(c) crown copyright Catalogue Reference:CAB/129/83 Image Reference:0011 (THIS D O C U M E N T IS T H E P R O P E R T Y O F H E R B R I T A N N I C M A J E S T Y ' S G O V E R N M E N T ) CONFIDENTIAL COPY NO. C P . ( 5 6 ) 211 ^ 2 21st S e p t e m b e r , 1956 CABINET B R I T I S H T R A N S P O R T COMMISSION N o t e b y t h e M i n i s t e r of T r a n s p o r t a n d C i v i l A v i a t i o n I c i r c u l a t e for t h e i n f o r m a t i o n of m y c o l l e a g u e s a c o p y of t h e m e m o r a n d u m " R e v i e w of F i n a n c i a l S i t u a t i o n " p r e p a r e d b y t h e B r i t i s h Transport Commission. H.W. M i n i s t r y of T r a n s p o r t and C i v i l A v i a t i o n , W. 1. 20th S e p t e m b e r , 1956. BRITISH TRANSPORT COMMISSION REVIEW OF FINANCIAL SITUATION 222, Marylebone Road, SEPTEMBER, 1956. N.W.I. BRITISH TRANSPORT COMMISSION REVIEW OF FINANCIAL SITUATION CHAPTER I j INTRODUCTION On 1 9 t h M a r c h , 1 9 5 6 , t h e M i n i s t e r of T r a n s p o r t a n d C i v i l A v i a t i o n m a d e a s t a t e m e n t i n t h e H o u s e o f Commons about' the B r i t i s h Transport Commissions charges. The C o m m i s s i o n h a d s h o r t l y b e f o r e t h i s d a t e made an a p p l i c a t i o n t o t h e M i n i s t e r f o r an i n c r e a s e i n t h e i r f r e i g h t charges, a n d ' t o t h e T r a n s p o r t T r i b u n a l f o r an i n c r e a s e i n c e r t a i n p a s s e n g e r c h a r g e s and had a l s o a n n o u n c e d a p r o p o s e d i n c r e a s e o f f u r t h e r p a s s e n g e r c h a r g e s w h i c h w e r e w i t h i n t h e i r own authority. B r i e f l y , t h e M i n i s t e r informed the House t h a t w h e r e a s i t was Government p o l i c y t h a t n a t i o n a l i s e d i n d u s t r i e s , in f i x i n g t h e i r charges, should seek f u l l y to r e f l e c t their c o s t s , t h e s p e c i a l p o s i t i o n and f u r t h e r o u t l o o k r e l a t i n g t o t h e C o m m i s s i o n ^ a f f a i r s j u s t i f i e d t h e Government i n a s k i n g the Commission, i n the n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t , to follow a c o u r s e w h i c h w o u l d i n v o l v e an e x c e p t i o n t o t h i s g e n e r a l policy. The i n c r e a s e s f o r w h i c h t h e Commission h a d a p p l i e d or which they i n t e n d e d to b r i n g i n t o f o r c e w e r e , t h e r e f o r e , r e d u c e d or p o s t p o n e d f o r a p e r i o d of s i x m o n t h s , d u r i n g w h i c h a f r e s h a s s e s s m e n t of t h e C o m m i s s i o n s p o s i t i o n and p r o s p e c t s would be u n d e r t a k e n to be f o l l o w e d by s u c h s p e c i a l a c t i o n a s s e e m e d a p p r o p r i a t e a t t h e end o f t h a t p e r i o d . It was on t h i s c l e a r u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h a t t h e C o m m i s s i o n h a d agreed to the course proposed. A c c o r d i n g l y t h e C o m m i s s i o n h a v e now r e v i e w e d o n c e a g a i n t h e f i n a n c i a l p r o s p e c t s of t h e i r u n d e r t a k i n g a n d i n p a r t i c u l a r t h e e c o n o m i c s of t h e M o d e r n i s a t i o n P l a n f o r the railways. T h i s document s e t s out t h e r e s u l t s of t h e i r review. T h r o u g h o u t t h e r e v i e w and i n e s t i m a t i n g t h e f u t u r e m a r g i n b e t w e e n r e v e n u e and e x p e n d i t u r e t h e Commission h a v e , o f n e c e s s i t y , f r a m e d t h e i r f o r e c a s t s on t h e b a s i s o f t h e p r e s e n t v a l u e of m o n e y and a c o n t i n u a n c e of c u r r e n t economic c o n d i t i o n s . They have a l s o had t o b a s e themselves on c e r t a i n a s s u m p t i o n s a b o u t o t h e r m a t t e r s o u t s i d e t h e i r c o n t r o l , the major assumptions being as follows : ­ ( a ) T h a t t h e C o m m i s s i o n w i l l n o t b e p r e v e n t e d f r o m a d j u s t i n g t h e i r c h a r g e s w i t h o u t d e l a y a t any time to cover increases in c o s t s , should they c o n s i d e r i t e x p e d i e n t t o do s o . ( b ) T h a t t h e C o m m i s s i o n w i l l b e f r e e t o o p e r a t e on f l e x i b l e s y s t e m s of c h a r g i n g a n d t o d e t e r m i n e on a r e a s o n a b l e b a s i s t h e s c a l e a n d s c o p e o f the s e r v i c e s to be p r o v i d e d . ( c ) T h a t t h e n e c e s s a r y r e s o u r c e s of a l l k i n d s w i l l be a v a i l a b l e to e n a b l e t h e Commission, in c o - o p e r a t i o n w i t h i n d u s t r y , t o c a r r y out t h e i r P l a n f o r t h e M o d e r n i s a t i o n and R e - e q u i p m e n t of B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s a c c o r d i n g to programme. ( d ) T h a t t h e G o v e r n m e n t p o l i c y r e g a r d i n g t h e framework w i t h i n which the Commission o p e r a t e w i l l remain as a t p r e s e n t , ( i n making t h i s assumption f o r t h e . p u r p o s e of t h i s r e v i e w t h e Commission r e s e r v e t h e i r r i g h t t o make s e p a r a t e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s on s u c h m a t t e r s ) . ( e ) T h a t s p e c i a l a c t i o n w i l l toe t a k e n a s s o o n as p o s s i b l e which w i l l permit the Commission t o p r e s e r v e an a t m o s p h e r e of p r o p e r f i n a n c i a l d i s c i p l i n e t h r o u g h ­ out t h e i r a f f a i r s ; it follows that f i n a n c i a l t a r g e t s m u s t toe s e t w h i c h a r e r e a s o n a b l y p o s s i b l e of a c h i e v e m e n t i n t h e c i r c u m s t a n c e s , tout w h i c h c o n t a i n n o e l e m e n t of s u b s i d y . CHAPTER I I 5 THE FINANCIAL PROBLEM 4 . The Commission have e a r n e d a working s u r p l u s i n e v e r y y e a r s i n c e t h e y "began o p e r a t i o n s . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , i n s e v e r a l of t h e s e y e a r s t h e s u r p l u s e a r n e d was n o t s u f f i c i e n t t o m e e t t h e f i n a n c i a l c h a r g e s on t h e f i x e d ­ i n t e r e s t "borrowings, which c o n s t i t u t e v i r t u a l l y the C o m m i s s i o n ^ s o l e s o u r c e of e x t e r n a l c a p i t a l . The r i g i d i t y t h u s i m p o s e d on t h e C o m m i s s i o n ' s f i n a n c i a l p o l i c y i s r e l a x e d t o some e x t e n t , h o w e v e r , b y a p r o v i s i o n I n t h e 191+7 A c t w h i c h a l l o w s t h e C o m m i s s i o n t o " t a k e o n e year with another" i n "balancing t h e i r a c c o u n t s . I t was a l s o i n t e n d e d t h a t t h e C o m m i s s i o n s h o u l d b u i l d up g e n e r a l r e s e r v e s which would b e used t o smooth o u t t h o s e y e a r l y f l u c t u a t i o n s of p r o f i t a n d l o s s w h i c h a r e i n h e r e n t i n a e a p i t a l s t r u c t u r e b a s e d p u r e l y on f i x e d i n t e r e s t b o r r o w ­ i n gs , b u t t h e Commission s t a r t e d w i t h o u t such r e s e r v e s and n e v e r o b t a i n e d i n c r e a s e s i n f a r e s and c h a r g e s l a r g e enough to p e r m i t t h e i r c r e a t i o n . 5 . The f i n a n c e s of t h e r a i l w a y s h a v e , m o r e o v e r , been c o n s i d e r a b l y a f f e c t e d by the c o n t r o l over c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t , t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s of w h i c h a r e l i k e l y t o d e p r e s s t h e i r c o m p e t i t i v e power f o r some y e a r s t o come. T h e r e s t r i c t i o n s p l a c e d on t h e r e p l a c e m e n t o f o u t - o f - d a t e r o l l i n g s t o c k , b u i l d i n g s and equipment h a v e b e e n p a r t i c u l a r l y severe. They h a v e l e d t o e x c e s s i v e m a i n t e n a n c e c o s t s and t h e d e l a y s i n overcoming w a r - t i m e a r r e a r s have meant t h a t the special reserves inherited to finance these arrears at 1947 p r i c e s p r o v e d t o b e q u i t e i n a d e q u a t e a t t h e p r i c e s r u l i n g when t h e w o r k was p u t i n h a n d . Even more i m p o r t a n t h a s b e e n t h e e f f e c t on e f f i c i e n c y , i n v o l v i n g h i g h e r r u n n i n g c o s t s and i n some i n s t a n c e s l o s s of t r a f f i c t o c o m p e t i t o r s w h o s e e q u i p m e n t was m o r e u p - t o - d a t e . 6. Even so,Working S u r p l u s e s have been earned as follows £m. 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 45.2 31 . 3 40.0 49.1 53.8 59.4 45.5 29.5 Against these surpluses, the C e n t r a l Charges, mainly the f i n a n c i a l c h a r g e s a l r e a d y m e n t i o n e d f o r r e m u n e r a t i o n of c a p i t a l , h a v e a v e r a g e d a b o u t £50m. a y e a r , w i t h a t e n d e n c y t o r i s e i n l a t e r y e a r s p r i n c i p a l l y b e c a u s e of the need to r e p l a c e a s s e t s booked at p r e - w a r v a l u e s by a s s e t s p u r c h a s e d a t t h e new l e v e l s of c o s t . However, l e a v i n g o u t a b a d p e r i o d i n t h e l a t e m o n t h s of 1949 a n d t h e e a r l y m o n t h s o f 1 9 5 0 , when t h e r e w e r e s p e c i a l d e l a y s i n d e a l i n g w i t h c h a r g i n g p o l i c y a f t e r t h e d e v a l u a t i o n of t h e pound s t e r l i n g , t h e Commission were more or l e s s i n b a l a n c e o v e r t h e f i r s t s e v e n y e a r s of t h e i r e x i s t e n c e , t h a t i s , t h e y were r e m u n e r a t i n g t h e i r c a p i t a l p r a c t i c a l l y in f u l l ; i t w a s o n l y t h e e x c e e d i n g l y p o o r r e s u l t s i n 1955 w h i c h p r o m p t e d t h e v i e w t h a t one c o u l d n o l o n g e r e x p e c t t h e l e a n y e a r s t o "be s a f e l y r e c o u p e d o u t of t h e b e t t e r o n e s i n t h e f u t u r e , w i t h t h e l e v e l of. t h e . a c c u m u l a t e d d e f i c i t kept to n e g l i g i b l e proportions in consequence. T h e f i n a n c i a l s h o r t f a l l o f t h e y e a r 1955 was a t t r i b u t a b l e t o s p e c i a l c a u s e s r a t h e r t h a n t o any i n h e r e n t w e a k n e s s i n t h e economics of t h e C o m m i s s i o n ' s affairs. The r a i l w a y s t r i k e l o s t t h e Commission^ a b o u t £12m; t h e r e was a l a p s e o f s e v e r a l m o n t h s i n p u t t i n g u p c h a r g e s w h i c h c o s t £10m: and t h e r e were sudden i n c r e a s e s i n p r i c e s ( c h i e f l y c o a l ) i m m e d i a t e l y a f t e r t h e p r o c e s s of r e - a d j u s t i n g t h e c h a r g e s was c o m p l e t e d , w h i c h c o s t t h e C o m m i s s i o n a b o u t £5m. i n t h e c a l e n d a r y e a r . If these s p e c i a l i t e m s , t o t a l l i n g £27m., a r e added t o t h e a c t u a l w o r k i n g s u r p l u s of £29i-m. f o r t h e y e a r , i t w i l l b e s e e n t h a t e v e n t h e y e a r 1955? t h o u g h i t w a s a y e a r o f f i n a n c i a l u n b a l a n c e , was n o t a y e a r o f f u n d a m e n t a l e c o n o m i c w e a k n e s s . N e v e r t h e l e s s t h e r e were growing i n d i c a t i o n s , as t h e y e a r c l o s e d , t h a t the C o m m i s s i o n ^ f i n a n c e s were b e i n g v e r y seriously strained under existing circumstances. E a r l y i n 1956 t h e p o s i t i o n d e t e r i o r a t e d f u r t h e r , and p o s s i b l y i t c h a n g e d i n n a t u r e . Certainly the back­ g r o u n d . c h a n g e d , and w i t h t h e g e n e r a l d r i v e t h r o u g h o u t t h e c o u n t r y t o h a l t f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e s i n t h e p r i c e of b a s i c goods and s e r v i c e s , i t became d o u b t f u l w h e t h e r t h e l a s t g e n e r a l i n c r e a s e i n t r a n s p o r t wages c o u l d or s h o u l d b e recouped forthwith i n higher t r a n s p o r t charges. On railways in p a r t i c u l a r the general merchandise t r a f f i c continued t o d e c l i n e , p a r t l y because they were not e q u i p p e d t o i m p r o v e t h e i r s t a n d a r d s of s e r v i c e i n s t e p with t h e i r ccompetitors. I n t h e event, i t was d e c i d e d , as a l r e a d y m e n t i o n e d , t h a t i t was e x p e d i e n t t o l i m i t t h e amount and n a t u r e of t h e p r o p o s e d i n c r e a s e s i n t r a n s p o r t c h a r g e s f o r s i x m o n t h s , and t o u s e t h i s p e r i o d f o r m a k i n g a r e v i e w of t h e whole p o s i t i o n . Allowing f o r the increases i n c h a r g e s w h i c h vi/ere a u t h o r i s e d , t h e C o m m i s s i o n w e r e l e f t w i t h a g a p i n t h e i r b u d g e t o f t h e o r d e r o f £35m. a y e a r . Since t h a t date t h e r e have been c e r t a i n f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e s i n c o s t s a n d o t h e r c h a n g e s i n t h e p o s i t i o n w h i c h mean t h a t t h e p r o b a b l e r a t e o f d e f i c i t i s a b o u t £h5m. a y e a r . T h e a c c u m u l a t e d d e f i c i t a t t h e e n d of 1955 w a s a l r e a d y £70m. T h i s was due m a i n l y t o t i m e l a g s i n p u t t i n g u p f a r e s a n d c h a r g e s , l a r g e l y on t r a f f i c s s u c h a s t h e movement of London p a s s e n g e r s , r a t h e r t h a n t o a n y i n h e r e n t weakness i n the competitive f i e l d s . By t h e end of t h i s y e a r , h o w e v e r , t h e a c c u m u l a t e d d e f i c i t w i l l b e of t h e o r d e r of £120m., a s s u m i n g no f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e s i n wages or o t h e r c o s t s , and i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o r e a l i s e w h a t t h e p o s i t i o n w i l l b e i n a few y e a r s ' time i f a p p r o p r i a t e measures a r e not taken. I t i s not merely t h a t there w i l l b e a s t e a d y a d d i t i o n of f u r t h e r a n d g r o w i n g d e f i c i t s , m a i n l y from t h e o p e r a t i o n of B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s , b u t a l s o from t h e o p e r a t i o n of London T r a n s p o r t and I n l a n d Waterways. To a l l o w t h e b u d g e t t o r e m a i n u n b a l a n c e d w i l l h a v e consequences almost more s e r i o u s i n undermining f i n a n c i a l d i s c i p l i n e w i t h i n t h e o r g a n i s a t i o n , and t o r e l y i n e f f e c t on i n d e f i n i t e s u b s i d y w o u l d b e d i s a s t r o u s t o t h e s e l f ­ r e s p e c t of t h e u n d e r t a k i n g , t o t h e i r u r g e tov/ards e f f i c i e n c y , and t o t h e b a s i s of t h e i r r e l a t i o n s w i t h I 7 other p a r t i e s . The t o t a l d e f i c i t c a r r i e d f o r w a r d w o u l d r e a c h u n m a n a g e a b l e p r o p o r t i o n s , and u l t i m a t e l y a d e f a u l t upon t h e C o m m i s s i o n ^ o b l i g a t i o n s would b e i n e s c a p a b l e . The e f f e c t of s u o h a c o u r s e of e v e n t s on t h e s e r v i c e s p r o v i d e d t o t h e t r a d e r and t h e t r a v e l l i n g p u b l i c n e e d n o t b e u n d e r l i n e d . 1 0 . . T h i s i s t h e p o t e n t i a l m a g n i t u d e of t h e p r o b l e m i n t h e a b s e n c e of r e m e d i a l m e a s u r e s . I t has not been c r e a t e d by a mere d e c i s i o n to r e s t r i c t i n c r e a s e s in c h a r g e s f o r a b r i e f p e r i o d , nor can i t be d i s p e l l e d by t h e s i m p l e e x p e d i e n t of d i s c a r d i n g a l l r e s t r a i n t i n charging policy. T h e C o m m i s s i o n h a v e t a k e n , and a r e t a k i n g , t h e m e a s u r e s o u t l i n e d i n C h a p t e r s IV and VI b e l o w , and on t h e a s s u m p t i o n s p r e v i o u s l y m e n t i o n e d t h e C o m m i s s i o n are confident t h a t t h e s e measures w i l l u l t i m a t e l y r e s t o r e t h e f i n a n c i a l p o s i t i o n p r o v i d e d t h a t means can be f o u n d t o e n a b l e t h e Commission t o keep t h e s i t u a t i o n under p r o p e r c o n t r o l d u r i n g t h e n e x t few y e a r s of r e c o n s t r u c t i o n and d e v e l o p m e n t . T h e q u e s t i o n of d e a l i n g w i t h t h i s p e r i o d i s examined i n C h a p t e r V I I , and t h e Commission s u b m i t t h a t i t s h o u l d b e t a c k l e d w i t h d e c i s i o n and urgency. T h e y p r e s e n t i n t h i s p a p e r e v i d e n c e t o show, t h a t i t i s n o t a m a t t e r of r e s c u i n g a m o r i b u n d c o n c e r n f r o m r a i n , b u t of e n a b l i n g o n e w i t h a s o u n d , e v e n b r i g h t , future to pass through this d i f f i c u l t period without b e i n g thrown i n t o h o p e l e s s d i s a r r a y . CHAPTER I I I : THE ROLE OF THE RAILWAYS 1 1 . T h e r a i l w a y s r e p r e s e n t t h e p r e p o n d e r a n t p a r t of t h e C o m m i s s i o n ' s u n d e r t a k i n g and t h e p r o b l e m o f f i n d i n g a b a s i s f o r t h e p r o f i t a b l e o p e r a t i o n of B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s i s v i t a l t o the Commission. T h e same p r o b l e m f a c e s t r a n s ­ p o r t a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s abroad where i t has been g e n e r a l l y a c c e p t e d t h a t t h e r a i l w a y s h a v e an e s s e n t i a l p a r t t o p l a y . I t i s s i g n i f i c a n t t h a t most r f t h e W e s t e r n E u r o p e a n n a t i o n s gave p r i o r i t y t o r a i l w a y r e c o n s t r u c t i o n i n t h e i r p o s t war p l a n s . 1 2 . The f a c t t h a t s e r i o u s f i n a n c i a l p r o b l e m s b e s e t t h e r a i l w a y s i n many c o u n t r i e s t o d a y m u s t b e l a r g e l y a s c r i b e d t o t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s which t h e s e r a i l w a y s have encountered in t h e i r endeavours to adapt themselves to t h e c h a n g i n g p a t t e r n of i n d u s t r i a l economy and s o c i e t y . Some o f t h e s e d i f f i c u l t i e s c a n b e a s c r i b e d t o s t a t u t o r y requirements; some t o p u b l i c u n r e a d i n e s s t o a p p r e c i a t e t h e f u l l c o n s e q u e n c e s o f t h e e m e r g e n c e of a l t e r n a t i v e forms of t r a n s p o r t ; some t o a t t e m p t s t o p r e s e r v e .. t r a f f i c s which a r e uneconomic or b e t t e r s u i t e d to other f o r m s of t r a n s p o r t ; a n d some t o r e s t r i c t i o n s on c a p i t a l development or to p u b l i c r e l u c t a n c e to i n v e s t . 13* T h e n e e d f o r r a i l w a y s , t h e i r r o l e i n f u t u r e and t h e t a s k s a s s i g n e d t o t h e r a i l w a y s y s t e m a s a w h o l e , and i n i t s i n d i v i d u a l p a r t s , must b e c o n s t a n t l y reviewed i n t h e l i g h t of l o c a l c i r c u m s t a n c e s and o f c h a n g i n g c o n d i t i o n s ; b u t t h e r e a r e t w o m a i n c r i t e r i a " i n d i s p e n s a b i l i t y " and "economy". A s e r v i c e may b e . c l a s s e d a s i n d i s p e n s a b l e b e c a u s e t h e t r a f f i c c a n b e moved i n no o t h e r way; or i t may b e n e e d e d a s a n e s s e n t i a l r e l i e f t o r o a d s ; or there may b e n o o t h e r m e a n s o f s u f f i c i e n t l y f a s t t r a n s i t o v e r long distances. By c o n t r a s t , s e r v i c e s may b e d e s i r a b l e b e c a u s e , of a l l t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s , t h e y a r e t h e most economic e i t h e r i n terms of c o s t t o t h e customer or i n u s e of n a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e s . 