National Visitor Use Monitoring Prework Data Verification NRIS NVUM Prework Database v1.45 October 2007 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS NATIONAL VISITOR USE MONITORING PRE-WORK....................................... 3 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 3 Help/Contacts................................................................................................................................................ 4 Pre-work ........................................................................................................................................................ 5 Pre-work Data Verification ........................................................................................................................ 5 Map Point Verification .............................................................................................................................. 7 Background Information ............................................................................................................................. 8 Purpose ...................................................................................................................................................... 8 Stratification of Sites & Areas ................................................................................................................... 8 What to look for in Round 1 data to improve Round 2 data ...................................................................12 Critical Review of the NVUM Round 1 Results using NRIS HD-NVUM 1.2 .........................................12 Table 1 Description...................................................................................................................................12 Interpreting the Results .............................................................................................................................13 Table 31 Description.................................................................................................................................14 Interpreting the results: .............................................................................................................................15 Review results from each completed survey day ......................................................................................17 Table 31 Description.................................................................................................................................17 Interpreting the Results .............................................................................................................................18 Review Activity participation information ................................................................................................19 Table 13 Description.................................................................................................................................19 Interpreting the Results .............................................................................................................................20 Review Proxy Summary Results ................................................................................................................21 Table 32 Description.................................................................................................................................21 Interpreting the Results .............................................................................................................................23 Information Available from the Pre-work Access database: ...................................................................24 APPENDIX A: NATIONAL VISITOR USE MONITORING DEFINITIONS .......... 28 APPENDIX B: CORRECTING LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE FOR NATIONAL VISITOR USE SAMPLE POINTS ....................................................................... 38 Overview and History: ..............................................................................................................................40 Overview and History: ..............................................................................................................................40 Summary of Tasks ....................................................................................................................................40 ArcMap and Importing Coverages ...........................................................................................................40 Add X-Y Data ...........................................................................................................................................45 Checking & making corrections to the latitude and longitude ..................................................................50 2 National Visitor Use Monitoring Pre-Work Introduction Welcome to the next round of National Visitor Use Monitoring (NVUM). NVUM is an on-going national monitoring program that uses a stratified random sample to develop statistically sound estimates of visitor use, characteristics, satisfaction, and spending information relevant to each national forest. Results from individual forests are combined to provide regional and national estimates and descriptions of visits. Each national forest and grassland participated in the NVUM program between January 2000 and September 2003 (round 1). The second round of sampling will occur during fiscal years 2005-2009. Having two rounds of sampling can enable forests to examine trends in visitor volume and characteristics. To complete this project there are two main phases of work. First, forests supply “pre-work” the year prior to on-site sampling. The pre-work defines the sampling frame and establishes the context for actual data collection. Second, the forests conduct on-site visitor surveys during the assigned survey year. Since both the sampling schedule and the final visit estimates depend directly on the pre-work, it is critical that each forest do the best job possible in this stage. This document provides direction on how to accomplish the pre-work. Appendix A contains definitions used throughout the document, Appendix B provides detailed directions on mapping. Your forest is scheduled to begin on-site visitor surveys October 1, 2008. The pre-work phase must be completed by May 1, 2008 to allow adequate preparation time for development of the assigned sample and scheduling of interviewer staff to accomplish the on-site surveys. To complete the pre-work process the forest staff must review and verify information they supplied during the first round of survey work. The NVUM team will then use this updated information to select a sample of survey days and provide the forest a one year sample calendar that will run from October 1, 2008 to September 30, 2009. For those who are familiar with NVUM from round 1, note that several things have been changed. These changes will need to be incorporated when updating the database. Changes include: Round 1 Forest data has been preloaded into an Access database and must be verified The Access database has additional fields to fill in such as District Code, Congressionally designated area code, INFRA number Round 1 Forest maps have been digitized and location points must be verified A “very high” use level category has been added The Closed (C) category has been renamed to No Use (N) The use levels set by the forest must now be recorded in the database Some Proxy Codes have been deleted, others added Site names now require clear descriptive names 3 View Corridors- the definition of what travelways are allowed has changed. There is now a drop down list of all nationally and regionally designated scenic travelways - if these occur on the forest they can be listed in the VC category. Some round 1 View Corridors may still qualify, while new ones may be added. Help/Contacts If you still have questions about the pre-work process after reviewing the basic training materials, help is available from your regional coordinator and NVUM team. NVUM Assistance Contacts Regional Coordinators: R1: Lis Novak (lnovak@fs.fed.us) 406. 329-3576 R2: Pam DeVore (pdevore@fs.fed.us) 303.275-5043 R3: Dennis Garcia (dggarcia@fs.fed.us) 505.842-3443 R4: Laura Conroy (lconroy@fs.fed.us) 801.625-5152 R5: Frances Enkoji (fenkoji@fs.fed.us) 707.562-8846 R6: Chuck Frayer (cfrayer@fs.fed.us) 503.808-2446 R8: Greg Barnes (gmbarnes@fs.fed.us) 270.924.2089 R9: Leon LaVigne (llavigne@fs.fed.us) 414.297-1313 R10: Neil Hagadorn(nhagadorn@fs.fed.us) 907.586-9336 NVUM National Coordinators: NRIS help desk 503.668.1798 for prework database questions Sue Kocis (skocis@fs.fed.us) 517.355-7740 x 119 – pre-work stratification questions Don English (denglish@fs.fed.us) 202.205-9595 – study design and data 4 Pre-work The first step to prepare for survey work is to verify and correct pre-work information the forest did previously and fill in several new data fields. Pre-work consists of listing all of the developed sites (such as campgrounds, visitor centers, and picnic areas) and access points (to capture Wilderness and General Forest Area visitors). For each site or access point, each day of the year must be classified according to the expected exiting volume of recreation visitors. Categories include no use (formerly called closed), low, medium, high, or very high last exiting use days. Placing these “site-days” into the correct categories should result in a more accurate visitation estimate. The location of the sites and access points used in round 1 of sampling has been digitized. The missing lat/ longs must be filled in and existing one must be verified. The forest staff will also need to populate several new fields in the database including district code, congressionally designated area code, and for developed sites, the INFRA number. NVUM is supplying all forests with their round 1 information including: A spreadsheet (Access database) that contains all the Forest’s pre-work including lists of sites/ areas and high, medium, low, or no use recreation days A GIS layer so the forest can develop a map of the sites and areas (latitude and longitude info). NRIS HD-NVUM 1.2 database tables that provide analysis of round 1 data, assisting the forest to identify areas that could be improved to provide a more accurate sample in round 2. Pre-work Data Verification All Forest data entered in the pre-work database must be verified for accuracy and changed if necessary. 1. First, develop a good understanding of the NVUM stratification process for sites and days (see the following section). Talk with people on the forest who participated in round 1. 2. Obtain and review the updated round 1 data for your forest. The Round 1 estimates were updated in August 2006 and may not be the same as found on your old Forest NVUM report from round 1. To obtain a copy of this database visit the following web site: http://fsweb.nris.fs.fed.us/installation/index.php and choose the HD –NVUM program to download. 3. While reviewing round 1 results note any areas with a large confidence interval width (over 15%) and information such as activity participation that differs from forest staff expectations. Talk with District and Forest staffs and note their concerns. 4. Review the round 1 calendar of assigned sample days for a sense of what sites/ areas were initially surveyed. This information is located in Table 33 of the NRIS HDNVUM 1.2 database. 