Tectonophysics 320 (2000) 169–173 www.elsevier.com/locate/tecto Perspectives on tectonic modeling S. Cloetingh a, Yu.Y. Podlachikov a,b a Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Amsterdam, Netherlands b Department of Geology, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland 1. Introduction This volume contains a series of papers on various aspects of tectonic modeling. The quantification of tectonic processes through numerical and analogue modeling has developed over the last few decades into a very active domain of research in Solid Earth science. The process-oriented approach to tectonics intrinsically trespasses traditional borders, integrating, for example, geology and geophysics or soft and hard rock geology. At the same time, tectonic modeling is clearly not a stand-alone tool, but requires high-quality constraints on the structure and evolution of the lithosphere (e.g. Cloetingh et al., 1997). Owing to their nature, sedimentary basins have been serving as a nucleus for integrated tectonic modeling, linking studies of the underlying lithosphere to reconstructions of the sedimentary record. The time dimension intrinsic in the sequence of monitoring and imaging of the present, reconstruction of the geological record and process modeling requires much feedback between all components of the work flow. In earlier years, sedimentary basin studies focused to a large extent on the mechanisms controlling basin formation (e.g. Cloetingh et al., 1993) and subsequent subsidence evolution (Janssen et al., 1995). In the last few years increasing attention has focused on the role of lithospheric memory and stresses in the polyphase evolution of sedimentary basins (e.g. Van der Beek et al., 1995; Bertotti et al., 1998; Andeweg et al., 1999; Cloetingh et al., 1999; Garcia et al., 1999; Van der Wateren and Cloetingh, 1999; Reemst and Cloetingh, 2000). Neotectonics of basins has developed as a nucleus for research efforts, with interesting implications for a better understanding of tectonic geomorphology and fluid flow. Growing attention has been focusing on the interplay of lithospheric and surface processes. Linking the different temporal and spatial scales in tectonic modeling is key to future conceptual advances. At the same time, the step from 2D to 3D modeling is in full progress, benefiting from the great potential provided by access to 3D seismic data and visualization and data-integration tools. In contrast, with seismic modeling, tectonic modeling is characterized by the fourth dimension, which is time. Another important aspect is the need to cope with the missing geological record, removed through, for example, erosional processes at the surface (Sanders et al., 1999). As a result of increasing resolution in reconstruction techniques ( Van Wees et al., 1996) and analytical facilities, much better time constraints are now available on the quantification of this missing record. For the deeper earth, tomographic studies have extended the lithospheric memory considerably, by providing much better resolution of the fate of the subducted slabs of the geological past ( Engdahl et al., 1998). The need for quantitative reconstruction of the geological process makes tectonic modeling much more than a computer simulation. Essentially, modeling of this nature often allows better and sharper formulation of the key questions 0040-1951/00/$ - see front matter © 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. PII: S0 0 4 0- 1 9 51 ( 0 0 ) 0 01 5 4 -2 170 S. Cloetingh, Yu.Y. Podlachikov / Tectonophysics 320 (2000) 169–173 on the first order aspects of the tectonic mechanisms and controls on their geological expression. This feature implies that quantification of different tectonic scenarios through process-oriented forward modeling should be based on a full appreciation of the need to constrain these models with an array of different and complementary data sets as well as a proper handling of their intrinsic uncertainties. This further implies that inverse modeling as such, without inclusion of a priori knowledge on the processes involved, could be unnecessarily time consuming and even create artificial modeldriven approaches, detracting attention and resources from more fruitful research directions. This is increasingly important as recent advances in computing power and information technologies have removed many obstacles hindering 3D and 4D modeling in the past. To fully utilize the new technological opportunities, proper focusing on fundamental questions is more than ever a prerequisite for successful tectonic modeling. The papers in this volume provide a survey of the present phase of modeling of tectonic processes, covering the span of the full lithospheric scale to the spatial scale of reservoirs on sub-basin and outcrop scales. The same is true for the time scales, varying from modeling of long-term processes in the remote geological past to modeling of recent processes operating on shorter geological time scales. 2. Rheology of the lithosphere and basin deformation The first set of three papers of this volume concentrate on rheology of the lithosphere and implications for basin (de)formation (Moisio et al., 2000; Bertotti et al., 2000; Van Wees and Beekman, 2000; all this volume). Lithospheric rheology represents a key element in modeling studies of lithospheric deformation (Bassi, 1995; Cloetingh et al., 1995; Ter Voorde et al., 1998; Buck et al., 1999; Ellis et al., 1999, 2000). Intrinsic in the construction of lithospheric strength envelopes are uncertainties related to extrapolation over several orders in magnitude of strain rates from laboratory experiments to the rates characterizing tectonic processes. Over the last few years considerable efforts have been made to link the results of rheological profiling to effective elastic thickness estimates inferred from flexural foreland basin studies (e.g. Burov and Diament, 1995; Zoetemeijer et al., 1999). These approaches have resulted in a fair understanding of the overall rheological behavior and its relationship with thermo-tectonic age for the Eurasian lithosphere (Cloetingh and Burov, 1996). At the same time, a number of regional studies have been performed, focusing on the bulk rheology of mountain chains (Okaya et al., 1996; Lankreijer et al., 1999; Willingshofer et al., 1999) and on rifted basins (Bertotti et al., 1997). Important input in this modeling comes from seismic reflection and refraction profiling in various segments of Europe’s lithosphere (Matenco et al., 1997a; Zoetemeijer et al., 1999; Pfiffner et al., 2000). Simultaneously, the better understanding through modeling studies and continuing collection of new stress indicator data (e.g. Delvaux et al., 1997; Huibregtse et al., 