Haig-Brown Symposium on Sustaining Wild Salmon:
Lessons for BC from the Salmon 2100 Project, and a plan
to move a vision forward
August 17, 2008
Campbell River,
BC
Ken Ashley
Fish and Wildlife
Branch, Ministry
of Environment
Outline
• The Salmon 2100 Project
• Energy, Population growth and climate:
the Big Picture view
• Strategies to move forward in BC:
– Freshwater
– Georgia Strait
– Pacific Ocean
• Governance
• Parting shots
Salmon 2100 –
The Question
•
:
What specific policies must be
implemented in order to have a high
probability of sustaining significant runs of
wild salmon through 2100 in CA, OR, WA, ID,
and southern BC?
Project participants
•
Kenneth I. Ashley
Jeffrey J. Dose
•
John H. Michael, Jr.
•
Xanthippe Augerot
Eric G. Doyle
•
Jay W. Nicholas
•
Larry L. Bailey
Peter F. Galbreath
•
Thomas G. Northcote
•
David A. Bella
Gordon F. Hartman
•
Edwin P. Pister
•
Gustavo A. Bisbal
David T. Hoopes
•
Guido R. Rahr
•
Michelle Boshard
E. Eric Knudsen
•
William E. Rees
•
Ernest L. Brannon
Steven A. Kolmes
•
Brent S. Steel
•
James L. Buchal
John H. Lombard
•
Cleveland R. Steward
•
Russell A. Butkus
Kaitlin L. Lovell
•
Benjamin B. Stout
•
Carl J. Cederholm
Donald D. MacDonald
•
Andre J. Talbot
•
Jeff Curtis
James T. Martin
•
Jack E. Williams
Near consensus forecast —
Current recovery efforts overall have a low
probability of successfully restoring or even
sustaining wild salmon runs through 2100 in CA,
OR, WA, ID, and southern BC
Most likely
future
Policy prescriptions that could work
- First Cluster -
Use
technology
Policy prescriptions that could work
- Second Cluster -
Apply triage
Policy prescriptions that could work
- Third Cluster -
Overhaul
bureaucracy
Policy prescriptions that could work
- Fourth Cluster -
Change
individual
behavior
The future of wild Pacific Salmon . . .
Available from
www.afs.org
~$39 US
 Most likely future given current policy drivers
 23 policy prescriptions that could restore wild salmon
Energy, Population growth and climate change: the
core drivers – the Big Picture view
• Since 1800 coal was the main energy source – start of the
fossil fuel age, then oil in the 1900’s
Energy and Society
• In essence, the Industrial Revolution was the substitution
of inanimate energy for animate energy (e.g. steam
engine vs. muscle), and some cheap labour
• Development of the steam engine allowed energy (coal)
to be mined and transported long distances,
thus accelerating the growth of large cities, which were
no longer dependent on distant forests and animals for
biomass and animate energy – transformed society
• The Industrial Revolution transformed society:
Global energy use
Manchester, England
("Cottonopolis"), pictured
in 1840, showing the mass
of factory chimneys (worlds
1st industrial city).
Year
M MT’s of oil equivalents Index (1900 = 100)
1800
250
31
1900
800
100
2000
10,000
1,250
Our Energy
“Slaves”
The economic prosperity of the 20th Century was driven by cheap,
petroleum-based energy
· Everyone had the equivalent of several unpaid and unfed slaves to
do their work
· These slaves are now getting old and will not work much longer
Non-conventional hydrocarbons will only
delay the inevitable
Climate change and greenhouse gases
Today’s
atmospheric CO2
concentration has
not been exceeded
during the past
420,000 years and
likely not during
the past 20 million
years. The rate of
increase over the
past century is
unprecedented, at
least during the
past 20,000 years
Climate models predict
concentrations of 450 ppm
will produce a “warming
light” type of climate change,
but when CO2 concentrations
exceed 550 ppm “dangerous”
levels of warming and
climate induced damage will
occur (Roberts, 2004).
At 1,100 ppm “even the
skeptical climate scientists
concede that all hell will
break loose” (Roberts,
2004).
World
phosphate
rock
consumption
: 1920-1995
Scenarios of
phosphate
consumption
Scenarios of
lifetimes of
phosphate
rock
reserves
Societal Mismanagement of P
“We may be able to substitute nuclear power
for coal, and plastics for wood, and yeast for
meat, and friendliness for isolation - but for
phosphorus there is neither substitute nor
replacement”
Isaac Asimov
PNW: growth projections
100
80
60
Oregon
Washington
Idaho
British Columbia
40
?
20
?
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
PNW: growth projections
100
80
60
Oregon
Washington
Idaho
British Columbia
40
20
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
Salmon-centric view of PNW human
population growth
1850
1900
1950
2000
Forecasting the future —
Looking out to 2100
2100
2100
The planet is already past it’s carrying capacity
(WWF, 2004 Report):
Salmon (and humans) are now both at risk
What can we do in BC?
Societal response to Peak Oil, sources of alternate
energy sources and population growth will ultimately
determine the fate of wild salmon in the Pacific
Northwest
Think globally, act locally – and vote intelligently
Reduce your ecological footprint and fossil fuel use
By 2035 the
global demand
for oil is
expected to
jump from 85
million barrels
per day to 140
millions barrels.
Natural gas
consumption is
predicted to
increase by
120% and coal
consumption is
predicted to
increase by
60%.
