Status of the Strait of Georgia
Ian Perry
Fisheries & Oceans Canada,
Pacific Biological Station
Nanaimo, BC
Ian.Perry@dfo-mpo.gc.ca
With contributions from:
Dick Beamish, Diane Masson, Sophie Johannessen, Bruce McCarter
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Large scale drivers of changes in the Strait of Georgia:
• human population growth
(including demographic and land use changes)
• global, regional, and local economic changes
(including lifestyle changes)
• climate change
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Capital
0.45
0.4
Cow ichan Valley
Nanaimo
2
Comox-Strathcona
0.35
0.3
Pow ell River
Sunshine Coast
1.5
Greater Vancouver
0.25
0.2
1
Population
increases
from 1986
to 2006:
Vancouver
54%
Nanaimo
71%
0.15
0.1
0.5
0.05
0
Powell
River
9%
0
19
41
19
45
19
49
19
53
19
57
19
61
19
65
19
69
19
73
19
77
19
81
19
85
19
89
19
93
19
97
20
01
20
05
Other Districts
2.5
Millions
0.5
Vancouver
Millions
Human population – Strait of Georgia Regional Districts
Year
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Georgia Basin is increasingly being urbanised
Forest cover
Urbanisation
Puget Sound Georgia Basin
Ecosystem Action Plan
1990’s
1990’s
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Increasing human population and related economic and
land use changes bring:
• increased marine traffic
• increased habitat disruption/destruction (both along
shorelines and in river basins)
• increased contaminants
• increased invasive species
• increased fishing effort (commercial and recreational)
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
“Hardening” of shorelines and loss of important habitat
TOTAL
Change in extent of
marshes and
estuaries from
“Past” to “Present”
Chemainus
Englishman
Squamish
Burrard Inlet
Cowichan
Nanaimo
Campbell River
Little Qualicum
Courtenay
Baynes Sound
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
% Change
Levings and Thom 1994
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Marine transport through the Strait of Georgia is increasing
90
Shipping tonnage
through Vancouver
is increasing
Million Tonnes Shipped
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
VANCOUVER PORT AUTHORITY
Statistics Overview 2007
1948
20
06
20
03
2007
Year
Number of alien species in Str of Georgia:
seaweeds
5
crustaceans
6
anemones
2
finfish
5
bivalves
11
others
44
20
00
19
97
19
94
19
91
19
88
19
85
19
82
19
79
19
76
19
73
19
70
19
67
19
64
19
61
19
58
19
55
19
52
19
49
19
46
0
TOTAL
BC Environment
Report, 2007
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
73
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Didymosphenia geminata (“Didymo”) on Vancouver Island
1987
Slides courtesy Max
Bothwell, Nanaimo
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Didymosphenia geminata (“Didymo”) on Vancouver Island
Puntledge River 1993
Salmon River
Heber
River
Confluence
of Oyster
Gold and
Heber Rivers
River
lower Gold River
Puntledge River
Burman River
Ralph River
Stamp River
Little Qualicum River
Somass River
Englishman River
Kennedy River
Nanaimo River
Nahmint
1988-1998
1987
River
Cowichan River
Slides courtesy Max
Bothwell, Nanaimo
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
The culprits? Recreational use of rivers
Fishing
Felt-soled waders
Slides
courtesy Max
Bothwell,
Nanaimo
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Global air temperatures among warmest recorded
www.ncdc.noaa.gov
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Recent pattern in the Strait of Georgia has been warming
Surface Temperature
P. Chandler
Strait of Georgia:
• has warmed by 1 °C in the past 100 years
• warming is occurring through all depths
• Fraser River is particularly susceptible to warming
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
P. Chandler, DFO 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Flow patterns of the Fraser River are expected to change
Modelled results
showing the
change in daily
Fraser River
flow expected
from rainfalldominated
conditions (A)
(under expected
climate change)
compared with
current snow
melt-dominated
conditions (B)
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Together, these forces interact to affect the state of
the marine ecosystem in the Strait of Georgia
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Plankton blooms are occurring earlier
Change in timing of
peak copepod bloom
Date of peak phytoplankton and zooplankton blooms have been getting
earlier, and abundance of key species has been decreasing
El-Sabaawi and Dower, U.Vic.