1998), have provided new constraints on the intraplate stress regimes in the lithosphere (Golke et al., 1996; Bada et al., 1998; Munoz-Martin et al., 1998). Moisio et al. (2000, this volume) present the results of a numerical modeling study of the present-day stress and deformation under various loading conditions along a deep seismic reflection profile in the Baltic area. Their work shows the existence of pronounced lateral variations in strength of the lithosphere, reflecting large-scale heterogeneity of the lithosphere. Bertotti et al. (2000, this volume) focus on a dynamic link between the level of ductile crustal flow and style of normal faulting. The importance of lower crustal flow for feedback between surface erosion and crustal tectonics was demonstrated recently by Burov and Cloetingh (1997) and the relationships between rheology and decoupling within the lithosphere are vital in this respect ( Ter Voorde et al., 1998). Van Wees and Beekman (2000, this volume) focus on the modeling of extensional basin evolution with temporal variations in lithosphere rheology during Mesozoic basin history. The results of this work demonstrate that basin weakening may to a large extent be controlled by pre-existing weakness zones in crust and upper mantle. S. Cloetingh, Yu.Y. Podlachikov / Tectonophysics 320 (2000) 169–173 3. Continental collision and foredeeps In recent years, considerable effort has been made in the numerical modeling of continental collision (e.g. Beaumont et al., 1999; Pfiffner et al., 2000) and foredeep development (e.g. Milan et al., 1995; Matenco et al., 1997b; Zoetemeijer et al., 1999). Analogue modeling has been an important approach to better process understanding in tectonics for many years. This approach has not been intrinsically hampered by limitations to 2D imposed on the earlier generations of numerical models. Analogue modeling has been a particularly effective tool for addressing lateral and temporal variations in stress field and rheology in the lithosphere and has been serving as an important guideline in the interpretation of seismic reflection data (Brun and Nalpas, 1996; Brun, 1999). Sokoutis et al. (2000, this volume) present the results of an analogue modeling of continental collision, studying in particular the role of pre-existing variations in crustal thickness. Artyushkov et al. (2000, this volume) study the orogenic evolution of the southern Urals. Following a discussion of the data base, the paper focuses on basin subsidence and topographic elevation. 4. Fault modeling on reservoir scales The study of geomechanic properties of the lithosphere has in recent years increasingly addressed the importance of inhereted weakness zones and structural elements in the upper crust in tectonic reactivation ( Van Balen et al., 1998; Van Wees et al., 1996). In addition, fault-scale modeling has been addressing questions inferred from seismic reflection profiling carried out in the context of petroleum exploration and production. Fluid flow through fractured media and the role of stresses (Skar et al., 1999) has become an important topic in this context. The next series of papers concentrate on the topic of tectonic modeling on sub-basin and reservoir scales. Beekman et al. (2000, this volume) study through finite element modelling on a reservoir scale the effects of faulting, fracturing and in situ-stress predictions on effective reservoir permeability. Van Balen and Skar (2000, this volume) review 171 the influence of faults and intraplate stresses on overpressures in extensional basins. Their study focuses on the Halten Terrace of the MidNorway margin. 5. Modeling basin fill and relative sea-level changes Since its inception, basin modeling has been focusing on the modeling of stratal patterns and basin geometries (Peper and De Boer, 1995; Van Balen et al., 1995; Ter Voorde and Cloetingh, 1996; Ter Voorde et al., 1997). Only recently has attention been focusing on the modeling of facies changes and grain size distributions. A considerable body of this work has been focusing on the quantification of climate controls on basin fill, especially on higher frequency time scales. With the increasing capability to include the effects of faulting in basin modeling, the quantification of tectonic controls on shorter time scales is now underway. Den Bezemer et al. (2000, this volume) present a numerical study of grain size distribution in sedimentary basins by diffusion-based models. The mechanisms controlling sea-level change, as well as the relative contributions of climate and tectonics to the sea-level record has been a domain of vigorous debate for many years (e.g. Cloetingh et al., 1985; Schlager, 1993). This is clearly an area where the quantification of the different components of the sea-level record depends strongly on the capability to access areas with global coverage. In this context, it is important to supplement the database largely built up as a result of intensive efforts in petroleum exploration ( Vail et al., 1977; Haq et al., 1988) with data from areas and time slices where the application of modern sequence stratigraphic concepts have been more limited. Artyushkov et al. (2000, this volume) study the nature of sea-level changes in Late Cambrian. Donato et al. (2000, this volume) concentrate on prediction of sea-level changes, geoid and gravity anomalies by deglaciation in the Late Pleistocene. Modeling of dynamic topography (Gurnis, 1993) and its interplay with sea-level changes and surface processes is now developing into an active field of research ( Van der Wateren and Cloetingh, 1999) with a new focus on environ- 172 S. Cloetingh, Yu.Y. Podlachikov / Tectonophysics 320 (2000) 169–173 mental tectonics. Further interpretation and feedback between monitoring studies of present-day crustal dynamics, reconstruction of the geological part and process modeling of the interplay of the lithosphere and surface processes hold significant potential for better constraining geo-prediction in space and time. Acknowledgements We acknowledge the International Lithosphere Programme for funding and support of tectonic modeling studies carried out in the framework of the ILP Task Force ‘‘Origin of Sedimentary Basins’’. Margot Saher is thanked for effective and dedicated editorial assistance. We appriciate the helpful comments and criticism provided by the reviewers of the papers published in this volume. References Andeweg, B., De Vicente, G., Cloetingh, S., Munoz-Martin, A., 1999. Local stress fields and intra-plate deformation of Iberia: variations in spatial and temporal interplay of regional stress sources. Tectonophysics 305, 153–164. Bada, G., Cloetingh, S., Gerner, P., Horvath, F., 1998. 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