to 102 Jimmie D. Chew, Christine Stalling, and Kirk Moeller; Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forest Service, USDA Forestry Sciences Laboratory, P.O. Box 8089, Missoula, MT 59807. ABSTRACT: Managers ofpublic landsare increasinglyfaced with makingplanning decisionsfor dynamic landscapeswith conflicting objectives.A modelingsystemhasbeendesignedto serveas a decisionsupport systemto help managersand resourcespecialistsintegrate the available knowledgeof vegetationchange and disturbanceprocesses,and quantify conceptsthat are often difficult to interpretfor specificlandscapes. The systemis named SIMPPLLE,an acronymtakenfrom "SIMulating vegetationPatterns and Processes at LandscapescaLEs." SIMPPLLE can be usedto help define and evaluatefuture conditionsat landscape scales,to identify areas that are moreprone to disturbancesover a given timeframe, to identify the options for influencing these disturbance processes,and to help design and evaluate different strategiesfor achievingdesiredfuture conditions.The emphasisin this article is to give an overview of the design of the system,the types of knowledge integrated,and the type of output produced. The initial validation work discussedindicatesthat the approachusedfor capturing and integratingprocessknowledgein SIMPPLLE doespredict realistic results at landscapescales.SIMPPLLEprovides managersa tool to integrate and interpret conceptsof desiredfuture conditions,range of variability, and the interaction betweenvegetation patterns and disturbanceprocesses.SIMPPLLE provides a way to help evaluateproposed management scenarioswithin a future that includesstochasticprocesses. West.J. Appl. For. 19(2):102-108. Key Words: Disturbanceprocesses,simulationmodels,'landscapemodels,insect outbreaks,wildfIre. Land managementfor the USDA ForestServiceis a continuIng evolution of designing and applying management practices in responseto changingdemandsby societyand an increasedawarenessof ecologicalconcepts.This evolution has grown from an emphasison the effects on individual plant communities to a concern with the cumulative effects on many individual communitieswithin landscapes at a range of spatial scales. Managementof landscapes attemptsto incorporateconceptsexpressedas "desired future conditions," "historic range of variability," "dynamic disturbanceprocesses,"and "interactionsbetweenprocesses and vegetationpatterns."A modeling environmentthatcaptures and integratesthe available knowledge of vegetation change and the processesthat drive the changecan assist incorporationof theseconcepts. This article presents a modeling system designed for simulating vegetationpatternsand processesat a range of spatial scales.The systemis named SlMPPLLE, an acronym taken from "SIMulating vegetation Patterns and Processesat LandscapescaLEs." Our primary objective is NOTE: Jimmie Chew can be reached at (406) 542-4171; jchew@fs.fed.us.Copyright @ 2004 by the Society of American Foresters. WJAF 19(2) 2004 provide an overview of the design of the SIMPPLLE system, the types of data and expert knowledge incorporated into the model logic, and the format of output available tousers for incorporating simulation results into landscape management planning. Examples of the work used to verifythe system's performance are presented. Model Design Criteria SIMPPLLE is designedto serve as a decision support systemto help managersand resourcespecialistsquantify and incorporateconceptsthat are often difficult to interpret for specific landscapes.Managerscan use the SIMPPLLE systemto helpdefine and evaluatedesiredfuture conditions at landscapescales,to identify whatparts of a landscapeare more prone to disturbanceprocessesover a given time frame, and to help designand eval:uatedifferent strategies for achievingdesiredfuture conditions.As with the work by Baker (1992)on modelinglandscapestructure,this modelis not intendedto predict preciselywhenand whereprocesses will occur. Rather,the objectiveis to provide a predictionof behavioraltrends. The emphasisis on behavioral validity, not on numerical precision. The relationships between trends in vegetationconditions and insect activity suchas the maturing of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) and an increase in mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonusponderosae) activity are more important than the actual acres of mountainpine beetle activity simulated.The simulatedrelationshipbetweenthe mountainpine beetle activity andfire processesis more important than the simulated acres of either process.Spatially explicit output from single silllulations can be provided as possible outcomesand the output from multiple stochasticsimulationscanbe usedto estimate the probability of disturbance processesand vegetation attributes. The systemis designedto be consistentwith the field inventories and satellite imagery that exist for