(c) crown copyright
Catalogue Reference:CAB/129/9
Image Reference:0036
THIS DOCUMENT IS T H E PROPERTY OF HIE BRITANNIC MAJE8TY'S GOYRRNMBNT
Printed
for
the Cabinet.
May
The cit-cuSatiofi of this paper has foees? sirwilf
1946.
limited,
i t is issued
for t h e p e r s o n a ! use of
TOP SECRET.
Copy No.
C P . ( 4 6 ) 186.
3rd May,
1946.
CABINET.
POLICY TOWARDS
GERMANY.
M E M O R A N D U M B Y T H E S E C R E T A R Y OF S T A T E F O R F O R E I G N
AFFAIRS.
T H E a t t a c h e d p a p e r sets o u t some of t h e p r o b l e m s f a c i n g us i n G e r m a n y ,
w i t h p a r t i c u l a r r e f e r e n c e t o t h e q u e s t i o n w h e t h e r w e s h o u l d c o n t i n u e to w o r k
t o w a r d s a unified ( t h o u g h f e d e r a l i s e d ) G e r m a n y or w h e t h e r , in v i e w of t h e
R u s s i a n a t t i t u d e a n d t h e d a n g e r of C o m m u n i s t d o m i n a t i o n of W e s t e r n G e r m a n y ,
w e s h o u l d r e g a r d t h i s as d a n g e r o u s a n d w o r k t o w a r d s a W e s t e r n G e r m a n S t a t e
o r S t a t e s w h i c h w o u l d be m o r e a m e n a b l e to o u r influence. O u r p r e s e n t policy i n
o u r o w n Z o n e is c o m p a t i b l e w i t h a n e v e n t u a l G e r m a n f e d e r a t i o n w i t h r e g i o n a l
units h a v i n g w i d e autonomous powers co-ordinated in certain restricted m a t t e r s
by a f e d e r a l b o d y a t t h e c e n t r e . I s h a l l be g r a t e f u l for a n e x p r e s s i o n of t h e v i e w s
of m y colleagues o n t h e q u e s t i o n s r a i s e d i n t h i s p a p e r . M y o w n f e e l i n g s a t p r e s e n t
a r e t h a t t h e g e n e r a l d a n g e r s of s p l i t t i n g G e r m a n y n o w a r e g r e a t e r t h a n t h o s e of
c o n t i n u i n g o u r p r e s e n t policy a n d t h a t w e c a n h o p e t o a v o i d m a n y of t h e d a n g e r s
of c e n t r a l i s a t i o n by i n s i s t i n g o n p o l i t i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t a l o n g f e d e r a l l i n e s .
I t is very l i k e l y t h a t I s h a l l h a v e t o d e a l a t t h e p r e s e n t C o n f e r e n c e i n P a r i s
w i t h some of t h e s e g e n e r a l G e r m a n q u e s t i o n s . T h e F r e n c h G o v e r n m e n t a r e v e r y
keen o n t h e i d e a of f e d e r a l i s a t i o n , w h i l e t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s G o v e r n m e n t h a v e
h i t h e r t o s t r o n g l y a d v o c a t e d t h e i m m e d i a t e i n t r o d u c t i o n of c e r t a i n c e n t r a l
a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s . I w o u l d p r o p o s e t h a t w h e n i t became n e c e s s a r y t o d i s c u s s t h e s e
q u e s t i o n s h e r e I s h o u l d t a k e r o u g h l y t h e f o l l o w i n g l i n e :—
1
" T h e objective to be a i m e d a t by all f o u r O c c u p y i n g P o w e r s i n g u i d i n g
c o n s t i t u t i o n a l a n d a d m i n i s t r a t i o n d e v e l o p m e n t s i n G e r m a n y s h o u l d be a
decentralised federal structure based on regional u n i t s w i t h considerable
a u t o n o m o u s p o w e r s . W h e n i t is a g r e e d b e t w e e n t h e F o u r P o w e r s t h a t t h e
t i m e h a s come to set u p a c e n t r a l G e r m a n G o v e r n m e n t , t h e y w i l l c o n s u l t
t o g e t h e r a g a i n a s t o t h e m e a n s of d o i n g t h i s , b u t t h e c e n t r a l g o v e r n m e n t w i l l
i n no c i r c u m s t a n c e s be given s u c h p o w e r s a s w o u l d r e s t r i c t t h e a u t o n o m o u s
. s t a t u s already given to the regional units.
M e a n w h i l e , t h e r e w i l l be no
o b j e c t i o n of p r i n c i p l e to t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of s u c h G e r m a n c e n t r a l a d m i n i s ­
t r a t i o n s a s m a y be f o u n d absolutely e s s e n t i a l for t h e p u r p o s e of t r e a t i n g
G e r m a n y a s a n economic whole.
T h e c e n t r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s s h o u l d be
r e s t r i c t e d t o c o - o r d i n a t i n g t h e a c t i v i t i e s of t h e r e g i o n a l u n i t s . T h e y s h o u l d
a c t t h r o u g h t h e local G e r m a n g o v e r n m e n t s a n d t h e i r a c t i v i t i e s i n e a c h Z o n e
w o u l d be s u b j e c t t o t h e control of t h e r e s p e c t i v e Zone c o m m a n d e r s .
If the
F o u r P o w e r s a g r e e d on p r i n c i p l e s of t h i s n a t u r e t h e d e t a i l e d a p p l i c a t i o n of
t h e m w o u l d b e r e f e r r e d for s t u d y to t h e A l l i e d C o n t r o l C o m m i s s i o n i n
Berlin."
I t seems t h a t a p r o p o s a l on these l i n e s m i g h t go some w a y t o w a r d s r e c o n c i l i n g
the F r e n c h a n d A m e r i c a n p o i n t s of v i e w a n d w o u l d n o t a l t o g e t h e r e x c l u d e t h e
p o s s i b i l i t y of s p l i t t i n g G e r m a n y i n t o t w o p a r t s if, o w i n g t o R u s s i a n non­
co-operation, t h i s l a t t e r became i n e v i t a b l e .
13303
[31768]
Policy t o w a r d s
Germany.
1. I c i r c u l a t e as a n A n n e x t o t h i s p a p e r a survey of t h e p r e s e n t s i t u a t i o n
in Germany. Its salient features a r e the following : ­
(a) Conditions
in
Germany.
T h o u g h ' a b e g i n n i n g "has b e e n ' m a d e w i t h r e c o n s t r u c t i o n , n e v e r t h e l e s s
p r a c t i c a l l y every G e r m a n t o w n is s t i l l i n r u i n s ; c o m m u n i c a t i o n s are- f a r f r o m
fully r e s t o r e d ; i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n i n t h e w e s t e r n zones is a t a b o u t 15 p e r cent,
of p r e - w a r ; t h e r e is a g r i e v o u s s h o r t a g e of food a n d coal; t h e p o p u l a t i o n is
swollen, by forced i m m i g r a t i o n f r o m t h e e a s t . P o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s a n d t r a d e u n i o n s
a r e e m e r g i n g , a f t e r a n i n i t i a l p e r i o d of p o l i t i c a l a p a t h y .
The Communists
h a v e c a p t u r e d t h e east. T h o u g h t h e y a r e a c t i v e a n d well o r g a n i s e d in t h e west,
t h e y are, a s yet, o n l y a m i n o r i t y .
(b) Potsdam
Agreement.
T h e P o t s d a m A g r e e m e n t set o u t d r a s t i c p r i n c i p l e s for t h e d e s t r u c t i o n of
German m i l i t a r i s m a n d N a t i o n a l Socialism. I t removed from G e r m a n y a n a r e a
i n t h e e a s t a m o u n t i n g t o a b o u t a fifth of t h e p r e - w a r t e r r i t o r y .
It provided
for p a y m e n t of r e p a r a t i o n b y t h e r e m o v a l of G e r m a n y ' s i n d u s t r i a l e q u i p m e n t
to a p o i n t w h i c h w o u l d leave h e r s t a n d a r d of l i v i n g n o t h i g h e r t h a n t h e a v e r a g e
E u r o p e a n s t a n d a r d . T h e p l a n s u b s e q u e n t l y a g r e e d for t h i s p u r p o s e w i l l r e d u c e
t h e g e n e r a l level of i n d u s t r y to a b o u t h a l f t h a t of 1938, a n d r e d u c e t h e h e a v y
i n d u s t r i e s to a b o u t a t h i r d . P o t s d a m p o s t u l a t e d p o l i t i c a l d e c e n t r a l i s a t i o n a n d
economic u n i t y . G e r m a n y w a s t o b e t r e a t e d a s a n economic w h o l e a n d c e n t r a l
G e r m a n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s w e r e to be e s t a b l i s h e d to d e a l w i t h economic m a t t e r s ,
b u t for t h e t i m e b e i n g no c e n t r a l G e r m a n g o v e r n m e n t w o u l d b e e s t a b l i s h e d .
W h e n a c c e p t i n g t h e level of i n d u s t r y p l a n s u b s e q u e n t l y d r a w n u p b y t h e C o n t r o l
Commission, t h e B r i t i s h r e p r e s e n t a t i v e m a d e t h e r e s e r v a t i o n t h a t i t w o u l d need
to be r e c o n s i d e r e d if t h e a s s u m p t i o n s o n w h i c h i t w a s b a s e d w e r e n o t fulfilled.
O n e of these a s s u m p t i o n s w a s t h a t G e r m a n y w o u l d be t r e a t e d a s a n economic
whole.
(c) Allied
administration.
T h e c e n t r a l G e r m a n economic a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s h a v e n o t y e t been set u p ,
nor is G e r m a n y b e i n g t r e a t e d a s a n economic w h o l e . E o u r - P o w e r g o v e r n m e n t
a t t h e c e n t r e is b e g i n n i n g t o c r e a k a n d t h e b u r d e n of g o v e r n m e n t to flow to t h e
zones w h i c h a r e t e n d i n g to become q u a s i - i n d e p e n d e n t .
(d) Russian
attitude.
T h r e e m a i n e l e m e n t s m a y b e seen i n S o v i e t p o l i c y :—
(i) to p r e v e n t a t a l l costs t h e r e v i v a l of a s t r o n g a n d i n d e p e n d e n t G e r m a n y ;
(ii) to p r e v e n t w e s t e r n G e r m a n y w i t h t h e R u h r , or even t h e R u h r alone,
b e i n g b r o u g h t i n t o a n y close g r o u p i n g of t h e w e s t e r n d e m o c r a c i e s ;
(iii) to e n s u r e t h a t G e r m a n y e v e n t u a l l y looks' e a s t a n d r e m a i n s u n d e r s t r o n g ,
a n d if possible exclusive, R u s s i a n influence.
T h e R u s s i a n s h a v e not y e t c o m e d o w n in f a v o u r e i t h e r of a u n i t a r y G e r m a n y
or a z o n a l G e r m a n y .
T h e y a r e , a t p r e s e n t , h e d g i n g a n d m a k i n g t h e best of
b o t h w o r l d s . T h e y h a v e e s t a b l i s h e d themselves s e c u r e l y i n t h e i r o w n zone, a r e
m a k i n g a s t r o n g b i d t o c a p t u r e B e r l i n for t h e C o m m u n i s t s , a n d a r e p r e p a r i n g
t o l a u n c h o u t o n a m o r e f o r w a r d p o l i c y in t h e w e s t .
(e) The British
zone.
T h e e c o n o m i c difficulties f a l l m o s t h a r d l y on t h e B r i t i s h zone w h i c h is m o s t l y
a n i n d u s t r i a l a r e a a n d n e v e r s e l f - s u p p o r t i n g i n food.. T h e i n d u s t r i e s a r e b r o k e n
a n d food i m p o r t s h a r d t o come by. T h e cost t h i s y e a r to t h e B r i t i s h E x c h e q u e r
will a m o u n t t o at least £ 8 0 millions net. W e are creating G e r m a n authorities
to t a k e over r e s p o n s i b i l i t y for t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n a n d e n d e a v o u r i n g t o b u i l d
u p d e m o c r a c y f r o m t h e b o t t o m . I t is p r o p o s e d t o hold b o r o u g h e l e c t i o n s t h i s
a u t u m n a n d p l a n s h a v e been l a i d for t h e h o l d i n g of o t h e r e l e c t i o n s u p t o t h e
p r o v i n c e level i n t h e course of t h e n e x t y e a r .
T h e s e d e v e l o p m e n t s w o u l d be
c o m p a t i b l e w i t h t h e e v e n t u a l i n t r o d u c t i o n of a f e d e r a l system for t h e w h o l e of
Germany.
W h a t e v e r t h e speed of t h e s e c o n s t i t u t i o n a l d e v e l o p m e n t s m a y be,
however, b o t h o u r t r o o p s of o c c u p a t i o n a n d our M i l i t a r y G o v e r n m e n t p e r s o n n e l
w i l l b e g r e a t l y r e d u c e d b y t h e e n d of t h i s y e a r .
2. U p t i l l r e c e n t m o n t h s w e h a v e t h o u g h t of t h e G e r m a n p r o b l e m solely i n
t e r m s of G e r m a n y itself, o u r p u r p o s e h a v i n g been to d e v i s e t h e best m e a n s of p r e ­
v e n t i n g t h e r e v i v a l of a s t r o n g a g g r e s s i v e G e r m a n y . A t t i m e s t h e e m p h a s i s h a s
been o n r e - e d u c a t i o n , t h o u g h u s u a l l y on c o n t r o l s a n d m e a s u r e s of s e c u r i t y . T h i s
p u r p o s e can c l e a r l y n o t be d i s c a r d e d ! I t is one w h i c h w e h a v e i n c o m m o n w i t h t h e Russians.
B u t i t can n o l o n g e r be r e g a r d e d a s o u r sole p u r p o s e , or, i n d e e d ,
p e r h a p s a s o u r p r i m a r y one. F o r t h e d a n g e r of R u s s i a h a s become c e r t a i n l y a s
g r e a t as, a n d p o s s i b l y even g r e a t e r t h a n , t h a t of a r e v i v e d G e r m a n y . T h e w o r s t
s i t u a t i o n of all w o u l d be a r e v i v e d G e r m a n y i n l e a g u e w i t h o r d o m i n a t e d by
R u s s i a . T h i s , of course, g r e a t l y c o m p l i c a t e s a n a l r e a d y c o m p l i c a t e d p r o b l e m . I t
involves a v o i d i n g m e a s u r e s w h i c h w o u l d p e r m a n e n t l y a l i e n a t e t h e G e r m a n s a n d
d r i v e t h e m i n t o t h e a r m s of R u s s i a . I t involves a g a i n s h o w i n g sufficient p u r p o s e
n o t t o . l e t i t a p p e a r t h a t R u s s i a , w h e n i t comes to t h e p o i n t , a l w a y s g e t s h e r w a y i n
f o u r - P o w e r d i s c u s s i o n s a b o u t G e r m a n y . I t involves s h o w i n g o u r s e l v e s to be n o
less c o n s t r u c t i v e i n o u r a p p r o a c h t o t h e p r o b l e m s i n o u r zone t h a n t h e R u s s i a n s
l o u d l y p r o c l a i m t h e m s e l v e s t o be i n t h e i r s . A n d , above all, i t involves m a i n t a i n ­
i n g a sufficiently h i g h s t a n d a r d of l i v i n g i n w e s t e r n G e r m a n y t o p r e v e n t t h e
C o m m u n i s t s f r o m e x p l o i t i n g t o t h e i r a d v a n t a g e t h e economic h a r d s h i p s suffered
by t h e p o p u l a t i o n . A l l t h i s c a l l s n o t only for t h e h i g h e s t q u a l i t i e s of r e s o u r c e a n d
t e n a c i t y b u t also f o r a r e a d i n e s s t o u s e t h e n e c e s s a r y m a n - p o w e r a n d r e s o u r c e s to
uphold our purpose.
3. T h e C h a n c e l l o r of t h e E x c h e q u e r , i n b i s b u d g e t speech, p o i n t e d t o o u r
e x p e n d i t u r e of £ 8 0 m i l l i o n t h i s y e a r o n civil a d m i n i s t r a t i o n a n d o n food f o r t h e
G e r m a n s i n o u r zone, a n d d e s c r i b e d t h i s as in effect p a y i n g r e p a r a t i o n s to
Germany. This revelation has caused considerable consternation to the public,
a n d t h e first q u e s t i o n for d e c i s i o n is t h e r e f o r e w h e t h e r w e a r e t o g o on u s i n g o u r
m a n - p o w e r a n d r e s o u r c e s to u p h o l d o u r p o s i t i o n i n G e r m a n y or w h e t h e r w e a r e
p r e p a r e d t o see R u s s i a a b s o r b i n g w e s t e r n G e r m a n y a s she h a s a l r e a d y to a l l
p r a c t i c a l p u r p o s e s absorbed t h e east. I t s h o u l d be b o r n e i n m i n d t h a t R u s s i a c a n
absorb c o u n t r i e s w i t h o u t s p e n d i n g m o n e y on t h e m , b u t w e c a n n o t . T h e w e s t e r n
w a y of l i f e d e m a n d s a m i n i m u m of m a t e r i a l w e l l b e i n g .
4. A s a n o c c u p y i n g P o w e r w e m a i n t a i n o u r c l a i m to r e p a y m e n t a n d h a v e
b e t t e r o p p o r t u n i t y t o e n f o r c e i t . A t t h e s a m e t i m e i t is obviously e s s e n t i a l t o
consider e v e r y possible m e a n s of r e d u c i n g s u c h e x p e n d i t u r e t o t h e m i n i m u m .
W e m i g h t , f o r e x a m p l e , i n v i t e o u r w e s t e r n A l l i e s t o c o n t r i b u t e to t h e r e n o v a ­
tion of t h e R u h r coal i n d u s t r y on w h i c h t h e y so g r e a t l y d e p e n d . W e c a n i n s i s t
w i t h t h e R u s s i a n s t h a t G e r m a n y m u s t i n r e a l i t y be t r e a t e d as a n e c o n o m i c whole,
a n d t h a t t h e s u r p l u s e s i n t h e e a s t a r e u s e d f o r t h e benefit of t h e w h o l e c o u n t r y .
N e v e r t h e l e s s , h o w e v e r g r e a t o u r p e r s u a s i v e a b i l i t y a n d o u r efforts to develop
t h e p r o d u c t i o n of o u r zone, t h e r e is n o l i k e l i h o o d of i t s b e i n g s e l f - s u p p o r t i n g for
some t i m e , o r of our b e i n g able t o a v o i d t h e m a j o r p a r t of t h e b u r d e n of m e e t i n g
i t s deficiencies. N o t even t h e modification of t h e r e p a r a t i o n p l a n w o u l d ease
t h e i m m e d i a t e l i a b i l i t i e s , s i n c e for some y e a r s to come t h e r e i s no p o s s i b i l i t y
of i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y r i s i n g to t h e p e r m i t t e d level.
5. I t i s easy to o v e r - s i m p l i f y t h i s issue a n d r e g a r d i t a s o n e b e t w e e n con­
t i n u i n g o u r o c c u p a t i o n a n d c o n t r o l w i t h all t h e e x p e n s e t h a t is i n v o l v e d in t h a t
r e s p o n s i b i l i t y a n d w i t h d r a w i n g f r o m G e r m a n y a n d so s a v i n g o u r p o c k e t s . B u t
even if w e w e r e t o e v a c u a t e G e r m a n y c o m p l e t e l y , w e should h a r d l y be p r e p a r e d
t o see t h e c o u n t r y r o t t i n g i n s t a r v a t i o n . D i s e a s e k n o w s no f r o n t i e r . B y w i t h ­
d r a w i n g f r o m G e r m a n y w e could n o d o u b t save o u r s e l v e s some e x p e n s e , b u t n o t
t h e w h o l e bill, a n d w e s h o u l d h a v e l i t t l e c o n t r o l over t h e m a n n e r i n w h i c h t h e
money w a s u s e d or w h a t t y p e of a u t h o r i t y i n G e r m a n y , e.g., N a z i or C o m m u n i s t ,
h a d t h e u s e of i t .
6. O n t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t w e a r e n o t p r e p a r e d to leave t h e field t o R u s s i a ,
the q u e s t i o n a r i s e s w h e t h e r w e s h o u l d be best a d v i s e d t o m a i n t a i n a n d develop
t h e p r e s e n t policy of P o t s d a m or to t h r o w ' it o v e r b o a r d a n d o r g a n i s e o u r o w n
zone a s a n i n d e p e n d e n t u n i t a c c o r d i n g t o o u r o w n i d e a s , b r i n g i n g i n t h e o t h e r
Avestern zones a s we c a n . T h e P o t s d a m A g r e e m e n t p r o v i d e s for t h e d e c e n t r a l i s a ­
t i o n of t h e G e r m a n p o l i t i c a l s t r u c t u r e b u t also for t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of c e n t r a l
G e r m a n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s f o r c e r t a i n economic p u r p o s e s . T h e A g r e e m e n t p r o v i d e s
t h a t n o c e n t r a l G e r m a n g o v e r n m e n t w i l l be e s t a b l i s h e d for t h e t i m e b e i n g , b u t
it m u s t be a s s u m e d t h a t t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of c e n t r a l economic a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s
w o u l d l o g i c a l l y lead i n d u e c o u r s e to t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of a c e n t r a l G o v e r n m e n t ,
[31768]
B 2
t h o u g h t h e p o w e r s of t h e l a t t e r m i g h t be c o n s i d e r a b l y l i m i t e d b y r e i n f o r c i n g the
a u t o n o m y of r e g i o n a l u n i t s i n some k i n d of f e d e r a l s t r u c t u r e . A l l i e d c o n t r o l
m a y c o n t i n u e i n some f o r m for m a n y y e a r s , b u t o n e c a n n o t e x p e c t t h e indefinite
p r o l o n g a t i o n of A l l i e d g o v e r n m e n t . T h e C o n t r o l M a c h i n e r y A g r e e m e n t o n w h i c h
i t is b a s e d w a s o n l y d e s i g n e d f o r t h e i n i t i a l p e r i o d of o c c u p a t i o n .
S o o n e r or
l a t e r t h e G e r m a n s w i l l h a v e t o g o v e r n themselves, w h e t h e r u n d e r a c e n t r a l g o v e r n ­
m e n t (albeit of a f e d e r a l c h a r a c t e r ) or s t a t e o r z o n a l g o v e r n m e n t s .