1U. A v e r y l a r g e p a r t of t h e r a i l w a y t r a c k m i l e a g e in the g r e a t conurbations l i k e London, Glasgow, South L a n c a s h i r e and B i r m i n g h a m i s p r i m a r i l y u s e d f o r t h e u r b a n and s u b u r b a n p a s s e n g e r s e r v i c e s . These services carry a b o u t 1-g- m i l l i o n p a s s e n g e r s d a i l y , m a i n l y t o a n d from t h e i r w o r k , i n b r i e f and e x c e e d i n g l y h e a v y s u r g e s . They a c c o u n t f c r a b o u t one h a l f of t h e a n n u a l t o t a l of 1 ,000 m i l l i o n p a s s e n g e r s on B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s . The r o a d s c o u l d n o t p h y s i c a l l y cope w i t h such s u r g e s . The r a i l w a y s alone can give t h e c o n c e n t r a t e d l e a d i n g , t h e s t r i c t c o n t r o l and t h e t i m i n g w h i c h make t h e s e movements possible. A r a i l w a y can d e a l w i t h a t h r o u g h p u t of a t l e a s t 2 0 , 0 0 0 p e r s o n s a n h c u r f o r e a c h t r a c k and a l a r g e c i t y t e r m i n u s m a y h a n d l e o v e r 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 p e r s o n s cn a b u s y morning. Moreover, t h e p u b l i c t r a v e l at higher speeds over r a t h e r l o n g e r d i s t a n c e s , and i n s a f e r c i r c u m s t a n c e s , t h a n o b t a i n sn t h e r o a d s . C l e a r l y t h e r e i s no a l t e r n a ­ t i v e to t h e s e r a i l w a y s e r v i c e s , a l t h o u g h they tend to be e x p e n s i v e t o p r o v i d e and r e l a t i v e l y u n r e m u n e r a t i v e . 1 5 . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e l o n g e r d i s t a n c e p a s s e n g e r t r a f f i c s a c c o u n t f o r a l e s s e r number of p a s s e n g e r s , b u t the p a s s e n g e r m i l e s and t h e a v e r a g e f a r e p e r p a s s e n g e r c a r r i e d a r e m u c h g r e a t e r and t h e s e r v i c e s a r e p r o f i t a b l e . T h e r a i l w a y c o s t p e r s e a t m i l e on s u c h s e r v i c e s i s m u c h lower than t h e comparable road cost a n d , even a l l o w i n g for the g r e a t e r carrying capacity which the railways have t o m a i n t a i n t o cope w i t h s u r g e s and w i t h s e a s o n a l f l u c t u a t i o n s i n t r a f f i c , t h e t r a i n can s t i l l o p e r a t e a t f a r e s w h i c h a t t r a c t t h e p u b l i c and l e a v e a p r o f i t . M o r e o v e r , t h e s e l o n g d i s t a n c e s e r v i c e s o f f e r s p e e d and comfort as w e l l as such convenience as t h e n i g h t s l e e p e r services. They a l s o p r o v i d e f a c i l i t i e s f o r the c a r r i a g e o f m a i l s , n e w s p a p e r s , p e r i s h a b l e s and s p e c i a l p a r c e l t r a f f i c s , which a l o n e b r i n g i n n e a r l y £50 m i l l i o n a year. 1 6 . T h e r e i s no p r a c t i c a b l e road a l t e r n a t i v e t o t h e s e l o n g d i s t a n c e t r a i n s e r v i c e s , and a s i g n o f t h e f u t u r e m a y b e s e e n i n t h e g r o w i n g p o p u l a r i t y of t h e " c a r s l e e p e r " s e r v i c e s over the trunk r o u t e s , by which t h e p a s s e n g e r and h i s c a r a r e t r a n s p o r t e d t o g e t h e r . 17* I n b e t w e e n t h e u r b a n and s u b u r b a n s e r v i c e s and t h e l o n g d i s t a n c e t r a f f i c s , t h e r e a r e t h e r u r a l and "feeder" passenger services. H e r e t h e r o l e of t h e r a i l w a y i s l e s s c e r t a i n and i t i s h e r e t h a t t h e g r e a t e s t changes a r e to be e x p e c t e d . The b u s i s o f t e n a c h e a p e r and more e x p e d i t i o u s m e t h o d of h a n d l i n g t h e s e t r a f f i c s , and t h e p r i v a t e c a r i s a s t i l l m o r e c o n v e n i e n t m e a n s . Many o f t h e s e r a i l s e r v i c e s h a v e b e e n r u n n i n g a t a l o s s f o r a l o n g t i m e and p r e s e n t a p r o b l e m w h i c h i s d i s c u s s e d i n a l a t e r s e c t i o n of t h i s r e v i e w . Any p l a n f o r r e f a s h i o n i n g t h e r a i l w a y system t o s u i t modern t r a n s p o r t c o n d i t i o n s m u s t f i r s t e x p l o r e a l t e r n a t i v e m e t h o d s of operation. T h e r e a f t e r , those s e r v i c e s which cannot p o s s i b l y b e made e c o n o m i c b y m o d e r n r a i l m e t h o d s and which can b e b e t t e r c a t e r e d f o r b y road t r a n s p o r t must be e l i m i n a t e d . 1 8 . For freight t r a f f i c , a railway is a highly e c o n o m i c m e a n s o f t r a n s p o r t when t h e f l o w o f traffic i s h e a v y enough and s t e a d y enough t o p e r m i t of i t s b e i n g h a n d l e d i n r e g u l a r t r a i n s of v e h i c l e s w i t h o n l y one m o t i v e u n i t and c r e w , r a t h e r t h a n i n i n d i v i d u a l v e h i c l e s e a c h w i t h i t s own p o w e r a n d c r e w , p r o v i d e d a l w a y s t h a t no c o s t l y t e r m i n a l h a n d l i n g s o r t r a n s h i p ­ m e n t s a r e i n v o l v e d i n g e t t i n g t h e t r a f f i c from d o o r t o door. 19* Regular b u l k mineral t r a f f i c s such as c o a l , coke and i r o n o r e a r e u s u a l l y c a r r i e d f a r more c h e a p l y and c o n v e n i e n t l y , even o v e r s h o r t d i s t a n c e s , by r a i l than by road. N e a r l y 1,000 t o n s o f b u l k f r e i g h t c a n b e moved b y a t r a i n c r e w of n o m o r e t h a n t h r e e m e n . For such t r a f f i c s , which a r e s t i l l i n c r e a s i n g , railways a r e t h e e c o n o m i c form of t r a n s p o r t , a n d , t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n of l a r g e w a g o n s w i t h c o n t i n u o u s b r a k e s w i l l m a k e t h e s e s e r v i c e s s t i l l more "economic". The r a i l w a y s a r e a l s o " i n d i s p e n s a b l e " f o r t h e s e t r a f f i c s , m a n y of w h i c h a r e b a s i c t o t h e economy o f t h e c o u n t r y , f o r i t i s p r o b a b l e t h a t f o r v a r i o u s r e a s o n s , i n c l u d i n g t h e t y p e of t e r m i n a l f a c i l i t y r e q u i r e d , m a n y of them w o u l d f i n d i t h a r d t o use the road. 2 0 . E v e r y d a y , i n t o t a l , B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s h a u l some 60 m i l l i o n t o n - m i l e s of f r e i g h t f o r t h e i r c u s t o m e r s , and t h e i r f l e x i b i l i t y e n a b l e s t h e m t o d e a l w i t h s u c h g r e a t s u r g e s as t h e c o a l mined i n " b u l l w e e k s " and t h e b i g h a r v e s t movements. I t would'be manifestly impossible to t r a n s f e r these t r a f f i c s to road, e s p e c i a l l y when b i g s u r g e s a r e i n v o l v e d , w i t h o u t b r i n g i n g movement on t h e r o a d s , a t l e a s t i n t h e b i g i n d u s t r i a l a r e a s , t o a standstill. I n t h e p o r t s , a l s o , b o t h i m p o r t and e x p o r t t r a f f i c must i n c r e a s i n g l y be h a n d l e d by r a i l i f c o n ­ g e s t i o n i s t o be r e d u c e d , as the r e c e n t r e p o r t of t h e P o r t s E f f i c i e n c y Committee has emphasised. 2 1 . While t h e r e a r e , of c o u r s e , t r a f f i c s , especially m e r c h a n d i s e , which a r e w e l l s u i t e d to road t r a n s p o r t f o r economic r e a s o n s , t h e r a i l w a y s s t i l l h a v e an e s s e n t i a l function in providing the customer with a f a s t , r e l i a b l e and i n d i v i d u a l s e r v i c e f o r g e n e r a l merchandise t r a f f i c . The f u l l p o t e n t i a l i t i e s o f t h e r a i l w a y s y s t e m f o r c h e a p and s a f e movement of m a n u f a c t u r e d g o o d s i n t h e m o d e r n a g e l i e s i n t h e s o l u t i o n of t h e p r o b l e m of t r a n s h i p m e n t b e t w e e n r o a d a n d r a i l t h r o u g h t h e u s e of c o n t a i n e r s and s p e c i a l e q u i p m e n t o r even v e h i c l e s i n t e r c h a n g e a b l e b e t w e e n r o a d and r a i l , and I n t h e d e v e l o p ­ ment of r o a d - s e r v e d r a i l h e a d s . 2 2 . I n g e n e r a l i t can be s a i d t h a t i n t h e U n i t e d Kingdom, u n l i k e t h e United S t a t e s , t h e p a s s e n g e r s e r v i c e s i n themselves, prove the n e c e s s i t y f o r the railways. T h e c o n t r a s t i s b r o u g h t home when i t i s r e a l i s e d that the Southern Region c a r r y annually almost t h e same number of p a s s e n g e r s a s a l l t h e C l a s s I r a i l w a y s of t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . The r a i l w a y s a r e , and w i l l r e m a i n , t h e i d e a l m e t h o d of t r a n s p o r t f o r c a r r y i n g l a r g e n u m b e r s of p e o p l e t o and f r o m t h e i r work and w i t h o u t them a g r e a t p a r t of t h e e s s e n t i a l d a i l y and b u s i n e s s t r a v e l of t h e c o u n t r y a n d t h e b i g s e a s o n a l m o v e m e n t s of h o l i d a y m a k e r s and o t h e r s w o u l d b e v i r t u a l l y impossible. But t h e r a i l w a y s a r e a l s o i n d i s p e n s a b l e t o a g r e a t p a r t of t h e b a s i c f r e i g h t t r a f f i c s . They a r e e s s e n t i a l f o r b u l k f r e i g h t and a r e t h e i n d i s p e n s a b l e a l l y o f o t h e r f o r m s of m o v e m e n t i n m e e t i n g t h e t o t a l t r a n s p o r t r e q u i r e m e n t s of t h e c o u n t r y . Finally, the v;alue of t h e r a i l w a y s t o n a t i o n a l d e f e n c e , o r i n emergency, must n o t b e o v e r l o o k e d . Thus, despite the e n o r m o u s a n d r a p i d g r o w t h o f r o a d and a i r t r a n s p o r t , t h e r a i l w a y s w i l l a l w a y s , as f a r as can b e f o r e s e e n , .be a v i t a l p a r t of t h e c o u n t r y ' s t r a n s p o r t s y s t e m . 23' G i v e n t h e e x i s t i n g f r a m e w o r k of r e g u l a t i o n , t h e B r i t i s h T r a n s p o r t Commission a r e t a c k l i n g t h e p r o b l e m of a c h i e v i n g a p r o f i t a b l e b a s i s f o r t h e o p e r a t i o n of B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s u n d e r f o u r p r i n c i p a l headings :­ (a) Modernisation. ( b ) E l i m i n a t i o n of s e r v i c e s f o r w h i c h t h e r e i s no l o n g e r p u b l i c need or which can be more e f f i c i e n t l y performed b y o t h e r m e a n s of t r a n s p o r t , and d e v e l o p m e n t o f the remaining s e r v i c e s . ( c) Increased productivity. ( d ) R e l a x a t i o n o f s t a t u t o r y a n d o t h e r o b l i g a t i o n s , p a r t i c u l a r l y the i n t r o d u c t i o n of g r e a t e r f r e e d o m i n f i x i n g f a r e s and c h a r g i n g p o l i c y . T h e s e m e a s u r e s a r e o u t l i n e d i n s u c c e e d i n g c h a p t e r s and a f o r e c a s t i s g i v e n of t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h t h e y w i l l redress the present financial position. CHAPTER IV ; A. CORRECTIVE ACTION IN PROGRESS - RAILWAYS ; MODERNISATION T h e aim o f t h e P l a n f o r t h e M o d e r n i s a t i o n a n d R e - e q u i p m e n t of B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s may h e s i m p l y s t a t e d : The Commission a r e d e t e r m i n e d t o e x p l o i t t h e o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r r e - e q u i p m e n t which modern s c i e n c e a n d t e c h n i q u e s p r e s e n t , and t o t r a n s f o r m t h e o p e r a t i o n s of B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s so as t o o f f e r t h e p u b l i c a r a i l s e r v i c e s e c o n d t o n o n e , w h i l s t d e r i v i n g from t h e equipment t h e f u l l economic b e n e f i t i t can provide. C o n t i n u o u s s t u d y h a s b e e n g i v e n t o a l l a s p e c t s of o p e r a t i o n , and l i n e s of development- h a v e b e e n e s t a b l i s h e d w h i c h w i l l a d j u s t t h e p a t t e r n s o f t h e p a s s e n g e r and f r e i g h t s e r v i c e s t o t h e p r o b a b l e r e q u i r e m e n t s of t h e future. The P l a n i s s p r e a d over f i f t e e n y e a r s ; it is c o n c e i v e d a s an i n t e g r a t e d w h o l e , and i s n o t p r o p e r l y remunerati7/-e u n l e s s t r e a t e d a s s u c h , b u t i n i t s d e t a i l it is nevertheless flexible. I t i s already well under way; a f e w p r o j e c t s a r e a l r e a d y c o m p l e t e , and a g r e a t v o l u m e o f w o r k i s now i n p r o g r e s s w h i c h w i l l b e c o m p l e t e d , and b e g i n t o f r u c t i f y , i n a f e w y e a r s ' t i m e . Passenger Traffic ' The p r i n c i p a l o b j e c t i v e s of t h e P l a n improving the r a i l passenger s e r v i c e s are :­ ( a ) To m a k e s t i l l f a s t e r distance services t o make them m o r e punctual, thereby competitive power for and s a f e r t h e l o n g of B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s and c o m f o r t a b l e , c l e a n and enhancing their and p r o f i t a b i l i t y . ( b ) To c o m p l e t e t h e e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n of m o s t o f t h e v e r y i n t e n s e urban and suburban s e r v i c e s i n t h e m a j o r c e n t r e s of p o p u l a t i o n , and t o p r o v i d e f a s t e r and more f r e q u e n t diesel s u b u r b a n and i n t e r u r b a n t r a i n s e r v i c e s where e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n cannot be c a r r i e d o u t . ( c ) To r e c a s t e n t i r e l y t h e f o r m o f t h e f e e d e r and secondary l i n e services by s u b s t i t u t i n g for the infrequent stopping steam t r a i n a smaller, cheaper and more a t t r a c t i v e d i e s e l or e l e c t r i c unit. T h i s w i l l e l i m i n a t e o n e of t h e m o s t s e r i o u s d r a i n s on t h e e c o n o m y of t h e r a i l w a y s y s t e m , w h i l s t p r o v i d i n g a t t h e same t i m e an improved s e r v i c e . The p r i n c i p a l m e a n s o f a t t a i n i n g t h e s e o b j e c t i v e s l i e s i n t h e e l i m i n a t i o n of s t e a m a n d t h e s u b s t i t u t i o n of m o d e r n f o r m s of t r a c t i o n . The a d o p t i o n of d i e s e l and e l e c t r i c t r a c t i o n w i l l l e a d t o h i g h e r average s p e e d s , p u n c t u a l i t y and c l e a n l i n e s s . New t i m e t a b l e s , d e s i g n e d t o e x p l o i t t h e c a p a c i t y o f K 9 J el d i e s e l and e l e c t r i c t r a i n s t o c o v e r l a r g e m i l e a g e s without a t t e n t i o n , w i l l reduce operating costs whilst p r o v i d i n g g r e a t e r f r e q u e n c y of s e r v i c e s . The u l t i m a t e aim i s f o r l o n g d i s t a n c e m a i n l i n e p a s s e n g e r t r a i n s a t a v e r a g e s p e e d s o f 75 m . p . h . b e t w e e n s t o p s where t r a c k c o n d i t i o n s allow and where e c o n o m i c a l l y justified. In this connection, i t is noteworthy that t h e n u m b e r o f p a s s e n g e r t r a i n s i n 1956 w i t h s c h e d u l e d s t a r t - t o - s t o p s p e e d s of o v e r 60 m . p . h . i s 58 c o m p a r e d w i t h 20 i n 1 9 5 3 . 2 7 . F u r t h e r , r a i l t r a v e l w i l l b e made m o r e a t t r a c t i v e by improvements in t h e amenities provided for passengers. New c o a c h i n g s t o c k i s b e i n g d e s i g n e d a n d p r o t o t y p e s a r e now b e i n g c o n s t r u c t e d . These w i l l p r o v i d e f o r h i g h e r s t a n d a r d s of c o m f o r t and d e c o r a t i o n , I m p r o v e d h e a t i n g , l i g h t i n g a n d v e n t i l a t i o n , and r e d u c t i o n of n o i s e . At t h e same t i m e , s t a t i o n s w i l l be modernised, road a c c e s s and p a r k i n g f a c i l i t i e s i m p r o v e d and b e t t e r a r r a n g e m e n t s made f o r i s s u i n g t i c k e t s and r e s e r v i n g s e a t s . 2 8 . T h e f i r s t f r u i t s of m o d e r n i s a t i o n h a v e a l r e a d y b e e n s e e n i n t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n of d i e s e l m u l t i p l e u n i t v e h i c l e s of w h i c h n e a r l y 300 a r e i n u s e i n v a r i o u s p a r t s of t h e c o u n t r y . Wherever they have been brought i n t o s e r v i c e , t h e r e has b e e n ample e v i d e n c e of p u b l i c appreciation. T h e e x t e n t o f t h e p o p u l a r i t y of t h e n e w d i e s e l s e r v i c e s can b e gauged from t h e f o l l o w i n g e x a m p l e s of i n c r e a s e s i n t r a f f i c s i n c e t h e i r i n t r o d u c t i o n : Percentage Service Leeds-BradfordHarrogate Carlisle-Silloth O a r l i s l e - W h i t ehaven Garlisle-PenrithWorkington King's Lynn-WellsNorwich Bi rmingham-Li c h f i e l d Bury-Bacup 2 9 . Inaugurated Journeys Increase Receipts 14. 6.54 2 9 . 11 . 5 4 7. 2.55 144 66 44 100 44 62 1 .55 84 104 9.55 5. 3.56 6. 2 . 5 6 . 40 30 210 208 132 164 3. 19. Orders already placed c a t e r for the provision of 2 , 4 0 0 m u l t i p l e u n i t d i e s e l v e h i c l e s b y t h e end of 1 9 5 8 f o r u s e on s e r v i c e s t h r o u g h o u t t h e c o u n t r y . The p r o p o s e d s e r v i c e s a r e s h o w n i n some d e t a i l i n A p p e n d i x A. They i n c l u d e i n t e r c i t y s e r v i c e s b e t w e e n E d i n b u r g h and G l a s g o w and b e t w e e n B i r m i n g h a m and S w a n s e a , a s w e l l a s o t h e r s e r v i c e s between i m p o r t a n t c e n t r e s such as London and H a s t i n g s ; G l a s g o w and G i r v a n . Suburban d i e s e l s e r v i c e s are proposed in South Wales; t h e B r i s t o l and Birmingham a r e a s ; t h e West R i d i n g ; T e e s - s i d e and f o r t h e M a n c h e s t e r and N o t t i n g h a m a r e a s ; and b r a n c h services are projected in East Anglia, North Wales, H a m p s h i r e and C u m b e r l a n d . The t o t a l number of d i e s e l m u l t i p l e u n i t v e h i c l e s a l l o w e d f o r i n t h e p l a n i s /+56OO, a l l of w h i c h s h o u l d b e i n u s e b y t h e end o f 1 9 6 1 . P l a n n i n g i s now i n h a n d f o r t h e u s e o f t h o s e t o b o i n t r o d u c e d a f t e r 1958. F o r e x a m p l e , t h e London Midland Region propose d i e s e l s e r v i c e s connecting L i v e r p o o l , L e e d s and B r a d f o r d , a n d B i r m i n g h a m , , L i v e r p o o l a n d Manchester; and t h e N o r t h E a s t e r n R e g i o n a r e engaged with the other Regions concerned i n p l a n n i n g the LeedsL i v e r p o o l and H u l l - L i v e r p o o l s e r v i c e s . 3 0 . P l a n s a r e a l s o w e l l advanced f o r the i n t r o d u c t i o n of a s m a l l d i e s e l r a i l c a r s p e c i a l l y s u i t e d t o b r a n c h l i n e s and o t h e r s t o p p i n g s e r v i c e s i n r u r a l a r e a s , w h e r e , i f t r a f f i c by r a i l i s t o c o n t i n u e , t h e h i g h e s t d e g r e e of o p e r a t i n g economy must b e p r a c t i s e d . 31* A t h i r d t y p e of d i e s e l t r a i n i s e n v i s a g e d , o f f e r i n g h i g h s p e e d and s p e c i a l a m e n i t i e s . Accordingly, p l a n s a r e b e i n g d e v e l o p e d f o r t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n of de l u x e multiple u n i t d i e s e l e x p r e s s e s t o o p e r a t e at h i g h speed on s e l e c t e d s e r v i c e s b e t w e e n i m p o r t a n t c i t i e s . These w i l l i n c o r p o r a t e a l l t h a t i s b e s t in modern design f o r t h e c o m f o r t and c o n v e n i e n c e of t h e t r a v e l l e r . 3 2 , The programme f o r e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n i s o u t l i n e d i n Appendix A, from which i t w i l l b e seen t h a t e l e c t r i ­ f i c a t i o n on t h e m a i n l i n e s b e t w e e n E u s t o n , M a n c h e s t e r and L i v e r p o o l , a n d K i n g ' s C r o s s , L e e d s a n d Y o r k , w i l l n o t b e c o m p l e t e d u n t i l t h e l a t e r s t a g e s of t h e P l a n have been reached. T h i s i s i n e v i t a b l e i n v i e w of t h e g r e a t mass of e n g i n e e r i n g w o r k t h e y c o m p r i s e . Diesel t r a c t i o n w i l l , t o some e x t e n t , s p a n t h e g a p , a n d e l e c t r i c t r a c t i o n w i l l be brought i n , in s t a g e s , as sections are completed. 