120°W 50°N 30°N 100°W 80°W Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire Detection Likelihood with Positive Locations from 2012 Detection Likelihood Positives 2012 60°W 50°N 30°N Low Moderate Moderate High High Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) Detection Likelihood This map depicts the likelihood of a positive EAB detection and is based on the associations of eleven independent variables with EAB presence data from 2012. Detection Likelihood values were generated using the bootstrap option of the MaxEnt statistical technique. The analysis was limited to the ash range (including urban areas) for the U.S. Likelihood values are classified into: Low, Moderate, Moderate High, and High classes. 100°W 0 50 100 200 300 400 500 Miles Albers Equal Area Conic Projection Map produced by FHTET, IL Fort Collins, CO on 11-16-2012 File: EAB_Detection_Likelihood_2012.mxd Project: EAB Risk Analysis 2013 80°W Summary of Emerald Ash Borer Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire Detection Likelihood Model with Positive Locations from 2012; November 16, 2012 The 2012 Detection Likelihood model for the Emerald Ash Borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis, was produced for the Contiguous 48 United States (CONUS) at a 1 square kilometer (1 km2) resolution by the U.S. Forest Service, Forest Health Protection, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team's (FHTET) in collaboration with Animal and Plant Health Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine (APHIS PPQ). The intended use of the 2012 Detection Likelihood is to inform the 2013 EAB sample design. Pest information for EAB was taken from the Exotic Forest Pest (ExFor) website (http://foresthealth.fs.usda.gov/exfor). The likelihood of detecting EAB was modeled using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) interpolation technique. MaxEnt identifies significant associations between presence and absence trap data from 2012 with selected site variables and then maps the probability of EAB presence in a geographic context. This non-parametric approach has been demonstrated to have utility for generating species distributions, because of its treatment of locations where a species has not been observed as pseudo-absence locations. Pseudoabsence is defined as a species being absent from an area for one of three reasons: 1) the habitat cannot support the species, 2) the species has not completely filled its geographic niche, or 3) the species is present but was not detected. For a species such as EAB that is still emerging and expanding into its full geographic range this is an appropriate modeling approach. Presence and absence EAB data from 2012 was provided by APHIS PPQ and state cooperators. Independent variables were investigated and selected to represent where EAB is likely to establish (Table 1). A bias raster, based on the autocorrelation of positive EAB locations, was used to correct for sampling bias. The MaxEnt bootstrap option was used to generate 100 iterations to develop an average Detection Likelihood model. For display purposes and ease of interpretation the data were partitioned into four classes (Table 2). Table 1: Variables used in A. planipennis Detection Likelihood 2012 Positives MaxEnt model Variable Description and Source Elevation Digital Elevation Model (DEM 30m) from National Elevation Dataset (NED) resampled (bilinear interpolation) to 1km resolution and converted from meters to feet. Distance to Rest Euclidean distance from Rest Areas (POI Factory 2012 http://www.poi-factory.com/node/14656). Rest Area point Area locations were identified as potential introduction locations. Traffic Volume Traffic Volume point locations, from across the U.S., were compiled from TrafficMetrix and used to interpolate a Traffic Volume raster using simple variable distance kriging. Drainage Index Drainage Index is based on soil taxonomy and drainage classes from SSURGO and STATSGO soil data. Road Density Developed from rasterized 2003 Tele Atlas Dynamp Transportation v. 5.2 layer for each state at 100m. Density was calculated by summing the number of 100m road pixels within a 1 km pixel. Housing Density Housing density data developed using the 2000 U.S. census data. Moisture Surplus/ Deficit Distance to Campground Urban Areas 1, 3, 5 year moisture surplus and deficit for 2011 developed from PRISM climate data (Koch 2011). Euclidean distance from campgrounds identified by federal and state cooperators. Campgrounds were identified as potential introduction locations. Urban areas within the ash range identified as having a population greater than 100 persons per square mile from the 2000 census (Withrow 2010). Table 2: Detection Likelihood Classes MaxEnt Value 0 to 0.05 0.05 to 0.25 0.25 to 0.50 0.50 to 1 Likelihood Class Low Moderate Moderate High High Contractor Support Ian Leinwand John Withrow Point of Contact Marla C. Downing Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET), Forest Health Protection, USDA Forest Service 2150 Centre’ Ave., Bldg A, Suite 331 Fort Collins, CO 80526-8121 Phone: 970-295-5843 mdowning@fs.fed.us Downing, M. C., I. I. F. Leinwand, P. H. Chaloux, J. R. Withrow, and F. J. Sapio. 2012. Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) “Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire Risk Assessment” U.S. Forest Service Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) Forest Health Protection USDA Forest Service, http://www.fs.fed.us/foresthealth/technology/invasives_agrilusplanipennis_riskmaps.shtml