SIMPPLLE/MAGIS
Landscape Level Fuel Treatment Scenario Analysis
South Utah – Beaver River Area
Joint Fire Sciences Project
11/4/03
Jimmie Chew
Greg Jones
Rebecca McFarlan
Kirk Moeller
Robin Silverstein
No Action and six treatment scenarios were run using SIMPPLLE and MAGIS for the
South Utah, Beaver River area. Each scenario was represented by twenty, five-decade
simulations, with fire suppression, and no extreme fire probability. Spreadsheets
containing scenario averages and standard deviations for processes, species, size-classes,
densities, and fire suppression costs will be provided on a CD.
The treatments in the Utah model were adapted from Jim Merzenich’s (VDDT)
development of scenarios for the Beaver River study area. Treatments included:
• Treating grass and shrub communities to reduce the encroachment of pinyon and
juniper, which is three times higher than historic levels, by mechanical and
prescribed burning treatments.
• Reducing pinyon and juniper communities by prescribed burning in oak
woodlands.
• Prescribe burning, sanitation salvage, and regeneration harvest in dry forested
areas. Reducing the level of white fir and Douglas-fir in dry forested areas which
historically were dominated by ponderosa pine and aspen.
• Prescribed burning and regeneration harvest in moist forests by removing spruce
and fir, intended to reverse the aspen decline.
The SIMPPLLE/MAGIS scenarios were adapted from Jim Merzenich’s guidelines and
are as follows:
1) NA - no active management
2) SCN 2 - active management for ecological restoration of western and mountain
sage,75% mechanically treated and 25% prescribed burning.
3) SCN 3 - current treatment level
4) SCN 4 - treatments in western sage and mountain sage are reversed from to
75%burning/25% mechanical in scenario 4.
In addition to the above SIMPPLLE/MAGIS created sage grouse scenarios for
comparison. Each sage grouse scenario was modeled using the existing sage grouse
range as a priority treatment area. Scenarios 2SG, 3SG, and 4SG treated winter sage
grouse range, then brooding range, before treating all other areas. The basis behind the
sage gross scenarios was creating optimal habitat for sage grouse with equal acreage in
perennial grass, open shrub, and closed shrub.
The following table shows the overall treatment acreage totals and the percent of the
landscape treated.
Table 1: Treatment acreage and percent of total landscape
SCN 2
1
2
3
4
SANITATION SALVAGE
2780 2470
0
0
PRESCRIBE BURN
6280 7965 4595 1990
MECHANICAL SEED
12100 1895
0
0
PRESCRIBE UNDERBURN
5240 3590 3190
265
PRESCRIBE BURN SEED
5280 3345 3320
490
CLEARCUT WITH RESERVES 2070 1815 1825 1410
5
0
2120
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
5250
22950
13995
12285
12435
7120
% of LANDSCAPE
1%
7%
4%
3%
4%
2%
TOTAL
33750 21080 12930
4155
2120
74035
21%
SCN 2-SG
SANITATION SALVAGE
PRESCRIBE BURN
MECHANICAL SEED
PRESCRIBE UNDERBURN
PRESCRIBE BURN SEED
CLEARCUT WITH RESERVES
TOTAL
INFEASIBLE TREATMENTS
PRESCRIBE BURN SEED
1
2
3
4
2820 1570 1085
400
6125 7975 4530 2095
15635 11455 8305 5300
5075 3630
445
590
5280 5280 5290 3805
2070 2070 1770 2075
37005 31980 21425 14265
5
130
2265
2055
870
2550
1840
9710
TOTAL
6005
22990
42750
10610
22205
9825
114385
% of LANDSCAPE
2%
7%
12%
3%
6%
3%
33%
SCN 3
SANITATION SALVAGE
PRESCRIBE BURN
MECHANICAL SEED
PRESCRIBE UNDERBURN
PRESCRIBE BURN SEED
CLEARCUT WITH RESERVES
TOTAL
1
2
940
930
1795 1900
5220 4205
1780 1735
1735 1760
695
725
12165 11255
0
0
0
10
10
0%
3
950
1115
3370
1745
1720
745
9645
4
945
680
3370
1335
1115
675
8120
5
930
680
0
1100
1120
495
4325
TOTAL
4695
6170
16165
7695
7450
3335
45510
% of LANDSCAPE
1%
2%
5%
2%
2%
1%
13%
SCN 3-SG
SANITATION SALVAGE
PRESCRIBE BURN
MECHANICAL SEED
PRESCRIBE UNDERBURN
PRESCRIBE BURN SEED
CLEARCUT WITH RESERVES
TOTAL
INFEASIBLE TREATMENTS
MECHANICAL SEED
PRESCRIBE BURN SEED
TOTAL INFEASIBLE
TREATMENTS
1
2
3
4
930
950
950
