February 26, 2015
KEVIN C. GILLEN, Ph.D.
Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Disclaimers and Acknowledgments: The Lindy Institute for Urban Innovation at Drexel University provides this report free of charge to the public. The
report is produced by Lindy Senior Research Fellow Kevin Gillen, in association with Meyers Research LLC. The author thanks Azavea.com, the
Philadelphia Office of Property Assessment, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Case-Shiller MacroMarkets LLC, RealtyTrac, Zillow.com, Trulia.com
and the NAHB for making their data publicly available.
© 2015, Drexel University and Meyers Research LLC, All Rights Reserved.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
House Price Indices 1980-2014: 1980Q1=100
New Jersey Shore v. New Jersey and U.S. Average
700.0
600.0
U.S. Avg.**
NJ**
500.0
NJ Shore*
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
Q4
0.0
*Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D.
**Empirically estimated by FHFA.gov
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Total House Price Appreciation Rates
by Geographic Market
Period
Jersey Shore*
New Jersey**
U.S.A.**
35-Year
152.2%
160.3%
126.2%
10-Year
-9.8%
-0.1%
9.4%
1-Year
1.9%
1.9%
4.4%
1-Quarter
-0.2%
-0.2%
0.9%
*Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen Ph.D.
**Source: U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). These numbers are through
2014Q3 only.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
New Jersey Shore House Price Indices, by Community
1980-2014, 1980Q1=100
900
Brigantine
800
Atlantic City
Ventnor
700
Margate
Longport
600
Somers Point
Ocean City
Sea Isle City/Strathmere
500
Avalon/Stone Harbor
Wildwood
400
Cape May
300
200
100
Q4
0
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Jersey Shore House Price Appreciation Rates by Community
Sea Isle
City/ Avalon/
Somers Ocean Strath Stone
Ventnor Margate Longport Point
City mere Harbor Wildwood Cape May
Period
Brigantine
Atlantic
City
35-year
116.8%
67.4%
96.8%
173.6%
150.1%
10-year
-25.1%
-86.4%
-42.1%
6.6%
1-Year
-0.2%
-34.8%
7.6%
1-Quarter
-0.5%
1.7%
-4.3%
143.0% 178.7% 145.1% 169.8%
177.7%
174.7%
-6.9%
-27.1%
-1.7%
-4.4%
20.5%
-12.7%
3.0%
7.8%
-0.1%
-4.7%
1.6%
16.4%
0.0%
-10.8%
40.5%
2.9%
-2.4%
-1.2%
0.8%
-0.6%
0.6%
-0.2%
0.8%
This table gives the total % change in house prices by community,
through 2014 Q4, starting from different starting points in time.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Median House Price by Shore Community: 1980-2014
$1,400,000
Brigantine
$1,200,000
Atlantic City
Ventnor
$1,000,000
Margate
Longport
Somers Point
$800,000
Ocean City
Sea Isle City/Strathmere
$600,000
Avalon/Stone Harbor
Wildwood
Cape May
$400,000
$200,000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
$0
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Number of Jersey Shore House Sales per Quarter: 2006-2014
1000
Q1
900
Q2
Q3
800
Q4
700
Qtly Avg
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2006
2007
2008
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Number of Jersey Shore House Sales with Price>=$1m
100
Q1
90
80
70
Q2
Q3
Q4
60
Qtly Avg
50
40
30
20
10
0
2006
2007
2008
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Percent of Jersey Shore House Sales that are "New"*
2006-2014
45.0%
*A "New" home is defined as one
that is less than ten years old.
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2014
2014
2014
2014
2013
2013
2013
2013
2012
2012
2012
2012
2011
2011
2011
2011
2010
2010
2010
2010
2009
2009
2009
2009
2008
2008
2008
2008
2007
2007
2007
2007
2006
2006
2006
0.0%
Jersey Shore House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Brigantine House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Atlantic City House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Ventnor, Margate and Longport House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Somers Point House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Ocean City House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Sea Isle City/Strathmere House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Avalon/Stone Harbor House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Wildwood House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Cape May House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2014 Q4 House Price Rate of Change by Community
Atlantic City: +1.7%
North
Somers Point: -1.2%
N.J.
Ventnor: -4.3%
Margate: +2.9%
Longport: -2.4%
Ocean City: +0.8%
Sea Isle City/Strathmere: -0.6%
Brigantine: -0.5%
Wildwood: -0.2%
Avalon/Stone Harbor: +0.6%
Cape May: +0.8%
Note: Each community is extruded by its average change in house values during 2014 Q4
in order to reflect its growth (or depreciation) rate relative to other communities.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
+$1 Million Dollar House Sales in 2014 Q4
This map shows the location of homes that
sold for 1 million dollars or more in 2014 Q4.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Jersey Shore Houses Listed For Sale: Inventory v. Sales Rate
4,500
9%
4,000
8%
3,500
7%
3,000
6%
2,500
5%
2,000
4%
1,500
3%
1,000
2%
500
1%
0
0%
2007 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
%Sold = (#Sales/#Listings)
# Homes Listed "For Sale"
# Houses Listed For Sale
% Absorbed
Jersey Shore Condos Listed For Sale: Inventory v. Sales Rate
3,000
8%
# Condos Listed For Sale
% Absorbed
2,500
6%
2,000
5%
1,500
4%
3%
1,000
2%
500
1%
0
0%
2007 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
%Sold = (#Sales/#Listings)
# Homes Listed "For Sale"
7%
Months' Supply of Inventory: Houses v. Condos
45
HOUSES
40
CONDOS
Months' Supply of Inventory is the
number of months it would take to
completely sell of the current
number of dwellings listed "For Sale",
given the current pace of sales.
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2007 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
House Prices % Below Previous Peak
0.00%
-6%
-20.00%
-10%
-12%
-15%
-18%
-18%
-20%
-20%
-26%
-27%
-32%
-40.00%
-46%
-48%
-60.00%
-62%
-80.00%
-100.00%
-120.00%
This chart shows the total decline, to date, in the average house
price in each geographic market since their peak during the
housing bubble in the previous decade. The average declines for
the U.S. and N.J. are provided courtesy FHFA. Declines for all
other markets are empirically computed by Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D.
-140.00%
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
-114%