PACHIVES USE OF BAYESIAN INFERENCE TO ESTIMATE DIVERSION LIKELIHOOD IN A PUREX FACILITY AiGSA Jggy rEINST U FTECH-NOLOGY By Oliver Russell Rodewald - SUBMTITED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREES OF BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING AND MASTER OF SCIENCE IN NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING AT THE MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY JUNE 2011 0 2011 Massachusetts Institute of Technology. All rights Reserved. Signature of Autihor: 6 ~ /- Certified By: L/ y Oliver Russell Rodewald Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering May 24, 2011 ? , Michael W. Golay Professor of Nuclear Science and Engineering Thesis Supervisor Certified By: (/ A Accepted By: - Charles W. Forsberg Research Scientist Thesis Reader I t, Mujid Kazimi CO Professor of Nuclear Engineering Chair, Department Committee on Graduate Students 1 2 Use of Bayesian Inference to Estimate Diversion Likelihood in a PUREX Facility By Oliver Russell Rodewald Submitted to the Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering on May 24, 2011 in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the degrees of Bachelor of Science in Nuclear Science and Engineering and Master of Science in Nuclear Science and Engineering Abstract Nuclear Fuel reprocessing is done today with the PUREX process, which has been demonstrated to work at industrial scales at several facilities around the world. Use of the PUREX process results in the creation of a stream of pure plutonium, which allows the process to be potentially used by a proliferator. Safeguards have been put in place by the IAEA and other agencies to guard against the possibility of diversion and misuse, but the cost of these safeguards and the intrusion into a facility they represent could cause a fuel reprocessing facility operator to consider foregoing standard safeguards in favor of diversion detection that is less intrusive. Use of subjective expertise in a Bayesian network offers a unique opportunity to monitor a fuel reprocessing facility while collecting limited information compared to traditional safeguards. This work focuses on the preliminary creation of a proof of concept Bayesian network and its application to a model nuclear fuel reprocessing facility. Thesis Supervisor: Michael W. Golay Title: Professor of Nuclear Science and Engineering Thesis Reader: Charles W. Forsberg Title: Research Scientist 3 Acknowledgements I am heartily thankful to the many wonderful people who have helped me in the process of completing my thesis. With their guidance and understanding, I hope that I have been able to complete work that is of value to all people of goodwill. First and foremost I would like to thank the numerous professionals with whom I had the opportunity to interact. Drs. Bathke, Collins, Ehinger, Howell, Krebs, and Regalbuto generously made themselves available to me, affording me the opportunity to understand many elements of the reality of how spent nuclear fuel reprocessing works in the real world. These informative discussions allowed me a chance to understand the sheer scale and complexity of the challenges in this area of nonproliferation at a depth to which no textbook can go. Beyond the understanding of how real-world fuel reprocessing works, I would like to thank Dr. Tompkins for helping me translate this understanding into a way of creating a tool that can be used to detect diversion. His extensive knowledge in seemingly anything vaguely related to any kind of statistics-Bayesian or otherwise-coupled with his willingness to answer even the most simple of my questions guided me to success in creating simple models to detect diversion. I would not have been able to produce coherent work without the guidance of Dr. Leishman and Professor Golay. Dr. Leishman provided me with high-level guidance and inspiration crucial to completing this work. Professor Golay's insistence on an appropriate scope, focus, and consideration of numerous options in the conduct of this work was key to ensuring that I was able to complete something coherent. I would also like to thank Professor Golay for his patience, guidance, and understanding throughout this process. Last, but most certainly not least, I would like to thank Heather Barry and Clare Egan in the Department's office for being a valuable resource in navigating the administrative aspects of the thesis submission and degree completion process. Their kindness and the clarity with which they provided me information on this process most definitely mitigated my fears of the unknown and allowed me to sleep easier at night. 4 Table Of Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................... 2 Acknow ledgem ents.................................................................................................... 4 Table Of Contents ...................................................................................................... 5 List of Figures .......................................................................................................... 7 List of Tables.................................................................................................................. 7 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 8 1.1 Overview of Spent Fuel Reprocessing Techniques .................... 1.1.1 Basics of Solvent Extraction .................................................................... 9 10 1.1.1.1 Use of Two Immiscible Phases......................................................... 11 1.1.1.2 Role of Distribution Coefficients...................................................... 12 1.1.1.3 Role of Flow rates ............................................................................. 13 1.1.2 Sim ulation of Solvent Extraction Processes ........................................... 14 1.2 Process M anipulations Causing Diversion .................................................... 14 1.3 Background on the Detection of Diversion .................................................... 15 1.3.1 Determ inistic Nuclear Chem ical M odels .................................................. 16 1.3.2 Other Approaches.................................................................................... 17 1.4 Use of Bayesian Networks to detect Diversion.............................................. 18 1.5 Approach used in this W ork........................................................................... 19 2 The M odel Fuel Recycling Facility......................................................................... 20 2.1 Basic Design..................................................................................................... 20 2.1.1 Sizing the facility...................................................................................... 21 2.1.2 Flow sheet Design..................................................................................... 21 2.1.3 Equipm ent and reductants in the M FRF.................................................. 23 2.1.4 Diversion Scenarios.................................................................................. 25 2.1.5 Lim itations of the M FRF Design.............................................................. 25 2.2 Operating Lim its ............................................................................................. 26 2.2.1 Flow Rates................................................................................................... 27 2.2.2 Hydroxylamine Concentration................................................................ 29 2.2.3 Nitric Acid Concentration ........................................................................ 30 2.2.4 Inextractable Nitrate Concentration ...................................................... 30 2.2.5 Tem perature ........................................................................................... 31 3 Diversion Characterization.................................................................................... 31 5 3.1 Diversion Defined........................................................................................... 32 3.2 Fissile Material of Interest.............................................................................. 32 3.3 Diversion Timeframe ...................................................................................... 32 3.4 Advers a ry Cha ra cterization ........................................................................... 34 3.5 Fa cility Type and Bounds................................................................................ 35 3.6 Sum mary ........................................................................................................ 37 4 Diversion Detection.............................................................................................. 37 4.1 Regression Analysis ......................................................................................... 37 4.2 Creation of a Bayesian Network..................................................................... 39 4.2.1 Plausible Process Manipulations ............................................................. 40 4.2.2 States of full knowledge ........................................................................ 42 4.2.3 State of No Knowledge ........................................................................... 43 4.2.4 States of Partial Knowledge..................................................................... 43 4.2.5 Increasing information and Inference on Facility State ......................... 45 4.2.6 Structure of Bayesian Network................................................................ 46 4.2.7 Generation of Conditional Probability Tables ........................................ 47 4.2.7.1 M anipulable Process Parameter Nodes .......................................... 47 4.2.7.2 Hypothesis Node.............................................................................. 49 5 Use of Bayesian Network to Detect Diversion.................................................... 50 5.1 Normal Operating Conditions ........................................................................ 51 5.2 Malfunction Case............................................................................................ 52 5.3 Diversion Through Raffinate ......................................................................... 54 5.2 Second Case: Diversion through Solvent Recycle Stream .............................. 57 5.5 Analysis of Bayesian Network Performance in Diversion Detection............. 61 6 Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 62 6.1 Future Work .................................................................................................. 63 6.1.1 Sampling of Variables and Adversary Preference ................................... 63 6.1.2 Open-source Solvent Extraction of Fuel Reprocessing Facility Software ... 64 6.1.3 Interpretation of results of Updated Hypotheses .................................. 64 6.3 Possible Applications..................................................................................... 65 Bibliography ................................................................................................................ 66 Appendix A: SEPHIS Calculations Pertaining to the M FRF ...................................... 68 A.1 M FRF in steady-state, normal configuration ............................................... 68 6 A.2 MFRF in Malfunction Configuration............................................................. 72 A.3 MFRF in Raffinate Diversion Scenario........................................................... 83 A.4 MFRF in Solvent Recycle Diversion Scenario ............................................... 94 Appendix B: Conditional Probability Tables.............................................................. 105 B.1 8-hour Conditional Probability Tables ............................................................ 106 B.2 12-hour Con ditional Proba bil ity Ta bles .......................................................... 108 B.3 16-hour Conditional Probability Tables .......................................................... 110 B.4 24-hour Conditional Probability Tables .......................................................... 112 B.5 48-hour Conditional Probability Tables .......................................................... 114 B.6 72-hour Conditional Probability Tables .......................................................... 116 List of Figures Figure 1: Overview of W ork .................................................................................... Figure 2: MFRF First Cycle Flowsheet ...................................................................... Figure 3: Flow rate Data from Barmwell Test Run..................................................... Figure 4: Schematic Flows heet with Diversion Streams Indicated......................... Figure 5: Diversion Process ...................................................................................... Figure 6: Distributions associated With States of Knowledge................................ Figure 7: Effect of Increasing Information on Facility State .................................... Figure 8: Structure of Bayesian Network ............................................................... Figure 9: MFRF Malfunction Case........................................................................... Figure 10: Raffinate Diversion Scenario.................................................................. Figure 11: Bayesian Updating of Eight Hour Network............................................. Figure 12: Solvent Recycle Diversion Scenario ...................................................... Figure 13: Solvent Recycle Diversion in Bayesian Network.................................... 20 22 28 35 36 44 46 47 53 55 56 59 60 List of Tables Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table 1: Qualitative Actions Enabling Diversion ...................................................... 2: MFRF First Cycle Input and Output Flows .................................................. 3: Potentially Manipulable Parameters ........................................................ 