7. So f a r as o u r s h o r t - t e r m i n t e r e s t s a r e c o n c e r n e d t h e r e c a n be l i t t l e d o u b t
t h a t t h e y w o u l d be best served b y t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of c e n t r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s
w i t h o u t f u r t h e r delay. T h e y a r e e s s e n t i a l t o t h e t r e a t m e n t of G e r m a n y a s a n
economic whole, a n d t h e i r a b s e n c e g i v e s t h e R u s s i a n s a r e a d y e x c u s e for m a i n ­
t a i n i n g t h e i r zone a s a closed a r e a . A.s i t is a l a r g e r food p r o d u c i n g a r e a t h a n
w e s t e r n G e r m a n y , t h e b a r r i e r m a k e s for b e t t e r e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s i n t h e e a s t
t h a n in t h e w e s t , a t a n y r a t e so l o n g a s food s h o r t a g e s c o n t i n u e . I t i s of c o u r s e
i m p o s s i b l e t o feel a n y a s s u r a n c e t h a t , even if c e n t r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s w e r e set
up, the R u s s i a n s would w o r k the system honestly a n d would not merely t r y to
use t h e m to i n f i l t r a t e i n t o w e s t e r n G e r m a n y , w h i l e t a k i n g good c a r e t h a t tlhey
w e r e n o t used b y t h e w e s t e r n P o w e r s t o i n f i l t r a t e i n t o t h e e a s t . C o n s t a n t v i g i l a n c e
would h a v e t o be e x e r c i s e d to see t h a t t h e r e w a s c o m p l e t e r e c i p r o c i t y b e t w e e n
the R u s s i a n a n d t h e w e s t e r n zones i n c a r r y i n g o u t t h e p o l i c y of a u n i t a r y G e r m a n y .
B u t t h e e x i s t e n c e of c e n t r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s w o u l d a t l e a s t f o r t i f y o u r c l a i m ,
w h i c h w e c a n n o t a t p r e s e n t a s s e r t , to p e n e t r a t e t h e i r o n c u r t a i n economically, a n d
t o d r a w a n y s u r p l u s e s f r o m t h e e a s t i n t o t h e h a r d - s t r i c k e n w e s t e r n zones. A t
p r e s e n t t h e R u s s i a n s a r e u s i n g t h e i r zone n o t o n l y t o feed t h e R e d A r m y b u t
to send h o m e food-stuffs a n d m a n u f a c t u r e d g o o d s as r e p a r a t i o n .
8. B u t one c a n n o t t h i n k of t h e p r o b l e m solely i n t e r m s of i t s i m m e d i a t e
effects, s e e i n g t h a t c e n t r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s w o u l d l o g i c a l l y d e v e l o p i n d u e c o u r s e
into a c e n t r a l g o v e r n m e n t .
I t is t h e r e f o r e of i m p o r t a n c e t o e s t i m a t e i n w h i c h
d i r e c t i o n a c e n t r a l G e r m a n g o v e r n m e n t w o u l d be l i k e l y to t u r n , a t t h e s a m e
t i m e b e a r i n g i n m i n d t h a t even if w e s t e r n G e r m a n y w e r e set u p a s a s e p a r a t e
s t a t e , t h a t s t a t e m i g h t itself s u c c u m b t o t h e c o m m u n i s t p r e s s u r e w h i c h w o u l d
c e r t a i n l y be d i r e c t e d a g a i n s t i t . N o firm a n s w e r c a n be g i v e n on t h e p o s s i b l e
complexion of a c e n t r a l G e r m a n g o v e r n m e n t .
The Russians are probably as
d o u b t f u l a b o u t i t a s a r e w e ourselves. I f a c e n t r a l g o v e r n m e n t w e r e s e t u p
d u r i n g the p r e s e n t p e r i o d of A l l i e d o c c u p a t i o n a n d f o u r - P o w e r c o n t r o l , i t s
c o m p o s i t i o n w o u l d p r e s u m a b l y d e p e n d on. t h e r e s u l t of n a t i o n - w i d e e l e c t i o n s , con­
ducted u n d e r four-Power supervision. I t m a y be assumed t h a t the Communists,
or t h e n e w S o c i a l i s t U n i t y P a r t y , w o u l d g a i n t h e u p p e r h a n d i n t h e S o v i e t zone.
T h e s a m e is also p r o b a b l e , t h o u g h n o t so c e r t a i n , i n B e r l i n . A c c o r d i n g t o p r e s e n t
i n d i c a t i o n s i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s zone a n d i n r e g i o n s of N o r t h R h i n e a n d
W e s t p h a l i a of t h e B r i t i s h zone, t h e C h r i s t i a n D e m o c r a t i c U n i o n w o u l d p r o b a b l y
be t h e l a r g e s t p a r t y . I n H a n o v e r R e g i o n a n d H a m b u r g t h e S o c i a l D e m o c r a t s
w o u l d p r o b a b l y be t h e s t r o n g e s t , w i t h in H a m b u r g a s u b s t a n t i a l c o m m u n i s t a n d
in H a n o v e r Region a s u b s t a n t i a l r i g h t - w i n g r u n n e r u p . I n Schleswig-Holstein
the right-wing parties would probably prevail. If the G e r m a n government in
B e r l i n f a i r l y r e p r o d u c e d t h e o u t l o o k of t h e c o u n t r y i t w o u l d be n e i t h e r w h o l l y
e a s t w a r d looking nor wholly w e s t w a r d looking. T h e question would then t u r n
on w h e t h e r t h e w e s t e r n d e m o c r a c i e s o r t h e S o v i e t U n i o n w o u l d e x e r c i s e t h e
s t r o n g e r p u l l . O n t h e w h o l e t h e b a l a n c e of a d v a n t a g e seems t o lie w i t h t h e
R u s s i a n s . I t is h i g h l y u n l i k e l y t h a t t h e w e s t e r n d e m o c r a c i e s w o u l d b e a b l e
t o e x e r c i s e a n y influence i n t h e e a s t , a t a n y r a t e o u t s i d e B e r l i n itself. O n t h e
other h a n d , Communism already h a s its a d d i c t s in western G e r m a n y , a n d the
l i b e r a l a t t i t u d e of t h e o c c u p y i n g a u t h o r i t i e s in t h e w e s t w o u l d a l l o w t h e m a free
hand.
A d d e d t o t h i s w o u l d be t h e c o n s t a n t p r e s s u r e of p r o p a g a n d a a n d of
a g e n t s f r o m t h e east. A n d t h e p r e v a i l i n g m a t e r i a l c o n d i t i o n s w o u l d g i v e t h e m
a n e x c e l l e n t g r o u n d for t h e i r a c t i v i t i e s . T h e y w o u l d find t h e p o s i t i o n f a v o u r a b l e
both i n t h e s h o r t - t e r m a n d in t h e l o n g - t e r m . F o r t h e n e x t y e a r or so, n o m a t t e r
how g r e a t o u r efforts, o n e m u s t e x p e c t h u n g e r , cold a n d l a c k of s h e l t e r .
Later
on t h e level of i n d u s t r y p l a n w i l l ' t a k e effect, c a u s i n g l a r g e - s c a l e u n e m p l o y m e n t
and p r e v e n t i n g a n y . r a p i d reconstruction. I n such conditions Communism will
h a v e a n obvious a p p e a l a n d , w i t h i t s e m p h a s i s o n s t r o n g a u t h o r i t a r i a n g o v e r n ­
m e n t , can be p l a u s i b l y r e p r e s e n t e d a s t h e o n l y k i n d of s y s t e m w h i c h c a n possibly
cope w i t h so d e s p e r a t e a s i t u a t i o n . E v e n if t h e first n a t i o n a l elections g a v e t h e
d e m o c r a t i c p a r t i e s t h e a d v a n t a g e , one m u s t feel g r e a t e r d o u b t a b o u t t h e
s u b s e q u e n t ones.
9. A f e d e r a l s y s t e m for G e r m a n y w o u l d m i n i m i s e t h e s e d a n g e r s . I t w o u l d
be b a s e d o n t h e g r a n t of c o n s i d e r a b l e a u t o n o m o u s pOwers t o t h e p r o v i n c e s
w i t h a c o - o r d i n a t i n g b o d y a t t h e c e n t r e w h o s e p o w e r s w o u l d be s t r i c t l y
l i m i t e d . I t w o u l d be n e c e s s a r y to e x a m i n e e x a c t l y w h a t d i v i s i o n of p o w e r s w o u l d
be m o s t s u i t a b l e , w i t h a g e n e r a l t e n d e n c y to r e s t r i c t t h e p o w e r s of t h e c e n t r e to
t h e b a r e s t m i n i m u m n e c e s s a r y for i t s c o - o r d i n a t i n g f u n c t i o n .
The powers
r e s e r v e d for t h e c e n t r e w o u l d be m a i n l y t h o s e c o n c e r n e d w i t h e c o n o m i c s a n d
finance, t h o u g h t h e r e m i g h t be n o objection t o l e a v i n g even c e r t a i n financial
p o w e r s t o t h e p r o v i n c e s , w h i c h m i g h t , for i n s t a n c e , be a l l o w e d t o o r g a n i s e t h e i r
o w n social s e c u r i t y services. U n d e r a scheme of t h i s k i n d c e n t r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s ,
w h e t h e r set u p n o w u n d e r t h e A l l i e d C o n t r o l m a c h i n e r y or l a t e r u n d e r a f e d e r a l
G e r m a n g o v e r n m e n t , w o u l d a c t t h r o u g h t h e local G e r m a n g o v e r n m e n t s a n d w o u l d
be p r e v e n t e d so f a r a s p o s s i b l e f r o m o r g a n i s i n g a n e t w o r k of t h e i r o w n a g e n c i e s
t h r o u g h o u t G e r m a n y . I t m a y be objected t h a t a f e d e r a l s t r u c t u r e of t h i s k i n d
w o u l d n o t b e l i k e l y t o offer s e r i o u s r e s i s t a n c e to c o m m u n i s t influence a t t h e c e n t r e ,
s i n c e t h e l a t t e r w o u l d be able, w i t h even a s m a l l a m o u n t of m i l i t a r y or p a r a ­
m i l i t a r y force ( o r g a n i s e d n o d o u b t w i t h R u s s i a n a s s i s t a n c e ) to s w a l l o w u p t h e
d i s a r m e d a n d d i v i d e d r e g i o n a l u n i t s o n e by o n e . T h i s d a n g e r e x i s t s , b u t o n t h e .
w h o l e i t seems less s e r i o u s t h a n t o p r o v i d e t h e c o m m u n i s t s w i t h a c e n t r a l i s e d
m a c h i n e r e a d y t o h a n d , s u c h a s H i t l e r found w h e n h e c a m e t o p o w e r a s a r e s u l t
of t h e c e n t r a l i s i n g t e n d e n c i e s w h i c h h a d o p e r a t e d i n G e r m a n y since t h e t i m e
of B i s m a r k .
10. I n s e e k i n g a s o l u t i o n of o u r d i l e m m a t h e f o l l o w i n g c o n s i d e r a t i o n s s h o u l d
be b o r n e i n m i n d . T h o u g h w e could a r g u e t h a t t h e p r i n c i p l e s l a i d d o w n a t
P o t s d a m w e r e o n l y d e s i g n e d for t h e i n i t i a l c o n t r o l p e r i o d a n d a r e t h e r e f o r e n o w
d u e f o r r e c o n s i d e r a t i o n , n e v e r t h e l e s s to t h r o w t h e P o t s d a m p o l i c y o v e r b o a r d
e n t i r e l y a n d o r g a n i s e o u r zone as a n i n d e p e n d e n t u n i t w o u l d h a v e v e r y g r a v e
consequences -:—
(a) W e s h o u l d be u n a b l e to r e t a i n for l o n g even t h e f a c a d e of f o u r - P o w e r
c o - o p e r a t i o n i n G e r m a n y a n d s h o u l d soon find ourselves f o r c e d o u t of
Berlin.
(b) T h e h o p e s w e s t i l l e n t e r t a i n of b r e a k i n g d o w n t h e i r o n c u r t a i n w o u l d
h a v e t o be a b a n d o n e d . T h e whole of e a s t e r n G e r m a n y a n d i n d e e d of
e a s t e r n E u r o p e w o u l d be i r r e t r i e v a b l y lost t o R u s s i a .
(c) W e s h o u l d also h a v e to d e f e n d our zone (or w e s t e r n G e r m a n y ) f r o m t h e
i n f e c t i o n of p o l i t i c a l a n d economic influences from t h e e a s t .
For
e x a m p l e , we s h o u l d h a v e t o set u p a s e p a r a t e c u r r e n c y a n d a l m o s t
certainly a separate nationality.
(d) A l l t h i s — w h i c h w o u l d i n effect a m o u n t t o b r i n g i n g w e s t e r n G e r m a n y
i n t o a w e s t e r n a n t i - S o v i e t bloc—^would m e a n a n i r r e p a r a b l e b r e a k
w i t h t h e R u s s i a n s , w h o w o u l d g o all o u t t o d e s t r o y o u r policy i n
western G e r m a n y and t u r n the population against us. T h i s task
w o u l d n o t be difficult i n a n i n d u s t r i a l a r e a i n a p e r i o d of a c u t e food
s h o r t a g e . T h e y w o u l d , n o doubt, also r e d o u b l e t h e i r a t t a c k s o n u s i n
all o t h e r p a r t s of t h e w o r l d , a n d t h e p r o s p e c t of U . N . O . c o n t i n u i n g
i n s u c h c i r c u m s t a n c e s w o u l d be s l e n d e r .
(e) T h e A m e r i c a n s are, p r o b a b l y n o t y e t r e a d y for t h i s . C e r t a i n l y t h e i r
leading representatives in Germany would oppose it tooth and h a i l .
I n a n y case one could n o t c o u n t o n c o n t i n u e d A m e r i c a n s u p p o r t
even if t h e y c a m e t o a g r e e to it. B u t full A m e r i c a n s u p p o r t w o u l d
be e s s e n t i a l .
(/) T h e F r e n c h m i g h t o r m i g h t n o t s u p p o r t u s , d e p e n d i n g o n t h e s t r e n g t h
of c o m m u n i s m i n F r a n c e . I n a n y case C o m m u n i s t influence w o u l d
be s t r o n g e n o u g h t o m a k e t h e i r s u p p o r t a n u n c e r t a i n f a c t o r .
[g) T h e B e l g i a n s a n d D u t c h (as i n d e e d a l l m i n o r A l l i e s ) w o u l d b e d i s t r e s s e d
by a n y r e d u c t i o n of r e p a r a t i o n w h i c h w o u l d b e i n v o l v e d in o r g a n i s i n g
w e s t e r n G e r m a n y f o r p r o s p e r i t y , b u t t h e p r o s p e c t of r e s t o r i n g a
p r o s p e r o u s t r a d e w i t h G e r m a n y m i g h t reconcile t h e m t o t h e loss t o
some e x t e n t . T h e y w o u l d b e less e a s i l y reconciled t o t h e " f o r g i v e a n d
f o r g e t " a t t i t u d e towards the western G e r m a n s which our new policy
w o u l d n e c e s s a r i l y involve. T h e i r love for G e r m a n S o c i a l i s t s is n o
g r e a t e r t h a n t h e i r love for o t h e r G e r m a n s .
(h) W e s h o u l d find ourselves a t t h e m e r c y of G e r m a n b l a c k m a i l — " W e m u s t
be g i v e n t h i s a n d t h a t , or w e shall be o v e r w h e l m e d by t h e C o m m u n i s t s . ' '
W e s h o u l d p r o b a b l y soon h a v e t o a c c e p t a G e r m a n a r m y .
(i) T h e f e a r a n d c o n t e m p t w h i c h G e r m a n s feel for R u s s i a , c o u p l e d w i t h
t h e i r u n f o r g i v i n g r e s e n t m e n t a t t h e loss of t h e e a s t e r n p r o v i n c e s ,
m i g h t k e e p t h e m c o n t e n t for a t i m e w i t h h o l d i n g R u s s i a a t t h e E l b e .
B u t , w h e t h e r w e like i t or n o t , t h e c o n c e p t i o n of G e r m a n u n i t y is a
b a s i c f a c t w h i c h h a s s u r v i v e d m a n y c e n t u r i e s a n d is u n l i k e l y t o be
d e s t r o y e d by a n y a r t i f i c i a l c r e a t i o n e s t a b l i s h e d t o - d a y .
Sooner or
later t h e east a n d the west would join u p again.
(j) M e a n w h i l e w e s h o u l d h a v e lost t h e o n e f a c t o r w h i c h might h o l d u s a n d
t h e R u s s i a n s t o g e t h e r , viz., t h e e x i s t e n c e of a s i n g l e G e r m a n y w h i c h i t
w o u l d b e t o t h e i n t e r e s t of u s b o t h to h o l d d o w n .
11. T h e foregoing a r e powerful a r g u m e n t s a g a i n s t a b a n d o n i n g t h e P o t s d a m
policy a n d s e t t i n g o u t t o o r g a n i s e o u r o w n zone o r w e s t e r n G e r m a n y a s a s e p a r a t e
u n i t . O n t h e o t h e r h a n d a " w e s t e r n " policy, if developed w i t h d e t e r m i n a ­
t i o n a n d s u b j e c t t o t h e c o n d i t i o n s m e n t i o n e d i n p a r a g r a p h 12 below, c o u l d h a v e
c e r t a i n a t t r a c t i o n s :—­
(a) I t w o u l d b e clear b o t h t o t h e R u s s i a n s a n d t o t h e G e r m a n s t h a t w e w e r e
d e t e r m i n e d t o r e s i s t t h e f u r t h e r w e s t w a r d e x p a n s i o n of R u s s i a n
influence a n d of c o m m u n i s m . I n t h i s w e could e x p e c t t h e s u p p o r t of
t h e g r e a t m a j o r i t y of G e r m a n s , w h o s e a s s i s t a n c e w e s h o u l d h a v e i n
r e s i s t i n g t h e i n f i l t r a t i o n of a g e n t s f r o m t h e e a s t .
(b) B y d e n o u n c i n g t h e level of i n d u s t r y p l a n a n d l i m i t i n g r e p a r a t i o n t o m o r e
reasonable proportions we should give t h e western G e r m a n s a hope
f o r t h e f u t u r e even t h o u g h i t w o u l d i n itself b r i n g t h e m l i t t l e
i m m e d i a t e m a t e r i a l benefit.
(c) I f t h e G e r m a n p o p u l a t i o n b e c a m e m o r e contented, by s e e i n g o u r
determination t o save them from the Russians a n d restore their
economy, t h e t a s k s of o u r a u t h o r i t i e s w o u l d be l i g h t e n e d , a s also w o u l d
t h o s e of t h e G e r m a n a u t h o r i t i e s a s t h e y t a k e over r e s p o n s i b i l i t y for
administration.
12. I t m u s t , however, be s t r e s s e d t h a t t w o c o n d i t i o n s a r e e s s e n t i a l t o t h e
success of a " w e s t e r n " policy. T h e first is t h a t w e s h o u l d g i v e a n i m m e d i a t e
fillip t o t h e p o p u l a t i o n b y r a i s i n g t h e food r a t i o n a n d m a i n t a i n i n g i t a t a
s a t i s f a c t o r y level.
E v e n if t h e level of i n d u s t r y p l a n w a s d i s c a r d e d , w e m u s t
r e c k o n w i t h a n i n t e r v a l of t w o o r t h r e e y e a r s b e f o r e G e r m a n i n d u s t r i e s c o u l d be
so f a r r e h a b i l i t a t e d a s t o r e n d e r w e s t e r n G e r m a n y s e l f - s u p p o r t i n g . S e c o n d l y , w e
m u s t b e a s s u r e d of full a n d c o n t i n u e d s u p p o r t f r o m t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s .
1 3 . W h a t e v e r decision be t a k e n o n t h i s f u n d a m e n t a l p r o b l e m , t h e r e a r e
c e r t a i n m a t t e r s w h i c h w e s h o u l d k e e p t o t h e f o r e f r o n t of o u r policy. T h e s e a r e :—
(a) to c o n c e n t r a t e on c o n s t r u c t i v e m e a s u r e s i n o u r zone, b o t h p o l i t i c a l a n d
economic, a n d r e f u s e to be deflected f r o m o u r c o u r s e by t h e R u s s i a n s o r
s u c h s a t e l l i t e s a s t h e W o r l d F e d e r a t i o n of T r a d e U n i o n s ;
(&) to a c c e l e r a t e c o n s t i t u t i o n a l d e v e l o p m e n t i n o u r zone a n d t o develop t h e
local a u t o n o m y of t h e p r o v i n c i a l g o v e r n m e n t s , g i v i n g t h e m t h e w i d e s t
practicable powers a n d o r g a n i s i n g them in such a w a y t h a t they will
fit i n t o a f e d e r a t e d s t r u c t u r e e i t h e r f o r t h e w e s t e r n zones or f o r
G e r m a n y as a whole;
(c) t o m a i n t a i n a n d , if possible, i n c r e a s e t h e p r e s e n t food r a t i o n i n t h e
B r i t i s h zone a n d w e s t e r n G e r m a n y a s a w h o l e , a n d t o u s e e v e r y p r e s s u r e
t o e x t r a c t food s u r p l u s e s f r o m t h e R u s s i a n zone for t h e benefit of t h e
r e s t of G e r m a n y ;
(d) t o t a k e every possible s t e p t o i n c r e a s e coal p r o d u c t i o n a n d see t h a t a
sufficient p r o p o r t i o n is d e v o t e d t o t h e r e - a c t i v a t i o n of G e r m a n
industry;
(e) t o a p p l y t h e economic p r i n c i p l e s of P o t s d a m to t h e w e s t e r n zones even if
t h e R u s s i a n s r e f u s e t o c o l l a b o r a t e , a n d i n a n y case t o f o s t e r t h e
s o l i d a r i t y of t h e w e s t e r n z o n e s ;
(/) t o a c t i n fullest c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h t h e A m e r i c a n s ;
(g) t o m a i n t a i n o u r p o s i t i o n i n B e r l i n . .