5 5. Use the NRIS HD-NVUM 1.2 database, Tables 1, 13, 31, 32, and 33 to review round 1 data. This analysis provides more visual information about data distributions that may help identify areas needing improvement in round 2. 6. Go to the pre-work database and use the analysis tools provided to identify areas of data improvement needed. 7. Go through all the sites and areas listed and verify, delete, add, or change the information for sites needing improvement. If possible, find the original high, medium, and low use limits used by the forest. This will assist in understanding how the initial categorization was done. Remember to incorporate the Very High use level where helpful. Fill in the new fields for forest use levels. Make sure to fill in new fields such as INFRA number, Congressionally Designated Areas, and District Codes. For all sites make sure the latitude and longitude are correct For all sites make sure the site name is descriptive Check Proxy codes to ensure they are still valid and updated to meet new definitions. Redo View Corridor travelways to meet the new definition. See Appendix A for full definition. The drop down list of potential travelways to include is in the Access Database. For GFA and View Corridors identified as either high speed or having unsafe interview locations, try to move the exit interview point to roads that are lower speed (less than 35mph) or that have safe interview locations (see Access database Travel Way Safety report). 8. Run the data check reports in the pre-work database as a final test of the information to verify everything has been done correctly. 6 Map Point Verification In round 1 the forest labeled all the sites and areas listed on the spreadsheet on a forest base map. These point locations have now been digitized and must be verified. Accurate identification of all points is important for several reasons. First, this information allows anyone to find the survey point for interviewing. Second, creation of a permanent record that can be housed in the forest GIS database is very useful for multiple resource analysis. In addition, the point location is used for distance calculations for economic analysis. Following are the basic steps to download the database into GIS. Detailed instructions with graphics on how to load the database from NRIS are in Appendix B. 1. Take the Dbase (dbf) file provided from the Access database and turn it into a GIS layer for forest use. The dbf file is a database file (actually in dBase format) that links up with ArcView and ArcMap. 2. Using ArcMap or ArcView import the local forest layers such as roads, township/ range and county lines, recreation sites, forest boundaries, etc. This will set the local projection and coordinate system automatically. 3. Add the x, y point data by importing the dbf file. 4. Plot items 2 and 3 information as a large map (at least 3 x 4 feet). Some users may opt to use the map in the ArcMap or ArcView application. In either case a hard copy map should be plotted. 5. The recreation planner should then take this map and verify the point location of all sites and areas listed as follows: a. For sites sampled in round 1- locate as close to actual interview site as possible b. For sites not sampled in round 1- locate within ¼ mile of actual site. However, make sure the site is at least in the correct developed site or on the correct road or trail. 6. Note any NVUM point locations that are not in their correct location. Identify the true location of these points. Working with GIS, identify the correct latitude and longitude of these points. 7. Make any changes in the Access database. The database has a data entry form that allows updates to the lat/ long information without going through every site record. 7 Background Information In order to verify forest information supplied in round 1, a basic understanding of the NVUM process and definitions is needed. This section provides an overview, however, for detailed information visit the web site for examples of forest reports and a report that provides the statistical methodology and sampling details behind the NVUM process. The web site is http://www.fs.fed.us/recreation/programs/nvum. Purpose The basic sampling unit for the NVUM program is called a ‘site-day’ which represent a unique combination of a recreation site or area on a particular calendar day. The purpose of the pre-work process is to categorize every site-day on the National Forest into five recreation site categories and five use levels. The NVUM team then selects interview sample days on the Forest within each category through a stratified random sample procedure. The survey data collected on these interview days is then expanded to represent the unsampled days within each stratum, to estimate a visitor use number. Making the best possible decisions on classifying each of the site-day combinations on the Forest is critical to obtaining quality recreation use numbers. Stratification of Sites & Areas Stratification improves the quality of the recreation use estimate. By grouping site-days that are most alike together, and separating groups with the greatest differences, the variability of the visitation estimate is reduced, which improves the overall standard error of the estimate. NVUM uses three types of information to define the sampling strata for the sites and the days the sites are open for recreation use. These strata are site type, proxy information type, and day type (expected exiting visitation volume). Not all forests will have all strata. For example, a forest may not have a designated Wilderness, therefore no Wilderness sites or areas will be identified. The three basic information levels are listed below. Information Level 1 – Site Type Stratification: The forest previously categorized every recreation site and access point on the Forest into one of six site/area types. These were: Day Use Developed Sites (DUDS), Overnight Use Developed Sites (OUDS), General Forest Areas (GFA), Wilderness (W), Viewing Corridors (VC), and Off Forest Recreation Activities (OFF). The OFF category will no longer be used. Definitions for the other five site types are listed in Appendix A. Information Level 2 - Proxy Information Type: For each site type (DUDS, OUDS, etc.), both proxy and non-proxy sites need to be identified. The forest identified sites with proxy information in round 1 and also identified the type of proxy information available. Proxy definitions and the types of proxy allowed have changed somewhat since round 1. It is important to revisit the proxy sites and determine the appropriate proxy code using the current definitions. Proxy measures are a known count of something that is directly related to recreation visitation to a Forest Service site or area by an individual, a group, or a vehicle on Forest Service System lands. Some examples include fee envelopes, fee receipts, mandatory permits, permanent traffic counters, registration forms, or ticket sales. Typically, such 8 information is collected for all days for a given site however sometimes this information may only be available for a portion of the year. For sites where proxy information is available only for a portion of the year, the site must be listed twice in the pre-work- once for the proxy period and once for the non-proxy period. Proxy information must meet several criteria before it can be used: 1. The proxy information must represent all users of the site. 2. The count must be known to be without error. 3. Only certain kinds of proxy data are considered acceptable (Refer to Appendix A for proxy definitions). 4. The data is already being collected for another reason and is not an additional burden to either the Forest or the Concessionaire. Note that several forests identified proxy in round 1 only to find during the sample year that the data was not available. Make sure to change these sites from proxy to non-proxy. 5. At least 80% of users comply with the proxy. 6. There are enough site-days and a high enough visitation level within a proxy code (in the same site type) to make it worthwhile to dedicate at least 5 sample days to the proxy. Information Level 3 – Day type & Use Level, Volume of Exiting Visitation: Each recreation site or access point was further divided into a unit of measure called a site day. A site day is defined as one calendar day at one Forest Service recreation site or access point. For example, the Clear Creek Picnic Area is identified as a site and is open to the public from May 1 through August 31; therefore there are 123 open site days and 242 closed/no use site days. Each day the site was open was then categorized as a very high, high, medium, or low use day. Any day the site or access point is administratively closed, inaccessible, or expected to receive no last exiting recreation use is labeled “no use” (formerly called “closed”). In round 2, an additional use level, VERY HIGH, has been added. Note: The Very High category is new for Round 2. It is not required. If used, it must be used with discretion. Many forests felt this additional category would be helpful to distinguish high use sites that have very different types of visitors than other sites. For example, within Day Use Sites are Ski Areas, Visitor Centers, Golf Courses, and Picnic sites. By listing Ski Areas in Very High, these visitors will be sampled separately from the other sites. The site day stratification is done from a Forest perspective, not a district perspective. In round 1 each forest defined the break point between high, medium, and low for their forest. For example in Day Use non-proxy sites the forest may have defined low as 1-30 last exiting recreation vehicles, medium as 31-70, and high as 71 or more. For Wilderness points they may have defined low as 1-10, medium as 1120, and high as 21 or more exiting hikers. The forest may still have records of how they defined these break points. If not, look at the way sites were labeled and estimate the break points. 