4: Example Conditional Probability Tables..................................................... 5: Prior Probability of Diversion .................................................................... 6: Probability of Diversion in Normal Conditions........................................... 7: Probability of Diversion in Malfunction Case............................................ 8: Probability of Diversion in Raffinate Scenario ........................................... 9: MFRF Configuration in Solvent Recycle Diversion .................................... 10: Probability of Diversion in Solvent Recycle Scenario............................... 7 15 23 38 48 50 51 53 57 58 60 1 Introduction Spent nuclear fuel reprocessing was originally developed using the PUREX method, which separates plutonium and uranium from irradiated targets, producing uranium and plutonium each in a separate product stream. Much of the work on reprocessing was undertaken in the early days of nuclear energy and done for defense rather than civilian purposes. As the civilian nuclear industry started to grow, fear about shortages in the world's supply of uranium provided motivation for reprocessing spent nuclear fuel to offset the perceived shortage of natural uranium. With time, however, nuclear fuel reprocessing became politically unfavorable as well as expensive. As a result, by the 1980s there was very little reprocessing in the United States. It is also important to note that reprocessing had not become a very large and well established business by this time either, and that much of the information regarding operating reprocessing facilities is tightly controlled either by industry or the government[1]. Nuclear fuel reprocessing is largely absent from the civilian nuclear power establishment in the United States, and there are few countries that are actively involved in reprocessing. The leading countries that reprocess spent nuclear fuel are generally either already weapons states under the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) or have no desire to create a weapons program. That said, rogue states have claimed civilian use in order to gain access to nuclear technology while actually pursuing the development of nuclear weapons. A rogue state might accept the terms of the NPT to gain access to technologies and build reprocessing facilities without eliminating the desire to produce nuclear weapons. Furthermore, the current system of safeguards at 8 fuel cycle facilities is imperfect, as the system of safeguards is often thought of as needlessly inexpensive or ineffective, depending on how safeguards are implemented. To ensure that diversion of fissile material is not occurring, that is, to ensure that all fissile material is being re-purposed as fuel, the IAEA monitors the inventory of fissile material flowing through a reprocessing facility. The IAEA has set forth goals of detecting significant quantities of fissile material, which amount to the minimum amount of material one could use to make a nuclear device. The amount of material contained within a significant quantity of material is in the matter of a few kilograms, whereas the annual facility throughput for a real industrial reprocessing facility is in the hundreds or thousands of metric tons. As a result of the amount of material needed for a nuclear device being very much less than the annual throughput of an industrial reprocessing facility, there is concern that the process of measuring the fissile material inventory at a reprocessing facility could take a sufficiently long time that a measure of sufficient accuracy to detect the disappearance of a significant quantity is next to impossible. Additionally, such a measurement-if it occurs-is bound to be expensive. 1.1 Overview of Spent Fuel Reprocessing Techniques Spent nuclear fuel is generally accepted to contain more than a preponderance of reusable material. Separating this reusable, fissile and/or fertile material from the waste can be done in a number of different ways. Each method of reprocessing has distinct advantages and disadvantages that allow this process to be uniquely tailored for what is desired in a specific context. 9 In the future, a robust separations process that is resistant to diversion is highly desired. Several candidate processes have emerged to include variations on the UREX processes as well as a number of pyrophysical and pyrochemical processes. While these processes certainly offer promise to future generations, they have not yet been demonstrated as feasible at the industrial level. Indeed, the chemical processes demonstrated at industrial scales are primarily aqueous processes. Of the aqueous processes, the PUREX process emerged as the favored process because it achieved high levels of product decontamination while minimizing the volume of solid waste characteristic of other processes. PUREX also avoids the use of extremely volatile chemicals characteristic of other processes[2]. The PUREX process, being the most widely used process in the world today, then, is the subject of the work reported here. 1.1.1 Basics of Solvent Extraction PUREX is an abbreviation for Plutonium and Uranium Extraction, and, as the name suggests, the process isa liquid-liquid solvent extraction process. Solvent extraction processes, in general, are quite versatile and can be tailored to separate out certain elements from others. In addition to being used to separate uranium and plutonium from spent nuclear fuel, solvent extraction processes have been applied in a number of other areas in which the separation and purification of a single element is desirable; copper, nickel, and precious metals are just a few of the metals that can be separated and purified using a solvent extraction process [3]. 10 There is a great deal of literature detailing the specific aspects of the chemistry of solvent extraction as applied in a number of different settings; forthe separation of uranium and plutonium from spent nuclear fuel, it is unlikely that better resources than Long's Engineering for Nuclear Fuel Reprocessing and Benedict's Nuclear Chemical Engineering can be found[4][5]. The purpose of this section is to provide a very high level overview of how uranium and plutonium are separated from fission products and actinides in spent nuclear fuel. 1.1. 1.1 Use of Two Immiscible Phases In a PUREX plant, the spent nuclear fuel is sheared or chopped, and placed into a hot nitric acid solution. The hot nitric acid solution dissolves the spent nuclear fuel. At this point, fission gases are captured and treated appropriately. Before the nitric acid solution containing the uranium, plutonium, and various wastes is allowed to enter the solvent extraction process, the acidity is adjusted to the appropriate levels to ensure the process is run effectively. Once the acidity of the nitric acid solution containing the uranium, plutonium, and various wastes is adjusted to an appropriate level, this feed solution is allowed to enter the solvent extraction portion of the process. The feed solution is initially an aqueous solution, and it is brought into contact with an organic solvent. The organic solvent used in the PUREX process is typically n-dodecane, which can be thought of as highly purified kerosene. Added to this solvent issome amount of tributyl phosphate. Aqueous and organic streams separate themselves based on density, and the two are generally immiscible. 11 That the two strea ms are immiscible and have different densities ultimately allows separation to occur. The separation of desired elements from the undesired elements cannot occur unless the two streams are brought into physical contact with each other in such a way that allows the desired elements to transfer phase-basically allowing them to jump from the aqueous phase to the organic phase or vice versa. The ability for the dissolved substances to transfer from one phase to the other is dependent upon the area of contact between the two phases. Several types of equipment may be used to cause this contact, but there have been three types of equipment that have been historically used in reprocessing facilities: mixer-settlers, pulsed columns, and centrifugal contactors [6]. Each type of equipment maximizes the area of contact between the two phases through thorough mixing. It is beyond the scope of the work reported here to delve into the pros and cons of each type of equipment. In the most general sense, these three types of contacting equipment allow three ways do what one may do in the kitchen mixing oil and water with a whisk: mixing the oil into water in small droplets then letting the water and oil separate back out, except instead of occurring in a kitchen with innocuous ingredients, this contact occurs in a hot cell with highly radioactive and generally dangerous solutions. 1.1.1.2 Role of Distribution Coefficients At any given point in the solvent extraction process, each element will exhibit a certain prefere nce for one phase-either aqueous or organic-over the other. This preference can be expressed in terms of a distribution coefficient, which gives the ratio of the concentration of the element in the organic phase to the concentration of the 12 element in the aqueous phase. The ability to manipulate the distribution coefficient is key to extracting the uranium and plutonium from spent nuclear fuel with very high levels of purity. In a standard reprocessing facility, the distribution coefficient is affected by a number of factors, most markedly the nitric acid concentration of the aqueous phase and the valence state of the element. The valence state of the element can be changed by the presence of other chemicals that essentially reduce the valence state of a given element; the model facility developed for the work reported here uses hydroxylamine nitrate, but this is by no means the only reducing agent available to a facility operator. 1.1.1.3 Role of Flowrates The last piece of solvent extraction comes to the use of flowrates to regulate how the mass of materials moves through the process. Uranium and plutonium form chemical complexes with tributyl phosphate. It is important to note that most of the other elements in spent nuclear fuel cannot form these chemical complexes with tributyl phosphate. Without the ability to form these complexes, uranium and plutonium would not move from the aqueous phase into the organic phase. When all of the tributyl phosphate is utilized and there is no empty or available tributyl phosphate to form complexes with uranium or plutonium, that extra uranium or plutonium is left in the aqueous phase. The ratio of the flowrates, aqueous to organic, essentially allows the appropriate amount of tributyl phosphate to be used in the process atany given time. Because altering flowrates adjusts the abundance of available tributyl phosphate complexing sites relative to the amount of uranium and plutonium in solution, the 13 flowrate ratio also determines the number of times an aqueous phase and organic phase must be brought into contact with each other. This effect is very important to the design of a facility's flowsheet as well as ensuring that a facility given a particular flowrate will function as desired. 1.1.2 Simulation of Solvent Extraction Processes A number of different simulations exist to predict the behavior of the solvent extraction portion of a spent nuclear fuel reprocessing facility as well as other portions of a given facility. By and large, however, these codes are not generally available to the public. [7] For a very basic level of simulation SEPHIS-MOD4 may be used. SEPHIS, written in FORTRAN 77 was modified to enable modeling of the PUREX process and released as SEPHIS-MOD4 in 1979 [8]. While certainly an old code, SEPHIS has been validated in its ability to model the flow of uranium and plutonium through the solvent extraction process [9], and it has been used in the simulated detection of diversion [10]. Because SEPHIS has been validated to accurately model the flow of uranium and plutonium in the solvent extraction process and because the SEPHIS-MOD4 source code is available to the general public, it is the tool that is used to simulate the model fuel recycling facility used for the work reported here. 1.2 Process Manipulations Causing Diversion With the ability to simulate the solvent extraction process well in hand, there are a number of process manipulations of interest. Some of these process manipulations will result in an off-spec product, while others will result in diversion as defined in 14 subsequent sections. At a very basic level, diversion through process manipulation places fissile material in an aqueous stream or an organic stream where fissile material is not normally seen. Taken as a departure from normal conditions, Table 1: Qualitative Actions Enabling Diversion lists a few changes that can be made. These actions in the table may be taken individually or in combination with other actions to cause diversion; the extent to which these actions are undertaken is dependent upon a large number of factors, most of which go beyond the scope of the work reported on here. Diversion into Aqueous Stream Diversion into Organic Stream Reduce aqueous nitric acid concentration Increase aqueous stream flowrate Decrease organic stream flowrate Increase reductant concentration Increase aqueous nitric acid concentration Decrease aqueous stream flowrate Increase organic stream flowrate Decrease reductant concentration Table 1: Qualitative Actions Enabling Diversion In the work reported here, the qualitative actions enabling diversion are evaluated on their credibility as pathways to diversion. Further, diversion scenarios in both the aqueous and organic stream are simulated to test the Bayesian networks used to detect diversion. 1.3 Background on the Detection of Diversion Several approaches have been used to detect the diversion of uranium and plutonium from a nuclear fuel reprocessing facility. Many of these approaches are best qualified as deterministic approaches involving direct knowledge of a model facility. Models not involving purely deterministic approaches and approaches from areas outside the nuclear sector can also potentially be modified and applied to the problem of diversion detection. 