14. T h e m e a s u r e s s u g g e s t e d in t h e p r e c e d i n g p a r a g r a p h a r e n o t a s u b s t i t u t e
for a p e r m a n e n t policy, b u t u n t i l w e see m o r e c l e a r l y w h a t is likely t o be t h e
f u t u r e of t h e R u h r , t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t single p r o b l e m affecting o u r p o s i t i o n i n
G e r m a n y , i t is difficult t o come t o a final d e c i s i o n . I t m u s t be r e c o g n i s e d , h o w ­
ever, t h a t t h e q u e s t i o n of c e n t r a l economic a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s , w h i c h t h e U n i t e d
S t a t e s G o v e r n m e n t s t i l l feel t o be o n e of t h e m o s t u r g e n t r e q u i r e m e n t s for A l l i e d
p o l i c y i n G e r m a n y , r a i s e s t h e f u n d a m e n t a l i s s u e w h e t h e r G e r m a n y is to be a
s i n g l e s t a t e or s p l i t i n t o e a s t e r n a n d w e s t e r n G e r m a n y c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e
R u s s i a n Zone a n d the three W e s t e r n Zones respectively.
If agreement was
r e a c h e d b e t w e e n t h e f o u r P o w e r s t h a t w e s h o u l d all g r a d u a l l y w o r k t o w a r d s - ar
federall s y s t e m i n G e r m a n y , i n t o w h i c h t h e p r o p o s e d n e w P r o v i n c e of t h e R u h r
w o u l d fit, t h i s m i g h t a l l o w t h e decision t o be s o m e w h a t p o s t p o n e d , b u t i t c a n n o t
be i n d e f i n i t e l y a v o i d e d . I f i t w a s felt t h a t w e h a d t o a b a n d o n t h e i d e a of a
unified G e r m a n y , even w i t h a f e d e r a l system, i t w o u l d be m o s t i m p o r t a n t t o e n s u r e
t h a t r e s p o n s i b i l i t y for t h e b r e a k w a s p u t s q u a r e l y on t h e R u s s i a n s .
E. B.
Foreign
Office,
3rd May, 1946.
ANNEX.
S U R V E Y OF P R E S E N T S I T U A T I O N I N
I.—ALLIED
GERMANY. G O V E R N M E N T AND P O L I C Y . Declaration
of
Defeat,
1. G e r m a n y s u r r e n d e r e d o n t h e 7 t h M a y , 1945. O n t h e 5 t h J u n e a
D e c l a r a t i o n r e g a r d i n g t h e D e f e a t of G e r m a n y w a s s i g n e d i n B e r l i n by r e p r e ­
s e n t a t i v e s of t h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m , U n i t e d S t a t e s , U . S . S . R . a n d F r a n c e , w h o s e
Governments thereby assumed supreme a u t h o r i t y w t i h respect to Germany. T h e
g e n e r a l c o n d i t i o n s in w h i c h t h e y u n d e r t o o k t h i s r e s p o n s i b i l i t y w e r e t h a t
p r a c t i c a l l y every l a r g e t o w n i n G e r m a n y w a s i n r u i n s , t h e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s h a d
been d i s r u p t e d a n d t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n h a d d i s a p p e a r e d .
T h a t immediate
s t a r v a t i o n a n d e p i d e m i c s d i d n o t se.t i n w a s due t o t h e e x i s t e n c e of c o n s i d e r a b l e
food r e s e r v e s a n d t o t h e efforts of t h e A l l i e d m i l i t a r y a d m i n i s t r a t i o n .
Control
Machinery.
2. P l a n s h a d a l r e a d y been w o r k e d out for t h e A l l i e d g o v e r n m e n t of
Germany.
T h e s e p r o v i d e d for t h e e x e r c i s e of t h e s u p r e m e a u t h o r i t y by t h e
C o m m a n d e r s - i n - C h i e f of t h e f o u r P o w e r s , e a c h of w h o m is s u p r e m e i n h i s o w n
zone of o c c u p a t i o n , w h i l e i n m a t t e r s affecting G e r m a n y as a w h o l e t h e y c o n s t i t u t e
j o i n t l y a s u p r e m e o r g a n of c o n t r o l called t h e C o n t r o l C o u n c i l . T h e w h o l e of
G e r m a n y i s u n d e r m i l i t a r y o c c u p a t i o n a n d is for t h a t p u r p o s e d i v i d e d i n t o f o u r
zones. B e r l i n is j o i n t l y o c c u p i e d i n f o u r sections a n d is a d m i n i s t e r e d by a f o u r P o w e r body known as t h e K o m e n d a t u r a .
Potsdam A
greement.
3. T h e first p u b l i c s t a t e m e n t of A l l i e d policy w a s i s s u e d a f t e r t h e C r i m e a
C o n f e r e n c e i n F e b r u a r y 1945. T h i s w a s s u p p l e m e n t e d b y t h e P o t s d a m A g r e e m e n t
of A u g u s t 1945. T h e P o t s d a m A g r e e m e n t set o u t t h e p u r p o s e s of t h e o c c u p a t i o n
as (i) c o m p l e t e d i s a r m a m e n t a n d d e m i l i t a r i s a t i o n , (ii) t o c o n v i n c e t h e G e r m a n
p e o p l e of t h e i r t o t a l d e f e a t a n d of t h e i r o w n r e s p o n s i b i l i t y for t h e i r p r e s e n t
suffering, (iii) to d e s t r o y N a t i o n a l S o c i a l i s m , a n d (iv) " t o p r e p a r e for t h e
e v e n t u a l r e c o n s t r u c t i o n of G e r m a n p o l i t i c a l l i f e on a d e m o c r a t i c b a s i s a n d for
eventual peaceful co-operation in i n t e r n a t i o n a l life by G e r m a n y . "
4. A m o n g t h e p o l i t i c a l p r i n c i p l e s t o g o v e r n t h e t r e a t m e n t of G e r m a n y i n t h e
initial control period were the following :—
(a) t h a t so f a r as p r a c t i c a b l e t h e r e s h o u l d be u n i f o r m i t y of t r e a t m e n t of t h e
German population throughout Germany;
(b) t h a t t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n i n G e r m a n y s h o u l d be d i r e c t e d t o w a r d s t h e
d e c e n t r a l i s a t i o n of t h e p o l i t i c a l s t r u c t u r e a n d t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of local
r e s p o n s i b i l i t y . T h i s w o u l d i n c l u d e t h e r e s t o r a t i o n of local self­
g o v e r n m e n t o n d e m o c r a t i c a n d elective p r i n c i p l e s , t h e p e r m i s s i o n a n d
e n c o u r a g e m e n t of a l l d e m o c r a t i c p a r t i e s , a n d t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n of t h e
r e p r e s e n t a t i v e a n d elective p r i n c i p l e i n t o r e g i o n a l a n d p r o v i n c i a l
administrations. F o r the time being no central G e r m a n Government
w o u l d be e s t a b l i s h e d , b u t c e r t a i n e s s e n t i a l c e n t r a l G e r m a n a d m i n i s ­
t r a t i v e d e p a r t m e n t s w o u l d be s e t u p i n t h e economic field, a c t i n g u n d e r
t h e d i r e c t i o n of t h e C o n t r o l C o u n c i l .
5. E c o n o m i c p r i n c i p l e s w e r e also s e t o u t , a n d a g r e e m e n t w a s r e a c h e d on
r e p a r a t i o n . T h e m a i n f e a t u r e s of these t w o s e c t i o n s w e r e t h a t t h e p r o d u c t i o n of
w a r m a t e r i a l w o u l d b e p r o h i b i t e d , t h e p r o d u c t i o n of w a r - i m p o r t a n t i n d u s t r i e s
rigidly controlled and restricted to G e r m a n y ' s peace-time needs, and surplus
p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y r e m o v e d a s r e p a r a t i o n or d e s t r o y e d ; b u t p a y m e n t of r e p a r a ­
t i o n s s h o u l d leave e n o u g h r e s o u r c e s to e n a b l e t h e G e r m a n p e o p l e to s u b s i s t w i t h o u t
e x t e r n a l a s s i s t a n c e a t a s t a n d a r d of l i v i n g n o t e x c e e d i n g t h e a v e r a g e s t a n d a r d of
European countries excluding the United Kingdom and the U.S.S.R.
The
first c h a r g e on e x p o r t s s h o u l d be for a p p r o v e d i m p o r t s .
The reparation
c l a i m s of R u s s i a a n d P o l a n d w o u l d be m e t by r e m o v a l s f r o m t h e Soviet zone,
a n d those of t h e o t h e r A l l i e s f r o m t h e w e s t e r n z o n e s ; b u t R u s s i a w o u l d a l s o
receive 2 5 p e r cent, of t h e e q u i p m e n t r e m o v e d f r o m t h e w e s t e r n zones, p a r t of
w h i c h s h e w o u l d e x c h a n g e for r a w m a t e r i a l s of e q u i v a l e n t v a l u e . T h e a m o u n t
of e q u i p m e n t t o be r e m o v e d f r o m t h e w e s t e r n zones w o u l d b e d e t e r m i n e d w i t h i n
s i x m o n t h s , viz., b y t h e 2 n d F e b r u a r y , 1946. I t w a s a l s o l a i d d o w n t h a t d u r i n g
t h e p e r i o d of o c c u p a t i o n G e r m a n y w o u l d b e t r e a t e d a s a s i n g l e economic
u n i t a n d t h a t p r i m a r y e m p h a s i s w o u l d be g i v e n to t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of a g r i c u l t u r e
a n d peaceful d o m e s t i c i n d u s t r i e s .
6. I t w a s d e c i d e d a t P o t s d a m t o t r a n s f e r t o P o l i s h a d m i n i s t r a t i o n t h e
f o r m e r G e r m a n t e r r i t o r i e s e a s t of t h e O d e r - W e s t e r n N e i s s e l i n e ( e x c e p t for
t h e a r e a a r o u n d K o n i g s b e r g w h i c h w o u l d be h a n d e d over to R u s s i a ) .
I t was
a g r e e d t h a t t h e G e r m a n p o p u l a t i o n s of P o l a n d , C z e c h o s l o v a k i a a n d H u n g a r y ,
w o u l d be t r a n s f e r r e d t o G e r m a n y i n a n o r d e r l y a n d h u m a n e m a n n e r i n a c c o r d ­
a n c e w i t h a p l a n t o b e d r a w n u p by t h e C o n t r o l C o u n c i l . T h e C o n t r o l C o u n c i l
a g r e e d on a p l a n t o t h i s effect in N o v e m b e r 1945.
II.—GENERAL
SITUATION T O - D A Y .
Four-Power
co-operation.
7. T h e e n d of t h e w a r left G e r m a n y a v a c u u m . T h e q u e s t i o n s t i l l t o be
d e c i d e d is h o w t h i s v a c u u m is t o be filled, a n d t h e a n s w e r will be a t o u c h s t o n e
of G r e a t P o w e r c o l l a b o r a t i o n .
T h e general conception a t the p l a n n i n g stage
w a s t h a t t h e f o u r P o w e r s s h o u l d fill t h e g a p by j o i n t l y e x e r c i s i n g t h e s u p r e m e
a u t h o r i t y u n t i l s u c h t i m e a s G e r m a n y h a d been p u r g e d of h e r vices a n d c o u l d
safely be p e r m i t t e d t o r e s u m e h e r o w n i n d e p e n d e n t p l a c e i n t h e E u r o p e a n
s t r u c t u r e . T h e first e s s e n t i a l t o t h e success of t h i s p o l i c y is, of course, t h a t t h e
f o u r P o w e r s s h o u l d m a i n t a i n a u n i t e d f r o n t a n d , ' so l o n g a s m a t t e r s of h i g h
p o l i c y h a v e n o t s u p e r v e n e d , h a r m o n y h a s n o t been l a c k i n g . P e r s o n a l r e l a t i o n s
a r e for t h e m o s t p a r t good, a n d i n c e r t a i n i m p o r t a n t m a t t e r s t h e i n t e r e s t s of
t h e f o u r P o w e r s c o i n c i d e . T h e r e is, f o r e x a m p l e , n o d i s a g r e e m e n t i n p r i n c i p l e
o n t h e need t o d i s a r m G e r m a n y . A g r e e m e n t h a s been r e a c h e d o n s u c h b i g i s s u e s
a s d e n a z i f i c a t i o n , t h e r e f o r m of t h e j u d i c i a l s y s t e m a n d t h e f u t u r e level of
G e r m a n i n d u s t r y . N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e s p i r i t of c o - o p e r a t i o n h a s t e n d e d t o w e a k e n
a s f u n d a m e n t a l issues a r i s e i n v o l v i n g n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t s a n d ideologies.
No
P o w e r is a t p r e s e n t s t r o n g e n o u g h t o c a p t u r e G e r m a n y a s a whole, n o r is t h e
o r g a n i s a t i o n for so d o i n g a t p r e s e n t i n e x i s t e n c e .
B u t i n i t s own z o n e e a c h
P o w e r is d o i n g i t s best t o sow i t s o w n beliefs w h i c h , in so f a r as t h e E a s t a n d
W e s t are concerned, are diametrically opposed.
8. T h i s f u n d a m e n t a l a n t a g o n i s m b e t w e e n t h e t o t a l i t a r i a n a n d t h e l i b e r a l
creeds, both of w h i c h c l a i m to r e p r e s e n t t h e t r u e d e m o c r a c y , h a s been s o m e w h a t
overclouded by e x t r a n e o u s d i s p u t e s . T h e F r e n c h , n o t h a v i n g been i n v i t e d t o
t h e P o t s d a m C o n f e r e n c e , w e r e c r i t i c a l of i t s conclusions f r o m t h e s t a r t a n d , i n
p a r t i c u l a r , of t h e d e c i s i o n t o set u p G e r m a n c e n t r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s .
They
a r g u e d t h a t t h e e x i s t e n c e of s u c h a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s , if g i v e n a u t h o r i t y over t h e
w h o l e of G e r m a n t e r r i t o r y , w o u l d i n e v i t a b l y p r e j u d i c e t h e i r a i m to d e t a c h t h e
R u h r and the R h i n e l a n d from G e r m a n y . F o r this reason they have used their
veto on the C o n t r o l C o u n c i l to block t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of t h e s e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s .
T h e i r i n t r a n s i g e n c e h a s e x a s p e r a t e d t h e A m e r i c a n s w h o s e g r e a t p u r p o s e i t is
t o g e t t h e m a i n P o t s d a m objectives, s u c h a s d i s a r m a m e n t a n d d e n a z i f i c a t i o n ,
finished off a s q u i c k l y a s possible a n d t h e n h a n d o v e r t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n t o t h e
Germans.
A m e r i c a n e x a s p e r a t i o n h a s n o t been l i m i t e d t o c r i t i c i s m of t h e
F r e n c h . W e , too, h a v e h a d o u r f a i r s h a r e of it, o w i n g t o o u r slower a n d m o r e
c a u t i o u s a p p r o a c h d e r i v i n g f r o m o u r l o n g - t e r m i n t e r e s t i n t h e f u t u r e of G e r m a n y .
B u t t h e A m e r i c a n s i n B e r l i n h a v e u s u a l l y been c a r e f u l t o k e e p on t h e r i g h t s i d e
of t h e R u s s i a n s , w i t h t h e u n f o r t u n a t e r e s u l t t h a t t h e r e h a s a t t i m e s b e e n a l m o s t
a R u s s o - A m e r i c a n bloc i n t h e C o n t r o l C o m m i s s i o n . T h i s , of course, h a s s u i t e d
t h e R u s s i a n s v e r y well, a n d t h e y h a v e e x e r c i s e d m u c h i n g e n u i t y i n s i n g l i n g
u s o u t for c r i t i c i s m a n d , a t t h e s a m e t i m e , f l a t t e r i n g t h e A m e r i c a n s .
Central
and zonal
administration.
9. Q u a d r i p a r t i t e g o v e r n m e n t is itself a n u n p r e c e d e n t e d e x p e r i m e n t .
In
t h i s t r o u b l e d a t m o s p h e r e a n d u n a i d e d as i t i s b y a n y c e n t r a l G e r m a n
a d m i n i s t r a t i v e a u t h o r i t y , i t is b o u n d to c r e a k a n d t h e b u r d e n - of g o v e r n m e n t
t o flow to t h e z o n e s w h i c h t e n d t o become q u a s i - i n d e p e n d e n t , e a c h a d m i n i s t e r e d
a c c o r d i n g t o t h e v i e w s of t h e o c c u p y i n g P o w e r .
T h i s t e n d e n c y is f u r t h e s t
a d v a n c e d i n t h e R u s s i a n zone a n d , t h o u g h t h e i r u n i t of a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s t i l l
r e m a i n s t h e " L a n d , " t h e y h a v e g o n e so f a r i n t h e p r o c e s s t o w a r d s z o n a l
a d m i n i s t r a t i o n t h a t they could set u p a z o n a l g o v e r n m e n t w i t h o u t difficulty a t
a n y t i m e t h a t s u i t e d t h e m . "We i n o u r zone w o r k on t h e p r o v i n c e o r " L a n d "
b u t h a v e e s t a b l i s h e d zonal a d v i s o r y b o d i e s a n d a r e c o n t e m p l a t i n g t h e e s t a b l i s h ­
m e n t of c e r t a i n z o n a l e x e c u t i v e bodies. T h e A m e r i c a n s w o r k d i r e c t f r o m t h e i r
own e l e m e n t of t h e C o n t r o l C o m m i s s i o n to t h e t h r e e ' ' L a n d ' ' G o v e r n m e n t s i n
t h e i r zone a n d t h e only c o - o r d i n a t i o n between t h e t h r e e " L a n d e r " lies i n
conferences between the " L a n d " Governments. The French, w h o a r e w e d d e d
t o t h e i d e a of d e c e n t r a l i s a t i o n , h a v e n o t set u p a n y zonal o r g a n i s a t i o n i n t h e i r
zone b u t a r e r a t h e r f o l l o w i n g t h e A m e r i c a n p l a n of b u i l d i n g u p t h e p r o v i n c e s .
10. T h e P o t s d a m A g r e e m e n t p o s t u l a t e d p o l i t i c a l d e c e n t r a l i s a t i o n a n d
economic u n i t y .
P o l i t i c a l a u t o n o m y i n t h e zones w o u l d t h e r e f o r e n o t b e
inherently contrary to P o t s d a m . A t the same time the zonal boundaries w e r e
n o t d r a w n u p for t h a t p u r p o s e . I n some cases, e.g., in B a d e n a n d W u r t e m b e r g ,
t h e y c u t a c r o s s t h e old s t a t e b o u n d a r i e s . I n a n y e v e n t it i s scarcely conceivable
t h a t t h e y w i l l be m a i n t a i n e d indefinitely a f t e r t h e o c c u p a t i o n h a s come to a n e n d ,
if o n l y for t h e r e a s o n t h a t t h e y w i l l r e c a l l t h e p e r i o d of G e r m a n h u m i l i a t i o n .
T h e r e c a n be n o p e r m a n e n t p o l i t i c a l f u t u r e for a n i n d e p e n d e n t zone. I n t h e
economic s p h e r e t h e d i v i s i o n of t h e c o u n t r y i n t o zones is of g r e a t e r i m m e d i a t e
consequence. G e r m a n y w a s developed a s an economic u n i t , as w a s r e c o g n i s e d a t
P o t s d a m . E a c h p a r t i n e v i t a b l y suffers i f t h e z o n a l f r o n t i e r s a r e t r a d e b a r r i e r s ;
a n d t h e B r i t i s h zone, b e i n g t h e l e a s t s e l f - s u p p o r t i n g i n foodstuffs, suffers w o r s t
of all. T o - d a y t h e r e is a very l i m i t e d i n t e r z o n a l t r a d e and' a n i n t e r z o n a l p o s t a l ,
t e l e g r a p h a n d t e l e p h o n e s y s t e m h a s b e g u n t o o p e r a t e . I t h a s also been a g r e e d
t h a t a f o u r - P o w e r commission s h a l l p r o c e e d to all f o u r zones t o w a t c h over t h e
a p p l i c a t i o n of t h e r e p a r a t i o n p l a n . B u t t h e zones a r e n o w , i n l a r g e m e a s u r e ,
a r t i f i c i a l l y s e p a r a t e d economic u n i t s a n d t h i s , t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e absence of c e n t r a l
economic a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s , i s g r e a t l y i m p e d i n g efforts a t r e c o n s t r u c t i o n .
Above
all, n o s o u n d financial system c a n be looked for w i t h o u t a financial a d m i n i s t r a t i o n
at the centre.
Transfer
of
populations.
1 1 . T h e f o r e g o i n g difficulties a r i s e because p a r t of t h e P o t s d a m A g r e e m e n t
h a s n o t been c a r r i e d o u t . T h e r e a r e n o c e n t r a l G e r m a n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s a n d
G e r m a n y is n o t b e i n g t r e a t e d a s a s i n g l e economic u n i t . O t h e r difficulties a r e
d u e t o t h e p r e c i s e l y o p p o s i t e r e a s o n t h a t the P o t s d a m A g r e e m e n t is b e i n g c a r r i e d
out. P o t s d a m l a i d d o w n t h a t t h e G e r m a n p o p u l a t i o n s r e m a i n i n g i n P o l a n d ,
C z e c h o s l o v a k i a a n d H u n g a r y s h o u l d be t r a n s f e r r e d i n t o G e r m a n y , w h i c h w a s
itself g r e a t l y r e d u c e d i n a r e a b y t h e loss of t h e e a s t e r n p r o v i n c e s . T h e e x o d u s
h a d a l r e a d y s t a r t e d on a c o n s i d e r a b l e scale before t h e w a r e n d e d . B u t t h e
c o m p l e t i o n of t h e t r a n s f e r involves, a c c o r d i n g to t h e p l a n s u b s e q u e n t l y w o r k e d
o u t b y t h e C o n t r o l C o u n c i l , n o less t h a n 6-J m i l l i o n p e r s o n s . T h e C o n t r o l C o u n c i l
a g r e e d t h a t these s h o u l d be t r a n s f e r r e d by t h e e n d of J u l y 1946. T h o u g h t h i s
d a t e w i l l c e r t a i n l y n o t be k e p t a n d t h o u g h t h e P o t s d a m A g r e e m e n t l a i d clown t h a t
the t r a n s f e r s s h o u l d be c a r r i e d o u t i n a n o r d e r l y a n d h u m a n e m a n n e r , n e v e r t h e l e s s
t h e o p e r a t i o n c a n n o t f a i l to c o n s t i t u t e one of t h e m a j o r p r o b l e m s w h i c h t h e
a u t h o r i t i e s i n G e r m a n y w i l l h a v e to face.