9 In round 1 some forests made the mistake of taking a district rather than a forest perspective and days that were not really high use got labeled and sampled incorrectly. This caused a higher confidence interval width. Very high, high, medium, low, and no use is categorized based upon last exiting recreation traffic volume, not actual occupancy of a site. For example, Saturday in a campground may be high occupancy because every site is full, but may actually be a low last exiting traffic day in NVUM. Since visitors are counted when they are leaving, the visitor use statistics and site-day stratification must also be based upon last exiting visitors not occupancy levels. What is the correct proportion of very high, high, medium, and low use days? There are no hard and fast rules however a general guideline is no more than 2-5% of days in very high, 10% in high, 40% in medium and 45% in low. The most important dividing line between use stratum is the range of use expected within each. The days within each use stratum should be as alike as possible. Road speed at exit points can influence the number of people who stop for interviews. In round 1 we found visitors are less likely to stop on roads with speeds over 35mph. Try to move the exit interview location to roads or locations along the road with slower speeds. For example, a major forest road with a speed of 45mph could be broken into multiple exit interview points at road intersections with slower road speeds. Updating View Corridor Information The definition for which travelways are allowed in the View Corridor stratum has changed. Travelways listed in round 1 may still qualify but should be checked against the following criteria. Many other travelways on the forest may now qualify under the new definition. To determine which travelways to list, gather all travelways information relevant to the forest including those listed in round 1, any scenic roads on the drop down list of the Access database, and any other non-FS managed travelways on the forest with scenic qualities that are at least in part dependant upon the national forest scenery. Consult with the Forest Engineer and Forest Landscape Architect to be sure no important scenic travelways are overlooked. Next, apply the Scenic Management System or Visual Management System criteria to the list developed above. All forests have previously conducted a scenic inventory for Forest Planning, although in same cases this inventory may be hard to locate or may be outdated. Apply the SMS or VMS criteria only to non-forest service travelways. Landscapes are viewed to varying degrees from different locations and subsequently differ in their importance. To assist scenic inventory and analysis, this importance can be ranked by concern levels. Concern levels are a measure of the degree of public importance placed on landscapes viewed from travelways. They are divided into three levels; high, medium and low. Then depending upon the type of road, a rating of 1, 2 or 3 is given. List only those travelways that meet concern levels 1 or 2 as shown in Table 1 Appendix A under the View Corridor definition. 10 Apply this scenic criteria to the travelways identified. Then edit the NVUM Access database, View Corridor tab with this information. Additional information to add in this database include the begin milepost of the travelway, the segment length in miles, and the latitude and longitude information. If there is an interview spot along this travelway use the latitude and longitude of this point. If there is no interview spot use the latitude and longitude of the begin milepost. Appropriate interview spots include rest areas or viewing areas with a restroom in which a mixture of highway traffic stops. View points without a restroom should not be used because almost 100% of the people who stop would be viewing scenery and all commuter traffic would pass by. This would not give an accurate percent of commercial to noncommercial and recreation use on the road. 11 What to look for in Round 1 data to improve Round 2 data Taking a critical look at the pre-work done in round 1 of sampling will greatly improve the visitor information obtained in round 2. There are two main sources of information to review round 1 data that will help identify areas in need of improvement. First, review the round 1 information for your forest by using the NRIS_HD-NVUM 1.2 database tables, including the table showing round 1 forest sample calendar. Next, review the prework Access database information and associated analysis tools. All corrections are made in the pre-work Access database. Critical Review of the NVUM Round 1 Results using NRIS HD-NVUM 1.2 Previous versions of the forest report that were sent to your forest are obsolete and are replaced with the information contained in the NRIS HD-NVUM 1.2 database at the following web site: http://www.nris.fs.fed.us/installation/index.php. The new database is user friendly and provides summary tables for all the information collected in round 1. The tables most relevant for this review are Tables 1, 13, 31, 32, and 33. Explore this database, print out relevant tables, and discuss the results with other forest planners and recreation folks. Note any criticism of information in the tables that might need to be investigated in round 2. NVUM will not be able to provide site specific information. However, the accuracy of the overall forest information can be improved, especially descriptive information about visitor characteristics, satisfaction and economic spending. The information in these tables can help the forest determine whether or not the distribution of high, medium, and low days for each site type can be improved. Examples of how to examine and then use the information to identify needed changes follows. The detection of systematic errors is the primary goal of this review, not trying to correct a particular site that was sampled in round 1. Table 1 Description The results of the recreation site/area stratification and sample days accomplished by the national forest are displayed in Table 1. The population of available site days for sampling was constructed from information provided by forest personnel in the pre-work completed in round 1. Variables in Table 1 include site type, proxy code, use level, the number of days in the strata population, the number of days sampled, and the sampling rate. Site types (column 1) are Day Use Developed Sites, Overnight Use Developed Sites, General Forest Areas, and Wilderness. Forest personnel categorized every site or area on the forest into one of these four categories based upon the strict definitions found in Appendix A. If a site or area already collected use information (such as fee envelopes, ski lift tickets, daily use records, etc.) the site was labeled as a proxy site. If a site or area had a proxy count the code for that proxy count is listed in column 2 (see Appendix A for code definitions). Column 2 will be blank for those sites or areas without proxy information. Every site and area on the forest was categorized as high, medium, low, or no last exiting recreation use. Column 3 shows the use level for each of the site 12 types. The concept of “last exiting recreation use” is very important to understand when interpreting results. It does not mean the total recreation use on a given day. For example, Saturdays in campgrounds were typically labeled as medium or low “last exiting recreation use” even though the campground might be full. This is because people were not exiting the campground for the last time on their visit on Saturdays. The combination of site type and use level/proxy code created sampling stratum. Sample days were drawn from each of these strata. Column 4 of Table 1 displays the total number of days that were available for sampling, column 5 displays the number of days sampled per stratum, and column 6 shows the sampling rate (column 5 divided by column 4). Table 1 Site days and percentage of days sampled by stratum Site type Proxy Code # Days in population Use Level # Days sampled Sampling Rate (%) DUDS HIGH 106 11 10.4 DUDS MEDIUM 281 11 3.9 DUDS LOW 744 9 1.2 GFA HIGH 674 22 3.3 GFA MEDIUM 1722 26 1.5 GFA LOW 17581 26 .2 OUDS HIGH 37 9 24.3 OUDS MEDIUM 19 9 47.4 OUDS LOW 344 9 2.6 OUDS FE4 747 6 0.8 OUDS RE2 651 5 0.8 WILDERNESS HIGH 20 9 45.0 WILDERNESS MEDIUM 123 9 7.3 WILDERNESS LOW 738 9 1.2 23,787 170 .007 Totals Interpreting the Results Reviewing the sample frame created by forest personnel helps managers understand how many days were sampled at each of the different types of recreation sites or areas. This provides a greater understanding of how the resulting visitation estimates were derived. Reviewing the number of days in each stratum provides a picture of where forest personnel felt recreation use occurs and at what intensity. For example, the Sherwood National Forest shows 17,581 low last exiting recreation visits for the General Forest Area strata (column 4, row 6). There are 674 days shown with high last exiting recreation use in the General Forest Area strata (column 4, row 4). In General Forest Areas on the Sherwood National Forest 13 there are a lot more site days with very few last exiting recreation vehicles than high use days. Comparing the use level ratings to site capacities (people at one time, or PAOT) may help program managers better understand the current distribution of the recreation opportunity spectrum (ROS) across the forest as a whole. Usually ROS is looked at in terms of acres provided. This information gives a feel for site days utilized between the developed and undeveloped ends of the ROS spectrum. Table 31 Description Table 31 provides detailed information on how the recreation visit estimate was calculated for the selected national forest. The information is displayed by stratum which is a combination of the site type (column 1) and use level/proxy code (column 2). Column 3 “average number of visits per day” is obtained from the sample survey as the average visits for the stratum. Column 4 is obtained by multiplying column 3 by the total number of site days (see Table 1) in that stratum. Column 5 is the associated error term of the site visit estimate at the 80% confidence level. Columns 6 through 9 provide details about the interviews obtained within each stratum. Individuals who agreed to be interviewed (column 6) are those who completed more than Question 1 on the interview form. The number of completed interviews (column 7) is people who agreed to be interviewed and were last exiting the targeted recreation site; therefore they answered all questions on the survey form. Column 8 “average number of completed interviews per day” is calculated by dividing the number of complete interviews (column 7) by the number of completed sample days within that stratum (Table 1 column 4). Column 9 is the number of sample days for which no last exiting recreation interviews were obtained. Table 31 Nonproxy summary results by sampling stratum Stratum Site Type Use Level/proxy code DUDS High DUDS Medium 80% Confidence Interval (%) No. of Individuals who Agreed to Interview 46,475 19.2 127 95 8.6 0 28.3 7913 13.0 45 41 3.7 0 Average No. of Visits Per Day Site Visit Total 438.4 No. of Complete Interviews Average No. of Complete Interviews Per Day No. of Days with No Complete Interviews DUDS Low 9.8 7256 31.3 25 23 2.6 3 OUDS High 1.0 38 13.6 53 28 3.1 1 OUDS Medium 10.4 198 19.9 22 11 1.2 2 OUDS Low 10.1 3,467 21.7 29 15 1.7 5 OUDS FE4 10.0 7,415 11.6 33 25 4.2 1 OUDS RE2 1.2 766 69.4 5 11 1.2 2 GFA High 47.8 32,219 9.1 207 137 6.2 3 GFA Medium 44.0 75,682 9.1 206 123 4.7 3 14 GFA Low 18.3 321,140 14.8 70 41 1.6 12 WILD High 7.2 144 15.1 8 7 .8 4 WILD Medium 3.1 380 21.4 6 5 .6 6 WILD Low 3.2 2,339 25.9 2 2 .2 7 TOTAL 649,558 Interpreting the results: Table 31 provides useful information about the distribution of existing recreation use on the national forest. Many forests have a large percentage of their recreation use in the General Forest Area (GFA) low use stratum. Because developed sites such as picnic areas (DUDS) and campgrounds (OUDS) have a short use season in many parts of the country, and the General Forest Areas are open year round, it makes some intuitive sense that this stratum would receive higher use. When examining the forest niche it’s useful to note which site types receive the most use. How many complete interviews were obtained for each stratum? If a particular stratum, for example Wilderness low, has no complete interviews, then one cannot be certain data in the other tables, such as demographics or satisfaction, apply to people visiting the forest on Wilderness low use days. However, if Wilderness medium and high use level days had a significant number of complete interviews, the remaining descriptive information about Wilderness visitors likely applies. In most cases, when an insufficient number of interviews were obtained, the information is suppressed in table outputs. Was the National Forest Visit confidence