How to Make CCS an Affordable Reality
in Developing Countries?
Howard Herzog
MIT
October 9, 2013
Howard Herzog / MIT Energy Initiative
Overview (1)
• Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS)
is the only technology available to
drastically reduce CO2 emissions from
fossil fuels that also allows the world to
continue to reap their benefits without the
negative impacts associated with climate
change.
Howard Herzog / MIT Energy Initiative
US Electricity Generation by Fuel
Output Relative to 1997
2.6
Output Relative to 1997
2.4
2.2
Coal
2.0
Natural Gas
1.8
Renewables
1.6
1.4
Nuclear
1.2
Total
1.0
0.8
0.6
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Year
Howard Herzog / MIT Energy Initiative
2011
2013
World Energy Consumption
Relative to 2007
1.2
1.15
1.1
Coal
Gas
Total
1.05
1
0.95
0.9
2007
2008
2009
2010
Howard Herzog / MIT Energy Initiative
2011
Overview (2)
• CCS is dependent on climate policies to
drive it, and the current political
environment for climate policy is
unwelcoming.
• Since it is almost always cheaper to emit to
the atmosphere than sequester, CCS
opportunities are limited to niche areas until
carbon policies are put in place.
Howard Herzog / MIT Energy Initiative
CCS Today
• All major components of a carbon capture and
sequestration system are commercially
available today.
• Today we operate at a million ton (Mt) scale
• In order to have a significant impact on climate
change, we need to operate at the billion tonne
(Gt) per year level
• This implies that 100s and eventually1000s of
CCS facilities will need to capture and store
their CO2
Howard Herzog / MIT Energy Initiative
Large-Scale CCS Projects
• There are 7 large-scale (>1 Mt/yr) operating
CCS projects worldwide (none at power
plants)
• There are several projects currently under
construction (two at power plants)
• While dozens of projects have been announced
over the past decade, large-scale CCS projects
are extremely difficult to develop and we are
seeing many cancellations worldwide.
Howard Herzog / MIT Energy Initiative
Project Economics - SCPC
SCPC plant with & w/o CCS
200
180
160
12
140
6
CoE (in $/MWh)
10
120
31
100
80
1
1
155
60
94
40
70
20
0
CoE
Grant
PTC
No TS&M
EOR
Change D:E Lower Rate CoE (after)
of Debt
From: Raveendran, S.P., "The Role of CCS as a Mitigation Technology and
Challenges to its Commercialization," M.I.T. Masters Thesis, May (2013).
CoE w/o
CCS Costs
• For an Nth plant
 $50-$100/tCO2 avoided for power plant sources
 ~75% increase in COE
Howard Herzog / MIT Energy Initiative
CCS Technology Development
• There are many pathways that can lower
CCS costs
• It will always cost more to capture than not
capture
• CCS development (similar to all large
energy system development) is expensive
• While R&D support is important, creating
markets for CCS is essential
Howard Herzog / MIT Energy Initiative
Contact Information
Howard Herzog
Senior Research Engineer
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
(MIT)
Energy Initiative
Room E19-370L
Cambridge, MA 02139
Phone: 617-253-0688
E-mail: hjherzog@mit.edu
Web Site: sequestration.mit.edu
Howard Herzog / MIT Energy Initiative