,158 98,407 501,565 15,658 406,432 101,951 508,383 15,280 410,109 106,556 516,665 15,518 413,645 111,218 524,863 15,967 417,059 115,845 532,904 16,231 Area Harvested Yield 420,6
635 120,7
736 541,3
371 17,0
094 423,877 124,511 548,388 17,591 3.24 3.26 3.28 3.31 448,590 124,511 573,101 451,824 128,313 580,137 453,835 131,576 585,411 4
458,360 133,626 5
591,985 426,621 128,313 554,934 18,167 429,818 131,576 561,394 18,744 432,701 133,626 566,326 19,085 4
435,398 137,024 5
572,423 19,563 Page59
Table 56 A
Asian Aggregate o
of Other Countries Modeled as a Group in AGRM – Rice
e Supply, Utilizatio
on and Net Trade, 22013‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 4,094 4,101 4,107 4,114 4,011 4,039 4,054 4,064 2.36 2.37 2.38 2.39 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 9,455 802 10,257 9,558 734 10,292 9,632 737 10,369 9,693 737 10,430 (Thousand H
Hectares) 4,072 4,0
080 4,087 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 2.4 2.41 2.39 (Thousand Metric Tons) 9,748 9,8
801 9,852 741 7
744 747 10,490 10,5
545 10,599 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 12,155 734 12,889 ‐2,632 12,309 737 13,046 ‐2,754 12,329 737 13,066 ‐2,697 12,542 741 13,284 ‐2,854 12,675 744 13,419 ‐2,930 12,8
842 7
747 13,5
589 ‐3,0
044 12,997 750 13,747 ‐3,148 13,120 752 13,872 ‐3,220 13,285 755 14,041 ‐3,336 13,460 759 14,219 ‐3,462 13,585 761 14,347 ‐3,539 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 695 697 699 699 4.2 4.25 4.31 4.33 2,920 755 3,674 2,965 771 3,737 3,011 811 3,822 3,028 872 3,900 4,284 771 5,055 ‐1,381 4,320 811 5,131 ‐1,395 4,358 872 5,230 ‐1,409 4,394 912 5,306 ‐1,406 Area Harvested Yield 2.42 2.43 2.43 2.44 9,903 750 10,652 9,952 752 10,704 10,001 755 10,756 10,049 759 10,808 Table 57 European Total Ricce Supply, Utilizatiion and Net Trade,, 2013‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 Area Harvested 677 679 683 686 Yield 3.84 3.88 3.93 3.99 2,601 1,169 3,769 2,637 1,075 3,712 2,686 959 3,645 2,736 862 3,598 4,125 1,075 5,201 ‐1,431 4,148 959 5,107 ‐1,395 4,170 862 5,032 ‐1,386 4,208 795 5,003 ‐1,405 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade (Thousand H
Hectares) 688 6
691 693 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 4.1 4.15 4.05 (Thousand Metric Tons) 2,786 2,8
830 2,874 795 7
757 746 3,582 3,5
586 3,620 4,220 757 4,976 ‐1,395 4,2
239 7
746 4,9
985 ‐1,3
399 4,263 755 5,017 ‐1,397 Page60
Table 58 European Aggrega
ate of Countries Modeled Individually in AGRM – Rice SSupply, Utilization
n and Net Trade, 20013‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 Area Harvested 456 458 461 464 Yield 4.62 4.67 4.74 4.81 2,104 1,055 3,159 2,138 903 3,041 2,185 786 2,971 2,234 689 2,923 3,389 903 4,291 ‐1,132 3,410 786 4,196 ‐1,155 3,429 689 4,118 ‐1,147 3,451 619 4,071 ‐1,148 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 17/18 18//19 19/20 (Thousand H