3 3 . elcctrifi­ Work i s w e l l u n d e r w a y i n t h e o t h e r cation schemes. I n J a n u a r y , 1957? t h e e x t e n s i o n f r o m Shenfield t o Southend w i l l be completed, and d u r i n g the p e r i o d b e t w e e n i 9 6 0 and 1 9 6 2 , m a n y new e l e c t r i f i e d l i n e s w i l l h a v e come i n t o s e r v i c e , i n c l u d i n g t h e e x t e n s i o n s t o t h e Kent C o a s t , ' t h e Glasgow s u b u r b a n l i n e s , t h e London T i l b u r y and S o u t h e n d L i n e and t h e E n f i e l d , Chingford, H e r t f o r d and B i s h o p S t o r t f o r d b r a n c h . 3U. T h e f i n a n c i a l r e s u l t s of a l l t h e s e m e a s u r e s in connection with passenger t r a f f i c w i l l be decisive. The i n v e s t m e n t i n d i e s e l m u l t i p l e u n i t t r a i n s f o r stopping s e r v i c e s i s expected t o r e s u l t in immediate and v e r y g r e a t s a v i n g s . E c o n o m i e s w i l l a l s o b e made on t h e s u b u r b a n s e r v i c e s , a n d t h e p r o f i t a b i l i t y o f t h e long distance services w i l l be enhanced. All in a l l , a t o t a l i m p r o v e m e n t of s o m e £30m. a y e a r m a y b e predicted with confidence as the eventual outcome. T h i s i s h a r d l y s u r p r i s i n g whon i t i s r e m e m b e r e d t h a t t h e r e a r e t h e t e c h n i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t s of t w e n t y y e a r s to gather in. Freight Traffic The m a i n o b j e c t i v e s f o r t h e m o d e r n i s e d services are r e l i a b i l i t y ; speed; and e c o n o m i c These w i l l be achieved by ;­ freight operation. ( a ) s p e e d i n g u p t h e s e r v i c e s b y p r o v i d i n g a l l wagons w i t h c o n t i n u o u s b r a k e s ; ( b ) e l i m i n a t i n g d e l a y s b y p r o v i d i n g new and extending existing marshalling yards; ( o ) b u i l d i n g t h e l a r g e s t w a g o n s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f t r a d e and industry; ( d ) r e d u c i n g t h e n u m b e r of s t a t i o n s d e a l i n g with f r e i g h t business by concentrating on m o d e r n i s e d r a i l h e a d s , o p e r a t e d i n conjunction with r a d i a l road s e r v i c e s ; ( e ) i n c r e a s i n g t h e u s e of c o n t a i n e r s and o t h e r modern d e v i c e s f o r r a p i d t r a n s f e r of l o a d s b e t w e e n road and r a i l w i t h o u t h a n d l i n g the goods; ( f ) d e v e l o p i n g m e c h a n i s e d h a n d l i n g m e t h o d s t o t h e maximum e x t e n t . By t h e s e m e a n s i t w i l l b e p o s s i b l e t o o b t a i n a q u i c k e r t u r n r o u n d of w a g o n s , g r e a t e r c a r r y i n g c a p a c i t y , and i n c o n s e q u e n c e a s u b s t a n t i a l r e d u c t i o n i n t h e wagon f l e e t . F u r t h e r , by o f f e r i n g t r a d e r s a f a s t e r and more r e l i a b l e s e r v i c e , and b y t a k i n g a d v a n t a g e o f t h e new c h a r g e s scheme, more t r a f f i c w i l l be a t t r a c t e d t o r a i l . The d e v e l o p m e n t of f r e i g h t t r a i n o p e r a t i o n , t o be b o t h e f f i c i e n t and e c o n o m i c , r e q u i r e s a c c e l e r a t i o n of t i m i n g s , r e g u l a r i t y of s e r v i c e and g r e a t e r u t i l i s a ­ t i o n of m o t i v e p o w e r a n d r o l l i n g s t o c k . One of t h e more i m p o r t a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o t h e s e aims i s t h e f i t t i n g of the continuous brake to a l l freight rolling stock. D e t a i l s o f t h e p r o g r a m m e f o r t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n of t h e vacuum b r a k e a r e . g i v e n i n A p p e n d i x A. By 1 9 5 5 a b o u t 181,1+00 w a g o n s , o n e - s i x t h o f t h e t o t a l f l e e t , h a d b e e n f i t t e d with continuous brakes. Over the next ten y e a r s , b r a k e s w i l l b e f i t t e d t o new and e x i s t i n g wagons a t a r a t e of o v e r 60,000 a y e a r . T h i s programme w i l l b r i n g a r a p i d i n c r e a s e i n t h e number of b r a k e d t r a i n s , which should lead t o a s t e a d y improvement in .the e f f i c i e n c y of b o t h f r e i g h t a n d p a s s e n g e r t r a i n o p e r a t i o n b y e l i m i n a t i n g t h e d e l a y i n g e f f e c t of t h e s l o w , u n b r a k e d goods t r a i n . The f r e i g h t t r a i n of t h e f u t u r e w i l l n o r m a l l y t r a v e l a t s p e e d s u p t o 60 m . p . h , , w i t h i m p r o v e d p u n c t u a l i t y and i n g r e a t e r s a f e t y . T h e P l a n p r o v i d e s f o r t h e e l i m i n a t i o n of m a n y old m a r s h a l l i n g y a r d s and t h e i r replacement by a s m a l l e r number of m o d e r n y a r d s p r o v i d e d w i t h m e c h a n i s e d b r a k i n g e q u i p m e n t and a d v a n c e d c o m m u n i c a t i o n s y s t e m s . Apart from t h e d i r e c t s a v i n g s r e s u l t i n g from t h e i n c r e a s e d e f f i c i e n c y of o p e r a t i o n w i t h i n t h e y a r d s , c o n s i d e r a b l e b e n e f i t s w i l l a c c r u e f r o m t h e c l o s i n g of o l d and i n e f f i c i e n t y a r d s and t h e s p e e d i n g u p of t r a f f i c . 3 8 . S u r v e y s i n p r o g r e s s of t h e g e n e r a l p a t t e r n of f r e i g h t o p e r a t i o n t h r o u g h o u t t h e c o u n t r y have l e d up t o now t o t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of new m a r s h a l l i n g y a r d s b e i n g p u t i n h a n d a t T e m p l e M i l l s a n d R i p p l e L a n e on t h e E a s t e r n R e g i o n , T h o r n t o n a n d M i l l e r h i l l on t h e S c o t t i s h R e g i o n , a n d Margam a n d S e v e r n T u n n e l J u n c t i o n on t h e W e s t e r n R e g i o n . 3 9 . E i g h t y - e i g h t p e r c e n t , of t h e t o t a l f r e i g h t t o n n a g e c a r r i e d b y B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s o r i g i n a t e s from p r i v a t e s i d i n g s and t h i s i n c l u d e s p r a c t i c a l l y a l l t h e coal t r a f f i c . F i f t y - e i g h t p e r c e n t , of t h e t o t a l freight tonnage i s delivered to p r i v a t e s i d i n g s , i n c l u d i n g h a l f of t h e c o a l t r a f f i c . The s i d i n g s t h e m s e l v e s , and t h e l o a d i n g a r r a n g e m e n t s t h e y s e r v e l i m i t t h e s i z e , t y p e and l a d e n w e i g h t of t h e wagons t h a t u s e them. This i n f l u e n c e goes f a r to account f o r t h e s m a l l s i z e of m i n e r a l and g e n e r a l m e r c h a n d i s e wagons i n u s e in B r i t a i n . In seeking s o l u t i o n s to the p r o b l e m of i n c r e a s i n g t h e p a y l o a d of r a i l w a g o n s , a t t e n t i o n i s b e i n g f o c u s s e d on h i g h e r c a p a c i t y w a g o n s . W h e r e v e r r e g u l a r f l o w s of t r a f f i c j u s t i f y , a n d l o c a l c o n d i t i o n s p e r m i t , t h e u s e of w a g o n s of kO a n d 5 0 - t o n c a p a c i t y working in r e g u l a r c i r c u i t s , t h e s e are b e i n g introduced. The movement of i r o n o r e from Tyne Dock t o C o n s e t t i n 5 6 - t o n s e l f - d i s c h a r g i n g wagons i s an illustration. F o r o t h e r movements of m i n e r a l s , t h e new 2k^-ton wagon i s p r o v i n g i t s w o r t h a n d o v e r 2 , 5 0 0 of them a r e a l r e a d y i n s e r v i c e . The p r o d u c t i o n of t h e 1 6 - t o n g e n e r a l s e r v i c e a l l - s t e e l m i n e r a l wagon w i l l b e d i s c o n t i n u e d i n f a v o u r of a wagon o f 2 1 / 2 2 - t o n c a p a c i t y which i s b e i n g d e s i g n e d f o r s e r v i c e s to t e r m i n a l s u n a b l e , b y r e a s o n of t h e i r s i z e , t o a c c e p t t h e 2ki-ton wagons. S i m i l a r l y , new v e h i c l e s f i t t e d f o r a i r d i s c h a r g e a r e being introduced for s p e c i a l t r a f f i c s such as cement, a n d an i n t e n s i v e d r i v e i s b e i n g m a d e i n t o t h e m e a n s o f a t t r a c t i n g t o r a i l t r a n s p o r t b r i c k s , s h e e t s t e e l and b u l k t r a f f i c s of a s i m i l a r n a t u r e . i+0. Terminal costs for f r e i g h t t r a f f i c , which i n c l u d e t e r m i n a l h a u l a g e , s h u n t i n g and m a r s h a l l i n g , a b s o r b some luD p e r c e n t , o f p r e s e n t r a i l c o s t s ( e x c l u d i n g t r a c k ) i n t h e c a s e o f f u l l - w a g o n l o a d s , and n e a r l y 70 p e r c e n t , i n t h e c a s e of l e s s - t h a n - w a g o n l o a d t r a f f i c where goods have to be s o r t e d f o r f o r w a r d i n g . A r e c e n t a n a l y s i s t a k e n d u r i n g one week of t r a f f i c a t a s e l e c t i o n of t y p i c a l s t a t i o n s h a s s h o w n t h a t 60 p e r c e n t , of them d e a l t w i t h l e s s t h a n t w e n t y wagons d u r i n g the p eriod. U1. There a r e , t h e r e f o r e , conclusive arguments for c l o s i n g m a n y g o o d s s t a t i o n s a n d t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n of r a i l f r e i g h t a t a s m a l l e r n u m b e r of m o d e r n f r e i g h t t e r m i n a l s s e r v e d b y r o a d and e q u i p p e d w i t h m e c h a n i c a l handling equipment. These f r e i g h t t e r m i n a l s w i l l be served by f a s t t r a i n s . Direct s e r v i c e s w i l l be o p e r a t e d , wherever p o s s i b l e , to keep time l o s s e s in m a r s h a l l i n g t r a i n s to a minimum. Much p r e p a r a t o r y w o r k i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e new f r e i g h t t e r m i n a l s i s i n h a n d . In the Eastern Region, schemes for m o d e r n i s a t i o n at L i n c o l n , Grimsby and P e t e r b o r o u g h h a v e b e e n a p p r o v e d a n d w o r k h a s commenced on a new r a i l h e a d d e p o t a t R i p p l e L a n e , n e a r Barking. I n t h e L o n d o n M i d l a n d R e g i o n , s c h e m e s f o r new goods t e r m i n a l s a r e i n p r e p a r a t i o n f o r M a n c h e s t e r , S t o k e , Birmingham and London ( D u d d i n g H i l l ) . In the S o u t h e r n R e g i o n , p l a n s a r e in hand f o r t h e development of a new d e p o t a t C r a w l e y . Similar developments in o t h e r Regions a r e i n hand f o r N e w c a s t l e , S t o c k t o n , D u n d e e , M e r t h y r and P l y m o u t h . T h e m o v e m e n t of t r a f f i c t o a n d f r o m t h e p o r t s h a s b e e n u n d e r c l o s e e x a m i n a t i o n , and r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s of t h e F e d e r a t i o n o f B r i t i s h I n d u s t r i e s , t o g e t h e r w i t h r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s of t h e C o m m i s s i o n , a r e e n g a g e d i n d e t e r m i n i n g means of a v o i d i n g t h e s e r i o u s road c o n ­ g e s t i o n n e a r t h e p r i n c i p a l p o r t s , b y d i v e r t i n g some o f the business to r a i l . A s p e c i a l depot has been opened i n t h e B i r m i n g h a m a r e a f o r t h e r e c e p t i o n of s m a l l c o n s i g n m e n t s and t h e i r s u b s e q u e n t l o a d i n g i n t h r o u g h wagons t o t h e p o r t s w i t h a " G r e e n Arrow" a s s u r a n c e of delivery. F r e i g h t t e r m i n a l s c a t e r f o r t h e t r a n s f e r from one form of t r a n s p o r t t o a n o t h e r : b e t w e e n r o a d and r a i l . T h e s i m p l i f i c a t i o n of t h i s t r a n s f e r t o s u i t t h e n e e d s o f ^the c o n s i g n o r or c o n s i g n e e and to a c c e l e r a t e t r a n s i t i s one of t h e b a s i c p r o b l e m s of f r e i g h t m o v e m e n t . For full l o a d s t h e o b j e c t i v e i s t o d e v e l o p new t y p e s of c o n t a i n e r s o r d e m o u n t a b l e b o d i e s w h i c h c a n b e s w i f t l y and m e c h a n i c a l l y t r a n s f e r r e d b e t w e e n r o a d and r a i l v e h i c l e s , so e l i m i n a t i n g t h e h a n d l i n g of t h e g o o d s . The new c o n t a i n e r s w i l l c a t e r f o r h i g h e r p a y l o a d s a n d w i l l b e of l i g h t e r c o n ­ s t r u c t i o n than the older types. Freight terminal design, l a y o u t a n d e q u i p m e n t w i l l m a t c h t h e s e new d e v e l o p m e n t s i n l a y o u t of s i d i n g s , r o a d w a y s , c o n t a i n e r p a r k s and mechanical appliances. P r o p o s a l s f o r p i l o t schemes f o r t h e h a n d l i n g of c o n t a i n e r t r a f f i c u n d e r modern c o n d i t i o n s a r e i n c o u r s e of p r e p a r a t i o n . T h e r a i l w a y s d e a l a n n u a l l y w i t h many m i l l i o n s of s m a l l c o n s i g n m e n t s , w h i c h a r e a n d w i l l c o n t i n u e t o b e an i n t e g r a l p a r t of t h e t r a d e of t h e c o u n t r y . The a s s e m b l y of s m a l l c o n s i g n m e n t s i n t o t r u n k h a u l a g e l o a d s i n v o l v e s h a n d l i n g o p e r a t i o n s c o s t l y i n manpower. These s e r v i c e s w i l l be h i g h l y m e c h a n i s e d . Railheads for s m a l l consignments w i l l be equipped w i t h power o p e r a t e d c o n v e y o r b e l t s , s t i l l a g e s , p o w e r t r u c k s and f o r k l i f t trucks. P l a n s f o r d e v e l o p m e n t of s u c h t e r m i n a l s a r e actively in hand. T h e f i n a n c i a l r e s u l t s of t h e f o r e g o i n g c h a n g e s i n f r e i g h t t r a n s p o r t w i l l a c c r u e more s l o w l y than the r e s u l t s on t h e p a s s e n g e r s i d e . I n d e e d , i t was t h o u g h t when t h e P l a n was p r e p a r e d t h a t i n t h e e a r l i e s t s t a g e s t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s a n d d i s l o c a t i o n s of t h e c h a n g e s t o b e m a d e wou3.d a b s o r b a l l t h e i m m e d i a t e b e n e f i t s . However, t h e u l t i m a t e f i n a n c i a l i m p r o v e m e n t on t h e p r e s e n t p o s i t i o n , r e s u l t i n g from f r e i g h t m o d e r n i s a t i o n , w i l l h e g r e a t , a p a r t f r o m t h e b e n e f i t s t o t h e c u s t o m e r of i m p r o v e d s e r v i c e , a n d i s a s s e s s e d a t a minimum o f £ 5 5 m . a year. Financial effect of the Modernisation Flan, T a k i n g i n t o a c c o u n t t h e i m p r o v e m e n t of £ 3 0 m , r e f e r r e d t o i n p a r a g r a p h 3k t h e t o t a l i m p r o v e m e n t f r o m b o t h p a s s e n g e r a n d f r e i g h t s e r v i c e s i s t h u s some £ 8 5 m , T h i s i s b e f o r e a l l o w i n g f o r i n t e r e s t on t h e c a p i t a l involved. The e x p e c t e d c a p i t a l e x p e n d i t u r e s h a v e b e e n reviewed once more. The t o t a l e x p e n d i t u r e u n d e r t h e P l a n when i t w a s p u b l i s h e d w a s p u t a t a b o u t £ 1 , 2 0 0 m . a n d t h e amount t o b e b o r r o w e d , a l l o w i n g f o r i n t e r n a l s o u r c e s of f i n a n c e s u c h a s d e p r e c i a t i o n p r o v i s i o n s , a t a b o u t £800m. T h e s e f i g u r e s a r e now l i k e l y t o b e i n c r e a s e d , though not g r e a t l y . As t o t h e r a t e o f i n t e r e s t on t h e borrowings, the Plan allowed for f i n a n c i a l charges at 5 p e r c e n t , p e r a n n u m , a n d o n p a s t e x p e r i e n c e i t may b e s u p p o s e d t h a t t h e l o n g - t e r m r a t e o f i n t e r e s t w i l l , on the average over t h e y e a r s , be l e s s than t h i s f i g u r e . On b a l a n c e , t h e r e s e e m s n o r e a s o n t o a l t e r t h e a n n u a l c h a r g e of £ h O m . p r e v i o u s l y i n c l u d e d i n t h e P l a n . As t o t h e p h r a s i n g of t h e d e v e l o p m e n t p r o g r a m m e , it h a s b e e n c o n s i d e r a b l y a c c e l e r a t e d s i n c e i t was f i r s t p u b l i s h e d and i t i s g a t h e r i n g momentum. An i n d i c a t i o n of t h e p r o b a b l e p r o g r e s s i s g i v e n i n A p p e n d i x B . As t o t h e f i n a n c i a l b e n e f i t t o be d e r i v e d from t h e s e e x p e n d ­ i t u r e s . , h o w e v e r , t h e i n e v i t a b l e d e l a y b e t w e e n s o w i n g and r e a p i n g w i l l mean t h a t d u r i n g t h e f i r s t s t a g e - t h e p e r i o d t o i 9 6 0 o r 1961 - t h e f i n a n c i a l c h a r g e s on t h e b o r r o w i n g s , added t o t h e u n i d e n t i f i a b l e b u t u n a v o i d a b l e c o s t s of d i s l o c a t i o n and d i s t u r b a n c e , m u s t b e e x p e c t e d to exceed the improvements in revenue. After this p e r i o d , h o w e v e r , t h e g a p w i l l b e e l i m i n a t e d and t h e f i n a n c e s of t h e Commission w i l l b e s t r e n g t h e n e d by a r a p i d l y i n c r e a s i n g n e t b e n e f i t u n t i l , b y 1970, a n e t b e n e f i t o f a t l e a s t £k5w* s h o u l d b e a v a i l a b l e . I t s h o u l d p e r h a p s b e added t h a t t h e Commission a r e f u l l y c o n s c i o u s t h a t t h e p h y s i c a l p r o c e s s e s of m o d e r n i s a t i o n and d e v e l o p m e n t must be a c c o m p a n i e d b y s i m i l a r a d j u s t m e n t s i n t h e i r o r g a n i s a t i o n , m e t h o d s and outlook. I f at one time t h e s e i n t a n g i b l e changes were thought to present g r e a t e r d i f f i c u l t y , perhaps, than t h e p h y s i c a l c h a n g e s , t h e C o m m i s s i o n a r e now g l a d t o r e p o r t t h a t t h e r e a r e a l r e a d y s i g n s of a f r e s h o u t l o o k and a new d e t e r m i n a t i o n w h i c h w i l l b e of d e c i s i v e importance. CHAPTER IV B . (Continued) ELIMINATION OF SERVICES FOR WHICH THERE I S NO LONGER PUBLIC NEED OR WHICH CAN B E F O R E EFFICIENTLY PERFORMED BY OTHER J/JEANS OF TRANSPORT, AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE REMAINING RAILWAY SERVICES 5 0 . The o p e r a t i o n b y more economic m e a n s , o r t h e e l i m i n a t i o n , of u n r e m u n e r a t i v e p a s s e n g e r s e r v i c e s i s an e s s e n t i a l f e a t u r e of t h e M o d e r n i s a t i o n P l a n and i t i s p e r t i n e n t t o examine t h e p r o g r e s s t h a t h a s b e e n made and t h e r e s u l t s t h a t may b e e x p e c t e d . I t has to be remembered t h a t B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s , b r o a d l y s p e a k i n g , were developed a c e n t u r y b e f o r e p o w e r - d r i v e n road t r a n s p o r t . T h e l a t t e r , r e q u i r i n g n o s p e c i a l i s e d t r a c k and w i t h t h e s i n g l e v e h i c l e as i t s n a t u r a l u n i t , i s c l e a r l y s u p e r i o r t o r a i l i n c o n v e n i e n c e and c h e a p n e s s of o p e r a t i o n f o r s h o r t e r distance transport in thinly populated r u r a l areas. The P l a n i t s e l f r e f e r r e d t o " p u r p o s e f u l c o n c e n t r a t i o n on t h o s e f u n c t i o n s w h i c h t h e R a i l w a y s c a n b e made t o p e r f o r m more e f f i c i e n t l y t h a n o t h e r f o r m s of t r a n s p o r t " ( p a r a g r a p h 6) a n d f o r e t o l d " a m a r k e d r e d u c t i o n i n t h e s t o p p i n g and b r a n c h l i n e s e r v i c e s which a r e l i t t l e u s e d b y t h e p u b l i c a n d w h i c h , on a n y d i s p a s s i o n a t e r e v i e w of t h e s i t u a t i o n , s h o u l d be l a r g e l y h a n d e d o v e r t o r o a d t r a n s p o r t " ( p a r a g r a p h 1 2h) * Nevertheless, a r a i l w a y t r a c k i s a n a t i o n a l a s s e t , and i t i s e s s e n t i a l t h a t b e f o r e any s e r v i c e i s withdrawn e v e r y means of making i t r e m u n e r a t i v e should have been examined. 51 * T h e r e a r e f o u r m e t h o d s of d e a l i n g w i t h t h e s e unremunerative services. The f i r s t i s t o r e - c a s t t h e s t e a m p a s s e n g e r s e r v i c e s t o g i v e a b e t t e r u s e of m a n ­ p o w e r , r o l l i n g s t o c k and e q u i p m e n t . The s e c o n d i s t o i n t r o d u c e d i e s e l and e l e c t r i c t r a c t i o n a n d , where appropriate, l i g h t railway methods. The t h i r d i s t o w i t h d r a w t r a i n s and s u b s t i t u t e r o a d s e r v i c e s . The f o u r t h , a p p l i c a b l e t o suburban a r e a s , i s to o r g a n i s e a f u l l y c o - o r d i n a t e d r o a d and r a i l s y s t e m . Action is b e i n g t a k e n on a l l t h e s e m e t h o d s . 