950
1455 1900 1065
740
5205 5210 5250 5225
1715 1715 1665 1665
1790 1740 1785 1770
680
705
700
680
11775 12220 11415 11030
5
930
795
3340
1300
1625
695
8685
TOTAL
4710
5955
24230
8060
8710
3460
55125
% of LANDSCAPE
1%
2%
7%
2%
2%
1%
16%
15
15
15
15
0%
0%
30
0%
SCN 4
SANITATION SALVAGE
PRESCRIBE BURN
MECHANICAL SEED
PRESCRIBE UNDERBURN
PRESCRIBE BURN SEED
CLEARCUT WITH RESERVES
TOTAL
1
2
2805 2425
6330 7935
3440
25
5145 3615
13925 4765
2070 1885
33715 20650
3
0
4600
0
3385
0
1675
9660
4
0
1980
0
185
0
1490
3655
5
0
2225
0
0
0
0
2225
TOTAL
5230
23070
3465
12330
18690
7120
69905
% of LANDSCAPE
1%
7%
1%
4%
5%
2%
20%
SCN 4-SG
SANITATION SALVAGE
PRESCRIBE BURN
1
2805
6140
3
610
4655
4
160
2180
5
620
2210
TOTAL
5705
23145
% of LANDSCAPE
2%
7%
0
0
0
0
0
2
1510
7960
0
0
0
0
MECHANICAL SEED
PRESCRIBE UNDERBURN
PRESCRIBE BURN SEED
CLEARCUT WITH RESERVES
TOTAL
INFEASIBLE TREATMENTS
PRESCRIBE BURN SEED
5240 2725 2560 1465
870
5190 1770 1225
990
1740
15740 12935 9235 8360 3900
2075 1890 1845 1755 1880
37190 28790 20130 14910 11220
0
0
0
0
10
12860
10915
50170
9445
112240
4%
3%
14%
3%
32%
10
0%
Maps were created for only 1 timestep for each scenario depicting the different
treatments and treatment areas within the Utah landscape. Although scenarios did not
retreat the same acres within the 5-timestep period, we thought the first timestep map was
adequate to provide some insight into the spatial differences.
Figure 1 – Scenario 2 treatments, timestep 1
Figure 2 – Scenario 2-SG treatments, timestep 1
Figure 3 – Scenario 3 treatments, timestep 1
Figure 4 – Scenario 3-SG treatments, timestep 1
Figure 5 – Scenario 4 treatments, timestep 1
Figure 6 – Scenario 4-SG treatments, timestep 1
TOTAL LANDSCAPE RESULTS:
Processes:
Both the total fire from averages of 20 simulations and the fire percentages per fire type
indicate that there is no significant difference between scenarios in terms of fire acreage
over a 5 decade time period (figure 7 and 8).
Figure 7 – Total fire acreage per fire type from averages of 20 simulations per scenario
UTAH - TOTAL FIRE FROM AVERAGES OF 20
SIMULATIONS
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
SRF
MSF
LSF
NA
SCN2
SCN2SG
SCN3
SCN3SG
SCN4
SCN4SG
Figure 8 – Total fire type percentages, from averages of 20 simulations per scenario
UTAH - FIRE PERCENTAGES PER FIRE TYPE
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
SRF
MSF
LSF
NA
SCN2
SCN2SG
SCN3
SCN3SG
SCN4
SCN4SG
Fire event totals show that there is a slight difference in the scenarios from one fire size
class to the other (Table 2). Figures 9, 10, and 11 depict differences in fire events
between scenarios. This data is taken from a single simulation for each scenario that is
considered representative of the total simulations.
Table 2 – Fire event totals over 5 decades per scenario
5 DECADE FIRE EVENT TOTALS
0 to 0.25 0.26 to 9 10 to 99 100 to 299 300 to 999
96
234
0
19
27
NA
85
215
0
27
22
SCN2
93
228
0
17
31
SCN2-SG
74
241
2
32
15
SCN3
74
241
2
32
15
SCN3-SG
85
211
1
17
21
SCN4
92
214
0
34
16
SCN4-SG
1000+
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Figure 9 – 5 decade fire event totals for the 300-999 acre class per scenario
EVENTS
UTAH - 5 DECADE FIRE EVENT TOTALS
300-999 ACRE
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
NA
SCN2
SCN2SG
SCN3
SCN3SG
SCN4
SCN4SG
Figure 10 – 5 decade fire event totals for the 100-299 acre class per scenario
UTAH - 5 DECADE FIRE EVENT TOTALS
100-299 ACRE
40
EVENTS
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
NA
SCN2
SCN2-SG
SCN3
SCN3-SG
SCN4
SCN4-SG
TOTAL
376
349
369
364
364
335
356
Figure 11 – 5 decade fire event totals for the 0-0.25 acre class per scenario
UTAH - 5 DECADE FIRE EVENT TOTALS
0 - 0.25 ACRE
120
EVENTS
100
80
60
40
20
0
NA
SCN2
SCN2-SG
SCN3
SCN3-SG
SCN4
SCN4-SG
Fire Suppression Costs:
Fire suppression costs also show that there is only a slight difference between scenarios.