the range of landscapescaleswithin the ForestService.The vegetation attributes are limited to a dominant speciesor cover type, size class and structure, and canopy closure. Nonspatial attributes can co~mefrom queries on vegetationdatabases maintained by the ForestService.The use of a geographic information system(GIS) providesthe meansto identify the setof neighborsfor eachplant communityso thatthe unique pattern of each landscapecan influence disturbanceprocesses.A variety of commercially available GIS software packageshave beenused. However,becauseof the goal of designingSIMPPLLE as a managementtool for the Forest Service,customizedArcInfo utility functions and ArcView project files have beendeveloped. The initial emphasisin systemdevelopmentwas to provide the means to representand integrate the available knowledge on disturbanceprocessesand vegetationconditions and patterns. Much of the initial knowledge on relationships betweendisturbanceprocessesand betweenprocessesand vegetationpatternhas come from expertopinion. Rigorousmethodologiesare available for the stepsof quantifying expert opinion (Reynoldsand Holsten 1994). However, for this first version of SIMPPLLE, this information was gatheredthrough a series of workshops with silviculturists, ecologists,entomologists,and pathologistsfrom the ForestService. With the system's design,the initial knowledge from both expert opinion and researchresults can be easily replaced as new information and researchresults becomeavailable. General Model Characteristics SIMPPLLE was designedto be spatially explicit because of the significanceof the interactionbetweenprocessesand vegetation patterns (Forman and Godron 1986, Turner 1989). Eachexisting vegetationunit is representedindividually. A probability for eachdisturbanceprocessis calculated for each vegetationunit. Each unit's unique set of neighborshas an influence on the probability. Simulations can be made individually or in multiples. Multiple simulations are usedto provide an averagelevel of conditionsand a range. Simulations can be made with or without fire suppressionand vegetationtreatments.Changeis simulated based on either decadeor yearly length time steps. Model Components Existing Vegetation The attributes used to describe a vegetation unit must addressthree importantcriteria. First, the attributesmustbe possibleto obtain from availableinventorydata; second,the attributesmustbe of sufficient detail to enablepredictionof processprobability; and third, the attributes must contain enough information to make interpretations for specific resourcessuchas wildlife habitat.The inventoriesavailable are often a combinationof data from on-the-groundsurveys and interpretationfrom aerial photographsor classified satellite imagery. An existing vegetationunit is describedby a combinationof habitattype (Pfister et al. 1977), dominant species,size-classand structure, and density. These attributes are consistentwith the hierarchical inventory system used by Northern Regionof the ForestServiceand are sufficient to use other knowledge that has beendeveloped such as the hazardrating systemsused for mountainpine beetle (Amman et al. 1977), or westernspruce budworm (Choristoneuraoccidentalis)(Carlsonand Wulf 1989). Potential Vegetation States Although vegetationdevelopmentis a processof continuously changing species,size class, structure,and density characteristics,it is often convenientfor modelersto view the community as making transitions from one state to another(Kesselland Potter1980).The continuumis divided into a suitable number of statesbased on the knowledge availableand the resolutionneededto addressthe management issues.It is assumedthat the likelihood and intensity of disturbanceprocessescan be associatedwith thesediscretevegetationstatesbasedon the interactionof vegetation with fuel loadings,life history characteristics,dispersalinteractions,andresourceavailability (Pickettand McDonneil 1989). This approachhas been used in representingboth succession(Arno et al. 1985)and fIfe ecologyrelationships (Fischerand Bradley 1987).Eachcombinationof dominant species, size-class/structure,and density by habitat type group that can representan existing vegetationunit is identified as a potential vegetation state within SIMPPLLE. Each potential state storesthe knowledge of what disturbance processescan occur and what the next vegetation state would be. The collections representa sequenceof vegetationstateswith processesbeing the agentsfor change from one stateto anotherwithin a decadeinterval. Processes The processesrepresentedin this initial versionare succession,fire, mountain pine beetle in lodgepole pine and ponderosapine, westernspruce budworm, and root fungi. Tree regenerationis also treatedas a process.Thereare two types of knowledge for eachprocess:the knowledgeassociated with the probability of the processoccurring,and the knowledge associatedwith the processingspreading.The fire processes,westernsprucebudworm,and mountainpine beetle all may spreadfrom one unit to another.Most rating systemsfor insect and diseaseprocessesuse very specific stand level data (Amman et al. 1977, Carlson and Wulf WJAF 19(2) 2004 103 104 1989,Stevenset a1. 