interval width 15% or less? The NVUM program has a fifteen percent confidence interval width (error rate) target. This is a very acceptable target for large scale national and regional samples. If the forest confidence interval width is greater than fifteen percent of the total visitation estimate, this could indicate wide variability in observed use within some stratum that could be corrected in round 2. For example, the example forest has a 31.3 % confidence interval width for DUDS Low. This interval indicates the forest should look very closely at how all the sites were divided into high, medium, low and no use/closed. By looking closely at the site visit average by stratum, the forest may be able to narrow down the areas of high variability that contributed to the large confidence interval width. For example as shown in Table 1, the range of site visits per day on the example NF in the GFA stratum was 47.8 site visits per day in the High stratum, 44.0 in medium, and 18.3 in low. Since the high and medium stratum average is about the same, the forest could possibly reallocate some high and medium days to obtain a greater difference between these two stratum averages. At this point it may also help to print out a copy of the Site/Strata report from the pre-work database. This report will provide a list of every site or area in 15 the pre-work and show which days were listed as high, medium, and low for every site. Another way to detect the source of variability that causes large confidence interval widths is to look at the individual stratum variability. As shown in Table 31 on the example NF, the GFA Low stratum had high variability (31.1) A primary cause for this is that during GFA survey days a wide range of visitation estimates was observed. For example on the medium use survey days the number of last exiting visitors may have been 0, 50, 20, 5, and 200. This is a wider range than if the number of last exiting visitors observed had been 120, 45, 18, 30, and 62, even though the average of the two sets of numbers is exactly the same. Better classification of days may help reduce the variability observed within each stratum. In particular, are there large numbers of zero traffic days in medium or higher strata? Are there large numbers of higher visitation days in low strata? Were there at least 30 last exiting recreation interviews obtained in all site type strata? The minimum recommended sample for statistical analysis for any visitor characteristics for a sample stratum is 30 observations. If the forest did not obtain at least 30 interviews from last-exiting recreation visitors, identify which stratum received a smaller number and investigate whether this could be improved through redistribution of the high, medium, low, and closed use levels. As shown in Table 31, the example NF had a total of 16 last exiting Wilderness recreation interviews, 8 in high, 6 in medium, and 2 in low. Essentially, there were not enough interviews obtained in the Wilderness stratum to provide statistically reliable use estimates. The forest should examine the sites listed in this stratum and the distribution of high, medium, and low days. How do visitors access Wilderness? What times of year and days of the week are visitors most likely to be exiting the Wilderness? On what days and which locations could more interviews be obtained? Are these areas adequately captured with existing stratification or should changes be made? How many interviews were obtained? Table 31 also shows the example NF averaged .8 last exiting recreation interviews per day in the Wilderness stratum. The forest should consider categorizing high and medium days so that more interviews are obtained. Remember the goal is to detect systematic errors in categorizing sites, not fix just those sites selected for sampling. There are many reasons for a low number of interviews on any particular day including weather, road speed, eagerness of interviewer to stop visitors, and lack of visitors. Keep these in mind before jumping to conclusions that any one stratum was done “wrong”. How many zero interview days did the Forest have? As shown in Table 1, in the General Forest Area Low site type, the example NF sampled 26 days. On 12 of the 26 days (Table 31) there were no interviews obtained. The forest might want to revisit the sites listed in GFA and especially those days labeled low use. They may wish to show more no use days on days likely to produce no last exiting recreation visitors. 16 Review results from each completed survey day The forest can review how well their round 1 sample calendar and subsequent sample days performed by studying Table 33 of the NRIS HD-NVUM 1.2 database. A random number selection process was used to pick sample sites out of the population of site days listed in the pre-work. However, forests noticed some sites got selected for interviewing more than others. This usually happened when a particular site was the only one in its site type that had high or medium use days. This can be verified by looking at the high and medium days in the pre-work database. The new “very high” category may be useful to isolate special sites within a site type, allowing the forest to label more than one site with high or medium use. The limitations put on the selection of sample days may also cause one site to be sampled more than others. The program limits the number of sites to sample on any particular calendar day to 2 per forest. Typically, the summer season has many sites showing high or medium use every weekend. Consequently almost every weekend day has 2 sites allocated for sampling. Thus, a high or medium site day outside this season may have a higher probability of getting sampled. For example, an OUDS site with high use days in the shoulder or winter season is likely to get picked. Table 31 Description Table 33 is provided for the purpose of helping managers see how all the components of the completed sample fit together. By reviewing each sample day’s basic information, a manager can judge how well the prework was done and how other factors such as weather, site closures, or other factors may or may not have affected the sample days accomplished. Columns 1 and 2 describe the site type and use level or proxy code of the particular sample day. Column 3 shows the date the sample day was accomplished. Column 4 gives the assigned site number of the site and column 5 gives the name of the site or area sampled. Column 6 is the calculated exiting traffic count. Exiting traffic count is the estimate of total daily exiting traffic units for that sample day. A traffic unit may be people and/or vehicles. It was calculated from information recorded by the interviewer including a hand tally count, traffic count, and interviews. Column 7 displays the number of individuals who agreed to the interview and column 8 shows how many of those in column 7 completed a full interview. They completed a full interview if they were last exiting recreation users at the site listed in column 5 on the day listed in column 3. 17 Table 33 Results from each completed survey day Stratum Site Type Use Level or Proxy Code Date Sampled Site No. DUDS Low 1/1/2002 9 West Fork Picnic DUDS Low 1/5/2002 15 Smokey Ski Area GFA High 7/4/02 23456 FS Rd 22 jct with FS Rd 42 Site Name Exiting Traffic Count 15.8 550 No. of Individuals Who Agreed to Interview No. of Complete Interviews 5 2 50 45 20 19 Interpreting the Results Some forests had a low number of complete interviews at sites they thought would have a fair amount of recreation use. By reviewing Table 33 managers may be able to better understand how their sample turned out as it did. If there was a high number of people who agreed to be interviewed (column 7) but a low number of complete interviews (column 8) it could mean there was recreation use at the site on the day shown but no one was last exiting the site on that day. It was not uncommon for forests to mislabel high last exiting recreation use days, confusing it with actual site use on any particular day. This was especially true in Overnight Use Developed Sites. A good review by knowledgeable forest employees of information in Table 33 will greatly assist forest managers in improving their prework prior to participating in the NVUM sample a second time. Once the information is reviewed and a stratum with high variability is identified (for example GFA Medium), the sample day information can be reviewed to detect potential systematic categorization errors. The exiting vehicle count represents an estimate of the total recreation traffic for the interview day, and the number of last exiting recreation interviews obtained affects the calculation of recreation visits. The ratio of the hand tally count (which counted exiting traffic) and the ratio of last exiting recreation visitors to other visitors are used to calibrate the traffic count. If fewer than 30 visitor contacts were made in a particular stratum a regional average is used to obtain the proportion of last exiting recreation traffic. Therefore, another source of variability is the lack of interviews on a sample day. Some questions to investigate when reviewing all this information include: 1. Look up the site name for the site numbers with very high or low numbers in the stratum. Are these truly high or low use areas? 18 2. Notice the date the sample occurred. Is this usually a high use day for that particular site? 3. Are there other sites that were not sampled that are like the sample sites and may also have particular problems with use level categorization? Review Activity participation information Table 13 Description Visitor activity participation such as that provided in Table 13 is a good indicator of the types of recreation opportunities and settings in current demand by recreation visitors. Column 1 lists the specific outdoor recreation activity measured. First, survey respondents were asked to pick all the recreation activities they had participated in during their current National Forest Visit. Columns 2 and 3 summarize this information in percent and list the total number of respondents who picked this activity. Survey respondents could pick more than one of the 26 activities measured so column 2 may total over 100%. Survey respondents were asked to select just one of their activities as their main reason for the National Forest Visit. These responses are summarized in columns 4 and 5 as percentages and the total number of respondents who picked this activity as their main activity. In some cases respondents picked more than one main activity, so column 4 may total more than 100%. Table 13 Activity participation Activity % Participation Participation (n) % Main Activity Main Activity (n) Developed Camping 8.9 29.3 2.9 71 Primitive Camping 5.1 73 .7 7 Backpacking 1.9 54 .9 27 Resort Use 1.9 50 .3 5 Picnicking 3.0 132 .3 19 52.7 744 5.3 95 Visiting Historic Sites 2.1 35 0 0 Nature Center Activities 1.7 63 0 0 Nature Study 5.7 113 .1 .1 Relaxing 44.6 702 6.6 143 Fishing 14.5 267 8.6 119 Hunting 3.9 44 3.3 36 OHV Use 5.5 117 1.9 47 16.7 265 1.3 22 .7 4 .6 2 Viewing Natural Features Driving for Pleasure Snowmobiling 19 Activity Motorized Water Activities % Participation Participation (n) % Main Activity Main Activity (n) 3.7 74 .7 14 .2 5 .1 .1 33.3 683 10.7 231 .7 13 .6 10 Bicycling 2.3 53 .7 10 Non-motorized Water 3.7 78 1.2 18 35.2 54 34.3 52 Cross-country Skiing 2.7 14 1.3 10 Other Non-motorized 13.5 283 5 83 Gathering Forest Products 