15 As is practiced by the IAEA, safeguards and diversion detection relies upon strict material accountancy. This is to say that prevention of diversion means that the amount of material flowing into a facility must be equal to the amount of material flowing out of a facility. This material balance is obtained through the use of various sensors of concentrations, flowrates, gamma and neutron counts, and myriad othe r types of measurements all taken at key measurement points in the process. The data is logged, verified, and from time to time, audits are done to ensure that no material is missing. This accountancy forms the backbone for the deterministic nuclear chemical models that seek to improve the performance of such a system. 1.3.1 Deterministic Nuclear Chemical Models Many of the deterministic models simply track material over time to enable accounting. One of the earliest of these models is the Schneider model of 1980 [11], which used SEPIHS to account for inventories and time history of these inventories by assuming direct knowledge of key variables such as flow rates and concentrations. The work of Burr and Wangen over a decade later uses cumulative sum and Mahalanobis distances to detect departures from normal conditions and the accumulation of diverted material unaccounted for [12][13]. Both of these models look at material flowing from tanks in one part of the process to another. Zeng has completed research that provides a probability that material diversion is occurring by introducing randomness into the solvent extraction process dynamics[14]. By accounting for the random variation seen over the course of normal plant operation, the material unaccounted for at a facility can be compared the amount of material one 16 would expect to be unaccounted for. Significant differences are then indicative of diversion. Cipiti and Rickers' work has coupled SEPHIS to MATLAB to enable simulation of an entire facility from head to tail. This model takes into account what one would expect to see from the equipment used to make safeguards measurements, and the model is used to propose additional measurement points to increase the ability to detect diversion[15][16]. 1.3.2 Other Approaches Work in chemical process control outside the nuclear sector has resulted in the examination of additional methods of fault detection. In a sense, if diversion can be modeled as a type of fault, these methods could be equally applicable to a nuclear fuel reprocessing facility. Caccavale's work deals with detecting faults with sensors to determine whethe r or not a fault reported is a fault within the plant and its process or simply a fault within the sensor[17]. Huang's work deals with Bayesian methods in plant control, focusing on sensor data in incorporating this data into the control of a given plant. Of particular interest is the Huang's approach to aggregate data from multiple sources to detect a potential fault and then raise or squelch an alarm[18]. Perhaps most applicable is the work of Nielsen and Jensen who inferred a Bayesian network from the operating data from an industrial production facility. While this industrial production facility is a power plant ratherthan a fuel reprocessing facility, should data from a fuel reprocessing facility be available for researchers to use, it is likely that a similarapproach could be used to detect diversion with good fidelity [19]. 17 1.4 Use of Bayesian Networks to detect Diversion In the absence of hard data to detect dive rsion from a spent fuel reprocessing facility, expert-created Bayesian networks can be used as a means of systematically gathering and collecting information that either affirms or denies a hypothesis. Bayesian networks are directed acyclic graphs that allow the user of the network the ability to make inferences with whatever data is at hand. These inferences are made by Bayesian updating wherein evidence gathered is used to update a prior distribution to a posterior distribution. In general terms, the prior distribution is what one would expect with no data at hand, and the posterior distribution is what one would expect as additional data are gathered. It is important to note that Bayesian networks are driven heavily by the use of expert opinion and subjective probability, but this will always be the case when dealing with nuclear proliferation. Proliferation has occurred only a small number of times and is reliant upon an actor deciding to proliferate. As such, it is very difficult-if not impossible-to objectively quantify the likelihood that an actor will proliferate; this means that subjective expertise will be used in some form or another. Use of subjective expertise in a Bayesian network is preferred over use of such expertise in qualitative assessments because in a Bayesian network this expertise is incorporated in an explicit way that allows one to make judgme nts both about the process used in the assessment as well as the system itself in ways that a simple qualitative assessment would not allow. In this way, the Bayesian network can function as a diagnostic tool, diagnosing the facility state as either normal or diversion. While perhaps imperfect, a number of tools 18 and approaches do exist to enable information to be effectively gathered from experts [20]. As information is gathered and placed into the network, numerous software packages to create Bayesian networks are readily available [21]. 1.5 Approach used in this Work The work reported here explores the likelihood of diversion to occur in a Model Fuel Reprocessing Facility and examines the feasibility of detecting diversion through the use of a Bayesian network that relies on subjective expertise. In order to create a Bayesian network that detects diversion with some level of effectiveness, a number of steps needs to be taken. Each of these steps enhances and utilizes the subjective information that is ultimately systematically compiled into a usable form-that of the Bayesian network. This section covers the creation of the Model Fuel Recycling Facility, characterizes what diversion is, and outlines how to detect diversion using this information and the accumulation of subjective expertise. The contribution of the work reported here is to compile information from a number of different sources and utilize this information to create a proof-of-concept Bayesian network that can be used to distinguish between facility states, ultimately detecting diversion. Throughout this process, subjective expertise is used extensively; this is illustrated in Figure 1: Overview of Work in which the generalized tasks are presented in rectangular boxes and the types of subjective expertise used is presented as text in ovular shapes. The general idea of the work presented here is to use this subjective expertise with a reduced data set-only flowrates are measured in the cases presented in the later 19 section 5 Use of Bayesian Network to Detect Diversion; this limited set of data collected stands in contrast to the much larger set generally collected by traditional safeguards relying on strict material accountancy. Lvloe SE.PHIS Smiinations -. Regression FittingCae sariSat Advel Ojicz-tinstDefine Divvmion GenerateCP'Ts Distributions Malfmuction on Variables Figure 1: Overview of Work 2 The Model Fuel Recycling Facility 2.1 Basic Design The purpose of the Model Fuel Recycling Facility is to provide a simple, realistic model of a PU REX facility. In providing a realistic environment, the MFRF provides a set of data that allows the Facility State Diversion Detection Model to be evaluated. In order to do this, it is paramount that the MFRF be a simple and accessible model; for this reason it is based on publicly available flowsheets and run in open-source code. Additionally, the MFRF is sized in such a way as to make detection of diversion by traditional methods difficult. For example, measures such as material unaccounted for (MUF) of a very large facility are also expected to be very large. 20 2.1.1 Sizing the facility The MFRF is sized to accommodate roughly half of the spent nuclear fuel produced in the United States in a given year. This is a rough estimate calculated as follows: it is assumed that there are 100 operating reactors in the United States, and the MFRF will take the spent fuel from half of these reactors. At 250kg of heavy metal per fuel assembly, 500 fuel assemblies per reactor, one third of all fuel assemblies replaced during and outage, and an outage every eighteen months, the MFRF will process approximately 1390 MTHM/yr. Detecting diversion at such a large facility is likely to be more difficult than at a smaller facility because the mass flow rates are sufficiently high that small manipulations to the process can result in more material unaccounted for such a change would produce in a smaller facility. Nevertheless, the approach used to detect likely diversion at the MFRF is also be applicable to smaller facilities because this approach is somewhat independent of being able to determine the inventory of a facility; rather, the approach focuses on the state of the facility. 2.1.2 Flowsheet Design The MFRF is designed to use a multiple cycle low-acid PUREX flows heet. The MFRF flows heet is conceptually based on the low-acid flowsheets provided in Nuclear Chemical Engineering and Engineering for Nuclear Fuel Reprocessing, though the MFRF flowsheet reproduced provides a greater level of detail than is provided by either Long 21 or Benedict [4][5]. Even though the use of the Model Fuel Recycling Facility assumes that multiple cycles are used, waste backcycling is not explicitly accounted for in this work. The focus of this work is on the most basic aspect of the plant-the first cycle. Diversion in the second and third plutonium cycles would likely propagate changes back to the first cycle, the effects of which are beyond the scope of this work. The MFRF uses the first-cycle flowsheet as illustrated in Figure 2: MFRF First Cycle Flowsheet. Also included are characterizations of the input and output flows under normal steady-state operating conditions. Normal operating conditions are chosen for relative stability and adjusted using a one-at-a time method. Figure 2: MFRF First cycle Flowsheet 22 Fresh Solvent A 65.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SF Feed 14.1 1.25 285.0 3.0 0.0 0.03 FP Scrub 100 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fresh Solvent B 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pu Strip 14.0 0.30 0.0 .0.0 0.07 0.07 U Strip 100.0 0.03 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rafrmnate 9.612xI1 7.254x10-lo PU Product 1.253x10mD 4.194x10-u3 U Product 5.420x10"4 3.818x10") Solvent Recycle 5.169x10 8.638x10-'3 0.00x19 0.00x100 0.00x100 2.880x1&P 5.587x10-M 6.792x10*m 5.425x10-"1 0.00X190 0.00x100 0.00x1&0 9.32010* 0.00x10I L.892x104 - Table 2: MFRF First Cyde Input and Output Flows 2.1.3 Equipment and reductants in the MFRF Above all, the MFRF is designed to be a simple test-bed for the Bayesian method of detecting diversion. As such, it is designed to be readily compatible with SEPHIS-MOD4, an open-source code writte n in 1979 for solvent ext raction processes. SEPHIS-MOD4 simulates mixer settler banks that thoroughly mix the aqueous and organic liquids and allows chemical equilibrium to be reached. In modeling equilibrium reached through such contacts in mixer settler banks, SEPHIS is recognized as capable both in the code manual by its author and subsequent papers [8][9]. Though SEPHIS-MOD4 can be manipulated to model pulse columns, such modeling departs from the design of the code and is not expected to remain the same level of fidelity to reality [8]. In the interest of fidelity to chemical reality, the MFRF is designed to use mixer settlers. Furthermore, for similar reasons, as SEPHIS-MOD4 models 23 - hydroxylamine as a reductant, hydroxylamine is used in the MFRF to reduce Pu(IV) to Pu(ll). The use of mixer settlers and hydroxylamine as a reductant in the MFRF provides a baseline for facility behavior and an initial example for the Bayesian approach to be evaluated for a PUREX facility. Reflecting the reality than many PUREX facilities use pulsed columns, centrifugal contactors, and other reductants, open-source tools to model facilities would certainly be useful, but it is not the purpose of the work covered herein to develop such tools. Were the findings of the MFRF to be extrapolated to other facilities using equipment other than mixer settlers, there would be a few differences in the transient responses to a change of operating conditions as follows: " Use of centrifugal contactors instead of mixer settlers would result in changes being propagated very quickly, as the residence time in centrifugal contactors is nearly negligible. The amount of material "in process" at any given point in time would also be smaller. " Use of pulsed columns instead of mixer settlers would result in changes being propagated more quickly, but changes would not be propagated as quickly as if centrifugal contactors were used. The amount of material "in process" atany given point in time would also be smallerthan that of a mixer settler facility, but much larger than that of a centrifugal contactor facility. 24 2.1.4 Diversion Scenarios The Raffinate and Solvent Recycle streams for the first cycle are considered the potential pathways for diversion. Diversion, taken as the removal of fissile material from the process, is driven largely by the product of the concentration of uranium and plutonium in the output streams and the volumetric flow rates of these streams. Further assessment of the viability of these output strea ms as possibilities for a diverter is included in subsequent sections. 