Hectares) 468 4
471 473 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 4.88 4
4.94 5.01 (Thousand Metric Tons) 2,283 2,3
326 2,370 619 5
581 568 2,902 2,9
907 2,938 3,463 581 4,044 ‐1,142 3,4
472 5
568 4,0
041 ‐1,1
134 3,490 576 4,066 ‐1,128 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 476 478 481 481 5.08 5.14 5.21 5.25 2,416 576 2,991 2,461 591 3,052 2,506 627 3,133 2,523 684 3,208 3,504 591 4,095 ‐1,104 3,517 627 4,145 ‐1,092 3,534 684 4,218 ‐1,085 3,546 721 4,267 ‐1,059 Table 59 European Aggrega
ate of Other Countries Modeled as a Group in AGRM ‐ Rice Supply, Utilization and Net Tradde, 2013‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 Area Harvested 222 221 222 221 Yield 2.24 2.25 2.26 2.27 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 497 114 611 498 173 671 501 173 674 502 173 676 737 173 909 ‐299 738 173 911 ‐241 740 173 914 ‐239 ‐
756 176 932 ‐257 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 17/18 18//19 19/20 (Thousand H
Hectares) 221 2
220 220 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 2.28 2
2.29 2.29 (Thousand Metric Tons) 503 5
504 504 176 1
176 178 679 6
680 682 756 176 933 ‐253 767 7
1
178 9
945 ‐2
265 772 179 951 ‐269 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 219 219 218 218 2.3 2.31 2.31 2.32 504 179 683 504 180 684 505 184 688 505 187 692 780 180 960 ‐277 803 184 986 ‐302 825 187 1,012 ‐324 848 191 1,039 ‐347 Page61
Table 60 O
Oceania Total Rice
e Supply, Utilizatio
on and Net Trade, 2
2013‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 Area Harvested 102 109 115 116 Yield 7.02 7.01 7 7 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 720 125 845 765 93 858 803 93 897 813 121 934 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 639 93 731 114 640 93 734 124 656 121 777 120 666 130 796 138 17/18 18//19 19/20 (Thousand H
Hectares) 117 1
117 117 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 7.01 7
7.02 7.02 (Thousand Metric Tons) 821 8
823 823 130 1
137 140 950 9
960 963 682 137 819 131 699 6
1
140 8
839 1
121 713 133 846 117 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 117 117 117 117 7.04 7.06 7.08 7.08 822 133 955 829 138 967 831 131 963 831 122 954 727 138 865 90 741 131 872 95 758 122 881 82 777 144 921 33 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 114 115 115 115 7.07 7
7.1 7.11 7.11 808 126 934 816 131 947 817 124 942 817 115 932 362 131 493 441 363 124 487 459 368 115 483 458 375 136 511 421 Table 61 O
Oceania Aggregate
e of Countries Mod
deled individually in AGRM – Rice Su
upply, Utilization aand Net Trade, 20113‐2023 Area Harvested 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 99 106 112 114 Yield 7.07 7.05 7.04 7.03 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 702 120 822 750 87 838 789 88 877 800 115 915 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 362 87 449 373 352 88 439 398 355 115 470 407 353 124 477 438 17/18 18//19 19/20 (Thousand H