2.5 55 1.2 11 Viewing Wildlife 30.9 578 .3 6 - - - - 2.0 45 1.1 18 Other Motorized Activity Hiking / Walking Horseback Riding Downhill Skiing Sightseeing No activity reported Interpreting the Results Table 13 indicates that viewing natural features (52.7%), relaxing (44.6%), downhill skiing (35.2%), hiking/walking (33.3%), and viewing wildlife (30.9%) were the top five recreation activities (column 2, rows 6, 10, 22, 18 and 26) pursued by survey respondents on the Example National Forest. When survey respondents were asked to identify their main recreation activity for their current National Forest Visit their top five choices were downhill skiing (34.3%), hiking/walking (10.5), fishing (8.6%), relaxing (6.6%) and viewing natural features (5.3%), (column 4, rows 22, 18, 26, 10, and 6). Clearly downhill skiing is a primary destination activity on the Example National Forest because 35.2% of all respondents said they had participated in skiing (column 2, row 22) and 34.3% of respondents said it was their main activity (column 4, row 22) during their National Forest Visit. Were a sufficient number of interviews obtained from visitors who participated in the motivational activities offered on the forest? Sufficient is defined by each forest with respect to the importance of a particular activity on the forest. If the forest thinks certain activities were over or under represented in the activity participation numbers, they should look at the number of interviews obtained for a particular activity and identify where these activities occur. Then, identify the NVUM sites or areas that would capture this use and access whether the high, medium, low and closed/no use site days shown in round 1 had the potential to adequately capture these types of activities. If not, make corrections. Table 13 shows that 0.7% of visitors participated in snowmobiling. Is snowmobiling a large use on the forest? Example 1 explains how to get a 20 general idea if snowmobiling was under-sampled in the survey. The pre-work GFA exit points shown open in winter should be reviewed. Were an adequate amount of site days shown open at the appropriate times to capture snowmobiles? Were the appropriate winter capture points shown in the prework as a site in GFA? Or, was it a late or low snow year that caused the problem? If not, change the pre-work to improve the chances of capturing snowmobile use. To get a rough feel for how accurate the % participation might be multiply the National Forest Site Visit number for the forest as a whole by the % for that activity. This will give an approximate maximum number of people who may have participated in the activity. Since this was a multiple choice question in the survey the % participation will not total 100%. Example 1: Snowmobiling Four interviews in which visitors said they participated in snowmobiling were obtained on the Example NF. The calculated NVUM participation rate for snowmobiling is 0.7%. There were 649,558 site visits on this forest (Table 1 column 4). Initially the forest recreation folks felt that snowmobiling was much higher. However, 0.7 % of 649,558 equal 4,547 snowmobile site visits. The snowmobile season is about 120 days long, use is primarily on weekends. Are there more than 38 people snowmobiling on an average winter day (4,547 120)? Does that number seem reasonable? If not, the forest needs to take a close look at the sites and areas listed in the database and determine which of these sites would have best captured the activity use in question. Then examine how the high, medium, low and closed/no use days for those sites were labeled. Example 2: Hunting Olympic National Forest managers believe big game hunting is a motivational activity with high use on their forest. Forty-one interviews in which visitors said they participated in hunting were obtained on the forest. The calculated NVUM participation rate for hunting was 4.3%. There were 512,838 site visits to the Olympic NF at the 80% confidence level 12.7%. Using the same method as in Example 1 we calculate about 22,052 hunting site visits. There are two main hunting seasons on the forest (deer and elk seasons) which total about 80 days. Are there about 275 people hunting on the forest each day (or some version of that emphasizing more weekend and opening day use)? If not, identify where the major exit points for hunters are on the forest. Then look at whether these sites were shown as open or close/no use during the hunting season. If open, were the high, medium, and low exiting recreation days shown correctly? Review Proxy Summary Results Table 32 Description Table 32 provides detailed information on how the recreation use estimates at proxy sites were calculated. Each national forest provided the actual proxy count for each proxy site during the year sampled. Proxy data for each site is assumed to be a very accurate record of actual site use. It is the one place in 21 the NVUM data where the annual site visit estimate is accurate at the site level. Column 1 gives the site type of the specific recreation site for which the proxy count was reported. Column 2 describes the type of proxy that was counted. The assigned site number is given in column 3 and the name of the recreation site is reported in column 4. The site number was assigned to the recreation site in the NVUM Prework Database. Columns 5 through 9 describe how the total proxy use estimate for each site was calculated. The number of days surveyed at each site is shown in column 5. Note that not all proxy sites were surveyed. However, each proxy stratum did have assigned survey days. The information collected on these survey days was then applied to all other sites within the proxy stratum. Column 6 displays the total number of completed interviews obtained on the accomplished survey days. Column 7 displays the proxy number reported by the selected national forest. This number was obtained from the forest, not through sampling. In order to convert the proxy count into a site visit estimate, several questions were asked of visitors. The responses to these questions were then used to calculate the conversion factor shown in column 8. The annual site visit estimate (column 9) is then calculated by multiplying the reported proxy number by the conversion factor (column 7 x column 8). Table 32 Proxy summary results Site Type Proxy Site No. Survey Days Site Name No. of Complete Interviews Proxy Number Reported by Forest Conversion Factor Annual Site Visit Estimate OUDS FE4 14 Vigilante Campground 1 4 222 3.12 692 OUDS FE4 15 Moose Creek Campground 0 0 196 3.12 611 OUDS FE4 16 Park Lane Campground 1 4 409 3.12 1274 OUDS FE4 17 Kading Campground 2 10 166 3.12 517 OUDS FE4 18 Cromwell/Dixon Campground 1 7 409 3.12 1274 OUDS FE4 19 Spend Grove Campground 1 0 547 3.12 1704 OUDS FE4 21 Copper Creek Campground 0 0 431 3.12 1343 OUDS RE2 8 Eagle Gulch Cabin 0 0 66 1.3 86 OUDS RE2 9 Thompson Cabin 2 2 117 1.3 152 OUDS RE2 10 Bar Gulch Cabin 0 0 95 1.3 123 22 Site Type Proxy Site No. Survey Days Site Name No. of Complete Interviews Proxy Number Reported by Forest Conversion Factor Annual Site Visit Estimate OUDS RE2 11 Strawberry Cabin 0 0 37 1.3 48 OUDS RE2 12 Kadin Cabin 1 1 97 1.3 126 OUDS RE2 13 Indian Flats Cabin 2 2 80 1.3 104 OUDS RE2 20 Cummings Cabin 0 0 99 1.3 128 Interpreting the Results In the example shown above, seven sites are listed in the OUDS/ FE4 (number of fee envelopes collected for each campsite) stratum (column 4, rows 1-7). Within this stratum 6 survey days were accomplished (column 5, rows 1-7) but two of those sites had no survey days (column 5, rows 2 and 7). In most cases, if no survey days are shown, that particular site was not picked for sampling. The forest staff reported a total of 2,380 fee envelopes collected (column 7, rows 1 - 7) at these seven sites. From the 25 interviews done at these sites (column 6, rows 1-7) and the questions they answered related to this proxy code on the survey form, a conversion factor was developed (column 8). This factor converts the proxy count of “number of fee envelopes collected” to a “site visit” estimate. The conversion factor in this case takes into account the number of people per envelope and the number of envelopes a group filled out during the average stay. Each proxy code has its own conversion factors that are calculated using the results of questions asked visitors at the particular proxy sites. The data provided in Table 32 is useful for site, district, and forest planning. The information is valid at the site level because the proxy counted all the use at each specific proxy site. Comparing the reported use to site capacity can give planners a good sense of site utilization. This allows for work force planning and other resource allocation decisions. For example, the forest is considering how cost effective it is to maintain and rent their cabins. By looking at the information supplied in this table we see that seven cabins were rented a total of 591 times (column 7, rows 8-14) adding up to 767 site visits (column 9, rows 8-14). Strawberry Cabin was rented out 37 times for a total of 48 site visits. If the forest had other cabins used to capacity they might consider encouraging rental towards Strawberry Cabin. Is the proxy numbers reported by the forest in round 1 reasonable for that site? Do the conversion factor and its resulting Site Visit estimate make sense for that site? The forest needs to evaluate whether or not the proxy information reported provided an accurate picture of site visits. Proxy information was converted to site visit estimates by the NVUM team. For example, the proxy DUR4 means a daily use record of sites occupied. This number was reported 23 by the forest. NVUM then converted the DUR4 number to site visits. Information used came from the surveys that asked visitors at DUR4 sites: 1) how many nights did you stay in this site and 2) how many people were in this site with you. The DUR4 number reported by the forest was then divided by the average number of nights a person stayed at the site, then multiplied by the average number of people per site, which produced the site visit estimate. One way to test how reasonable the number is would be to divide the total site visit estimate for that site by the number of open site days. For example, on the Gifford Pinchot NF, for Iron Creek CG, an Overnight Developed Site with proxy code DUR4, the forest shows 136 open site days and reported 3,519 occupied sites during that time. From the interviews at DUR4 sites the average number of people per site was calculated and the conversion rate of 2.09 is used to convert the daily site occupancy (# reported by forest) to site visit estimates. There are two ways to check how good this information is. First, divide the proxy number reported (3,519) by the open site days (136). The result is 25.8 sites occupied each day of the use season. Does Iron Creek CG have at least 25 sites? If not, the wrong units were reported as the proxy number or the wrong proxy code was used. Another way to look at this information is to divide the site visit estimate by the total number of open days (7,346 / 136 = 54). Is it reasonable to see about 54 people on the average at this site each day? Remember, this is only a rough measure since the conversions were developed from interviewing at all the DUR4 sites and there are differences between sites. Information Available from the Pre-work Access database: There are two very useful reports that can be run from the “Edit Site Calendar” tab. These are “Check dates” which will show any missed or double counted days for the site you are working on, and “Site Description” which will print out all the descriptive information related to the site you are working on. The remaining reports are run from the “reports” tab. After opening the “reports” tab there are three drop down choices for reports: “site reports”, “calendar reports”, and “other reports”. Following is a description of each report and how it might be useful for prework. Site Reports: Report: Single site Use this report to obtain information about just one site listed in the prework. Report: Site List (all) This report will provide a list of all sites and areas listed in the database for your forest. It summarizes all information entered about each site except the calendar of open and closed days. Output will be by site type (Day Use Developed, Overnight Developed, etc.). 