working paper
department
of economics
CIGARETTE SMOKING AMONG WOMEN AND MEN
IN THE UNITED STATES, 1900-1979*
Jeffrey E. Harris
Number 264
August 1980
massachusetts
institute of
"
I
technology
50 memorial drive
Cambridge, mass. 02139
CIGARETTE SMOKING AMONG WOMEN AND MEN
IN THE UNITED STATES, 1900-1979*
Jeffrey E. Harris
Number 264
August 19 80
*To appear in:
The Health Consequences of Smoking for
Women, A Report of the Surgeon General
U.S. Department
of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant
Secretary for Health, Washington, D.C., 1980.
.
Author address
&
phone
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
E52-171
Cambridge, MA. 02139
617-253-2677
Digitized by the Internet Archive
in
2011 with funding from
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Libraries
r
http://www.archive.org/details/cigarettesmoking264harr
-2-
TABLE OF CONTENTS
List of Figures
List of Tables
Introduction
The Rise of Cigarette Smoking:
1900-1950
The Emergence of Filtertip Cigarettes: 1951-1963
Increasing Public Health Awareness: 1964-1979
Exposure to Cigarette Smoke Among Successive Birth Cohorts
Cigarette Smoking among Young Women
Summary
References
J.HARRIS
DRAFT
-3-
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure
1,
Annual consumption
cigarettes
of
filtertip
and
cigarettes per person aged 18 years and over, 1900-1979,
Figure
2.
Percentage of adult current cigarette
smokers
in
the greater Milwaukee area, 1924-1979,
Figure
3.
Changes in the
prevalence
of
cigarette
smoking
among successive birth cohorts of men, 1900-1978,
Figure
4,
Changes in the
prevalence
of
cigarette
smoking
among successive birth cohorts of women, 1900-1978,
Figure
5,
Mean
age
of
onset
of
regular
smoking
among
successive birth cohorts of women and men.
Figure
6,
Accumulated years of cigarette smoking per
person
among successive birth cohorts of women and men, 1978,
Figure
7,
Proportion of years smoking
filtertip
cigarettes
among successive birth cohorts of women and men, 1975,
J.HARRIS
;
'
'
DRAFT
-4-
LIST OF TABLES
Table
1,
Estimates of the Prevalence
Among
Smoking
Surveys, 1935
Table
2.
Quitting
Adults,
-
States,
Regular
Cigarette
Selected
National
1979.
Estimated
Among
United
of
of
Attempted
and
Recent
Cigarette
Smokers,
Rates
Adult,
Successful
United
States, 1970 - 1979,
Table
3,
Regular
Estimated Percentage Distribution of Adult
Cigarette Smokers According to F.T.C. "Tar" Content
of Primary Brand, United States,
Table
4,
Frequency, United States, 1965
5.
1970 - 1979,
Estimated Percentage Distribution of Adult Current
Cigarette Smokers According to
Table
Current
Reported
-
Daily
Consumption
1979,
Estimated Percentage of Current, Regular Cigarette
Smokers, Ages 12 - 18, United States, 1968 - 1979,
J,
HARRIS
DRAFT
-5-
Introduction
This chapter traces the evolution of cigarette
generations
successive
among
during
twentieth
the
demonstrates
century.
women
that
American
of
women
and men
evidence
available
The
differed
have
smoking
from men in their
historical onset of widespread cigarette use, in the rate of
diffusion of smoking among each new birth cohort,
intensity
cigarette
of
their
in
and their use of various
smoking,
types of cigarettes.
conclusions
main
Four
from
emerge
analysis.
this
First, although men rapidly took up smoking during the early
decades
of
this
century,
proportion of adult female
the
cigarette smokers did not exceed one-quarter until the onset
of World War II.
among
The peak
intensity
women born after 1920.
Second, as
past rates of quitting and lower past
occurred
smoking
of
a
result of higher
of
rates
initiation
among men, as well as other changes in the type of cigarette
consumed,
the
smoking characteristics of women and men are
now becoming increasingly similar.
cigarette smoking among adult
declining.
This
American
women
and
increasing
youngest
public
generation
awareness
in the nature of the cigarette product.
J.HARRIS
the
is
of
of
women.
the
health
consequences of smoking has resulted in significant
about
men
conclusion applies to all age groups, but
with less certainty to the
Fourth,
Third, the prevalence of
effects
of
these
changes
Yet little is known
product
changes
on
the
DRAFT
-6-
initiation,
maintenance
cessation
and
of
smoking,
particularly among women.
Since the last review of cigarette smoking in the
Report of the Surgeon General
have
been
performed
(26)
,
two new national surveys
under the sponsorship of the National
Center for Health Statistics and the National
Education.
This
1979
chapter
relies
in
part
Institute
of
on the recent,
preliminary results of these surveys.
J.HARRIS
DRAFT
-7-
The Rise of Cigarette Smoking: 1900 - 1950
Although the use of cigarettes in
was
observed
as early as 1854
(44,50), consumption did not
increase dramatically until after 1900.
1,
consumption
capita
per
of
all
As shown in
types
transient decline during the Great
from
[INSERT FIGURE
a
consumption
Depression,
(52),
1
ABOUT HERE,]
nationally
continuous,
representative
series
of
prevalence rates during the period 1900-1950 is not
smoking
Nevertheless, numerous sources
publicly available.
pieced
Despite
cigarettes per capita in 1920 to 3,522
665
cigarettes per capita in 1950
A
Figure
cigarettes
of
increased by more than tenfold from 1900 to 1920.
increased
States
United
the
can
be
to characterize the differential growth of
together
cigarette smoking among women and men.
Figure
and
depicts estimates of the
2
current
female
percentage
smokers
cigarette
In
1923,
first
the
reported
year
percent of males aged 18 years and over
of
male
greater
the
in
Milwaukee area, as compiled by the Milwaukee
of
Journal
(40)
this survey, 51,8
cigarettes.
smoked
Sixty percent of male cigarette smokers also smoked pipes or
cigars.
In total,
of tobacco
(40)
87 percent of adult males used some type
,
Although earlier survey estimates of male smoking rates
are unavailable, it
consumption
J.HARRIS
prior
appears
that
the
rise
of
cigarette
to 1923 reflected both the conversion of
DRAFT
-8-
5000r
4000
8.
S
E
u
CO
§
o
CO
3000
2000
1000
o
1900
'10
'20
~
'30
.
'40
'50
70
'80
year
Annual consumption of cigarettes and filtertip
Figure 1.
cigarettes per person aged 18 years and over, 1900-1979.
Total per
U.S. Department of Agriculture (52).