A $600,000 difference between the highest average, scn2-sg and the lowest average cost,
scn4-sg (figure 12). Scn4-sg, scn3-sg, and scn3 all display lower suppression costs. This
difference is due to the redistribution of fire sizes to move into the 100-299 acres class
from the 300-999 acre class. It appears that these three treatment scenarios did have a
favorable impact on reducing fire sizes.
Figure 12 – Total fire suppression costs for 5 decades, per scenario
UTAH- TOTAL FIRE SUPPRESSION COST BASED
ON THE TOTALS OF DECADE AVERAGES
$15,800,000
$15,600,000
$15,400,000
$15,200,000
$15,000,000
$14,800,000
$14,600,000
NA
SCN2
SCN2SG
SCN3
SCN3SG
SCN4
SCN4SG
Species:
By focusing primarily on the restorative aspects of the treatments, the species acreage
depicts a considerable amount of change that easily can be seen by comparing the current
species map with the species map by the end of the 5th timestep, fifty years. The
encroachment of Pinyon and Juniper into Oak and Sage communities was treated,
allowing Sage and Oak to dominate these sites at a lower density level. The loss of aspen
to conifers was treated with a significant increase in Aspen (figures 14-19).
Figure 13 – Current Species
Figure 14 – Scenario 2 species timestep 5
Figure 15 – Scenario 2-SG species timestep 5
Figure 16 – Scenario 3 species timestep 5
Figure 17 – Scenario 3-SG species timestep 5
Figure 18 – Scenario 4 species timestep 5
Figure 19 – Scenario 4-SG species timestep 5
The following two figures (20-21) for Spruce-fir/Aspen and Montane-fir/Aspen show a
decrease that corresponds to the increase in Aspen in figure 22.
Figure 20 – Spruce-Fir/Aspen species averages per decade per scenario
UTAH -SF-A SPECIES AVERAGES FOR 20 SIMULATIONS
18000
16000
NA
14000
SCN2
ACRES
12000
SCN2-SG
10000
SCN3
8000
SCN3-SG
6000
SCN4
4000
SCN4-SG
2000
0
0
1
2
3
DECADE
4
5
Figure 21 – Montane-fir/Aspen species averages per decade per scenario
UTAH - MF-A SPECIES AVERAGES FOR 20 SIMULATIONS
2500
NA
2000
ACRES
SCN2
SCN2-SG
1500
SCN3
1000
SCN3-SG
SCN4
500
SCN4-SG
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
DECADE
Figure 22 – Aspen species averages per decade per scenario
UTAH - A SPECIES AVERAGES FOR 20 SIMULATIONS
25000
NA
20000
ACRES
SCN2
SCN2-SG
15000
SCN3
SCN3-SG
10000
SCN4
SCN4-SG
5000
0
0
1
2
3
DECADE
4
5
The decrease in cover types that contain pinyon and juniper in figures 23 and 25 is
accounted for by an increase in two cover types that have pinyon and juniper removed,
figures 24 and 26.
Figure 23 – Mountain mahogany-oak-pinyon juniper species averages per decade per scenario
UTAH - MM-OK-PJU SPECIES AVERAGES FOR 20
SIMULATIONS
18000
16000
NA
14000
SCN2
ACRES
12000
SCN2-SG
10000
SCN3
8000
SCN3-SG
6000
SCN4
4000
SCN4-SG
2000
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
DECADE
Figure 24 – Oak species averages per decade per scenario
UTAH - OK SPECIES AVERAGES FOR 20 SIMULATIONS
25000
NA
20000
SCN2
ACRES
SCN2-SG
15000
SCN3
SCN3-SG
10000
SCN4
SCN4-SG
5000
0
0
1
2
3
DECADE
4
5
Figure 25 – Western sage-pinyon juniper-perennial grass species averages per decade per scenario
UTAH - WS-PJU-PG SPECIES AVERAGES
FOR 20 SIMULATIONS
20000
NA
18000
SCN2
ACRES
16000
14000
SCN2-SG
12000
SCN3
10000
SCN3-SG
8000
SCN4
6000
SCN4-SG
4000
2000
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
DECADE
Figure 26 – Western sage- perennial grass species averages per decade per scenario
UTAH - WS-PG SPECIES AVERAGES FOR 20 SIMULATIONS
75000
70000
NA
ACRES
SCN2
65000
SCN2-SG
SCN3
60000
SCN3-SG
SCN4
55000
SCN4-SG
50000
0
1
2
3
DECADE
4
5