Emerald Ash Borer Detection Likelihood 2012 Surface
Emerald Ash Borer Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire
Detection Likelihood Composite Surface
Data format: Raster Dataset - ESRI GRID
File or table name: Detection Likelihood 2012
Coordinate system: NAD 83 Albers
Theme keywords: : Forest Pest, Forest Insect, Invasive Species, Exotic, Emerald Ash Borer, Agrilus planipennis,
Detection Likelihood, MaxEnt
Abstract: The 2012 Detection Likelihood model for the Emerald Ash Borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis, was
produced for the Contiguous 48 United States (CONUS) at a 1 square kilometer (1 km2) resolution by the U.S.
Forest Service, Forest Health Protection, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET), in collaboration with
Animal and Plant Health Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine (APHIS PPQ) staff members. The intended use
of the 2012 Detection Likelihood is to inform the 2013 EAB sample design.
FGDC and ESRI Metadata:
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Identification Information
Data Quality Information
Spatial Data Organization Information
Spatial Reference Information
Entity and Attribute Information
Distribution Information
Metadata Reference Information
Metadata elements shown with blue text are defined in the Federal Geographic Data Committee's (FGDC) Content Standard for
Digital Geospatial Metadata (CSDGM). Elements shown with green text are defined in the ESRI Profile of the CSDGM. Elements
shown with a green asterisk (*) will be automatically updated by ArcCatalog. ArcCatalog adds hints indicating which FGDC elements
are mandatory; these are shown with gray text.
Identification Information:
Citation:
Citation information:
Originators: Downing, M. C., I. I. F. Leinwand, P. H. Chaloux, J. R. Withrow, and F. J. Sapio. 2011.
Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) “Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire Risk Assessment” U.S. Forest Service Forest
Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) Forest Health Protection USDA Forest Service,
http://www.fs.fed.us/foresthealth/technology/invasives_agrilusplanipennis_riskmaps.shtml
Title:
Detection Likelihood Surface for Agrilus planipennis
*File or table name: eab_avg_con
Publication date: 20121116
*Geospatial data presentation form: raster digital data
Emerald Ash Borer Detection Likelihood 2012 Surface
Series information:
Series name: Version 1.0
Issue identification: 20121116
Publication information:
Publication place: Fort Collins, Colorado
Publisher: Marla C. Downing
Online linkage:
http://www.fs.fed.us/foresthealth/technology/invasives_agrilusplanipennis_riskmaps.shtml
Larger work citation:
Citation information:
Originators: Downing, M. C., I. I. F. Leinwand, P. H. Chaloux, J. R. Withrow, and F. J. Sapio. 2011.
Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) “Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire Risk Assessment” U.S. Forest Service Forest
Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) Forest Health Protection USDA Forest Service,
http://www.fs.fed.us/foresthealth/technology/invasives_agrilusplanipennis_riskmaps.shtml
Title:
Detection Likelihood Composite Surface for Agrilus planipennis the Emerald Ash Borer (EAB).
Description:
Abstract:
The Detection Likelihood Composite model for the Emerald Ash Borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis,
was produced for the Contiguous 48 United States (CONUS) at a 1 square kilometer (1 km2) resolution by
the U.S. Forest Service, Forest Health Protection, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team's (Downing
et al. 2012) in collaboration with Animal and Plant Health Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine
(APHIS PPQ). The intended use of the Detection Likelihood Composite model is to inform the 2013 EAB
sample design. Pest information for EAB was taken from the Exotic Forest Pest (ExFor) website
(http://foresthealth.fs.usda.gov/exfor).
The likelihood of detecting EAB was modeled using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) interpolation
technique. MaxEnt identifies significant associations between presence and absence trap data with
selected site variables and then maps the probability of EAB presence in a geographic context. Two
Detection Likelihood models were developed: 1) using all known EAB presence locations from 2002 to
2012; and 2) a separate model, using only positive EAB locations from the 2012 field season. The two
Detection Likelihood models were combined into a composite model by taking the maximum value
between the two models at each 1 km cell. The 2002 to 2012 Detection Likelihood model puts more
emphasis on previously known EAB infested areas, whereas the 2012 Detection Likelihood model puts
more emphasis on the frontier of the EAB expanding range. By combining the two detection models we
emphasize the likelihood of detection along the frontier while continuing to utilize all known EAB locations
to define the known EAB range. For display purposes and ease of interpretation the data were partitioned
into four classes (Table 2).