5 2 . The f o l l o w i n g t a b l e i n d i c a t e s w i t h d r a w a l of p a s s e n g e r s e r v i c e s s i n c e the measure 19h8 : ­ of Region Eastern London North Midland Eastern Scottish Southern Western R o u t e m i l e s open t o p a s s e n g e r and freight traffic i n 19U8 266.. 390 U06 U88 172 322 3,01+9 J+,736 1 ,922 3,62U 2,278 a,, 021 19,630 Note; Route miles over which passenger s e r v i c e s have been w i t h d r a w n s i n c e 19U8 2 0kh 3 When R e g i o n a l b o u n d a r i e s w e r e r e - d r a w n i n 1950, t h i s i n v o l v e d t h e t r a n s f e r of r o u t e m i l e a g e from one R e g i o n t o another. I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e r e was a s u b s t a n t i a l t r a n s f e r to the North Eastern Region. F u r t h e r i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e a c t i o n t a k e n i n e a c h i s given in the ensuing p a r a g r a p h s . Region 5 3 . Eastern Region. I n 1,9*4-8, 905 p a s s e n g e r s t a t i o n s were open; 175 o f t h e s e h a v e s i n c e b e e n closed. D i e s e l cars a r e a l r e a d y r u n n i n g , or w i l l be r u n n i n g w i t h i n t h e next two y e a r s , o v e r p r a c t i c a l l y t h e w h o l e of t h e r e m a i n i n g b r a n c h l i n e s and m u c h o f t h e s e c o n d a r y m i l e a g e of t h e R e g i o n . They w i l l reduce o p e r a t i n g c o s t s s u b s t a n t i a l l y and b r i n g i n a d d i t i o n a l business * 5k* London Midland R e g i o n . I t i s expected that a f u r t h e r 20 s e r v i c e s w i l l b e w i t h d r a w n c o m p l e t e l y o r i n p a r t , i n v o l v i n g 1,250,000 t r a i n m i l e s a y e a r . Mean­ w h i l e , d i e s e l c a r s a r e b e i n g i n t r o d u c e d on a v a r i e t y o f s e r v i c e s , e . g . , i n West Cumberland and b e t w e e n B u r y and Bacup. These cars are a t t r a c t i n g s u b s t a n t i a l additional business. 55* North Eastern Region. I n 1952, a b o u t 2^ m i l l i o n t r a i n m i l e s a y e a r o u t o f a t o t a l of o v e r 12f m i l l i o n were running at a heavy l o s s . Since then the R e g i o n have been a c t i v e l y engaged i n c u t t i n g out h o p e l e s s l y u n p r o f i t a b l e t r a i n m i l e s and i n d e v e l o p i n g m u l t i p l e u n i t d i e s e l s e r v i c e s where p r o s p e c t s a r e more promising. The R e g i o n h a v e a l r e a d y w i t h d r a w n 1^ m i l l i o n t r a i n m i l e s a y e a r , a n d a n o t h e r -g- m i l l i o n w i l l p r o b a b l y be withdrawn in the near f u t u r e . 56, Scottish Region. Some f u r t h e r e c o n o m i e s a r e e x p e c t e d f r o m t h e w i t h d r a w a l of o t h e r s e r v i c e s e s p e c i a l l y from t h e c l o s i n g of s t a t i o n s , b u t d i e s e l c a r s w i l l b e i n t r o d u c e d w h e r e t h e c a s e f o r them i s e s t a b l i s h e d a n d an e x p e r i m e n t i s b e i n g made w i t h b a t t e r y - e l e c t r i c r a i l c a r s i n c o - o p e r a t i o n w i t h t h e N o r t h of S c o t l a n d H y d r o - E l e c t r i c Board. 5 7 . Southern Region. T h r e e more b r a n c h l i n e s and e i g h t s t a t i o n s a r e l i k e l y t o be c l o s e d , b u t t h e s e a r e m a r g i n a l c a s e s and, s u b j e c t t o any major change i n t r a f f i c s , - t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s of f u r t h e r e c o n o m i e s i n this direction are limited. 5 8 . Western Region. Out of 1 , 5 1 4 p a s s e n g e r s t a t i o n s a n d h a l t s o p e n i n 1 9 4 8 , 191 h a v e b e e n c l o s e d . A c o m p r e h e n s i v e r e v i e w i s now i n h a n d . The s e r v i c e s a l r e a d y u n d e r e x a m i n a t i o n a f f e c t 316 s t a t i o n s . A f u r t h e r 583 s t a t i o n s a r e a f f e c t e d b y s e r v i c e s y e t t o b e r e v i e w e d , m a k i n g a t o t a l of 899 s t a t i o n s . A b o u t 20 branch l i n e s are included in the review. In addition t o t h e p o s s i b l e w i t h d r a w a l of s e r v i c e s , c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s b e i n g g i v e n t o t h e i m p r o v e m e n t of n e t r e c e i p t s b y r e - c a s t i n g t i m e t a b l e s or i n t r o d u c i n g d i e s e l s e r v i c e s . 5 9 . T h e r e s u l t of a l l t h e s e m e a s u r e s w i l l b e a s u b s t a n t i a l r e d u c t i o n of o p e r a t i n g c o s t s a c c o m p a n i e d , i t i s h o p e d , b y e x p a n s i o n , of t r a f f i c . The a c t i v i t i e s o f t h e R e g i o n s a r e n o t l i m i t e d t o t h e f i g u r e s q u o t e d and t h e w h o l e s u b j e c t i s a m a t t e r of c o n t i n u a l r e v i e w a n d progress. I t must be n o t e d t h a t t h e f i n a n c i a l j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r t h e M o d e r n i s a t i o n P l a n made a l l o w a n c e s f o r the c o n s i d e r a b l e b e n e f i t s a r i s i n g from t h e s e m e a s u r e s t h i s i s brought to account in. the figures given in p a r a g r a p h 47. above. H o w e v e r , t h e w i t h d r a w a l of u n r e m u n e r a t i v e s e r v i c e s , which no a l t e r n a t i v e method can r e d e e m , h a s r e c e n t l y b e e n a c c e l e r a t e d , t h a n k s i n l a r g e m e a s u r e t o t h e s u p p o r t g i v e n b y ' t h e M i n i s t e r of T r a n s p o r t ' a n d C i v i l A v i a t i o n and i t i s r e a s o n a b l e t o c o u n t u p o n an a d d i t i o n a l n e t s a v i n g of some £3m. a y e a r b y t h e end o f t h e n e x t s i x y e a r s , a t t h e end o f w h i c h t h e ijrocess w i l l be more or l e s s c o m p l e t e . C . 6 0 . 61* 6 2 . INCREASED PRODUCTIVITY The i n c r e a s e s i n o u t p u t p e r h e a d w h i c h h a v e been r e c o r d e d i n t h i s c o u n t r y s i n c e t h e war h a v e l a r g e l y b e e n t h e r e s u l t of t h e r e m o v a l of b o t t l e n e c k s and t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n of new e q u i p m e n t . The M o d e r n i s a t i o n P l a n f o r B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s t a k e s a c c o u n t of t h e s e f a c t o r s to a c o n s i d e r a b l e e x t e n t and t h i s s e c t i o n of t h e p a p e r deals only with i n c r e a s e s in p r o d u c t i v i t y which are d i v o r c e d from m o d e r n i s a t i o n . I t i s d i f f i c u l t t o m e a s u r e t h e o u t p u t of a r a i l w a y s y s t e m a s a w h o l e , s t i l l l e s s t h a t o f s o m e of i t s components, such as the s i g n a l l i n g system; but - u s i n g a c o m b i n a t i o n of p a s s e n g e r a n d f r e i g h t c a r r y i n g s a s a m e a s u r e , i t i s c a l c u l a t e d t h a t s i n c e 1948 t h e o u t p u t p e r h e a d on t h e r a i l w a y s o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s h a s r i s e n , i n s p i t e of l a r g e e x p e n d i t u r e , b y l e s s t h a n one p e r c e n t , p e r annum. In Prance, with a large scale modernisation p r o g r a m m e , w i t h an economy r e c o v e r i n g from t h e d e v a s t a t i o n s o f w a r and w i t h m a n y s t a f f d e c l a r e d r e d u n d a n t , an i n c r e a s e o f some f o u r p e r c e n t , p e r annum h a s b e e n a c h i e v e d s i n c e 1948. On a s i m i l a r b a s i s o f comparison, i t i s estimated that B r i t i s h Railways a c h i e v e d an i n c r e a s e o f . " b r o a d l y t w o p e r c e n t , p e r o v e r t h e same p e r i o d . have annum 6 3 . R a i l w a y management keeps u n d e r review t h e r e s u l t s a c h i e v e d w i t h e x i s t i n g e q u i p m e n t and a p p l i e s t h e p r i n c i p l e s o f Work S t u d y . Further, the British R a i l w a y s P r o d u c t i v i t y C o u n c i l i s now p r o m o t i n g t h e w i d e r a n d m o r e e x t e n s i v e , a p p l i c a t i o n of t h e t e c h n i q u e s o f Work S t u d y t o a l l a s p e c t s of r a i l w a y w o r k . To h e e f f e c t i v e t h i s r e q u i r e s s t a f f t r a i n e d i n Work S t u d y m e t h o d s and h a v i n g d e t a i l e d k n o w l e d g e of r a i l w a y w o r k i n g . Accordingly, t o w a r d s t h e e n d of 1 9 5 6 , a Work S t u d y T r a i n i n g C e n t r e f o r B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s , L o n d o n T r a n s p o r t , B r i t i s h Road S e r v i c e s , Docks and Waterways w i l l h e s e t up a t W a t f o r d and i t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t w i t h i n t h r e e y e a r s t h e numbers of s t a f f s o t r a i n e d w i l l b e s u f f i c i e n t f o r a l a r g e e x p a n s i o n of projects. 6I+. Further, a specialist advisory service is being e s t a b l i s h e d w i t h i n t h e Commission u n d e r a D i r e c t o r of Work S t u d y t o d e v e l o p a common p o l i c y a n d c e n t r a l p o o l o f e x p e r i e n c e r e l a t i n g t o t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f Work S t u d y to transport problems. In a d d i t i o n to t h i s the C o m m i s s i o n ' s D i r e c t o r o f Work S t u d y i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r a d v i s i n g o n - t h e c o - o r d i n a t i o n of r e l a t i o n s w i t h t h e T r a d e U n i o n s on Work S t u d y a n d f o r t h e g e n e r a l s u p e r ­ v i s i o n of t h e T r a i n i n g C e n t r e . I n t h i s t a s k he w i l l be a s s i s t e d b y an A d v i s o r y Committee which w i l l i n c l u d e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s of t h e T r a d e U n i o n s a n d of o u t s i d e industry. 6 5 . A s u c c e s s f u l Work S t u d y s c h e m e i n t h e R e a d i n g S i g n a l Works h a s l e d t o a s u b s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e i n t o t a l o u t p u t w i t h a r e d u c e d l a b o u r f o r c e , a l o w e r wages b i l l and i n c r e a s e d i n d i v i d u a l e a r n i n g s . Investigations in o t h e r S i g n a l Works a r e b e i n g u n d e r t a k e n . Altogether, s p r e a d o v e r s e v e r a l d e p a r t m e n t s , 30 Work S t u d y s c h e m e s h a v e b e e n i m p l e m e n t e d t h r o u g h o u t B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s and a t t h e p r e s e n t t i m e a b o u t L\.0 s c h e m e s a r e u n d e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n . T h e s e i n c l u d e a v e r y l a r g e scheme a t Swindon W o r k s h o p s , O f f i c e s and S t o r e s . Consultants are also at the moment i n v e s t i g a t i n g tv/o M o t i v e P o w e r D e p o t s w i t h t h e o b j e c t of r e c o m m e n d i n g t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f i n c e n t i v e bonus schemes f o r maintenance work. F u r t h e r d e t a i l s of Work S t u d y s c h e m e s a r e g i v e n i n A p p e n d i x C. 6 6 . O v e r t h e p a s t e i g h t y e a r s I n c e n t i v e Bonus Schemes have been introduced at c e r t a i n C i v i l Engineering Depart­ ment Workshops and P r o d u c t i o n D e p o t s w i t h c o n s i d e r a b l e success. I n c r e a s e s i n o u t p u t of o v e r 100 p e r c e n t , h a v e b e e n o b t a i n e d i n some c a s e s . A p i l o t s c h e m e of i n c e n t i v e b o n u s p a y m e n t s f o r t r a c k m a i n t e n a n c e was i n t r o d u c e d i n t h e Woking a r e a f o l l o w i n g a work s t u d y i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h e v a r i o u s a s p e c t s of t h e l e n g t h m a n ' s job. W i t h t h e c o - o p e r a t i o n of t h e s t a f f t h e s c h e m e h a s been extended to the B a s i n g s t o k e and o t h e r a r e a s i n the Southern Region, A l l R e g i o n s a r e now g i v i n g c o n s i d e r ­ a t i o n t o t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n of s i m i l a r p i l o t s c h e m e s . T h e i r i n t r o d u c t i o n h a s b e e n a p p r o v e d on t h e W e s t e r n , S c o t t i s h , a n d N o r t h E a s t e r n R e g i o n s , and i t i s h o p e d t o i n t r o d u c e a s c h e m e on t h e L o n d o n M i d l a n d R e g i o n b e f o r e t h e e n d of t h e y e a r . T h e r e s u l t s of t h e e x t e n d e d s c h e m e h a v e b e e n i m p r e s s i v e a n d t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of t h i s s c h e m e on p e r m a n e n t w a y m a i n t e n a n c e a l o n e t o t h e w h o l e of B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s , w h i c h w i l l t a k e s e v e r a l y e a r s t o c o m p l e t e , may w e l l a c h i e v e a l a r g e r p o t e n t i a l s a v i n g t h a n w a s o r i g i n a l l y f o r e c a s t b y t h e C o n s u l t a n t s who c a r r i e d out the p r e l i m i n a r y i n v e s t i g a t i o n s f o r t h e p i l o t scheme. The b r o a d aim o f work s t u d y i s t o o b t a i n t h e maximum p r o d u c t i v i t y f r o m m e n , m a c h i n e s and m a t e r i a l . I t p r o v i d e s a m e a n s of d e t e r m i n i n g t h e b e s t w a y of d o i n g a j o b and a f f o r d s a b a s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e schemes. It also provides a factual basis for i n t r o d u c i n g c h a n g e s i n t r a d i t i o n a l w o r k i n g m e t h o d s and i n t h e e l i m i n a t i o n of o b s o l e t e p r a c t i c e s . Moreover, Work S t u d y e n a b l e s s o u n d l a b o u r c o n t r o l s c h e m e s t o b e d e v i s e d , from w h i c h r a t i o n a l f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e b o n u s p a y m e n t s c a n b e made on a b a s i s w h i c h g i v e s t h e S t a f f concerned a f a i r share.of the r e s u l t i n g economies. The f i n a n c i a l b e n e f i t t o t h e Commission w i l l b e l i m i t e d accordingly. T h e i n t r o d u c t i o n of new e q u i p m e n t w i l l i n c r e a s e productivity. Mechanised equipment i n o f f i c e s is widely u s e d f o r p a y r o l l , g o o d s and s t o r e s a c c o u n t i n g . British Railways a r e as f a r i f n o t f u r t h e r ahead than e t h e r i n d u s t r i e s i n t h e c o u n t r y i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of electronic devices in this f i e l d . Electronic equip­ ment has been i n s t a l l e d i n o f f i c e s a t Crewe, D e r b y , P e t e r b o r o u g h and D o n c a s t e r and i s p l a n n e d f o r P a d d i n g t o n and Swindon i n the n e a r ' f u t u r e and l a t e r f o r B a r r y and Bristol. A mechanised b u r e a u i s b e i n g formed in Glasgow and a d d i t i o n a l m e c h a n i s a t i o n a t N e w c a s t l e , D a r l i n g t o n and Y o r k i s u n d e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n . A s p e c i a l advisory panel has been established b y t h e B r i t i s h T r a n s p o r t Commission t o e n c o u r a g e and develop e l e c t r o n i c computer techniques throughout the C o m m i s s i o n s u n d e r t a k i n g s a n d t o a d v i s e on t h e i r installation. I t is f u r t h e r charged with i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of e l e c t r o n i c c o n t r o l t e c h n i q u e s t o t h e o p e r a t i n g d e p a r t m e n t s i n s u c h form as wagon c o n t r o l and a u t o m a t i c o p e r a t i o n i n m a r s h a l l i n g y a r d s . T h e c a l c u l a t i o n of t h e i m p r o v e m e n t i n t h e n e t r e v e n u e s of B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s a s t h e r e s u l t o f t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of work s t u d y s c h e m e s , m o d e r n o f f i c e m e t h o d s and o t h e r m e a s u r e s d e s i g n e d t o i m p r o v e p r o d u c t i v i t y , s h o u l d b e m a d e on c o n s e r v a t i v e l i n e s . The p r i m a r y o b j e c t i s to improve e f f i c i e n c y . For example, there i s a t p r e s e n t a s e r i o u s s h o r t a g e of s t a f f t o m a i n t a i n t h e p e r m a n e n t way: t h e b i g g a i n t o b e d e r i v e d from t h e s c h e m e s m e n t i o n e d i n p a r a g r a p h 66 a b o v e i s n o t t h a t t h e y w i l l s a v e men, b u t t h a t t h e p e r m a n e n t way w i l l b e b e t t e r maintained. Then a g a i n , i n t h e M o d e r n i s a t i o n P l a n c r e d i t has a l r e a d y been taken f o r economies r e s u l t i n g from i m p r o v e d e q u i p m e n t and f r o m i m p r o v e d m e t h o d s of o p e r a t i o n and t h i s c r e d i t c a n n o t b e t a k e n t w i c e . Many o f t h e a c t i v i t i e s on B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s a r e n o t s u s c e p t i b l e of i m p r o v e d of i m p r o v e d e f f i c i e n c y s a v e b y a r a d i c a l change i n o r g a n i s a t i o n ; f o r example, a p u b l i c road l e v e l c r o s s i n g c a n n o t b e l o o k e d a f t e r by l e s s t h a n one a t t e n d a n t u n t i l the law concerning such c r o s s i n g s i s c h a n g e d ( p a r a g r a p h 78) . I t is also necessary to bear w e l l i n m i n d t h e p o i n t m a d e i n p a r a g r a p h 67 a b o v e . F o r t h e s e a n d o t h e r r e a s o n s of s i m i l a r n a t u r e , t h e C o m m i s s i o n , w h i l e e x p e c t i n g v e r y i m p o r t a n t r e s u l t s from t h e m e a s u r e s now i n h a n d t o i m p r o v e p r o d u c t i v i t y , c a n n o t r e a s o n a b l y a s s e s s the a d d i t i o n a l improvement in n e t revenue, beyond t h a t taken t o account in the Modernisation P l a n , a t m o r e t h a n £5m. a y e a r b y 1 9 6 1 . The i n t r o d u c t i o n of m e a s u r e s t o i m p r o v e p r o d u c t i v i t y m u s t i n e v i t a b l y l e a d t o some d i s p l a c e m e n t o f m a n p o w e r , b u t i t i s t h e C o m m i s s i o n ^ i n t e n t i o n to deal with redundancy problems a r i s i n g t h e r e ­ f r o m , b y r e - a b s o r p t i o n and b y n o n - r e p l a c e m e n t of w a s t a g e i n so f a r as t h i s i s p o s s i b l e . D . STATUTORY OBLIGATIONS AND FREEDOM TO COMPETE 7 1 . F i r s t among a l l t h e s t a t u t o r y r e s t r i c t i o n s a n d o b l i g a t i o n s w h i c h h a v e f e t t e r e d t h e o p e r a t i o n s of r a i l ­ w a y s on a s t r i c t l y " e c o n o m i c " b a s i s m u s t r a n k t h e r e s t r i c t i o n s o n f r e e d o m i n t h e m a t t e r of f i x i n g f a r e s and c h a r g e s and t h e o b l i g a t i o n t o a f f o r d e q u a l i t y of treatment to a l l p e r s o n s . 7 2 . T h e 1953 A c t h a s r e m o v e d t h e p r e v i o u s o b l i g a ­ t i o n t o a f f o r d e q u a l i t y of t r e a t m e n t t o a l l p e r s o n s and empowered t h e C o m m i s s i o n t o s u b m i t t o t h e T r i b u n a l a new M e r c h a n d i s e C h a r g e s Scheme g i v i n g them a much l a r g e r m e a s u r e of c o m m e r c i a l f r e e d o m t h a n h e r e t o f o r e . The d r a f t S c h e m e a s s u b m i t t e d l a i d down maximum c a r r i a g e c h a r g e s more r e l a t e d t o c o s t s , i n p l a c e of S t a n d a r d C h a r g e s r e l a t e d t o a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of m e r c h a n d i s e p r i m a r i l y b a s e d on v a l u e , a n d t h e C o m m i s s i o n w e r e t o have d i s c r e t i o n as to what t h e y charged w i t h i n t h e s e maxima. They would no l o n g e r b e r e q u i r e d to o b t a i n the T r i b u n a l ' s approval to a l t e r a t i o n s in a c t u a l charges b e l o w t h e maxima o r t o p u b l i s h a n y a c t u a l c h a r g e s o t h e r than the maxima. 