Source:
1940-79
include
1917-19
and
for
consumption
data
capita
Total per capita consumption for 1979
overseas forces.
Per capita consumption of
is preliminary estimate.
from annual data on the
cigarettes
derived
filtertip
production.
of
total
cigarette
filtertip share
HARRIS
DRAFT
-9-
established male non-cigarette tobacco
smoking
and
and
marketing
Innovations
I,
cigarette
in
cited as influential
been
have
factors in this rapid growth
a
cigarette
to
the recruitment of a new generation of younger
male smokers during World War
production
users
(41,50,69),
cigarettes,
Camel
of lighter Burley smoking tobaccos with previously
blend
dominant Turkish cigarette tobaccos, were introduced, in
and
months attained
within
a
Two similar
national market.
brands. Lucky Strike and Chesterfield, followed in 1916
respectively (41,50,69).
1919,
Industries Board
estimated
During World War
soldiers
that
1-91'3
of
and
I,
the War
the
Allied
consumed 60 to 70 percent more tobacco than they had
Armies
used in civilian life
(30,31),
Cigarettes continued to dominate other forms of tobacco
1920
among male smokers throughout the
1935,
cigar
and
and
1930 's.
2)
,
while the percentages
users had declined substantially.
cigarette consumption frequency among men smokers
from
3,7
1935
(40).
packs
per
1
and
2).
of
Average
increased
week in 1923 to 4.8 packs per week in
Consumption among men accelerated during World
(Figures
By
percent of adult males in the greater Milwaukee
62,5
area smoked cigarettes (Figure
pipe
's
In
1944,
more
than
War
II
25 percent of
cigarettes produced in the U.S. were distributed to overseas
forces (31), typically for free or at low cost (41), to
point
where
J.HARRIS
the
subsequent shortages developed in the domestic
.
DRAFT
10-
market.
By
Milwaukee
67.1
1948,
confirmed
69,1
of
cigarette
^
males
adult
of
area smoked cigarettes (Figure
of the prevalence
year.
percent
2)
This estimate
.
among
use
the
in
urban
men
is
by other local consumer surveys performed in that
For example,
percent
in
adult male smoking
in 1949,
Omaha,
67.4
were
rates
percent in Birmingham, 69,4
percent in Philadelphia, 63.9 percent in Seattle,
63.4
and
percent in San Jose (39).
[INSERT FIGURE
2
ABOUT HERE,]
The growth of cigarette smoking among
much later
in the face of strong social taboos.
noted that "the ultra smart set
began
smoke
to
women occurred
and
women
social
at the turn of the century."
(15,
Gottsegen
leaders
p.
149).
By 1906, American "girl stenographers" were reported smoking
cigarettes clandestinely
(5,
p.
By 1919, some younger
181).
women in New York were reported smoking
"with
a
trace of defiance"
cited in (52)).
In 1926,
a
parties
1919,
By 1922, New York women were smoking openly
(10)
The first advertisement showing
1919
dinner
(New York Times, March 16,
on the streets and in bus tops
Lorillard's
at
publicity
young woman in
a
a
woman
smoking
for Helmar cigarettes
Liggett and Myers'
was
(46,50).
Chesterfield
advertisement did not smoke but pleaded, "Blow some my way."
(6).
In
April,
1927,
a
Philip Morris advertisement for
Marlboro cigarettes noted that "Women, when
all,
quickly
J.HARRIS
develop
discriminating
they
taste."
smoke
and
at
that
DRAFT
-11-
Figure 2. Percentage of adult current cigarette smokers in
the greater Milwaukee area, 1924-1979.
Prior
Source: Milwaukee Journal consumer analyses (40).
to 1941, the wording of the question eliciting cigarette
From 19 41
use and the type of respondent are not recorded.
to 1954, men were asked, "Do you smoke cigarets?" while all
respondents were asked, "Do any women in your family smoke
cigarets?" From 1955 to 1959, all respondents were asked,
"Do any men (women) in your household smoke cigarets with
(without) a filter tip?"
From 1960 to 1965 and in 1967,
both men and women were asked "Have you bought, for your
own use, cigarets with (without) a filter tip in the past
30 days?"
In 1966 and frcm 1968 to 1979, both men and women
were asked, "Have you bought, for your own use, cigarets
with (without) a filter tip in the past 7 days?" Data for
women fron 1976 to 1979 (open circles) represent filtertip
cigarette smokers only. All percentages reflect adults aged
18 years and over.
HARRIS
DRAFT
-12-
Marlboro cigarettes were as "Mild as May."
1928,
In
(2).
Lucky Strike Advertisement urged women to "Reach for
instead
149).
of
1934,
In
By
(28).
a
Sweet."
(33,
pp.
Lucky
a
58-61; 43, pp 58-59;
a
50,
p.
Eleanor Roosevelt smoked cigarettes publicly
handbags
1940,
compacts
cosmetic
and
were
typically designed to hold cigarettes (17).
Although the Milwaukee Journal
(40)
reported that
percent of adult women smoked cigarettes in 1934
16.7
(Figure 2),
estimates of women's smoking prevalence are sporadic.
prior
Wessel estimated
that
cigarettes
1924
in
consumed
women
(68).
percent
5
Moody's
all
of
Service
Investors
estimated that women smoked 12 percent of cigarettes in 1929
The average daily consumption of
(45).
compared
If
to men smokers,
smokers
men
cigarettes
Journal's
per
1934
is not
as
survey
women
report
smokers,
as
documented for this period.
approximately
consumed
day
women
twice
smokers
(cf.
many
as
the Milwaukee
women's daily consump-
that
tion totalled 135 packs per year as coHipared to 244 pa'cks
per year for male smokers), and
smoking prevalence rates in Figure
representative,
and
if
the
if
2
estimates
there were approximately
yields
a
prevalence
16 percent
The Milwaukee
J.HARRIS
in
:
are taken as nationally
decade (53), then Wessel's estimate yields
smoking
-^
male
of
5
percent
more adult males than adult females during the 1920 to
female
-
1924
and
a
6
1930
percent adult
Moody's estimate
prevalence in 1929.
Journal
series
•;
^
in
Figure
2
must
be
DRAFT
-13-
interpreted
changes
of
light
in
type of survey
the
in
respondent and the wording of questions designed
smoking practices
(see caption to Figure 2.)
population
urban
American women.
series
elicit
to
Moreover, this
not be representative of all
may
Nevertheless, the publicly available survey
data sources are consistent
conclusion
with
that
smoking
rates among women did not exceed one-quarter until the onset
of World War II.
applications
Based on 10,000
policies
insurance
for
1930-40, Ley (34) estimated age-standardized smoking
during
rates of 63.9 percent of men and 20.8 percent of women
years and over.