These people arrive w i t h few
b e l o n g i n g s a n d l i t t l e m o n e y a n d o f t e n i n a p o o r s t a t e of h e a l t h . A n u n d u l y h i g h
p r o p o r t i o n of t h e m a r e w o m e n , c h i l d r e n a n d old m e n . T h e p r o s p e c t of t h e i r
finding e i t h e r w o r k or h o m e s i s m e a g r e a n d t h e y also c r e a t e an a d d i t i o n a l d r a i n
on t h e a l r e a d y i n a d e q u a t e food s u p p l i e s .
Reparation
and level of
industry.
12. A f u r t h e r decision t a k e n a t P o t s d a m w h i c h w i l l h a v e t h e g r a v e s t effect
on G e r m a n y ' s economy is t h a t r e l a t i n g to r e p a r a t i o n a n d t h e level of G e r m a n
industry. I t was already agreed at the Crimea Conference t h a t Germany should
m a k e c o m p e n s a t i o n in k i n d t o t h e g r e a t e s t e x t e n t possible f o r t h e d a m a g e s h e
h a d c a u s e d . T h e p r i n c i p l e s a c c o r d i n g to w h i c h t h i s s h o u l d be c a r r i e d o u t w e r e
a g r e e d a t P o t s d a m a n d h a v e been s u m m a r i s e d i n p a r a g r a p h 5 above. T h e n e x t
step w a s t o d e t e r m i n e w h a t G e r m a n y ' s level of i n d u s t r y s h o u l d be a n d , a f t e r
long a n d a t t i m e s e m b i t t e r e d d i s c u s s i o n , t h e C o n t r o l C o u n c i l e v e n t u a l l y a p p r o v e d
a p l a n on t h e 3 0 t h M a r c h , 1946. U n d e r t h i s p l a n c e r t a i n i n d u s t r i e s of p a r t i c u l a r
i m p o r t a n c e t o w a r p u r p o s e s a r e to be e l i m i n a t e d e n t i r e l y , w h i l e o t h e r s w i l l be
r e s t r i c t e d t o v a r i o u s p e r c e n t a g e s of t h e p r e - w a r level. N o r e s t r i c t i o n o n t h e
o t h e r h a n d is to b e p l a c e d on p e a c e f u l i n d u s t r i e s , w h i l e t h e p r o d u c t i o n of coal
is t o be m a x i m i s e d . I t is e s t i m a t e d t h a t t h e g e n e r a l effect will be t o r e d u c e t h e
level of i n d u s t r y as a whole t o a f i g u r e of a b o u t 5 0 - 5 5 p e r cent, of t h e 1938 level.
B u t t h e h e a v y i n d u s t r i e s a r e to be m o r e d r a s t i c a l l y r e d u c e d t h a n o t h e r s , t h e
p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y r e m a i n i n g to t h e m b e i n g of t h e o r d e r of a t h i r d of p r e - w a r .
S t e e l c a p a c i t y is r e d u c e d t o 7 - 5 m i l l i o n t o n s a y e a r , a n d t h e a c t u a l p r o d u c t i o n
i s n o t to exceed 5 - 8 m i l l i o n t o n s w i t h o u t t h e specific a p p r o v a l of t h e C o n t r o l
Council.
13. T h i s p l a n is f a r m o r e d r a s t i c t h a n H i s M a j e s t y ' s G o v e r n m e n t h a d
wished, b u t i t w a s f o u n d i m p o s s i b l e t o s t a n d o u t a g a i n s t the c o m b i n e d d e t e r ­
m i n a t i o n of t h e o t h e r t h r e e P o w e r s . A l l t h a t p r o v e d possible w a s t o e n t e r t h e
r e s e r v a t i o n t h a t t h e p l a n w o u l d c a l l for r e v i s i o n i n t h e e v e n t of a n y of t h e m a i n
assumptions on which it w a s based being altered. Such assumptions were t h a t
t h e w e s t e r n f r o n t i e r s of G e r m a n y w o u l d n o t be c h a n g e d , t h a t G e r m a n y w o u l d be
t r e a t e d a s a s i n g l e economic u n i t , t h a t t h e p o p u l a t i o n w o u l d n o t exceed
6 6 ^ million, a n d t h a t i t w o u l d b e possible for e x p o r t s t o p a y for i m p o r t s t o t h e
extent contemplated in the plan.
14. T h e R u s s i a n s h a d a n u n d e r s t a n d a b l e i n t e r e s t i n i n s i s t i n g on a d r a s t i c
solution. I n t h e first p l a c e t h e y a r e t o receive 25 p e r cent, of t h e p r o c e e d s by
w a y of r e p a r a t i o n . Secondly, t h e y a r e d e t e r m i n e d t o e l i m i n a t e a n y r i s k of t h e
western P o w e r s having a powerful G e r m a n w a r potential a t their disposal.
T h i r d l y , a l o w s t a n d a r d of l i v i n g i n t h e w e s t e r n zones w i l l f a c i l i t a t e t h e s p r e a d
of c o m m u n i s m i n t o those a r e a s . T h e a t t i t u d e of t h e A m e r i c a n s i s less e a s y t o
understand.
T h e y m a y p e r h a p s h a v e been influenced by t h e d e s i r e t o be r i d
of a c o m m e r c i a l c o m p e t i t o r , o r by t h e M o r g e n t h a u t r a d i t i o n of p a s t o r a l i s i n g
G e r m a n y , b u t even so slum c o n d i t i o n s i n t h e h e a r t of E u r o p e a r e u n l i k e l y t o be
to t h e i r p e r m a n e n t a d v a n t a g e . T h e F r e n c h c a n , of c o u r s e , n o t be e x p e c t e d to
resist a n y measure, however shortsighted, t h a t will weaken Germany.
15. I t is i m p o s s i b l e t o m a k e a n y a c c u r a t e f o r e c a s t of t h e effect t h a t t h i s
p l a n w i l l h a v e u p o n G e r m a n y . A t t h e m o m e n t t h e level of i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n
is still f a r b e l o w t h e a m o u n t p e r m i t t e d by t h e p l a n . I n t h e w e s t e r n zones i t is
r u n n i n g a t a b o u t 15 p e r c e n t , of p r e - w a r . W h a t t h e p l a n does is t o e n s u r e t h a t
G e r m a n y ' s e c o n o m y w i l l h o t be a l l o w e d t o r i s e a b o v e a very low s t a n d a r d for
a n i n d e f i n i t e p e r i o d . L a r g e - s c a l e u n e m p l o y m e n t , i n c r e a s e d s t i l l f u r t h e r by t h e
influx of r e f u g e e s , m u s t t h e r e f o r e be e x p e c t e d a s a m o r e o r less p e r m a n e n t s t a t e
of affairs.
A d d e d to w h i c h t h e r e w i l l be t h e p s y c h o l o g i c a l effect u p o n t h e
p o p u l a t i o n of s e e i n g t h e i r s o u r c e s of e m p l o y m e n t r e m o v e d or d e s t r o y e d . I t is
u n f o r t u n a t e t h a t t h e B r i t i s h zone is t h e a r e a w h i c h w i l l suffer w o r s t f r o m these
effects.
Food
crisis.
16. T h e i m m e d i a t e i m p a c t of t h e level of i n d u s t r y p l a n w i l l t h e n be chiefly
psychological. F o o d a n d coal o n t h e o t h e r h a n d a r e v i t a l p r o b l e m s t o - d a y . T h e
w o r l d food c r i s i s i s c o m m o n k n o w l e d g e . B u t t h e r e a r e a n u m b e r of r e a s o n s w h y
i t falls p a r t i c u l a r l y severely o n G e r m a n y . B e f o r e t h e w a r G e r m a n y w a s u p to
a b o u t 90 p e r cent, s e l f - s u p p o r t i n g i n foodstuffs, t h a n k s to a h i g h l y - d e v e l o p e d
a n d p r o t e c t e d a g r i c u l t u r e a n d t o t h e l a r g e - s c a l e p r o d u c t i o n of a r t i f i c i a l f e r t i l i s e r s .
T h e economy w a s c e n t r a l l y o r g a n i s e d so t h a t t h e s u r p l u s e s f r o m o n e a r e a
s u p p l i e d t h e deficiencies of a n o t h e r .
I n p a r t i c u l a r t h e r e w a s ,a l a r g e flow of
foodstuffs f r o m t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l e a s t t o t h e w e s t e r n i n d u s t r i a l d i s t r i c t s . L a r g e
t r a c t s of t h e s e p r o d u c i n g a r e a s h a v e n o w been d e t a c h e d from G e r m a n y .
The
e a s t e r n t e r r i t o r i e s w e r e a l s o d e p o p u l a t e d a n d d e v a s t a t e d by w a r .
Furthermore
t h e c e n t r a l p l a n n i n g h a s d i s a p p e a r e d . S u c h s u r p l u s e s a s t h e r e m a y s t i l l be i n
t h e e a s t — a n d t h e i r p r e s e n t v o l u m e o r even e x i s t e n c e is u n k n o w n — a r e r e t a i n e d
by t h e R u s s i a n s f o r t h e i r o w n p u r p o s e s . I m p o r t s on a h e a v y scale a r e t h e r e f o r e
n e e d e d to m a i n t a i n a b a r e s u b s i s t e n c e for t h e p o p u l a t i o n of t h e w e s t e r n zones.
W h e n t h e w a r e n d e d , t h e s e a r e a s w e r e s t i l l i n p o s s e s s i o n of c o n s i d e r a b l e stocks,
l a r g e l y d r a w n f r o m t h e l i b e r a t e d c o u n t r i e s . T o - d a y t h o s e stocks h a v e been used
u p , a n d t h i s a t t h e very m o m e n t w h e n t h e w h o l e w o r l d is faced w i t h a n u n p r e c e ­
d e n t e d food s h o r t a g e . I t is o n l y n a t u r a l t h a t G e r m a n y should come low on t h e
l i s t of c l a i m a n t s . T h e r e s u l t h a s been t h a t w e h a v e h a d t o r e d u c e t h e r a t i o n
i n t h e B r i t i s h zone t o j u s t o v e r 1,000 c a l o r i e s f o r t h e o r d i n a r y c o n s u m e r a n d
t h e A m e r i c a n s h a v e h a d t o come d o w n to 1,275. T h e r a t i o n i n t h e F r e n c h zone
i s t h e o r e t i c a l l y a t a b o u t 1,000 calories, b u t i t is d o u b t f u l w h e t h e r t h i s is b e i n g
m a i n t a i n e d i n p r a c t i c e . T h e s e levels a r e n o t sufficient for h e a l t h . Y e t t h e r e is
n o i m m e d i a t e p r o s p e c t of r a i s i n g t h e m . F o o d h a s t h e r e f o r e become t h e m a j o r
p r o b l e m of t h e m a n i n t h e s t r e e t i n w e s t e r n G e r m a n y a s w e l l a s of t h e A l l i e d
a u t h o r i t i e s . U p o n t h e s o l u t i o n of t h i s p r o b l e m d e p e n d s n o t o n l y o u r good n a m e
a s a d m i n i s t r a t o r s b u t a n y h o p e we h a v e of r e - e d u o a t i n g t h e G e r m a n s . D e m o c r a c y
as u n d e r s t o o d i n t h e west c a n n o t be b u i l t on s t a r v a t i o n . F o r t h e R u s s i a n s t h i n g s
a r e e a s i e r . I n t h e first p l a c e t h e y h a v e t h e food p r o d u c i n g l a n d if t h e y like t o
use it. Secondly, t h e i r w a y of l i f e h a s less n e e d of h e a l t h y e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s ­
as a f o u n d a t i o n .
Coal.
17. E q u a l i n i m p o r t a n c e to food i s t h e q u e s t i o n of coal. I n d e e d , t h e t w o
p r o b l e m s i n t e r l o c k . W h e n w e first e n t e r e d G e r m a n y , coal p r o d u c t i o n h a d
v i r t u a l l y ceased. T h a n k s to t h e efforts of our a u t h o r i t i e s it w a s g r a d u a l l y b u i l t
u p a g a i n u n t i l by t h e b e g i n n i n g of M a r c h 1946 t h e h a r d coal o u t p u t w a s
1 -1 m i l l i o n t o n s p e r week or a b o u t 40 p e r cent, of t h e 1938 level. T h e c u t in t h e
food r a t i o n , w h i c h fell on t h e s p e c i a l l y f a v o u r e d m i n e r s as o n e v e r y o n e else, h a d
a n i m m e d i a t e r e p e r c u s s i o n a n d p r o d u c t i o n q u i c k l y d r o p p e d b y a b o u t 20 p e r cent.
N o r is it l i k e l y t o r i s e a p p r e c i a b l y u n l e s s a n d u n t i l t h e r a t i o n is r a i s e d . I t m a y
i n d e e d f a l l s t i l l lower. T h e effect of t h i s c a n n o t be o v e r s t a t e d . T h e r e is
p r a c t i c a l l y no e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y in G e r m a n y w h i c h does n o t d e p e n d o n coal for i t s
source of p o w e r . I t affects food p r o d u c t i o n as i t affects e v e r y t h i n g else. U n t i l
m o r e coal i s f o r t h c o m i n g , economic a c t i v i t y w i l l c o n t i n u e to s t a g n a t e , a n d e v e n
t h e level of i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n p e r m i t t e d by t h e C o n t r o l C o u n c i l ' s p l a n w i l l n o t
be r e a c h e d . N o r is t h e coal n o w p r o d u c e d d e v o t e d solely to G e r m a n y ' s d o m e s t i c
needs. O n t h e c o n t r a r y t h e p r e s e n t g o v e r n m e n t a l d i r e c t i v e i s t h a t t h e m a x i m u m
possible s h o u l d g o t o e x p o r t a n d o n l y so m u c h be r e t a i n e d i n G e r m a n y as is n e e d e d
to m e e t t h e m i n i m u m r e q u i r e m e n t s of t h e o c c u p a t i o n . A n d even t h i s does n o t
s a t i s f y t h e F r e n c h w h o p e r s i s t e n t l y d e m a n d t h a t t h e p e r c e n t a g e for e x p o r t s h o u l d
be r a i s e d r e g a r d l e s s of t h e effect of s u c h a m e a s u r e e i t h e r o n G e r m a n y itself o r
o n t h e m i n i n g i n d u s t r y from w h i c h t h e coal is d e r i v e d . C o a l i n f a c t is a c r u c i a l
p r o b l e m w h e t h e r r e g a r d e d f r o m t h e p o i n t of view of o u r a d m i n i s t r a t i o n of
G e r m a n y o r f r o m t h a t of o u r r e l a t i o n s w i t h o u r A l l i e s .
German political
developments.
18. G e r m a n p o l i t i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t is n a t u r a l l y affected by t h e s e d a y - t o - d a y
p r o b l e m s of e x i s t e n c e . I t w o u l d i n a n y case h a v e been u n r e a s o n a b l e to e x p e c t a
p o p u l a t i o n w h i c h h a s been d e n i e d all p o l i t i c a l e x p r e s s i o n a n d c o n t a c t w i t h t h e
o u t s i d e w o r l d f o r so l o n g t o m a k e a t once m u c h i n t e l l i g e n t use of t h e l i b e r t y w h i c h
f o r e i g n a r m i e s h a d b e s t o w e d u p o n it. A n d of course t h i s l i b e r t y w a s itself
c i r c u m s c r i b e d by t h e necessities of m i l i t a r y g o v e r n m e n t , n o t t o m e n t i o n s u c h
m a t e r i a l i m p e d i m e n t s as t h e d i s r u p t i o n of all c o m m u n i c a t i o n s a n d t h e d e s t r u c t i o n
of all t h e big t o w n s . I t is n o t s u r p r i s i n g t h e r e f o r e t h a t all e a r l y r e p o r t s f r o m
G e r m a n y s p o k e of t h e p o l i t i c a l a p a t h y of t h e p o p u l a t i o n . N e v e r t h e l e s s , p o l i t i c a l
p a r t i e s h a v e s t a r t e d t o revive. I n t h e e a s t t h e C o m m u n i s t s w i t h s t r o n g R u s s i a n
b a c k i n g h a v e m a d e t h e r u n n i n g a n d a r e well o n t h e w a y t o w a r d s e l i m i n a t i n g
or a b s o r b i n g a l l o t h e r p a r t i e s . T h e single p a r t y s y s t e m is l i k e l y soon t o be a n
a c c o m p l i s h e d f a c t i n t h e R u s s i a n zone. I n t h e w e s t e r n zones t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t
political p a r t i e s are the Social Democrats and the C h r i s t i a n Democratic Union,
n e i t h e r of w h i c h h a v e a n y i n c l i n a t i o n to m a k e a u n i t e d f r o n t w i t h t h e C o m m u n i s t s .
T h e l a t t e r a r e a n a c t i v e a n d well o r g a n i s e d m i n o r i t y b u t h a v e h i t h e r t o b e e n u n a b l e
t o m a k e m u c h h e a d w a y w i t h o u t t h e s u p p o r t of t h e R e d A r m y . T h e i r f u t u r e
p r o s p e c t s w i l l d e p e n d o n t h e effectiveness of t h e policy of t h e W e s t e r n A l l i e s
a n d on t h e d e g r e e of m a t e r i a l w e l l - b e i n g w h i c h t h e l a t t e r succeed i n m a i n t a i n i n g .
B u t t h e r e is o n e objective in w h i c h all p a r t i e s a r e u n i t e d , a n d t h a t is t h e p r e s e r v a ­
t i o n of G e r m a n u n i t y .
O p i n i o n s m a y differ on w h e t h e r G e r m a n y s h o u l d be
a c e n t r a l i s e d or f e d e r a l S t a t e , b u t a n y s u g g e s t i o n t h a t she s h o u l d be d i s m e m b e r e d
is a n a t h e m a t o all a l i k e . I n t h e c a m p a i g n for G e r m a n u n i t y t h e C o m m u n i s t s h a v e
cleverly t a k e n t h e l e a d , cynically i g n o r i n g t h e i m m e n s e t r u n c a t i o n s w h i c h t h e i r
R u s s i a n b a c k e r s h a v e i m p o s e d in t h e e a s t . T h e o t h e r p a r t i e s c a n n o t o p p o s e t h e m
on t h i s issue, w h i c h is p e r h a p s t h e o n l y one on w h i c h all G e r m a n s t h i n k alike.
Trade
Unions.
19. A l o n g w i t h p o l i t i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t t r a d e u n i o n s h a v e s t a r t e d t o f o r m
a g a i n . H e r e , too, t h e r e h a s been c o n s i d e r a b l e a p a t h y i n t h e r a n k a n d file, b u t
t h e y h a v e been e n c o u r a g e d by t h e i n t e r e s t s h o w n b y t r a d e u n i o n o r g a n i s a t i o n s
a b r o a d . A T . U . C . d e l e g a t i o n h a s v i s i t e d t h e B r i t i s h zone, w h i l e a d e l e g a t i o n
of t h e W o r l d F e d e r a t i o n h a s been t o B e r l i n a n d t o u r e d t h e w h o l e c o u n t r y .
The
m a n n e r i n w h i c h t r a d e u n i o n d e v e l o p m e n t s h o u l d p r o c e e d is n o t y e t settled.
T h e T . U . C . a d v i s e d s t r o n g l y i n f a v o u r of t h e B r i t i s h system of a c o n f e d e r a t i o n
of a u t o n o m o u s u n i o n s .
F o r t h e m o s t p a r t G e r m a n o p i n i o n seems to i n c l i n e
r a t h e r t o w a r d s a single c e n t r a l i s e d u n i o n , a n d t h i s is likely t o be f a v o u r e d by
t h e W o r l d F e d e r a t i o n , w h i c h seems to be l a r g e l y a n a g e n t of R u s s i a n ' policy.
A s elsewhere, t h e R u s s i a n s h o p e t o c a p t u r e t h e t r a d e u n i o n m o v e m e n t i n G e r m a n y
a n d c r e a t e o u t of i t a p o w e r f u l w e a p o n for a t t a i n i n g t h e i r p o l i t i c a l e n d s .
Denazification.
2 0 . A f t e r t h e i r v i s i t t o G e r m a n y t h e W o r l d F e d e r a t i o n issued a r e p o r t ,
a n d i t s r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s w e r e significant.
M o s t of t h e i m m e d i a t e p r a c t i c a l
p r o b l e m s of r e c o n s t r u c t i o n w e r e i g n o r e d . N o r e f e r e n c e , f o r e x a m p l e , w a s m a d e
to t h e food crisis, u n e m p l o y m e n t , t h e n e e d for r e c o n s t r u c t i o n o r p r o d u c t i o n , or
to t h e r e f u g e e problem.
C h i e f e m p h a s i s w a s l a i d on d e n a z i f i c a t i o n , o n w h i c h
t h e a t t i t u d e of t h e officers of m i l i t a r y g o v e r n m e n t w a s s t r o n g l y c r i t i c i s e d .
D e n a z i f i c a t i o n is, of course, a m a t t e r of t h e first i m p o r t a n c e . I t is i m p o s s i b l e
t o leave t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of G e r m a n y t o t h e m e n w h o p l a y e d l e a d i n g p a r t s u n d e r
t h e N a z i r e g i m e . T h e difficulty is t o find o t h e r p e o p l e of e x p e r i e n c e a n d a b i l i t y .
A f u r t h e r p r o b l e m i s t h e d a n g e r of c r e a t i n g a l a r g e body of r u t h l e s s d i s c o n t e n t e d
p e r s o n s w h o w i l l h a v e n o o u t l e t for t h e i r e n e r g i e s e x c e p t t o s a b o t a g e a n y o r d e r l y
g o v e r n m e n t t h a t m a y e m e r g e . S u c h difficulties a r e i g n o r e d a l i k e by t h e W o r l d
F e d e r a t i o n a n d by t h e R u s s i a n s , whose p u r p o s e seems t o be to c r e a t e t h e m a x i m u m
d i s l o c a t i o n i n t h e w e s t e r n zones a n d be left free t o o r g a n i s e t h e i r o w n zone in
their own way. They h a v e no compunction in u s i n g N a z i s where it suits them,
a n d , of course, t h e t w o h a v e m u c h i n common. I t is u n f o r t u n a t e t h a t w e so
often find ourselves on t h e d e f e n s i v e o n t h e q u e s t i o n of d e n a z i f i c a t i o n , w h i c h
is u s e d a s a stick t o b e a t u s w i t h b y t h e R u s s i a n s w h o t h e m s e l v e s a p p e a r t o be
i n t e r e s t e d in e x p l o i t i n g d e n a z i f i c a t i o n a s a m e a s u r e of class w a r f a r e .
