Reforming Today’s Conservation and Environmental
Policies for Tomorrow’s Scarcity (and Abundance)
Linus Blomqvist
Director of Conservation
Substitution
Wild harvests
Farming
Factory
Wild meat
Pasture / feedlot
In vitro meat
Wild rubber
Rubber plantation
Synthetic rubber
Wild fish
Extensive aquaculture
Closed-loop aquaculture
Fuelwood from natural forest Fuelwood from tree plantation Modern fuels
Nitrogen-fixing legumes

More artificial
Synthetic fertilizer

Global Cereal Production and Area
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
1960
1970
1980
Production
Source: FAO (2015)
1990
Area
2000
2010
Land Savings From Synthetic Fertilizer and Tractors
Horse feed
Legumes for nitrogen fixation
Per-Capita Fuelwood Consumption in the United States
18
16
14
12
m3
10
8
6
4
2
0
1840
Source: Reynolds & Pierson (1942); FAO (2015)
2012
Global Land Use
Pasture
26%
Unused land
50%
Cropland
12%
Production
forest
9%
Source: FAO (2015); FAO (2010); Liu et al (2014)
Cities
3%
Declining Wildlife Populations: The Living Planet Index
Source: WWF (2014)
Global Farmland Area
6
1.60
1.40
5
1.20
4
Billion ha
3
0.80
0.60
2
0.40
1
-
0.20
1960
1965
1970
1975
Standing cropland (left axis)
Source: FAO (2015)
1980
1985
1990
Pasture (left axis)
1995
2000
2005
2010
-
Total farmland per capita (right axis)
ha
1.00
Per-Capita Land Footprint
4.5
4
3.5
3
ha
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
7000 BP
Source: Ruddiman & Ellis (2009); Liu et al (2014); FAO (2010); FAO (2015)
Today
Nitrogen Pollution Index in US Farming
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
Source: Breakthrough Institute analysis of data from Conant et al (2013)
1990
1995
2000
2005
Global Wood Consumption
4
0.9
3.5
0.8
0.7
3
0.5
Billion m3
2
0.4
1.5
0.3
1
0.2
0.5
0
0.1
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
Fuelwood (left axis)
Total wood consumption per capita (right axis)
Source: FAO (2015)
1990
1995
2000
2005
Industrial roundwood (left axis)
2010
0
m3
0.6
2.5
Global Population Growth Rate
2.50
2.00
1.50
%
1.00
0.50
0
Source: UN DESA (2015)
New England Forest Regrowth
Photo credit: Harvard Forest, Harvard University
Ouachita River Floodplain Restoration
Photo credit: Steve Haase, The Nature Conservancy
Bison Reintroduction in Montana
Photo credit: American Prairie Reserve
Photo credit: Next Nature
Photo credit: David Mcnew
linus@thebreakthrough.org
www.thebreakthrough.org