15
In 1935,
aged
Fortune Magazine, in the first
nation-wide survey (14), reported that 52.5 percent of adult
men and 18.1 percent of adult women smoked cigarettes,
(See
Table
65.5
below.) Among those under
1
percent
of
men
and
of
percent
39.7
age,
of
men
and
9.3
Urban-rural differences in
women were smokers.
smoking were significant.
of
of women were smokers.
percent
26.2
Among those over 40 years,
percent
years
40
The proportion of smokers
ranged
from 61.4 percent of men and 31.2 percent of women in cities
with
population
over
one milltion, to 44.1 percent of men
and 8.6 percent of women
under
2,500.
A
survey
in
of
rural
areas
reported
smokers
23
an
additional
population
250 urban women by the Market
Research Corporation in 1937
and
with
26
percent
regular
percent occasional smokers
(49).
J.
HARRIS
.
:
DRAFT
-14-
After 1940, women's smoking rates accelerated,
generations
entered
areas,
"Occupation
particularly younger women
women,
of
force
labor
the
and Environment"
also
(See
In
Gallup Poll reported 48 percent adult male
smokers
percent
1949,
adult
smokers
female
In
(3).
findings were 54 percent male and
consumer surveys of urban areas in 1948
Local
chapter
1944,
the
and
36
the Gallup
female
percent
33
urban
in
the
in this Report).
new
as
(39)
(3).
revealed
37.6 percent adult women cigarette smokers in Milwaukee
also Figure 2),
Birmingham,
percent
34.3
in Philadelphia,
percent
45.7
in
38.3 percent in
Conover
Seattle, and 34.0 percent in San Jose.
percent
35.6
Omaha,
in
(see
(11),
citing
"trade journal" surveys in the three or four years prior
to
reported smoking prevalence rates of 65 to 70 percent
1950,
among men and 40 to 45 percent among women.
Although the differential growth of cigarette use among
various socio-economic groups is not
documented,
well
the
data during this period suggest that male smoking
available
rates declined with increasing income, while the relation of
women's smoking to income was
Journal
in
1945
noted
(40)
$30
proportions
and Porter's
per
Among
month.
were
1947
32
Milwaukee
The
clear.
58 percent male smokers with
75 percent male smokers with rent
monthly rent over $50 and
under
less
women,
the
corresponding
and 37 percent respectively.
survey
of
Columbus,
Ohio
In Mills
(38),
28.3
percent of white females and 64,9 percent white males smoked
J.HARRIS
'
DRAFT
-15-
whereas
cigarettes,
percent
36.4
black
percent black males smoked cigarettes
females and 68,9
(estimates calculated
from the age distribution data provided in Table
Kirchoff and
patients,
Rigdon
visitors,
(32),
and
and Galveston, noted that
percent
white
females,
in
a
survey
6
of
over
of
(38)).
21,000
employees of hospitals in Houston
percent
63.2
white
male,
33.4
66.3 percent black males, and 32.2
percent black females smoked cigarettes.
All of the above findings reinforce the conclusion that
the onset of widespread cigarette
use
among
women
lagged
that of men by 25 to 30 years.
This historical delay in the
growth
among
of
cigarette
smoking
women
has
also been
documented for the United Kingdom (10,48,51).
J.HARRIS
'
•
DRAFT
-16-
The Emergence of Filtertip Cigarettes: 1951-1963
As shown in Figure 1, total per capita
cigarettes
declined
1953-54,
during
coincident with the
appearance
in
reports
suggesting
a
seriously
smoking and
lung
consumption
of
cancer
(Figure 1),
In 1953,
percent
cigarette
of
of
was
the
popular
press
link
between
cigarette
Thereafter,
cigarettes
the
constituted
By 1958,
of
rapidly
increased
filtertip cigarettes
production.
decline
This
(12,35,36,42).
filtertip
consumption
2,9
their share of
production had increased to 45,3 percent, and by 1963 it was
58,0 percent
(52)
.
•
The transient decline during 1953-54 in the number
cigarettes consumed was not clearly matched by
the proportion of cigarette smokers
areas,
proportion
the
(29)
women
of
a
of
decrease in
At least in urban
,
smokers
continued
to
From 1953 to 1958, the prevalence of adult female
increase.
smoking increased from 42,9 to
45.4
percent
Milwaukee
in
(Figure 2), from 38.4 to 42.6 percent in Omaha, from 47.0 to
50.2
in
San Jose
Washington, D.C, and from 39.6 to 44.4 percent in
(39)
converted
At the same time, both women and men rapidly
to
filtertip
cigarettes.
By
1958,
filter cigarette use
prevailed among 61 percent of women smokers and
of men smokers in Milwaukee,
43
percent
of
men
smokers
54
percent
percent of women smokers and
in Omaha,
smokers and 47 percent of men smokers in
J.HARRIS
42
53
percent of women
Washington,
D,C.,
DRAFT
-17-
and
percent
59
of
women
smokers in San Jose (39)
reported
Health
by
(62),
the
79
In
.
National
percent
smokers
of
a
and
nation-wide
Clearinghouse
adult
42 percent of men
female
for
1964
survey
Smoking and
smokers
and
54
percent of adult male smokers used filter cigarettes.
J.HARRIS
DRAFT
-18-
Increasina Public Health Awareness
1964 - 1979_
Per capita consumption reached a peak value of 4,336 in
1963
(Figure
appearance
1).
in
It
January
declined
transiently
1964
the
of
first
after
report of the
Advisory Committee to the Surgeon General (54).
consumption
continued
during
decline
to
smoking
(26,29),
the
subsequent
recent
1979
hazards
Since 1975, per capita consumption has
declined at an average rate of 1.4
most
capita
Per
period of increased publicity concerning the health
of
the
percent
annually.
The
of 3,900 cigarettes per capita
estimate
closely approximates that observed in 1952.
Table
1
summarizes the results of selected,
representative
period 1935 to
(14)
1955
of
surveys
1979.
of
adult
nationally
cigarette use during the
Except for the Fortune survey of
1935
and the supplement to the Current Population Survey in
(18)
the
the
sponsorship
National Center for Health Statistics,
The results
,
these data were collected under
of other recent national
surveys
(3,4,55,57,58,62,63,65),
revealing
the prevalence
of
smoking,
were
adult
of
very
cigarette
use
similar trends in
described
in
1979
the
Surgeon General's Report (26).