7 3 . The C h a r g e s S c h e m e h a s a f t e r l e n g t h y p u b l i c e n q u i r y b e e n amended b y t h e T r i b u n a l ' s I n t e r i m D e c i s i o n as f o l l o w s : w h i l e a g r e e i n g t h e p r i n c i p l e i n g e n e r a l of maximum c h a r g e s f o r c o n v e y a n c e of t r a f f i c , t h e T r i b u n a l d e c i d e d t h a t t h e r e s h o u l d b e two e x c e p t i o n s ­ ( a ) a n y c o n s i g n m e n t (b) goods carried in weighing owners' 100 tons or more; wagons. In both these instances the Tribunal decided that the c h a r g e s made m u s t b e " r e a s o n a b l e c h a r g e s " , w h i c h would on a p p l i c a t i o n b e s e t t l e d b y t h e m . The T r i b u n a l n o t only rejected the Commission's proposal for a s i n g l e s e r i e s o f s c a l e s , b u t l o w e r e d t h e p r o p o s e d maximum c h a r g e s and p r o v i d e d a s e p a r a t e s e r i e s f o r a l i s t of named c o m m o d i t i e s n o r m a l l y c a r r i e d i n b u l k ; and t h e y a l s o i n t r o d u c e d i n each s e r i e s a l t e r n a t i v e and l o w e r maximum c h a r g e s f o r g o o d s c o n s i g n e d t o a n d / o r f r o m a private siding. 71+. I t f o l l o w s , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t t h e e x t e n t of t h e commercial freedom f o r which t h e Commission had a s k e d '. h a s "been a p p r e c i a b l y r e s t r i c t e d b y t h e T r i b u n a l ' s I n t e r i m Decision, Nevertheless B r i t i s h Railways w i l l take a d v a n t a g e of t h e freedom p e r m i t t e d u n d e r t h e scheme t o reorganise t h e i r freight charging arrangements towards t h e f o l l o w i n g ends ( a ) t h e e n c o u r a g e m e n t o f t r a f f i c c o n s i g n e d i n l a r g e r q u a n t i t i e s and good wagon l o a d s ; ( b ) t h e e n c o u r a g e m e n t o f r e g u l a r t r a f f i c f o r w h i c h e c o n o m i c a l s e r v i c e s can be a r r a n g e d ; ( c ) t h e a t t r a c t i o n o f g o o d passing by road, for distances; l o a d i n g t r a f f i c , now l o n g and medium ( d ) t h e a v o i d a n c e o f l o s s o n some o f distance rail traffic. T h e c o n s e q u e n t c h a n g e s i n t h e p a t t e r n of railway operations are reflected in the e s t i m a t e s , q u o t e d a b o v e , of t h e e v e n t u a l t h e M o d e r n i s a t i o n P l a n and t h e r i g h t t o w i d e r m e a s u r e o f c o m m e r c i a l f r e e d o m i s , i n d i s p e n s a b l e element i n the r e a l i s a t i o n estimates. the shorter t r a f f i c s and financial o u t - t u r n of e x e r c i s e a much t h e r e f o r e , an of t h e s e 75. But the c h a n g e s i n c h a r g i n g a r r a n g e m e n t s w i l l h a v e t o s t a r t a t a t i m e when r o a d c o m p e t i t i o n i s k e e n e r and g r e a t e r t h a n e v e r b e f o r e and when t h e s e r v i c e a f f o r d e d b y t h e r a i l w a y s i s b e l o w t h e e f f i c i e n c y and r e l i a b i l i t y needed. A l s o , i t w i l l t a k e some t i m e t o e f f e c t t h e . c o m p l e t e r e - o r i e n t a t i o n of s e l l i n g p o l i c y and s e l l i n g methods which i s r e q u i r e d . Though t h e b e n e f i t s w i l l emerge s l o w l y , i n the end they w i l l be s u b s t a n t i a l . How s u b s t a n t i a l , w i l l d e p e n d i n l a r g e d e g r e e on t h e p r i c e p o l i c y t o b e pursued by t h e Commission i n t h e n e a r f u t u r e . T h i s i s d i s c u s s e d i n C h a p t e r V. 76, I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e b e n e f i t s t o be d e r i v e d from t h e g r e a t e r f r e e d o m of c h a r g i n g , w h i c h b e i t r e m e m b e r o d h a s y e t t o come i n t o o p e r a t i o n , t h e r e i s a l s o t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of o b t a i n i n g , w i t h t h e s u p p o r t of t h e G o v e r n m e n t , r e l i e f from o t h e r o u t d a t e d s t a t u t o r y obligations. ' 77. As an e x a m p l e t h e c a s e of r o a d b r i d g e s o v e r t h e r a i l w a y s may b e c i t e d . Where l i n e s were c o n s t r u c t e d so a s t o c r o s s e x i s t i n g p u b l i c r o a d s , a n d t h e r o a d was c a r r i e d o v e r t h e l i n e b y means of a b r i d g e , t h e r a i l w a y companies came u n d e r a s t a t u t o r y o b l i g a t i o n t o m a i n t a i n n o t o n l y t h e s t r u c t u r e of t h e b r i d g e , b u t a l s o t h e s u r f a c e of t h e r o a d o v e r t h e b r i d g e and t h e r a i s e d a p p r o a c h e s . The p o s i t i o n in this respect has r a d i c a l l y altered with the g r o w t h o f m o t o r t r a f f i c on t h e r o a d s a n d t h e c o s t o f m a i n t a i n i n g t h e s e s u r f a c e s h a s become a heavy l i a b i l i t y . While t h e s e r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s a r e b e i n g or have been t r a n s f e r r e d t o o t h e r A u t h o r i t i e s , t h e Commission remain responsible for financial contributions. mm 7 8 . A n o t h e r e x a m p l e i s t h e c o s t of l e v e l c r o s s i n g s . W h e r e l i n e s w e r e c a r r i e d a c r o s s p u b l i c r o a d s on t h e l e v e l , t h e r a i l w a y c o m p a n i e s came u n d e r a s t a t u t o r y o b l i g a t i o n t o p r o v i d e g a t e s w h i c h , when o p e n e d t o r o a d t r a f f i c , c o m p l e t e l y f e n c e d i n t h e r a i l w a y , and a l s o t o p r o v i d e an a t t e n d a n t t o s u p e r i n t e n d t h e c r o s s i n g and t o open and s h u t t h e g a t e s . I n many i n s t a n c e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y at l e v e l crossings adjoining s t a t i o n s , the gates are c o n t r o l l e d b y a s i g n a l m a n from a box a t the c r o s s i n g , b u t t h e r e a r e a l s o v e r y m a n y p u b l i c c r o s s i n g s u p end down the country at which i t is n e c e s s a r y to provide s p e c i a l staff. The c o s t of manning t h e s e c r o s s i n g s a t p r e s e n t d a y wage r a t e s i s c o n s i d e r a b l e ; i n a n u m b e r of c a s e s i t h a s i n c r e a s e d f r o m a b o u t £ 5 0 t o a r o u n d £1+00 a y e a r , and t h e t o t a l f i g u r e h a s r i s e n from £ 2 2 0 , 0 0 0 i n 1938 t o a b o u t £1m. now. Often, moreover, the staff at these c r o s s i n g s , t h o u g h i n c o n t i n u o u s a t t e n d a n c e , a r e by no means b u s i l y employed. 7 9 . The Commission a l r e a d y h a v e p o w e r s t o s u b s t i t u t e l i f t i n g b a r r i e r s for gates at public level crossings, s u b j e c t to the M i n i s t e r ' s consent in each i n d i v i d u a l c a s e . T h e s e b a r r i e r s , however-, w o u l d l e a d t o no m a j o r e c o n o m i e s s o l o n g as t h e Commission a r e r e q u i r e d by law t o m a i n t a i n s t a f f at a l l p u b l i c road c r o s s i n g s . Economies could b e e f f e c t e d i f t h e s t a f f at many c r o s s i n g s c o u l d b e removed by o p e r a t i n g l i f t i n g b a r r i e r s e i t h e r a u t o m a t i c a l l y by t r a c k c i r c u i t s or r e m o t e l y from t h e n e a r e s t s i g n a l b o x . An a d a p t a t i o n o f t h e s e m e t h o d s m i g h t a l s o e n a b l e some s i g n a l boxes at l e v e l c r o s s i n g s to be closed in s l a c k t r a f f i c hours with resultant economies. There i s , h o w e v e r , n o e x p e r i e n c e of t h e s e m e t h o d s i n t h i s c o u n t r y a l t h o u g h t h e y a r e widely used a b r o a d . I t i s n o t even p o s s i b l e t o t r y them o u t w h i l e t h e l a w r e m a i n s a s i t i s . 8 0 . The C o m m i s s i o n , t h e r e f o r e , c o n s i d e r t h a t t h e t i m e h a s now a r r i v e d t o r e v i e w t h e s t a t u t o r y p r o v i s i o n s which r e q u i r e a t t e n d a n t s at a l l p u b l i c l e v e l c r o s s i n g s . Any c h a n g e s m u s t h a v e d u e r e g a r d f o r s a f e t y and t h e Commission a r e a l r e a d y i n t o u c h w i t h the Chief I n s p e c t ­ i n g O f f i c e r of R a i l w a y s on t h e r e l e v a n t p r o b l e m s . W h i l e t h e C o m m i s s i o n a r e on t h e l o o k o u t f o r ways of o b t a i n i n g r e l i e f from o b l i g a t i o n s w h i c h h a v e b e c o m e o u t of d a t e w i t h t h e p a s s a g e o f t i m e , a n d w o u l d l i k e t o s e e t h i s p r o c e s s s p e e d e d u p , t h e r i g h t s of o t h e r a u t h o r i t i e s and i n d i v i d u a l s a r e , a s a g e n e r a l r u l e , s o closely linked with railway obligations that there is r a r e l y a s h o r t c u t t o f r e e d o m , and p r o g r e s s must i n e v i t a ­ b l y b e r a t h e r slow. I t i s d i f f i c u l t to assess the f i n a n c i a l b e n e f i t s t o b e d e r i v e d from t h e p o l i c y of f r e e d o m i n c h a r g i n g and from r e l i e f from s t a t u t o r y o b l i g a t i o n s . Making^the m o s t r e a s o n a b l e a s s u m p t i o n s p o s s i b l e and t a k i n g i n t o a c c o u n t i n p a r t i c u l a r t h e b e n e f i t s t o b e d e r i v e d from a l e s s r e s t r i c t e d , more s e l e c t i v e and more a g g r e s s i v e s e l l i n g p o l i c y and from s u c h a l t e r a t i o n s i n f a r e s and 03 71+. I t f o l l o w s , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t t h e e x t e n t of t h e commercial freedom f o r which t h e Commission had a s k e d '. h a s b e e n a p p r e c i a b l y r e s t r i c t e d b y t h e T r i b u n a l ' s I n t e r i m Decision, Nevertheless B r i t i s h Railways w i l l take a d v a n t a g e of t h e freedom p e r m i t t e d u n d e r t h e scheme t o reorganise t h e i r freight charging arrangements towards t h e f o l l o w i n g ends ( a ) t h e e n c o u r a g e m e n t o f t r a f f i c c o n s i g n e d i n l a r g e r q u a n t i t i e s and good wagon l o a d s ; ( b ) t h e e n c o u r a g e m e n t o f r e g u l a r t r a f f i c f o r w h i c h e c o n o m i c a l s e r v i c e s can be a r r a n g e d ; ( c ) t h e a t t r a c t i o n o f g o o d l o a d i n g t r a f f i c , now p a s s i n g b y r o a d , f o r l o n g and medium distances; ( d ) t h e a v o i d a n c e o f l o s s o n some o f distance rail traffic. T h e c o n s e q u e n t c h a n g e s i n t h e p a t t e r n of railway operations are reflected in the e s t i m a t e s , q u o t e d a b o v e , of t h e e v e n t u a l t h e M o d e r n i s a t i o n P l a n and t h e r i g h t t o w i d e r m e a s u r e of c o m m e r c i a l freedom i s , i n d i s p e n s a b l e element i n the r e a l i s a t i o n estimates. the shorter t r a f f i c s and financial o u t - t u r n of e x e r c i s e a much t h e r e f o r e , an of t h e s e 7 5 . But the c h a n g e s i n c h a r g i n g a r r a n g e m e n t s w i l l h a v e t o s t a r t a t a t i m e when r o a d c o m p e t i t i o n i s k e e n e r and g r e a t e r t h a n e v e r b e f o r e and when t h e s e r v i c e a f f o r d e d b y t h e r a i l w a y s i s b e l o w t h e e f f i c i e n c y and r e l i a b i l i t y needed. A l s o , i t w i l l t a k e some t i m e t o e f f e c t t h e . c o m p l e t e r e - o r i e n t a t i o n of s e l l i n g p o l i c y and s e l l i n g methods which i s r e q u i r e d . Though t h e b e n e f i t s w i l l emerge s l o w l y , i n the end they w i l l be s u b s t a n t i a l . How s u b s t a n t i a l , w i l l d e p e n d i n l a r g e d e g r e e on t h e p r i c e p o l i c y t o b e pursued by t h e Commission i n t h e n e a r f u t u r e . T h i s i s d i s c u s s e d i n C h a p t e r V. 7 6 . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e b e n e f i t s t o be d e r i v e d from t h e g r e a t e r f r e e d o m of c h a r g i n g , w h i c h b e i t r e m e m b e r e d h a s y e t t o come i n t o o p e r a t i o n , t h e r e i s a l s o t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of o b t a i n i n g , w i t h t h e s u p p o r t of t h e G o v e r n m e n t , r e l i e f from o t h e r o u t d a t e d s t a t u t o r y obligations. ' 7 7 . As an e x a m p l e t h e c a s e of r o a d b r i d g e s o v e r t h e r a i l w a y s may b e c i t e d . Where l i n e s were c o n s t r u c t e d so a s t o c r o s s e x i s t i n g p u b l i c r o a d s , a n d t h e r o a d was c a r r i e d o v e r t h e l i n e b y means of a b r i d g e , t h e r a i l w a y companies came u n d e r a s t a t u t o r y o b l i g a t i o n t o m a i n t a i n n o t o n l y t h e s t r u c t u r e of t h e b r i d g e , b u t a l s o t h e s u r f a c e of t h e r o a d o v e r t h e b r i d g e and t h e r a i s e d a p p r o a c h e s . The p o s i t i o n in this respect has r a d i c a l l y altered with the g r o w t h o f m o t o r t r a f f i c on t h e r o a d s a n d t h e c o s t o f m a i n t a i n i n g t h e s e s u r f a c e s h a s become a heavy l i a b i l i t y . While t h e s e r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s a r e b e i n g or have been t r a n s f e r r e d t o o t h e r A u t h o r i t i e s , t h e Commission remain responsible for financial contributions. 7 8 . A n o t h e r e x a m p l e i s t h e c o s t of l e v e l c r o s s i n g s . W h e r e l i n e s w e r e c a r r i e d a c r o s s p u b l i c r o a d s on t h e l e v e l , t h e r a i l w a y c o m p a n i e s came u n d e r a s t a t u t o r y o b l i g a t i o n t o p r o v i d e g a t e s w h i c h , when o p e n e d t o r o a d t r a f f i c , c o m p l e t e l y f e n c e d i n t h e r a i l w a y , and a l s o t o p r o v i d e an a t t e n d a n t t o s u p e r i n t e n d t h e c r o s s i n g and t o o p e n and s h u t t h e g a t e s . I n many i n s t a n c e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y at level crossings adjoining s t a t i o n s , the gates are c o n t r o l l e d by a s i g n a l m a n from a box at the c r o s s i n g , b u t t h e r e a r e a l s o v e r y m a n y p u b l i c c r o s s i n g s u p and down t h e c o u n t r y at which i t i s n e c e s s a r y to p r o v i d e s p e c i a l staff. The c o s t of manning t h e s e c r o s s i n g s a t p r e s e n t d a y wage r a t e s i s c o n s i d e r a b l e ; i n a number of c a s e s i t h a s i n c r e a s e d f r o m a b o u t £ 5 0 t o a r o u n d £LuOO a y e a r ? a n d t h e t o t a l f i g u r e h a s r i s e n f r o m £ 2 2 0 , 0 0 0 i n 1938 t o a b o u t £1m, n o w . Often, moreover, the staff at these c r o s s i n g s , though in continuous a t t e n d a n c e , a r e by no means b u s i l y employed. 7 9 . The Commission a l r e a d y h a v e p o w e r s t o s u b s t i t u t e l i f t i n g b a r r i e r s for gates at public level crossings, subject to the M i n i s t e r s consent in each i n d i v i d u a l c a s e . T h e s e b a r r i e r s , however-, would l e a d t o no m a j o r economies so l o n g a s t h e Commission a r e r e q u i r e d by law to m a i n t a i n s t a f f at a l l p u b l i c r o a d c r o s s i n g s . Economies could b e e f f e c t e d i f t h e s t a f f at many c r o s s i n g s c o u l d b e removed by operating l i f t i n g b a r r i e r s e i t h e r automatically by t r a c k c i r c u i t s or r e m o t e l y from t h e n e a r e s t s i g n a l b o x . An a d a p t a t i o n of t h e s e m e t h o d s m i g h t a l s o e n a b l e some s i g n a l boxes at l e v e l crossings to be closed in s l a c k t r a f f i c hours with r e s u l t a n t economies. There i s , h o w e v e r , n o e x p e r i e n c e of t h e s e m e t h o d s i n t h i s c o u n t r y a l t h o u g h they are widely used abroad. I t i s n o t even p o s s i b l e t o t r y them o u t w h i l e t h e l a w r e m a i n s a s i t i s . 8 0 . The C o m m i s s i o n , t h e r e f o r e , c o n s i d e r t h a t t h e t i m e h a s now a r r i v e d t o r e v i e w t h e s t a t u t o r y p r o v i s i o n s which r e q u i r e a t t e n d a n t s at a l l p u b l i c l e v e l c r o s s i n g s . Any c h a n g e s m u s t h a v e d u e r e g a r d f o r s a f e t y a n d t h e Commission a r e a l r e a d y i n t o u c h w i t h the Chief I n s p e c t ­ i n g O f f i c e r of R a i l w a y s on t h e r e l e v a n t p r o b l e m s . W h i l e t h e C o m m i s s i o n a r e on t h e l o o k o u t f o r w a y s of o b t a i n i n g r e l i e f f r o m o b l i g a t i o n s w h i c h h a v e b e c o m e o u t of d a t e w i t h t h e p a s s a g e o f t i m e , a n d w o u l d l i k e t o s e e t h i s p r o c e s s s p e e d e d u p , t h e r i g h t s of o t h e r a u t h o r i t i e s and i n d i v i d u a l s a r e , a s a g e n e r a l r u l e , s o closely linked with railway obligations that there is r a r e l y a s h o r t c u t t o f r e e d o m , and p r o g r e s s must i n e v i t a ­ b l y b e r a t h e r slow. I t is d i f f i c u l t to assess the f i n a n c i a l benefits t o b e d e r i v e d f r o m t h e p o l i c y of f r e e d o m i n c h a r g i n g a n d from r e l i e f from s t a t u t o r y o b l i g a t i o n s . Making^the most r e a s o n a b l e a s s u m p t i o n s p o s s i b l e and t a k i n g i n t o account i n p a r t i c u l a r t h e b e n e f i t s t o be d e r i v e d from a l e s s r e s t r i c t e d , more s e l e c t i v e and more a g g r e s s i v e s e l l i n g p o l i c y and f r o m s u c h a l t e r a t i o n s i n f a r e s a n d c h a r g e s ( n e t ) a s may "be f e a s i b l e w i t h i n t h e a m b i t o f Charging P o l i c y as described in the next c h a p t e r , a t o t a l i m p r o v e m e n t o f £20m. a y e a r b y 1961 o r 1962 c a n reasonably be expected. I t would r e p r e s e n t , i n d e e d , a r a t e of i m p r o v e m e n t of l e s s t h a n 1 p e r c e n t , a y e a r , o v e r t h e n e x t s i x y e a r s , on t h e p r e s e n t t a k i n g s o f B r i t i s h Railways. An i n c r e a s e i n t h i s f i g u r e o f a t l e a s t a f u r t h e r £5m. b y t h e e n d o f t h e f o l l o w i n g e i g h t y e a r s would seem a s a f e a s s u m p t i o n . The C o m m i s s i o n h a v e a l r e a d y a n n o u n c e d t h a t t h e y w i l l n o t make g e n e r a l i n c r e a s e s i n t h e i r f a r e s a n d c h a r g e s d u r i n g 1 9 5 6 , p r o v i d e d t h a t a s a r e s u l t of t h e r e - a s s e s s m e n t o f t h e i r f i n a n c i a l p o s i t i o n now b e i n g m a d e , a c o u r s e o f action consistent with their statutory obligations.and the p r o p e r d e v e l o p m e n t of t h e i r u n d e r t a k i n g can b e worked o u t and a d o p t e d . Pares and charges were in any case "frozen" u n t i l t h e e n d o f S e p t e m b e r b y t h e d e c i s i o n s of t h e Government and t h e Commission t a k e n i n March of t h i s y e a r . As t o t h e r e m a i n i n g m o n t h s o f t h e y e a r , t h e C o m m i s s i o n f e l t t h a t on commercial g r o u n d s a l o n e t h e t i m e was u n ­ propitious for general increases in passenger fares or other charges. I n r e s p e c t of t h e p o l i c y t o be p u r s u e d a f t e r t h i s p e r i o d of " f r e e z e " , however? t h e Commission are presented with several a l t e r n a t i v e s . F i r s t s having regard to t h e i r duties under the 19^4-7 A c t t h e C o m m i s s i o n m i g h t a t t e m p t t o m e e t t h e p r e s e n t unbalance, and recoup t h e i r p a s t d e f i c i t s t by i n c r e a s i n g t h e i r c h a r g e s i n t h e n e a r f u t u r e t o t h e f u l l amount necessary. T h e o r e t i c a l l y , an i n c r e a s e producing an a v e r a g e o f 15 p e r c e n t o n h e a v y r a i l w a y t r a f f i c s l i k e c o a l a n d m i n e r a l s j a n d 2-g- p e r c e n t o n o t h e r r a i l w a y g o o d s ? a n i n c r e a s e o f 10 p e r w o u l d mean a l m o s t £30m. a y e a r ; c e n t on r a i l w a y p a r c e l s a n d m a i l s b y p a s s e n g e r t r a i n and a general i n c r e a s e in w o u l d m e a n a l m o s t £5m. a y e a r ; r a i l w a y f a r e s o f 10 p e r c e n t w o u l d m e a n £1 2m. a y e a r . T h e t o t a l o f £U7m. f r o m r a i l w a y s w o u l d s u f f i c e , i n c o n ­ j u n c t i o n with minor i n c r e a s e s elsewhere, not only t o stop t h e e x i s t i n g gap i n t h e Commission's b u d g e t b u t a l s o t o leave a small margin over. 5 But B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s a r e faced v/ith s h a r p c o m p e t i t i o n over a c o n s i d e r a b l e p a r t of t h e i r p a s s e n g e r and f r e i g h t t r a f f i c s . Moreover, p u b l i c opinion would be p a r t i c u l a r l y r e s e n t f u l of any heavy i n c r e a s e s at t h i s time. I n t h e l o n g r u n t h e immediate g a i n of r e v e n u e would p r o b a b l y be p u r c h a s e d a t t h e expense of a s u b s t a n t i a l c o n t r a c t i o n i n t h e t r a f f i c s o f f e r e d t o t h e Commission. In o t h e r words, any a t t e m p t t o impose l a r g e i n c r e a s e s i n t h e i r f a r e s or charges i n t h e n e a r f u t u r e would, so f a r a s c a n b e e s t i m a t e d a t p r e s e n t , damage t h e C o m m i s s i o n ^ b u s i n e s s t e m p o r a r i l y f o r c e r t a i n , and p o s s i b l y permanently. As t h e s e c o n d a l t e r n a t i v e o f p o l i c y ? t h e C o m m i s s i o n m i g h t a t t e m p t t o make a p a r t i a l r e d u c t i o n i n t h e i r current d e f i c i t by imposing a l l the increases in f a r e s and c h a r g e s which any p a r t i c u l a r t r a f f i c s would bear. However, t h e g e n e r a l o b j e c t i o n s given i n t h e previous paragraph apply in l e s s e r degree to a p a r t i a l o p e r a t i o n of t h i s kind. A l s o , t h e Commission hope t h a t t h e new scheme o f c h a r g i n g c o n t r o l , t o w h i c h r e f e r e n c e i s made i n C h a p t e r I V , w i l l b e i n o p e r a t i o n b y t h e m i d d l e of 1957. The g r e a t e r c h a r g i n g f r e e d o m t h e r e b y a f f o r d e d ? i f i n t r o d u c e d a g a i n s t a background of widespread d i s s a t i s ­ f a c t i o n a t t h e l e v e l of f a r e s and c h a r g e s ? would be g i v e n a b a d s t a r t , a n d much o f i t s b e n e f i t s m i g h t t h u s b e forfeited. 