1980).As a result, severalassumptions and generalizationswere incorporatedinto the model logic to work with the level of input data associatedwith the vegetation attributes at landscapescales. Many of these assumptionsare based on expert opinion from silviculturists,fIre managers,and ecologists.A significant assumption associatedwith this representationof knowledgeis that only the most dominantoutcome of a processis given. Multiple outcomesfor the sameprocessare not represented.If more than one outcomeis importantto represent,thena variation of the processis created.For example,mountainpine beetle in lodgepole pine is representedas two processes:lightmountainpine beetle and severe-mountainpine beetle. Treatments tationattributesandan acreagegoal to let SIMPPLLE selectunits to treat. SIMPPLLE System Output The system tion units system provides output and the entire provides occurrence the for processes probabilities, the a process originated a unit. unique simulation process changes sequence can be examined 1). The acres of attribute the acres of disturbance landscape by time Different scenarios of treatment applications can be evaluated and compared without having to make changes within the collection of potential states. Vegetation treatments can have a combination of impacts: they can change a vegetation state; change the probabilities and types of other processes; or they may change all of these components. For example, a thinning can change the structure class from multistory to single story, which also changes the type of fire process that may occur from stand-replacing to light- can be produced severity. Treatments can be used to change the vegetation p~ttern that can influence probability and spread for some processes. Treatments in this current version of SIMPPLLE the entire include thinning to control density of the plant community, final harvest practices used for regenerating a new plant community, and burning treatments used to change species composition and structure of the community. The user interface is used to build a schedule of treatments to assign to View. The attribute and process units can also displayed specific potential vegetation units or it can be used to identify vege- can identifies the events emissions produced fire suppression for individual value Light westernspruce budwonn Root disease Root disease Root disease Standreplacing fire of in origin, the the frequency and display an average from the multiple simulations for each time be fIres, density, and step summaries for and the high and low (Table 4). frequencies indi- in Arc- for individual "probability" maps in ArcView. Interpretations being added habitat (Otus for various as reports. for wildlife Flammeolus), arcticus), resource Examples values are currently are reports for acres of species such as Flammulatted black-backed woodpeckers and potential old-growth (Pi- conditions. Model Verification Verification of the model is an ongoingprocess.We are currentlyevaluatingthe ability of the systemto simulatefIre behaviorthatis comparableto the large fIre complexesfrom year 2000in the Bitterroot Valley in Montana.We areusing FARSITE (Finney 1998)on samplefire eventsto verify the "type-of-fIre" and "fIre-spread" logic within SIMPPLLE. The ForestVegetationSimulator(Stage1973,Wykoff et al. Table 2. Output for the entire landscape from a single simulation showing the acres of disturbance processes by decade time steps. Process Time step 1 Succession Light westernspruce budwonn Severewesternspruce budwonn Light lodgepolepine mountain pine beetle Severelodgepolepine mountain pine beetle Ponderosapine mountain pine beetle Standreplacing fire Mixed severity fire Light severityfire Root disease 350,350 3,969 5,340 975 699 946 59,119 21,330 2,844 9,178 WJAF 19(2) 2004 The step can be mapped as and the display for each unique size-class/size-structure, landscape events, to, smoke simulations, 3). The time attributes project. of fire it spreads (Table vidual results ArcView process values Table These and prescribed For multiple includes of each for individual number the units by wildfIres units unit (Table for the entire simulation. a customized to a single and acres or the attributes that lists costs. species, disturbance co ides Processthat occurred mapped can be made owls Table 1. Display of output from a single simulation for an individual vegetation unit showing the vegetation state and the disturbance process for each time step. be Reports from processes step for a single in a report state, or spread step for the landscape. 