[INSERT TABLE
1
ABOUT HERE,]
Among adult males, the prevalence of regular
use
has
decreases
absolute
J.HARRIS
cigarette
declined continuously since 1965, with more marked
in
the
intervals
1965-70
and
1976-78.
(The
standard errors for National Center for Health
DRAFT
19-
TABLE 1 - ESTIMATES OF THE PREVALENCE OF
SMOKING AMONG ADULTS,
UNITED STATES,
SURVEYS, 1935 - 1979.
Females
Year
REGULAR CIGARETTE
SELECTED NATIONAL
Males
1935
18.1
52.5
1955
24.5
52.6
1965
33.3
51.1
1970
31.1
43.5
1974
31.9
42.7
1976
32.0
41.9
1978
29.9
37.0
1979
28,2
36.9
Source: (14,18,56,58-61).
Data for
1978
are
revisions of preliminary
estimates
reported
in
Data for 1979 are preliminary estimates
(26)
based on a sample of over 13,000 interviews conducted during
January - June 1979, provided by Health Interview Survey,
National Center for Health Statistics.
1955 data represent
persons 18 yrs and over.
1976 data
represent persons 20
years and over.
Estimates for the years 1965, 1970, 1974,
1978 and 1979 represent persons 17 years and over.
.
J.HARRIS
DRAFT
20-
Statistics estimates for 1970 to 1976 are less than 0.3 percent.
The absolute standard errors for 1978 and 1979 are 0.6 percent.)
Among adult women, the direction of change in smoking prevalence
The estimates fOr the interval 1976-79, however,
is less clear.
suggest a recent downturn.
The preliminary 1979 estimate of 32.3
percent for the overall prevalence of adult cigarette smoking
among both sexes represents the lowest recorded value in at least
(The overall prevalence of cigarette smoking in the
45 years.
1935 Fortune Magazine survey was 37.3 percent among adults of
both sexes.
.
These patterns of change in smoking prevalence applied to both
white and black adults.
For white men, the prevalence of regu-
lar smoking declined from 51.5 percent in 1965 to 36.3 percent
in 1979.
For black men, the prevalence of regular smoking de-
clined from 60.
8
percent in 1965 to 42.0 percent in 1979.
For
white women, smoking prevalence declined from 34.2 percent in
1965 to 28.2 percent in 1979.
For black women smoking prevalence
declined from 34.4 percent in 1965 to 28.9 percent in 1979.
Racial differences in cigarette use are discussed in greater detail in the chapter in this report entitled "Psychosocial and
Behavioral Aspects of Smoking in Women,"
Although the Milwaukee area data for 1964-79 do not closely
match these national estimates, figure
decline in smoking rates
foir
2
does show a marked
both sexes during 1964-1970,
a
deceleration in the decline of smoking prevalence during 1971-75,
J.
HARRIS
DRAFT
-21-
and a resumption of the decline in prevalence among men in the
last four years.
The cessation of cigarette smoking has been a significant
factor in explaining this overall decline in smoking prevalence
(26)
.
Column
(i)
of Table
2
presents estimates of the percen-
tage of recent smokers who made a "fairly serious attempt to
quit" within one year of the interview date.
(Recent smokers
include all current smokers plus those former smokers reported
to have stopped within one year of interview.)
Column
(ii)
shows what proportion of those attempting to quit regarded
themselves as former smokers.
tion of all recent smokers
Column (iii) shows the propor-
(whether or not they attempted or succeeded
-22-
-1
quitting) who reported themselves as recent former
;<
smokers.
data necessarily reflect respondents' self assessment
These
of both the seriousness of
of
,
quit attempt and
a
degree
their
Nevertheless, they do provide an indication of
success.
the representative smoker's annual probability of attempting
the probability of
to quit,
successful
cessation
given
a
quit attempt, and the overall annual smoking cessation rate.
(The
standard errors in Table
absolute
1.5 percent, and 0.3-0.5
percent
columns
All three indicators of smoking cessation were
highest
(i),(ii), and
(iii),
respectively.)
[INSERT TABLE
Although
men in 1970.
women smokers attempted to
2
ABOUT HERE.]
relatively large proportion of
a
smoking
quit
probability
their
(i)),
success
of
significantly lower than that of men
attempt
but
are approximately
for
1.0 percent,
for
4
rates for both sexes
have
increased
probability
adult
to
With
was
Quit
(ii)).
respect
the
to
and the success rate,
quit
cigarette
women
and
(column
year
(column (i)) declined by 1975,
1978-79.
attempting
of
men
in
that
in
(column
1970
in
smokers
now
are
indistinguishable.
Table
cigarette
3
displays recent changes in the distribution
brands
according
to F.T.C.
proportion of adults smoking cigarettes
delivery
J.HARRIS
less
than
15
milligrams
"tar" contents.
with
F.T.C.
of
The
"tar"
has increased from 9.5
DRAFT
-23-
TABLE 2 - ESTIMATED RATES OF ATTEMPTED AND SUCCESSFUL
UNITED
RECENT CIGARETTE SMOKERS,
QUITTING AMONG ADULT,
1979.
STATES, 1970
(i)
Percent of
All Recent
Smokers Who
Attempted to
Quit in Past
Year
(ii)
Percent of
Smokers
Attempting to
Quit in Past
Year Who
Reported
Successfully
Quitting
(iii)
Percent of
All Recent
Smokers Who
Reported
Successfully
Quitting in
Past Year
Women
1970
1975
1978
1979
40.8
30.2
32.7
32.4
21.3
19.5
18.8
21.6
8.7
5.9
6.2
7.0
44.4
28.3
29.1
31.4
26.4
20.1
21.5
21.3
11.7
5.7
6.3
6.7
Men
1970
1975
1978
1979
21
Source: 1970 and 1975 data from surveys of persons aged
years and over,
conducted by National Clearinghouse for
from the
Smoking and Health (63,65).
1978 and
1979 data
Health Interview Survey of persons aged 17 years and over,
conducted by the U. S. National Center for Health Statistics
upon
1979 data are preliminary estimates based
(61).
interviews during January - June of that year
J.HARRIS
DRAFT
-24-
percont of women and 2.9 percent of
percent
A
smokers
1970
in
38.5
to
women and 28.1 percent of men in the first half
of
of 1979.
men
corresponding
of
cigarettes
increase
with
F.T.C.
proportion
the
in
of
nicotine delivery less
than 1.0 milligram was also observed.