Hectares) 115 1
115 115 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 7.04 7
7.05 7.05 (Thousand Metric Tons) 807 8
810 809 124 1
131 134 931 9
940 943 355 131 486 445 359 3
1
134 4
493 4
447 360 126 487 456 Page62
Table 62 O
Oceania Aggregate
e of Other Countries Modeled as a G
Group in AGRM – R
Rice Supply, Utilizaation, and Net Tradde, 2013‐2023 Area Harvested Yield Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 (Thousand H
Hectares) 2 2 2 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 5.53 5
5.56 5.58 (Thousand Metric Tons) 14 14 14 6 7 6 20 20 20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 2 2 2 2 5.58 5
5.6 5.62 5.63 14 7 21 14 7 21 14 7 21 14 7 21 3 3 3 2 5.45 5.47 5.48 5.51 18 5 23 15 5 20 14 6 19 14 6 20 277 5 282 ‐259 289 6 294 ‐274 301 6 307 ‐287 ‐
314 6 320 ‐300 327 6 333 ‐313 340 3
7 3
346 ‐3
326 352 7 359 ‐339 365 7 372 ‐352 378 7 385 ‐364 390 7 397 ‐376 402 8 410 ‐388 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 162,251 162,472 162,511 162,644 Table 63 W
World Total Rice SSupply, Utilization and Net Trade, 20
013‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 160,418 160,457 161,152 161,436 2.95 3 3.03 3.06 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 473,470 107,200 580,669 482,068 106,526 588,594 488,336 110,363 598,698 493,434 115,368 608,802 (Thousand H
Hectares) 161,700 161,9
949 162,076 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 3.08 3
3.11 3.13 (Thousand Metric Tons) 498,201 503,9
971 507,689 120,285 124,9
955 129,905 618,486 628,9
926 637,594 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Residuaal 474,370 106,526 580,896 ‐227 478,466 110,363 588,829 ‐235 483,566 115,368 598,935 ‐236 ‐
488,781 120,285 609,066 ‐264 493,799 124,955 618,755 ‐269 Area Harvested Yield 499,2
290 129,9
905 629,1
195 ‐2
268 504,151 133,721 637,871 ‐277 3.16 3.18 3.2 3.23 512,154 133,721 645,874 516,374 137,602 653,975 519,523 140,941 660,464 5
525,080 143,015 6
668,095 508,534 137,602 646,136 ‐262 513,317 140,941 654,258 ‐283 517,731 143,015 660,746 ‐282 5
521,877 146,464 6
668,341 ‐245 Page63
Table 64 W
World Aggregate o
of Countries Mode
eled individually in
n AGRM – Rice Supply, Utilization and
d Net Trade, 2013‐‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 151,828 151,847 152,512 152,781 2.99 3.04 3.07 3.1 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 453,753 105,134 558,887 462,037 104,336 566,372 468,099 108,153 576,251 473,008 113,097 586,106 (Thousand H
Hectares) 153,021 153,2
243 153,338 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 3.12 3
3.15 3.17 (Thousand Metric Tons) 477,538 483,0
085 486,562 117,968 122,5
596 127,511 595,505 605,6
681 614,073 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 447,008 104,336 551,344 7,543 450,855 108,153 559,007 7,365 455,547 113,097 568,644 7,607 460,136 117,968 578,104 8,002 464,600 122,596 587,196 8,310 Area Harvested Yield 469,5