2 displays units processes the their vegetation a unit for each vegetation by time vegetaunits, modeled, in within of each vegetation are displayed individual For individual disturbance and whether The both landscape. Time step 2 Timestep3 387,665 1,936 709 648 444 2,193 32,000 11,066 1,756 16,333 Time Table 3. Output from at which each attribute Species value Frequency PP-DF "'Ii PP multiple simulations occurred. Size-class Frequency for an individual unit showing the frequency Frequency (%) Density value Frequency (%) Large 23 2 10 Pole 33 1 90 Medium 24 Succession 4 72 TS 20 Light severity fire 12 value (%). 90 10 Time step Process Succession vegetation mean ac ~ Light westernspruce budwonn Severewesternspruce budwonn Light lodgepolepine mountain pine beetle Severelodgepolepine mountain pine beetle Ponderosapine mountainpine beetle Standreplacing fire Mixed severity fire Light severity fire Root disease 26,499 196 336 10 0 22 14,560 11,984 2,786 285 1982) will be used on sample plant communitiesto verify the information in SIMPPLLE's collectionof potentialvegetation states,the time spe~tin a size class,and the resulting next state. The verification work that has beencompleted consists of the comparison of past change in an actual landscape with stochastic simulations of the same landscape,the comparison ?f cycles of disturbanceprocesses from long-term simulations with how we think the processesinteract, and the comparisonof the simulation of a relatively small year 2000 fire with the actual event. The Coram Experimental Forest in northwesternMontana was used as the initial data set to test the SIMPPLLE system.Coram contains(j,800 ac of mountainousterrain on the FlatheadNational Forest.The comparisonof the Coram landscapewas made using timber types delineated in the early 1930s.For model verification, 10 6-decadestochastic simulations were made with SIMPPLLE starting with the 1930 vegetation. These simulations take into accountthe vegetationtreatmentsthat have beenimplementedin connection with researchwork in the ExperimentalForestover the last 6 decades.The averagefrom thesesimulationsfrom the 1930 vegetationresulted in a simulated current landscape that has less seedlings/saplingsand more pole and medium size classesthan found in the actual currentlandscape.The simulationsalsoresultedin more acresfor mixed western larch (Larix occidentalis) and Douglas-fIr (Pseudotsugamenziesii)stands than exists in the current Process value ~t Mixed severity fire Light westernspruce budworm (%) Time step 1 minmax ac step 2 mean ac Time step 2 minmax ac 20,697-48,643 0-981 0-1,681 49,913 257 134 13 41,389-53,245 31-1,043 0-50 0--0 0-77 1,006-18,376 1,790-15,141 1,159-3,888 0-1,340 0 369 3,484 851 771 886 0-636 0-51 0-0 111-850 1,017-8,248 384-2,022 374-1,278 375-1,906 inventory.The differencein the speciesis attributableto the difference in the way the inventorieswere assigneda cover type. The 1930svegetationmapsdelineatedmixed-species communities. Mixed communities of western larch and Douglas-fir were common, while communities dominated by single specieswererare. The currentdelineationis based on the summarizationof plot datathatdeterminesa plurality of basal area by species.The differencein the smallersize classes,seedling/saplings,pole, and medium was determined to be the resultof SIMPPLLE moving the vegetation units throughthesesize classestoo fast. The initial time in these size classescomes from a summarizationof Forest VegetationSimulatorruns on samplestandsthat represent these forest types by habitat type groups for the entire Northern Region. The observedgrowth rates from unpublished datacollected in spacingstudiesfor Coram provided a betterbasis for the time to move throughthe smallersize classesfor this part of the region. Fire is the only disturbanceprocess for which records have beenkept at Coram.Table 5 comparesthe averagefIfe attributes from the original ten simulations with the fIfe attributes that actually occurred over the last six decades. Threeattributesare compared,the numberof fIfe events,the percentageof fIfe eventssuppressedatlessthan 0.25 ac,and the total numberof acresburned. Using the past10-yearfIfe occurrence for the Flathead Forest as the basis for the probability of a fIfe event resulted in significantly greater Table 5. Comparison of three fire attributes from the actual occurrence at Coram Experimental Forest, averages from the original ten simulations, and averages from revised ten simulations. Actual fires Original simulation Revised simulation WJAF 19(2) 2004 105 ., number of simulated fIre events. The percentageof these events that were suppressedat less than 0.25 ac was much lower than actually achieved.The simulatedburned acres were gl::eaterthan those actually burned. Changeswere madeto provide the user flexibility to basethe probability of fIre events on a more localized