[INSERT TABLE
same
the
At
consumption
consumption
daily
average
the
time,
ABOUT HERE.]
adult smokers has increased.
of
changes
recent
3
the
in
among
distribution
current
of
Table
shows
4
cigarette
daily
These
smokers.
cigarette
must be
data
interpreted in light of possible underreporting biases
and,
particular,
in
a
round off their reported
Nevertheless,
(67)
strong tendency for respondents to
daily
consumption
to
one
pack.
the percentage of women smoking less than one
pack per day has declined, while the proportion smoking more
than one pack per day has increased.
similar
trend
is
observed for men.
Except
for
1979,
a
(The absolute standard
errors of the 1978 and 1979 estimates are approximately
1.0
percent.)
[INSERT TABLE
The data of Table
of
an
apparently
long
cigarette
consumption
Milwaukee
men
per day
an
(40).
average
J.HARRIS
4
4
ABOUT HERE.]
represent the more
run
among
portion
recent
trend toward increasing daily
regular
smokers.
In
1924,
smokers consumed an average of 10 cigarettes
In
1934, male smokers in
Milwaukee
consumed
of 13.4 cigarettes per day, while women smokers
DRAFT
-25-
TABLE 3 - ESTIMATED PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF ADULT CURRENT
REGULAR CIGARETTE SMOKERS ACCORDING TO F.T.C. "TAR" CONTENT
OF PRIMARY BRAND, UNITED STATES 1970 - 1979,
Year
Less Than
5,0 mg
5,
9, 9
to
mg
10,0 to
14,9 mg
15.0 to
19.9 mg
20,0 mg
or More
Women
1970
1975
1978
1979
6.8
15,0
21,1
23.4
67.1
75.1
59.2
55.4
23.4
7.5
5.3
5,6
2,0
1.2
8.8
9.5
0.2
0.6
3.3
2.6
0.9
1.1
6,2
8,5
1.
11.
13.
17.
61,3
68.1
63.5
60.1
28.1
19.2
13.6
11.8
0,7
1. 2
5,7.
6.1
Men
1970
1975
1978
1979
Health
Source:
National Clearinghouse for Smoking and
National Center for Health Statistics (61). 1979
(63,65),
data are preliminary estimates provided by the National
1970 and 1975 data represent
Center
for Health Statistics,
1978 and 1979 data represent
adults aged 21 years and over,
adults aged 17 years and over,
Estimates exclude those with
unknown primary cigarette brand
J.HARRIS
DRAFT
-26-
TABLE 4 - ESTIMATED PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF ADULT CURRENT
CIGARETTE SMOKERS ACCORDING TO REPORTED DAILY CONSUMPTION
FREQUENCY, UNITED STATES, 1965 - 1979,
Percent Smoking
Less Than 15
Cigarettes per
Day
Year
Percent Smoking
25 Cigarettes or
More per Day
Women
1965
1970
1974
1976
1978
1979
44,5
39,1
38.7
36.5
36,0
34.6
13.7
18.0
18.5
19,6
21,0
22.4
29.6
27.8
26.3
24.2
23.4
26.4
24,5
27.7
30.6
31,1
34.2
32.2
Males
1965
1970
1974
1976
1978
1979
,
.
Source: (26,56,58-61).
Data for 1976 represent persons aged
20 years and over.
All other years represent persons aged
17
years and over.
Data for 1979 are preliminary estimates
based on interviews conducted during January - June of that
year,
provided by the Health Interview Survey, National
Center for Health Statistics.
J.HARRIS
DRAFT
-27-
consumed
7
per day
(40).
1,564 per adult
was
cigarette consumption
If
(Figure
and
1
(52)), and
percentage of adult smokers was 37,3 percent
consumption per adult smoker was 11.5
If
consumption
adult
per
the overall
then mean
(14),
cigarettes
3,597
was
if
per
day.
1955 and if the
in
prevalence of regular smoking was 37.6
1935
in
percent
then
(18),
mean consumption per adult in that year was 26.2 cigarettes.
corresponding
The
calculation
based
consumption data and adult prevalence
Table
data
Moreover, numerous epidemiological
(Figure
and
1
studies
other
and
performed during the period 1950-65 have shown that
surveys
for both sexes, especially
smokers
among
larger
was
daily
current
fewer cigarettes per day
(Table
2),
is
known
the
in past decades consumed
rates
smoking
of
changes in F.T.C, "tar" and nicotine
consumption (Table
not
with
than contemporary smokers.
delivery of cigarettes (Table 3),
cigarette
to
and lifetime maximum
The empirical relationships between
cessation
applied
findings
of
age groups
They are consistent
smokers
regular
proportion
younger
consumption
cigarette
that
the
the
These
daily cigarette consumption.
hypothesis
women,
for
(10,18,21,22,24,32,38,62,63),
It
per capita
yields 33.3 cigarettes per day.
1)
heavy
1979
on
whether
4)
increases
and
in
are poorly understood
smokers
of
the
lowest
daily
(27).
"tar"
cigarettes are more or less likely to attempt to quit, or to
succeed
J.HARRIS
in quitting,
than smokers of conventional filtertip
'
DRAFT
-28-
or
nonfiltcr cigarettes.
switching
to
a
iower
The extent to
which
cigarette
"tar"
may
the
serve
as
substitut"^ for quitting may differ among women and men.
observed
current
increase
smokers
in
could
daily
represent:
the
cessation rates among lighter smokers;
daily
cigarette
consumption
cigarette
consumption
of
an
effect
increase
smoking
(25),
population; or
a
a
Th^^
among
of higher
in
the
continuing smokers; or an
increased daily cigarette consumption of new
the
of
act
entrants
into
combination of these effects
The relationship of these possible mechanisms to the
observed increase in the proportion of
filtertip
cigarette
and low "tar" cigarette smokers is not well elucidated.
J.HARRIS
DRAFT
-29-
Exposure to Cigarette Smoke Among Succe ssive Birth Cohorts
Figures
and
3
4
prevalence
depict estimates of the
of
current cigarette smoking from 1900 to 1978 among successive
cohorts
birth
time
corresponds
series
particular
to 1940
Each continuously graphed
of men and women.
individuals
to
during
born
a
For example, among women born from 1931
decade.
(Figure 4), who are now 40
years
49
to
the
old,
prevalence of smoking rose rapidly during the post World War
II
period
reached
and
peak
a
of
45
percent
by 1963.
