CHINA 2050 HIGH RENEWABLE
ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO
AND RODAMAP STUDY
CHINA NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY CENTER
ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF NDRC
April 20, 2015
国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所
Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission
Partnership
Core Working Group:
Technical Support:
THE ACHIEVEMENT of “CHINA 2050 HIGH RE
PENETRATION SCENARIO” IS the KEY FACTOR for
OUR “BEAUTIFUL CHINA”
High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario
Economic Dreams
To get rid of fossil fuels is our
global
development trend.
生态文明是人类文明的重要标志
Ecological civilization is the
moral high ground of human
development.
Ecological Dreams
THE ACHIEVEMENT of “CHINA 2050 HIGH RE
PENETRATION SCENARIO” IS VISION AND
CONSENSUS OF THE WHOLE SOCIETY
Social Economic
—Middle Level of
Developed Country
Energy Strategy
—Low Carbon and Green
Electricity for Future
Ecological
Environment
—Blue Air and
Green Water
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
GDP：4b CNY
2013
2020
2030
2050
GDP：28.2b CNY，7
times the GDP in 2010
2010
ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT
The emission trends of various main air pollutants
7000
10k tons
6000
Pollutant Emissions
5000
Below the level of
emissions in 1980
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
CO2 Emissions
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2050
3b tons of annual
CO2 emissions, 2.17
tons of emissions
per capita
3.99t
SO2
NOx
smoke and dust
2500
2000
4.44t
1500
10k tons
1000
500
0
1990 2010
6.7
SO2
7.25
Power sector emissions
The level of global
average emissions
3.02
2010
2011
2050
CO2 Emissions (b tons)
1.4b tons in 2050,
3.2b tons in 2010
NOx
PM10
China
USA
PM2.5
EU
Atmo
Hg
MAIN CALCULATED RESULTS for HIGH
RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION in 2050
The rate of
electrification to be
higher than 60% in
end-use energy
consumption
3X
62%
16000
14000
12000
22%
90%
80%
70%
8000
50%
6000
40%
0
3.4b
100%
60%
2000
2050
Twh
10000
4000
2010
3.4billion tce of
primary energy
supply , and 3.2billion
tce of end-use energy
consumption
The proportion of
non-fossil energy
generation to be
higher than 91%
2.7b
30%
20%
10%
0%
2400GW of wind capacity ,
2600GW of solar power
capacity , and 9660TWh of total
annual power generation
2010
2050
HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION
SCENARIO: PARTHWAY
TEN CONLUSIONS OR
TEN THINKS？
BY 2050, RENEWABLE ENERGY COULD MEET MORE
THAN 60% OF PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND
2010
5.0
2020
2030
2040
2050
70%
Primary Energy Supply(billion tce, thermal equivalent ）
4.5
60%
4.0
50%
3.5
3.0
40%
2.5
30%
2.0
1.5
20%
1.0
10%
0.5
0
0%
Oil
Nature Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Biomass
Bio fuel
Solar Power
SWH & Geothermal
RE Share
Coal
HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION WILL
PROMOTE FOSSIL ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND
CARBON EMISSIONS TO PEAK BY 2025
12.0
Units : billion tons
10.0
8.5
7.8
8.0
9.2
9.2
8.2
6.5
6.0
3000
5.3
Reference
High penetration
4.1
Units: million tce
4.0
2500
2000
2.0
1500
0.0
3.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
1000
500
0
2005
2010
Electricity
Services
2015
2020
Coke
Residents
2025
2030
Chemical
Transport
2035
2040
2045
Manufacturing
Argriculture
2050
Metal
smelting
RENEWABLE POWER IS THE ESSENTIAL
REPLACEMENT FOR FOSSIL ENERY
16000
100%
TWh
88%
14000
82%
12000
57%
8000
0
50%
40%
30%
29%
22%
80%
60%
28%
4000
2000
67%
41%
34%
90%
70%
53%
46%
6000
86%
78%
71%
10000
84%
91%
20%
23%
10%
2011
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0%