Purpose:
The product's intended use is to predict where A. planipennis is most likely to be detected in the U.S and
to aid in the development of a detection and management strategy for A. planipennis.
Emerald Ash Borer Detection Likelihood 2012 Surface
Modeling datasets:
EAB Positives 2002 to 2012– EAB trap catches and visual detection within the U.S. from 2002 to 2012,
referred to as the “EAB presence-only” dataset. Acquired and compiled from APHIS PPQ and state
cooperators.
Input Variables:
Elevation- Digital Elevation Model (DEM 30m) from National Elevation Dataset (NED) resampled
(bilinear interpolation) to 1km resolution and converted from meters to feet.
Distance to Rest Area- Euclidean distance from Rest Areas (POI Factory 2012 http://www.poifactory.com/node/14656). Rest area point locations were identified as potential introduction locations.
Distance to Rest Area- Euclidean distance from Rest Areas (POI Factory 2012 http://www.poifactory.com/node/14656). Rest Area point locations were identified as potential introduction locations.
Traffic Volume- Traffic Volume point locations, from across the U.S., were compiled from TrafficMetrix
and used to interpolate a Traffic Volume raster using simple variable distance kriging.
Road Density-Developed from rasterized 2003 Tele Atlas Dynamp Transportation v. 5.2 layer for each
state at 100m. Density was calculated by summing the number of 100m road pixels within a 1 km pixel.
Housing Density- Housing density data developed by Theobald (2005) using the 2000 U.S. census data.
Moisture Surplus/ Deficit- 1, 3, 5 Year moisture surplus and deficit for 2010 from PRISM climate data
(Koch 2011).
Distance to Campground- Euclidean distance from campgrounds identified by federal and state
cooperators. Campgrounds were identified as potential introduction locations.
Urban Areas- Urban areas within the ash range identified as having a population greater than 100
persons per square mile from the 2000 census (Withrow 2010).
References:
Emerald Ash Borer Detection Likelihood 2012 Surface
APHIS 2012, Compiled Traffic Volume data. Data compiled from “trafficmetrix” current year estimates,
March 2011 Release. Market Planning Solutions Inc. (www.mpsisolutoins.com).
Downing, M. C., I. I. F. Leinwand, P. H. Chaloux, J. R. Withrow, and F. J. Sapio. 2011. Emerald Ash Borer
(EAB) “Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire Risk Assessment” U.S. Forest Service Forest Health Technology
Enterprise Team (FHTET) Forest Health Protection USDA Forest Service,
http://www.fs.fed.us/foresthealth/technology/invasives_agrilusplanipennis_riskmaps.shtml
Koch, F.H.; Smith, W.D.; Coulston, J.W. In press. Recent drought conditions in the conterminous United
States. Chapter 4 in Potter, K.M.; Conkling, B.L. (eds.) Forest Health Monitoring 2011 National Technical
Report. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-xxx. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern
Research Station.
Kowalski, D. 2011. USDA APHIS PPQ, Personal communication 7/18/2011.
POI Factory 2012. U.S. Rest Area point of interest. http://www.poi-factory.com/node/14656
Salesgenie, 2010. Campgrounds_SG. https://www.salesgenie.com
Schaetzl, R.J., Krist, F.J. Jr., Stanley, K.E., and C.M. Hupy. 2009. The Natural Soil Drainage Index: An
Ordinal Estimate of Long-Term, Soil Wetness. Physical Geography 30:383 409.
http://www.geo.msu.edu/schaetzl/PDFs/DI%20paper.pdf
Theobald, D. 2005. Landscape patterns of exurban growth in the USA from 1980 to 2020. Ecology and
Society 10(1): 32. URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol10/iss1/art32/.
USDA APHIS PPQ, 2009. Campsites.
Withrow, J. 2010. Production of Urban Host Layers. Deliverable document prepared for USDA Forest
Service, Forest Health Protection, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET), Task Order No: AG7604-D-09-0542. WAO No: FHTET-10-Pest-Host.
Data Display:
Table 1: For display purposes and ease of interpretation the data were partitioned into the following four
classes.