I I I . — S I T U A T I O N IN THE ZONES.
A.—British
Zone.
Administration
and
politics.
2 1 . W h e n t h e B r i t i s h forces first took over i n t h e z o n e m o s t t h i n g s h a d
come to a s t a n d s t i l l .
T h e i m m e d i a t e job w a s t o knock s o m e s o r t of s h a p e o u t
of t h e c h a o s l e f t b e h i n d by t h e c o l l a p s e ; t o g e t t h e coal m i n e s w o r k i n g , t h e
railways running, canals a n d w a t e r w a y s cleared, bridges repaired,
food
distributed and displaced persons repatriated.
I t is e v e r y w h e r e a g r e e d t h a t o u r
m i l i t a r y a u t h o r i t i e s m a d e a fine j o b of it. T h e zone h a s been r e g a r d e d by m a n y
a s t h e best r u n , a n d t h e b e h a v i o u r of t h e B r i t i s h soldier, h i s common sense a n d
f a i r n e s s , m a d e h i m t h e m o s t p o p u l a r of t h e f o r e i g n t r o o p s i n G e r m a n y .
How
f a r t h e food c r i s i s will c h a n g e t h i s r e m a i n s to b e seen.
22. I n t h e e a r l y d a y s d i r e c t m i l i t a r y g o v e r n m e n t w a s t h e o n l y m e t h o d of
a d m i n i s t r a t i o n possible, if o n l y b e c a u s e t h e local G e r m a n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n h a d
d i s a p p e a r e d . T h e c h a n g e is n o w b e i n g m a d e to c i v i l i a n c o n t r o l .
The Army
C o r p s C o m m a n d e r s , w h o h a v e h i t h e r t o been m i l i t a r y g o v e r n o r s of t h e i r d i s t r i c t s ,
w i l l confine t h e i r d u t i e s t o t h a t of g a r r i s o n c o m m a n d e r .
Civilian regional
c o m m i s s i o n e r s will be a p p o i n t e d t o e a c h of t h e five r e g i o n s i n t h e zone.
Among
t h e s u b o r d i n a t e staffs c i v i l i a n s a r e r e p l a c i n g s o l d i e r s . T h e c h a n g e serves t w o
p u r p o s e s . I n t h e first p l a c e , i t is n e c e s s i t a t e d b y t h e s h o r t a g e of s e r v i c e officers
r e s u l t i n g from d e m o b i l i s a t i o n . Secondly, i t is p a r t of o u r definite policy of
p l a c i n g r e s p o n s i b i l i t y on t h e G e r m a n s for t h e i r o w n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n .
British
c o n t r o l a n d s u p e r v i s i o n w i l l t a k e t h e p l a c e of d i r e c t g o v e r n m e n t e x c e p t i n
subjects which are necessarily reserved.
23. T h e G e r m a n bodies t o w h o m t h e s e r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s a r e b e i n g t r a n s ­
f e r r e d a r e a t p r e s e n t councils n o m i n a t e d b y t h e B r i t i s h a u t h o r i t i e s .
Such
c o u n c i l s h a v e a l r e a d y been e s t a b l i s h e d a t a l m o s t all d i s t r i c t levels a n d a t c e r t a i n
of t h e h i g h e r levels. T h e i n t e n t i o n i s t o r e p l a c e t h e m i n d u e c o u r s e by elected
councils. T h e p r e s e n t p r o v i s i o n a l t i m e - t a b l e for elections i s —
D i s t r i c t elections, A u t u m n , 1 9 4 6 ; R e g i o n a l elections, S p r i n g , 1 9 4 7 ; Z o n a l elections, S u m m e r or A u t u m n , 1947. 24. I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e p r o v i n c i a l a n d local councils, a s t a r t h a s been m a d e
w i t h e s t a b l i s h i n g m a c h i n e r y t o cover t h e w h o l e zone. E a r l y i n M a r c h a z o n a l
a d v i s o r y council w a s set u p , composed of civil s e r v a n t s , t e c h n i c i a n s a n d r e p r e ­
s e n t a t i v e s of t h e p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s , t r a d e u n i o n s a n d t h e c o - o p e r a t i v e m o v e m e n t .
T h e r e is also a n economic a d v i s o r y b o a r d a n d a z o n a l finance d e p a r t m e n t , a n d
i n a d d i t i o n a c e n t r a l office f o r food a n d a g r i c u l t u r e w i t h e x e c u t i v e p o w e r s . I t
is t o o e a r l y t o s a y h o w effective t h e s e b o d i e s w i l l p r o v e t o be.
^
25. O u r policy is to b u i l d d e m o c r a c y f r o m t h e b o t t o m u p w a r d s .
Political
p a r t i e s w e r e a t first a p p r o v e d o n l y o n a local b a s i s , b u t n o w t h e y a r e p e r m i t t e d
to o r g a n i s e on a z o n a l b a s i s . T h o u g h t h e r e w a s a t first w i d e s p r e a d p o l i t i c a l
a p a t h y , a n u m b e r of p a r t i e s a r e n o w s h o w i n g a c t i v i t y . T h e t h r e e m a i n p a r t i e s ,
the Social Democratic P a r t y (S.D.P.), the Communist P a r t y (K.P.D.) a n d the
C h r i s t i a n D e m o c r a t i c U n i o n ( C . D . U . ) c o n f o r m to t h e p r e v a l e n t c o n t i n e n t a l
pattern. There are in addition the Lower Saxon P a r t y , the Free Democrat P a r t y ,
b o t h f a i r l y R i g h t w i n g a n d likely t o a m a l g a m a t e , a n d t h e C e n t r e P a r t y
( C a t h o l i c ) . T h i s h a s so f a r r e f u s e d to m e r g e w i t h t h e C . D . U . , w h i c h s t a n d s
s o m e w h a t m o r e to t h e R i g h t t h a n t h e C e n t r e P a r t y .
26. T h e S o c i a l D e m o c r a t s a r e a t p r e s e n t p r o b a b l y t h e s t r o n g e s t p a r t y
n u m e r i c a l l y i n t h e zone. T h e i r l e a d i n g figure, S c h u m a c n e r , is a n o u t s t a n d i n g
p e r s o n a l i t y . C o u r a g e , p e r s o n a l i n t e g r i t y , a s t r o n g a n t i - N a z i r e c o r d a n d even
stronger Socialist convictions, have m a d e h i m the spokesman, though not always
u n c h a l l e n g e d , of t h e S o c i a l D e m o c r a t s i n t h e t h r e e w e s t e r n zones a n d i n a lesser
w a y of t h e i n d e p e n d e n t S o c i a l i s t s in B e r l i n . T h e m a i n p o i n t s of t h e p a r t y p o l i c y
i n c l u d e n a t i o n a l i s a t i o n of i n d u s t r y a n d social r e f o r m , G e r m a n t e r r i t o r i a l
i n t e g r i t y a n d p o l i t i c a l u n i t y , t h e i n d e p e n d e n c e of t h e p a r t y a s a g a i n s t t h e
C o m m u n i s t s a n d t h e a t t r a c t i o n of t h e m i d d l e - c l a s s a n d w o r k e r s ' vote i n s u p p o r t
of d e m o c r a c y on a w e s t e r n p a t t e r n .
27. T h e C o m m u n i s t P a r t y follows t h e B e r l i n - M o s c o w l i n e . I t s m a i n a i m s
are G e r m a n u n i t y (the R u h r for the worker), S . P . D . / K . P . D . fusion in a Socialist
U n i t y P a r t y w i t h a v i e w to e s t a b l i s h i n g a w o r k e r s ' r e p u b l i c on a single p a r t y
basis, a n d t h e r e a l i s a t i o n of M a r x i s t as o p p o s e d t o w e s t e r n d e m o c r a c y . I t i s o u t ­
s p o k e n i n i t s c r i t i c i s m of B r i t i s h policy, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n r e s p e c t of d e n a z i f i c a t i o n
a n d food. T h i s c r i t i c i s m is likely to find m a n y s y m p a t h i s e r s u n l e s s t h e food
situation improves.
28. T h e C h r i s t i a n D e m o c r a t i c U n i o n f a v o u r s p r i v a t e e n t e r p r i s e a n d
r e l i g i o u s f r e e d o m . I t a t t r a c t s f o r m e r p r o p e r t y o w n e r s a n d c a n h o p e to o b t a i n
a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of t h e N a z i vote, t h o u g h t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t m a n y n o m i n a l
a n d o t h e r N a z i s m a y vote o n t h e C o m m u n i s t t i c k e t s h o u l d n o t be e x c l u d e d .
It
could h a r d l y h o p e t o s u r v i v e a p r o l o n g e d d e p r e s s i o n . I t is i n t o u c h w i t h t h e
C h r i s t i a n S o c i a l i s t U n i o n , i t s c o u n t e r p a r t i n t h e A m e r i c a n zone, w h i c h w a s t h e
m o s t successful p a r t y i n t h e o n l y elections so f a r h e l d .
29. T h e t r a d e u n i o n m o v e m e n t i n t h e B r i t i s h zone w a s slow t o develop.
T h i s is h a r d l y s u r p r i s i n g a s i t is c l e a r l y difficult to r e c o n c i l e t h e e x i g e n c i e s of
m i l i t a r y g o v e r n m e n t w i t h t r a d e u n i o n a c t i v i t i e s . R e c e n t d e v e l o p m e n t h a s been
m o r e r a p i d . N o e s t i m a t e of t h e t o t a l n u m b e r s for t h e zone is a v a i l a b l e .
The
f o l l o w i n g figures g i v e some i n d i c a t i o n of t h e p o s i t i o n a t t h e e n d of M a r c h . N o r t h
R h i n e Province, 470,000; H a m b u r g 130,000; Cologne 35,000; H a n o v e r 20,000;
D u i s b u r g 2 0 , 0 0 0 ; W u p p e r t a l 20,000. T r a d e u n i o n s a r e n o t a l l o w e d t o i n d u l g e
in p o l i t i c a l a c t i v i t i e s , n o r h a v e t h e y m u c h s a y i n h o u r s of w o r k o r w a g e s w h i c h
h a v e l a r g e l y been fixed b y C o n t r o l C o u n c i l l e g i s l a t i o n . T h i s leaves l i t t l e scope
except for d i s c u s s i o n o n c o n d i t i o n s of w o r k a n d d e n a z i f i c a t i o n of i n d u s t r y . T h e
i m m e d i a t e m a j o r i s s u e i s o r g a n i s a t i o n a l , w h e t h e r u n i o n s s h o u l d be o r g a n i s e d
c e n t r a l l y or on a b a s i s o f a u t o n o m o u s u n i o n s . T h e T . U . C . d e l e g a t i o n w h i c h
v i s i t e d G e r m a n y i n N o v e m b e r r e c o m m e n d e d i n f a v o u r of a u t o n o m o u s u n i o n s
so a s t o g i v e t h e r a n k a n d file t h e i r p r o p e r s a y a n d p r e v e n t t h e m b e i n g r u n f r o m
above. T h e G e r m a n w o r k e r s o n t h e w h o l e , h o w e v e r , seem t o f a v o u r c e n t r a l i s a t i o n
as g i v i n g t h e m i n c r e a s e d s t r e n g t h . A t t h e first z o n a l t r a d e u n i o n c o n f e r e n c e
held in H a n o v e r on t h e 12th M a r c h it w a s decided to establish four provisional
o r g a n i s i n g c o m m i t t e e s a n d also a z o n a l o r g a n i s i n g c o m m i t t e e . T h i s w a s r o u g h l y
on t h e l i n e s r e c o m m e n d e d by t h e W o r l d F e d e r a t i o n of T r a d e U n i o n s . T h e l a r g e ­
scale u n e m p l o y m e n t w h i c h is likely t o r e s u l t f r o m t h e level of i n d u s t r y p l a n m u s t
be e x p e c t e d to h a v e a p o w e r f u l effect on t r a d e u n i o n o p i n i o n .
Economic
Background.
30. T o m e e t o c c u p a t i o n a l a n d m i n i m u m c i v i l i a n r e q u i r e m e n t s t h e f o l l o w i n g
m a i n i n d u s t r i e s w e r e p u t i n t o o p e r a t i o n w h e n t h e r e o r g a n i s a t i o n of t h e e s s e n t i a l
i n d u s t r i e s b e g a n : steel, m i n i n g s u p p l i e s , a g r i c u l t u r a l m a c h i n e r y , t e x t i l e s ,
b u i l d i n g m a t e r i a l s , chemicals ( f e r t i l i s e r s , soap, p h a r m a c e u t i c a l
products,
v a c c i n e s ) . A p l a n k n o w n as t h e S p a r t a n p l a n w a s d e v i s e d t o c o - o r d i n a t e
e s s e n t i a l s u p p l i e s of coal, iron, steel, t i m b e r a n d p o w e r , a l l i n s h o r t s u p p l y , t o
b a s i c i n d u s t r i e s . T h e t a r g e t s set u n d e r t h i s p l a n a r e i n e v i t a b l y low. T h e q u o t a
of steel o u t p u t p l a n n e d for t h e second q u a r t e r of t h i s y e a r is n o m o r e t h a n
400,000 tons, w h i c h i s only a f r a c t i o n of t h a t p e r m i t t e d b y t h e level of i n d u s t r y
p l a n . Insufficient steel i n i t s t u r n affects t h e coal o u t p u t f o r w h i c h b o t h t h e o t h e r
G e r m a n industries a n d the E u r o p e a n countries are desperately competing.
The
g e n e r a l s i t u a t i o n is b a d . T h e o v e r - a l l i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n of t h e zone a t t h e
e n d of F e b r u a r y w a s e s t i m a t e d a t 15 p e r cent, of t h e p r e - w a r level.
Progress
i n r e s t o r i n g i n d u s t r i a l o u t p u t is l i m i t e d by s h o r t a g e of t r a n s p o r t , steel, coal a n d
other raw materials.
G i v e n t h e low i n d u s t r i a l o u t p u t , u n e m p l o y m e n t i s a t
p r e s e n t s u r p r i s i n g l y small. T h e l a t e s t figures show o n l y 360,000 u n e m p l o y e d ,
w i t h 275,000 u n e m p l o y a b l e . T h e y m a y , however, c o n c e a l some h i d d e n u n e m ­
p l o y m e n t as w o r k e r s s t i l l hold c o n s i d e r a b l e s a v i n g s a n d m a y n o t t r o u b l e t o look
f o r w o r k w h i l e t h e r e is so l i t t l e t o b u y f o r t h e i r w a g e s .
3 1 . T h e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n of t h e R u h r m i n e s i s c o n d u c t e d by a B r i t i s h
o r g a n i s a t i o n n a m e d t h e N o r t h G e r m a n Coal C o n t r o l . T h e f o r m e r o w n e r s h a v e
been e x p r o p r i a t e d a n d t h e o w n e r s h i p is held for t h e t i m e b e i n g b y B r i t i s h
c u s t o d i a n s . B e f o r e t h e r e c e n t c u t i n t h e food r a t i o n , p r o d u c t i o n of coal h a d been
r a i s e d to a b o u t 4 0 p e r cent, of p r e - w a r , o r over a m i l l i o n t o n s a week. 2 2 5 , 0 0 0 m e n
w e r e w o r k i n g i n t h e R u h r m i n e s i n F e b r u a r y , 1946, a n d g r e a t , t h o u g h n o t very
successful, efforts w e r e b e i n g m a d e to i n c r e a s e t h e m a n - p o w e r i n t h e i n d u s t r y .
T h e i m m e d i a t e p r o s p e c t is n o t g o o d for t h e f o l l o w i n g r e a s o n s : t h e m i n e r s a n d
t h e i r families a r e u n d e r f e d , t h e r e is s h o r t a g e of t r a i n e d m a n - p o w e r , m a n y
e x p e r i e n c e d m a n a g e r s a n d f o r e m e n h a v e been r e m o v e d o n a c c o u n t of t h e i r N a z i
s y m p a t h i e s , t h e m a c h i n e r y n e e d s r e n o v a t i o n , b u t t h i s is r e n d e r e d i m p o s s i b l e by
t h e g o v e r n m e n t a l d i r e c t i v e w h i c h gives t h e lion's s h a r e of t h e p r o d u c t i o n t o
export.
32. Of even g r e a t e r i m m e d i a t e i m p o r t a n c e t h a n coal is t h e p r o b l e m of
food. H e r e t h e s i t u a t i o n is n o t h i n g less t h a n a l a r m i n g . I t h a s a l r e a d y been
r e f e r r e d t o in S e c t i o n I I of t h i s A n n e x . T h e a c u t e n e s s of t h i s p r o b l e m m a y be
j u d g e d by t h e f a c t t h a t o u r p r e s e n t efforts a r e d i r e c t e d n o t t o i n c r e a s i n g t h e
1,000 calorie r a t i o n , b u t t o p r e v e n t i n g i t s f u r t h e r r e d u c t i o n . B u t t h i s s c a l e of
n o u r i s h m e n t m e a n s slow s t a r v a t i o n a n d , if i t is n o t soon i m p r o v e d , t h e conse­
quences, b o t h p h y s i c a l a n d m o r a l , w i l l b e i n c a l c u l a b l e .
33. A f u r t h e r p r o b l e m t h a t deserves m e n t i o n is t h a t of h o u s i n g . I t s s e r i o u s ­
ness needs n o e m p h a s i s a n d w i l l b e i n c r e a s e d by t h e f u r t h e r influx of r e f u g e e s
from P o l a n d , of w h o m 1^ m i l l i o n a r e t o be e x p e c t e d i n t h e zone d u r i n g t h e c o m i n g
months.
Occupation
Forces.
34. I t is h o p e d t h a t by t h e e n d of t h e y e a r t h e n u m b e r s of t h e B r i t i s h forces
of o c c u p a t i o n , i n c l u d i n g t h e A i r F o r c e , w i l l be r e d u c e d t o a b o u t 137,000. T h e y
w i l l be s u p p l e m e n t e d by t w o B e l g i a n divisions, a n d i t is possible t h a t some of
t h e o t h e r w e s t e r n A l l i e s m a y m a k e a c o n t r i b u t i o n . T h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of t h e
B r i t i s h E l e m e n t of t h e C o n t r o l C o u n c i l i s t o be r e d u c e d to 20,000 b y t h e e n d of
the year.
Occupation
Costs.
35. I n h i s b u d g e t speech t h e C h a n c e l l o r of t h e E x c h e q u e r g a v e a figure of
£ 8 0 m i l l i o n a s t h e e s t i m a t e for t h e cost of civil a d m i n i s t r a t i o n a n d food i m p o r t s .
T h i s is a n e t t figure a f t e r d e d u c t i n g t h e p r o s p e c t i v e p r o c e e d s of e x p o r t s . N o r
does i t i n c l u d e t h e cost of t h e m i l i t a r y e s t a b l i s h m e n t . T h e p r e s e n t figure f o r
t h e p a y a n d a l l o w a n c e s of t h e t r o o p s of o c c u p a t i o n is a b o u t £ 6 5 m i l l i o n a y e a r .
T h i s will, of course, be r e d u c e d as the n u m b e r s of t h e o c c u p y i n g forces a r e b r o u g h t
d o w n . T h e m o s t s e r i o u s e x p e n d i t u r e is o n food i m p o r t s , a s for the- g r e a t e r p a r t
t h e y a r e p a i d for i n d o l l a r s . T h e P o t s d a m A g r e e m e n t p r o v i d e d t h a t i m p o r t s
s h o u l d c o n s t i t u t e a first c h a r g e on e x p o r t s , b u t i t is u n l i k e l y t h a t a l l i m p o r t s
w i l l be covered in t h i s w a y for a c o n s i d e r a b l e t i m e . D i s c u s s i o n s a r e p r o c e e d i n g
w i t h o u r A l l i e s w i t h a view t o m o d i f y i n g t h e p r e s e n t a r r a n g e m e n t s w h i c h w e i g i i
p a r t i c u l a r l y h e a v i l y o n t h e B r i t i s h zone.
B . — United
States
Zone.
Administration
and
Politics.
36. T h e A m e r i c a n s a p p r o a c h e d t h e p r o b l e m f r o m t h e s t a n d p o i n t of g e t t i n g ^
q u i c k r e s u l t s . T h e i r a i m w a s t w o f o l d : first, t o " l i q u i d a t e " t h e w a r b y d r a s t i c
i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of t h e P o t s d a m p r o v i s i o n s i n r e s p e c t of d e n a z i f i c a t i o n , d i s a r m a ­
m e n t , d e m i l i t a r i s a t i o n a n d d e - i n d u s t r i a l i s a t i o n ; secondly, t o t r a n s f e r t o t h e
G e r m a n s a s q u i c k l y as p r a c t i c a b l e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r a d m i n i s t r a t i o n b o t h i n t h e
zone a n d a t t h e c e n t r e . T h e G e r m a n s w o u l d be e n c o u r a g e d to w o r k for r e c o v e r y
a n d t o e s t a b l i s h a d e m o c r a t i c G e r m a n y w i t h a p e a c e f u l economy, sufficient t o
e n s u r e a n a v e r a g e E u r o p e a n s t a n d a r d of l i v i n g .
37. T h e k i n d of t i m e - t a b l e t h e A m e r i c a n s a p p e a r t o h a v e set t h e m s e l v e s
w a s as follows : —
E l e c t i o n s a t t h e lowest level ( J a n u a r y , 1946).
E l e c t i o n s a t r u r a l a n d m u n i c i p a l d i s t r i c t levels ( M a r c h a n d M a y , 1 9 4 6 ) .
" L a n d " elections for t h e t h r e e S t a t e l e g i s l a t u r e s : B a v a r i a , H e s s e ,
W u r t e m b e r g - B a d e n (October, 1946).