2.1.5 Limitations of the MFRF Design Above all the MFRF is a simple facility run in an open-source tool, SEPHIS, designed to showcase diversion detection through determining facility state. In the interest of having a model faithful to the chemistry of PUREX reprocessing, there are some inherent limitations. The most modern equipment, such as centrifugal contactors and pulsed columns are not included. Inclusion of modern equipment, however, would not change the chemical aspects of the model situation, though the use of modern equipment would change the res ponse of the MFRF over time. SEPHIS assumes that the facility will always be in some kind of an equilibrium condition and does not accurately predict non-equilibrium conditions [22]. The unavailability of non-equilibrium conditions is a serious limitation for SEPHIS, especially when examining diversion by chemical manipulation; however, the unavailability of open-source solvent extraction programs precludes the inclusion of non-equilibrium conditions for the initial examinations of the facility state diversion detection model. 25 The MFRF in SEPHIS also does not model hold-up, nor does it model the formation of plutonium polymers. Both of these situations can result in fissile material being unaccounted for, but neither should drastically affect the performance of the facility Bayesian diversion detection model, which attempts to determine facility operator intent via the operator's manipulation of process conditions. A certain degree of holdup is recognized as a naturally occurring phenomenon in the solvent extraction process and is a burden to traditional accounting methods [23]. Plutonium polymer formation is regarded as a potential safety hazard and is not regarded as a viable diversion in the context of this work[24]. Lastly, the Model Fuel Recycling Facility only includes models of the solvent extraction portion of a spent fuel reprocessing plant. Additional diversions are possible in other areas of the plant, but they are not modeled in the MFRF. The focus of diversion detection in the context of this work is on the solvent extraction portion of the facility. Expanding this model to other portions of the facility isan opportunity for further work. 2.2 Operating Limits With the flowsheet of the model fuel recycling facility defined, an envelope of plausible operating parameters is created in order to place bounds what a facility operator could do. It is assumed that a facility operator would respect safety concems because even an operator intent on proliferating would not want to risk losing the plant due to a serious safety accident. 26 2.2.1 Flow Rates In theory, flowrates can be varied to any rate from zero to infinity, but this is not reflective of the reality of reprocessing plants as they are constructed. The limiting factors of the flowrates in plants are the number, size, and configuration of tanks throughout the different process areas, the maximum allowable pressure at any point in the piping in the facility, and the capability for air lift systems or pumps to increase or decrease flowrates from the nominal values. All of these factors that control the range of flowrates are generally not readily available in the open literature, but based on conversations with experts in the field, it is expected that the tank configuration would most likely be the most limiting factor. If tank size is the most limiting factor, and if a rapid rise in flowrates would lead to the overfilling of tanks and other problems, and if tanks could not be both simultaneously filled and emptied, then the maximum flowrate would be limited to a small margin over nominal. Data from a test run at the Barnwell facility was obtained and is represented in Figure 3: Flowrate Data from Bamwell Test Run [25]. The test run at Barnwell is a simulation of diversion while the Bamwell facility was undergoing uranium testing. The data is taken from 50 hours into the run to 150 hours into the run, a time during which the aqueous scrub flowrate is maintained roughly constant and the feed rate widely varied. 27 200 - 180 - 160 -140 - 120 - S100 - - .9 8060 40-20 0-40 60 80 100 120 140 160 rune (hr) - - - AqueousFeed Flowrate . Organic Solvent Flowrate AqueousScrub Flowrate - Total Aqueous Flowrate Figure 3: Flowrate Data from Bamwell Test Run From the Bamwell test data, one can make several observations that allow for appropriate setting of parameters for a model simulated facility such as the MFRF. The peak flowrate to average flowrate from this test data is used to set the maximum possible flowrate for any of the input streams into the first cycle of the model fuel reprocessing facility. The maximum flowrate factor used in the MFRF is 1.3, representing a maximum possible flowrate 30% above the nominal flowrate; this issupported by the Barnwell data above, which provides a physical example of abnormal and divertive behavior. Further, since the aqueous scrub flowrate is assumed to be held constant, the standard deviation associated with the oscillation about the mean is assumed to be the variation one would expect in a facility due to controller oscillations as well as 28 measurement errors of flowrates. For this data, the standard deviation is 9% of the mean flowrate. 2.2.2 Hydroxylamine Concentration Hydroxylamine can be manufactured and shipped to facility operators at a wide range of concentrations, and it seems as if the ability to keep hydroxylamine at a given concentration is not at issue. THORP is reported to receive hydroxyla mine nitrate at a concentration of 4.3M, and La Hague is reported to receive it at 1.9M. The DOE has conducted studies examining the autocatalytic reduction of hydroxylamine nitrate using concentrations as high as 16.7M. Most operating PUREX plants, however, do not even approach such high concentrations in process, as concentrations as low as 0.03M can be effective in reducing Pu(IV) to Pu(Ill) with appropriate flowsheet configuration. The driver for the maximum hydroxylamine concentration is safety through good operating practices. At high hydroxylamine concentration and nitric acid concentration, there is enough chemical energy as well as reactant species for autocatalytic reactions involving hydroxylamine nitrate with nitrous acid to occur. Nitrous acid is produced from nitric acid through various chemical reactions inherent in aqueous reprocessing. The DOE thus recommends that hydroxylamine nitrate concentration be limited to 2.OM in process [26]. For the MFRF sensitivity study, the DOE recommended in process operating concentrations seem a logical upper bound for hydroxylamine concentration. Thus 0.0M is the lower bound and 2.0M is the upper bound. 29 2.2.3 Nitric Acid Concentration Nitric Acid at high concentration in the presence of TBP has been known to cause the formation of red oil. Red oil is formed when an organic solvent containing TBP comes in contact with nitric acid, and it can explosively decompose at high temperatures, potentially damaging reprocessing facilities. It is recommended to keep nitric acid concentrations low to avoid the formation of red oil, but this threshold is far higher than that encountered with the potential for autocatalytic reactions between nitrous acid and hydroxylamine nitrate[27]. For the MFRF sensitivity study, following the DOE recommendations to avoid the autocatalytic reactions with nitrous acid and hydroxylamine nitrate seem logical. Thus O.OM is the lower bound and 8.OM is the upper bound. Even though 0.0M is the lower limit for nitric acid concentration in the sensitivity study, it should be noted that plutonium can rapidly form polymers at nitric acid concentrations at room temperature with nitric acid concentrations below 0.2M [24]. SEPHIS is unlikely to appropriately model the formation of such polymers. 2.2.4 Inextractable Nitrate Concentration There appears to be no strict reason to limit the inextractable nitrate ion in process. Of course, there are a number of undesirable operating characteristics that may arise, as a facility might cease to produce product to the desired specification, but there appears to be no safety concem associated with a high inextractable nitrate concentration. 30 As hydroxyla mine nitrate does lose the nitrate ion, the upper bound used in this work is equal to the maximum allowable hydroxylamine concentration, or 2.OM. The lower bound will be 0.0M. 2.2.5 Temperature While increasing the temperature can be desirable to change the distribution coefficients of the various elements present in nuclear fuel reprocessing, very high temperature can pose dangers both in terms of red oil reactions and autocatalytic reactions of hydroxylamine nitrate and nitrous acid. The latter of these has a lower temperature threshold, and is dependent upon a number of factors. While an operating temperature of 40C might be desirable for separation of certain components, temperatures above 70C are generally regarded as higher than the desired range. 3 Diversion Characterization The number of ways in which one could remove mate rial for a facility are essentially limitless if the sole constraint is one's imagination. As feasibility and practical concerns are introduced, the problem not only becomes more tractable, but the results of studying the problem are more fruitful. In order to provide any kind of meaningful information regarding the diversion of material from a PUREX reprocessing facility, the problem for the work reported here has been limited in several areas, most notably in the definition of diversion stipulated in this work, the type of adversary characterized, and the type of diversion allowed. 31 3.1 Diversion Defined Diversion is the willful removal of a specified amount of fissile material in a specified amount of time by a distinct adversary from a facility handling such material. The key elements to the definitio n of diversion include 1. The type of fissile material of interest 2. The timeframe of diversion 3. The characteristics of the adversary 4. The type and bounds of the facility in question 3.2 Fissile Material of Interest The fissile material of interest is plutonium. This material is chosen because it is modeled in SEPHIS, it is readily produced in all types of operating power reactors, it requires no isotopic enrichment to produce a readily fissile material, and it is chemically separable from uranium and the other elements in spent nuclear fuel. The quantity at which diversion occurs is set at eight kilograms because this is the same quantity used by the IAEA as the amount of material necessary for a single nuclearweapon. 3.3 Diversion Timeframe While it is conceivable that diversion can either be abrupt or protracted, the work reported here examines a diversion that occurs rapidly enough that were the diversion to be detected, it is plausible that the material would have left the facility by the time a coherent response could be effected. In order for this to occur, one would need to have an intimate knowledge of the particular details regarding the operation of a given facility as well as the details regarding any sort of regulatory responses to missing 32 material. In the absence of such data-which is often protected-it is possible to make guided estimates. To serve a baseline estimate of the diversion timeline from the model fuel reprocessing facility, there are a number of assumptions that can be made. It is assumed that the facility workers work in three eight hour shifts. Any measurements that need to be analyzed in a laboratory-either for safeguards purposes or for process control purposes-are taken at the beginning and ends of each shift. There is no random sampling of the chemical process. It is further assumed that a safeguards inspector will not always be at the facility, but that he can appear when necessary. For the purposes of this work, the personality of the safeguards inspector follows two rules: 1. Perturbations in any sensor data taken during the middle of the shift are detected by the safeguards inspector who will arrive at the end of the shift to find out what is happening. 2. Chemical samples taken for analysis are instantly analyzed at the end of the shift with the safeguards inspector present. In either case, the safeguards inspector will be able to prevent any diversion from continuing once he arrives onsite, but will be unable to prevent or reverse any diversion that has occurred prior to his arrival. With this set of assumptions, a diversion timeframe of eight hours is assumed, meaning that for a diversion to be successful, the adversary must remove 8kg of plutonium over a period of eight hours or less. While there are a number of legitimate 33 characterizations of timeframes that may be appropriate and while there are a number of effects not accounted for in this basic assumption, this assumption does reduce the problem of diversion to a very tractable state. In recognition that the eight hour diversion timeframe might not represent the entire scope of rapid diversions, the work reported here also covers longer intervals all the way up to seventy-two hours. In covering these longer intervals, there is greater flexibility in the assumptions made that can reflect a greater number of possible scenarios. 3.4 Adversary Characterization The adversary used in this work is considered to be highly capable, technically competent, and possessing an abundance of financial resources. The adversary is assumed to have control over the fuel reprocessing facility in question and is capable of manipulating elements of the process at will. This type of adversary can be characterized as a nation-state seeking a nuclear weapon but operating its own civilian national fuel reprocessing facility under the eye of an international safeguards agency. In such a scenario, the adversary would not be dealing with a national safeguards agency that imposes stricter materials accounting standards than an intemational body because such an agency would be expected to be complicit in the government's aims of procuring a nuclear weapon. Because of the generally very good capabilities of this adversary, the adversary is indifferent to the form of material he obtains through diversion. As long as 8kg of Pu is removed during the specified time period, the adversary considers his diversion a 34 success. This indifference to fissile material form has the effect of allowing the work to be restricted to the analysis of the first cycle in the model fuel reprocessing facility, as the most relevant differences between the first cycle and subsequent cycles issimply the concentration of the various species in solution. 