24 Are all qualifying developed sites listed? Review the definitions for qualifying site types in Appendix A. Update the database as needed. Are the site names descriptive enough so that anyone on the forest knows the site or area that is meant? If not, improve the site name. In round 1, forests were not required to name GFA sites with descriptive names. This caused problems for interviewers trying to locate their interview spot. In round 2, make sure site names are a clear description of the location. For example: change “site 61” to “FSR 22 at jct with FSR 26”. Also Day Use Developed and Overnight Developed site names must match those used in the INFRA Developed Sites Module. The INFRA connection will allow for additional analysis between the two databases in the future. Hint: It is now possible to add a detailed description of how to get to the site. On the main input screen of the Pre-work Database click on the Description box and type in direction to the site. Are Wilderness portals adequately captured by the sites or areas listed? Are visitors to the General Forest Area adequately captured? Are there any unique ways of entering GFA that are not captured- for example river use? Are complexes composed of multiple site types broken out correctly in the prework? There are many cases where a site composed of multiple facilities was broken into separate strata and caused confusion on the part of the interviewer. In cases where there are no separate entrances for parts of a complex, list the complex by the predominate use and do not list the smaller pieces separately. Example: A campground has a few picnic sites or a shelter WITHIN the campground. The campground was listed in the OUDS strata and the picnic shelter was listed in the DUDS strata. When the interviewer was assigned the DUDS shelter to interview at, they interviewed everyone who exited the campground. When they were assigned the campground as an interview day (OUDS) they interviewed everyone who exited the campground, including people who used the picnic shelter. In this case, it would be best to delete (make inactive) the DUDS shelter and just list the site as a campground. When someone uses the shelter, they will be counted as part of the campground use. Are all INFRA numbers entered in the INFRA field correct? NVUM preloaded the infra numbers but there were cases where more than one infra number was listed for one site and other cases where one infra number was used for multiple sites. Use the infra number for the largest PAOT area of the complex listed. Infra numbers are not listed for GFA or View Corridors. Report: Site List (select district) Same as above except for a selected district. Report: Site Lat/Longs This report displays a list of the latitude and longitude values for all sites and areas. Use this report is you are just working on verifying and correcting latitude and longitude information. You can make hard copy changes to the report and then have one person make all the needed changes at once. Report: Site Directions and Comments 25 This report will be useful once the forest receives their sample calendar. It can be used for contracts or to give interviewers so they can find the exact location of the interview sites. Report: Travel Way Safety: This report provides a summary of which travelways were identified in the GFA and View Corridor strata as being high speed roads, having unsafe interview locations or both. To improve sampling use this list to review the exit points identified and try to move the sample locations to either low speed roads or safe interview locations. Forests did not have much success in obtaining interviews from visitors on high speed roads. Report: Travel Way Safety-all This report is similar to the Travel Way Safety report but lists ALL exit points with their road speed and whether the interview location is labeled safe or unsafe. Report: Site Errors This report automatically scans all data entered for the forest and gives a list of any errors that need to be corrected. Run this report prior to sending your final NVUM data back to the team. Report: Proxy List Lists all site names with proxy codes. Report: Nonproxy List Lists all nonproxy site names and site numbers. Calendar Reports: Report: Site Day List This report summarizes the use levels by calendar day assigned to each site. Report: High/ Very High Days This very useful report will list all the high and very high use days by month. It is very helpful to use when you think you have too many days in this stratum and want to find which sites they were assigned to. Since “very high” was not an option in round 1, no days will appear as very high until changes are made in the prework database. Reports: Strata Distribution – Round 1 & Strata Distribution – Round 2 These reports used together or alone are extremely useful for checking how the stratification of all sites and days is distributed. The report from round 1 can be compared to the report from round 2 to see changes made throughout the database. For example, many forests in round 1 used “low” on their lesser used forest road exit points for all 365 days of the year. Through sampling in round 1 they found these roads often had no use. In round 2 the forest may show many of these exit roads as “inactive” or label weekdays and the off season as “closed/no use”. This extent of this change can be monitored by comparing these two reports. Report: Site Day List (select district) 26 Same as Site Day report except for a specified district. Report: Site Day Charts (legal) This report provides a table and graph which illustrate the distribution of high, medium, low and closed site days by month. The report is available by site type. For example for all Day Use Developed sites the output shows the distribution of open sites days for each month of the year. At a glance the forest can see how they categorized use for the entire year. This same report can be run to show only days that were selected for sampling on the forest in round 1. Does the distribution of open recreation site days by month reflect the forests local knowledge of peak and low use months? If not, this may indicate improperly labeled high, medium, low and closed days. This analysis is available for each site type which will allow the forest to zero in on any potential problem areas. Does the distribution of selected of sample days in round 1 (by month and site type) follow the same pattern as the distribution of open recreation site days looked at above? By comparing the graph of all open site days to the graph of selected sample days, the forest can see how well the selected round 1 sample compared to the distribution of use during the year. If the graphs do not show a similar distribution, this may indicate the selected sample was not representative of overall use on the forest and could explain some of the error. Are seasonal fluctuations in use captured? The Forest really needs to look closely at whether or not special seasonally use activities will be captured based upon which sites and areas show open days. For example if snowmobiling is a high use activity on the Forest, are a proportionate amount of days shown as open with high or medium use at the sites where this use can be captured? For big game hunting season- did the forest show high or medium use days when big game hunters are most likely to be EXITING the forest for the day? Are the correct exit locations shown? Report: Site Day Calendar (legal) This report gives a calendar of assigned site days and use levels for forest. Other Reports Report: Scenic Byway List This report automatically gives a list of qualifying scenic byways for the View Corridor stratum for the forest being edited. Reports: Contacts This report gives the names of individuals who edited the database on your forest. Report: Proxy List This report will give all available proxy codes and their meaning. Report: Holidays This report lists the observed federal holidays for each year. 27 Appendix A: National Visitor Use Monitoring Definitions NAME Abbreviation DEFINITION UNITS OF MEASURE NF Visit NFV The entry of one person upon a national forest to participate in recreation activities for an unspecified period of time. A national forest visit can be composed of multiple site visits. Site Visit SV the entry of one person onto a national forest site or area to participate in recreation activities for an unspecified period of time Site Day A day that a recreation site or area is open to the public for recreation purposes Recreation trip The duration of time beginning when the visitor left their home and ending when they got back to their home Variance The mean of the squares of the variations from the mean of a frequency distribution; a set of n measurements y1, y2, y3…yn, with a mean y is the sum of the squared deviations divided by n-1. Standard deviation or standard error The square root of the variance; a statistic used as a measure of dispersion in a distribution, the square root of the arithmetic average of the squares of the deviations from the mean Coefficient of variation The standard error divided by the mean Confidence interval A statistical range with a specified probability that a given parameter lies within the range Error rate The coefficient of variation multiplied by the specified confidence interval width Confidence interval & error rate Used together these two terms define the reliability of the estimated visits. The confidence interval defines the range of values around the estimated visits with a specified level of certainty. The error rate is the upper and lower bounds of the confidence interval. The lower the error rate and the higher the confidence level the better the estimate. An 80 percent confidence interval is very acceptable at a broad national or forest scale. The two terms are used to statistically describe the estimate. For example: at the 80 percent confidence level there are 209 million national 28 forest visits plus or minus 17 percent. In other words we are 80 percent confident that the estimated number of national forest visits lies between 173.5 and 244.5 million. SITE TYPES Day Use Developed Site DUDS Sites that meet the INFRA definition development scale for Moderate, Heavily, or High degree of modification. These are sites that provide for visitor comfort, convenience and/or educational opportunities. Sites with facilities that provide for health and safety only are not considered developed sites. DUDS may include the following; picnic sites (family and group), fishing