Thereafter, their overall prevalence of smoking declined
to
39 percent in 1978.
prevalence
These
lifetime
reported
data
were
smoking
constructed
histories
1978.
methodology,
survey
see
and
the
13,000
of
this
accuracy
the
to
of
of age started smoking, age of smoking
duration
of
temporary
significant,
of abstinence is not known, no particular source of
recall bias
significantly
as
Although
the
July
during
applications
related
(9,29,17).)
recollection
cessation,
periods
(For
over
of
respondents to the Health Interview Survey
December,
from
has
been
identified
However,
(17,18),
the
higher mortality rates of continuing smokers,
compared
to
nonsmokers
(1,13,19,20,43,47,48,54),
introduces
smokers
former
or
a
selection bias that
may understate the prevalence of past smoking for the oldest
cohorts.
tables
J.HARRIS
For example, on the basis of
recently
reported
the
insurance
by Cowell and Hirst
(13)
,
life
a
male
DRAFT
-30-
cigarette smoker at age
probability
surviving
surviving
of
percent for
a
age
probabilities
percent
80
percent for nonsmokers, respectively.
for smokers and 93
Therefore,
from 1978 survey responses to be 46 precent in
actually have been as high as 65 percent.
quit
smokers
peak
the
smoking
(1,19,47),
have
effect
Since individuals
higher survival than continuing
a
the actual point in time at which smoking
than
1937.
less likely to be important among men born
is
after 1910, who are now approaching 70 years old.
calculation for
men
reveals
their
that
could
1937,
rates peaked in this cohort may have been later
This
born,
example,
for
smoking
peak
rat'='
may
3
percentage points.
[INSERT FIGURES
3
AND
2
4
A similar
1911-20
between
or
understated by at most
have
been
ABOUT HERE.]
This source of bias is likely to be less important
older
of
prevalence rate of men born before 1900, calculated
smoking
who
percent
25
compared to 49
as
80,
estimated
The
are
60
estimated
an
age
to
nonsmoker.
to
has
32
women.
On
the basis of age-specific mortality data
reported by Hammond in 1966
continuing
smoke
to
for
Appendix Table
(19,
cigarettes
2b),
women
from age 35 would have an
estimated 48 percent chance of surviving to age 80 years, as
compared
to
probabilities
54
percent
of survival
for
nonsmokers.
estimated
to age 60 would be 91 percent
smokers and 93 percent for nonsmokers.
J.HARRIS
The
If
these
for
survival
DRAFT
-31-
1921-30
1941-50
1951-60
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
YEAR
Figure 3. Changes in the prevalence of cigarette smoking
among successive birth cohorts of men, 1900-1978.
Calculated from the results of over 13,000 inSource:
terviews conducted during the last two quarters of 1978,
provided by Division of Health Interview Statistics, U.S.
National Center for Health Statistics.
J.
HARRIS
DRAFT
-32-
S31-40
WOMEN
1951-60
1-50
•eOO
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
YEAR
Figure 4.
Changes in the prevalence of cigarette smoking
among successive birth cohorts of women, 1900-1978.
Source:
Calculated from the results of over 13,000 interviews conducted during the last two quarters of 1978,
provided by Division of Health Interview Statistics, U.S.
National Center for Health Statistics.
J.
HARRIS
DRAFT
-33-
datc
currently
are
nonsmokers, then
applicable
estimated
the
smokers
women
to
prevalence
peak
and
rate
of
smoking among women born before 1910 could be understated by
only one to two percentage points.
Despite
percentages
biases,
smokers
current
of
consistent with past
smoking
possible
these
Figures
in
predicted
the
and
3
4
are
survey and epidemiological data on the
habits
different
of
groups
age
(14,16-18,21-25,32,37,38,56).
Comparison of Figures
conclusions.
and
4
reveals
following
the
most marked differences in smoking
The
(a)
3
prevalence among men and women appeared in those individuals
born before 1910, who are now approaching 70 years old.
(b)
Women born between 1921 and 1940, who are now approaching 40
to
years
59
prevalence
of
age,
experienced
These women have not yet reached the age
rates.
where the absolute excess deaths of smokers over
are
expected
smoking
highest
the
to
become
substantial
(1).
nonsmokers
Among
(c)
successive cohorts of men and women, the age of peak smoking
prevalence has declined.
smoking
is
Among younger
a
prevalence
1921-30 reached
J.HARRIS
Men born between
prevalence
smoking
peak
1946-48, while those
smoking
the
peak
prevalence rates are declining, although the effect
less marked for women.
reached
cohorts,
a
born
of
58
1941
to
of
1950
1911
71
and
1920
percent during
reached
percent in 1968-69.
peak prevalence of 44 percent in
a
peak
Women born
1958-60,
DRAFT
-34-
while
born
those
prevalence
of
percent
41
1951-60, the rate of
slower
than
smoking
publicity
increased
reached
1970-73,
in
increase
previous
in
diffusion of
1941-50
in
cohorts.
practices
peak
(d)
Among men born
smoking
of
smoking
a
prevalence
slowing
This
coincident
was
of the
with
late
the
1960's.
A
similar
effect
approaching
now
are
20-29,
ages
smoking has apparently peaked.
males
not clearly
is
discernible for young women in this cohort.
who
the
concerning the health risks of smoking
and the relatively high rate of cessation among adult
in
was
sexes,
In both
prevalence of
tY\f=
Smoking rates among men
and
women in this age group are now nearly indistinguishable.
Figure
smoking
depicts
5
the
age
mean
regular
among successive birth cohorts, calculated from the
same data as for Figures
smoking
among
3
and
that
continuously
women
men.
of
The
4.
century, to the point where it is
from
starting
of
As
a
of
age
onset
during
declined
of
this
indistinguishable
nearly
result, each successive cohort of
lifelong continuing women smokers will
have
increasing
an
number of years of exposure to cigarette smoke.
[INSERT FIGURE
Figure
smoking
per
6
5
ABOUT HERE.]
depicts the accumulated
capita,
up
to
1978,
years
prevalence
individuals born
J.HARRIS
curve
1911-20
in
Figures
have
thus
cigarette
for each birth cohort.
These magnitudes correspond to the total
cohort
of
3
areas
and
far
4.
under
each
Among women,
experienced
the
DRAFT
-35-
-^1901-10 ^^^-^1921-30^^^-^1941-50^^5^-^
Birth
Cohort
Figure 5. Mean age of onset of regular smoking among
successive birth cohorts of women and men.
Source:
J.
HARRIS
See notes to Figures
3
and
4.
DRAFT
-36-
largest
Figure
exposure
total
unless the smoking prevalence rat«^s of women
4,
1921-40
during
decline
lifetime exposure of
exceed
However, as seen from
per capita.
that
of
rapidly
more
1911-20
the
the future,
tho
is
likely
to
is
not clear,
cohorts
latter
those
in
cohort.
It
however, whether the lifetime exposure of men born
now
generations.