Detection Likelihood
Raster Value
0 to 0.05
0.05 to 0.25
0.25 to 0.50
0.50 to 1
Likelihood Class
Low
Moderate
Moderate High
High
*Language of dataset: en
Time period of content:
Time period information:
Single date/time:
Calendar date: 20121116
Emerald Ash Borer Detection Likelihood 2012 Surface
Currentness reference:
publication date
Status:
Progress: Planned
Maintenance and update frequency: As needed
Spatial domain:
Bounding coordinates:
*West bounding coordinate: -128.146914
*East bounding coordinate: -65.086930
*North bounding coordinate: 51.759317
*South bounding coordinate: 22.714584
Local bounding coordinates:
*Left bounding coordinate: -2370945.000000
*Right bounding coordinate: 2273055.000000
*Top bounding coordinate: 3189315.000000
*Bottom bounding coordinate: 255315.000000
Place:
Place keywords: Conterminous United States
Place keyword thesaurus: Lower 48 States
Access constraints: None
Use constraints:
None
Point of contact:
Contact information:
Contact organization primary:
Contact person: Marla C. Downing
Contact organization: Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) Forest Health Protection
Contact position: FHTET Lead, Biological Scientist
Contact address:
Address type: mailing and physical address
Address:
2150 Centre’ Ave., Bldg A, Suite 331
City: Fort Collins
State or province: Colorado
Postal code: 80526-1891
Country: USA
Contact voice telephone: 970-295-5843
Contact electronic mail address: mdowning@fs.fed.us
Hours of service: 9:00 AM - 5:00 PM MT
Data set credit:
Ian Leinwand
Security information:
Security classification: Unclassified
Emerald Ash Borer Detection Likelihood 2012 Surface
*Native dataset format: Raster Dataset
*Native data set environment:
ESRI ArcGIS 10.0
Cross reference:
Citation information:
Originators: Downing, M. C., I. I. F. Leinwand, P. H. Chaloux, J. R. Withrow, and F. J. Sapio. 2011.
Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) “Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire Risk Assessment” U.S. Forest Service Forest
Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) Forest Health Protection USDA Forest Service,
http://www.fs.fed.us/foresthealth/technology/invasives_agrilusplanipennis_riskmaps.shtml
Spatial Reference Information:
Horizontal coordinate system definition:
Coordinate system name:
*Projected coordinate system name: NAD_1983_Albers
*Geographic coordinate system name: GCS_North_American_1983
Planar:
Map projection:
*Map projection name: Albers Conical Equal Area
Albers conical equal area:
*Standard parallel: 29.500000
*Standard parallel: 45.500000
*Longitude of central meridian: -96.000000
*Latitude of projection origin: 23.000000
*False easting: 0.000000
*False northing: 0.000000
Planar coordinate information:
*Planar coordinate encoding method: row and column
Coordinate representation:
*Abscissa resolution: 1000
*Ordinate resolution: 1000
*Planar distance units: meters
Geodetic model:
*Horizontal datum name: North American Datum of 1983
*Ellipsoid name: Geodetic Reference System 80
*Semi-major axis: 6378137.000000
*Denominator of flattening ratio: 298.257222
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Spatial Data Organization Information:
*Direct spatial reference method: Raster
Raster object information:
*Image format: GRID
*Number of bands: 1
*Row count: 2934
*Column count: 4644
*Vertical count: 1
Emerald Ash Borer Detection Likelihood 2012 Surface
*Cell size X direction: 1000.000000
*Cell size Y direction: 1000.000000
*Bits per pixel: 32
*Pyramid layers: TRUE
*Image colormap: FALSE
*Compression type: Default
*Raster object type: Grid Cell
*Raster display type: matrix values
*Raster origin: Upper Left
Distribution Information:
Resource description: Downloadable Data
Standard order process:
Digital form:
Digital transfer information:
*Transfer size: 51.98 MB
*Dataset size: 51.98 MB
Metadata Reference Information:
*Metadata date: 20121116
*Language of metadata: en
Metadata contact:
Contact information:
Contact organization primary:
Contact person: Marla C. Downing
Contact organization: Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) USDA Forest Service
Contact position: FHTET, Lead and Biological Scientist
Contact address:
Address type: mailing and physical address
Address:
2150 Centre’ Ave., Bldg A, Suite 331
City: Fort Collins
State or province: Colorado
Postal code: 80526-1891
Country: USA
Contact voice telephone: 970-295-5843
Contact electronic mail address: mdowning@fs.fed.us
Hours of service: 9:00 AM - 5:00 PM MT
Emerald Ash Borer Detection Likelihood 2012 Surface
*Metadata standard name: FGDC Content Standards for Digital Geospatial Metadata
*Metadata standard version: FGDC-STD-001-1998
*Metadata time convention: local time
Metadata security information:
Metadata security classification: Unclassified