This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike License. Your use of this
material constitutes acceptance of that license and the conditions of use of materials on this site.
Copyright 2009, The Johns Hopkins University and Nan Astone. All rights reserved. Use of these materials
permitted only in accordance with license rights granted. Materials provided “AS IS”; no representations or
warranties provided. User assumes all responsibility for use, and all liability related thereto, and must independently
review all materials for accuracy and efficacy. May contain materials owned by others. User is responsible for
obtaining permissions for use from third parties as needed.
Urban Demography
Nan Astone, PhD
Johns Hopkins University
Objectives of This Lecture
„
„
„
Define main measures used by urban demographers
Examine global trends
Consider recent research by demographers concerned with urban
health
3
Section A
Definitions and Trends
Urban Population Is Growing
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2006). World
Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/200.
5
Urban or City Population
„
„
Population of urban areas within countries
Common metric for categorizing cities
− 10 million or more (megacities)
− 5–10 million
− 1–5 million
− 500,000 to 1 million
− Less than 500,000
6
City Size by Region and Year
7
Megacities over Time
„
1950 (2)
1. New York–Newark
2. Tokyo
„
1975 (3)
1. Tokyo
2. New York–Newark
3. Mexico City
8
Megacities over Time
„
2000
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
(18)
Tokyo
Mexico City
New York–Newark
São Paulo
Mumbai
Shanghai
Calcutta
Delhi
Buenos Aires
LA–Long Beach–Santa Ana
Osaka
Jakarta
Rio de Janeiro
Cairo
Dhaka
Moscow
Karachi
Manila
„
2005
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
(20)
Tokyo
Mexico City
New York–Newark
São Paulo
Mumbai
Delhi
Shanghai
Calcutta
Jakarta
Buenos Aires
Dhaka
LA–Long Beach–Santa Ana
Karachi
Rio de Janeiro
Osaka
Cairo
Lagos
Beijing
Manila
Moscow
9
Urbanization
„
„
Characteristic of a nation or region
Percent of a population (e.g., a country) that lives in urban areas
10
World Urbanization
„
Percentage of the population living in urban areas, 2005
Map source: United Nations.
11
Urbanization by Region
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2006). World Urbanization
Prospects: The 2005 Revision. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/200.
12
Urban Growth
„
„
Characteristic of a city or of a number of cities aggregated together
Growth rate of the urban population
13
Worldwide Urban Growth
„
Average annual rate of change of the urban population, 2000–2005
Map source: United Nations.
14
Urban Growth in the Six Biggest Cities (as of 2005)
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2006). World Urbanization
Prospects: The 2005 Revision. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/200.
15
Section B
Health and the City
Recent Research
„
Recent research by urban demographers interested in health
− NRC reading
− Cities Transformed
X Huge volume devoted to urban demography
X Two chapters on health
17
Is City Life Good for Your Health?
„
Chapter 7: “Mortality and Morbidity: Is City Life Good for Your
Health?”
− What is “urban health”?
− Are urban/rural health differentials a matter of kind (totally
different health profiles) or degree (levels of cause-specific
morbidity and mortality)?
− Are the determinants of health different for city dwellers than
for rural dwellers, or are the levels of universal determinants of
health simply different for urban and rural dwellers?
18
Unique Determinants of Urban Health
„
„
„
„
„
„
„
Dependence on cash
Informal social networks are weaker
Higher levels of parental participation in the formal sector
Higher intake of fat and sweets/lower levels of physical activity
Sanitation
Environmental toxins
Limits on social mobility
19
Unique Determinants of Urban Health
„
„
„
„
„
„
„
Dependence on cash
Informal social networks are weaker
Higher levels of parental participation in the formal sector
Higher intake of fat and sweets/lower levels of physical activity
Sanitation
Environmental toxins
Limits on social mobility
20
Unique Determinants of Urban Health
„
„
„
„
„
„
„
Dependence on cash
Informal social networks are weaker
Higher levels of parental participation in the formal sector
Higher intake of fat and sweets/lower levels of physical activity
Sanitation
Environmental toxins
Limits on social mobility
21
Unique Determinants of Urban Health
„
„
„
„
„
„
„
Dependence on cash
Informal social networks are weaker
Higher levels of parental participation in the formal sector
Higher intake of fat and sweets/lower levels of physical activity
Sanitation
Environmental toxins
Limits on social mobility
22
Unique Determinants of Urban Health
„
„
„
„
„
„
„
Dependence on cash
Informal social networks are weaker
Higher levels of parental participation in the formal sector
Higher intake of fat and sweets/lower levels of physical activity
Sanitation
Environmental toxins
Limits on social mobility
23
Unique Determinants of Urban Health
„
„
„
„
„
„
„
Dependence on cash
Informal social networks are weaker
Higher levels of parental participation in the formal sector
Higher intake of fat and sweets/lower levels of physical activity
Sanitation
Environmental toxins
Limits on social mobility
24
Unique Determinants of Urban Health
„
„
„
„
„
„
„
Dependence on cash
Informal social networks are weaker
Higher levels of parental participation in the formal sector
Higher intake of fat and sweets/lower levels of physical activity
Sanitation
Environmental toxins
Limits on social mobility
25
Unique Determinants of Urban Health
„
„
„
„
„
„
„
Dependence on cash
Informal social networks are weaker
Higher levels of parental participation in the formal sector
Higher intake of fat and sweets/lower levels of physical activity
Sanitation
Environmental toxins
Limits on social mobility
26
Particular Issues
„
„
„
„
Injuries
Mental health
Emerging chronic disease
New infectious disease (HIV/AIDS)
27
The Urban Penalty
„
„
„
„
In historical Europe, morbidity and mortality were much higher in
cities, despite the fact that urban dwellers (as individuals) were
richer
Over time, the rural advantage eroded because …
− Investments in infrastructure
− NGO action leading to political will
− Knowledge
− Income
Contemporary LDCs did not have an urban penalty because of
knowledge
Question: Is an urban penalty emerging?