8 7 . Looking beyond.the immediate s i t u a t i o n , i t a b a s i c a s s u m p t i o n of t h i s p a p e r t h a t t h e Commission should have r e a s o n a b l e charging freedom. If their c o s t s s h o u l d r i s e t h e y must b e f r e e t o a d j u s t t h e i r charges. There a r e , i n any c a s e , c e r t a i n i n s t a n c e s where l o c a l or s e l e c t i v e i n c r e a s e s a r e j u s t i f i e d and s h o u l d b e made. is 8 8 . To sum u p , i t i s t o o s o o n y e t t o s a y i n d e t a i l what s h o u l d b e done a f t e r t h e end of t h e y e a r , a n d i n g e n e r a l , a p a r t from a d j u s t m e n t s of t h e k i n d mentioned i n p a r a g r a p h 87 a b o v e , t h e w i s e r p o l i c y t o p u r s u e i n t h e n e a r f u t u r e i s one of p r i c e r e s t r a i n t - n o t n e c e s s a r i l y " p r i c e f r e e z i n g " - i n t h e knowledge t h a t t h e r e s u l t s of t h i s p o l i c y and of t h e c o n s e q u e n t g o o d w i l l w i l l substantially i m p r o v e t h e p o s i t i o n o f t h e r a i l w a y s w i t h i n t h e n e x t few y e a r s and p r o t e c t p e r m a n e n t l y t h e whole scope of t h e i r business. Any n e t r e v e n u e s o s a c r i f i c e d , temporarily, may b e r e g a r d e d a s a n i n v e s t m e n t w h i c h w i l l n o t o n l y p r e v e n t an u n d e r m i n i n g of r a i l w a y t r a f f i c s i n a c r i t i c a l p e r i o d - and a c o n s e q u e n t d e c r e a s e in t h e b e n e f i t s of t h e Modernisation Plan - but will also help to provide in the n o t - t o o - d i s t a n t f u t u r e t h e p o s i t i v e f i n a n c i a l improvement o f many m i l l i o n s of p o u n d s a y e a r a l r e a d y m e n t i o n e d i n the previous chapter. CHAPTER VI : CORRECTIVE ACTION IN PROGRESS OTHER A C T I V I T I E S - 8 9 . I t h a s a l r e a d y "been r e m a r k e d t h a t , o f t h e . o t h e r a c t i v i t i e s b e l o n g i n g t o t h e Commission, t h e l e a s t , s a t i s f a c t o r y from a f i n a n c i a l p o i n t of v i e w a r e London T r a n s p o r t and the I n l a n d Waterways. 9 0 . As r e g a r d s L o n d o n T r a n s p o r t , t h e i r o p e r a t i o n s h a v e i n e a c h y e a r s i n c e 1950 f a i l e d t o m a k e a p r o p e r c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e i n t e r e s t and o t h e r c e n t r a l c h a r g e s of t h e Commission. I n t h e r e s u l t , a b o u t £15m. o f t h e C o m m i s s i o n s a c c u m u l a t e d d e f i c i t o f £70m. a t t h e e n d o f 1955 i s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o L o n d o n T r a n s p o r t . Though i t i s g e n e r a l l y a c c e p t e d t h a t London s h o u l d pay i t s way, t h e d e l a y b e t w e e n i n c r e a s e s i n wage r a t e s and p r i c e l e v e l s and the subsequent i n c r e a s e s in f a r e s has produced t h i s l o n g s e r i e s of y e a r l y s h o r t f a l l s ' , and u n l i k e B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s , London T r a n s p o r t o f f e r s no r e a l p r o s p e c t of f i n a n c i a l improvement except by i n c r e a s i n g f a r e s . 91* London T r a n s p o r t i s a l r e a d y a modern and e f f i c i e n t t r a n s p o r t s y s t e m , and t h e volume of s e r v i c e i t o f f e r s cannot be reduced s i g n i f i c a n t l y . Nor, u n f o r t u n a t e l y , i s t h e r e much p r o s p e c t o f i n c r e a s e s i n traffic. With more p r i v a t e m o t o r i n g a t t r a c t i n g customers away from t h e p u b l i c s e r v i c e s and w i t h i n c r e a s i n g congestion in the s t r e e t s , which both i n c r e a s e s the cost and r e d u c e s t h e a t t r a c t i v e n e s s of t h e London T r a n s p o r t r o a d s e r v i c e s , t h e f u t u r e t r e n d of t r a f f i c i s more l i k e l y t o c o n t i n u e t h e d e c l i n e of r e c e n t y e a r s . 9 2 . The C o m m i s s i o n h a v e r e c e n t l y made c e r t a i n l o c a l a d j u s t m e n t s t o f a r e s i n London. While t h e y w i l l a l w a y s e n d e a v o u r t o k e e p f a r e s i n t h e London a r e a a s low a s p o s s i b l e , c u r r e n t c o s t s must i n f u t u r e b e met b y t h e c u r r e n t l e v e l of f a r e s . T h e r e a r e no f u t u r e expectations to justify a different policy. 9 3 . As t o I n l a n d W a t e r w a y s , t h e e f f o r t s of t h e Commission t o remedy t h e p o s i t i o n a r e well-known. The opposition to these e f f o r t s is equally well-known. The p o s i t i o n i s now b e i n g i n v e s t i g a t e d b y a n o t h e r C o m m i t t e e o f I n q u i r y , t h e Bowes C o m m i t t e e , a n d u n t i l t h i s C o m m i t t e e r e p o r t a n d t h e G o v e r n m e n t a n n o u n c e t h e i r p o l i c y on t h e f u t u r e of t h e w a t e r w a y s , i t i s n o t p o s s i b l e to s a y what f u t u r e e a s i n g of t h e f i n a n c i a l p o s i t i o n can b e c o u n t e d on. I n r e l a t i o n t o t h e s u m - t o t a l of t h e C o m m i s s i o n ^ p r o b l e m in i t s present magnitude, the r e l i e f w i l l in any case be m a r g i n a l s however important in i t s e l f . 94* E f f o r t s w i l l c o n t i n u e t o b e made t o i m p r o v e t h e f i n a n c i a l r e s u l t s of o t h e r a c t i v i t i e s o f t h e Commission i n c l u d i n g d o c k s , r o a d p a s s e n g e r and f r e i g h t s e r v i c e s and h o t e l s a n d c a t e r i n g , b y g r e a t e r e f f i c i e n c y a n d , when appropriate, increases in charges. CHAPTER V I I : THE FINANCIAL POSITION DURING THE PERIOD OP RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT T h e f o r e g o i n g s e c t i o n s h a v e s u m m a r i s e d some of t h e major f a c t o r s i n t h e f i n a n c i a l and commercial p o s i t i o n of t h e Commission. This is not the only aspect which m a t t e r s . Q u e s t i o n s of d e f e n c e and of g e n e r a l s t r a t e g y a r e i n v o l v e d j and q u e s t i o n s of s o c i a l p o l i c y and the public benefit. The e c o n o m i c s of a p u b l i c s e r v i c e a r e n o t r e f l e c t e d e x c l u s i v e l y i n i t s own p a r t i c u l a r account of p r o f i t and l o s s . N e v e r t h e l e s s -it i s r e l e v a n t t o e n q u i r e how t h e f i n a n c i a l p r o b l e m o f t h e C o m m i s s i o n w o u l d a p p e a r i f t h e r e s u l t s of t h e remedial measures o u t l i n e d above were t e s t e d by t h e o r d i n a r y c r i t e r i a of commercial finance. Provided t h a t t h e s e measures a r e given a proper c h a n c e t o f r u c t i f y , a n d on t h e a s s u m p t i o n s s e t o u t a t t h e b e g i n n i n g of t h i s p a p e r , t h e p r o s p e c t i s t h a t t h e annual n e t r e v e n u e a c c o u n t of t h e Commission w i l l b e i n b a l a n c e b y 1961 o r 1 9 6 2 . This is a f t e r charging a l l remuneration o n c a p i t a l b o r r o w i n g s i n f u l l , o l d and. n e w , s a v e o n l y i n t e r e s t on d e f i c i t s . By 1970 t h e r e s h o u l d b e n o t o n l y a b a l a n c e , b u t a s u r p l u s o f £50m. a y e a r o v e r a n d a b o v e t h e cost of s e r v i c i n g the c a p i t a l . T h e s e p r o s p e c t s f o r t h e f u t u r e m u s t b e compared, with the immediate outlook. I t i s c l e a r from what h a s b e e n s a i d i n t h i s p a p e r t h a t f o r t h e n e x t few y e a r s , t h e p e r i o d of r e c o n s t r u c t i o n and d e v e l o p m e n t , t h e r e v e n u e s of t h e Commission a r e n o t l i k e l y t o cover t h e i n t e r e s t charges in full. F o r t h i s t h e r e a r e two m a i n r e a s o n s ( a ) I n t h e e a r l y s t a g e s t h e r i s i n g y i e l d f r o m m o d e r n i s a t i o n w i l l l a g some y e a r s b e h i n d t h e i n c r e a s e d i n t e r e s t c h a r g e s on t h e c a p i t a l works s e t i n t r a i n . The s o w i n g must b e i n a d v a n c e of t h e r e a p i n g . ( b ) I t w i l l b e t w o o r t h r e e y e a r s b e f o r e t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e o t h e r m e a s u r e s now i n p r o g r e s s c a n p r o d u c e a r e a l l y s u b s t a n t i a l e f f e c t on t h e p r e s e n t r u n n i n g r a t e of d e f i c i t . A commercial concern faced with a s i m i l a r s i t u a t i o n , b e i n g f i n a n c e d b y e q u i t y c a p i t a l , would probably a s k i t s s h a r e h o l d e r s t o f o r g o r e m u n e r a t i o n of t h e i r capital d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d of r e c o n s t r u c t i o n . If the shareholders w e r e s a t i s f i e d t h a t t h e u n d e r t a k i n g w a s f u n d a m e n t a l l y sound and t h a t the f u t u r e revenue p r o s p e c t s were s u f f i c i e n t l y good, t h e y would be l i k e l y t o a g r e e . The Commission, h o w e v e r , a r e f i n a n c e d e n t i r e l y b y f i x e d i n t e r e s t c a p i t a l which must c o n t i n u e t o be serviced. T h e y a r e n o t p e r m i t t e d t o b o r r o w money t o c o v e r t h e i r deficits. E v e n i f t h e y w e r e , i t w o u l d o n l y mean a f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e i n t h e a n n u a l d e f i c i t and a s t i l l - m o u n t i n g accum­ u l a t e d d e f i c i t t o be c a r r i e d forward in the balance sheet. By s u c h a p i l i n g o n o f b u r d e n s b e y o n d t h e a b i l i t y of t h e Commission t o meet them d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d , f i n a n c i a l d i s c i p l i n e would b e undermined; t h e a f f a i r s of t h e C o m m i s s i o n w o u l d b e made t o a p p e a r I n a n u n r e a s o n a b l y h o p e l e s s l i g h t , w h i c h "by i t s e f f e c t on p u b l i c o p i n i o n would hamper them c o m m e r c i a l l y a n d b y i t s e f f e c t on t h e i r own s t a f f w o u l d w e a k e n m o r a l e . The p h y s i c a l r e c o v e r y o f B r i t i s h Railways ought, on t h e c o n t r a r y , t o b e matched b y a stimulus- to m o r a l e , an improvement i n p u b l i c e s t e e m , and a firm f i n a n c i a l d i s c i p l i n e d i r e c t e d towards c l e a r financial objectives. 1 0 0 . There i s ample c o v e r b o t h of r e v e n u e and of c a p i t a l f o r d e a l i n g w i t h t h i s s i t u a t i o n i n t h e way i n w h i c h , i t has been s u g g e s t e d , a commercial concern would deal with i t . The b a l a n c e s h e e t a t 3 1 s t D e c e m b e r , 1953? was one of g r e a t i n h e r e n t s t r e n g t h , d e s p i t e t h e d e f i c i t s accumulated. The c a p i t a l a s s e t s , e x c l u d i n g g o o d w i l l , h a d a w r i t t e n down b o o k v a l u e o f o v e r £ 1 , 5 0 0 m . ; their real v a l u e t o d a y i s d e p e n d e n t on t h e i r e a r n i n g p o w e r , no d o u b t , a n d t h i s a g a i n must d e p e n d m a i n l y on t h e f a r e s a n d c h a r g e s which a r e p e r m i t t e d and on t h e b u r d e n s of p u b l i c o b l i g a t i o n which are c a r r i e d ; b u t t h e replacement cost of the t o t a l i n v e s t m e n t , i n t e r m s o f c u r r e n t money v a l u e s , c a n b e p u t a t w e l l o v e r £4,000m. I t i s not proposed to w r i t e r e ­ valued asset figures into the books, as has occasionally b e e n done e l s e w h e r e ? b u t i f t h e a s s e t s w e r e so w r i t t e n u p , t h e n e t a s s e t s would b e t h r e e t i m e s a s l a r g e a s t h e c a p i t a l ' l i a b i l i t i e s ( 1 . e. t h e B r i t i s h T r a n s p o r t Stock i n i s s u e ) o f £-1,444m. 1 0 1 . The p r o s p e c t i v e r e v e n u e r e s u l t s a r e i l l u s t r a t e d b y t h e g r a p h s i n A p p e n d i x D. The e f f e c t o f t h e t i m e - l a g i n t h e f r u c t i f y i n g of new c a p i t a l e x p e n d i t u r e i s s e e n on c u r v e A, w h i c h shows t h a t d u r i n g t h e n e x t few y e a r s t h e r e w i l l b e , n a t u r a l l y and i n e v i t a b l y , a s l i g h t burden ( n e t ) rather than a benefit, but that thereafter there will be a n e t a n n u a l b e n e f i t r i s i n g t o a t l e a s t £45m. a y e a r a f t e r p a y i n g a l l i n t e r e s t on t h e c a p i t a l e x p e n d i t u r e i n v o l v e d . On c u r v e B i s s e e n t h e e f f e c t o f t h e r e m a i n i n g m e a s u r e s now in progress. A f t e r an i n i t i a l worsening of t h e p o s i t i o n , t h e e x i s t i n g d e f i c i t i s r a p i d l y o v e r h a u l e d , and i s t u r n e d i n t o a n e t b e n e f i t o f £5m. T a k i n g t h e two c u r v e s t o g e t h e r , by t h e c l o s e of the 1960's t h e r e i s a t o t a l s u r p l u s revenue o f £50m. a y e a r ( a f t e r c h a r g i n g t o r e v e n u e a l l i n t e r e s t e x c e p t on d e f i c i t s ) b u t t h e c r i t i c a l p e r i o d of r e c o n s t r u c t i o n a n d d e v e l o p m e n t t e r m i n a t e s much e a r l i e r a n d t h e C o m m i s s i o n would p r o b a b l y " c r o s s t h e l i n e " from a n n u a l d e f i c i t t o a n n u a l s u r p l u s i n 1961 o r 1 9 6 2 . The p o s i t i o n a t t h e t h r e e m a j o r p o i n t s o f t i m e shown i n t h e c u r v e s may b e i l l u s t r a t e d i n t h e f o l T o w i n g fignree :­ 1961 or 1962 £m. December 1956 £m. Annual r a t e of d e f i c i t at starting point (excluding interest on d e f i c i t s and f i n a n c e of Modernisation Plan) - kO Improved c o n t r i b u t i o n s from A c t i v i t i e s o t h e r t h a n B r i t i s h Railway I n t e r e s t on Modernisation borrowings Total Note - 1+0 . - 1+0 . Improved c o n t r i b u t i o n from B r i t i s h Railways ( C h a p t e r IV) ( a ) M o d e r n i s a t i o n ( S e c t i o n A) ( b ) P r u n i n g S e r v i c e s ( S e c t i o n B) ( c ) P r o d u c t i v i t y ( S e c t i o n C) ( d ) Freedom ( S e c t i o n D) less: 1970 . £m. - i 5. i - * 35 t - * t - * 5. o r ^ 5 , * - a 5 , ^ H 1 n 0 2 5 i-f5 ^ ^ 0 - 2 7, ^ 2 - 2 4 38 * + 3 4- i+8 S a y , B a l a n c e d S a y , 4- 5 0 - i+2 8 3 : As s t a t e d i n p a r a g r a p h 9 6 , t h e f i g u r e s i n t h e above t a b l e do n o t p r o v i d e f o r i n t e r e s t on a c c u m u l a t e d d e f i c i t s . This, i f c a l c u l a t e d a t t h e r a t e of 5 p e r c e n t , p e r annum, would r e s u l t in a c h a r g e o f a b o u t £6m. a y e a r o n t h e d e f i c i t a t t h e end of 1956, r i s i n g t o a b o u t £20m. f o r t h e y e a r 1961 o r 1962 a n d f a l l i n g a g a i n t o a b o u t £10m. f o r t h e y e a r 1970.' I t w i l l be seen t h a t t h e u l t i m a t e revenue p r o s p e c t s , w h i c h a r e v e r y s a t i s f a c t o r y , d e p e n d m a i n l y on m o d e r n i s a t i o n , b u t when i t i s r e m e m b e r e d , f o r e x a m p l e , t h a t a s t e a m s t o p p i n g t r a i n ( s t o p p i n g t r a i n s c o v e r some 8 0 m i l l i o n t r a i n m i l e s a y e a r ) h a s a movement c o s t of a p p r o x i m a t e l y ten s h i l l i n g s a m i l e , whereas in favourable conditions t h e m u l t i p l e u n i t d i e s e l h a s a movement c o s t o f o n l y a t h i r d o f t h i s f i g u r e , t h e m a g n i t u d e of t h e economies t o be derived from modernisation w i l l b e understandable. I t may b e a d d e d t h a t t h e f i n a n c i a l e x p e c t a t i o n s o f t h e Modernisation Plan have not been f a l s i f i e d by any of t h e d e v e l o p m e n t p r o j e c t s t a c k l e d s i n c e 1954. 1 0 2 . There is., t h e r e f o r e , ample scope f o r a rocon­ s t r u c t i o n of the Commission's f i n a n c e s . Alternatively, t h e r e i s ample c o v e r f o r an o p e r a t i o n b y which t h e Revenue Account of t h e Commission, d u r i n g t h e n e x t few y e a r s of development and r e c o n s t r u c t i o n s should be r e l i e v e d t e m p o r a r i l y of t h e o b l i g a t i o n t o meet t h e e x c e p t i o n a l c h a r g e s ( p a r t l y of a q u a s i - c a p i t a l n a t u r e , p a r t l y l e g a c i e s from t h e p a s t ) f a l l i n g upon i t d u r i n g t h i s time. These amounts a r e r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e shaded a r e a s s h o w n i n A p p e n d i x D. I n t o t a l s o m e £200m. w o u l d b e a c c u m u l a t e d i n s u s p e n s e b y 1961 o r 1 9 6 2 , t o w h i c h m u s t b e a d d e d t h e d e f i c i t o f a b o u t £120m. t o b e c a r r i e d f o r w a r d a t t h e end o f 1956. T h e s e a r e l a r g e sums b u t t h e y a r e not l a r g e compared w i t h t h e l a t e r s u r p l u s e s which s h o u l d b e m o r e t h a n s u f f i c i e n t t o a m o r t i z e any. a m o u n t s s o h e l d i n suspense over a reasonable period. Nor a r e t h e y l a r g e i n r e l a t i o n to. t h e u n d e r t a k i n g a s a w h o l e . 103, I n t h i s s i t u a t i o n t h e Commission u r g e n t l y recommend t h a t some f i n a n c i a l p l a n s h o u l d b e a d o p t e d w h i c h , w h i l e i t a v o i d s s u b s i d y , w i l l p l a c e t h e i r o r g a n i s a t i o n on a f i r m , sound b a s i s d u r i n g t h e s e c r i t i c a l y e a r s of r e c o n ­ struction. They e x p r e s s l y r e q u e s t t h a t a n y r e l i e f t e m p o r a r i l y a c c o r d e d t o them i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e i r immediate o b l i g a t i o n s s h o u l d b e s t r i c t l y l i m i t e d i n time and amount. 