Movie
night
–
“End
of
Line”,
Ken,
Daniel
and
John
N.
Break
Panel
IV,
Mark,
Mike
L.
Randall,
Karl,
ScoB,…
Eggs
Spawners
Alevin
Fry
Adult
Panel
I,
Craig,
Mike
L.,
David
Parr
Amphetamines!
L
Smolt
Panel
III,
u
Craig,
David
(Sonia)
n Panel
II,
Skip,
c John
R.,
Andrew,
h
Mike
P.,
Alex
Break
1
Panel I
Salmon life cycle and
Freshwater productivity
2
Fraser Sockeye life cycle
Typical pattern
Smolts exit Fraser, migrate
north along coast, after 2
yrs at sea (Gulf of Alaska),
most adults return in fall
Fall
2005
Winter
2005
2009 (4 yrs old)
Late
Winter
2006
Spring
2006, fry
migrate to
LAKE
Spring 2007 smolts leave
lakes, migrate to seas
3
What about Harrison
sockeye?
4
Harrison sockeye
Productivity
10
8
Total
Fraser
6
Productivity
(Adult returns
per spawner)
4
2
0
1952
30
1960
1968
1976
1984
1992
2000
2008
Harrison
25
20
15
10
5
0
1952
1960
1968
1976
1984
1992
2000
2008
5
Harrison sockeye
Life history
Life history
Fry rearing
Ocean
after entry
Most
Sockeye
Lake (1 year)
Harrison
Sloughs, estuary (few months)
2 years 1 year after spawning
spawning
Ocean residence
2 years
2 and 3 years
Age at return
4 years
3 and 4 years
Ocean entry of
2009 return
2007
2007 for age 3 fish
2006 for age 4 fish
6
Harrison sockeye
Productivity of 2009 return
Year
Total Fraser
Sockeye
Harrison
2007 Ocean entry 0.5 returns/spawner 1.8 (age 3 fish from 2009 return)
Smolt
Most use
Some, perhaps most use
migration route Johnstone Strait Juan de Fuca Strait
2006 Ocean entry 3.0 returns/spawner 0.04 returns/spawner
(age 4 from
2009 return & age 3 from 2008
return)
400,000 spawners ( 2005;33 times
average!)
7
Methods for estimating
juvenile abundance
1.  Fry traps (Nadina, Gates,
Weaver, Early Stuart)
2.  Acoustic lake surveys (fry;
Shuswap, Quesnel)
3.  Smolt Weir (Chilko)
8
Chilko sockeye smolt program
Quesnel
lake
Chilko
River
9
Chilko sockeye smolt program
10
Chilko smolt trap in 2007
11
2008p
2007
80
60
40
20
Smolt
Size
(mm)
100
(millions)
Smolt
Abundance
Chilko sockeye smolt data
Source:
DFO
stock
assessment
110
100
2008p
90
2007
80
70
60
0
1951 1959 1967 1975 1983 1991 1999 2007
1951 1959 1967 1975 1983 1991 1999 2007
Year
(of
outmigraVon
from
lake)
Year
(of
outmigraVon
from
lake)
2007
1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
Year
(of
outmigraVon
from
lake)
gms)
2003
(fall
prior
to
outmigraVon
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Fry
size
prior
to
outmigraVon;
millions)
Fry
Abundance
(fall
Quesnel lake sockeye fry data Source:
DFO
Lake
program
5
4
3
3.6M
return
2007
2
1
0
1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
12
Year
(of
outmigraVon
from
lake)
2009 Fraser River sockeye
forecasts
Total Forecast 10.5M
Chilko
4.2M
75% of the
return in two
stocks
Other
2.7M
Quesnel
3.6M
•  77 million smolts left Chilko Lake in 2007 (nearly 2 times 50 yr max)!
•  52 million fry were estimated in Quesnel lake in the fall of 2006
(slightly below average for the 2009 cycle)
•  Good signals for freshwater survival from the 2005 spawning
13
2009 Productivity relative to
average
Freshwater (fry or smolt / female)
“Post Fry” (returns/fry or smolt)
Below average:
Below average:
Early Stuart, Gates
Early Stuart, Chilko, Quesnel,
Weaver, Nadina, and Gates
Near average:
Quesnel, Weaver
Above average:
Nadina, Chilko
No Juvenile data for other stocks
Note: DFO concerns about fry data quality for E. Stuart, Gates?
14
2009 Returns
Pre-season
Stock-group Forecast
Chilko
4,175,000
Quesnel
3,575,000
Total
Sockeye
10,488,000
Postseason
estimate
(prel).
270,000
220,000
1,505,000
15
Sherlock’s Theory!
Colonel Mustard did it in the
ocean with a _________?
16
Ocean mortality theory
Some caveats
1.  For Chilko smolts, can’t rule out
mortality during downstream
migration (650 km).
2.  For Quesnel fall fry can’t rule out
addition mortality in lake (9
months) or mortality during
downstream migration.
17
The End
18
Harrison sockeye
Productivity of 2009 return
Year
2005 spawning
Total Fraser
Sockeye
Harrison
0.5 returns/spawner 0.04 returns/spawner
2007 Ocean entry 0.5
(Age 4;
entered ocean in 2006)
400,000 spawners ( 2005;33 times
average!)
1.8
(age 3 fish)
170,000 spawners (2006; 14 X avg.)
Smolt
Most use
Some, perhaps most use
migration route Johnstone Strait Juan de Fuca Strait
19
300
2008
250
Smolt
s
Size
(mm)
Smolt
s\Spawner
Chilko smolt data
2007
200
150
100
50
0
Source:
DFO
stock
assessment
110
100
90
2007
2008
80
70
60
0
200,000
400,000
Spawners
(females)
600,000
0
20
40
60
80
Smolt
abundance
(millions)
100
20
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2007
out of
lake
Fry
weight
(gms)
Fall
fry\Spawner
Quesnel fall fry data
Source:
DFO
Lake
program
5
4
3
2007
2
1
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Spawners
(females)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Fall
Fry
abundance
(millions)
21