3
“If you know the enemy and
know yourself, you need not fear
the result of a hundred battles.”
- Sun Tzu
Muleskinners!!
3
MIDDLE EAST OVERVIEW
18 October 02
1LT Falk
Muleskinners!!
3
PURPOSE:
• Provide Support Squadron Officers a
current situational overview covering the
Mid-East Theater of Operations
Muleskinners!!
3
ENDSTATE
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
“They suck”
Iraq in poor state to conduct viable defense or
– enough forces
– don’t have logistics (hetts to move armored forces)
– most forces at 50% OR Rate
– expect 40% surrender on regular divisions
– could conduct Mount operations (urban warfare) but not counterattacks
(Black Hawk Down)
Exceptions: Republican Guard hand selected with political allegiance to
Saddam
Challenge in Logistics Supply from lessons learned
Fundamental understanding of terrain
Basic understanding of Iraqi Forces (can role into they suck)
– LOCs / CHEM (Decon)
Muleskinners!!
Many challenges
3
AGENDA
•
•
•
•
•
AO / AI
Weather/Terrain
Iraq
Friendly Forces
Lessons Learned
Muleskinners!!
3
REFERENCES
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
National Geographic
Central Intelligence Agency
CNN
Janes
US News & World Report
Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Moving Mountains: Lessons in Leadership
and Logistics from the Gulf War
Muleskinners!!
3
AO / AI
Muleskinners!!
3
Muleskinners!!
3
CONFLICT
Muleskinners!!
3
RELIGION
Muleskinners!!
OIL AND WATER
Muleskinners!!
3
3
OIL RESERVES
OIL
300
200
150
OIL (BILLIONS)
100
50
Nation/State
Muleskinners!!
SYRIA
EGYPT
YEMEN
OMAN
QUTAR
IRAN
KUWAIT
SAUDI
ARABIA
UNITED
ARAB
0
IRAQ
In Billions
250
3
Climate
•
•
•
•
Mostly desert
Mild to cool winters
Dry, hot, cloudless summers
northernmost regions along Iranian and Turkish
borders experience cold winters with
occasionally heavy snows
Muleskinners!!
3
CLIMATE
Mean Annual Precipitation
Baghdad (January)
– Max: 16o C / 60o F
– Min: 4o C / 39o F
Muleskinners!!
3
GEOGRAPHY
(IRAQ)
• Area: slightly more than twice the size of Idaho
• Land boundaries: 3,617 km (168,751 square miles)
– Iran 1,458 km, Jordan 175 km, Kuwait 240 km, Saudi Arabia
808 km, Syria 605 km, Turkey 331 km
• Coastline: 58 km (36 miles)
• Natural hazards:
– dust storms, sandstorms, floods
• Geographical note:
– strategic location on Shatt al Arab waterway and at the head
of the Persian Gulf
Muleskinners!!
3
Muleskinners!!
3
TERRAIN
•
•
•
•
Rivers/Lakes
Cities
Roads
LOCs (HWY/
RAIL/AIR)
• Avenues of
Approach
• Water/Dams
• Pysch. Points
Muleskinners!!
LINES OF COMMUNICATION3
Turkey
Irbil
Mosul
36
36
Kirkuk
Syria
Iran
Tikrit
BAGHDAD
Jordan
Karbala
Al Kut
Al Najaf
32
32
H35
Saudi Arabia
H7
H10
As Samawah
Al Basrah
An Nasiriyah
AL Zubayr
RIVERS
ROADS
KUWAIT
RAILS
Muleskinners!!
IRAQI PEOPLE
• Population: Approximately 21 million
• Key Cities:
–
–
–
–
Baghdad: 5,500,000
Mosul: 1,200,000
Tikrit:
958,372
Basrah: 1,500,000
• 18 Provinces ( 3 Kurdish)
• 75-80% Arab,
15-20% Kurdish
• Official Language: Arabic
• Religion: 97% Muslim
- 60-65% Shia, 32-37% Sunni, 3% Christian
Muleskinners!!
3
3
Muleskinners!!
3
“Let me say, frankly, that Suddam Hussein has few
friends in the Middle East. In the Past, as is well
known, he has pursued an aggressive regional
policy that posed a direct threat to many Arab
countries, as well as to others. However, the view
among most Arabs is that Iraq does not pose a
serious threat - or at least an immediate military
threat...but Suddam’s main threat is to his own
people”
- Leading Arab Diplomat
Muleskinners!!
3
IRAQI FORCES
•
•
•
•
•
•
Current status - Poor
Array of the Corps
Order of Battle
No Fly Zones/Air Superiority
NBC Threat
Iraq Military
Muleskinners!!