546 127,5
511 597,0
057 8,6
624 473,837 131,283 605,120 8,953 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 153,484 153,673 153,679 153,778 3.2 3.22 3.24 3.27 490,700 131,283 621,983 494,672 135,129 629,800 497,475 138,435 635,910 5
502,732 140,475 6
643,207 477,725 135,129 612,854 9,129 481,986 138,435 620,420 9,380 485,878 140,475 626,353 9,557 4
489,580 143,895 6
633,475 9,731 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 8,767 8,799 8,832 8,866 Table 65 W
World Aggregate o
of Other Countriess Modeled as a Gro
oup in AGRM – Rice Supply, Utilizatio
on and Net Trade, 2013‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 8,589 8,611 8,640 8,655 2.3 2.33 2.34 2.36 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 19,717 2,066 21,782 20,031 2,190 22,221 20,237 2,210 22,447 20,425 2,271 22,696 (Thousand H
Hectares) 8,678 8,7
706 8,737 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 2.4 2.42 2.38 (Thousand Metric Tons) 20,663 20,8
886 21,127 2,317 2,3
359 2,394 22,980 23,2
245 23,521 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 27,361 2,190 29,552 ‐7,769 27,611 2,210 29,821 ‐7,600 28,020 2,271 30,290 ‐7,843 28,645 2,317 30,962 ‐8,266 29,199 2,359 31,559 ‐8,578 Area Harvested Yield 29,7
743 2,3
394 32,1
137 ‐8,8
892 30,314 2,438 32,751 ‐9,231 2.45 2.47 2.5 2.52 21,454 2,438 23,891 21,702 2,473 24,175 22,047 2,507 24,554 22,348 2,541 24,889 30,809 2,473 33,282 ‐9,390 31,331 2,507 33,838 ‐9,663 31,853 2,541 34,393 ‐9,839 32,297 2,569 34,865 ‐9,977 Page64
Table 66 ECOWAS Total Ricce Supply, Utilizatio
on and Net Trade, 2013‐2023 13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 6,336 6,484 6,715 6,879 1.36 1.41 1.46 1.5 Production ng Stocks Beginnin
Domesstic Supply 8,607 1,876 10,483 9,159 1,681 10,840 9,781 1,680 11,460 10,305 1,716 12,021 (Thousand H
Hectares) 7,051 7,2
203 7,360 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) 1.54 1
1.58 1.62 (Thousand Metric Tons) 10,863 11,3
399 11,944 1,754 1,7
793 1,850 12,618 13,1
193 13,794 Consumption Ending SStocks Domesstic Use Net Traade 16,889 1,681 16,889 ‐6,407 17,284 1,680 17,284 ‐6,444 17,798 1,716 17,798 ‐6,338 18,351 1,754 18,351 ‐6,330 18,953 1,793 18,953 ‐6,335 Area Harvested Yield 19,7
772 1,8
850 21,6
621 ‐8,4
429 20,412 1,886 22,298 ‐8,504 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 7,493 7,633 7,784 7,890 1.66 1
1.7 1.74 1.78 12,442 1,886 14,327 12,956 1,924 14,880 13,541 1,965 15,505 14,021 1,992 16,014 21,146 1,924 23,070 ‐8,742 21,877 1,965 23,842 ‐8,962 22,516 1,992 24,508 ‐9,003 23,215 2,024 25,239 ‐9,225 Page65
Table 67 Projected Rice Millled Yields Per Hecctare for the World
d and Selected Cou
untries, 2013‐2023
13/14 14/15 15
5/16 16/17 17/18 18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 (Metric Tons p
per Hectare) Argentin
na
4.20
4.34
4.49
4.56