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
t0
Zooplankton
0
50
100
Day of Year
Larval fish
150
Zooplankton or larval fish density
Zooplankton or larval fish density
Mismatches between predator and prey can lead to starvation
t0
Zooplankton
0
50
100
Day of Year
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Larval fish
150
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Historical fishery landings in Strait of Georgia
Strait of Georgia - reported landings 1920-2004
100000
10000
9000
80000
8000
Demersals
70000
7000
60000
6000
50000
5000
40000
4000
30000
3000
20000
2000
10000
1000
00
04
92
96
84
88
76
80
68
72
60
64
52
56
44
48
36
40
0
28
32
0
20
24
PELAGIC Landings (tonnes)
Pelagics
Year
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
DEMERSAL Landings (tonnes)
90000
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Example of bottom fish fishery patterns in Strait of Georgia
Inshore rockfish
Lingcod
Fishing for inshore
rockfish and lingcod in
the Strait of Georgia has
been heavily curtailed
since the mid-1990’s due
to stock abundance
problems and
management measures.
Wallace, 2002
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Pre-fishery Biomass (Thousand tonnes)
50
100
150
Herring in the Strait of Georgia have been doing well
0
Strait of Georgia
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
J. Schweigert, 2008
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Salmon in the Georgia Basin region (1)
Marine survival of
coho in Georgia
Basin is declining
1986
2006
J. Irvine, 2008
Coho have been leaving
the Strait of Georgia
Simpson et al. 2002
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Salmon in the Georgia Basin region (2)
Sockeye
Observed
returns
Forecast
returns
K. Hyatt, 2008
Fraser River sockeye
are declining, but still
within historical ranges
Total returns of pink
salmon to the Fraser
River 1963 to 2007 are
increasing
Total returns (millions)
30
25
y = 0.4384x + 6.8068
R2 = 0.2038
20
15
Est.
10
5
0
1963
Beamish et al.
1969
1975
1981
1987
1993
Return year
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
1999
*2005
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Harbour seal abundance increased then stabilised
50,000
Number of Seals
40,000
Harbour seal
abundance in Strait
of Georgia from
1970 to present
30,000
20,000
10,000
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Estimated and
measured Harbour
seal abundance in
BC from late
1870’s to present
160000
Estimated Population Size
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Courtesy of P. Olesiuk
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Killer whales in the Strait of Georgia
Killer whale population in the
Strait of Georgia has been
declining
100
Num ber of Whales
95
90
85
80
75
PCB’s in Killer whales peaked in 1970
but they persist in body tissues.
Southern population
70
65
60
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
240
Num ber of Whales
220
200
180
160
140
120
Northern population
100
80
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Summary of current status of Strait of Georgia
Given the forces driving changes in the Strait of Georgia, it
has become:
• increasingly dominated by human impacts, although
environmental (climate-related) changes remain important
• climate likely dominates inter-annual variability
• climate and human impacts force decadal and longer variability
• “exclusively” (?) dominated by pelagic species, although
benthic invertebrates appear to be within historic ranges
• perhaps less productive for (at least some species of) Pacific
salmon
• different now than 30-50 years ago
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Comments from Public discussions on goals for the Strait of Georgia
A future where all species can thrive, none at the expense or detriment of others – so
human impacts must be minimized
Educate children about nature and our environment
Orca pods, dolphins, whales, wildlife in general, regulations to protect sea life, no
pollutants from Fraser
A well understood ecosystem, well managed in a sustainable way
Emphasis on sport fishing versus commercial
More data needed on the effect of recreational boating and other small craft
What effect will increases in shipping have?
More fish
Make it healthier
Harvest seals under your IFMP
Bring back coho salmon
Leave the Strait as natural as possible but monitor often
Less waterfront development
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Conclusions
Strait of Georgia has changed, is changing, and will continue to change
• we can project forward and predict what these changes may lead to, but
there will always be “surprises”
• whether these changes are “bad” is relative depending on how they
compare to desired outcomes and conditions for the Strait
• an “absolute bad” is reduction in the ability of the Strait of adjust to, and
recover from, changes – i.e. reduction in the resilience of the Strait to
changes
• must maintain the natural abilities of this ecosystem and its components
to adjust to natural and human-induced changes
• move from fishing-as-business towards sustainable livelihoods
concepts, and from control-of-nature thinking towards a view of humansin-ecosystem management
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008
Status of the Strait of Georgia
% of Total Labour Force in each Region
Employment in Fishing and Fish Processing
3
Employment in
fishing and fish
processing is
more important
in some
Regional
Districts than in
others
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Capital
Comox
Cowichan
Nanaimo
Powell River
Sunshine Coast
Vancouver
Data: BC Stats, 2001
Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon: moving from
words to actions. Campbell River, BC, 16 August 2008