1921-40,
of age, will exceed that of previous
years
69
to
50
born
With each
successive
cohort,
ratio
the
of
female to male exposure approaches one.
[INSERT FIGURE
As
result
a
cigarettes
after
1950
cohort was exposed to
and
a
(Figure
1),
different
nonfilter cigarettes.
diffusion
rapid
the
of
ABOUT HERE.]
6
fjltertip
of
each successive birth
proportion
filtertip
of
Details of the respondent's past
history of cigarette brand use were not obtained in the 1978
Health Interview Survey.
from
a
series of over 2,000 interviews of current and former
smokers
aged
21
years and over, cc iducted by the National
Clearinghouse for Smoking and Health in 1975
depicts
the
cigarettes
proportion
among
of
comparable
years
distinct,
monotonically
(65)
smoking
birth cohorts.
birth cohorts necessarily differ.)
increasing
Among men,
relation
proportion of filtertip cigarette exposure and
The
available
Such data, however, are
.
Figure
7
filtertip
(The youngest
there
between
birth
is
a
the
date.
corresponding relationship among women born before 1930
reflects their lower smoking cessation rates and, therefore,
J.
HARRIS
DRAFT
-37-
-1900
1901-10
1911-20
Birth
1921-X 1931-40 1941-50 1951-60
Cohort
Figure 6. Accumulated years of cigarette smoking per person
among successive birth cohorts of women and men, 1978.
Source:
J.
HARRIS
See notes to Figures
3
and
4.
DRAFT
38-
their continued use of filter cigarettes
in 1925,
(65)
.
A woman born
for example, who began smoking at age 21
and who switched to filtertip cigarettes in 1957
(Figure 5),
(Figure 1),
has now been smoking filtertip cigarettes for over two thirds
of her smoking career and 40 percent of her entire life.
[INSERT FIGURE
7
ABOUT HERE.]
The prevalence of cigarette smoking, age of initiation,
lifetime duration of smoking, and the extent of use of
various types of cigarettes are not the only measures of
cigarette smoke exposure among a particular population.
Trends in depth of inhalation, fraction of cigarette actually
smoked,
and other dimensions of the style of smoking also
affect smoke exposure.
As discussed in the 1979 Surgeon
General's Report (26), these are difficult to determine from
survey data.
In view of the concern over the accuracy of
contemporaneous survey reports of smoking frequency
(67)
past accounts of the time course of cigarette smoking frequency would be difficult to assess accurately.
Nevertheless,
the evidence presented in the previous section is consistent
with the conclusion that the average cigarette consumption
frequency among regular cigarette users has increased among
feach
successive birth cohort.
'
J.
HARRIS
DRAFT
39-
100
P
90
080
Q.
i
^60
12 50
CO
I
30
020
§10
D
-1900 1901-10
1911-20
Birth
1921-30 1931-40 1941-50 1951-54
Cohort
Figure 7. Proportion of years smoking filtertip cigarettes
among successive birth cohorts of women and men, 1975.
Source:
Calculated from the results of over 2,000 smoking
histories of men and women who had ever smoked, collected
by National Clearinghouse for Smoking ahd Health (65)
HARRIS
DRAFT
-40-
Cigarette Smoking Among Young Women
The more marked
among
age,
reflected
smoking
group.
slowing
a
that
smoking
peak
in
prevalence
1951-60, now approaching 20 to 29 years of
born
men
decline
not
was
rate
the
in
observed
in
initiation
of
of
women of the same age
This trend appears to be continuing
next
the
into
birth cohort.
Table
5
teenage
reports the results
cigarette
recent
Education
during
smoking
conducted
survey,
during
late
by
19 years of
were
age
also
of
represents the
telephone
interviews
of
In this recent survey, but
previous surveys reported in Table
in
of
The most
Institute
National
1978 and early 1979,
individuals aged 12 to 18 years.
surveys
1968 to 1979,
the
preliminary results of over 2,600
not
nation-wide
of
5,
women and men
Otherwise,
interviewed.
the
survey sampling techniques and interview questions eliciting
smoking
practices
remained
unchanged from previous years,
(See notes to Table 5.)
,
The findings in Table
5
confirm the conclusion that the
rate of initiation of smoking among even the youngest men is
women.
declining, an effect that is not present among young
These
results
variability,
must
interpreted
be
(The absolute
standard
in
light of sampling
errors
estimates for ages 15-16 and 17-18 are about
in
adult
considered.
J.HARRIS
surveys,
non-response
Nevertheless,
the
biases
findings
in
of
2
1979
the
percent,)
must
Table
also
5
As
be
are
DRAFT
-41-
TABLE 5 - ESTIMATED PERCENTAGE OF CURRENT, REGULAR CIGARETTE
SMOKERS, AGES 12 - 18, UNITED STATES, 1968 - 1979
Year
Ag es 12-14
Ages 17-18
Ages 15-16
Females
1968
1970
1972
1974
1979
0.6
3.0
2.8
4.9
4.4
9.6
14.4
16.3
20,2
11.8
18.6
22.8
25.3
25.9
26.2
2.9
5.7
4.6
4.2
3.2
17.0
19.5
17.8
18.1
13.5
30.2
37.3
30.2
31.0
19.3
Males
1968
1970
1972
1974
L979
'
National
Source:
performed
by
Nation-wide
surveys
1968-1974
Clearinghouse for Smoking and Health,
(64), and
1979,
Current regular
National Institute of Education,
smoker
surveys
in
all
includes all those who smoke
cigarettes at least weekly.
In 1979
approximately 90
percent of
current regular smokers used cigarettes on a
daily basis.
For 1979 only, 29.7 percent
males and 31.9
percent females, aged 19, were reported as regular smokers.
,
J.HARRIS
DRAFT
-42-
consistent with other nation-wide estimates of smoking rates
among
women
young
and
The
men.
of current
prevalence
regular smoking among respondents 17 to 19 years of
survey
this
for males.
was
age
in
28.1 percent for females and 22.8 percent
The comparable rates
for
women
men
and
aged
17-19 from the Health Interview Survey were 29.2 percent and
An analysis of the growth of
respectively.
percent,
27,5
smoking prevalence among this group, performed in
manner
as
of Figures
that
3
of
men
by
1975,
same
and 4, suggested that smoking
rates among this group of women grew
those
the
rapidly
and
exceeded
The future smoking habits of this
generation of young women cannot be accurately predicted.
Smoking among teenage women
detail
in the chapter entitled
is
taken
up
in
greater
"Psychosocial and Behavioral
Aspects of Smoking in Women" in this Report,
[INSERT TABLE
J,
HARRIS
5
ABOUT HERE,]
DRAFT
-43-
Summary
1.
