The International Centre for Trade and Sustainable
Development (ICTSD), the Environment and Trade in a
World of Interdependence (ENTWINED) Programme and
Resources for the Future (RFF)
Dialogue on “Trade and Climate Change: Development
Aspects of Climate Change Policies of OECD Countries”
The developing country experience with biofuels
Jose Moreira, CENBIO Brazil
RFF Conference Center in Washington DC, United
States.
5 May 2009
Road Map
•Present situation of Biofuels
•Future Scenarios in Brazil and World
•Barriers for Biofuels Production
Direct Land Use Changes
Indirect Land Uses Changes
Biomass Certification
•Progress in Brazil
Yield gaps and yield potentials
Actual and potential yields for cane sugar
high input, rainfed
24
14
TOP VS
VS
VS+S
9
VS..MS
Actual
e
qu
M
oz
am
bi
ub
a
C
SA
U
Br
az
il
In
d
D
o,
on
g
C
ol
o
m
bi
a
R
-1
ia
4
C
t raw sugar/ha
19
Source: AEZ, FAO/IIASA (JS, 2007)
Future – World Long-Term Renewable-Energy Potential
for Electricity Generation
Ethanol Price in Brazil Compared
with International Gasoline Price
Land Use Profile at Global Level
Land
Area
Land use for
primary
production
Harvest
Proces sing
1.5 Gha
Land for food /
food crops
Food / Feed
harvest
Food
processing
End-use
Food
consumption
3.5 Gha
Pasture land
4.0 Gha
Land for
forestry / fibre
production
Animal
production
Forest
harvest
Material
production
Material
consumption
Secondary Residues
Primary Residues
Terciary Residues
0.015 Gha
4,3 Gha
Land for energy
crops
Energy crop
harvest
Energy
conversion
Energy
consumption
Rest land
Losses
How much land is in use, how much is
available now and in 2030?
1200
1066
1031
1000
874
Suitable for rain fed crop
production
million ha
800
Arable land use, 1997/99
600
497
366
400
387
220
200
203
228
232
sub-Saharan
Africa
East Asia
207
0
Latin America
and
Caribbean
South Asia
99
86
265
Near
Industrialized Transition
East/North
countries
Economies
Africa
GHG emissions from different types
of ethanol
Sugarcane ethanol
Corn ethanol
Wheat straw ethanol
Beet ethanol
Cereal ethanol
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
kg CO2eq./GJ fuel
Sources: Macedo et. alii, 2004, UK DTI, 2003 and USDA, 2004
70
80
90
Emission from
Gasoline and
diesel
100
EMERGENT TECHNOLOGIES OF HIGH IMPACT
POTENTIAL: BIOELECTRICITY SURPLUS
INDUSTRIAL OPTIMIZATION OF SUGAR MILLS WITH AND
WITHOUT THE USE OF TOPS AND LEAVES FOR ENERGY GENERATION
SOLUTION WITH MAXIMUM
ENERGY SURPLUS AND
COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE
TECHNOLOGY
SURPLUS ENERGY POTENTIAL IN THE
COUNTRY (DURING HARVEST)
POWER
9,500 MW
329 SUGAR MILLS
135 kWh/tc (65 bar/0% TOPS&LEAVES)
TOTAL ANNUAL SUGAR CANE
PROCESSING IN BRAZIL: 386
MILLION TCANE (2004/05)
EMERGENT TECHNOLOGY: USE OF
100% OF TOPS AND LEAVES (UPPER
LIMIT)
POWER
27,000 MW
300kWh/tc (85 bar/100% TOPS&LEAVES)
• BAGASSE IS ALREADY AVAILABLE INSIDE THE MILLS
• TOPS AND LEVES WILL BECOME AVAILABLE INSIDE SUGAR MILLS IN NEAR FUTURE
• INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY FOR DEPLOYMENT IN SUGAR MILLS IS ALREADY AVAILABLE AND DEDINI HAS THE
KNOWHOW
Increased cogeneration efficiency
•11025 GWh in 2007
• 15768 in 2008
•45180 GWh already contracted for 2012
Will
Biofuels
Slow
Climate
Change?
