PSW Climate/Science Meeting
Francis M. Fujioka
Riverside Fire Lab
15-16 October 2003
PSW-4402
Fire Meteorology Mission
Provide the knowledge and tools to
analyze and predict weather and shortterm climate conditions that impact forest
and wildland management.
Research Problem Areas
• The evolving fire management needs
for weather information exceed the
spatial and temporal resolution of
existing data sources.
• A better long-range forecasting system
is needed to support the requirements
of fire management.
Fire Meteorology Research
Primary Customers
• FS Fire and Aviation Management
• CA and NV Smoke and Air Committee (CANSAC)
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
FS Region 5
California Department of Forestry
Nevada Division of Forestry
Los Angeles County Fire
DOI (BLM, NPS, FWS, BIA)
California Air Resources Board
San Joaquin Valley APCD
• Hawaii Division of Forestry & Wildlife
• U.S. Army – Hawaii
Problem 1 Studies
Need for Better Resolution of Fire
Weather Data
1. Mesoscale weather models for fire planning
in Hawaii. D. Chen, U. Hawaii
2. Mesoscale weather models for fire planning
in California
1. Nuss and Miller, Naval Postgraduate School,
Monterey
2. Jones, UC Santa Barbara
3. California and Nevada fire and air quality
modeling consortium. T. Brown, Desert
Research Institute
Develop integrated weather/fire
models for prescribed fire and wildfire
incident management planning
• High resolution gridded weather
(spacings of 10 m to 1 km)
• Input to fire behavior models, e.g.
FARSITE
• Input to fire-danger rating
• Supports FMP model development for
fire growth and fire suppression
effectiveness
ICESS/UCSB MM5 Run
Mesoscale Spectral Model
Forecast
Bee Fire, California - 1996
Williams Fire
23 September
2002
Angeles NF,
California
Troy Fire, June 2002
Troy Fire
June 2002
Problem 2 Studies
Better Long-Range Fire Weather
Forecasts
1. Long-lead fire prediction for Hawaii.
P.-S. Chu, U. Hawaii
2. Multiscale fire weather forecasts. J.
Roads, Scripps Inst. Oceanog., UCSD
(co-funded by Southern Station)
Develop seasonal severity forecast
models for national and regional
applications
• Weather models to generate daily
simulations for a 12-16 week period
• Higher resolution at regional scales for
a 2 week period
• Provide input to fire business model
(e.g., number of fires)
US Long-Range Fire Danger Forecast
Forecasting Probability of Fires