Scenarios and Trade-offs
Jackie Alder
Changing Currents
February 26, 2005
Conclusions
 Scenarios are effective tools for thinking
about future policies and helping to
identify knowledge gaps needed for
policy
 Models are effective in quantifying
scenarios and fine tuning the scenarios
 Harmonizing the two can present a
powerful message to policy makers
15
(a)
Gulf of Thailand
12
9
Global orchestration
Techno-garden
Order from strength
6
3
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
70
(b)
North Benguela
60
50
Adaptive mosaics
Global orchestration
Order from strength
40
30
Techno-garden
20
10
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2.0
(c)
Central North Pacific
1.5
Order from strength
Adaptive mosaics
1.0
Global orchestration
Techno-garden
0.5
2000
2010
2020
Year
2030
2040
2050
Gulf of Thailand
6
(a)
5
Order from strength
Techno-garden
Global orchestration
4
3
2
1
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
200
Techno-garden
Order from strength
(b)
150
Global orchestration
100
Adaptive mosaics
North Benguela
50
2000
2010
2020
2030
9
2040
2050
1960 index value
8
7
Techno-garden
6
(c)
5
Global orchestration
4
Central North Pacific
3
Adaptive mosaics
2
1
Order from strength
2000
2010
2020 Year
2030
2040
2050
7
Techno-garden
6
(a)
5
Gulf of Thailand
Global orchestration
4
3
2
Adaptive mosaics
1
Order from strength
2000
2010
2020
Year
2030
2040
2050
7
6
(b)
5
North Benguela
4
3
2
Order from strength
Adaptive mosaics
1
Techno-garden
2000
2010
Global orchestration
2020
Year
2030
2040
2050
7
(c)
6
Central North Pacific
5
4
Global orchestration
3
Techno-garden
Adaptive mosaics
Order from strength
2
1
2000
2010
2020 Year
2030
2040
2050
Figure 18: Changes in Biomass Diversity (for groups with a trophic
≥ 3) Under
level the Four MA Scenarios from 2000 to 2050 for
a) Gulf of Thailand b) North Benguela and c) Central North Pacific
Ecosystem Scenarios
 Based on work done for the Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment
 Linking human well being and ecosystem
services
 Looked quantitatively (models) and
qualitatively (storylines) the future of
ecosystems under 4 states
 Collaborative effort with Villy Christensen
Scenarios
 Plausible, challenging and relevant
stories about how the future might
evolve
NOT
 forecasts, projections or predictions
MA Scenarios
Focus
Millennium Assessment
Scenarios (2004)
Ecology
Adapting Mosaic
Economics
Techno Garden
Policy
Global Orchestration
Mix of Economics &
Policy
Order from Strength
‘Order from Strength’
 Rich protect their borders and minimal
investment in poorer countries
 Rich try to maintain ecosystem services
by local and national actions but global
impacts are experienced
 Overall ecosystems and services
declining, some areas OK but
vulnerable, others are in peril
‘Adapting Mosaics’
 Management disaggregated;
 Increased awareness of the importance
of resilience;
 Local management and learning;
 Sharing of lessons learned.
‘Technogarden’
 Improved efficiencies in food production
and other selected services;
 Potential to efficiently use and sustain
ecosystem services;
 Risk of surprises!
‘Global Orchestration’
 Economic and environmental policies
 Trade barriers and subsidies phased out
 Global initiatives are implemented
 Human well being improved,
environment???
MA Models
 3 EwE models
 Gulf of Thailand
 North Benguella
 Central North Pacific
 Harmonized with scenarios
Models