3.5 Facility Type and Bounds The facility type in question is a large spent nuclear fuel reprocessing facility that uses the PUREX solvent extraction process. For the purposes of this work, the facility bounds are drawn around the flowsheet, and diversion is assumed to have occurred if fissile material is removed from the process beyond its normal bounds. This isshown in Figure 4: Schematic Flowsheet with Diversion Streams Indicated, where three caution triangles are placed next to each potential diversion stream. Note that diversion is not assumed to occur between stages, nor is it assumed to occur at any of the product streams. The product streams are assumed not to be diversion pathways because the products are still under safeguards. fresh Solvent A 30% TBP Figure 4: Schematic Flowsheet with Diversion Streams Indicated 35 This definition of diversion most certainly does not take into consideration the numerous barriers of physical protection, procedural controls, and responses to possible diversion largely because this information is both specific to each individual facility and is not available in the public domain. Truly comprehensive analysis of credible threats and credible diversion scenarios must take these additional barriers into consideration, but such analysis is beyond the scope of the problem at hand. Further, the problem investigated-the removal of Pu from the solvent extraction portion of reprocessingrepresents a single layer of defense that if improved to the point of being nearly impregnable will surely improve the overall safety of fissile material from malefactors. This is shown notionally in the diagram below, which represents successful diversion as a serial process. Focw ofthis research Figure 5: Diversion Process 36 3.6 Summary For this study, the definition of diversion is the willful removal of eight kilograms of plutonium in a time period between eight and seventy-two hours by a complicit facility operator, who may be a nation state, from the solvent extraction process of a large spent nuclear fuel reprocessing facility under international safeguards. 4 Diversion Detection In this work, Bayesian networks are created and used to detect diversion. The creation of the Bayesian network, however, could not be completed without a few manipulations to enable easy simulation of many facility configurations that lead to the capability of generating conditional probability tables. The key enabler for this rapid simulation is the use of stepwise regression analysis. 4.1 Regression Analysis With the model facility flowsheet and operating parameters defined, inputs are generated for the facility across a total of nineteen manipulable variables. These nineteen manipulable variables are presented in Table 3: Potentially Manipulable Parameters. A set of inputs designed to fill the space of possible inputs allowed under safety constraints described in the previous sections isgenerated to enable regression analysis. The number of input cases used in this work to generate to enable regression analysis is 220, and all 220 cases are run in SEPHIS. With the 220 cases being run through SEPHIS, the output data is then imported to JMP, a statistical analysis program, where regressions are fit to the data to more directly map changes in input conditions to changes in output conditions[28]. Fitting 37 regressions to the data using a stepwise technique to find the least-squares regression yielded near perfect correlations between the input and output conditions as simulated by SEPHIS. The regression equations each have several hundred terms, reflective of the squared and cross-product terms for each of the nineteen variables that could conceivably be manipulated within the safety envelope. FPScrub UStrip Pu Strip Fresh Solvent A Fresh Solvent B Flowrate. Temperature Nitr Aid Concentration Hydroxylamine Concentration Inextractable Nitrate Conoentration Flowrate Temperature Nitric Acid Concentration Hydroxy anine Concentration Inextractable Nitrate Concentration Flowrate Temperature Nitric Acid Concentration Hydroxylamine Concentration Inextractable Nitrate Conentration Flowrate Temperature Flowrate Temperature Table 3: Potentially Manipulable Parameters While the regression equation is certainly not of the same form as would be expected from an analytical equation that relies on the theory of solvent extraction, it nonetheless yields results in line with what is given by SEPHIS, which actually does model the chemistry. It is important to note that the primary reason for undertaking this regression analysis is not to discover or model the solvent extraction process for a 38 general facility; rather it is to enable prediction of the state of the MFRF more quickly than would be possible by simulating the facility configuration in SEPHIS. Further, with JMP, uncertainty distributions can be associated with each of the variables, and very large numbers of facility configuration runs can be generated to determine the likelihood of various types of diversions occurring. 4.2 Creation of a Bayesian Network Bayesian networks are used to detect diversion from the Model Fuel Recycling Facility because Bayes' theorem allows for hypotheses to be confirmed or denied as data is gathered and because Bayesian networks can incorporate subjective information and assumptions in a clear way that allows decisions to be made in the absence of less subjective data. In orde r to define the scope of the information in the Bayesian network used to detect diversion from the Model Fuel Recycling Facility, it is important to clarify assumptions. Assumptions are made in terms of plausible process manipulations, normal operating conditions, off-normal conditions, the definition of diversion, and the definition of a facility malfunction. With the assumptions behind the Bayesian network clarified, subjective expertise is used to create the structure of the Bayesian network. The Bayesian networks used are of the diagnostic type. This means that there is a single hypothesis node for which a prior probability must be assumed. This single assumption greatly simplifies the creation of the Bayesian network, as only one prior distribution needs to be assumed as opposed 39 to many. Beyond being a trick to simplify calculation of Bayesian networks, a diagnostic type network is appropriate, given the direction of causality in the network. Bayesian networks are directed acyclic graphs with arrows indicating the direction of causality. This network has as the parent node the state of the facility. The facility state is what the operator chooses it to be. This state cannot directly be observed; rather it produces evidence that can be observed. As a result, a facility operator can change the facility state, which then results in a change in the evidence observed. This is the case for using the diagnostic structure for the Bayesian networks described in the work reported here. With the structure clarified, numerous simulations are run to generate information for the conditional probability tables. 4.2.1 Plausible Process Manipulations The number of manipulable parameters in SEPHIS makes for a needlessly complex problem. In theory there are at least nineteen variables that can be manipulated to affect the PUREX process in a reprocessing facility, but the reality is that many of these variables are much more difficult to manipulate in real-world facilities. These facilities in use are designed to consistently produce a product to rigid specifications, so many measures are undertaken to ensure that the process isconsistent across time. Ensuring consistency of the process across time is enabled in part by the use of make-up tanks. Inside the make-up tanks, chemicals are mixed to their desired concentrations before they are added to the process. This is most notable for the nitric acid and hydroxylamine nitrate, both of which are added to the process at essentially 40 fixed concentrations. Because these chemicals are added to the process at fixed concentrations, and because these chemicals are coming directly from a make-up tank and not mixed on entry to the process equipment, it would be implausible to assume that a facility operator would be able to cause rapid and wild fluctuations in the concentration of any of these chemicals being added to the process. Process consistency across time isfurther ensured by samples being taken at various points for the process and from various make up tanks. This is in line with what one would rationally expect from a facility that makes a very expensive product whose disappearance not only means substantial lost revenue but also possible headaches from the IAEA or other national and international agencies who seek to ensure diversion is not occurring. Samples might be taken from the makeup tanks at the beginning or end of every shift and/or every time the chemicals are re-mixed. These samples would be reviewed by the operator to ensure that the process conditions remain consistent. The use of make-up tanks and chemical samples largely restrict the variability of process chemicals to that which would be enabled by measurement errors or equipment precision errors, both of which are assumed to be small--within 9%. This is within the generic variability generally suggested by experts [29][30]. Further, were a diverter to alter the concentration of process chemicals, one would expect a stepchange in such a concentration. With a lack of continuous variability from sources other than measure ment error or equipment imprecision, the scope of variables within the domain of control of the plant operator is reduced from nineteen to five; the five variables able to be most easily 41 manipulated by the operator are flowrates of the five input streams excluding the spent fuel stream: Fresh Solvent A, Fresh Solvent B, Fission Product Scrub, Plutonium Strip, and Uranium Strip. The further assumption here is that feed composition remains fixed. 4.2.2 States of full knowledge Even if a facility is operating under normal conditions, some variation is expected about the nominal configuration due to the precision of controls, measurement error, and other factors that will prevent an exact value from being determined. This condition and state of full knowledge reflects an elimination of all of the epistemic uncertainty of knowledge of the state; further uncertainty is simply aleatory. In dialogue with experts on reprocessing, it was determined that manipulable process variables would be expected to have standard deviations between 5% and 10% of their nominal value [29][30]. After reviewing data from a test run at the Barnwell facility presented in Figure 3: Flowrate Data from Barnwell Test Run, a standard deviation of 9% is accepted for all variables except for those relating to the income feed stream and the temperature, which are assumed to be fixed. This 9% value is used because itis supported both the Barnwell data as well as expert opinion. For the state of full knowledge, a truncated normal distribution is used because the central limit theorem gives that the mean values for normal operating conditions would tend towards a normal distribution. Truncation occurs because the MFRF is assumed never to operate outside of the limits prescribed in 2.2 Operating Limits. After the uncertainty distributions set for each of the variables, JMP is used to determine the likelihood of diversion occurring. Under normal operating conditions, 42 diversion does not occur. This result isconsistent with the expectation that a nominally configured reprocessing plant should not be diverting material out of the process erroneously. 4.2.3 State of No Knowledge For all variables for which no knowledge is assumed, a uniform distribution is used. The uniform distribution is still bounded by the operating limits of the MFRF, but there is no further assumption that is made as to the characterization of the distribution. If one is assumed to have no knowledge over any of the variables in the facility, a wide range of facility behaviors is possible. The only place in the Bayesian network where states of no knowledge-i.e. uniform distributions across the entire range of an operating parameter-are used is forthe non-flowrate parameters of the concentrations of nitric acid, hydroxylamine, and inextractable nitrate . As partial knowledge is gained, the behavior of the facility can quickly be ascertained as new information is gathered. In this way, the use of states of partial knowledge is imperative to the successful detection of diversion from the Model Fuel Recycling Facility. 4.2.4 States of Partial Knowledge States of partial knowledge are used to detect diversion. If no variable is in a state of no knowledge, then it is either in a state of full knowledge-as represented by a truncated normal distribution reflecting normal operating condition-or it is in a state of partial knowledge. The state of partial knowledge is taken with respect to that of normal knowledge. This is most clearly seen with the flowrates manipulable by the facility operator. Each flowrate has a state of full knowledge, which is represented by a 43 truncated normal distrubtion, and two states of partial knowledge. The states of partial knowledge indicate flowrates either above or below the normal flowrate, and the flowrates run from the appropriate standard deviation above or below the mean to the respective upper and lower limits for that flowrate. This is illustrated in Figure 6: Distributions associated With States of Knowledge, which shows the State of No Knowledge, the State of Partial Knowledge, and the State of Full Knowledge for the Uranium Strip flowrate. Uniform Lower 0 Upper 130 Uniform Lower 109 Upper 130 State of No State of Partial State of Full Knowledge Knowledge Knowledge Normaltruncated Mean 100 SD 9 Lower 0 Upper 130 Figure 6: Distributions associated With States of Knowledge Because the states of partial knowledge are used to indicate the behavior of an adversary, no assumption is made as to what distribution of possible values can be used. While it is expected that a normal distribution will characterize any configuration of the plant as the operator attempts to hold the plant under constant conditions, there is no readily available information as to where in a given operating range a divertor would have the greatest preference for operating. No assumptions are made as to the divertor's prefe rence. 