4.63
4
4.67
4.71
4.76
4..80
4.85
4.89
Australiia
7.07
7.05
7.04
7.03
7.04
7
7.05
7.05
7.07
7..10
7.11
7.11
Banglad
desh
2.92
2.92
2.92
2.94
2.97
3
3.00
3.02
3.05
3..08
3.09
3.12
Brazil
3.39
3.40
3.42
3.43
3.46
3
3.48
3.49
3.50
3..51
3.52
3.53
Brunei Darussalam
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0
0.20
0.20
0.20
0..20
0.20
0.20
Cambodia
1.65
1.70
1.78
1.87
1.91
2
2.00
2.06
2.12
2..17
2.23
2.27
Camero
oon
0.90
0.97
1.07
1.08
1.08
1
1.09
1.08
1.08
1..09
1.09
1.09
People''s Republic of China
4.67
4.80
4.85
4.88
4.92
4
4.95
4.99
5.01
5..04
5.07
5.10
Colomb
bia
2.99
3.00
3.01
3.02
3.04
3
3.05
3.07
3.08
3..10
3.11
3.12
Egypt
6.48
6.69
6.77
6.80
6.83
6
6.86
6.88
6.94
7..00
7.06
7.12
European Union-27
4.62
4.67
4.74
4.81
4.88
4
4.94
5.01
5.08
5..14
5.21
5.25
Ghana
1.69
1.72
1.75
1.80
1.85
1
1.89
1.94
1.96
2..00
2.04
2.08
Guinea
1.27
1.34
1.40
1.46
1.50
1
1.54
1.58
1.62
1..65
1.69
1.72
India
2.37
2.45
2.48
2.51
2.54
2
2.58
2.60
2.63
2..66
2.67
2.74
Indonessia
3.10
3.14
3.17
3.21
3.26
3
3.29
3.31
3.34
3..36
3.37
3.39
Iran
2.81
2.83
2.86
2.88
2.91
2
2.93
2.96
2.98
3..01
3.03
3.06
Iraq
2.17
2.17
2.19
2.20
2.22
2
2.23
2.24
2.25
2..27
2.28
2.29
Cote d'IIvoire
1.23
1.33
1.43
1.47
1.51
1
1.55
1.59
1.63
1..67
1.71
1.75
Japan
4.80
4.81
4.81
4.80
4.81
4
4.80
4.80
4.80
4..80
4.79
4.79
Kenya
1.80
1.82
1.83
1.84
1.84
1
1.85
1.86
1.86
1..87
1.87
1.87
Lao PD
DR
1.77
1.80
1.83
1.87
1.93
1
1.98
2.02
2.07
2..11
2.15
2.17
Liberia
0.78
0.79
0.80
0.80
0.81
0
0.82
0.83
0.84
0..85
0.85
0.86
Malaysiia
2.58
2.58
2.59
2.62
2.64
2
2.66
2.69
2.73
2..75
2.79
2.82
Mali
2.19
2.23
2.28
2.35
2.41
2
2.47
2.54
2.59
2..65
2.71
2.77
Mexico
3.74
3.71
3.77
3.81
3.78
3
3.73
3.75
3.73
3..73
3.77
3.79
Mozambique
0.94
0.95
0.97
0.99
1.01
1
1.03
1.04
1.05
1..07
1.09
1.11
Myanmar (Burma)
1.69
1.71
1.73
1.74
1.76
1
1.78
1.80
1.81
1..83
1.85
1.87
Nigeria
1.16
1.22
1.24
1.27
1.31
1
1.34
1.37
1.41
1..44
1.48
1.51
Pakista
an
2.34
2.36
2.36
2.36
2.36
2
2.37
2.37
2.37
2..37
2.38
2.39
Philippines
2.47
2.48
2.51
2.56
2.62
2
2.67
2.71
2.77
2..83
2.88
2.93
Page66
Table 67
7 Projected Rice M
Milled Yields Per He
ectare for the World and Selected Co
ountries, 2013‐2023, continued Senega
al
3.38
3.57
3.76
3.97
4.19
4
4.42
4.62
4.82
5..03
5.25
5.43
Sierra L
Leone
1.25
1.28
1.32
1.37
1.41
1
1.45
1.50
1.54
1..59
1.64
1.69
South K
Korea
5.02
5.02
5.03
5.04
5.05
5
5.05
5.05
5.05
5..05
5.05
5.05
Taiwan
4.14
4.14
4.14
4.14
4.14
4
4.15
4.15
4.16
4..18
4.21
4.24
Tanzan
nia
1.04
1.05
1.07
1.09
1.11
1
1.13
1.15
1.17
1..19
1.21
1.23
Thailand
1.88
1.88
1.90
1.92
1.92
1
1.94
1.96
1.97
1..97
1.97
1.98
Turkey
4.89
4.93
4.99
5.05
5.11
5
5.17
5.23
5.29
5..34
5.40
5.46
United S
States
6.02
6.05
6.08
6.11
6.13
6
6.15
6.17
6.20
6..23
6.25
6.28
Urugua
ay
5.63
5.74
5.79
5.87
5.91
5
5.96
6.00
6.05
6..09
6.17
6.25
Vietnam
m
3.54
3.55
3.58
3.60
3.63
3
3.66
3.69
3.72
3..75
3.78
3.81
Rest of World
2.30
2.33
2.34
2.36
2.38
2
2.40