COAL
NAT_GAS
FUELOIL
NUCLEAR
Hydro
WIND
SOLAR
MUNI_WASTE
BIOGAS
STRAW
WOOD
GEOTHERMAL
WAVE
RE share
Non-fossil energy Share
WIND POWER AND SOLAR POWER WILL BECOME
IMPORTANT PILLARS OF THE FUTURE POWER
SUPPLY
3000000
2040, 2204GW
2500000
2000000
2040, 2056GW
1500000
1000000
2020,307GW
500000
2020,174GW
0
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049
Wind
PV&CSP
Development Phase Diagram of Wind and Solar power in High Penetration Scenario
HIGHER ELECTRIFICATION RATE BRING
HUMAN SOCIETY INTO MORE HIGHER LEVEL
OF CIVILIZATION FORMATION
4.0
70%
Units: billion tce
62%
59%
3.5
60%
54%
51%
3.0
47%
50%
41%
2.5
37%
40%
33%
2.0
26%
30%
1.5
20%
1.0
10%
0.5
0
0%
2010
Coal
2015
Oil
products
2020
Nature
Gas
2025
2030
Electricity
consumption
2035
Bio fuel
2040
SWH
Geo thermal
2045
2050
Electrification share
TRANSFORM THE ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION
NETWORK TO A PLARTFORM FOR OPTIMIZING
RESCOURES ALLOCATION
Inter-provincial Transmission Capacity Demand in High Penetration Scenario（GW）
TECHNOLOGICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL
INNOVATION IS THE FOUNDATION BUILA A HIGH
RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION POWER SYSTEM
Hydro
power
RE
Wind
power
Flexible
generation
Thermal
power
Forecast
Power
Generation
Regulation
储能电站
Power System
Flexibility
Demand
Response
Ancillary
Services
Virtual data
center
PV
Wireless
charging
 Bidding at power market
Charging
Station
 Coordinate EVs with
smart vehicle network,
driverless cars and
wireless charging
technology
Power Market
Output
Regulation
Integration Operator
Driverless
EV
 Business model:
charging and
discharging services,
and shared EV services
 Recycle Battery，
provide energy storage
service to Grid
Smart
metering
Mobile Station
Driverless EV
国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所
Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission
EV
BUILDING A HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY
PENETRATION POWER SYSTEM AT A SMALL OR
NON-INCREMENTAL COST
Yuan/KWh
0.800
0.746
0.701
0.689
0.683
0.672
0.666
0.674
0.678
0.685
2011
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Transmission Cost
0.180
0.182
0.183
0.185
0.190
0.199
0.213
0.230
0.250
Start-up costs
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.005
0.005
0.005
Fuel Cost
0.276
0.259
0.262
0.233
0.186
0.143
0.111
0.094
0.080
Variable O&M
0.022
0.021
0.019
0.016
0.014
0.011
0.010
0.010
0.010
Fixed O&M
0.023
0.028
0.029
0.035
0.040
0.044
0.050
0.053
0.054
Capital Cost
0.244
0.212
0.196
0.212
0.240
0.266
0.285
0.285
0.287
0.700
0.600
0.500
0.400
0.300
0.200
0.100
0.000
kWh Cost Development Trend in High Penetration Scenario
AS A NEW ECONOMIC GROWTH POINT, RE CAN
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE DEVELOPMENT QUALITY
OF OVERALL ECONOMY
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Contribution of RE and
related industries to GDP
7.0%
6.2%
Energy Sector Employment in 2010
（unit: 1000）
0
Coal
Oil Gas Electricity
RE
Nuclear R&D
6.0%
5.0%
600
4.0%
2.9%
3.0%
481
2.5%
377
400
2.0%
1.0%
500
Growth of Employment in RE
and related industries （unit: 10000）
1.6%
200
0.0%
2010
Wind
250
300
0.9%
2020
Solar
2030
EV
2050
Other RE
2015
2050
125
65
100
46
81
15
36
13
0
Solar
Wind
Hydro Biomass Others
HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION
WILL HELP BRING BACK CLEAR WATER AND
BLUE SKIES
10.00
35%
Units: billion tons
9.00
30%
8.00
25%
7.00
6.00
20%
5.00
15%
4.00
30.0
Units: million tons
3.00
10%
2.00
25.0
1.00
20.0
0.00
5%
0%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
15.0
10.0
China
USA
EU
China Share of Global