44 4.2.5 Increasing information and Inference on Facility State As information is gathered, even if the information is not complete, it is possible to make inferences on the state of a facility. This is illustrated in a largely qualitative sense in Figure 7: Effect of Increasing Information on Facility State. This figure depicts a histogram of the plutonium mass flowrate for each output stream from the first cycle in the MFRF. To create this histogram, 5000 runs are simulated drawing upon possible facility configurations given the information known about the process input parameters; the information known about the process input parameters changes from column (a) to column (c), steadily increasing. Each output stream has an arbitrarily chosen threshold of 0.5kg/hr drawn and the area below this threshold is shaded grey. Were this threshold to be the accepted threshold for diversion, the probability of diversion given the information at hand could be represented as the fractional area of the histogram above the threshold. In column (a) the nitric acid concentrations of all input streams with the exception of the feed stream are assumed to be in a state of no knowledge. Column (b) displays the results of simulation when the concentrations of nitric acid in the U Strip and Pu Strip streams are in a state of full knowledge. Coulmn (c) displays the results of simulation when all concentrations of nitric acid are in states of full knowledge. 45 Pu Rate in Raffinate 2 0-0.5 (kg/hr) kg/hr Pu Rate in Pu Product 2- (kg/hr) Pu Rate in 3 U Product (kg/hr) 2 Pu Rate in Solvent 4 Recycle 2- (kg/hr) 04 -0.5 kg/hr -05 kg/hr (a) (b) (C) Increasing Information Figure 7: Effect of Increasing Information on Facility State 4.2.6 Structure of Bayesian Network The Bayesian Network is assumed to have a single hypothesis node. This node reflects the state of the facility, and there are three possible values for this hypothesis node: normal operation, diversion, or malfunction. The single hypothesis node is influenced by each of the plausibly manipulable process parameters each of which can be in a state of full or partial knowledge. The structure of this Bayesian network is deliberately kept simple, as it is a proof of concept model that illustrates the use of Bayesian networks in diversion detection. Were such a network to be used in a real facility, the creation of the network would likely require additional levels of influence. 46 Figure 8: Structure of Bayesian Network 4.2.7 Generation of Conditional Probability Tables The structure of the Bayesian network and the use of the states of full and partial knowledge is used to create the conditional probability table at each node. The conditional probability table forms the backbone of the Bayesian network as it is run in Netica [31]. 4.2.7.1 ManipulableProcess ParameterNodes Conditional probability tables for the manipulable process parameter nodes are generated by using a combination of JMP and Microsoft Excel. The stepwise regression equations for the facility behavior are used to simulate 5000 different combinations of process inputs according to a given state of the facility. The normal facility configuration is simulated first: feed parameters and temperature are fixed as constant, and all other variables are assumed to be random following a truncated normal distribution. The truncated normal distribution for these other parameters is assumed to have a standard deviation of 9% of the mean and upper and lower bounds as dictated by the facility 47 operating limits in 2.2 Operating Limits; the variation is in line with the assumptions given in 4.2.2 States of full knowledge. As departures from the nominal configuration are simulated, only one variable is changed at a time. For example, the Fission Product Strip flowrate would take a uniform distribution reflective of a state of partial knowledge, and all other variables would either remain fixed or follow the truncated normal distribution. For each variable that is changed, another 5000 combinations would be simulated according to the specified distributions on input parameters. This process is represented for the Fission Product Strip Flowrate in Table 4: Example Conditional Probability Tables. The table on the left gives the number of runs for each set of configurations, and the table on the right gives the probabilities associated. The total of each column is 5000 because 5000 runs are simulated using a given set of distributions. The probabilities for each cell iscalculated by taking the number of runs corresponding to the condition in that cell divided by the total number of runs in that cell's row. FP Strip Flowrate High Normal High Low Normal 47 1199 1017 Diversion 65 544 38651 Normal Diversion 4888 3257 117j Malfuncti Malfunctil Table 4: Example Conditional Probability Tables 48 Normal Low 2.08% 1.45% 52.98% 12.16% 44.94% 86.39% 59.16% 39.42% 1.42% The state of normal operation is assumed to occur only if neither diversion nor malfunction is occurring. Diversion is assumed to occur if the rate of removal of plutonium exceeded 8kg per n hours, where n reflects a discrete amount of time as discussed in the diversion definition section. Malfunction is assumed to occur if the concentration uranium in any streamfalls outside the bounds of normal plant configuration or if the amount of plutonium flowing into the uranium product stream exceeds 8kg per n hours. Plutonium entering the uranium product stream is not considered as diversion because the uranium product stream is assumed to have the same or a similar level of safeguards as the plutonium product streams. 4.2.7.2 Hypothesis Node In addition to the conditional probability tables at the nodes representing manipulable process parameters, the Bayesian network depends on a conditional probability table for the hypothesis node. This conditional probability is essentially the prior probability of diversion occurring in the facility and is dependent upon subjective expertise. Five prior distributions are assumed, and each is used in an evaluation of a potential diversion detection scenario. The prior probabilities include a null hypothesis wherein diversion, normal operation, and malfunction are equally likely; levels of competency; and degrees to which the ope rator will intend to divert plutonium from the facility. This is illustrated in Table 5: Prior Probability of Diversion. 49 Normal Diversion Malfunction 33.40% 33.30% 33.30% No Assumptions Low diversion proclivity, low competence Low diversion proclivity, high competence High Diversion Proclivity, low competence High Diversion Proclivity, high competence 45.00% 80.00% 10.00% 10.00% 45.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 45.00% 45.00% 80.00% 10.00% Table 5: PNor Probability of Diversion Exploration of the specific factors relating to the prior probability of the likelihood of diversion is beyond the scope of the work reported here, so the various plant operator characterizations are used primarily as illustrative examples of how a Bayesian network can be used to assess the likelihood of diversion. 5 Use of Bayesian Network to Detect Diversion As information is gathered and fed into the Bayesian network, the likelihood of diversion is updated to reflect the most current information available. As the proba bility is updated, thresholds can be set at which certain actions should take place. To demonstrate how this works with the Bayesian nework created for the purpose of detecting diversion and distringuishing between diversion and facility malfunction, four cases are used. These cases represent the normal operating condition of the facility, a facility malfunction, diversion through the raffinate stream, and a diversion through the solvent recycle stream. In all cases, presented in this section, the most basic hypothesis is used: diversion, malfunction, and normal operation are all considered equally likely under the prior probability distribution. As evidence is updated, so, too, is the hypothesis. 50 5.1 Normal Operating Conditions When the facility is in a normal operating condition, the summary of its performance is best described by Table 2: MFRF First Cycle Input and Output Flows. In this condition, the facility is assumed to operating at steady state, and no transients are occurring. In this configuration, it is not expected that any diversion should be occurring, nor is there an expectation that any of the products produced would not meet the specifications given them by the facility designer and operator. In a sense, then, the first test of Bayesian network designed to detect diversion is its baseline behavior under the most mundane of conditions. After all the evidence is gathered from the Bayesian network, the relative likelihood of diversion occurring is given in Table 6: Probability of Diversion in Normal Conditions. All of the Bayesian networks show a decreased probability of diversion from the initial hypothesis. The likelihood of malfunction predicted by the networks, however, increases as the diversion timeframe for which the network is designed also increases. This is largely because smaller changes in any of the flowrates result in changes that could result in a malfunction or diversion scenario of longer time periods. 8 71.50% 28.50% 0.00%/ 12 99.00%y 0.99% 0. 00%y 16 100.00%y 0.00%/ 0.08% 24 48 72 97.50% 78.10% 64.30% 0.00% 0.02% 0.34% 2.52% 21.90% 35.40% Table 6: Probability of Diversion in Nornal conditions 51 5.2 Malfunction Case The second case in which the Bayesian network is tested is one in which the facility malfunctions. The malfunction case used to test the response of the Bayesian network is a sudden, sharp reduction in the plutonium strip stream. This has the effect of moving the plutonium from the plutonium product stream to the uranium product strea m. This condition is most certainly undesirable for a facility operator, but it is not considered diversion because the uranium product stream is still deemed to be under safeguards, as this product stream is a recognized fissile material pathway. The malfunction itself is caused by reducing the plutonium strip flow rate from 14.0L/min to 5.0L/min. This kind of malfunction might accompany an air lift failure, or perhaps even an operator error. The malfunction is simulated in SEPHIS and is graphically represented in Figure 9: MFRF Malfunction Case. The facility malfunction is assumed to start at zero time on the graph and persist until twenty-four hours, at which time the normal plutonium strip flow rate is restored. This graph displays the rate at which plutonium enters the uranium product stream as well as the total amount of plutonium that leaves the first cycle through the uranium product stream. In assessing the ability of the Bayesian network to detect this malfunction and discriminate between the malfunction and diversion, the most sensitive Bayesian network-that is the one designed to detect a diversion of 8kg occurring over 72 hours or less-best identifies the reduction of the plutonium strip stream as a malfunction instead of diversion or normal operation. The results of collecting a single piece of 52 information-that of the plutonium strip flowrate-compared to collecting all input flowrates as evidence are shown in Table 7: Probability of Diversion in Malfunction Case. 60.00 Faci ity malfunctic 50.00 40.00 30.00 - 20.00 - ----------- 10.00 0.00 0 5 15 10 20 30 25 Time (hr) Pu Mass Rate into Pu Product (g/min) .----- Pu Mass Rate into U Product (g/rnin) - Total Pu in U Product (kg) Figure 9: MFRF Malfunction Case All Evidence Pu Strip Flowrate Only Diversion Timneframne (hr) Table 7: Probability of Diversion In Malfunction Case 53 35 5.3 Diversion Through Raffinate The first diversion scenario in which the Bayesian network's ability to detect diversion is assessed is the case of diverting plutonium through the aqueous raffinate stream; this is the same stream in which most of the fission products end up, so the divertor would need to separate the plutonium from the fission products. As defined for the work reported here, however, the adversary is indifferent to the solution containing the plutonium. To cause this scenario, the diverter simply reduces the fresh solvent flow rate while holding all other flowrates constant; Fresh Solvent Aflowrate is reduced from 65.0 L/min to 30.OL/min. The facility is assumed to be in steady state at the beginning of the diversion, allowed to return to steady state at the reduced fresh solvent flow rate, and then the fresh solvent flowrate is returned to its normal value. This scenario is simulated in SEPHIS and is graphically represented in Figure 10: Raffinate Diversion Scenario. The diversion lasts 294 minutes-just shy of five hours and just long enough to allow the first cycle in the plant to re-stabilize after being perturbed by a sudden reduction in the Fresh Solvent A flowrate. During this time a total of 8.02kg is removed from the process. As the process tends towards achieving equilibrium after the diversion, plutonium continues to flow out the raffinate stream at a rate of more than 1g/min for an additional 26 minutes. 