2.42
2.45
2..47
2.50
2.52
World
2.95
3.00
3.03
3.06
3.08
3
3.11
3.13
3.16
3..18
3.20
3.23
18//19 19/20 20/21 21//22 22/23 23/24 10.4 14.3 228.2 39.1 121.4 253.2 34.1 12.6 96.5 35.5 92.9 48.1 6.8 42.5 10.4 14.2 228.1 39.1 122.8 254.2 35 12.7 96 35.1 93.4 48.1 6.8 43.6 10
0.4 14
4.1 228
8.2 39
9.2 123
3.6 255
5.2 34
4.7 12
2.8 95
5.9 34
4.8 95
5.2 47
7.7 6
6.8 44
4.5 10.4 14.1 228.4 39.1 124.9 256.1 34.8 12.9 95.6 34.7 94.5 47.3 6.8 45.3 10.4 14.2 228.8 39.2 125.8 256.9 33.9 13.1 95.4 34.5 95.2 47.9 6.8 46.4 Table 68 Projected Per Capita Rice Utilization
n for the World and
d Selected Countries, 2013‐2023 Argenttina Austraalia Banglaadesh Brazil Bruneii Darussalam Cambo
odia Camerroon Canada Peoplee's Republic of Chin
na Colombia Cote d
d'Ivoire Egypt Europeean Union‐27 Ghanaa 13/14 10.4 15.5 221.4 39.9 115.1 251.5 34 10.2 98.9 32 92.1 49.8 6.7 35.7 14/15 10.4 14.9 222.2 39.1 116.2 251.7 33.1 10.6 98.3 32.2 93 48.8 6.7 36.4 15
5/16 10.4 14.8 224.4 39 117.5 252 33.5 11.7 98 32.9 91.5 48.4 6.7 37.2 16/17 10.4 14.6 225.2 39.1 117.7 252.3 33.4 12 97.5 34.6 91.2 48.6 6.7 38 17/18 10.4 14.5 226.8 39 118.8 252.8 33.8 12.2 97.1 35.2 91.9 48.5 6.7 39.1 (Kilograams) 1
10.4 1
14.5 22
28.2 3
39.1 12
21.2 2
253 3
33.7 1
12.4 9
96.7 3
35.7 9
93.1 4
48.5 6.7 4
41.4 Page67
Table 68
8 Projected Per Capita Rice Utilizatio
on, World and Sele
ected Countries, 20
013‐2023, continue
ed
Guineaa China ‐‐ Hong Kong India Indoneesia Iran Iraq Japan Kenya Lao PD
DR Liberiaa Malayssia Mali Mexico
o Mozam
mbique Myanm
mar (Burma) Nigeriaa Pakistaan Philipp
pines Saudi A
Arabia Senegaal Sierra Leone Singap
pore South Africa South Korea Taiwan
n Tanzan
nia Thailan
nd Turkeyy United
d States Uruguaay Vietnam Rest off World World 132.1 60.8 75.9 160.1 43.6 44.7 64.1 11.3 226.5 97.1 94.2 100.1 7.1 28.9 165.4 34.9 14.4 130.9 43.9 111.9 184 66.8 18.4 92.1 55.4 24.5 159.7 10.4 12.1 26.7 225.4 22.6 66 132.9 61.2 76.2 159.4 43.8 44.2 63.7 11.4 226.9 100 94.2 101.4 7.2 26.7 164.1 34.1 14.8 130.7 44.5 111.1 185.8 65.9 18.1 90.9 54.9 25.4 158.4 10.4 12.5 25.3 224.2 22.5 65.8 131.6 61.2 76.6 159.5 43.6 44.8 62.8 12.5 227.2 100.8 93.8 101.2 7.3 27.6 163 34.2 15 129.5 45.2 111.6 187.4 66.3 18.2 91.2 54.4 25.8 158 10.4 12.7 25.5 222 22.6 65.8 132.2 61.6 77 158.8 44.2 45.3 62.1 12.7 228.5 104.7 94.5 103 7.3 27.4 161.7 34 15.2 129 45.9 112.3 190.2 65.5 18.1 90.4 54 25.9 157.3 10.3 12.9 24.7 222.4 22.8 65.8 132.7 61.8 77.5 158.5 44.2 45.9 61.8 13.2 228.8 106.3 94.6 104.1 7.4 27.5 161.4 33.9 15.2 128 46.3 112.8 191.3 64.8 18.2 90.1 53.2 26.2 157.1 10.4 13.2 24.4 221.5 23 65.7 1
134 62.1 6
7
77.7 15
58.7 4
44.5 4
46.2 6
61.6 1
14.3 22
29.4 1
109 9
94.7 10
06.3 7.5 2
28.5 16
62.1 3
34.4 1
15.3 12
27.6 4
46.6 11
13.2 19
93.7 64 1
18.4 8
89.4 5
52.5 2
26.8 15
57.2 1
10.5 1
13.4 2
24.3 22
21.9 2
23.1 6