3
ARMIES
MIDDLE EAST ARMIES
0.7
IN MILLIONS
0.6
0.5
0.4
ACTIVE
RESERVE
0.3
0.2
0.1
IR
AQ
IR
AN
SA EG
UD
Y
I A PT
R
AB
TU IA
R
KE
Y
SY
R
JO IA
R
D
A
KU N
W
AI
IS T
R
A
LE EL
BA
NO
N
Y
EM
EN
O
M
AN
UN
IT
Q
UT
ED
AR
BA AR
AB
HR
EM AI
IR N
AT
ES
0
JAN 91
PERSONNEL 1,200,000
ARMY DIVS
68
TANKS
5950
APC
4800
ARTY
4000
CURRENT
350,000
23
2662
1780
2694
Source - National Geographic
Muleskinners!!
3
Iraq Ground Forces
XXX
as of 30 0030Z Sep 02
V
XXX
36 N
36 N
I
XXX
XXX
I
II
XXX
XXX
II
IV
XXX
III
UNIT
Regular Army
Republican Guard
Heavy Light Total
6
11
17
4
2
6
Muleskinners!!
3
1st REPUBLICAN GUARD CORPS
XXX
RG
1
XX
XX
XX
Neb
Adnan
Hamm
II
III
II
II
III
CMDO
U/I
U/I
26th
134th
U/I
Muleskinners!!
3
1st REPUBLICAN GUARD CORPS
XXX
RG
1
III
U/I
III
185th
X
III
593rd
U/I
III
U/I
Training
Muleskinners!!
3
REGULAR ARMY I CORPS
XXX
RA
I
Kirkuk HQ
XX
XX
5th
XX
2nd
III
XX
8th
III
II
38th
III
II
X
CMDO
137th
136th
206th
U/I
I
I
Muleskinners!!
3
Iraq No Fly Zone
Muleskinners!!
3
IRAQ’S ARSENAL
NUCLEAR
THEN
NOW
BIOLOGICAL CHEMICAL BALLISTIC MISSILES
Anthrax
Sarin
1 Year
Botulinum Toxin
Scud Missiles
VX Gas
Aflatoxin
Mustard Gas
Anthrax
Scud Missiles
Highly Enriched Uranium
Sarin
Botulinum Toxin
(Extended Range)
VX Gas
Muleskinners!!
3
IRAQ MILITARY
• Military Equipment
– Similar/Same Equipment
• AVN Threat
• Rear Area Threat
• Loyalty to Saddam
– Saddam ‘wins 100% of vote’
• Political Officer (Hunt For Red October)
• Surrender Rate (Moving Mountains)
Muleskinners!!
FRIENDLY FORCES
•
•
•
•
Britain
Turkey
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia
Muleskinners!!
3
FRIENDLY FORCES
• Vehicles:
– Turks: T-72
– Brits: Chiefton (similar to T-72)
Muleskinners!!
3
3
“Running Logistics for the Gulf War
has been compared to transporting the
entire population of Alaska, along with
their personal belongings, to the other
side of the world, on short notice.”
From Armed Forces Journal International
Muleskinners!!
3
LESSONS LEARNED
•
•
•
•
•
Mobility: Tubeless Tires
Maintenance: High-Failure Repair Parts
Effects on the Individual: Desert Wildlife
Supply: Tires
Climate: Flash Floods
Muleskinners!!
3
UPCOMING REFERENCES
•
•
•
•
Vehicle Recognition Book
Equipment Smart Book
Iraqi Smart Book
RS5 - Culture Handbook
Muleskinners!!
3
QUESTIONS
Muleskinners!!
2nd REPUBLICAN GUARD
CORPS
3
XXX
RG
2nd
XX
XX
Al Nida
Medina
II
U/I
XX
III
U/I
Baghdad
III
135th
II
U/I
Muleskinners!!
2nd REPUBLICAN GUARD
CORPS
XXX
RG
2nd
III
162nd
III
886th
II
U/I
II
U/I
Muleskinners!!
3
3
REGULAR ARMY III CORPS
XXX
RA
III
Al Basrah Bks
XX
XX
6th
X
XX
51st
II
11th
III
III
II
III
CMDO
III
III
76th
139th
216th
249th
202nd
Muleskinners!!
U/I
REGULAR ARMY IV CORPS
3
XXX
RA
IV
XX
XX
10th
III
XX
14th
III
18th
III
II
II
X
CMDO
IV
U/I
U/I
IV
IV
204th
Muleskinners!!