54 Figure 10: Raffinate Diversion Scenario As information is acquired, it is sent to the Bayesian network. There are multiple sets of conditional probability tables allowing the Bayesian network to actually work; these tables are included in Appendix B: Conditional Probability Tables. The effect of gathering and feeding evidence to the Bayesian network designed to detect diversion of 8 kilograms of plutonium in eight hours or less is illustrated in Figure 11: Bayesian Updating of Eight Hour Network. Forthis illustration, the null assumption is used for the hypothesis node, giving equal probabilities to normal operation, diversion, and malfunction. In this figure, the network is represented three times. In each representation, the nodes are given as boxes with belief bars. The grey boxes indicate that a certain finding has been made. Network (a) illustrates the finding of Fresh Solvent 55 A being below one standard deviation of its normal flowrate. At this time, the network indicates a 66.9% chance that malfunction is occurring and a 22.4% chance that diversion is occurring. The moment an additional finding is entered-in this case that the Fission Product Scrub flowrate is within its normal range-the likelihood of malfunction is seriously reduced. This is shown in network (b). Network (c) shows all of the aqueous stream flowrates being found to be normal. It is no surprise to note that with this set of evidence, the facility state isassumed to NOT be malfunction. What is interesting, but again unsurprising, is that the indicated likelihood of diversion has actually decreased; however, it is still noticeably greater than the value present in the initial hypothesis, which would warrant some concern and perhaps a more in-depth verification. (a) (c) (b) Additional Evidence Gathered Figure 11: Bayesian Updating of Eight Hour Network 56 The findings for the case of a diversion into the raffinate stream are presented in more detail in Table 8: Probability of Diversion in Raffinate Scenario. As in the case of normal operation, the more sensitive networks over-represent the likelihood of malfunction. What is interesting to note is that the network most capable of detecting this diversion scenario is the network designed for diversion occurring over twelve hours or less. That this is the case might suggest that there is an optimum level of sensitivity that can and should be sought after when developing the conditional probability tables that allow a Bayesian network to be run. Only Fresh Solvent Flowrate All Evidence Diversion Timeframe (hr) Tabie a: Probabiulty at Diversion in Rattinate scenario 5.2 Second Case: Diversion through Solvent Recycle Stream The second diversion scenario used to assess the Bayesian network's ability to detect diversion from the MFRF is much more complex than the first scenario because a diversion through the solvent recycle stream requires the manipulation of multiple input flowrates in order to remove at least 8kg over a eight hours or less. This diversion scenario is caused by allowing the plutonium to migrate to the organic phase from the feed while disallowing it to be stripped from the organic solvent. In this scenario, the only variables manipulated are flow rates; concentrations of nitric acid and 57 the reductant used are held constant. This has the effect of holding the distribution coefficients constant, meaning that the diversion is executed through simply restricting the mass of plutonium allowed to enter the aqueous phase downstream of the stage at which the fission product scrub is introduced. For this diversion scenario, the overall flowrates of the organic streams are increased while the aqueous stream flowrates are decreased. The scenario is allowed to run for thirty hours with the input parameters indicated by Table 9: MFRF Configuration in Solvent Recycle Diversion. Facility State Time (h) Normal Diversion Normal 0-24 >24 <0 100.00 5.00 100.00 Pu Strip FP Scrub 14.00 10.00 5.00 10.00 14.00 10.00 Solvent A Solvent B 65.00 15.00 84.05 19.50 65.00 15.00 U Strip Table 9: MFRF Configuration in Solvent Recycle Diversion A simulation of the solvent recycle diversion is shown in Figure 12: Solvent Recycle Diversion Scenario. During the diversion, plutonium is removed at a rate of approximately 37 g/min once the facility re-acquires balance following the abrupt manipulation of flowrates. Overthe course of this scenario, a total of more than 50kg of plutonium is removed from the solvent extraction process. 58 1.60E+02 Diversi n through Solve t Recycle Stre m in Progress I o 1.40E+02 1.20E+02 1.OOE+02 8.OE+01- 6.00E+01 dip. - 2.OOE+01 0.OOE+00 o 5 10 20 15 25 Time(hr) -.---- Rate of Pu diversion into Solvent Recycle (g/min) = = Total Pu diverted into Solvent Recycle (kg) Figure 12: Solvent Recycle Diversion Scenario As information is acquired and added to the Bayesian networks, the Bayesian networks largely fail to recognize that diversion is occurring through the solvent recycle stream. In fact, if a complete set of flowrate evidence is gathered for the solvent recycle diversion scenario, and the adversary is assumed to be predisposed to diversion with a very high level of competence, most of the Bayesian networks still predict that diversion is not occurring. Instead, the result is that the hypothesis of facility malfunction is asserted with great certainty. This is shown for the Bayesian network designed to detect diversion occurring in seventy-two hours or less in Figure 13: Solvent Recycle Diversion in Bayesian Network. 59 30 0!11 Figure 13: Solvent Recycle Diversion in Bayesian Network More complete results for the networks designed to detect diversion over varying timescales are shown in Table 10: Probability of Diversion in Solvent Recycle Scenario. In this case, the Bayesian network designed to capture diversion occurring on timescales of eight hours or less has a clear, distinct, and large advantage over the other networks in detecting diversion. Fission Product Scrub Excluded All Evidence Diversion Timneframne (hr) Table 10: Probability of Diversion in Solvent Recycle Scenario 60 5.5 Analysis of Bayesian Network Performance in Diversion Detection. The performance of the Bayesian networks developed in the conduct of this work leaves a lot to be desired. With more complicated diversion scenarios being missed and other facility events being inappropriately identified, it is unclear that this tool would provide much value to the user at this moment. As a starting point for future tools, however, lessons can be learned. In detecting diversion scenarios over a longer time period, it is necessarily the case that the process used to detect these diversions will be more sensitive to small and subtle process manipulations. Balancing this sensitivity with the ability to get useful information most definitely requires further work and clarified assumptions. Using the method of generating the conditional probability tables described in 4.2.7 Generation of Conditional Probability Tables results in over-representing certain conditions and underrepresenting others. For example, over long diversion time possibilities, malfunction is over-represented because plutonium mass rate thresholds are tightened, and over short diversion time possibilities diversion is over-represented because there are relatively few malfunction conditions. Part of the reason for this inappropriate level of representation lies in the assumptions used. The default assumption of uniform distributions across the permissible operating range as outlined in 2.2 Operating Limits results in undersampling a sufficient number of process variables as to indicate normal operation is impossible, which is clearly not a correct finding. At the same time, a normal distribution might not be appropriate for all scenarios including diversion scenarios because the 61 criteria a diverter uses to assess the desirability of agiven configuration is unknown and plausibly dependent upon each potential diverter. Reprocessing facilities are designed to handle a variety of feed compositions and as such, for a fixed feed composition, the space of diversion or misuse cases is naturally much larger than the space of normal and proper operation. As such, when formulating a Bayesian network, a measure of subjective expertise is required to ensure the various components are give the appropriate weight. This appropriate weighting could be done through a refinement of prior probabilities, or it could be done through a refinement and improvement on the types of distributions and bounds on distributions used to model states of partial knowledge. 6 Conclusions Bayesian networks can be generated to indicate a likelihood that diversion is occurring in a given fuel reprocessing facility. The application of sophisticated and rigorous Bayesian networks to fuel recycling facilities is new. The networks created in the conduct of this work represent formalizing a set of assumptions and a way of thought that, while far from perfect, offers a starting point for future work in the field. Diversion of fissile material by a malefactor is not something that people of goodwill would like to see. In order to prevent this from happening, full intellectual weight must be brought to bear on this problem of preventing such a rare event from occurring. As the frequency of diversion is sufficiently small as to render good data hard, if not impossible to find, a very promising alternative is to systematically collect, integrate, 62 and use subjective expertise in a way that leads to the ability to make a decision to either take an action to stop diversion or to better spend resources on other measures that have a greater positive impact. The Bayesian network used to detect diversion at the Model Fuel Recycling Facility is both proof that diversion detection can be done with a Bayesian network and that it is not a trivial problem to do it well. This same network relies upon simulation of a facility to obtain more complete information through the use of simulation within a set of assumptions than perhaps direct inquiry of experts could provide. Nevertheless, even this process is not without its difficulties; this process affords many opportunities for future work. 6.1 Future Work The Bayesian networks used in the course of conducting this work are clearly not perfect. The work going into these networks needs to be refined on a number of levels. These are discussed below: 6.1.1 Sampling of Variables and Adversary Preference Adding details to an adversary characterization such as preferences for certain actions over others will allow for better sampling of variables to inform the conditional probability tables. As these tables are calculated for this work by one-at-a-time manipulation of variable distribution, certain combination effects are missed, as is seen in the Solvent Recycle Diversion Scenario. If the adversary can be characterized based on real information, the resulting Bayesian network is sure to be more useful. 63 6.1.2 Open-source Solvent Extraction of Fuel Reprocessing Facility Software SEPHIS-MOD4 is used to generate the data that is then fit to a stepwise regression as a function of twenty-four variables. While the stepwise regression has a very distinct advantage in having a very high speed at which large numbers of facility configurations can be simulated, there is some loss of data fidelity compared to the same type of simulation using an analytic tool such as SEPHIS-MOD4. Additionally, having been released in 1979, SEPHIS-MOD4 lacks many of the features that make it easy to specify distributions on the process variables. Such features present in a more modern piece of software with greater ease of use would surely spur open work in this field. A more modern piece of software, a better characterized adversary, and a distilled summary of expert opinion could also be used to determine whether diversion could be induced through a number of short-lived changes to the solvent extraction process; this could be due to a number of effects such as solute reflux. This is an interesting problem, but potentially very difficult to model. 6.1.3 Interpretation of results of Updated Hypotheses The focus of the work reported here is creating a proof-of-concept Bayesian network to detect diversion. Necessarily neglected iswhat to do when there is evidence of an increased likelihood of diversion. Determination of the cost of verifying to avoiding consequences as compared to the cost of the consequences could make for interesting future work in the field. 64 6.3 Possible Applications As the use of Bayesian networks or similartools grows in this area, it is possible that such use can reduce the cost burden to facility operators of complying with safeguards, international or domestic. Depending on exactly how a safeguards regime is impleme nted, the use of Bayesian networks could potentially reduce or even eliminate the need for a resident inspector so long as the capability of being able to quickly react to a potential diversion is maintained. The reduction of costs by pursuing this application are unclear, but also an area worthy of further investigation. 65 Bibliography Gretchen Hund, "A role for industry in promoting nuclear security and non proliferation," Nuclear News, Novembe r 2009. G.Selvaduray, M. 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Randall Robinson, David Gutowski, and William Yeniscavich, "Control of Red Oil Explosions in Defense Nuclear Facilities," Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board, Washington, D.C., DNFSB/TECH-33, 2003. SAS Institute Inc., JMP 8, 2010, Software available from http://www.jmp.com. Mike Ehinger, Private Communication, March 2, 2011. Monica Regalbuto, Private Communication, March 3-4, 2011. Norsys Software Corporation, Netica 4.16, 2010, Software available from hit p://www.norsys.com/. 67 Appendix A: SEPHIS Calculations Pertaining to the MFRF This appendix contains the output from SEPHIS regarding several calculations. In many but not all cases, the time-dependent data from SEPHIS is suppressed in its output for the sake of brevity in this appendix; inclusion of all time-dependent data would greatly increase the length of this appendix beyond what is warranted. A.1 MFRF in steady-state, normal configuration 1CACATICNS FOR A SOLVENTEXTP.CTICN PFOGESS VIE INTEPJCTING SDI71ES GENEIAIED P1-ILE EXEUITON OF THIS FILE WILL YIELD THE RES=ES OF THEMERF BEIN IN TBE NGNAL OPERATING CONFIGURATICN FR THE FIRST IUEX CYCLE. DUETA = 1.000 MLNJIES PER TDEE ]IENT DERINT = 5001.000 MI97ES WEIWEENPPINTING CF HOFILES IFAST = 0 IRE RING-KUITA INTERATICN WILL E USED OF TCL = 0.0100 %PER MINUIE IS REPCED THIS TIMEPERIOD WILL END WIENTIME= TSTOP= 1000.0 00 MITFE OR A IOLERANCE EIB2ER OF STPGES = 45 NEWIN = 1 NEWINEUT FLCE WILL EE GIVEN NEPDUT= 1 NEWCUIPUT FIKWS WILL BE GIVEN NEWDUT = 1 INVALID VALE IVDLM= 3 MIXER VDLU1ESmEE4ED BY PASE FICW IBLS = 3 SETTLE VOIES GIVEN BY PNSE FIW IP = 0 A NEWINITIAL PIFILE WILL NOT BE EAD 10 IECHED CARDCUTET IENCH = 0 BATTERNOTBER THANNDROAL NSIR= 1 OEGANICSIREAM EXITING AT STPGE 35 FEE[ ]AE 23 TEMPI = 2.500E401 INITIAL & FMLT 'IEFERAILE IRXN = 3 E[JCTION OF ELUURNI4 BY RTRCY[4MINE NI'RATE ION FLCWRAIE URANR[M PU (III) RE[UCIANT STAGE NITRIC JCED FEED & PRCDUT IU (IV) (LAMN) (G/L) (G/L) (G/L) SEEPM DAA ND. (MIL) (ML/L) (MX/L) 0.000E+00 0.000E400 1. 