•The OPEC Fund
for International
Development
(OFID),
prepared by
IIASA, 2009
•The study indicate that first-generation biofuels development as has been promoted
by national policies is conflicting with goals of achieving food security, results in only
modest increases of agricultural value added in developing countries, achieves net
greenhouse gas savings only after 2030, creates additional risks of deforestation and
threats to biodiversity
•Achieving a ten percent biofuels share in transport fuel at the global level can be met
but this causes about a fifteen percent increase in the number of people at risk of
hunger (i.e., and increase 140-150 million people at risk of hunger as compared to 2008
numbers). In particular the poor urban population, subsistence farmers and the
landless in developing countries will bear the brunt.
•Anticipated greenhouse gas savings from biofuels use can only be expected after 30
to 50 years and that is about the time when climate change impacts will result in
increased agricultural vulnerability, particularly in a number of developing countries.
•Among the first-generation feedstocks, sustainable sugar cane production under rainfed conditions in former pastures and grassland areas offers environmentally and
economically an attractive biofuel option as demonstrated in the case of Brazil.
•Source: The OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID), prepared by IIASA, 2009
INDIRECT LAND USE CHANGE
“We are only in the very early stages of assessing and
understanding the indirect, market mediated effects of different
fuels. Indirect effects have never been enforced against any
product in the world. California should not be setting a
wide‐reaching carbon regulation based on one set of
assumptions with clear omissions relevant to the real world. [...]
This proposal creates an asymmetry or bias in a regulation
designed to create a level playing field. It violates the
fundamental presumption that all fuels in a performance‐based
standard should be judged the same way (i.e. identical LCA
boundaries). Enforcing different compliance metrics against
different fuels is the equivalent of picking winners and losers,
which is in direct conflict with the ambition of the LCFS.”
Source: Letter by 111 Ph.D. Scientists, 2009
LAND CLEARED 1989-1999
NEW CROP LAND
1989-1999
LAND CLEARED 1989-1999
NEW CROP LAND 1989-1999
Pasture Area and Productivity
Crops Yields - 2001 and 2007
Carbon Stocks in Crops
Biofuels Certification
Table 1 Continuation
Conclusions from Brazilian Biofuels
Certification Study
•While the current study contains many different types of uncertainties, no
prohibitive reasons where identified why ethanol from São Paulo principally
could not meet the Dutch sustainability standards set for 2007. In many
impact categories, Brazilian ethanol from sugar cane scores average to
(very) positive, see also table I for a summary. For a number of other criteria,
problems are identified, but it also appears that these may differ
•strongly between the individual plants. Furthermore, for most of these
issues, measures can be identified to improve performance (when needed).
•It is important to recognize that sustainability criteria lead to higher
production costs - depending on the strictness of the sustainability criteria,
we estimate additional ethanol costs of up to 56%, though in case
mechanical green harvesting is applied, additional ethanol costs are
estimated at 24%.While the latter may not necessarily be prohibitive given
current oil prices, it is clear that some financial support is most likely
needed to stimulate sustainable ethanol production.
Source: Sustainability of Brazilian bio-ethanol, E. Smeets et al, Utrecht
University and State University of Campinas, 2006
Improved Low Carbon Industry Practices
In the last few years, there have been significant operational
improvements in the Brazilian sugarcane industry. There are
at least three inter‐related changes that significantly impact
carbon intensity calculations, namely:
• Reduction of pre‐harvest field burning 35% green harvested
• Mechanization of harvest 35% mechanized; Expansion only
with mechanization
• Increased cogeneration efficiency 11025 GWh in 2007 and
15768 in 2008 and 45180 GWh already contracted for 2012