Women have differed from men in their
of
widespread
cigarette
use,
historical
in the rate of
smoking among each new birth cohort, in their
cigarette
smoking,
and
their
use
diffusion of
intensity
various
of
onset
types
of
of
cigarettes.
2.
Men took up cigarette smoking rapidly at
of
the
twentieth
beginning
especially during World War
century,
Cigarettes rapidly replaced
the
other
forms
of
tobacco.
I.
By
1925, approximately 50 percent of adult males were cigarette
smokers.
Smoking among men accelerated rapidly during World
War
By 1949, the prevalence of cigarette use among men
II.
approached 70 percent in some urban areas.
3.
The onset of widespread cigarette use among women lagged
behind that of men by 25 to 30
women
adult
smoking
years.
The
proportion
of
cigarettes did not exceed one-quarter
until the onset of World War II.
4.
Between 1951 and 1963, increasing proportions
and men smokers converted to filtertip cigarettes.
79
percent
of
of
women
By 1964,
adult women smokers and 54 percent of adult
men smokers used filter cigarettes,
5.
After reaching
a
peak value of 4,336 in 1963, annual per
capita consumption of cigarettes declined in 1964,
and
in
the period since 1975.
The most recent estimate of
3,900 cigarettes per capita in 1979 is
to that observed
J,
HARRIS
1968-70,
approximately
equal
in 1952,
DRAFT
-44-
6.
From 1965 to 1978, the proportion of adult men cigarette
smokers declined from 51 to
1965 to 1976, the proportion of adult women
From
smokers remained virtually unchanged at 32
Since
1976,
to
percent.
33
the proportion of women smokers has declined to
below 30 percent.
adult
preliminary
The
adult men's smoking prevalence for 1979 is 36.9
estimate of
percent.
percent.
37
women's
preliminary
the
For 1979,
prevalence
smoking
of
percent.
28.2
is
estimate
The
overall smoking prevalence of 32,3 percent for both sexes in
1979 represents the lowest recorded value
least
at
in
45
years.
7.
The proportion
declined
smoking
1978-79.
women
adult
of
from
1970
In contrast to
men
and
reported
now
quitting
attempting
smokers
to
past
years,
attempting
rates,
increased
in
proportions
of
but
1975,
the
and their
to quit smoking,
indistinguishable.
are
Approximately one in three adult smokers now makes
attempt
to
quit
smoking
Approximately one in five
during
of
those
quit
to
the
who
course
a
of
attempt
serious
a
year.
to
quit
subsequently succeed,
8.
The proportion of adult smokers using
nicotine
brands
has
lower
increased substantially.
percent of adult women smokers and 28 percent of
smokers
reported
J.HARRIS
the
lowest
In
1979,
adult
39
men
primary brands with F.T.C. "tar" delivery
less than 15.0 milligrams.
of
and
"tar"
It is not known whether
smokers
"tar" cigarettes are more or less likely to
DRAFT
-45-
attempt to quit smoking, or to succeed
quitting,
in
than
smokers of conventional filtertip or nonfilter cigarettes.
9.
of cigarettes smoked
The average number
recent declines in the average F.T.C.
to
and
The relationship of this
men current smokers has increased.
finding
women
by
"tar" and
nicotine deliveries of cigarettes is not well understood.
With
10.
characteristics
similar
successive
each
smoking
the
and men have become increasingly
.
Among women,
11.
women
of
generation,
smoking
average
the
age
onset
regular
of
with each successive birth
declined
progressively
of
cohort-- from 35 years of age for those born before 1900, to
16 years of age among those born 1951 to 1960.
age
of
onset
average
The
regular smoking among young women is now
of
virtually identical to that of young men.
Maximum
12.
prevalence
smoking
rates
substantially in recent birth cohorts of men.
to
reached
1940
a
peak
declined
have
Men born 1931
smoking proportion of 61 percent
during 1960-62, while men born 1941 to 1950 reached
smoking
proportion of 58 percent in 1968-69.
to 1960 reached a peak smoking proportion of 40
1976.
Among
recent
cohorts
prevalence rates have declined to
Women born 1931 to 1940 reached
45 percent
a
J.HARRIS
peak
in 1966-68,
a
of
a
Men born 1951
percent
in
peak
smoking
smaller
extent.
women,
much
peak
a
peak smoking proportion of
while women born 1941 to 1950 reached
smoking proportion of 41 percent in 1970-73.
Women
DRAFT
-46-
born 1951 to 1960 reached
percent
in
1976.
a
peak smoking
of
proportion
38
Among the generation born 1951 to 1960,
now
are
the proportions of women and men smoking cigarettes
virtually identical.
13.
The proportions of women and men smokers
have
group
declined.
Among
those born before 1951, this
from
decline in smoking prevalence resulted mainly
By
cessation.
the
contrast,
smoking
both
initiation.
cessation
smoking
observed decline in smoking
prevalence among younger men born 1951 to 1960 has
from
age
each
in
and
a
resulted
lower rate of smoking
onset
This decline in the rate of
of
smoking
among young men has not been observed for young women.
14.
Recent survey data on
ages 17 to 19,
by
that
lence.
smoking
teenage
habits
reveal
women exceed men in smoking preva-
This finding supports the conclusion that the rate of
initiation
of
smoking
among
young women-- is declining.
young
men—
but not that of
The future cigarette use of the
youngest generations of women is uncertain.
15.
With each
successive
birth
cohort,
years of cigarette smoking per woman has
the
accumulated
progressively
approached the accumulated years of cigarette smoking per man.
Each successive birth cohort has also experienced progressively
smaller sex differences in the fraction of lifetime years of
smoking that represents filtertip cigarette use.
16.
J.HARRIS
Am.ong men born during this century,
each successive
^^^^^
-47-
birth cohort has thus far experienced fewer cumulative years
of
cigarette
smoking,
higher
filtertip cigarettes, and lower
This
relationship
between
experienced
smoking
birth
exposure does not hold for women.
have
proportionate
substantially
rates than earlier generations.
exposure
prevalence
to
rates.
date and cigarette smoke
Women born 1921
higher
1940
to
smoking prevalence
Unless they quit smoking in
substantial numbers, these women, currently aged 40 to 59, will
surpass
older
women
in total
smoking per capita, the total
cigarette
smoking
cigarettes smoked.
years of cigarette
years of nonfilter
per capita, and in the total number of
The health consequences of this enhanced
exposure to cigarette smoke among women
are
likely
to
be
more prominent in the coming decades.
J.HARRIS
•
DRAFT
-48-
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APR 03
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