00XE+02 0. OOE+00 0.000E+00 0.00E+00 3.000E-02 AQUEEJS 1 7.000E-02 1.400E+01 7.000E-02 0.000E+00 0.0001+00 0. 000E+00 .AQUS 13 3.000E-01 1. 500E+01 0.000400 0.000E+00 30.0 %IBP 34 0.000E+00 0. 00(X+00 0.000E+00 0.000E+00 1.000E+01 0.000E+00 0.000E+00 0.000E+00 0.0005400 0. 00EX+00 AQUDUS 35 2.000E+00 1.410E+01 0.000E+00 3.000E-02 2. 850E+02 3.000E+00 0.000E+00 AQTDJUS 39 1.250E+00 0. 00E+O 6. 500E401 0.000E+00 0.000E+00 0.000E+00 0.000E+00 30.0 %'BP 45 0.000E+00 5.000E+03 AQUEKUS 12 PUJCT SEEAM REMNED (FIDW PAIE IN MIAL UNTS) 5.000E+03 PIO[UCT SIEAM RREM7ED (FLOWRAIE IN MIAL U1ITS) AQuDJS 34 10CTI2 STAGE I NO. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 MEXER 0[U1E BY PBASE OEGANIC AQJEJS 9.9 91E+01 9.991E+01 9.9 91E+01 9.9 91E+01 9.9 911+01 9.991E+01 9.991E+01 9.991E+01 9.991E+01 9.991E+01 9.9911+01 9.991E+01 1.384E+01 7.931E401 7.931E401 7.931E401 7.931E401 7.931E401 7.931E401 7.931E401 7.931E401 7.931E401 7.931E401 7.931E401 7.931E401 7.931E401 SEITLER V3ILE AQJEDJS | 9.991E+01 9.9911+01 9.991E401| 9.9911+01 9.991E401 9.991E+01 9.991E+01 9.991E+01 9.991E+01 9.991E401 9.991E+01 9.991E+01 1.3841E+01 | | | | | I I | | I | MEXERFIDW RATE BY PBASE ORGNIC AQUEDJS I 7. 931E+01 7. 931E+01 7. 9311+01 7. 931E+01 7. 931E+01 7. 931E+01 7. 931E+01 7. 931E+01 7. 931E+01 7. 931E+01 7.931E+01 7.931E+01 7. 9311401 9. 991E+01 9. 991E+01 9. 991E+01 9. 991E+01 9. 991E+01 9. 9911+01 9. 991E+01 9. 991E+01 9. 991E+01 9. 991E+01 9.991E+01 9.991E+01 1. 384E+01 | 68 I | | | | I I GANORC 7. 931E+01 7. 931E+01 7. 931E+01 7. 931E+01 7. 931E+01 7. 931E401 7. 931E+01 7. 931E401 7. 931E+01 7. 931E+01 7.931E+01 7.931E+01 7. 931E+01 TEMP (C) 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 I I INIERSIAE FIW PATE AQEOUS ORGANIC | | | | 9. 991E401 9. 991E401 9. 991E+01 9. 991E401 9. 991E+01 9. 991E+01 9. 991E401 9. 991E+01 9. 991E+01 9. 991E+01 9.991E+01 0.000E+00 1. 3841E+01 | | | | | | I I j I I | | I I I | I | I I 7. 931E401 7. 931E401 7. 931E+01 7. 931E+01 7. 931E+01 7. 931E+01 7. 931E401 7. 931E+01 7. 931E+01 7.931E+01 7.931E401 7.931E401 7.931E+01 a) LO ooo 00 ) HHHHHHaH H o o oo o N a) N) 00 000 HH HH sseeAse AAA HHeHAH 0 H 30 HH H HHHH HHHH 0 00 . 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H H -im MOp' 0O -j .6 NE Hooo H o ) 0 0' H HHHNN) N)0 HH ooooooo ooo02 HH-, 0 wd ) H 0H NO,m -j m2 m2 m.6 m2 0 pd H W0-j 00Ln0 H 0 0w -i .q M20 0 Cd Cd Cd Cd Nj oH HNWMktWi 0 rNNagkooo NW H H H H H MM M oo ?0 cna.w m Ii i Ui N ln -j -j -J -j - -4 H 00 H ms H C HH C H L H CC HAH4 H C N i c H- H- C4 (N mH L L- HC - - E- IU C? Co C HoC (N(N N 14 A C- H-H (N(N (N(N H- 0000000000 H0 nq ?W ?W ? C-? ?W H assaOOssOO (N I 000000000 o ( e1 N(es N- e oH - H NL C o r r oCoC ) Mo- o D o" ooowH~~ww o r- CH NsN co c (N (N (N (N( Q 0 . L -- H oC m H oC H LA -T Co oC HH woooooo H (N oC o YC. H CO H C'- H lCC W r-o~0H)- H C H H C 0 m H CC Co v H H v Co C- OC H C (N W (N v CL LO C- H H H H C HH m LA v (N 8r88 C oC C H Hm Hr- H- w H4co H mo H H Co Co CoD H H CC rqH-IH H H OC H ~ H oC ~ C r- C i o C o V H (N H H (N r Q v N 0 0 (N 4 oo oL 0000000000 oC (N CoCoC 04 LA C- HC oC -C C -C AL Co( H HHHHHH (N H (N r'C - H H H Co C H LA (N H H N C-Ao 0 C- W H H H (N (N (N V : (N H (LA L L) CC 9)))899 H LA Co H Co Co Co Co Co Co H8 LA CC H M LACoCoL W C- r- wO (N Co C 0 (NLZACoH H H 0 , o LA Co Co Co Co (N C- -W H LA (N (N Co W C oC H 0 r- (N H H (N H CO- Co Co Co Co CO Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co 000 ooo 000000 mmLnooo oo C- - -C 8888888C C- c (N Co Co Co L(N t A o AL N Cnq~ H- H4 H C AL H AL AL N( H H HH C oL H- H H4 H w wwee w (N 0 ( qao Co Co0 H , m H Co H H ai 0 H H H 0 (N0CC U-) H 1 w s H Co LA) en 04 H C Co Co Co Co Co C- LA) LA H oo (N H (N CC qV Co C- IT H H (N en LA Co 00 CMoC -T H1 H4 H4 H H (N Wo C- M C- 0 (N oN (N ~ W'C H C- (N 00 LA LA LA Co W H H HH H H CC MM!RW nC)C)C)C)C)e (N M M(en CC) Co Co M MC COH Co- H H H H- O en - CC)O H H 0 H r-- C 4 N~ N LA kD C H H H H ~2~ H (N en M V LA Co C- 00 H LA LO (N L N CH?(CHeCH? CH? (N(N( H H H H H H H (N (N H - 00 o (N H- 0 en H O ~ (NN N N C qMaH(NRnMLV n (N (N . LA Co CO H 04 0 (N (N mC w LA LA Co U) (N WLA LA LA LA LA (N "T C- H H HH H H- oo H H H H C000 H H A (N 1; (N - C Mn e) 0 Co H LAU LA LO C- V(N LA -T H) CO Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co Co CO Co AC CO O Cn C- MC Co ~ H LA C-C H CoI Co oenC CoLL H LA (N Co H 1-q Co (N CC 'c H.1H-I (N CoCo-i l' CC CV C-W MC ( MN (N LA (N ~ CO COH(NNen-oC H H H rAH ooooMNoNoo (N (N o0 ra Cc,35945 H Co C- Co Co H (C V, LA T (N H H o CM LA Co Co LA LA LO CO Co ~ C-C-C-CoCoo( H CO CO CO CO CO Co CO O CoC H- H 0aaaa C C 0 Co H LA.7C C;00 H f 9))99))V.)-H2 0000 V, sSsassn oo H Co 0000 H4H1 Hq H 0 co H o 00 (N (N (N (N (N (N (N 0 M' n LA LA LA LA) LA LA Co H Co~o~o~o~o V' V H? ~p~ppN 0000C; MYNYOC-WCo N MnH- V LA (N H! (N LA C- 0 Co LA H V 0 Appendix B: Conditional Probability Tables The conditional probability tables presented in this appendix drive the Bayesian network used to detect diversion. For each of the conditional probability tables, a number of simulations is run and the number of each runs falling in a particular category is tallied. Diversion occurs if 8kg or more of plutonium is removed through either the solvent recycle or the raffinate stream in the time period specified. For example, a run marked as diversion in the 8-hour table would be indicative of at least 8kg of plutonium being removed from the process in 8 hours. Of the runs not marked as diversion, runs are marked as indicative of facility malfunction if either 1) uranium concentration is more than 10% from normal in any of the output streams or 2) 8kg of plutonium going into the uranium product stream ove r the time period specified. Runs that are marked neither as malfunction nor diversion are deemed to be indicative of normal plant behavior. In some cases when there is a very low number of counts, subjective assessments were made to ensure that some probability values did not exert an undue influence over the network's behavior. 105 B.1 8-hour Conditional Probability Tables U Strip Flowrate High Normal 4996 2305 0 0 0 13 4 2695 High Normal Malfunction Normal 4996 2103 0 0 0 39 4 2897 High Normal Malfunction Normal Low Normal 40.58% 40.66% 18.76% Diversion 3330% 33.30% 33A0% 0.48% 0.15% 9937% Malfunction High Normal Low Normal 41.14% 41A3% 17.44% Diversion 3330% 3330% 33.40% 1.33% 0.14% 9854% Malfunction High Normal Low Normal 33.98% 34.24% 31.79% Dive rsion 3330%, 3330% 33.40% Malfunction 1032% 0.98% 88.70% Low- 4958 4996 4639 0 0 0 42 4 361 Diversion Normal Low- 4961 Diversion High Low 4987 Diversion Malfunction Normal 03 Normal 4905 4996 0 0 95 4 M Diversion Malfunction High Normal Low Normal 41.98% 42.76% 15.27% Diversion 3330% 3330% 33.40% 2.87% 0.12% 97.01% Low Normal High 1784 M 01 Malfunction 3216 Frs Normal Diversion Malfunction 4983 4996 1871 0 0 2 17 4 Normal Low Normal 42.05% 42.16% 15.79% Diversion 3330% 3330% 33A0% 0.54% 0.13% 9933% Malfunction 31271 106 A Flwrt High Low Normal High Sovn t Normal e r F atr HNO3 HNO3+HAN I Unc ANY HAN ANY 4996 0 73 20 Diversion 0 2795 1204 1309 Malfunction 4 2205 3723 3671 Normal All Unc Normal Diversion HNO3 Unc HNO3 Unc HAN Unc 98.17% 0.00% 1.43% 0.39% 0.00%, 52.66% 22.68% 24.66% 22.96% 138.77% 38.23% Malfunction 10.04%1 107 B.2 12-hour Conditional Probability Tables U Strip Flowrate 4907 4973 2304 0 0 0 93 27 2696 Diversion Malfunction High Normal Normal 4973 1740 0 0 0 39 27 3260 Malfunction Normal High 4973 4639 0 0 1 519 27 360 Malfunction High Normal M 1784 0 0 1 156 27 olen A High Normal Diversion Malfunction Normal Low Normal 4027% 4082% 18.91% Diversion 3330% 33.40% 3330% 3.30% 0.96% 95.74% Malfunction High Normal Low Normal 4250% 42.60% 14.90% Diversion 3330% 33A0% 3330% Malfunction 1.17% 0.81% 98.02% Malfunction 5728% 2.98% 39.74% High Normal Low 41.76% 4227% 1538% Diversion 0.33% 0.33% 0.33% Malfunction 4.59% 0.79% 94.61% High Normal Low 41.54% 42.48% 15.97% Diversion 0.90% 0.90% 98.20% Malfunction 4.45% 0.88% 94.67% Low 4973 Malfunction Frsh Normal 4844 Diversion Slowra- Low- 4481 Diversion Sti High Low 4961 Diversion Normal Low Normal High Normal U Normal . 3215J glwrt Normal Low 4863 4973 1870 0 0 218 137 27 2912 Normal 108 1 ~~~~ Normal Ot acos' - HNO3+HAN HNO3 Unc Unc HAN Unc 4973 0 69 15 0 3626 2463 2056 27 1374 2468 2929 0 HNO3+HAN HN03 HAN 0 Unc Unc Unc w 4 Diversion Malfunction Normal 98.34% 0.00% 1.36% 0.30% Diversion 0.00% 44.52% 3024% 25.24% Malfunction 0.40% 20.21% 3630% 43.09% 109 B.3 16-hour Conditional Probability Tables U Strip Flowrate U Strip Flowrate Normal High Normal if 4408 4777 2299 0 0 0 592 223 2701 Diversion Malfunction High Normal Normal 44 Normal Normal 38.38% 41.60% 20.02% Diversion 333.% 33.40% 3330% Malfunction 16.84% 6.34% 76.82% High Normal Low Normal 45.58% 43.94% 10.48% Diversion 3330% 33A0% 33.30% 1.07% 5.40% 9353% Low 4956 4777 1139 0 0 0 44 223 3861 I High Low Low cu Diversion Malfunction Normal 4777 4579 0 0 102 Diversion 2047 223 319 Malfunction High Normal Normal 4777 1769 0 0 210 574 223 3021 High Normal Diversion Malfunction Low 4426 Diversion Malfunction Normal 2953 Diversion Malfunction Low Normal High Malfunction Normal Normal M Diversion Malfunction Low 4169 4777 1862 0 0 715 831 223 2423 Normal Diversion Malfunction 110 High Normal Low 23.99% 38.81% 37.20% 1.89% 1.89% 23.00% 79.07% 8.61% 1232% High Normal Low 40.34% 4354% 16.12% 0.93% 0.93% 98.13% 15.03% 5.84% 79.13% High Normal Low 3857% 4420% 1723% 0.28% 0.28% 99.44% 23.90% 6.41% 69.69% Ot e r atr HNO3 HNO3+HAN Normal Normal Diversion Malfunction Unc Unc 4777 0 59 11 0 3953 3217 2457 223 1047 1724 2532 0 HNO3+HAN HNO3 HAN Unc Unc Unc Normal Normal I Unc HAN 9852% 0.04% 1.22% 0.23% Diversion 0.02% 41.05% 3341% 25.52% Malfunction 4.04% 18.95% 3120% 45.82% 111 BA 24-hour Conditional Probability Tables U Strip Flowrate High Normal 2920 3848 2218 11 0 0 2069 1152 2782 2 Diversion Malfunction 4836 3848 442 0 0 0 164 1152 Diversion Malfunction High Normal Diversion Malfunction 24.68% % Diversion 7333% 1333% 1333% Malfunction 3447% 19.19% 46.34 High Normal Low Normal 52.99% 42.17% 4.84% Diversion 33.30% 33A0% 33.30% 2.79% 19.61% 77.60% High Normal Low 11.09% 44.73% 44.18% Malfunction 45581 Low- 0 0 1062 Diversion 4046 1152 137 Normal Low 3848 1602 Normal 0 0 1802 Diversion 1843 1152 1596 Malfunction Frs A Flwrt Solen 0.19% ,0.19% Malfunction 3157 Low Normal High Normal 42.82% Normal Diversion Frs 32.49% 3801 High Malfunction Normal 3848 Diversion Normal Low 954 Normal Malfunction Normal Low- Normal High Normal High Low Normal 2549 3848 1787 Normal 1 0 1473 Diversion 2450 1152 1740 Malfunction 112 Solen 99.62% 75.84% 21.59% 2.57% High Normal Low 36.68% 44.71% 18.61% 0.11% 0.11% 99.78% 40.14% 25.09% 34.76% High Normal Low 31.15% 47.02% 21.84% 0.20% 0.14% 99.66% 45.86% 2156% 3257% A Flwrt Other Factors HNO3+HAN HNO3 Unc Unc Normal Normal HAN Unc 3848 0 43 6 0 757 3938 2837 1152 4243 1019 2157 0 HNO3+HAN HNO3 HAN Unc Unc Unc B +1 Diversion Malfunction Normal Normal W Diversion 98.74% 0.00% 1.10% 0.15% 0.00% 10.05% 5228% 37.67% 4950%1 11.89% 25.17% Malfunction 1 13.44% 1 113 B.5 48-hour Conditional Probability Tables U Strip Flowrate Normal High 510 1981 1893 Diversion 1514 171 1 Malfunction 2976 2848 3106 Normal High Normal Low Normal 11.63% 45.19% 43.18% Diversion 89.80% 10.14% 0.06% Malfunction 3333% 3129% 34.78% High Normal Low Normal 64.65% 33.98% 1.37% Diversion 66.06% 3120% 2.74% Malfunction 10.08% 33.03% 5689% High Normal Low Low W .M Normal High Low 3769 1981 80 Diversion 362 171 15 Malfunction 869 2848 4905 Normal M w High Normal Diversion Malfunction Normal 117 1981 1721 Normal 3.06% 51.87% 45.06% 11 171 3194 Diversion 0.33% 5.07% 94.61% 4872 2848 85 62.42% 36.49% 1.09% High Normal Low 35.74% 50.10% 14.16% 0.02% 4.24% 95.73% 51.13% 4059% 8.28% High Normal Low 1832% 49.72% 31.95% 9.66% 5.64% 84.71% 4922% 35.68% 1450% Normal High Normal M FrsSo 1981 560 0 171 3859 3587 2848 581 -en A High Malfunction Low 1413 Diversion Malfunction Low- Normal M Diversion Malfunction glwrt Normal Low Normal Normal 730 1981 1273 Diversion 293 171 2570 Diversion 3977 2848 1157 Malfunction B 21 Malfunction 114 Other Factors HNO3+HAN HNO3 Unc: Unc Normal Normal Diversion Malfunction Unc 1981 0 17 3 171 4480 4505 3273 2848 520 478 1724 0 HNO3+HAN HNO3 HAN Unc Unc Unc Normal Normal HAN 99.00% 0.00% 0.85% 0.15% 1.38% 36.04% 3625% 26.33% Malfunction 1 51.13% 9.34% Diversion 8.58% 1 30.95% 115 B.6 72-hour Conditional Probability Tables U Strip Flowrate U Strip Flowrate Normal High 105 1199 1732 Diversion 2831 544 2 Malfunction 2064 3257 3266 Normal High Normal 3.46% 39.49% 57.05% Diversion 83.83% 16.11% 0.06% Malfunction 24.04% 37.93% 38.03% Low Normal Low High Normal Low Normal 2746 1199 35 Normal 68.99% 30.13% 0.88% Diversion 1040 544 83 Diversion 6239% 32.63% 4.98% Malfunction 1214 3257 4882 Malfunction 12.98% 34.82% 52.20% High Normal Normal High Low a' A High Normal Low- Low Normal 47 1199 1017 Normal 2.08% 52.98% 44.94% Diversion 65 544 3866 5; Diversion 1.45% 12.16% 86.39% 4888 3257 117 59.16% 39.42% 1.42% cu Malfunction Normal High Normal M Malfunction Low 933 1199 193 6 544 4371 4061 3257 436 Diversion High Normal Malfunction High Normal Low Normal 40.13% 5157% 8.30% Diversion 0.122% 11.055% 88.823% 52373% 42.004% 5.623% High Normal Normal 14.45% 4922% 3633% Malfunction Low Low Normal 352 1199 885 Diversion 934 544 3033 Diversion 20.70% 12.06% 67.24% 3714 3257 1082 Malfunction 46.12% 40.44% 13.44% Malfunction 116 Ote Facor HNO3+HAN Normal Diversion Malfunction Diversion Malfunction Unc 1199 0 6 2 544 4559 4658 3407 3257 441 336 1591 0 HNO3+HAN HNO3 HAN Unc Unc Unc Normal Normal Unc Unc: Normal HAN HNO3 9934% 0.00% 0.50% 0.17% 4.13% 34.62% 3537% 25.87% 57.902% 7.840% 5.973% 28.284% 117