area,to be able to adjust fIre suppressionlogic for differencesin landownershipand road status,and to provide accessto adjustthe type-of-fire and fIre-spreadlogic. The resultsof using thesechangesare shownin the revised-simulationsrow in Table 5. Thereis an improvement in the numberof fire events and the percent suppressedat less than 0.25 ac. However,the acresburned are still abovethe actual.Additional adjustmentsto the fire logic could get the simulation values closerto the actual. The application of the systemto numerousother areas within the Northern Region have provided the opportunity to continue model verification and fine tuning of its performance. Long-term simulations without fIre suppressionfor 400 years on a 1.5 million-ac area provide the basis for examining how simulatedcycles for processescompareto our expectedrelationships betweendisturbanceprocesses. Figure 1 displaysthe resulting cycles of stand-replacingfire, mixed-severityfire, and mountainpine beetle in lodgepole pine from one long-term simulation. Significant levels of mountainpine beetle activity tend to occur only after periods of minimal fire activity that allow time for lodgepole pine to mature and becomesusceptible.When a significant level of mountainpine beetle activity occurs creatingfuels, it is followed by an increasein the level of fire. Cycles of mixed-severityfITe are more frequent than the cycles of stand-replacingfITeand throughtheir reductionof densityin lodgepolepine standskeep mountainpine beetle activity at a minimum. The fITesof 2000 in the Bitterroot Valley of Montana provide anotheropportunityto verify SIMPPLLE's performance.A comparisonof one of the smallerfITesof 11,475 ac was made with a simulation starting a fITe event in the sameplant community in which the fITeoccurred.Figure 2 displays the actualfITe and the simulatedfITe.Differences betweenthe two were the result of inaccuratemapping of what was typed as nonforest,rock, and assumptionsconcerning fITe suppression.Areas that were identified for SIMPPLLE as rock were actuallylow-densityforestedareas that did supporta fire. Areasalongthe wildernessboundary that SIMPPLLE's suppressionlogic indicated would be suppressedwere not, but continuedto spread.Both of these areas need additional emphasis.The need for improved typing of the vegetationusedfor SIMPPLLEand an expansion of the fire suppressionlogic will be addressedin the additional work being done on the large fire complexes from the year 2000. However,the current performanceof modeling the fire processis consideredadequate.Using multiple simulations over decadesto create probability maps for processesand vegetationattributes can involve 700,000 600,000 , , ., 500,000 . . . . , 400,000 ~ ~ « 300,000 200,000 . . . . " " , . . . . " " , ' .' , . . ., , 0 .' , , , , , , , , , , ' ' ' . . ' ' ' ' 1\' , ", ' ~, ,\, ~ , 1 2 3 .. .... .. ~I'" 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 12131415161718192021 I ~ , " ., ,. ., " ,. ., ,. , , ., ., ..., " " '. '. " '. " , , .. .'. .." , . . . 100 ,000 . , , ," " .. , ,. ..., . ." , .., , " , ,. , , . A~' . /3~ , , . , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , I .. .' .. 222324252627282930313233343536373839 40 Decade Figure 1. Cycles of mixed severity fire, stand-replacing fire, and mountain pine beetle from multiple simulations of a historic representation of a 1,O86,OOO-ac landscape on the Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forests. 106 WJAF 19(2) 2004 Figure 2. Comparison of the actual Blodgett Trail Head fire with the simulated fire. hundredsof fire events.The degreeof accuracyconsidered appropriatefor landscapeplanningis not the samerequired for planning fire suppressionactivities on an ongoing fire. Model Application The fIrst version of SIMPPLLE was delivered to the Northern Regionin January1997.To accountfor variability within the habitattype groupsin the region,SIMPPLLE has beenstructuredto provide a Westsideand Eastsideoption. The system has been applied to a number of landscapes within Montana and Idaho for the Northern Regionand the Bureau of Land Managementat scalesfrom 26,800 to 1.8 million ac. Its use has ranged from project planning to landscapeassessment, and analysis of the managementsituation prior to forest plan revision. Each level of analysis involves different uses of the system.The comparisonof mountainpine beetle activity in lodgepolepine for a number of alternativesin a landscapeon the HelenaNational Forest (Figure 3) is typical of its use at the projectplanning level. The potential for providing desired vegetationconditions can be evaluated spatially over time. The change in vegetation attributes as a result of both treatmentsand disturbanceprocesseswere mappedby decadesfor a number of Figure 3. Acres of mountain pine beetle activity in lodgepole pine for alternatives on the Poorman Landscape, Helena National