65.8 134.7 62.3 78.1 158.4 44.8 46.6 61.2 15 228.9 109.5 95.1 107.6 7.6 28.6 162.3 34.5 15.4 127 47 113.5 196.1 63.2 18.4 88.7 52.2 27 157.1 10.2 13.7 24 222.1 23.3 65.8 135.8 62.6 78.5 158.2 44.6 46.7 60.9 15.7 228.8 110.8 95.3 108.6 7.6 29.7 162.9 34.8 15.3 126.7 47.2 113.8 198.4 62.4 18.5 87.9 51.9 27.4 157.3 10.1 13.7 23.8 221.1 23.4 65.7 137 62
2.8 78
8.8 157
7.9 44
4.9 46
6.9 60
0.8 16
6.1 230 112
2.1 95
5.6 109
9.3 7
7.7 30
0.5 162
2.6 35 15
5.4 126 47
7.5 114 201
1.1 61
1.5 18
8.9 87
7.7 51
1.6 28 157
7.6 10
0.2 13
3.6 23
3.4 221 23
3.6 65
5.7 136.8 63 79.1 157.7 45.1 47.1 60.6 16.3 229.9 111.5 95.7 110.6 7.7 31.7 161.7 35.1 15.4 125.5 47.7 114.2 202.5 60.7 18.7 87.5 51.3 28.3 157.6 10.2 13.8 22.8 221.3 38 65.7 Page68
137.3 64.4 79.3 157.3 45 47.2 60.1 16.5 231.5 113.6 95.8 111.7 7.7 32 162.7 35.1 15.4 124.9 48 114.4 204.7 61.9 19.2 86.7 51 28.5 157.8 10.1 13.4 22.2 221.5 23.8 65.6 Estimates of th
he Stocchasticc Baseeline A
Analysiis Chartss of Selected Price and TTrade Vaariables SShowingg the 10tth and 90th Percentile
es, the SStochastiic Mean, and thee C.V. off Future Probable Distrributions (100 O
Outcomees from R
Random Draws) Paage69
Figure 17 Sttochastic Proje
ection of Long Grain Rice International Refference Price
Figure 18 Sttochastic Proje
ection of U.S. LLong Grain Rice FOB Export PPrice. Page70
Figure 19 Sttochastic Proje
ection Comparrisons of Intern
national Referrence and U.S. Long Grain Rice Export Pricees. Figure 20 Sttochastic Proje
ection of Mediium Grain Rice
e Price, FOB Caalifornia. Page71
Figure 21 Sttochastic Proje
ection of U.S. SSeason Averagge All Rice Farm
m Price. Figure 22 Sttochastic Proje
ection of U.S. LLong Grain Ave
erage Farm Priice. Page72
Figure 23 Sttochastic Proje
ection of U.S. M
Medium Grain
n Average Farm
m Price. Figure 24 Sttochastic Proje
ection of World Rice Net Trade. Page73
Figure 25 Sttochastic Proje
ection of World Rice Area Haarvested. Figure 26 Sttochastic Proje
ection of World Rice Milled P
Production. Page74
Figure 27 Sttochastic Proje
ection of World Total Rice Co
onsumption.
Figure 28 Sttochastic Proje
ection of World Rice Ending Stocks. Page75
Figure 29 Sttochastic Proje
ections of Thaiiland Net Rice Exports. Figure 30 Sttochastic Proje
ection of Thailaand Rice Endin
ng Stocks. Page76
Figure 31 Sttochastic Proje
ections of Vietnam Net Rice Exports. Figure 32 Sttochastic Proje
ections of Indiaa Net Rice Exp
ports. Page77
Figure 33 Sttochastic Proje
ection of India Rice Ending Sttocks. Figure 34 Sttochastic Proje
ections of U.S. Net Rice Expo
orts Page78
Figure 35 Sttochastic Proje
ections of Philiippine Net Rice
e Imports. ections of Indo
onesia Net Rice
e Imports. Figure 36 Sttochastic Proje
Page79
Figure 37 Sttochastic Proje
ections of Peop
ple’s Republic of China Net R
Rice Imports.
Figure 38 Sttochastic Proje
ections of Nige
eria Net Rice Im
mports. Page80
Figure 39 Sttochastic Proje
ections of ECOWAS‐15 Net R
Rice Imports. Page81
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