28
Urban Child Health
„
„
„
„
„
Urban residence is associated with child survival, and city size does
not matter
Urban poor children have much lower survival than urban non-poor
children, and sometimes have lower survival than rural children
(still a minority)
Less stunting in urban areas, and, generally, city size doesn’t matter
(except in Latin America)
Wasting is less clear, although urban children generally fare better
No “clear and compelling” evidence of urban penalty emerging, but
area where much research is needed
29
Urban Child Health
„
„
„
„
„
Urban residence is associated with child survival, and city size does
not matter
Urban poor children have much lower survival than urban non-poor
children, and sometimes have lower survival than rural children
(still a minority)
Less stunting in urban areas, and, generally, city size doesn’t matter
(except in Latin America)
Wasting is less clear, although urban children generally fare better
No “clear and compelling” evidence of urban penalty emerging, but
area where much research is needed
30
Section C
Residential Segregation in Urban Areas
Objectives of This Lecture
„
At the end of this lecture and the accompanying readings a student
will be able to:
− Define residential segregation
− Identify the five usual measures of residential segregation
− Describe recent trends in residential segregation by ethnicity in
the U.S.
− Identify areas of public health research where the concept of
residential segregation might be useful
32
Residential Segregation
„
Tendency for groups to cluster geographically in cities and
metropolitan areas
− Ethnicity
− Social class
33
Originally Studied by Immigration Scholars
„
„
For the first half of the twentieth century, immigrant groups were
residentially segregated in the U.S.
Major hypothesis: residential segregation of immigrants is in large
part due to …
− Concentration in particular occupations
− Poverty and low socioeconomic status
− Ability to participate in cultural organizations
− Discrimination
34
Process of Assimilation
„
„
As immigrants and their children …
− Shift cultural orientations
− Expand into different occupations
− Get richer
… Segregation will lesson substantially, but not completely
disappear
35
How to Measure Residential Segregation
„
Requires some sub-unit into which cities or metropolitan areas can
be divided
− U.S. census tract
36
How to Measure Residential Segregation
„
Five dimensions
− Evenness
− Exposure
− Clustering
− Concentration
− Centralization
37
Evenness
„
„
The degree to which groups (e.g., ethnic groups) are evenly spread
across the city
“How many people would have to move in order to make each
census tract have the same distribution as the city as a whole?”
38
Evenness in “Selected” Metropolitan Areas
„
Evenness in “selected” metropolitan areas by year and ethnicity
(European American comparison)
39
Exposure
„
Inverse of the probability that a person of one ethnic group shares a
census tract with a person of a particular other ethnic group
40
Exposure in “Selected” Metropolitan Areas
„
Exposure in “selected” metropolitan areas by year and ethnicity
(European American comparison)
41
Clustering
„
The degree to which census tracts with a large percentage of a
particular ethnic group are contiguous
42
Clustering in “Selected” Metropolitan Areas
„
Clustering in “selected” metropolitan areas by year and ethnicity
(European American comparison)
43
Centralization
„
Closeness of the census tracts with a large percentage of a
particular ethnic group to the central business district of the city
44
Centralization in “Selected” Metropolitan Areas
„
Centralization in “selected” metropolitan areas by year and
ethnicity (European American comparison)
45
Concentration
„
The proportion of geographic space occupied by census tracts with a
large percentage of a particular ethnic group
46
Concentration in “Selected” Metropolitan Areas
„
Concentration in “selected” metropolitan areas by year and
ethnicity (European American comparison)
47
Basic Trends
„
„
African Americans down a little bit on every measure
All others stable or up, somewhat different for different measures
48
Ethnic Differences Now
49
Can Measure Segregation by Social Class or Income
„
Relatively little research on this, compared to ethnicity
− What studies there are show that social class segregation has
increased a little over the last part of the 20th century
− In particular, has increased among ethnic minorities
50
Spatial Concentration of Poverty
„
„
Combination of unrelenting ethnic segregation and slightly
increasing social class segregation
Neighborhoods in many American cities where a very large majority
of the population is poor
− Neighborhood effects on health
51
Residential Segregation in Public Health Research
„
„
Very prominent theme in recent public health research
Very old models
− Only use evenness
X Think about a city that was completely even, which was 80
percent African American (that is, all tracts are also 80
percent African American and 20 percent non-African
American)
X Now think about a city that is (overall) 50 percent African
American and that is somewhat uneven
X Could the exposure measure of segregation be higher in
the “more segregated” city than the “less segregated”
city?
52