C e n t r a l G e r m a n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s for economic p u r p o s e s to be e s t a b l i s h e d
immediately after Potsdam.
T h e second p h a s e of c o n t r o l , t h a t of " g r a d u a l recovery," t o s t a r t f r o m
t h e 2 n d F e b r u a r y , 1946, t h e d a t e on w h i c h t h e r e p a r a t i o n p l a n w a s to be
determined in accordance w i t h the P o t s d a m Agreement.
T r a n s f e r f r o m m i l i t a r y to c i v i l i a n c o n t r o l t o t a k e p l a c e on t h e 1st J u n e .
1946.
M a i n t a s k s of o c c u p a t i o n to be finished by t h e e n d of 1947.
Zonal
f r o n t i e r s c o u l d be o p e n e d a n d a G e r m a n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n set u p .
I n 1948
t h e o c c u p a t i o n a l forces could b e w i t h d r a w n a n d by t h e e n d of t h a t y e a r t h e
p e a c e c o u l d be s i g n e d . T h e m i l i t a r y p h a s e w o u l d b e over.
C o n t r o l w o u l d be e x e r c i s e d for a f u r t h e r t e n t o fifteen y e a r s . G e r m a n y
w o u l d t h e n j o i n T7.N.O.
38. T h i s g e n e r a l a p p r o a c h , b a s e d on t h e p r i n c i p l e of i n d i r e c t c o n t r o l a n d a
relatively short occupation, h a d numerous attractions. Germany's w a r potential
w o u l d be d r a s t i c a l l y e l i m i n a t e d ; t h e ' ' boys ' ' could be g o t h o m e q u i c k l y ; i n d i r e c t
c o n t r o l w o u l d p e r m i t of economy i n A m e r i c a n m a n - p o w e r ; G e r m a n y w o u l d be
self-supporting at an early date.
39. T h i n g s h a v e n o t w o r k e d o u t a l t o g e t h e r a s t h e A m e r i c a n s h o p e d .
At
t h e c e n t r e t h e i r h o p e of t r a n s f e r r i n g r e s p o n s i b i l i t y to t h e G e r m a n s f o r economic
m a t t e r s h a s been blocked by t h e r e f u s a l of t h e F r e n c h t o a g r e e to c e n t r a l G e r m a n
a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s . I n t h e zone t h e A m e r i c a n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , t h o u g h n o t w i t h o u t
m e r i t s — i t h a s s h o w n r e m a r k a b l e efficiency, for e x a m p l e , i n r e s t a r t i n g p u b l i c
services a n d r e p a i r i n g t h e t r a n s p o r t system-—has o n t h e w h o l e been d i s a p p o i n t i n g .
T h i s is p e r h a p s d u e f u n d a m e n t a l l y t o t h e f a c t t h a t t h e a v e r a g e A m e r i c a n d o e s
n o t belong i n E u r o p e a n d is o n l y a n x i o u s to g e t h o m e .
In this the American
soldiers, w h e t h e r of t h e forces of o c c u p a t i o n or of m i l i t a r y g o v e r n m e n t , h a v e been
all too successful, a n d c o n t i n u i t y of a d m i n i s t r a t i o n h a s been w o e f u l l y h a m p e r e d
by p e r p e t u a l c h a n g e s in p e r s o n n e l d u e to d e m o b i l i s a t i o n . T h e h o p e d - f o r t r a n s f e r
f r o m m i l i t a r y t o c i v i l i a n c o n t r o l h a s , moreover, been blocked a t W a s h i n g t o n by t h e
r e f u s a l of t h e S t a t e D e p a r t m e n t t o t a k e over t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y .
40. T h e r e h a v e been s e n s a t i o n a l s t o r i e s of m i s b e h a v i o u r by t h e G - L s ( t h e
s t e r n e s t c r i t i c s b e i n g t h e A m e r i c a n h o m e p r e s s ) a n d , t h o u g h these a r e n o d o u b t
m u c h e x a g g e r a t e d , t h e f a c t r e m a i n s t h a t t h e G . I . s do n o t seem to h a v e e a r n e d
g r e a t r e s p e c t f r o m t h e p o p u l a t i o n . M u c h t r o u b l e , too, h a s been c a u s e d b y t h e r i g i d
a n d r u t h l e s s m a n n e r i n w h i c h d e n a z i f i c a t i o n h a s b e e n c a r r i e d o u t . N o c a r e seems
t o h a v e been e x e r c i s e d to a v o i d t h e c r e a t i o n of a n u n m a n a g e a b l e b o d y of
discontents.
4 1 . B u t i t w o u l d be a m i s t a k e t o p a i n t too b l a c k a p i c t u r e . T h e A m e r i c a n s
have, i n f a c t , succeeded i n t h e i r m a i n p u r p o s e of s e t t i n g u p G e r m a n a u t h o r i t i e s
a n d h a n d i n g over to t h e m t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y for a d m i n i s t r a t i o n .
I n this they
h a v e g o n e f u r t h e r t h a n a n y of t h e i r p a r t n e r s , for t h e t h r e e S t a t e s i n t h e A m e r i c a n
zone h a v e n o w G o v e r n m e n t s of t h e i r o w n . T h e s e a r e , so f a r , n o m i n a t e d b o d i e s
a n d , i n r e s p e c t of t h e p o p u l a t i o n , h a v e a l m o s t d i c t a t o r i a l p o w e r s . I n d u e c o u r s e
t h e y w i l l be r e p l a c e d by elected r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s .
42. A s r e g a r d s e l e c t i o n s , t n e A m e r i c a n s h a v e been m a k i n g t h e p a c e . T h o s e
a t t h e l o w e s t level w e r e h e l d i n J a n u a r y , d e s p i t e G e r m a n r e q u e s t s for delay. T h e
r e s u l t s followed very closely t h e p r e v a l e n t c e n t r a l E u r o p e a n t r e n d . T h e C h r i s t i a n
S o c i a l i s t s a n d n o n - p a r t y m e m b e r s took t h e l e a d . T h e S o c i a l D e m o c r a t s c a m e n e x t ,
a n d the Communists were a poor third.
4 3 . T h e p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s i n t h e A m e r i c a n zone a r e less influenced b y w h a t
h a p p e n s i n B e r l i n . L o c a l l o y a l t i e s a n d t r a d i t i o n s find t h e i r e x t r e m e e x p r e s s i o n
i n B a v a r i a n s e p a r a t i s t a n d m o n a r c h i s t m o v e m e n t s , alleged t o receive some F r e n c h
support.
T h e t h r e e m a i n p a r t i e s , h o w e v e r , all f a v o u r p o l i t i c a l u n i t y .
H e r r H o e g n e r , t h e S . P . D . P r i m e M i n i s t e r of B a v a r i a , does n o t t a k e so s t r o n g a n
a n t i - f u s i o n line a s H e r r S c h u m a c h e r i n o u r zone. H e w o u l d a c c e p t fusion w i t h
t h e C o m m u n i s t s if t h e r e w a s a secret b a l l o t . K a i s e r , C h a i r m a n of t h e B e r l i n
C o m m i t t e e of t h e C h r i s t i a n D e m o c r a t i c U n i o n , s t a t e d , a f t e r a r e c e n t v i s i t to t h e
U n i t e d S t a t e s a n d B r i t i s h zones, t h a t m a n y C h r i s t i a n S o c i a l i s t s t h e r e seemed to
r e g a r d t h e Soviet zone a n d B e r l i n as lost to c o m m u n i s m , a n d t h a t t h e y w e r e
a d o p t i n g too r e a c t i o n a r y a l i n e . T h e C h u r c h influence i n B a v a r i a a n d i n S o u t h
G e r m a n y is also a n i m p o r t a n t p o l i t i c a l f a c t o r .
Economic
Background.
44. T h e A m e r i c a n zone is f a r less i n d u s t r i a l i s e d t h a n t h e
theless, i t c o n t a i n s some i m p o r t a n t i n d u s t r i e s , i n c l u d i n g t h e
I.G. Farben.
T h e b r e a k i n g u p of l a r g e i n d u s t r i a l complexes
m a j o r A m e r i c a n o b j e c t i v e a n d , a f t e r t h i s h a d been c o n s e c r a t e d
A g r e e m e n t , t h e A m e r i c a n a u t h o r i t i e s t o o k over d i r e c t c o n t r o l
w h o s e a s s e t s w e r e v e s t e d i n t h e C o n t r o l Council.
British. Never­
h e a d q u a r t e r s of
is e v e r y w h e r e a
by t h e P o t s d a m
of I . G . F a r b e n ,
4 5 . I n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y i n t h e zone is a t a low ebb, for t h e s a m e r e a s o n s a s
i m p e d e i t s r e s t o r a t i o n i n t h e B r i t i s h zone. I n d u s t r i a l o u t p u t h a s r e c e n t l y been
e s t i m a t e d a t only fifteen p e r cent, of t h e p r e - w a r level, t h e s a m e p e r c e n t a g e a s in
t h e B r i t i s h zone. L i t t l e coal is p r o d u c e d i n t h e A m e r i c a n zone, w h i c h d e p e n d s
o n imports from the R u h r .
46. T h e food s i t u a t i o n c a n be j u d g e d by t h e f a c t t h a t t h e n o r m a l r a t i o n h a s
j u s t been r e d u c e d t o 1,275 c a l o r i e s . B u t food off t h e r a t i o n is m o r e easily o b t a i n e d
i n t h e A m e r i c a n zone, w h i c h for t h i s r e a s o n is p r o b a b l y t h e best fed of all. B e f o r e
t h e w a r t h e zone w a s s a i d t o be e i g h t y p e r c e n t , s e l f - s u p p o r t i n g . B u t food p r o d u c ­
t i o n h a s suffered a s a r e s u l t of t h e l a c k of f e r t i l i s e r s a n d a g r i c u l t u r a l m a c h i n e r y
a n d of t h e t r a n s f e r f r o m a r a b l e to p a s t u r e l a n d . T h e zone, m o r e o v e r , h a s t o
s u p p o r t i t s q u o t a of r e f u g e e s , a p r o b l e m w h i c h w i l l i n c r e a s e a s t h e t r a n s f e r p l a n
i s i m p l e m e n t e d . O n e a n d t h r e e - q u a r t e r m i l l i o n a r e t o be t r a n s f e r r e d i n t o t h e zone
f r o m C z e c h o s l o v a k i a as w e l l a s 300,000 f r o m H u n g a r y .
Occupation
Forces.
47. A r e c e n t U n i t e d S t a t e s p r e s s r e p o r t g a v e a n e s t i m a t e of 306,000 t r o o p s
i n G e r m a n y a n d A u s t r i a i n J u n e , to be r e d u c e d to 100,000 i n G e r m a n y a l o n e by
t h e e n d of t h e y e a r . T h e first figure w o u l d fit in w i t h o t h e r s t a t e m e n t s m a d e .
T h e e n d of t h e y e a r figure does not, however, a g r e e w i t h a s t a t e m e n t m a d e by
G e n e r a l M c N a r n e y , t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s C o m m a n d e r - i n - C h i e f , w h o p u t i t a t 300,000.
W h a t i s c e r t a i n is t h a t , a l l g o i n g well, l a r g e - s c a l e w i t h d r a w a l s a t a n e a r l y d a t e
a r e p l a n n e d . T h e s e forces w o u l d be r e p l a c e d b y a s p e c i a l l y r e c r u i t e d A m e r i c a n
mobile " o c c u p a t i o n a l constabulary."
T h e l o c a t i o n i n G e r m a n y of a s u p e r B o m b e r F o r t r e s s F o r c e h a s also been s u g g e s t e d . I t is p r o b a b l e t h a t t h e U n i t e d
S t a t e s G o v e r n m e n t h a v e n o firm p l a n s f o r t h e l e n g t h of t i m e t h e y w i l l c o n t i n u e
t o m a i n t a i n a n a r m y of o c c u p a t i o n i n G e r m a n y . A t t h e s t a r t t h e y c e r t a i n l y
c o n t e m p l a t e d a s h o r t o c c u p a t i o n of a b o u t a c o u p l e of y e a r s . B u t l a t e l y t h e y seem
t o b e b e c o m i n g i m p r e s s e d w i t h t h e n e e d t o m a i n t a i n t h e i r forces if t h e y w i s h t o
e x e r c i s e t h e i r p r o p e r influence in E u r o p e a n policy.
I n a recent speech the
A s s i s t a n t S e c r e t a r y of S t a t e a t t h e S t a t e D e p a r t m e n t d e c l a r e d t h a t A m e r i c a w a s
d e t e r m i n e d t o r e t a i n e n o u g h t r o o p s i n G e r m a n y to see t h a t G e r m a n y w a s r e d u c e d
to a p r e d o m i n a n t l y agricultural State.
C . — T h e French
Zone.
Administration
and
politics.
4 8 . T h e F r e n c h p o s i t i o n in G e r m a n y i s a difficult one. T h e i r d e f e a t i n 1940,
t h e i r s m a l l c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e final v i c t o r y , t h e i r o w n i n t e r n a l p e r p l e x i t i e s a n d
their exclusion from the international conferences in w h i c h policy towards
G e r m a n y h a s been decided, h a v e i n e v i t a b l y p l a c e d t h e m i n a n i n f e r i o r p o s i t i o n .
T h e i r zone of o c c u p a t i o n b e a r s all t h e t r a c e s of h a v i n g been a n a f t e r t h o u g h t .
It
w a s c a r v e d o u t of t h e B r i t i s h a n d U n i t e d S t a t e s zones a n d is s h a p e d l i k e a figure
of e i g h t . T h e b o u n d a r y goes t h r o u g h t h e p r o v i n c e s of W u r t e m b e r g a n d B a d e n ,
l e a v i n g t h e c a p i t a l s of b o t h i n t h e A m e r i c a n z o n e . D e s u l t o r y n e g o t i a t i o n s have­
for some t i m e been in p r o g r e s s w i t h t h e A m e r i c a n s for i t s r e c t i f i c a t i o n .
Except
for t h e S a a r t h e zone is l a r g e l y poor, a g r i c u l t u r a l t e r r i t o r y .
49. D e s p i t e t h e i r w e a k i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o s i t i o n t h e F r e n c h h a v e m a d e
s t r e n u o u s efforts t o i m p r e s s u p o n t h e G e r m a n s u n d e r t h e i r c o n t r o l t h e g l o r y a n d
m a g n a n i m i t y of F r a n c e , t o reconcile t h e m t o F r e n c h c o n t r o l b y offering t h e m t h e
c o - o p e r a t i o n of F r a n c e a n d t o a t t a c h t h e m to t h e i d e a s of w e s t e r n a n d F r e n c h
c i v i l i s a t i o n . B u t these efforts h a v e been p r e j u d i c e d by a c e r t a i n inefficiency of
a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , a c e r t a i n i n s e c u r i t y i n d u c e d by r e q u i s i t i o n i n g of food a n d
p r o p e r t y , a n d a g e n e r a l t e n d e n c y to e x p l o i t t h e r e s o u r c e s of t h e F r e n c h zone for
t h e benefit of F r a n c e . T h e s e d e r i v e f r o m t h e n a t u r a l d e s i r e of t h e F r e n c h t r o o p s
to c o m p e n s a t e themselves a n d to g e t t h e i r o w n b a c k for t h e l o n g sufferings
inflicted by t h e G e r m a n s on F r a n c e . I n t h i s t h e r e is a m a r k e d difference o f
outlook b e t w e e n t h e forces of o c c u p a t i o n a n d t h e p a t e r n a l i s m of m i l i t a r y g o v e r n ­
m e n t officers.
50. T h e h e a d q u a r t e r s of t h e F r e n c h m i l i t a r y g o v e r n m e n t a n d of t h e forces
of o c c u p a t i o n a r e located i n B a d e n - B a d e n . M i l i t a r y g o v e r n m e n t , w h i c h h a s been
e x t e n s i v e l y c i v i l i a n i s e d , c o n s i s t s of a c e n t r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n w h i c h receives i t s
d i r e c t i v e s f r o m P a r i s r a t h e r t h a n B e r l i n . I n P a r i s a s p e c i a l c o n t r o l office h a s
been set u p , a s i n L o n d o n , t o d e a l w i t h t h e affairs of G e r m a n y a n d A u s t r i a .
T h e zone is d i v i d e d i n t o five d i s t r i c t s , e a c h u n d e r a " d e l e g u e s u p e r i e u r . "
A d m i n i s t r a t i o n i n t h e d i s t r i c t s is b a s e d l a r g e l y on t h e p r i n c i p l e of i n d i r e c t
c o n t r o l , a n d m i l i t a r y g o v e r n m e n t w o r k s t h r o u g h a r e c o n s t i t u t e d G e r m a n civil
service. T h e i n t e n t i o n is t o s e t u p G e r m a n civil d i r e c t o r a t e s i n e a c h d i s t r i c t a n d ,
w h e n t h e s e find t h e i r feet, to w i t h d r a w m i l i t a r y g o v e r n m e n t . T h e r e is n o c e n t r a l
G e r m a n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n for t h e zone.
5 1 . T h e t h r e e m a i n p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s h a v e been a u t h o r i s e d a n d t h e F r e n c h
i n t e n d to s t a r t h o l d i n g elections n e x t S e p t e m b e r . H i t h e r t o p o l i t i c a l a c t i v i t i e s ,
a s a l s o t r a d e u n i o n d e v e l o p m e n t , seem t o h a v e been f a i r l y r i g i d l y r e s t r i c t e d t o
a local c h a r a c t e r a n d t h e r e - e s t a b l i s h m e n t of p o l i t i c a l c o n t a c t s o n a n a l l - G e r m a n
basis is discouraged.
T h e F r e n c h h o l d s t r o n g l y t o t h e c o n c e p t i o n of decen­
tralisation.
5 2 . T h e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n of t h e F r e n c h z o n e h a s f r e q u e n t l y been c r i t i c i s e d
a s inefficient by t h e G e r m a n s . B u t i t h a s c o m e u n d e r even s t r o n g e r c r i t i c i s m
f r o m l e f t - w i n g circles i n F r a n c e w h o c o m p l a i n t h a t t h e F r e n c h p e r s o n n e l a r e
l a r g e l y d r a w n f r o m V i c h y elements. T h e r e h a v e also been some r a t h e r s c a t h i n g
c o m m e n t s on t h e n u m b e r of p e r s o n n e l e m p l o y e d .
Economic
Background.
53. T h e French a t t a c h very great i m p o r t a n c e to the S a a r which they wish
t o k e e p u n d e r p e r m a n e n t o c c u p a t i o n a n d to i n c o r p o r a t e i n t h e F r e n c h c u s t o m s
a n d m o n e t a r y u n i t . T h e y also w i s h for t h e o w n e r s h i p of t h e m i n e s t o r e v e r t t o
F r a n c e . A s an immediate measure they have asked t h a t the t e r r i t o r y should,
l i k e t h e a r e a s t r a n s f e r r e d a t P o t s d a m t o P o l i s h a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , be t r a n s f e r r e d
to F r e n c h a d m i n i s t r a t i o n a n d removed f r o m t h e c o m p e t e n c e of t h e A l l i e d C o n t r o l
A u t h o r i t y i n B e r l i n . M e a n w h i l e they seem t o h a v e t a k e n e n e r g e t i c s t e p s t o
r e - a c t i v a t e t h e m i n e s w h i c h a r e n o w p r o d u c i n g a t a b o u t fifty p e r cent, of t h e
p r e - w a r o u t p u t . I n 1 9 3 8 a n n u a l p r o d u c t i o n w a s r u n n i n g at" n e a r l y 14 m i l l i o n
tons.
5 4 . B e f o r e t h e w a r t h e zone w a s s a i d t o be e i g h t y p e r cent, self-sufficient.
T h e food s i t u a t i o n t o - d a y is h o w e v e r v e r y b a d . T h e official " n o r m a l c o n s u m e r s "
r a t i o n i n M a r c h w a s 1,075 calories, b u t a q u a d r i p a r t i t e c o m m i s s i o n r e c e n t l y
r e p o r t e d t h a t i n c e r t a i n a r e a s i t w a s n o t m u c h above 800 calories. T h e r e a r e
s p e c i a l r e a s o n s for t h i s i n a d d i t i o n to t h o s e w h i c h h a v e c a u s e d t h e d e t e r i o r a t i o n
i n t h e B r i t i s h a n d A m e r i c a n zones. I n t h e first p l a c e t h e F r e n c h o c c u p a t i o n
forces live l a r g e l y off t h e l a n d . Secondly, l a r g e e x p o r t s w e r e m a d e t o F r a n c e ,
p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e e a r l y p h a s e of t h e o c c u p a t i o n .
Occupation
Forces.
5 5 . I t is believed t h a t F r e n c h o c c u p a t i o n forces i n G e r m a n y h a v e r e c e n t l y
b e e n d r a s t i c a l l y r e d u c e d . T h e y a r e n o w e s t i m a t e d a t b e t w e e n 60,000 a n d 100,000.
A t o n e t i m e t h e figure w a s p u t a s h i g h a s 230,000. F r e n c h officers, officials a n d
N.C.O.S are entitled to bring their wives and families w i t h them to the F r e n c h
zone
T h i s t h e y a p p e a r t o h a v e d o n e on a l a r g e scale.
D.—Soviet
Zone.
and
politics.
A dministration
56. T h e first r e p o r t s f r o m t h e Soviet zone w e r e b l a c k : f a m i n e , d i s e a s e ,
d i s o r d e r , m a s s r e m o v a l s of e q u i p m e n t , m a c h i n e r y , l i v e s t o c k , r a i l s a n d even of
p e o p l e . T h e G e r m a n p o p u l a t i o n w a s terrified, a n d e v e r y t h i n g seemed t o h a v e
t u r n e d o u t j u s t a s D r . Goebbels h a d p r e d i c t e d . W a r h a d come h o m e t o r o o s t
w i t h a vengeance.
C o n d i t i o n s i n t h e zone d u r i n g t h e first p e r i o d , w i t h t h e
e x c e p t i o n p e r h a p s of S a x o n y a n d T h u r i n g i a , w e r e , in f a c t , a p p a l l i n g . I n F r a n k ­
f u r t on t h e O d e r t h e S o v i e t - i n s t a l l e d b u r g o m a s t e r t o l d m e m b e r s of t h e first
c o n d u c t e d p r e s s t o u r t h a t 12,000 p e o p l e , o n e - s i x t h of t h e p o p u l a t i o n , h a d d i e d
i n t h e first s i x m o n t h s f r o m s h e e r h u n g e r .