Forest. All levels are the average of five simulations. Alternatives include both treatments and fire suppression. The "no-suppression" level does not include fire suppression or treatments. The "with-suppression" level includes fire suppression but no treatments. managementalternativesfor a landscapeon the Kootenai National Forest. The vegetation attributes selected were thoseusedto identify potential old-growth conditions. Additional versions of SIMPPLLE are currently being developedf9r use in a study that comparesvarious models for evaluatingfuel treatmentsat landscapescales(Weise et al. 2000). Within this application,SIMPPLLE is used with the MAGIS optimization and schedulingmodel(Zurring et al. 1995) to quantify risks from disturbanceand schedule fuel treatmentsat landscapescales(Jonesand Chew 1999). Versions of SIMPPLLE are being developedfor Yosemite National ParkandAngelesNational Forestin California,the Kenai Peninsula in Alaska, Gila National Forest in New Mexico, Conecuh National Forest in Alabama, HuronManisteeNational Forestin Michigan, and the Blackwater StateForest/EglinAir ForceBasein Florida. The mixture of ownershipsin theseareasdisplaysthe ability to use SIMPPLLE for lands other than National Forests. Discussion SIMPPLLE provides a modeling tool for managersto integrateand interpretconceptssuchas desiredfuture conditions, range of variability, and the interaction between vegetationpatternsand disturbanceprocesses.SIMPPLLE offers an environmentin which the knowledge developed by scientistsand managerscan be integratedinto the quantification of potential vegetative conditions, disturbance processprobabilities,and the logic for the interaction between processesand vegetationpatterns.SIMPPLLE provides a way to help evaluateproposedmanagementscenarios within a future that includes stochasticprocesses.Proposedschedulesof managementactivities may not be possible whenthe likely occurrencesof numerousdisturbance processesare considered. Without the consideration of likely disturbanceprocesses,effects of no action alternatives are often underestimated. Stochasticsimulations with SIMPPLLE can help in designing managementstrategiesby quantifying what processesmay have a higher occurrenceon the landscape,or what parts of the landscapeare more prone to disturbance processes.Doesoneusea managementstrategythat focuses action in those areas that have the highest likelihood of severedisturbanceevents with the intent of reducing the disturbanceevents?Doesoneusea strategyof treatmentsto createa vegetationpatternthat reducesprocessspread?Or doesone use a strategyof putting investmentsin management actions on those parts of the landscapethat have a lower likelihood of significant change to minimize the chanceof losing investments? In the initial versionsof SIMPPLLE, the emphasisis on the ability of the systemdesignto captureour knowledgeof vegetationchange and the interaction between vegetation patternsanddisturbanceprocessesat differentspatialscales. Future work will place an emphasis on improving the knowledge within the system.The initial validation work with Coram ExperimentalForestin NW Montanaindicates that the approachusedfor capturingand integratingprocess WJAF 19(2) 2004 107 knowledge in SIMPPLLE does predict realistic results at landscapescales. Complete documentationof the systemis under developmentas a generaltechnical report, and additional documentationand examplesof use canbe found on the website www.fs.fed.us/rm/missoula/4151/SIMPPLLE. Literature Cited ARNo, S.F., D.G. SIMMERMAN,AND R.E. KEANE. 1985. Forest succession on four habitat types in western Montana. USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. 1NT-177. 74 p. AMMAN, G.D., M.D. MCGREGOR,D.B. CAHILL, AND W.H. KLEIN. 1977. Guidelines for reducing losses of lodgepole pine to the mountain pine beetle in unmanaged stands in the Rocky Mountains. USDA For. Servo Gen. Tech. Rep. 1NT-36. 19 p. BAKER,W.L. 1992. Effects of settlement and fife suppression on landscape structure. 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FSH 2409.17 Silvicultural practices handbook, supplement No.6, regional stocking guides. Northern Regional Office, Missoula, MT. 78 p. WEISE, D.R., R. KiMBERLIN, M. ARBAUGH, J. CHEW, G. JONES, J. MERGENIAN, M. WIITALA, R. KEANE, M. SCHAAF, AND J. VAN WAGTENDONK.2000. A risk-based comparison of potential fuel treatment trade-off models. P. 96-102 in Proc. from the joint fire science conference and workshop, Vol. 11,Neuenschwander, L.F., and K.C. Ryan (eds). Univ. of Idaho, Moscow, ID. WYKOFF,W.R., N.L. CROOKSTON, ANDA.R. STAGE. 1982. User's guide to the stand prognosis model. USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. INT -133. 113 p. ZUURING,H.R., W.L. WOOD, ANDJ.G. JONES.1995. Overview of MAGIS: A mu1ti-resourceanalysis and geographic information system. USDA For. Servo Res. Note INT-RN-427. 6 p.