Management and Non -
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Management and Non-Constant Climate John Townsley Okanogan & Wenatchee NF A Pragmatic Approach to Management for Potential GCC Observe Anticipate Take Action Monitor Adapt Observe What are the current disturbance regimes? What are the existing forest types? How is existing vegetation associated with soils, topography, and elevation? What is the existing landscape pattern? How have disturbance regimes changed over time? – What factors have contributed to change in disturbance regime? Anticipate possible direction and magnitude of change Use excellent science Realize climate is a non-constant Realize PNW climate has already changed from when today’s forests were established Use existing tools to assess vegetation change Work with research to identify new tools Slide from Kelly Redmond, WRCC Reno, NV Slide from Allan Carroll,BC FS Predicted change in annual mean temp 2041-2060 versus 1971-1990 °C 4.0 a) Regional focus - western North America • Predicted climate change impacts become increasingly heterogeneous at broader spatial scales. 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 b) Future window ≤50 years – host range ≈static • A tree species established on a site will persist there long after suitable conditions for establishment have disappeared (Payette 1993). Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling & Analysis, CRCM3.6.1 following IPCC IS92a scenario Climate change induced-range expansion: invasion of the boreal forest? Lodgepole pine Ponderosa pine Mountain pine beetle Jack pine Lodgepole/jack hybrids Slide from Allan Carroll, BCFS Take Action Use excellent science! Identify disturbances likely to affect vegetation. Identify resilient forest vegetation composition, structure, and density Build landscapes that are resilient to disturbance. Treat stands to build landscapes. Proactive Action vs Inaction “The longer the interval between Disturbances (fire, insect epidemic, etc.) the more likely the effect will be severe”. Harrod 2005 Possible Actions Use excellent science!! Develop a consensus for action! Identify areas with high values at risk Target treatments to buffer these areas Create patterns of high resilience patches Accept that many (most?) lands can not be treated Where treatments can occur… treat as much as possible as quickly as possible Possible Actions Reduce forest density/Reduce fuels Favor early seral tree species Use all tools available – Rx Fire – Silvicultural treatments (thinnings, regen cuttings, commericial/non-commerical) Encourage investment in industrial infrastructure – Reliable supply – Stable regulations Monitor Use excellent science!!! Use qualitative and quantitative methods Assess effectiveness of treatments at multiple spatial and time scales Assess treated & untreated areas … what can we learn? Communicate assessments – decision makers – Public – natural resource managers Adapt Use excellent science!!!! Adjust actions based on monitoring and new science Continue to act! Critical Need – Information What does the research say? Can scientists + managers be allies? How can we engage citizens – social acceptance of action? Does the legal framework facilitate or inhibit action? Can we use existing tools? What infrastructure do we need? What will economics and budgets allow? Look for Opportunity Coal becomes diamonds Olives in England Vineyards in eastern Washington