Strategies to move forward
Freshwater:
• the Living Rivers/Georgia Basin approach is
correct – restore freshwater habitat degraded
by 100+ years of various human activities
• Climate proofing via increased water storage
should be a top priority, along with habitat
restoration, outright land purchases, and
vigorous habitat protection
• Living Water Smart and the Wild Salmon
Policy are profound policy shifts – great stuff!
Strategies to move forward
Freshwater:
• Follow up on the Provincial Auditors report
on forest land transfers on Southern
Vancouver Island – what’s up with that?
• Initiate a formal scientific review panel on the
gravel removal from the gravel reach of the
Fraser River (Mission to Hope) – is this really
for flood protection?
Strategies to move forward
Freshwater:
• Water Use Plans are great (world leading), but why are
there no upstream and downstream fish passage facilities
on BC Hydro dams?
Strategies to move forward
Freshwater: Bring back the lake enrichment
program – for stock rebuilding and limited harvest
Fertilization
of Great
Central Lake
in BC in the
early 1970’s
demonstrated
the
importance of
nutrients to
rebuilding
coastal
sockeye stocks
Strategies to move forward
Freshwater:
• Strike an expert panel and make a decision on a cold water
release facility at the Kenny Dam – is it doable, and will it
provide cooling + flows in the Nechako and Fraser River?
Strategies to move forward
Georgia Strait:
• Estuaries – restore key estuaries, purchase where possible
• DFO’s Georgia Strait Ecosystem project is a great start, but
under funded (400k/yr)
• Georgia Strait has some of the world’s leading scientific
institutions (PBS, IOS, U.Vic, SFU, UBC, PESC)
Georgia Strait has alarming concentrations of
persistent and dangerous chemicals – from
WWTPs, rivers, aerial deposition, industry, and
non-point source runoff
Southern
Orcas
classified as
toxic waste
when dead
Emerging concerns in wastewater
Endocrine disruptors – Bisphenol A, Triclosan
Personal care products – musks, insect repellants
POPs – PCBs, Toxaphene, PBDEs (fire retardant)
Pharmaceuticals
Nanoparticles – nanosilver, nanotitanium, nanocarbon
Silver nanoparticles from Samsung's SilverCare washing machine will soon
have to be registered with EPA as a pesticide.
•There are about 3 billion $ of sewage treatment
plants to be constructed in the Georgia Basin in
the next 10 years (GVRD, CRD)
•Require a strong salmon/ecosystem presence to
ensure the correct types of plants gets built to
remove toxic chemicals, as this is a one time
opportunity to resolve this problem
Initiate a large scale, collaborative Georgia Basin
Ecosystem research effort with these institutions:
IOS – ships and oceanography
SFU – Coastal Zone expertise
UVIC – climate change, Neptune, toxicogenomics
PBS – fisheries science – since 1908
PESC - toxicogenomics
UBC – Fisheries Centre – state-of-the-art scientific
visualization, modeling and reconstruction of past
ecosystems
How much would this cost ~ 2-3M/yr
Where would the $ come from?
Existing GVRD and upcoming CRD LWMP
monitoring requirements, and existing Environment
Canada EEM monitoring programs for pulp mills
The money is already there, the sampling is being
done, but is uncoordinated, and the reports rarely see
the light of day, and collect dust on shelves
Headquarters: DFO West Vancouver lab site?
Sea lice: Given the potential threat that open net-pen aquaculture
poses to wild salmon through amplification of sea lice, these
operations should be fallowed during spring smolt migrations,
moved to land-based systems, or converted to closed-pen
aquaculture until the sea lice threat to wild salmon can be
unequivocally resolved.
Strategies to move forward
Pacific Ocean:
-High seas surveillance monitoring
-Ecosystem status – plankton, nutrients,
POST – ocean tracking
IOS, PBS, UVIC and UBC have the
ships, equipment and expertise
Governance
-Collaborative approach to salmon management and
restoration is clearly the way forward
-Many excellent examples on Vancouver Island –e.g.,
Nimpkish Resource Management Board, Cowichan
Basin Water Advisory Council (CBWAC), various
Campbell River Societies
Governance
-Regional Districts may be the logical boundaries for
salmon watershed councils, as they have zoning
control and taxation capability – OCPs, LWMPs
-Front Counter BC is being proposed as the window
for shared watershed governance in Shuswap/Mara
lakes
Parting Shots
•Saving BC’s wild salmon will take a lot of
collaborative effort, stewardship and “big science”
•Why not institute a Federal/Provincial scholarship
program to graduate several First Nations fisheries
biologists per year?
Parting Shots
•BC salmon flown by jet to Europe, doesn’t seem
very sustainable – does this still qualify for MSC?
•A province wide elementary and secondary salmon
curriculum should be implemented, as we’re going
to need a lot of replacements
Parting Shots
•Consider mothballing all of the big hatcheries for
one to two year, and purchase 20 M$ of critical
salmonid habitat?
•My guess is there is about a 10 year window to get
things on track before energy and other resource
shortages distract society from salmon restoration
Suggested readings:
2004 Massey Award
“The great advantage we have,
our best chance for avoiding
the fate of past societies, is
that we know about these past
societies. We can see how and
why they went wrong. Homo
sapiens has the information to
know itself for what it is: an
Ice Age hunter only half
evolved towards intelligence;
clever but seldom wise.”
(Massey, 2004)
Thank-you for listening and thinking….