10h, The j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r t h i s recommendation i s r e p r e s e n t e d b y t h e f o r e c a s t s g i v e n i n t h i s i')aper. In a l o n g - r a n g e a s s e s s m e n t of t h i s n a t u r e t h e r e a r e n e c e s s a r i l y many i m p o n d e r a b l e s . The f o r e c a s t s a r e s u b j e c t t o t h e basic assumptions stated at the outset; they could be upset by f a c t o r s beyond t h e Commissions c o n t r o l . Never­ t h e l e s s . t h e Commission a r e c o n f i d e n t t h a t i n g e n e r a l terms t h e i r assessment of t h e f u t u r e outlook i s r e l i a b l e and t h a t i t r e p r e s e n t s a p r o p e r b a s i s f o r t h e f o r m u l a t i o n of p o l i c y a t t h i s t i m e . 1 3 SEP 1956 APPENDIX THE PROGRAMME FOR RAILWAY MODERNISATION 1. The f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s d e a l w i t h t h e programme of m o d e r n i s a t i o n works and w i t h t h e associated s c h e d u l e of p r o d u c t i o n of e q u i p m e n t . For c o n v e n i e n c e , t h e programme i s d i v i d e d under t h e main h e a d i n g s of e n g i n e e r i n g a c t i v i t y (a) Electrification. (h) The L o c o m o t i v e B u i l d i n g Programme. (c) (d) (e) T h e C a r r i a g e a n d Wagon B u i l d i n g Civil Engineering. Signal Engineering. Programme. In fact a l l these a c t i v i t i e s a r e interdependent, and i n most p h a s e s of m o d e r n i s a t i o n work, o v e r l a p . For e x a m p l e , i n a n e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n s c h e m e , a l l come i n t o p l a y a n d t h e r a t e o f c o m p l e t i o n may h e g o v e r n e d b y t h e p a c e a t which c i v i l and s i g n a l e n g i n e e r i n g work can be c a r r i e d o u t , r a t h e r than by t h e r a t e of supply and committal t o s e r v i c e of e l e c t r i c a l equipment and r o l l i n g stock. N a t u r a l l y , t h e p l a n s t h a t h a v e b e e n made l a c k d e f i n i t i o n when r e f e r r e d t o t h e l a t e r s t a g e s , t e n y e a r s o r more a h e a d . Concentration has been given to planning the work t h a t must be c a r r i e d o u t d u r i n g t h e n e x t s i x y e a r s . But t h e u l t i m a t e o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e M o d e r n i s a t i o n P l a n h a v e b e e n b o r n e i n mind t h r o u g h o u t . 2. Electrification On 6 t h M a r c h , 1 9 5 6 , t h e C o m m i s s i o n p u b l i s h e d t h e i r d e c i s i o n t o a d o p t t h e 25kV A . C . s y s t e m f o r f u t u r e e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n , t h r o u g h o u t B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s s a v e on t h o s e s e c t i o n s of t h e S o u t h e r n Region where t h e e x i s t i n g 660v. D.C. s y s t e m w o u l d b e e x t e n d e d . Energetic steps were a t once t a k e n , i n c o n j u n c t i o n with t h e manufacturing i n d u s t r y , t o p u t i n hand t h e d e s i g n , development and s u p p l y of t h e new e q u i p m e n t r e q u i r e d , and n o t i f i c a t i o n was g i v e n t o t h e C e n t r a l E l e c t r i c i t y A u t h o r i t y c o n c e r n i n g t h e f i r s t r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r t h e supply of power. A p r e l i m i n a r y programme f o r t h e c o m p l e t i o n of a l l t h e e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n schemes c o n t a i n e d i n t h e Plan has been worked o u t . This takes into consideration the time t h a t i s r e q u i r e d to develop and t e s t in s e r v i c e the c o m p l e t e l y new f o r m s o f e q u i p m e n t a n d r o l l i n g s t o c k r e q u i r e d f o r e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n b y t h e 25kV A . C , s y s t e m , t h e r a t e a t which t h e equipment and r o l l i n g s t o c k can b e manufactured, i n s t a l l e d and p u t i n t o s e r v i c e , and t h e r a t e a t which t h e v e r y l a r g e volume of a s s o c i a t e d C i v i l and S i g n a l E n g i n e e r i n g work can b e c a r r i e d o u t . The p r o v i s i o n a l programme of c o m p l e t i o n i s as follows : - dates London M i d l a n d R e g i o n (25kV A . C . S y s t e m ) . Mid 1 9 5 8 . S l a d e Lane J u n c t i o n ( M a n c h e s t e r ) t o Wilmslow ( T e s t S e c t i o n ) . M a n c h e s t e r t o Orewe. Mid 1 9 5 9 . R e m a i n d e r of Main L i n e e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n , Euston to Manchester and L i v e r p o o l . (Tentative) E a s t e r n R e g i o n (25kV A.G. S y s t e m , e x c e p t where o t h e r w i s e shown). S h e n f i e l d - Southend (1500v. January, D.C. S y s t e m ) Mid 1 9 5 8 . C o n v e r s i o n of L i v e r p o o l S t r e e t , Chelmsford, Southend S e c t i o n s from D. C. t o A, C. S y s t e m . E n f i e l d - C h i n g f o r d , H e r t f o r d and Bishop's Stortford. L o n d o n -Tilbury and Southend Chelmsford t o I p s w i c h and Coastal Branches. K i n g ' s Cross? Moorgate, H i t c h i n and L e t c h w o r t h . Mid 1959. S c o t t i s h R e g i o n ( 25kV A. C. S y s t e m ) . Glasgow S u b u r b a n , Stage I. N o r t h of C l y d e . S t a g e I I . S o u t h of C l y d e . Southern Region (660v. D . C 1957. C o l c h e s t e r - C l a c t o n (25kV. A.C. System) (Test S e c t i o n ) . E a s t e r n and N o r t h E a s t e r n R e g i o n s K i n g ' s C r o s s - York and L e e d s 1967. Mid 1 9 6 0 . Mid 1 9 6 1 . By S t a g e s up t o 1965. (Tentative)1962. ( T e n t a t i v e ) 1970. 1960. 1962. System) E x t e n s i o n of e l e c t r i f i e d l i n e s t o Ramsgate, Dover, Folkestone and H a s t i n g s ( v i a A s h f o r d ) . 1962. The programme h a s b e e n l a i d down t o p r o v i d e f o r work t o p r o c e e d a t t h e most r a p i d r a t e w h i c h t h e combined c a p a c i t y of t h e R a i l w a y s a n d o f p r i v a t e I n d u s t r y i s estimated to allow. The r a t e of e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n a t p r e s e n t p l a n n e d b u i l d s up t o a p e a k i n 1962 and t h e r e a f t e r d e c r e a s e s . At t h e p e a k of p r o d u c t i o n i t w i l l b e n e c e s s a r y t o commission e l e c t r i f i e d s i n g l e t r a c k at t h e r a t e of 1 ,000 m i l e s p e r annum, a n d t o p l a c e i n s e r v i c e a t l e a s t 200 e l e c t r i c l o c o m o t i v e s a n d 900 e l e c t r i c m u l t i p l e u n i t t r a i n c o a c h e s p e r annum. After 1962, i t i s estimated t h a t c a p a c i t y w i l l b e a v a i l a b l e f o r u n d e r t a k i n g e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n works i n a d d i t i o n t o those provided for in the Plan. The Commission have under c o n s i d e r a t i o n p r o p o s a l s by which advantage­ c o u l d b e t a k e n of t h i s , so a s t o e x p l o i t t o t h e f u l l t h e g r e a t o p e r a t i o n a l and economic b e n e f i t s t h e Railways w i l l d e r i v e from a w i d e r e x t e n s i o n of e l e c t r i c t r a c t i o n . 3* The L o c o m o t i v e B u i l d i n g (a) Steam Locomotives Programme : The C o m m i s s i o n h a v e a l r e a d y a n n o u n c e d t h a t no new express passenger or suburban steam locomotives w i l l b e b u i l t a f t e r t h e 1956 b u i l d i n g programme. A f u r t h e r 8k h e a v y f r e i g h t a n d 61 m i x e d t r a f f i c s t e a m l o c o m o t i v e s w i l l be b u i l t d u r i n g 1957 and e a r l y i n 1958? c o m p l e t i n g e x i s t i n g programmes. Pew, i f a n y , t h e r e a f t er. (b ) E l e c t r i c steam locomotives w i l l be Locomotives built : E l e c t r i c l o c o m o t i v e s , now i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t s t a g e , w i l l b e s u p p l i e d by m a n u f a c t u r e r s d u r i n g 1958 i n s m a l l numbers i n p r o t o t y p e form. Thereafter, a f t e r f i n a l designs have been s e t t l e d , production w i l l r a p i d l y b e s t e p p e d up t o r e a c h t h e p e a k o f o v e r 200 p e r annum d u r i n g 1 9 6 1 . (c) Diesel Shunting Locomotives : T h e r e a r e a t p r e s e n t i n u s e on B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s 510 d i e s e l s h u n t i n g l o c o m o t i v e s . This t o t a l w i l l b e i n c r e a s e d t o a b o u t 900 l o c o m o t i v e s on c o m p l e t i o n of a u t h o r i s e d programmes i n 1958. The P l a n e n v i s a g e s a f u r t h e r 1,200 s h u n t i n g l o c o ­ m o t i v e s b e i n g r e q u i r e d t o r e p l a c e t h e 1,500 s t e a m s h u n t i n g locomotives which w i l l s t i l l then remain. P r o g r a m m e s now i n p r e p a r a t i o n p r o v i d e f o r t h e s u p p l y o f a b o u t 700 d i e s e l l o c o m o t i v e s , d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d 1 9 5 8 - 1 9 6 2 , a n d i f p o s s i b l e t h e r a t e of s u p p l y w i l l be a c c e l e r a t e d . By 1 9 6 2 t h e p l a n s p r o v i d e shunters in service. for about 1,600 diesel T h e r e a f t e r t h e r e m a i n d e r of t h e d i e s e l l o c o m o t i v e s r e q u i r e d to dispense with steam shunting a l t o g e t h e r w i l l be obtained as r a p i d l y as circumstances w i l l allow. C o n s i d e r a b l e s a v i n g s v / i l l flow from t h i s t r a n s ­ formation. A p a r t from i n s t a n t a v a i l a b i l i t y o f f e r e d by t h e d i e s e l s h u n t e r , and t h e small l o s s of o p e r a t i n g time r e q u i r e d f o r s e r v i c i n g , i t can be o p e r a t e d by o n e man. (d.) Main L i n e D i e s e l L o c o m o t i v e s : O r d e r s h a v e b e e n p l a c e d f o r 174 m a i n l i n e l o c o m o t i v e s a t a c o s t of £11.4 m i l l i o n . . w i l l commence t o w a r d s t h e e n d of 1957. These have been a l l o c a t e d London M i d l a n d Eastern Western Southern t o Regions 65 80 14 -15 as diesel Delivery follows A l t h o u g h t h e f i r s t c o s t of d i e s e l l o c o m o t i v e s i s t h r e e t o f o u r t i m e s t h a t of s t e a m l o c o m o t i v e s of comparable power, d e p r e c i a t i o n i s a small item in t h e t o t a l c o s t of p r o v i d i n g l o c o m o t i v e h a u l a g e . D i e s e l l o c o m o t i v e s can c o v e r l a r g e m i l e a g e s w i t h o u t t h e f r e q u e n t and l e n g t h y a b s e n c e s from s e r v i c e r e ­ q u i r e d b y steam l o c o m o t i v e s f o r f u e l l i n g s e r v i c e and m a i n t e n a n c e s , a n d much l o w e r o p e r a t i n g c o s t s a r e p o s s i b l e w h e n f u l l a d v a n t a g e i s t a k e n of t h e i r capacities. The f i r s t f l e e t of m a i n l i n e d i e s e l l o c o m o t i v e s i s t o be put i n t o i n t e n s i v e o p e r a t i o n , under careful o b s e r v a t i o n , a n d i s i n t e n d e d t o b e t h e s u b j e c t of a thorough and s e l e c t i v e t r i a l . E s s e n t i a l d a t a w i l l be o b t a i n e d i n t h e s h o r t e s t p o s s i b l e t i m e t o e n a b l e t h e Commission t o p l a c e o r d e r s f o r l a r g e numbers of l o c o m o t i v e s i n s t a n d a r d t y p e s , s p e c i f y i n g d e s i g n s which can b e depended upon t o g i v e t h e s e r v i c e t h e y r e q u i r e . Until these t r i a l s intend to r e s t r i c t small numbers. h a v e b e e n . c o m p l e t e d , t h e Commission f u r t h e r orders to comparatively By 1 9 6 1 , h o w e v e r , i t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t a n n u a l o r d e r s w i l l r e a c h a l e v e l of a b o u t 200 l o c o m o t i v e s and t h a t t h i s r a t e of p r o d u c t i o n w i l l be r e q u i r e d t o c o n t i n u e each y e a r f o r an i n d e f i n i t e p e r i o d . The C a r r i a g e a n d Wagon B u i l d i n g (a) Passenger Rolling Stock Programme. : D u r i n g t h e p e r i o d o f s e v e n y e a r s e n d i n g i n December 1962, i t i s expected t h a t a t o t a l of about 20,000 c o a c h i n g v e h i c l e s of a l l k i n d s v / i l l b e c o n s t r u c t e d , r e p l a c i n g about 25,000 e x i s t i n g v e h i c l e s , including a l l t h e r e m a i n i n g w o o d e n - b o d i e d c o a c h e s , some 1 4 , 0 0 0 i n number. The p r o g r a m m e i s b a s e d upon a s u b s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e i n t h e r a t e of r e p l a c e m e n t of v e h i c l e s of o b s o l e t e t y p e , which a t t h e p r e s e n t r a t e would have t o be r e t a i n e d in s e r v i c e for a f u r t h e r four or f i v e years. The programme c o v e r s u n i t s o f a l l t y p e s , a n d a p a r t from l o c o m o t i v e h a u l e d s t o c k ? i n c l u d e s e l e c t r i c m u l t i p l e u n i t s t o c k , and d i e s e l m u l t i p l e u n i t s t o c k of v a r i e d d e s i g n s . (i) Multiple Unit Electric Stock D u r i n g t h e p e r i o d e n d i n g i n 1962 a t o t a l o f i+,500 e l e c t r i c m u l t i p l e u n i t v e h i c l e s w i l l he r e q u i r e d t o cover t h e needs of e l e c t r i f i ­ c a t i o n of t h e M a n c h e s t e r - C r e w e l i n e ? w i t h e x t e n s i o n s towards Euston? and of t h e o t h e r e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n schemes i n S o u t h - e a s t Essex? E a s t Kent? Glasgow? t h e K i n g ' s Gross s u b u r b a n l i n e s ? and extensions of t h e e x i s t i n g e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n to Ipswich and c o a s t a l branches. The m a j o r i t y o f t h e s t o c k w i l l b e o f t h e o p e n suburban t y p e . Special attention is being g i v e n t o t h e development of a h i g h s t a n d a r d of r i d i n g q u a l i t y ? and t h e s p e c i a l requirements of t h e s u b u r b a n o r s h o r t d i s t a n c e p a s s e n g e r are b e i n g s t u d i e d i n r e l a t i o n t o i n t e r n a l design. D u r i n g most of t h e p e r i o d ? a r a t e of p r o d u c t i o n o f 900 v e h i c l e s a y e a r w i l l b e r e q u i r e d . The f i r s t s u p p l i e s o f p r o t o t y p e u n i t s f o r s e r v i c e o n l i n e s e l e c t r i f i e d b y t h e 25kV A . C . system a r e expected t o be a v a i l a b l e for t r i a l s i n t h e l a t e r months of 1957. (ii) Multiple Unit Diesel Vehicles The M o d e r n i s a t i o n P l a n e n v i s a g e d 4 , 6 0 0 of t h i s t y p e b e i n g p l a c e d i n s e r v i c e . vehicles Contracts have already been placed in railway s h o p s a n d w i t h m a n u f a c t u r e r s ? f o r 2,1+01? w h i c h a r e e x p e c t e d t o b e c o m p l e t e d i n 1958. The f o l l o w i n g t a b l e g i v e s d e t a i l s of t h e s e r v i c e s t o which t h e s e v e h i c l e s have been Two h u n d r e d a n d s e v e n t y - t w o allocated. vehicles are already in service. I t i s a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t t h e remainder of t h e 4*600 v e h i c l e s c o v e r e d b y t h e P l a n w i l l b e i n s e r v i c e b e f o r e t h e e n d o f 19,61. DIESEL MULTIPLE UNIT VEHICLES ALLOCATION FOP PERIOD ENDING DECEMBER 1 9 5 8 . Operating Region Type a n d Service Motor Cars Trailer Cars Inter-City Scottish Glasgow-Edinburgh 31 15 Western Birmingham-Swansea 12 6 Scottish Glasgow-Ayr-Girvan 44 22 Suburban ( B r i s t o l Area (London A r e a ( S . Yifales A r e a ( C a r d i f f Area ( B i r m i n g h a m Area 20 28 30 90 36 10 14 11 43 18 62 37 37 25 19 48 62 37 37 25 19 44 31 78 62 63 42 31 78 62 39 7 18 7 82 206 7 13 7 58 117 34 17 36 56 10 62 31 18 9 5 29 21 Western Eastern North Eastern Cross Country or Branch (East Anglia (Norwich (Lincoln (Cambridge (Colchester ,West R i d i n g .Newcastle-Middles­ brough-Carlisle ,Hull Area ' York-Leeds-Scarboro. ^County Durham ' O t h e r N . E . schemes k London Midland [North Wales J/. Cumberland "Bury-Bacup B i r m i n g h a m schemes M a n c h e s t e r schemes Derby-LeicesterNottingham i Western (Birmingham A r e a "Bristol (London S. Wales O t h e r schemes Diesel Southern Electric (London-Hastings (Hampshire GRAND TOTAL The t r a i n s d e s c r i b e d , a b o v e ? w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n of t h o s e r e q u i r e d f o r t h e London-Hastings s e r v i c e ? a r e b u i l t t o a number of b a s i c d e s i g n s ? and a r e f i t t e d with u n d e r - f l o o r engines and mechanical or hydraulic transmissions. The i n t e r n a l d e s i g n o f t h e c a r s suit local requirements. is adjusted to D e v e l o p m e n t w o r k i s n o w p r o c e e d i n g on t w o f u r t h e r t y p e s of d i e s e l t r a i n s of r a d i c a l l y d i f f e r i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ? one f o r u s e i n h i g h speed? l u x u r y ? main l i n e s e r v i c e s ? and the other f o r o p e r a t i o n i n l i g h t l y u s e d b r a n c h l i n e s w h e r e economy of r u n n i n g cost i s t h e prime c o n s i d e r a t i o n . The h i g h s p e e d l u x u r y t r a i n w i l l r u n b e t w e e n l a r g e c i t i e s and w i l l contain a l l that i s best t o offer f o r t h e comfort and a m e n i t y of t h e p a s s e n g e r . It i s e x p e c t e d t h a t a few of t h e s e t r a i n s w i l l be in o p e r a t i o n t o w a r d s t h e e n d o f 1958? a n d t h e i r f u r t h e r i n t r o d u c t i o n w i l l d e p e n d u p o n t h e way i n which t h e y a r e received by the t r a v e l l i n g p u b l i c . A l i g h t r a i l car? powered with a s i n g l e u n d e r - f l o o r d i e s e l e n g i n e ? a n d d e s i g n e d t o a c h i e v e maximum e c o n o m y i n r u n n i n g a n d m a i n t e n a n c e c o s t s may p r o v e o f g r e a t v a l u e ? s i n c e some r a i l s e r v i c e s i n r u r a l areas? a t present running a t a loss greater than can be c o u n t e r - b a l a n c e d b y t h e u s e of p r e s e n t t y p e s o f d i e s e l t r a i n s ? may t h e r e b y b e p r e s e r v e d . The C o m m i s s i o n i n t e n d t o c a r r y o u t e x t e n s i v e p r a c t i c a l t r i a l s w i t h such v e h i c l e s in a number of r u r a l s e r v i c e s throughout the country? giving p a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n t o t h e c h a n g i n g n e e d s of t h e c o u n t r y p a s s e n g e r ? and t o economic o p e r a t i o n i n all its aspects. I t i s h o p e d t o commence t h e t r i a l s i n 1957. (iii) Locomotive Hauled Stock W h a t e v e r may b e t h e t r e n d i n f a v o u r o f m u l t i p l e u n i t e x p r e s s t r a i n s ? t h e need w i l l continue to haul long distance t r a f f i c by locomotives? e i t h e r e l e c t r i c o r d i e s e l ? a n d f o r many y e a r s ? s t e a m . D u r i n g t h e p e r i o d 1956/1962? a b o u t 7,700 way ed l o c o m o t i v e h a u l e d c o a c h e s f o r m a i n operation will be built. gang­ line New s t a n d a r d c o a c h e s a r e b e i n g d e v e l o p e d w h i c h w i l l p r o v i d e v e r y much i m p r o v e d p a s s e n g e r accommodation? i n which s p e c i a l a t t e n t i o n has been paid to Smooth r i d i n g . Comfortable seating. A t t r a c t i v e decor. H e a t i n g , V e n t i l a t i o n and L i g h t i n g . R e d u c t i o n of n o i s e . Improved t o i l e t f a c i l i t i e s . Cleanliness. I t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t v e h i c l e s of improved w i l l b e g i n t o a p p e a r d u r i n g 1957. design New a n d i m p r o v e d t y p e s o f R e s t a u r a n t Cars a r e b e i n g d e v e l o p e d , and i t i s a f i v e - y e a r programme of r e p l a c e m e n t p r e s e n t s t o c k w i l l commence t o w a r d s 1957. i n v o l v i n g t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of 600 v e h i c l e s . and B u f f e t intended that of t h e t h e end. o f a f l e e t of D u r i n g t h e 1956/62 p e r i o d a programme of c o n s t r u c t i o n w i l l be undertaken covering a f u r t h e r 2 , 8 0 0 v e h i c l e s of v a r i o u s t y p e s , c l a s s e d as coaching v e h i c l e s , such as l u g g a g e ' v a n s , f i s h v a n s , m a i l vans and t h e l i k e . (b) Freight Rolling ( i ) Mineral Stock Vfagons The p l a n p r o v i d e s f o r t h e r e p l a c e m e n t of a l l r e m a i n i n g low c a p a c i t y t i m b e r - b o d i e d c o a l wagons by a l l - s t e e l wagons of h i g h e r c a p a c i t y . Existing c o n t r a c t s f o r m a n u f a c t u r e of t h e 1 6 - t o n s t e e l w a g o n w i l l , b y t h e e n d o f 1957 h a v e p r o v i d e d B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s w i t h a t o t a l f l e e t of 3 2 0 , 0 0 0 o f this type. About 190,000 low c a p a c i t y t i m b e r ­ b o d i e d wagons w i l l r e m a i n . These w i l l be r e ­ p l a c e d b y 2l4-i-ton s t e e l wagons t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t traders terminal f a c i l i t i e s will permit, but it h a s become a p p a r e n t t h a t t h e i r u s e w i l l be l i m i t e d d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d of t h e M o d e r n i s a t i o n P l a n . It i s t h e r e f o r e n e c e s s a r y t o c o n s t r u c t a wagon o f s l i g h t l y lower capacity; 21/22-tons? to give as wide a use as p o s s i b l e . 