2050 China's CO2 Emission in the Global Contrast in High Penetration Scenario
5.0
Note: China's data after 2010 is scenario data
And data of other countries is trend prediction
Data from IEA ETP 2014
0.0
1990 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
China SO2 Emission High Penetration Scenario
China Nox Emission High Penetration Scenario
2050 China's SO2 and NOX Emission in High Penetration Scenario
2050 HIGH PENETRATION SCENARIO:
PATHWAY
Largest Challenge:
Variability of
Renewables！
Achieve Higher-level Dynamic Stability
Through Changes: Internet +
Supply Side
Changes
Stability？
Reliability
？
Intelligence
Comm
Internet
Energy
Internet
Internet of
Things
Flexibility
Demand
Side
Also
Changes
System with High RE Penetration Will Be a
Reliable Power System
Demand side flexibility
Variable generation
Variable demand
Smart Control and realtime price
Flexible generation units
Contribution of EV’s Flexibility to the Power System
Types and Numbers
Vehicle
Technology
Charging Mode
Operation Features
Passenger V
EV
Low Voltage AC
Frequency of Charging
Bus/Business/Delivery
Plug-in
Trucks
Fuel Battery
DC
Changeable Battery
Wireless Charging
Miles
Time
EV Charging and Discharging Load
Daily miles
Integration
Charging Load Curves
Charging control and
Storage
New Business model of EV Will Change the
Concept of Power Dispatch
Fixed
Stations
Wireless
Charging
Wireless
Charging
Mobile
Stations
EV Integration
Operator
流动站点
退役电池
回收
EV Business Model and Integrated Operation of Power System
Energy Storage of EV
Case Study for 2030 in Beijing
880GW Flexible Coal Will Provide Support
for Stable and Reliable Operation of the
Power System in 2050
Hourly Dispatch on a Typical Day in High Penetration
Scenario
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
T001 T002 T003 T004 T005 T006 T007 T008 T009 T010 T011 T012 T013 T014 T015 T016 T017 T018 T019 T020 T021 T022 T023 T024
NUCLEAR
COAL
Hydro
NAT_GAS
WIND
WOOD
SOLAR
GEOTHERMAL
BIOGAS
STRAW
MUNI_WASTE
HEAT
WAVE
FUELOIL
PUMPED_HYDRO
ACTION PLAN FOR HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY
PENETRATION
BUILDING HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY
PENETRATION FUTURE WILL BRING “NONZERO-SUM”RESULTS
•
•
•
•
•
Market Oriented
Economically Viable
Consider both long term and near term
Soft and Hard Supports
Benefit the Whole Society
KEY ELEMENTS of THE ACTION PLANS
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
Extract potential of grid,
strengthen infrastructure of
provincial distribution network,
especially 500KV interconnection
Technology lines for large wind and solar
Revolution bases
Technology Innovation: Significantly increase
electrification rate in end-use consumptions, flexible
coal（target: 1000 hours）, modernized manufacture
and 3-Networks Integration
EV Industrialized，EV become
pillar of vehicle industry or even
of the national economy by 2025
Enter the era of Energy Internet by 2025: efficiently
integrate EV, smart network, and Demand Response;
annual installation of wind and solar power each hit
100GW
，Power Sector Reform ongoing in
parallel with 13th FYP implementation;
Building a competitive power market
Institutional
in China within 10 years
Reform
Reform of State Owned Enterprises：
Improve Market Mechanism and
break monopoly
International Energy transformation of Germany（Learn and Cooperate）、Denmark concepts to phase
Cooperation out fossil energy
Global energy governance is a trend，and conformed with Pareto Standard. Only
cooperation will lead to win-win!
Do not ever think about that we can escape, our every
each step determine the final outcome, our foot steps
are moving towards the end of own chosen target.
──Milan Kundera