T h i s s t a t e m e n t w a s l a t e r officially
a m e n d e d to 12,000 d e a t h s b y all causes. I n t h e first flush of v i c t o r y a n d a f t e r
t h e r e c o n q u e s t of t h e i r o w n d e v a s t a t e d a r e a s , t h e R e d A r m y w e r e n o t i n t h e m o o d
to r e s p e c t p e r s o n s or p r o p e r t y . T o h a v e h e l d t h e m b a c k w o u l d p r o b a b l y i n a n y
case h a v e been i m p o s s i b l e . B u t i t w a s above a l l t h e S o v i e t " i r o n c u r t a i n " p o l i c y
w h i c h g a v e p l a u s i b i l i t y to t h e w i l d e s t r u m o u r s . I t w a s f e l t t h a t t h e r e m u s t be
s o m e t h i n g to h i d e .
57. W h e n , t h e r e f o r e , i n J a n u a r y , t h e first c a r e f u l l y c o n d u c t e d j o u r n a l i s t s
w e r e allowed to v i s i t t h e zone, i t c a m e a s a g e n e r a l s u r p r i s e t h a t c o n d i t i o n s i n
S a x o n y a n d T h u r i n g i a , if n o t i n B r a n d e n b u r g , t h o u g h f a r f r o m good, w e r e m u c h
t h e same a s i n t h e o t h e r zones. T h e r e w e r e s e v e r a l r e p o r t s of a " m a z e of
s m o k i n g c h i m n e y s t a c k s , " of c o n d i t i o n s t h a t c o m p a r e d v e r y f a v o u r a b l y w i t h t h o s e
i n t h e P o l i s h a d m i n i s t e r e d t e r r i t o r i e s over t h e b o r d e r . T h e r e c a n be l i t t l e d o u b t
t h a t they were on t h e whole correct, a n d t h a t behind the " iron c u r t a i n , " lifted
on occasion t o s u i t R u s s i a n c o n v e n i e n c e , a p o s i t i v e p o l i c y w a s b e i n g p u r s u e d .
A d m i t t e d l y , r e o r g a n i s a t i o n w a s a c c o m p a n i e d b y some c o n f u s i o n a n d i n c o n ­
sistencies. I n t h e i r closed zone t h e R u s s i a n s w e r e e v i d e n t l y d i g g i n g t h e m s e l v e s
i n . T h e y w e r e n o t m e r e l y r u t h l e s s l y e r a d i c a t i n g a F a s c i s t o r d e r , b u t also e n e r ­
g e t i c a l l y c r e a t i n g a n e w o r d e r t o p u t i n i t s p l a c e , t h e n e w o r d e r b e i n g b a s e d on
a s i n g l e class, a s i n g l e p a r t y a n d a c o n t r o l l e d economic p a t t e r n .
58. I f t h e n e w o r d e r w a s to become l a s t i n g a n d r e a l , i t h a d t o be b u i l t
u p wherever possible on convinced a n d i n d o c t r i n a t e d G e r m a n Communists, t h o u g h
t i m e - s e r v e r s f r o m o t h e r G e r m a n p a r t i e s could p r o v i s i o n a l l y be u t i l i s e d . F u l l u s e
w a s a c c o r d i n g l y m a d e of t h o s e G e r m a n s w h o h a d b e e n t r a i n e d i n M o s c o w , a n d
i t h a s been c l a i m e d t h a t some 7,500 p i c k e d e x - W e h r m a c h t m e n f r o m t h e U . S . S . R .
w e r e r e t u r n e d t o G e r m a n y for t h i s p u r p o s e . T h e m e m b e r s of t h e F r e e G e r m a n
C o m m i t t e e i n M o s c o w w e r e a l l e g e d l y flown b a c k t o B e r l i n . W i d e p o w e r s a n d
privileges were a t a n early s t a g e given to these G e r m a n s , t h o u g h u l t i m a t e Soviet
c o n t r o l w a s a b s o l u t e . O r d e r s h a d t o be followed i m p l i c i t y . P o l i t i c a l d i s c i p l i n e
a n d obedience Avere t h e h i g h e s t q u a l i f i c a t i o n s .
T h e s t r e n g t h of t h i s a p p r o a c h ,
b a c k e d as i t w a s by intensified p r o p a g a n d a , l a n d r e f o r m a n d a p p e a l s t o n a t i o n a l
sentiment, lay in the fact t h a t it gave p u r p o s e a n d direction to forces which
h a d for long been r e p r e s s e d . W h a t b a d been d o n e i n " B r o w n " Avas n o w b e i n g
done in " R e d . "
59. A l l S o v i e t a c t i o n s i n G e r m a n y a r e b a s e d o n P o t s d a m , b u t , a s G e n e r a l
Sokolovsky, n o w C o m m a n d e r - i n - O h i e f , once p o i n t e d o u t , t h e r e a l l y e s s e n t i a l
f e a t u r e i n P o t s d a m f r o m h i s p o i n t of v i e w is " d e m o c r a t i s a t i o n . " O t h e r p r o b l e m s
s u c h a s r e p a r a t i o n a n d t h e s t a n d a r d of l i v i n g a r e by c o m p a r i s o n r e l a t i v e l y
u n i m p o r t a n t . T h e first t a s k w a s t o save G e r m a n y ' s p o l i t i c a l soul. Once t h i s
h a d been t h o r o u g h l y done i n t h e S o v i e t zone, i t c o u l d p e r h a p s be e x t e n d e d to
t h e w e s t e r n zones, w h e r e social a n d economic d i s i n t e g r a t i o n w o u l d p r o b a b l y h e l p
to expedite the process.
60. T h e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n of g o v e r n m e n t in t h e z o n e i s c a r r i e d o u t by G e r m a n s .
S t r i c t c o n t r o l i s e x e r c i s e d a n d t h e i n i t i a t i o n of all p o l i c y r e s t s solely w i t h t h e
S o v i e t a u t h o r i t i e s . G e r m a n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s h a v e b e e n set u p on a " L a n d " b a s i s .
C e n t r a l d e p a r t m e n t s h a v e also been i n e x i s t e n c e for some t i m e , a n d t h e p r o g r e s s
t o w a r d s a . z o n a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n is f u r t h e r a d v a n c e d t h a n i n o u r zone.
The
G e r m a n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p e r s o n n e l is n o m i n a l l y d r a w n f r o m m e m b e r s of t h e a n t i F a s c i s t U n i t e d F r o n t ( C o m m u n i s t s , Social D e m o c r a t s , C h r i s t i a n S o c i a l i s t s a n d
L i b e r a l D e m o c r a t s ) . Most of t h e key posts a r e i n f a c t h e l d by C o m m u n i s t s .
G e r m a n a d m i n i s t r a t o r s have both executive and legislative powers, but their
a u t h o r i t y is b a s e d on Soviet r a t h e r t h a n p o p u l a r s u p p o r t a n d no e l e c t i o n s h a v e
y e t been h e l d .
6 1 . A n t i - F a s c i s t p a r t i e s w e r e set u p i m m e d i a t e l y a f t e r t h e collapse, a n d
l a t e r t h e f o u r m a i n p a r t i e s of t h e U n i t e d F r o n t r e f e r r e d to above w e r e a l l o w e d
t o develop. T h e i d e a of B e r l i n a s t h e c a p i t a l of G e r m a n y a n d t h e h e a d q u a r t e r s
of G e r m a n p a r t i e s i n a l l zones w a s e n c o u r a g e d . T h e traffic of i d e a s w a s , h o w e v e r ,
t o be one w a y . B e r l i n v i e w s a n d M a r x i s m were t o be e x p o r t e d a n d d u m p e d o n
t h e w e s t e r n p o l i t i c a l m a r k e t , b u t bourgeois d e m o c r a t i c s e n t i m e n t s w e r e n o t t o
be i m p o r t e d i n e x c h a n g e . W h e n elections a r e h e l d i t is likely t h a t t h e U n i t e d
F r o n t w i l l go t o t h e poles a s a s i n g l e list, t h o u g h t h e L i b e r a l p a r t i e s w i l l p e r h a p s
be a l l o w e d t o p a r t i c i p a t e s e p a r a t e l y i n o r d e r to c r e a t e t h e illusion of d e m o c r a c y
a n d t o keep t h e d o o r i n t o t h e w e s t e r n zones o p e n . B u t t h e Social D e m o c r a t s
h a v e a l r e a d y been p r a c t i c a l l y e l i m i n a t e d a n d forced i n t o fusion w i t h t h e C o m ­
m u n i s t s a s a Socialist U n i t y P a r t y . T h a t there w a s no genuine and spontaneous
w i s h f o r f u s i o n c a n be seen f r o m t h e r e s i s t a n c e w i t h w h i c h i t h a s m e t i n B e r l i n
w h e r e t h e S o c i a l D e m o c r a t s c a n h o p e for s u p p o r t f r o m t h e W e s t e r n A l l i e s . B u t
in t h e Soviet zone itself t h e S o c i a l D e m o c r a t s h a v e s u c c u m b e d to t h e m i x t u r e
of b r i b e r y a n d i n t i m i d a t i o n t o w h i c h t h e y h a v e been i n t e n s i v e l y s u b j e c t e d .
62. I n a d d i t i o n to t h e p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s , the Soviet a u t h o r i t i e s m a k e g r e a t
use of t r a d e u n i o n s to f u r t h e r t h e i r i d e a s . T r a d e u n i o n a c t i v i t y o n a s t r i c t l y
Soviet m o d e l is sedulously fostered. T h e c o - o p e r a t i v e m o v e m e n t is also p u t t o
u s e a n d w i l l n o d o u b t be developed, a s elsewhere, as a m e a n s of e l i m i n a t i n g all
o p p o s i t i o n t h r o u g h t h e use of t h e r a t i o n c a r d .
6 3 . M e a n w h i l e p r o p a g a n d a t o G e r m a n s is b e i n g intensified.
Repeated
r u m o u r s a r e h e a r d t h a t once t h e S o c i a l i s t U n i t y P a r t y is set u p Soviet o c c u p a ­
t i o n forces w i l l be w i t h d r a w n . T h e r e h a v e been i n s p i r e d r u m o u r s t h a t G e r m a n
r e p a r a t i o n p l a n t w i l l n o t be removed. T h e r e is also t a l k of a possible r e v i s i o n
of G e r m a n y ' s e a s t e r n f r o n t i e r . T h e issue of G e r m a n p o l i t i c a l u n i t y h a s been
e x p l o i t e d to t h e full. T h e C o m m u n i s t s (and all t h e B e r l i n p a r t i e s ) h a v e s p o k e n
s t r o n g l y in f a v o u r of t h e R u h r for t h e G e r m a n w o r k e r . S e p a r a t i s t m o v e m e n t s
h a v e been a t t a c k e d . B e r l i n C o m m u n i s t s h a v e also to some e x t e n t e n c o u r a g e d
the p u b l i c t o c o m p a r e t h e r e l a t i v e o r d e r a n d p r o s p e r i t y i n t h e east w i t h t h e chaos
a n d f a m i n e i n t h e west.
Economic
Background.
64. A t a n e a r l y s t a g e of t h e i r o c c u p a t i o n t h e Soviet a u t h o r i t i e s c a r r i e d o u t
s w e e p i n g r e f o r m s of t h e b a n k i n g a n d i n s u r a n c e system. T h e e x i s t i n g firms w e r e
closed d o w n a n d n e w p u b l i c i n s t i t u t i o n s set u p i n t h e i r place. T h e r e is less
evidence t h a t t h e y h a v e t a k e n a n y s t e p s to n a t i o n a l i s e i n d u s t r i e s , t h o u g h n o
d o u b t m a n y of t h e old c a p t a i n s of i n d u s t r y have been e l i m i n a t e d as h a v e t h e l a r g e
l a n d o w n e r s . T h e s e a r e s a i d t o h a v e been d e p o r t e d to t h e i s l a n d of R i i g e n w h e r e
t h e y a r e set t o m e n i a l w o r k . I n i n d u s t r y t h e r e h a v e been v e r y e x t e n s i v e r e m o v a l s
of p l a n t w h i c h w i l l p r o b a b l y c o n t i n u e , b u t i t is d o u b t f u l w h e t h e r t h e y h a v e been
on t h e v a s t scale o r i g i n a l l y i m a g i n e d . T h e r e a r e i n f a c t i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t recon­
s t r u c t i o n is c o n t e m p l a t e d on t h e l i n e s of a p l a n n e d economy to be p u t to t h e u s e
of a Soviet five-year p l a n . I n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y i n S a x o n y h a s been e s t i m a t e d a t
35 p e r cent, of n o r m a l . B r i t i s h j o u r n a l i s t s w h o v i s i t e d D r e s d e n w e r e t o l d t h a t
some 12,000 f a c t o r i e s , l a r g e l y p r o d u c i n g c o n s u m e r goods, w e r e b a c k i n p r o d u c t i o n .
T h e r e is s a i d t o be sufficient b r o w n coal to e n a b l e t h e f a c t o r i e s to o p e r a t e , coal
b e i n g t h e m a i n b o t t l e n e c k b o t h i n t h e B r i t i s h a n d U n i t e d S t a t e s zones.
At
a n i n d u s t r i a l e x h i b i t i o n i n t h e Zeiss I k o n b u i l d i n g i n D r e s d e n in F e b r u a r y of
t h i s y e a r , some 3,000 e x h i b i t o r s w e r e s a i d to h a v e been r e p r e s e n t e d . T h e L e i p z i g
F a i r is to b e s t a r t e d a g a i n ; i t is significant t h a t t h e o r d e r to t h i s effect w a s
s i g n e d by M a r s h a l Z h u k o v a n d t h a t business m e n f r o m o t h e r zones a r e t o be
i n v i t e d to a t t e n d . T r a d e w i t h t h e w e s t e r n zones is p r a c t i c a l l y n o n - e x i s t e n t , b u t
on occasion s p e c i a l deals h a v e been allowed. T e x t i l e s to t h e v a l u e of £ 3 8 , 0 0 0
w e r e sent t o the B r i t i s h zone i n e x c h a n g e for fifteen l o r r i e s a n d 600 t y r e s . Some
e x c h a n g e o n a s i m i l a r b a r t e r b a s i s h a s t a k e n p l a c e with' t h e A m e r i c a n zone.
M o s t finished p r o d u c t s a r e , however, likely t o be s e n t east. A r e c e n t r e p o r t
[31751]
2
D
w a s g i v e n over t h e B e r l i n R a d i o t h a t 30,000 t o n s of c o t t o n a n d flax h a d been
s e n t f r o m t h e U . S . S . R . for p r o c e s s i n g in t h e zone. A n o t h e r r e p o r t s u g g e s t s
t h a t r a i l s r u n n i n g e a s t a n d w e s t a r e n o t to be r e m o v e d . I t i s p e r h a p s too e a r l y
t o j u d g e f r o m such u n c o - o r d i n a t e d p i e c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n w h a t S o v i e t i n d u s t r i a l
p o l i c y is or to w h a t e x t e n t t h e G e r m a n i n d u s t r i a l c a p a c i t y c a n be p u t t o t h e
u s e of t h e Soviet five-year p l a n . B u t i t m a y well be t h a t t h e S o v i e t a u t h o r i t i e s
a r e a n x i o u s t o see a f a r m o r e d r a s t i c d e - i n d u s t r i a l i s a t i o n i n w e s t e r n G e r m a n y
t h a n t h e y a r e themselves p r e p a r e d to a c c e p t i n t h e east. A c l e a r e r e s t i m a t e of
t h e i r policy m a y become possible w h e n , as i s n o w c o n t e m p l a t e d , l i a i s o n m i s s i o n s
a r e e x c h a n g e d b e t w e e n t h e zones.
65. T h e l a n d r e f o r m is t h e m o s t s w e e p i n g economic m e a s u r e so f a r c a r r i e d
out.
I t was completed quickly a n d ruthlessly.
T h e i m m e d i a t e effect of t h e
s p l i t t i n g u p of t h e l a r g e e s t a t e s h a s p r o b a b l y l e d t o a r e d u c t i o n of food o u t p u t ,
b u t i t w a s a l m o s t c e r t a i n l y conceived p r i m a r i l y as a p o l i t i c a l m e a s u r e .
It
e l i m i n a t e d t h e J u n k e r class a n d i t a l s o p r o v i d e d s m a l l h o l d i n g s for a c o n s i d e r ­
able n u m b e r of r e f u g e e s a n d f o r m e r l y l a n d l e s s p e a s a n t s . A l l t h e e s t a t e s over
100 h e c t a r e s w e r e b r o k e n u p a n d r e d i s t r i b u t e d i n 5 - h e c t a r e h o l d i n g s .
The
r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of f a r m m a c h i n e r y , h o r s e s a n d c a t t l e w a s obviously f a r m o r e
difficult.
T h e m e a s u r e i s p r o b a b l y , o n t h e whole, poioular. I t i m p l i e s a f u n d a ­
m e n t a l c h a n g e i n t h e social a n d economic s t r u c t u r e of e a s t e r n G e r m a n y .
W h e t h e r i t will p r o v e , or, i n d e e d , is d e s i g n e d to be, l a s t i n g is a n o t h e r m a t t e r .
T h e n e w h o l d i n g s a r e r e g a r d e d by e x p e r t s as too s m a l l to be economic a n d t h e
collective f a r m m a y b e t h e final s o l u t i o n .
66. F o o d r a t i o n s a r e a t p r e s e n t e s t i m a t e d a t 1,580 c a l o r i e s i n B e r l i n ,
D r e s d e n a n d L e i p z i g , 1,260 i n t h e l a r g e r t o w n s , a n d 1,020 i n t h e r e m a i n i n g a r e a s .
T h e r e is l i t t l e r e a s o n to t h i n k t h a t food c o n d i t i o n s a r e b e t t e r t h a n i n t h e w e s t
o r t h a t t h e y will be so for some t i m e to come. I n some d i s t r i c t s t h e r e a r e r e p o r t s
of f a m i n e .
I t h a s , h o w e v e r , been s a i d t h a t t h e p r e s e n t r a t i o n scale w i l l b e
maintained until the new harvest.
N o food h a s y e t been s e n t f r o m t h e s e
n o r m a l l y s u r p l u s a r e a s t o t h e w e s t e r n zones, t h o u g h t h e r e h a v e been r e p o r t s of
some g o i n g t o R u s s i a a n d P o l a n d . L a r g e q u a n t i t i e s a r e a l s o r e q u i r e d for t h e
R e d A r m y , w h i c h lives off t h e l a n d .
Occupational
forces.
67. T h e t o t a l n u m b e r of S o v i e t f o r c e s i n G e r m a n y i s n o t k n o w n .
Press
r e p o r t s h a v e p u t t h e figure a t 1 m i l l i o n . I t is, however, s u r p r i s i n g t h a t m o s t
r e p o r t s on t h e z o n e s t a t e t h a t S o v i e t t r o o p s a r e n o t m u c h in e v i d e n c e .
There
h a v e been f a i r l y w i d e s p r e a d ! r u m o u r s t h a t S o v i e t o c c u p a t i o n forces w o u l d b e
w i t h d r a w n once a S o c i a l i s t U n i t y P a r t y h a d been set u p a n d t h a t t h e y w o u l d
b e r e p l a c e d by a s p e c i a l p o l i c e force. B u t t h e r e a r e no s i g n s t h a t t h e S o v i e t
G o v e r n m e n t h a s set a n y l i m i t t o t h e p e r i o d of o c c u p a t i o n . M a r s h a l Z h u k o v
h a s been q u o t e d a s s a y i n g " W e w i l l n e v e r leave G e r m a n y . "
E.—Berlin.
The
City's
importance.
68. B e r l i n p o l i t i c a l l y t o - d a y is t h r e e t h i n g s : t h e c a p i t a l of d e f e a t e d
G e r m a n y , t h e s e a t of t h e A l l i e d C o n t r o l C o u n c i l a n d t h e c e n t r e of t h e S o v i e t
z o n e a n d h e a d q u a r t e r s of t h e S o v i e t M i l i t a r y G o v e r n m e n t .
69. A s t h e old c a p i t a l B e r l i n h a s i m p o r t a n c e i n t h e f o l l o w i n g w a y s : T h e
a s s o c i a t i o n a n d t r a d i t i o n of g o v e r n m e n t r e m a i n - o n c e a c a p i t a l , a l w a y s a c a p i t a l .
A g a i n , all G e r m a n p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s a n d m a n y G e r m a n s w h o do n o t belong t o
p a r t i e s s t i l l r e g a r d G e r m a n p o l i t i c a l u n i t y a s t h e one t h i n g w h i c h m u s t b e
s a v e d o u t of t h e n a t i o n a l w r e c k ; t h e s u p r a z o n a l s t a t u s of B e r l i n is, i n a w a y ,
a g u a r a n t e e of t h a t u n i t y , f o r t h e p r e s e n c e of f o u r P o w e r s i n B e r l i n a c t s as a
g u a r a n t e e a g a i n s t a b s o l u t e d o m i n a t i o n by a n y s i n g l e P o w e r .
70. A s t h e s e a t of t h e A l l i e d C o n t r o l C o u n c i l a n d its s u b o r d i n a t e com­
m i t t e e s a n d d i r e c t o r a t e s B e r l i n is t h e p l a c e w h e r e t h e f o u r zones, a s well as t h e
f o u r P o w e r s , m e e t . I t s f o u r sectors a r e B r i t i s h , A m e r i c a n , S o v i e t a n d F r e n c h
r e s p e c t i v e l y . T h e y a r e t h e zones of B e r l i n . I t s C o n t r o l C o u n c i l i n m i n i a t u r e
is t h e K o m e n d a t u r a . I t is a s o r t of fifth z o n e — a n i n t e r n a t i o n a l i s l a n d in t h e
S o v i e t zone of o c c u p a t i o n . A t P o t s d a m i t w a s d e c i d e d t o t r e a t G e r m a n y a s a n
e c o n o m i c whole a n d t o e s t a b l i s h c e r t a i n G e r m a n c e n t r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s .
