Budgeting for Evolutionary Acquisition
and Spiral Development
Presented By
Tim Spaulding
Lean Aerospace Initiative / MIT
March 26, 2003
An LAI Plenary Conference
Problem Statement
•
Can evolutionary acquisition (and specifically spiral
development) be performed without changing the
way funds are allocated?
•
Summary:
•
•
•
•
•
Historical examples say no
Must distinguish between incremental and spiral
Concrete example shows difficultly
Several options for action
SPADE
web.mit.edu/lean
©Massachusetts Institute of Technology Tim Spaulding- 032603 2
ACTDs
(Advanced Concept Technology Demonstrations)
•
•
•
•
•
Program started in 1994 to mitigate the cycle time problem
2 to 4 year effort to build a prototype
Congress approves money before specific projects are
selected (~ $1b per year)
If successful, projects enter the normal acquisition process
Global Hawk (and others) slowed down in transition
Transitions represent a “use and learn” cycle, and have
proven difficult to fund
web.mit.edu/lean
©Massachusetts Institute of Technology Tim Spaulding- 032603 3
•
Concrete Example: Space Based Radar
1) Digital Terrain and Elevation Data (DTED)
• 8 satellites
• Small apertures
2) Imaging (SAR) and limited ground movement target indication
(GMTI)
• 16 satellites
• Larger apetures
3) Better SAR and full tracking capabilities
• 22 satellites
web.mit.edu/lean
©Massachusetts Institute of Technology Tim Spaulding- 032603 4
Funding, $B
Iteration 1
Iteration 2
Use and
Learn
FY 03
FY 04
FY 05
FY 06
Iteration 1
FY 03
User Utility
Iteration 3
FY 04
Use and
Learn
FY 07
FY 08
FY 09
Iteration 2
FY 05
FY 06
FY 07
FY 10
FY 11
FY 12
FY 13
FY 14
Iteration 3
FY 08
FY 09
FY 10
FY 11
FY 12
FY 13
FY 14
FY 12
FY 13
FY 14
Incremental
Use and
Learn
Spiral
Use and
Learn
FY 03
FY 04
FY 05
FY 06
FY 07
FY 08
FY 09
FY 10
FY 11
Funding, $B
Spiral
Iteration 2
Iteration 1
Iteration 3
Use and
Learn
Use and
Learn
FY 03
FY 04
FY 05
FY 06
FY 07
FY 08
FY 09
X
FY 10
FY 11
FY 12
FY 13
FY 14
X
Plan
Program
Plan
Program
“Use and learn” not incorporated
Funding, $B
Incremental
Iteration 1
FY 03
FY 04
Iteration 2
FY 05
FY 06
X
Plan
FY 07
Iteration 3
FY 08
FY 09
X
Program
Plan
Program
FY 10
FY 11
FY 12
FY 13
FY 14
Funding, $B
Spiral
Iteration 1
Iteration 2
Iteration 3
Use and
Learn
FY 03
FY 04
FY 05
FY 06
Use and
Learn
FY 07
FY 08
FY 09
FY 10
FY 11
X
FY 12
FY 13
FY 14
X
Plan
Program
Plan
Program
“Use and learn” incorporated, but timeliness reduced
Funding, $B
Incremental
Iteration 1
FY 03
FY 04
Iteration 2
FY 05
FY 06
X
Plan
FY 07
Iteration 3
FY 08
FY 09
X
Program
Plan
Program
FY 10
FY 11
FY 12
FY 13
FY 14
•
Conclusion: One of three things will happen
1) Use and learn will be ignored, funds will be programmed early.
REAL SPIRAL DEVELOPMENT NEVER MATERIALIZES
2) Timing will be delayed. SPIRAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
BUT TOO SLOWLY
3) FUNDING STRUCTURE WILL CHANGE
web.mit.edu/lean
©Massachusetts Institute of Technology Tim Spaulding- 032603 8
•
Changing the Funding Structure:
•
Program in anticipation of success
• Undefended money is problematic
• Services hesitant to set aside money
•
Circumvent the PPBS process
• Undermines the strategic planning purpose of PPBS
• Who makes decrementing decisions?
•
Create separate budget category like ACTDs
• Congress loses control, must be small programs
• Loss of contractor control?
web.mit.edu/lean
©Massachusetts Institute of Technology Tim Spaulding- 032603 9
•
Recommendation: Something like WRAP
•
Warfighter Rapid Acquisition Program
• Came out of CORONA, borrowed from Army
• On the order of $20 M/yr (6 Projects in FY01)
• Too small for spiral development on large scale
• Need something bigger….
web.mit.edu/lean
©Massachusetts Institute of Technology Tim Spaulding- 032603 10
SPADE
(Spiral Program Acquisition and Development Enabler)
•
Money used for second and third iterations of projects designated as “spiral”
•
Money contained in its own POM. Programs receiving SPADE funds chosen
by Air Force leadership
•
Only previously funded programs (programs with their own POM) are eligible
for funding.
•
Anything funded with SPADE is immediately placed in the POM for further
funding. (Transition funding is only available to those programs that will be
continuing on to a second iteration)
•
Total size is comparable to ACTD pool (approx $1B) (represents 1/20 of AF
procurement budget)
web.mit.edu/lean
©Massachusetts Institute of Technology Tim Spaulding- 032603 11
Without a way to reduce the two-year cycle, “use
and learn” spiral development cannot be realized
web.mit.edu/lean
©Massachusetts Institute of Technology Tim Spaulding- 032603 12
•
BACKUP SLIDES
web.mit.edu/lean
©Massachusetts Institute of Technology Tim Spaulding- 032603 13
Funding, $B
SPADE
SPADE
Iteration 2
Iteration 1
Iteration 3
Use and
Learn
Use and
Learn
FY 03
FY 04
FY 05
FY 06
FY 07
FY 08
FY 09
FY 10
X
Funding, $B
Program
Iteration 1
Plan
FY 13
FY 05
FY 06
FY 14
Program
Iteration 2
Use and
Learn
FY 04
FY 12
X
Plan
FY 03
FY 11
Use and
Learn
FY 07
FY 08
X
Plan
Iteration 3
FY 09
FY 10
FY 11
FY 12
FY 13
X
Program
Plan
Program
FY 14