IV
3
REGULAR ARMY V CORPS
XXX
RA
V
XX
XX
1st
XX
4th
X
II
III
Khanhash Depl Area
696th
802nd
Tall Aswad Mil Fac
XX
7th
III
16th
II
III
X
CMDO
V
V
137th
205th
185th
Muleskinners!!
V
3
CAPABILITIES / VULNERABILITIES (1 of 10)
Intelligence
+ Can conduct extensive Information
Operations/PSYOPs on civilian population
+ Military uses encrypted communications
+/- Acquired or produced UAVs
-Does not have the EW equipment, organization, or expertise to counter
regional threats from Syria, Israel, or Turkey
- Intelligence susceptible to deception and collection assets can be
suppressed by Coalition air attacks or overwhelmed by the tempo of
the Coalition ground assault
Muleskinners!!
3
CAPABILITIES / VULNERABILITIES (2 of 10)
Maneuver
+ Effective Counterinsurgency Operations (COINOPs) against internal
opposition groups
+ Vehicles are capable of firing ATGMs
- Iraq cannot adequately defend against an U.S.-led Coalition force.
- use HETs to deploy heavy divisions
-Ground Forces' capability to fight at night
is poor
Muleskinners!!
3
CAPABILITIES / VULNERABILITIES (3 of 10)
Fire Support
+ Extremely flexible with regards to task-organizing artillery
+ Can launch missiles with little warning from central Iraq to strike at
Coalition forces
-Self-propelled artillery is limited and usually found with armored divisions
Muleskinners!!
3
CAPABILITIES / VULNERABILITIES (4 of 10)
Mobility / Countermobility
+ Maintains a large stockpile of mines
+ Heavy divisions have far greater engineering capabilities
+ Countermine equipment has the capability to breach complex obstacles,
including mines.
+ Defenses may be augmented with oil-filled ditches called fire trenches
+ Combat engineer units have a wide variety of equipment, mines and
explosives
+ Impressive array of mine-delivery capabilities for scatterable and
hand/mechanically-emplaced mines
- Made up of mostly dismounted infantry which limits mobility
- Fighting and crew served weapons positions, bunkers, and trenches built
to minimum standards
- Lack of any true armored combat engineer vehicles
Muleskinners!!
3
CAPABILITIES / VULNERABILITIES (5 of 10)
Air Defense
- Ground forces not organized or equipped for centralized air battle
management and control of their air defense assets
- System is manual, slow, and leaves engagement decisions to the individual
gunner/weapon/unit
- Iraqi gunners proven to be poorly trained and disciplined
Muleskinners!!
3
CAPABILITIES / VULNERABILITIES (6 of 10)
C2
+ Frequency hopping radios rapidly change frequencies to resist jamming
and intercept
- Lines of communication susceptible to interdiction by coalition Air Forces
- Lack of reliable and secure communications
Muleskinners!!
3
CAPABILITIES / VULNERABILITIES(7 of 10)
CSS
+ Significant POL and ammunition storage facilities in southern Iraq
+ Ammunition stockpiles are sufficient to support six to seven months of
medium-level offensive operations
+ Ammunition stocks are kept uploaded on trucks to expedite rapid delivery and
quick transfer to subordinate units
+ RG provided with the most modern weapons
in the Iraqi inventory and is equipped at higher
levels than RA units
-Equipment operability has degraded due
to age, wear and tear, and poor Maintenance
Muleskinners!!
3
CAPABILITIES / VULNERABILITIES(8 of 10)
- Extended LOCs and limited heavy lift transportation ensure resupply delays
- Logistics infrastructure is hindered by its vulnerability to air interdiction
- Maps to personnel below battalion level not issued, and many with maps have
poor map reading skills
- High desertion rates among litter bearers and patients
- Brigades have no patient treatment or holding capability
-
HETs prone to breakdowns during high-tempo operations
+ RG provided with the most modern weapons in the Iraqi inventory and is
equipped at higher levels than RA units
Muleskinners!!
3
CAPABILITIES / VULNERABILITIES(9 of 10)
Air
+ Use attack helicopters to apply rapid firepower
+ Helicopters can deliver biological weapons
- Helicopter operations severely degraded due to several factors: pilot
training, helicopter maintenance, and parts shortages
Muleskinners!!
3
CAPABILITIES / VULNERABILITIES(10 of 10)
NBC
+ Ground troops appear to be well-trained in NBC defense
+ Capability to produce equipment and material necessary for biological
agent production and delivery
+ Retains a broad range of chemical warfare related items
+ Large quantities of unfilled artillery
projectiles, rockets, and bombs for use
as chemical warfare agent delivery
means
Muleskinners!!