B e r l i n is, i n e v i t a b l y , t h e p l a c e w h e r e s u c h a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s w o u l d be set u p a n d t h e only'' l o g i c a l c e n t r e of s u c h a n economic w h o l e . 7 1 . A s t o B e r l i n ' s p o s i t i o n a s t h e c e n t r e of t h e S o v i e t zone a n d t h e
h e a d q u a r t e r s of t h e Soviet o c c u p a t i o n forces, i t should be r e m e m b e r e d t h a t t h e ­
c i t y w a s c a p t u r e d by S o v i e t t r o o p s a n d , o n t h e p r i n c i p l e t h a t t a k i n g s a r e k e e p i n g s ,
i t i s n o t s u r p r i s i n g t h a t t h e y s h o u l d r e g a r d i t a s m o r e t h e i r s t h a n a n y b o d y else^s.
Also, w h i l e t h e y w e r e i n sole c h a r g e t h e y w e r e able to d o t h e i n i t i a l c l e a n i n g u p .
Soviet n o m i n e e s w e r e a p p o i n t e d to m a n y p o s t s i n the c i t y a d m i n i s t r a t i o n a n d
police. T h i s influence r e m a i n s . A n i s l a n d i n t h e Soviet zone, B e r l i n is l a r g e l y
d e p e n d e n t on Soviet g o o d w i l l . T h e t h r e e w e s t e r n A l l i e s a r e r e s p o n s i b l e for t h e
f e e d i n g of t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e sectors, b u t t h e food, t h e t r a i n s , t h e r o a d s , m u s t all
p a s s t h r o u g h Soviet t e r r i t o r y . F o r t h e S o v i e t E l e m e n t it is t h e h o m e g r o u n d . T h e
western Allies are playing away.
The
K.P.D.-S.P.D.
struggle.
7 2 . O n t h e G e r m a n i n t e r n a l p o l i t i c a l level t h e most i m p o r t a n t issue a t t h e
m o m e n t is t h e K . P . D . - S . P . D . fusion s t r u g g l e . I n i t s b r i e f e s t o u t l i n e t h e p o s i t i o n
is t h a t t h e S o v i e t a u t h o r i t i e s a r e a n x i o u s t o see t h e S . P . D . a n d t h e K . P . D . m e r g e d
into a single Socialist U n i t y P a r t y at the earliest date, as they have already
m e r g e d i n t h e S o v i e t z o n e itself. S u c h a p a r t y w o u l d e s s e n t i a l l y be d o m i n a t e d
by its c o m m u n i s t element a n d t h e Social D e m o c r a t s w o u l d , i n f a c t , lose b o t h t h e i r
independence and character.
7 3 . T h e S o c i a l D e m o c r a t s in B e r l i n a t first t r i e d to p o s t p o n e t h e d e c i s i o n
o n f u s i o n p e n d i n g a n a l l - G e r m a n S o c i a l D e m o c r a t conference.
Pressure was
h o w e v e r , b r o u g h t to b e a r on b o t h t h e c e n t r a l e x e c u t i v e c o m m i t t e e a n d t h e B e r l i n
e x e c u t i v e c o m m i t t e e w i t h t h e r e s u l t t h a t t h e l e a d e r s of t h e p a r t y e v e n t u a l l y c a m e
o u t i n f a v o u r of fusion. T h e y w e r e n o t , h o w e v e r , able t o c a r r y a l l t h e i r p a r t y
w i t h t h e m i n t h i s d e c i s i o n w i t h the r e s u l t t h a t t h e p a r t y s p l i t i n t o a n t i - a n d
p r o - f u s i o n g r o u p s . T h e a n t i - f u s i o n , or i n d e p e n d e n t , Social D e m o c r a t s succeeded
in o r g a n i s i n g a r e f e r e n d u m i n t h e t h r e e w e s t e r n sectors of B e r l i n on t h e
31st M a r c h , a n d 80 p e r cent, of those w h o v o t e d w e r e a g a i n s t fusion, a l t h o u g h
62 p e r cent, w e r e p r e p a r e d t o c o - o p e r a t e w i t h t h e C o m m u n i s t P a r t y . T h e S o v i e t
a u t h o r i t i e s d i d n o t a l l o w v o t i n g to t a k e p l a c e i n t h e i r sector a n d s u b s e q u e n t l y
d i d a l l t h e y c o u l d t o s h o w t h a t t h e r e s u l t s of t h e r e f e r e n d u m w e r e i n d e c i s i v e a n d
m e a n i n g l e s s . M e a n w h i l e t h e y o r g a n i s e d conferences both of t h e S . P . D . a n d t h e
Communists.
T h e t w o p a r t i e s h e l d s e p a r a t e conferences o n t h e 1 9 t h a n d
2 0 t h A p r i l , followed by a combined c o n f e r e n c e o n E a s t e r S u n d a y a n d M o n d a y .
T h e s e conferences w e r e r e g a r d e d a s R e i c h s p a r t y r a l l i e s , d e l e g a t e s f r o m t h e
w e s t e r n zone b e i n g i n v i t e d a n d elected t o t h e c e n t r a l c o m m i t t e e s of b o t h p a r t i e s
a n d also of t h e S o c i a l i s t U n i t y P a r t y . T h e f u s i o n of t h e S . P . D . a n d K . P . D . i n
t h e S o v i e t zone w a s a n n o u n c e d on E a s t e r M o n d a y . A t t h e t i m e of w r i t i n g t h e
n e w S o c i a l i s t U n i t y P a r t y h a s not y e t a p p l i e d to the A l l i e d K o m e n d a t u r a for
p e r m i s s i o n t o e x i s t in B e r l i n . I n p r a c t i c e i t e x i s t s i n t h e Soviet sector, w h i l e
i n t h e w e s t e r n sectors i t h a s been m a d e k n o w n t h a t no m e e t i n g s of t h e n e w p a r t y
or t h e o p e n i n g of offices w i l l be allowed u n t i l t h e K o m e n d a t u r a h a s a g r e e d t o t h e
s t a t u t e s a n d p r o g r a m m e of t h e p a r t y . T h e r e a p p e a r s to be no r e a s o n a b l e d o u b t
t h a t t h e i n d e p e n d e n t S o c i a l D e m o c r a t P a r t y c a n m a i n t a i n itself i n t h e w e s t e r n
sectors, b u t i n e v i t a b l y g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e d p r e s s u r e w i l l be b r o u g h t t o b e a r o n i t
by t h e R u s s i a n s a n d t h e G e r m a n C o m m u n i s t s .
The importance
of keeping a foothold in
Berlin.
7 4 . T h e conflict of n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t s i n policy^ t o w a r d s G e r m a n y is reflected
in m i n i a t u r e in t h e q u a d r i p a r t i t e c o n t r o l of B e r l i n . I t m i g h t a t first s i g h t be
a r g u e d t h a t i t w o u l d a v o i d f r i c t i o n all r o u n d if B e r l i n w e r e l e f t to t h e R u s s i a n s ,
a n d t h a t i n r e m a i n i n g t h e r e w e are o n l y g o i n g o u t of o u r Avay t o i n v i t e A l l i e d
q u a r r e l s i n w h a t seems e s s e n t i a l l y a G e r m a n c a u s e . T h i s w o u l d , however, a p p e a r
to be a, s h o r t s i g h t e d view. T h e i m p o r t a n c e of B e r l i n h a s a l r e a d y been e m p h a s i s e d .
I f o u r f o o t h o l d w e r e lost, e a s t e r n G e r m a n y w o u l d be completely sealed off f r o m t h e
west. S u c h d i v i s i o n w o u l d be p u r e l y o n e - s i d e d , s i n c e t h e w e s t e r n A l l i e s w o u l d find
t h a t t h e y could n o t effectively seal off w e s t e r n G e r m a n y f r o m t h e e a s t — j u s t a s
to-day Soviet views and news a r e exported to the world but little world news is
i m p o r t e d i n t o t h e U . S . S . R . I n a d d i t i o n o u r w i t h d r a w a l f r o m B e r l i n , a n d t h e loss
o f p r e s t i g e i t m u s t involve, w o u l d go f a r to convince m a n y G e r m a n s i n t h e w e s t
t h a t u n i t y a n d s e c u r i t y c o u l d only be a c h i e v e d by a c c e p t i n g c o m m u n i s m in t h e i r
t u r n . T h e y w o u l d s u r e l y feel t h a t S o v i e t d o m i n a t i o n in t h e e a s t h a d come to s t a y
a n d t h e y w o u l d w o n d e r h o w l o n g t h e w e s t e r n P o w e r s w o u l d c o n t i n u e to h o l d o n
in western Germany.
IV.—ESTIMATE
OE R U S S I A N
INTENTIONS.
7 5 . I t is p e r h a p s a m i s t a k e to e x a g g e r a t e t h e c l e a r n e s s of p u r p o s e o f
R u s s i a n policy in G e r m a n y . T h e S o v i e t G o v e r n m e n t m a y well be a s p e r p l e x e d
a s w e a r e ourselves. N e v e r t h e l e s s c e r t a i n b r o a d c o n c l u s i o n s m a y s a f e l y be d r a w n .
I t i s f a i r to a s s u m e i n t h e first p l a c e t h a t t h e S o v i e t G o v e r n m e n t h a v e r e t a i n e d
a n a b i d i n g i m p r e s s i o n of t h e offensive a n d d e f e n s i v e p o w e r of G e r m a n y a s s h o w n
i n t h e w a r . T h e y h a v e no w i s h t o t a k e a n y r i s k s w i t h G e r m a n y w h i c h , a t a n y
r a t e if a i d e d i n h e r recovery b y o t h e r P o w e r s , c o u l d once a g a i n p r o v e a very
f o r m i d a b l e enemy. S h e m u s t t h e r e f o r e be k e p t w e a k a n d s a f e l y c o n t a i n e d .
E q u a l l y f o r m i d a b l e i n S o v i e t eyes i s a c o m b i n a t i o n of t h e w e s t e r n d e m o c r a c i e s ,
of whose p o t e n t i a l offensive p o w e r t h e l a t e w a r b e a r s e l o q u e n t w i t n e s s .
This
c o m b i n a t i o n , s t r o n g i n itself, w o u l d become still s t r o n g e r if h a r n e s s e d t o t h a t of
a G e r m a n y r e s t o r e d w i t h w e s t e r n s u p p o r t a n d g u i d a n c e . I t also possesses, in
Soviet eyes, a g r e a t p o w e r of p o l i t i c a l a t t r a c t i o n f o r G e r m a n y . If, r e l y i n g on
t h e i r m a t e r i a l p o w e r a n d m o r a l influence, t h e w e s t e r n P o w e r s c o u l d see t h e i r
w a y to d r a w w e s t e r n G e r m a n y i n t o t h e i r o r b i t , t h e Soviet G o v e r n m e n t w o u l d
t h i n k i t n a t u r a l t h a t t h e y s h o u l d p r o c e e d t o do s o ; a n d t h e y a r e k e e n l y on t h e
w a t c h for s i g n s of s u c h a d e v e l o p m e n t .
76. T h e r e m a y be s a i d t h e r e f o r e t o be t h r e e m a i n e l e m e n t s p r e s e n t i n Soviet
policy t o w a r d s G e r m a n y :—
(a) p r e v e n t i n g a t all costs t h e r e v i v a l of a s t r o n g a n d i n d e p e n d e n t G e r m a n y ;
(b) p r e v e n t i n g w e s t e r n G e r m a n y w i t h t h e R u h r , o r even t h e R u h r alone,
b e i n g b r o u g h t i n t o a n y close g r o u p i n g of t h e w e s t e r n d e m o c r a c i e s ; a n d
(c) e n s u r i n g t h a t G e r m a n y e v e n t u a l l y looks e a s t a n d r e m a i n s u n d e r strong,.
a n d if possible exclusive, R u s s i a n influence.
M e a n w h i l e , t h e Soviet G o v e r n m e n t a r e f a c e d w i t h t h e p r o b l e m of p u r s u i n g
t h e i r a i m s in, a t a n y r a t e o u t w a r d , a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h a g r o u p of P o w e r s f o r whose
m a t e r i a l resources they have a healthy respect a n d for whose ulterior intentions
they have a deep mistrust.
77. T h e m a n n e r i n w h i c h t h e y h a v e u s e d t h e P o t s d a m A g r e e m e n t a s a n a i d
t o t h e i r p o l i c y is w o r t h y of n o t e a n d , i n d e e d , of r e s p e c t . So f a r a s t h e d e s t r u c t i v e
m e a s u r e s p r e s c r i b e d a t P o t s d a m a r e c o n c e r n e d t h e y h a v e i n s i s t e n t l y s t o o d o u t for
t h e s t r i c t e s t a p p l i c a t i o n a n d i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of t h e r e l e v a n t c l a u s e s — e . g . , those
r e l a t i n g to d i s a r m a m e n t , d e m i l i t a r i s a t i o n , d e n a z i f i c a t i o n , d e s t r u c t i o n a n d r e s t r i c ­
t i o n of w a r p o t e n t i a l , r e p a r a t i o n s , t h e s c a l i n g - d o w n of G e r m a n y ' s p e a c e - t i m e
level of i n d u s t r y a n d s t a n d a r d of l i v i n g . O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e y h a v e been less
i n t e r e s t e d i n t h o s e p o s i t i v e or c o n s t r u c t i v e p r o v i s i o n s of t h e P o t s d a m A g r e e m e n t
w h i c h call f o r f o u r - P o w e r a c t i o n .
G e r m a n y is n o t y e t t r e a t e d a s a n economic
w h o l e . I n t e r z o n a l t r a d e is of n e g l i g i b l e volume. T h e r e is n o p o o l i n g of food a n d
o t h e r resources. T h e R u s s i a n s a p p e a r t o be m a i n t a i n i n g t h a t i n p r e s e n t c i r c u m ­
s t a n c e s i m p o r t s a n d e x p o r t s s h a l l be b a l a n c e d on a z o n a l b a s i s . I n t h e i r o w n zone
t h e y c a r r y o u t t h e i r o w n p o l i t i c a l a n d economic p o l i c y b e h i n d a n i r o n c u r t a i n ,
w h i c h h a s as yet been l i f t e d o n l y t o c a r e f u l l y c o n d u c t e d v i s i t o r s . T h i s p o l i c y h a s
a c o n s t r u c t i v e as well as a r e p r e s s i v e aspect.
On the repressive side they are
e l i m i n a t i n g t h e bourgeois
classes as p a r t of t h e p r o c e s s of d e n a z i f i c a t i o n a n d
l a n d r e f o r m . B u t a w o r k e r , even if f o r m e r l y a n a c t i v e m e m b e r of t h e N a z i p a r t y ,
m a y be a d m i t t e d i n t o t h e r u l i n g c o m m u n i s t fold. On t h i s class b a s i s t h e y a r e
evidently seeking to p r o p i t i a t e the population, by l e t t i n g the G e r m a n s in large
m e a s u r e c o n d u c t t h e i r o w n affairs a n d even e n c o u r a g i n g t h e m t o b e a t t h e
n a t i o n a l i s t d r u m . O n t h e economic side t h e y a r e r e a c t i v a t i n g G e r m a n l i g h t
i n d u s t r i e s f o r t h e p r o d u c t i o n of c o n s u m e r goods, a n d t h e y m a y b e f o r e l o n g be
able t o j u s t i f y t h e i r c l a i m t h a t m a t e r i a l c o n d i t i o n s i n t h e i r o w n zone a r e b e t t e r
t h a n elsewhere in Germany.
78. T h e s e d e v e l o p m e n t s p r o m p t t h e q u e s t i o n , do t h e S o v i e t G o v e r n m e n t
d e s i r e t o see a u n i t a r y G e r m a n y a d m i n i s t e r e d f r o m B e r l i n a s f o r e s h a d o w e d a t
P o t s d a m ? O r d o t h e y w i s h t o p e r p e t u a t e t h e z o n a l s y s t e m of a d m i n i s t r a t i o n ?
S o m e of t h e i r a c t s a n d e x p r e s s i o n s of v i e w s p e a k i n f a v o u r of t h e first h y p o t h e s i s ,
a n d some i n f a v o u r of t h e second. T h e t r u t h p r o b a b l y is t h a t t h e y h a v e n o t y e t
m a d e u p their m i n d s ; t h a t they a r e a t present h e d g i n g , as the F r e n c h delegation
c o n v e n i e n t l y e n a b l e s t h e m to d o by b l o c k i n g t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of c e n t r a l G e r m a n
a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s ; a n d t h a t m e a n w h i l e t h e y a r e m a k i n g t h e best of b o t h w o r l d s ,
e s t a b l i s h i n g themselves s e c u r e l y i n t h e i r o w n zone, t o w h i c h t h e y w i l l a d d B e r l i n
if t h e y can, w h i l e a t t h e s a m e t i m e a s s e r t i n g a n d m a i n t a i n i n g to t h e m a x i m u m
d e g r e e t h e i r i n t e r e s t in, a n d r i g h t of access to, t h e w e s t e r n zones a n d t h e i r
d e m a n d f o r t h e i n t e g r a l a p p l i c a t i o n t h r o u g h o u t G e r m a n y of t h o s e p r o v i s i o n s of
P o t s d a m w h i c h suit them.
79. T h e y a r e u n l i k e l y to be in a n y h u r r y to m o d i f y t h i s s i t u a t i o n of t h e i r
o w n accord, m o r e p a r t i c u l a r l y a s b o t h t h e u n i t a r y G e r m a n y a n d t h e zonal G e r m a n y h a v e possible d i s a d v a n t a g e s f r o m t h e i r p o i n t of view. T h e y m a y also"
w i s h to a v o i d a n y f u n d a m e n t a l decisions u n t i l a f t e r t h e F r e n c h e l e c t i o n s a n d .
p e r h a p s u n t i l t h e y c a n e s t i m a t e t h e p r o s p e c t s of t h e S o c i a l i s t U n i t y P a r t y
c a t c h i n g on i n w e s t e r n G e r m a n y or, a l t e r n a t i v e l y , of t h e w e s t e r n d e m o c r a c i e s
successfully o r g a n i s i n g a r e a s o n a b l y p r o s p e r o u s e x i s t e n c e i n t h e w e s t e r n zones.
T h e y a r e p r o b a b l y less c e r t a i n t h a n some w e s t e r n t h i n k e r s t h a t a u n i t a r y G e r m a n y
g o v e r n e d f r o m B e r l i n w o u l d n e c e s s a r i l y be u n d e r decisive Soviet influence. E v e n
a C o m m u n i s t G e r m a n y w o u l d b e u n l i k e l y to f o r g e t or f o r g i v e t h e a m p u t a t i o n of
t h e e a s t e r n p r o v i n c e s , for all t h e efforts t h e R u s s i a n s could u s e t o d i v e r t i t s
h o s t i l i t y t o w a r d s t h e w e s t ; n o r a r e t h e t r a d i t i o n s a n d d o c t r i n e s of R u s s i a n a n d
German communism identical.
O n t h e o t h e r h a n d t h e y m a y well see g r a v e
d a n g e r s i n t h e z o n a l solution, lest i t r e s u l t i n t h e p e r m a n e n t e s t a b l i s h m e n t of
w e s t e r n a n d c a p i t a l i s t influence i n t h e w e s t e r n zones, t h e i n c o r p o r a t i o n of
w e s t e r n G e r m a n y i n t h e w e s t e r n bloc, a n d t h e i n t e g r a t i o n of a revived G e r m a n
i n d u s t r y i n t h e w e s t e r n economic system. A n a c u t e observer i n B e r l i n r e c e n t l y
s u m m e d u p h i s v i e w of R u s s i a n i n t e n t i o n s as follows. T h e d e v e l o p m e n t s of
t h e p a s t few w e e k s h a d n o w c o n v i n c e d h i m t h a t t h e Soviet a u t h o r i t i e s h a d n o
i n t e n t i o n of p e r m i t t i n g effective f o u r - P o w e r c o n t r o l over t h e affairs of t h e i r
zone. T h e y m i g h t c o n f o r m to c e r t a i n f o r m a l f o u r - P o w e r r u l e s , b u t t h e y w o u l d
r u n t h e i r zone p o l i t i c a l l y a n d economically a s a m a t t e r of t h e i r o w n exclusive
concern. T h e y w o u l d n o t a l l o w i t t o be effectively t r e a t e d a s p a r t of a G e r m a n
economic w h o l e . O n t h e o t h e r b a n d t h e y w o u l d no d o u b t be a n x i o u s for G e r m a n y
t o be t r e a t e d a s a u n i t for p u r p o s e s of p o l i t i c a l a c t i v i t y , since t h i s w o u l d p r o m o t e
t h e s p r e a d of t h e n e w S o c i a l i s t U n i t y P a r t y t h r o u g h o u t G e r m a n y . T h e i r h o p e
was, f r o m a s e c u r e a n d i n v i o l a b l e base i n t h e i r o w n zone, to e x t e n d t h e i r influence
w e s t w a r d s . O n l y w h e n G e r m a n y w a s unified p o l i t i c a l l y in t h e w a y t h e y w i s h e d
w o u l d t h e y a l l o w G e r m a n y t o be unified e c o n o m i c a l l y a n d b y t h a t t i m e t h e y
w o u l d t h i n k t h a t G e r m a n y s h o u l d be r u n by G e r m a n s a n d n o t by t h e A l l i e s .
-
80. Of o n e t h i n g w e m a y be s u r e . T h e y w i l l n o t r e s t c o n t e n t w i t h o r g a n i s i n g
t h e i r o w n zone. A l r e a d y t h e y a r e a c t i v e l y s u p p o r t i n g t h e C o m m u n i s t s i n t h e
w e s t e r n zones a n d , a s soon as t h e y feel t h e i r o r g a n i s a t i o n sufficiently complete,
they m a y be c o u n t e d on t o l a u n c h o u t o n a m o r e f o r w a r d policy i n t h e w e s t .
H e r r G r o t e w o h l , t h e S o c i a l D e m o c r a t l e a d e r in B e r l i n , w h o h a s e s p o u s e d t h e
cause of f u s i o n w i t h t h e C o m m u n i s t s , p u t t h e m a t t e r i n a n u t s h e l l in a speech
c e l e b r a t i n g t h e d e c i s i o n of t h e p a r t y c o n f e r e n c e i n f a v o u r of fusion. " T h e n e w
p a r t y " he s a i d " will not halt a t the Elbe."
24Jh April,
1946.