“Smart action for a safer community”
Crime statistics – the real picture
Crime statistics help to provide a picture of the crime
rate. However, none of the available methods of recording
crime is perfect, and it is important to understand the
limitations of crime statistics when interpreting them.
Crime statistics do enable us to see broad trends in crime.
These broad trends indicate that overall crime in Victoria
has decreased over the past decade.
Measuring crime – police crime statistics and crime
victimisation surveys
There are a number of different sources of statistics on
crime. Two key sources are police crime statistics and
crime victimisation surveys. Neither of these sources alone
can provide comprehensive information about crime and
the full extent of crime is unlikely to be ever captured.1
Police statistics and gaps in reporting and recording
crime
Police crime statistics measure crimes reported to police
and recorded by police. Their accuracy can be affected by
factors like the public’s confidence in reporting crimes to
police and the police’s accuracy in recording particular
crimes.
For example, crimes such as sexual assault are grossly
underreported. Sentencing Advisory Council research
shows that only around 12.6% of all of the sex offences are
recorded by police, due to a range of factors including fear
of retribution, fear of giving evidence, fear of not being
believed and lack of knowledge and access to help.2
Similarly, family violence has historically been underreported and poorly responded to by police. However, in
2004, Victoria Police introduced a new Family Violence
Code of Practice which sought to improve police responses to family violence incidents and encourage community
confidence to report. As a result of the implementation
of the new code, the proportion of family violence related
assaults recorded by police rose.3 This rise was welcome
This factsheet is for information and discussion
purposes only. It does not necessarily represent
the views of organisations involved in the Smart
Justice Project.
- it did not indicate a rise in family violence, but rather
showed that police were better responding to family violence incidents reported to them.
The Victorian Ombudsman also recently conducted an
investigation that identified poor administrative systems
and historical practices in Victoria Police “which have led
to some crime being under reported, such as assaults and
less serious offences.” 4
Taking population into account
To measure the risk crime presents to Victorians, it is
important to take into account population changes when
interpreting police crime statistics. Since 2000, Victoria’s population has risen over 14%.5 Without taking
population into account, it can be misleading to compare
the number of offences ten years ago, to the number of
offences today. Victoria Police crime statistics are often
presented as a rate per 100,000 of population, which
allows population changes to be taken into account in
looking at long term crime trends.
Crime victimisation surveys
Agencies like the Australian Bureau of Statistics conduct crime victimisation surveys where people are asked
whether they have been victims of particular types of
crime. These surveys can provide a more accurate picture
of crime as they avoid some of problems of underreporting associated with police crime statistics. 6
Overall, crime in Victoria is going down
Police crime statistics show that overall, crime is going
down in Victoria and has dropped for nine consecutive
years. Per head of population, it has dropped around 30%
since 2000/01. One of main drivers for this drop has been
significant drops in property crime such as burglary
and theft.7 This is broadly consistent with trends across
Australia. 8
This factsheet has been supported by grants
from the Victoria Law Foundation and the
Reichstein Foundation
Some violent crimes have increased over the past ten years
While overall crime has dropped, Victoria Police statistics indicate
that assaults have risen across the last ten years. Since 2000/01, per
head of population assaults recorded by police have risen 40%.
The increase in assaults recorded by police over this period is partly
attributable to the introduction of the Family Violence Code of Practice. However, it is generally agreed that the increase in assaults being
reported and recorded by police indicates increased levels of violence.9
Crime victimisation surveys since 1998 also suggest assaults across
Australia have increased.10
Since 2000/01, per head of population, Victoria Police statistics show
that reported rape is up 9%, reported sex offences other than rape are
down 29%, murder has dropped 14% and robbery is down 37%.
Knife violence has fallen
Victoria Police statistics indicate that knife violence has fallen over
the past ten years. Per head of population, assaults with knives are
down 12% and robberies with knives are down 61%.11 These figures
undermine the perception that “knife crime” is increasing in Victoria.
We do not have reliable data on whether knife carrying is increasing
or decreasing.12
Politics and public perception
The public often has very little accurate knowledge of crime and the
criminal justice system. People commonly think crime, and particularly violent crime, is constantly increasing, even when this is not the
case.13
Crime statistics play a critical role in allowing the public to access
information about crime rates. Yet, politicians commonly use crime
statistics selectively to serve particular purposes. Parties in opposition tend to try and exaggerate the rate of crime, for example referring
to raw police crime data and ignoring population increases. Parties
in government tend to try and exaggerate decreases in crime, for
example by focusing on overall crime rates. The police also can have
an interest in selectively reporting or emphasising particular crimes –
for example to support the case for increases in police powers.14
Trusted independent advice on crime statistics
Unlike New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia, Victoria does not have an agency which independently compiles, analyses
and publishes crime statistics. In 2009, the Victorian Ombudsman
recommended consideration of the establishment of an independent
unit to promote public confidence in crime statistics.15 The Victorian
Government has not acted on the recommendation.
Smart Justice solutions
Establishing a Victorian crime statistics agency, independent of police
and government, to monitor crime statistics and crime recording
practices, publish regular reports on crime trends, provide accurate
statistical information to the community and independent advice to
government.
www.smartjustice.org.au
This factsheet was produced on
11 November 2010
1 Australian Bureau of Statistics Information Paper: Measuring
Crime Victimisation Australia: The Impact of Different
Collection Methodologies, 2002. Other methods of measuring
crime include looking at hospital admission rates for
particular injuries and reports of crimes to community
agencies such as sexual assault counseling services.
2 Sentencing Advisory Council, Recidivism of Sex Offenders
Research Paper, 2007, 4 and 7.
3 See Victoria Police Crime Statistics 2006/07, 24.
4 Ombudsman Victoria Crime Statistics and police numbers
2009, 7.
5 See Australian Bureau of Statistics Australian Demographic
Statistics Series 3101. On 31 December 2000 Victoria’s
population was estimated at 4,797,400. By 31 December
2009 it was estimated at 5,496,400, a rise of 14.6%.
6 However, as they are household surveys, they do not
capture crimes committed against the homeless or people
in institutions such as prisons or mental health facilities.
Further, there is still likely to be some underreporting of
crimes such as sexual assault.
7 See Victoria Police Crime Statistics 2009/10, 29.
8 See Australian Institute of Criminology, Australian crime:
facts & figures 2008, Australian Bureau of Statistics Crime
and Safety, Australia 4509.0, 2006 and Weatherburn, ‘Half
as many murders and no one knows why’ National Times 12
June 2010.
9 See eg Bondy in ‘Crime Statistics and the trouble with knives’
The Law Report 12 October 2010.
10 See Australian Bureau of Statistics Crime and Safety,
Australia 4509.0, 2006.
11 See Victoria Police Crime Statistics 2000/01 and 2009/10. See
also the Smart Justice Factsheet Reducing knife carrying and
knife violence 25 May 2010 and media release New crime stats
undermine ‘knife crime’ perception 6 September 2010.
12 See eg Bondy in ‘Crime Statistics and the trouble with knives’
The Law Report 12 October 2010 and Bondy, Ogilvie and
Astbury Living on edge: Understanding the social context of
knife carriage among young people 2005, vii.
13Gelb, More Myths and Misconceptions (2008), Sentencing
Advisory Council, 2 and 5.
14 See Ombudsman Victoria Crime Statistics and police numbers
2009, 89 and Tabakoff, ‘Police accused of massaging crime
stats’ Daily Telegraph 13 April 2010.
15 Ombudsman Victoria Crime Statistics and police numbers
2009, 89-90.