sites (sometimes), fish viewing sites (sometimes), information sites (sometimes), interpretive sites (sometimes), playgrounds, downhill ski areas, wildlife viewing sites (sometimes), developed caves, winter play sites, and any other sites opened only for day use. Group proxy sites (15 or more people) have different proxy codes than family proxy sites. Some developed sites listed in INFRA do not count as DUDS in NVUM. This includes trailheads, boat launches, parking lots, OHV staging areas, Scenic Overlooks, or Ranger Stations. In Alaska and other very remote areas the same definition applies including listing developed Shelters (outside Wilderness) as DUDS. Whenever the development scale of the site has a high degree of modification which may include outhouses, shelters, and fire rings, list the site as a DUDS. In the case of low use Shelters, the “use level” category can be used to minimize interviewing on 0 use days. For example, list open site days as Low only on weekends and show Closed the rest of the year even though the site is not physically closed- use is the same as if it were closed. Note that in Region 10 it was decided NOT to list Shelters in Wilderness as DUDS, which is the same rule as applies to other regions. Also note that the Interpretive programs on the Alaska Marine Highway ferry system, although listed in INFRA as an interpretive site are NOT considered DUDS in NVUM. This travel route should be listed in the View Corridor stratum. Overnight Developed Site OUDS sites with facilities that meet the INFRA definition for development scales of Moderate, Heavily, or High degree of modification. These sites include campgrounds (family and group), fire lookouts and cabins available for overnight lodging (including all those outside designated Wilderness 29 in Alaska), resorts, lodges, hotels, horse camps, and any other overnight developed sites on NFS lands whether managed by the Forest Service or private business (concession or special use permit). Proxy group campgrounds (sites that hold 15 or more people) have different proxy codes than family proxy campgrounds. Following are things that may be considered as overnight developed sites in INFRA that do not count under the NVUM OUDS strata: Wilderness W Recreation residences - they are counted as part of GFA use at the time of the interview. Organization Camps (church, scout, etc) - use will be counted at the end of the year through the SUP use reports and added to the total use on the forest. Lesser-developed campgrounds such as small hunters camps (with limited facilities) - the use will be captured under GFA strata. If the facilities are rustic and are not designed for the comfort and convenience of the visitor the sites are not developed sites for the purpose of the NVUM project. Do not include any facilities located on private property, even when located within the Forest boundary – however if there are trails or access points where people go from the private property to the Forest to recreate they should be included as a GFA exit point. Recreation events will not be listed on the spreadsheet - Forests will track this use separately using a special events form, reporting the total number of visitors on a quarterly basis. This use will be added to the totals at the end of the year. Cabins outside Wilderness should be listed as OUDS Areas in the Forest that are part of the National Wilderness Preservation System. List all trailheads and other access points such as boat take-outs. Proxy counts would include mandatory wilderness permits required of ALL users (day and overnight). In Region 10 and other very remote, low use Wilderness capturing visitors has proven extremely difficult. For 30 remote Wilderness with cabins, list the cabins as an exit point. Do this only if it is highly unlikely those cabin users would be caught elsewhere. For example, cabins in Wilderness along the Appalachian Trail would not be listed as access points because the cabin users would also be captured as they exit along the AT trail. However cabins in Wilderness with NO trail access would serve as the only likely place the visitor would ever get captured, and should then be listed. Wilderness users in the lower 48 are usually captured at trailheads, boat take-outs, or roads as they exit the Wilderness. However, in Alaska most Wilderness access is by boat or float plane. Capturing this use is challenging. For example, in Year 1 2.4 million acres of designated Wilderness were within the sample area, yet there were only 37 miles of trail. Air carriers and boat harbors were used to capture these visitors and yielded only 31 interviews on 30 sample days. 21 Wilderness days were sampled at boat harbors. On nine days (42%) interviews were obtained and on 8 days no traffic counts were obtained. Air carrier sample points were also mixed. Wilderness had 4 sample days at air carriers, which yielded no interviews at all (0%), and no traffic counts on 2 of those days. As a result of this, both Wilderness cabin use and Outfitter Guide use of Wilderness have been added to the Wilderness use counts in Alaska. List each Wilderness cabin separately as a Wilderness exit point. These will be proxy sites. A special sampling strategy for cabins has also been developed. Special procedures for sampling cabins are outlined in the Interviewer handbook. List boat docks/harbors and air carriers that may serve as Wilderness exit points in the pre-work. When rating the open site days as high, medium, or low, remember you are rating high, medium or low exiting Wilderness use at the harbor or air carrier, not general use or even general forest use. Outfitter & Guide use of Wilderness will be reported on the quarterly “Recreation Special Event and Organization Camp report submitted during the sample year. In Alaska this use is proxy and should be listed in the proxy data as PTC1. General GFA Include all dispersed recreation use other than Wilderness (hiking, fishing, water sports, etc.). There are differences 31 Forest Area between the NVUM and INFRA definition of General Forest Areas (GFA). For the NVUM project the entire dispersed area of the forest is considered one big GFA and is not broken down by county or district as it is in INFRA. Roads included in the GFA category are almost always forest service managed or maintained roads. In some instances non-forest service roads are entered ONLY because they are the most logical place to stop visitors who have actually recreated ON the general forest area accessed by the road. General Forest Areas in Alaska are often accessed by water or air transportation. The visitors NF experience may occur many miles from their transportation take-off point. Therefore, boat harbors and air carriers are major exit sample points to capture GFA visits in Alaska. This strategy provided mixed results during Year 1 sampling. GFA had 21 sample days at air-carriers, which yielded interviews on 12 days (57%). No traffic counts were obtained on 16 of those days. Seven GFA days were sampled at boat harbors and yielded NO interviews (0%). On 4 of those days no traffic counts were obtained. The forest said there was a difference in obtaining visitor information from fixed wing versus helicopter air carriers. There was also a problem getting information and permission to interview at some air carrier exit points. Special attention must be paid to the categorization of boat docks/ harbors during the forest pre-work. Make sure there will be recreation use, or at least the chances of finding at least one recreation visitor are fairly high. This means listing the area as closed/0 use during the off-season. Boat harbors are difficult to categorize and sample because 1) some have multiple docks and one parking lot 2) some have multiple docks and several parking lots 3) some have mixed use but a different proportion of each type of use (rec/ nonrec) on each dock in the same harbor. It’s critical during the pre-work to visit the boat harbors to determine the actual situation. If there are multiple boat ramps or docks that 1) serve the same type of users (recreation and commercial) and 2) all users go to the same parking lot, then list the boat harbor as just one site. If there are multiple boat ramps or docks that go to different parking lots associated with the harbor complex, break the boat harbor into the logical 32 components; matching boat ramps to parking lots and list each as a separate site in the pre-work. List all ramps to the same parking lot together unless they serve very different users. For example Sealing harbor has multiple ramps going into the same parking lot. Its possible to get a 24- hour count in the parking lot and interview in the parking lot. Note: when combining separate ramps into one site it may change the use stratum- for example each separate ramp was listed as low use but when 5 ramps are combined they become 1 medium use site…. If there are multiple boat ramps or docks but these serve different types or proportions of users, list each ramp or dock as a separate site. For example, at Ketchikan harbor one dock is primarily commercial fisherman, one is tour boat operators, one is a mixture of private boats commercial and recreation, and yet another is primarily out of area boat moorage. All the docks need to be listed as separate sites in the pre-work. None are representative of the other. Exclude strictly commercial docks from the prework because the likelihood of finding National Forest visitors is very slim. If some ramps get more use than others don’t list them together. Categorization of Air Carriers Air carriers may be located at public float docks or private commercial docks. When listing air-carriers as GFA or Wilderness exit points list only those where visitors end up setting foot ON national forest land, not just fly over it. Before committing data sources as proxy in the pre-work track down the data source and make sure the proxy data is both available and useful for the study. If the data available doesn’t fit one of the already established proxy codes but you think it might be useful call Don English to discuss. Several types of counts that qualify as proxy are possible. Total craft landing at a float pond or dock. In this case we will need interviews to calibrate the number of landings for national forest recreation versus total landings. 33 Total aircraft landing on the national forest land. Cordova was able to get this for the pilot study but we aren’t sure this is commonly available information. Outfitter Guide use reports as proxy for GFA use: Outfitter and Guide reports are not permitted as proxy for GFA because of the possibility of double counting the same visitors. An exception can be made in special cases where the forest has a very remote area only used by O&G and can provide an accurate count for that area only. View Corridor VC Measures the number of visitors who only pass through the NFS lands to view the scenery. These visitors travel on non-forest service managed corridors such as state, interstate, or county highways, rivers, trails, trains, and boats, but the visitor does not actually recreate on the Forest. View Corridor listed travelways are ALWAYS nonforest service owned. Airplane travel that does not originate on NFS lands is not included in this stratum. To identify travelways for Round 2: Gather all travelways information relevant to the forest including those listed in round 1, any scenic roads on the drop down list of the Access database, and any other nonFS managed travelways on the forest with scenic qualities that are at least in part dependant upon the national forest scenery. Consult with the Forest Engineer and Forest Landscape Architect to be sure no important scenic travelways are overlooked. Next, apply the Scenic Management System or Visual Management System criteria to the list developed above. All forests have previously conducted a scenic inventory for Forest Planning, although in same cases this inventory may be hard to locate or may be outdated. Apply the SMS or VMS criteria only to non-forest service travelways. Landscapes are viewed to varying degrees from different locations and subsequently differ in their importance. To assist scenic inventory and analysis, this importance can be ranked by concern levels. Concern levels are a measure of the degree of public importance placed on landscapes viewed from travelways. They are divided into three levels; high, medium and low. List only those travelways that meet concern levels 1 or 2 as shown in the table below. 34 Apply this scenic criteria to travelways identified in Step 1. Then edit the NVUM Access database, View Corridor tab with this information. Additional information in this database page include the begin milepost of the travelway, the segment length in miles, and the latitude and longitude information. If there is an interview point along this travelway use the latitude and longitude of this point. If there is no interview point use the latitude and longitude of the begin milepost. Table 1. Scenic Management System Concern Levels for Travelways (SMS handbook page 4-8). HIERARCHY OF CONCERN LEVELS Interest in Scenery High Medium Low Primary Travelway high use 1 2 2 Primary Travelwaymoderate use 1 2 2 Primary Travelway- low use 1 2 3 Secondary Travelwayhigh use 1 2 2 Secondary Travelwaymoderate use 1 2 3 Secondary Travelwaylow use 1 2 3 Important note: This category caused the most overcounting of national forest visits in the old RIM system. Many forests used this category to “up” their use numbers by counting all traffic on interstates that passed near their forest. THIS IS NOT ALLOWED. The VC count is only for those travelways that visitors purposely choose to view national forest scenery. This number is separate from the National Forest Visit total that will be reported. Playing games here will NOT increase national forest visits. Off Forest Recreation OFF In Round 1 some Forests choose to list off site Visitor Centers, Interpretive Programs, etc that are not on FS land but FS recreation dollars are spent on them. In Round 2, the 35 Activities forest should move any qualifying roads or trails into the View Corridor stratum. The remaining items listed in OFF will not be counted or sampled and need not be updated. USE LEVELS- all but the Closed strata are defined by the forest No use N A site or area is administratively closed, inaccessible, or expect to see less than one last exiting person from dawn to dusk. Formerly labeled “closed”. Low L At least 1 last exiting recreation person is expected from dawn to dusk Medium M Defined by forest High H Defined by forest Very High V use for sites that have high use AND the visitor characteristics are very different from other sites within the stratum PROXY CODES Daily Use DUR4 Record of sites occupied Daily use record of sites with PAOT of 14 or less, use for OUDS campgrounds where either FS or concessionaire records occupied campsites on a daily bases, can also use for DUDS picnic sites Daily Use Record of group sites occupied DUR5 Daily use record of sites with PAOT of 15 or more, use for OUDS campgrounds where either FS or concessionaire records occupied campsites on a daily bases, can also use for DUDS picnic sites Fee Envelopes per person FE1 NO LONGER USED- USE FR1 Fee Envelopes issued per vehicle FE3 Fee envelopes issued per vehicle, use in OUDS and DUDS Fee Envelopes issued per site FE4 Fee envelopes issued per family site with a PAOT of 14 or less, use in OUDS and DUDS. For PAOT of 15 or more use FR5. Fee Receipts issued per person FR1 Fee receipts or tickets sold to individual people only. Do not use for ski area winter use. Use in DUDS where a daily pass is sold or individual ticket sales indicate use. Do not use for OUDS. Fee Receipts issued per FR2 Fee receipts or tickets sold per group of 14 or less people 36 small group Fee Receipts issued per vehicle FR3 Fee receipts or tickets sold per vehicle. Fee Receipts issued per large group FR5 Envelopes, permits, or tickets sold per large group of 15 or more people. Mandatory Permit issued per person MA1 Use in Wilderness only. Mandatory permit issued per person for day AND overnight use of entire area Mandatory permit issued per small group MA2 Use in Wilderness only. Mandatory permit issued per small group for day AND overnight use of entire area Permanent Traffic Counter that counts people PTC1 Use in any stratum where every person using the site is counted by the counter, count must be one-way Permanent PTC2 Traffic counter that counts groups NO LONGER USED- USE OTHER CODES Permanent Traffic Counter that counts vehicles PTC3 Use in any stratum where every vehicle using the site is counted by the counter, count must be one-way and adjusted for axles Registration Forms per person RF1 NO LONGER USED- USE RE1 Registration Forms per group RF2 NO LONGER USED- USE RE2 Registration forms per room RF4 NO LONGER USED- USE RE4 Registration forms by individual RE1 Use in OUDS lodges, cabins, resorts, where managers report total number of person nights sold from registers Registration forms by RE2 Use in any stratum where 14 or fewer people register as one 37 small group small group. One registration = one group Registration forms by room RE4 Registration forms for room nights sold use for OUDS lodges, resorts, etc where owner can report total number of room nights sold. Do not use for DUDS, campgrounds, huts or dorms that hold more than one group in one room at a time. Skier Visits SV1 Use for DUDS ski areas where ski area provides the total number of skier days on a report rather than the number of lift tickets sold. The ski area has adjusted this to reflect season pass use, etc. Skier Tickets issued per individual ST1 Use for DUDS ski areas (winter only) where the ski area reports total tickets sold but does not distinguish between season passes or daily passes. Special Use SUP1 Permit issued per individual NO LONGER USED- use other appropriate code for individual counts Special Use permit issued per group SUP2 NO LONGER USED- USE SUP4 or other appropriate code Special use permit per site or cabin SUP4 Use for OUDS cabins, resorts where one permit is issued per group of 14 or fewer people per visit (not for entire season); also FS cabins rented under G-T permits. For larger groups use FR5 Toll booth person count TB1 Use when GFA is close to forest boundary and there are no non toll booth entries into the area, use for DUDS and OUDS only if every person that enters has to pay (no season passes) Toll booth car count TB3 Use when GFA is close to forest boundary and there are no non toll booth entries into the area, use for DUDS and OUDS only if every vehicle that enters has to pay (no season passes) Appendix B: Correcting Latitude and Longitude for National Visitor Use Sample Points CORRECTING LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE FOR NATIONAL VISITOR USE SAMPLE POINTS............................................................................................... 38 Overview and History: 40 Summary of Tasks 40 ArcMap and Importing Coverages Add X-Y Data 45 40 38 Checking & making corrections to the latitude and longitude 39 50 Overview and History: The pre-work round one potential sampling points are identified by the forests and are presented in the software for round two. The location information is presented so that the units can validate the location, to enable the HD module to present maps with point location information, and to allow the units to relocate previous sample points. The scope of the work is limited to checking the coordinates of the points and to facilitate the corrections. The work as defined here is intended to work with the ArcMap tool. This work is not intended to correct the current GIS coverage for your sites or sample points. The work is intended to be within ¼ mile of the actual survey site point. Once all the potential sample points have been corrected use the round two database to edit and correct the latitude and longitude. The complexity of correcting point on your coverage should be discussed with your GIS specialists and is not within the scope of this document. Summary of Tasks The following tasks assume that the user has access to the round one data base file (dbf), ArcMap, a local coverage of boundaries of the unit, access to the Cartographic Feature Files (CFF), Primary Base, Secondary Base or a Visitor Use Map GIS Coverage, and has a basic understanding of how to use ArcMap. New users to ArcMap may want to ask their local GIS specialists for assistance with this process. These tasks are: Import an existing coverage of the forest. Import the CFF files or a copy of your secondary base maps if it exists. Add x-y data from the dbf file for the survey points. Display and identify your site data. Review and correct the information if needed. ArcMap and Importing Coverages The user is asked to import an existing coverage that delineates the unit boundaries. This will automatically set the projection and coordinate systems. Next import a coverage with the location of the developed sites, roads, trails and congressionally designated areas. The best source for this is the scanned and corrected visitor maps that were used in round one. If this is not available then secondary based maps, primary base maps, or the CFFs can be used. Contact your GIS specialist for local file directories where these reside. 40 Open Arc Map As shown below; Start, Programs, ArcGIS, ArcMap. 41 When ArcMap is opened then start a new map: Select the ArcCatalog button: 42 In ArcCatalog navigate to the location of the administrative boundary coverage; in this case it is the Coconino Administrative Boundary Polygon. Select drag and drop this coverage onto the Layers pane in ArcMap. 43 Next import the scanned and corrected visitor map. In this example the Coconino North Visitor Map is selected: Here is the final map, note the layers and working map areas: 44 Add X-Y Data Select tools and Add XY data. Change the “Y” coordinates to latitude and click OK: 45 Here is the final map with the sample points shown in red. Note the location of the cursor’s coordinates on the status bar, the bottom right hand side. 46 Change the coordinate display to show lat and longitude in degree, minutes and seconds by doing a right click on “Layers” and selecting “Properties” as shown. Select Degree Minutes Seconds as shown and click OK: 47 48 Here is the final map that is produced at a smaller scale. 49 Checking & making corrections to the latitude and longitude Pick the blue I from the tool bar and click on the point of interest. It will display a box with the current point information: Note the existing point information will be located on the in the Identify Results box. Near the bottom is the latitude and longitude coordinates. If you want to correct the point information move the cursor to the location where the point should be and note the latitude and longitude listed on the status bar. 50 51