1 S u c h a w a g o n i s now b e i n g designed. P l a n s a r e b e i n g made t o b u i l d n u m b e r s of h i g h c a p a c i t y w a g o n s , l a r g e l y o f t h e new 2 1 / 2 2 - t o n t y p e i n a l o n g t e r m programme commencing i n 1958, w i t h a t a r g e t of t h e c o m p l e t e r e p l a c e m e n t of t h e 190,000 o l d w a g o n s b y 1966 b y a r e d u c e d n u m b e r o f h i g h c a p a c i t y wagons. S i m i l a r l y , wagons f o r t h e t r a n s p o r t of i r o n ore w i l l b e of h i g h e r c a p a c i t y , and w h e r e i t i s e c o n o m i c and d e s i r a b l e t o do so i n t h e i n t e r e s t s of t h e t r a d e r and B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s , s p e c i a l wagons w i t h h i g h a x l e l o a d i n g and w i t h l i m i t e d r o u t e a v a i l a b i l i t y w i l l b e b u i l t to be o p e r a t e d i n c i r c u i t working. (ii) General Merchandise Wagons Under t h i s h e a d i n g , wagons w i l l b e b u i l t i n a n n u a l programmes t o meet t h e c h a n g i n g n e e d s of i n d u s t r y ? and i n a d d i t i o n t o v e h i c l e s of t h e s t a n d a r d t y p e s ? wagons a r e b e i n g , and w i l l c o n t i n u e t o be d e s i g n e d of a s p e c i a l i s e d c h a r a c t e r for the c a r r i a g e of s p e c i f i c t y p e s o f t r a f f i c , e . g. c e m e n t i n b u l k ? s t e e l s t r i p c o i l , p a l l e t i s e d consignments? c o n t a i n e r s . The p l a n s p r o v i d e f o r a t o t a l of 255?O00 w a g o n s t y p e s t o b e b u i l t d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d 1956/70. of all 9 sit - 9 Containers The d e s i g n o f c o n t a i n e r s i s "being r e v i e w e d ? a n d i t i s expected that there w i l l be considerable d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h i s t y p e of t r a f f i c . I t i s p r o b a b l e t h a t a n a v e r a g e o f 5*000 c o n t a i n e r s a year will be constructed during the period " . 1956/62. (iii) Continuous B r a k e s on F r e i g h t Trains The C o m m i s s i o n h a v e d e c i d e d t o a d o p t t h e v a c u u m b r a k e as s t a n d a r d f o r f r e i g h t r o l l i n g stock? and to f i t brakes to a l l stock as quickly as p o s s i b l e . The r a t e o f f i t t i n g of f a c t o r s , n o t a b l y is dependent :­ upon a number ( a ) T h e r a t e a t w h i c h t h e n e c e s s a r y e q u i p m e n t can be p r o v i d e d by i n d u s t r y and.by r a i l w a y ,shops; ijyi;:.: ( b ) The r a t e a t which t h e equipment can b e f i t t e d i n t o wagons, and o t h e r n e c e s s a r y m o d i f i c a t i o n s made; and ( c ) T h e r a t e a t w h i c h t h e w a g o n s c a n b e r e l e a s e d f r o m t r a f f i c a n d moved t o t h e workshops where f i t t i n g i s t o take p l a c e . T h e o p e r a t i o n o f f r e i g h t t r a i n s a t s p e e d s u p t o 60 m i l e s p e r hour, e n t a i l s m o d i f i c a t i o n s t o v a r i o u s t y p e s o f wagon a p a r t from f i t t i n g of b r a k e s . For example, i t i s necessary to close couple a l l freight stock running a t t h e s e high speeds, and t h i s w i l l e n t a i l t h e p r o v i s i o n of s c r e w t y p e c o u p l i n g s a n d new b u f f e r s . M i n e r a l wagon o p e r a t i o n a t e x p r e s s s p e e d s r e q u i r e s . . , t h e l a r g e r m i n e r a l wagons t o b e f i t t e d w i t h r o l l e r bearings. T h i s w i l l . i n v o l v e t h e f i t t i n g o f some 600,000 r o l l e r b e a r i n g a x l e b o x e s t o e x i s t i n g wagons. A r r a n g e m e n t s must a l s o b e made t o p r o v i d e f o r t h e ­ m a i n t e n a n c e of t h e m e c h a n i c a l b r a k e equipment and f o r t e s t i n g i n m a r s h a l l i n g y a r d s and goods d e p o t s a s w e l l a s i n v/orks and o u t s t a t i o n s . Taking a l l t h e s e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s i n t o a c c o u n t , and h a v i n g r e g a r d to t h e numbers and v a r y i n g t y p e s of , v e h i c l e i n v o l v e d , t h e programme f o r f i t t i n g continuous brakes to a l l f r e i g h t stock has been d e s i g n e d i n i t i a l l y t o cover a p e r i o d of t e n y e a r s , but i t i s hoped t h a t t h i s p e r i o d might be reduced, a n d e v e r y e f f o r t t o t h i s end w i l l b e m a d e . "2 The p r e l i m i n a r y programme of f i t t i n g follows:- (iv) is as Year Fitting to Existing Wagons By new Building T o t a l Number of Wagons t o "be f i t t e d 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 196U 1965 1 966 25,000 47,500 47,500 47,500 . 47 * 5.00. 47,500 47,500 47,500 47,500 47,500 17,000 28,000 24,000 19,000 19,500 19,000 18,000 15,000 10,000 10,000 42,000 75,500 71 , 5 0 0 66,500 67,000 66 , 5 0 0 65,000 62,500 57,500 57,500 . Development The Commission h a v e r e c e n t l y a u t h o r i s e d t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t , a t F a v e r d a l e Works, D a r l i n g t o n , of a development u n i t f u l l y equipped t o d e a l w i t h a l l a s p e c t s o f C a r r i a g e and Wagon development. T h i s u n i t w i l l i n i t i a t e and c a r r y out development on a w i d e r a n g e of c a r r i a g e and wagon s u b j e c t s , i n some c a s e s i n c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h i n d u s t r y . It w i l l cover, such m a t t e r s a s : ­ ( a ) D e s i g n a n d p r o t o t y p e p r o d u c t i o n of new d e s i g n s o f r o l l i n g s t o c k and c a r r i a g e bogies; ( b ) D e s i g n a n d e x p e r i m e n t a l p r o d u c t i o n o f i m p r o v e d a x l e b o x e s , d r a w g e a r , b u f f e r s and brake d e t a i l s ; ( c ) D e v e l o p m e n t s of new m e t h o d s of h e a t i n g a n d v e n t i l a t i n g of c o a c h i n g s t o c k ; ( d ) E n t i r e l y new c o n c e p t i o n s which m i g h t b e i n s p i r e d b y t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y of new m a t e r i a l s o r new p r o c e s s e s . I t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t t h i s u n i t would be a b l e t o s t a r t i t s work w i t h i n t w e l v e m o n t h s , a n d w i l l b e b u i l t up t o b e f u l l y o p e r a t i v e i n two y e a r s . C i v i l E n g i n e e r i n g Work The- f o l l o w i n g p a r a g r a p h s o u t l i n e t h e main f e a t u r e s of t h e work : ­ (a) Works A s s o c i a t e d w i t h Electrification The p r i n c i p a l w o r k s r e q u i r e d f o r e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n a r e p r e p a r a t i o n of t h e t r a c k f o r h i g h e r s p e e d s , s t r u c t u r a l a n d t r a c k a l t e r a t i o n s a t s t a t i o n s and j u n c t i o n s , b r i d g e and t u n n e l a l t e r a t i o n s to p r o ­ vide for e l e c t r i c a l c l e a r a n c e s , and the construction of d e p o t s f o r t h e new m o t i v e power and r o l l i n g stock. Work i s . a l r e a d y i n h a n d on t h e s t r e n g t h e n i n g of t h e r o a d b e d and e x t e n s i v e r e - b a l l a s t i n g and a d d i t i o n a l r e l a y i n g of t r a c k as n e c e s s a r y on t h e l i n e s i n c l u d e d i n t h e f i r s t s t a g e s of e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n . S u r v e y s a r e i n hand t o . d e t e r m i n e t h e d e t a i l s of the s t r u c t u r a l a l t e r a t i o n s required to give e l e c t r i c a l c l e a r a n c e s j and s i t e w o r k , a l r e a d y commenced t o c o v e r t h e e a r l y s t a g e s , w i l l b e a c o n t i n u i n g xorocess t h r o u g h o u t t h e s p r e a d of electrification. ( b ) O t h e r T r a c k Works I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e t r a c k improvement work r e q u i r e d on l i n e s t o b e e l e c t r i f i e d , s i m i l a r work must b e c a r r i e d o u t on o t h e r m a i n l i n e s t o meet t h e h i g h e r speeds t h a t w i l l be a t t a i n e d by e x p r e s s d i e s e l h a u l e d t r a i n s and h i g h s p e e d m u l t i p l e u n i t d i e s e l trains. Goods l i n e s must a l s o b e improved t o a l l o w f o r t h e f a s t e r s p e e d s o f f r e i g h t o p e r a t i o n made p o s s i b l e by t h e c o n t i n u o u s b r a k e . Orders have been p l a c e d f o r a d d i t i o n a l heavy mechanised equipment t o a s s i s t i n t h i s work. By 1 9 5 8 t h e r e w i l l b e a v a i l a b l e , f o r s e r v i c e 100 b a l l a s t t a m p i n g m a c h i n e s and 16 b a l l a s t c l e a n i n g machines. Orders have a l s o been p l a c e d for four e l e c t r i c r a i l w e l d e r s w h i c h w i l l b e d e l i v e r e d i n 1957 and 1958. When t h e s e h a v e b e e n r e c e i v e d a n d i n s t a l l e d i n d e p o t s , a n e x t e n s i v e programme o f i n s t a l l a t i o n of l o n g welded r a i l s w i l l be u n d e r t a k e n . W i t h t h e e l i m i n a t i o n of t h e r a i l j o i n t , t r a c k m a i n t e n a n c e c o s t s w i l l be r e d u c e d , and smoother r i d i n g of t r a i n s ' w i l l r e s u l t . ( c ) B u i l d i n g , S t r u c t u r a l a n d O t h e r Heavy C o n s t r u c t i o n Work A w i d e r a n g e of work i s t o b e u n d e r t a k e n , a p a r t from t h a t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n , The p l a n n i n g of b u i l d i n g work i s c h a r a c t e r , a n d must b e b u i l t up item. Hence i t i s n o t p o s s i b l e g i v e a c o m p r e h e n s i v e p i c t u r e of work c o v e r e d b y t h e P l a n . involved in i n d e t a i l , i t e m by at t h i s stage to t h e w h o l e of t h e B u i l d i n g work w i l l i n c l u d e s t a t i o n r e c o n s t r u c t i o n a n d i m p r o v e m e n t s , t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of new d e p o t s f o r d i e s e l l o c o m o t i v e s and m u l t i p l e u n i t t r a i n s a n d o t h e r r o l l i n g s t o c k , a n d t h e p r o v i s i o n of new freight terminals. Much of t h i s work i s a l r e a d y i n hand. Important s t a t i o n r e c o n s t r u c t i o n s have been a u t h o r i s e d a t P e t e r b o r o u g h , P l y m o u t h , B a n b u r y and Cannon S t r e e t a n d many o t h e r schemes a r e i n t h e design stage. New m a i n t e n a n c e d e p o t s f o r d i e s e l m u l t i p l e u n i t t r a i n s a r e a u t h o r i s e d at L i n c o l n , Norwich, S t r a t f o r d , Glasgow, Ayr, Edinburgh, D a r l i n g t o n , S t . L e o n a r d s , T y s e l e y and C a r d i f f ( C a n t o n ) . A model l a y o u t o f a d i e s e l t r a i n d e p o t h a s b e e n e v o l v e d , and d e t a i l s h a v e b e e n i s s u e d f o r t h e g u i d a n c e of d e s i g n e r s . C o n s i d e r a b l e changes a r e f o r e s e e n i n t h e d e s i g n and l a y o u t o f f r e i g h t t e r m i n a l s t o f a c i l i t a t e i n t e r c h a n g e of g o o d s a n d c o n t a i n e r s from r o a d t o r a i l , and t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of model d e s i g n s i s under close study. Over £ 1 4 m i l l i o n h a s a l r e a d y b e e n a u t h o r i s e d f o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of new m a r s h a l l i n g y a r d s , w h i c h , f o r t h e C i v i l E n g i n e e r s , i n v o l v e heavy earthwork and e x t e n s i v e t r a c k l a y i n g . The most i m p o r t a n t works so f a r a u t h o r i s e d a r e t h o s e a t R i p p l e Lane ( B a r k i n g ) , M i l l e r h i l l ( E d i n b u r g h ) , T h o r n t o n ( F i f e ) , P e r t h , Temple M i l l s and P o r t T a l b o t . A h e a v y programme of b r i d g e r e c o n s t r u c t i o n i s c o n t e m p l a t e d , t o overcome a r r e a r s which s t i l l r e ­ main a s t h e r e s u l t of t h e w a r , a n d t h e s t e e l s h o r t a g e s which followed. The p l a n s a r e d e s i g n e d a s f a r a s p o s s i b l e , t o c a r r y o u t b r i d g e r e n e w a l s on l i n e s t o b e e l e c t r i f i e d i n a d v a n c e of t h e o p e n i n g of t h e new s e r v i c e s , so a s t o a v o i d p l a c i n g s p e e d r e s t r i c t i o n s on them a t a l a t e r d a t e , n e c e s s a r y ' d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d of reconstruction. I t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t t h e l e v e l of e x p e n d i t u r e on t h e s e works w i l l b u i l d up t o a l e v e l of a b o u t £25 m i l l i o n a y e a r b y 1959 a n d w i l l s u b s e q u e n t l y b e m a i n t a i n e d a t t h i s l e v e l u n t i l t h e l a t e r s t a g e s of t h e Plan have been reached. In a c h i e v i n g t h i s o u t p u t , c o n s i d e r a b l e a s s i s t a n c e w i l l b e r e q u i r e d from C o n s u l t a n t s and C o n t r a c t o r s , a n d t h e y a r e a l r e a d y b e i n g employed t o an ever i n c r e a s i n g extent. 6. S i g n a l E n g i n e e r i n g Y\fork The work of t h e S i g n a l E n g i n e e r may b e considered under the following f i v e heads : ­ (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) Work a s s o c i a t e d w i t h E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n . I n s t a l l a t i o n of A u t o m a t i c T r a i n C o n t r o l . S i g n a l l i n g of new M a r s h a l l i n g Y a r d s . O t h e r S i g n a l M o d e r n i s a t i o n Works. Telecommunications. Q 6 The f o l l o w i n g p a r a g r a p h s o u t l i n e t h e main f e a t u r e s o f t h e work : ­ ( a ) Work A s s o c i a t e d w i t h Electrification The e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n of a l i n e of r a i l v r a y h a s a v e r y c o n s i d e r a b l e e f f e c t on t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s , f o r signalling. There i s not only the n e c e s s i t y t o t a k e measures to avoid e l e c t r i c a l i n t e r f e r e n c e and p h y s i c a l o b s t r u c t i o n t o t h e s i g h t i n g of semaphore s i g n a l s ? b u t in a d d i t i o n t h e r e a r e t h e changes n e c e s s a r y to c a t e r f o r the i n c r e a s e d d e n s i t y and s p e e d o f t r a f f i c w h i c h e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n makes p o s s i b l e . For t h e s e r e a s o n s i t i s g e n e r a l l y t h e p r a c t i c e to c a r r y out a complete r e - s i g n a l l i n g of t h e l i n e w h i l e i t i s b e i n g e l e c t r i f i e d . This i n v o l v e s t h e p r o v i s i o n of t r a c k c i r c u i t i n g t h r o u g h ­ o u t , t h e r e p l a c e m e n t o f s e m a p h o r e s i g n a l s b y a much g r e a t e r number of c o l o u r l i g h t s and t h e c e n t r a l i s ­ a t l o n of t r a f f i c c o n t r o l a t l a r g e c e n t r e s in the i n t e r e s t s of l a b o u r economy and f r e e t r a f f i c f l o w . The programme of work f o r s i g n a l l i n g i s i n accordance with the o v e r a l l t i m e - t a b l e for e l c c t r i ­ f i c a t i o n a l r e a d y s e t o u t i n S e c t i o n 2, ( b ) I n s t a l l a t i o n of A u t o m a t i c T r a i n Control P l a n s a r e b e i n g made f o r a u t o m a t i c t r a i n c o n t r o l t o b e p r o v i d e d on t h e m a i n t r a f f i c r o u t e s t h r o u g h ­ out t h e country. During the period 1956-1962, the following w i l l be equipped routes London ( K i n g ' s C r o s s ) v i a N e w c a s t l e t o E d i n b u r g h . London ( E u s t o n ) t o Glasgow ( i n c l u d i n g M a n c h e s t e r and Liverpool). E d i n b u r g h t o Glasgow. London ( W a t e r l o o ) t o Bournemouth a n d E x e t e r , London ( L i v e r p o o l S t r e e t ) t o Norwich, ( c ) S i g n a l l i n g of New M a r s h a l l i n g : Yards A p a r t from t h e s i g n a l l i n g and c o m m u n i c a t i o n s s y s t e m r e q u i r e d i n t h e y a r d s , t h e programme a l l o w s f o r t h e i n s t a l l a t i o n of a u t o m a t i c b r a k i n g e q u i p m e n t t o c o n t r o l t h e s p e e d of wagons d u r i n g g r a v i t y s h u n t i n g . Considerable developments a r e a n t i c i p a t e d in t h i s f i e l d , i n t h e p r o v i s i o n of a u t o m a t i c c o n t r o l d e v i c e s f o r t h e b r a k e s , so e l i m i n a t i n g human e r r o r , and e n a b l i n g s h u n t i n g t o c o n t i n u e i n fog and o t h e r adverse conditions. ( d ) O t h e r S i g n a l l i n g M o d e r n i s a t i o n Works Work programmed u n d e r t h i s h e a d i n g c o v e r s t h e p r o v i s i o n of t r a c k c i r c u i t i n g and c o l o u r l i g h t s i g n a l l i n g i n a l a r g e number of l o c a l i t i e s , w h e r e the e x i s t i n g s i g n a l l i n g systems are inadequate to d e a l e f f i c i e n t l y w i t h t h e h i g h e r s p e e d s and f r e q u e n c y of t h e f u t u r e s e r v i c e s . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e schemes p r o v i d e f o r more e c o n o m i c a l o p e r a t i o n b y t h e r e p l a c e m e n t of n u m b e r s of outmoded m a n u a l l y o p e r a t e d s i g n a l b o x e s b y s i n g l e modern power b o x e s . ( e ) The t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s . s y s t e m - n e t w o r k of B r i t i s h R a i l w a y s i s i n a d e q u a t e t o d e a l w i t h modern conditions. The p l a n s p r o v i d e f o r a n a u t o m a t i c "on demand" s e r v i c e between a l l important p o i n t s . Many y e a r s w i l l e l a p s e b e f o r e t h e work can b e c o m p l e t e d . A commencement w i l l b e made b y t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n , i n i m p o r t a n t l o c a l i t i e s , of s e v e r a l e x c h a n g e s i n t o one a u t o m a t i c e x c h a n g e , and b y i n c r e a s i n g t e l e p h o n e r o u t e c a p a c i t y where m o s t n e e d e d . I n t e n s e study i s being given to the extended use of t e l e p r i n t e r s e r v i c e s , and- o f t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f e l e c t r o n i c d e v i c e s t o t h e g a t h e r i n g , s t o r a g e and p r e s e n t a t i o n of c o n t r o l i n f o r m a t i o n . I t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t t h e l e v e l of e x p e n d i t u r e on S i g n a l E n g i n e e r i n g work w i l l . b u i l d up t o a b o u t £12 m i l l i o n a y e a r by 1958 a n d t h e r e a f t e r c o n t i n u e a t a b o u t t h e same l e v e l . This w i l l r e q u i r e a considerable e x p a n s i o n i n t h e o u t p u t of S i g n a l l i n g M a n u f a c t u r e r s a n d C o n t r a c t o r s , who a r e a w a r e o f t h e n e e d . APPENDIX 'B' BRITISH RAILWAYS INVESTMENT (Provisional EXPENDITURE Estimate) £m. . .4. SO '\ c \ * A A - 40 B 30 '1 B S y / S 20 IO 1956 1957 £90m. £120m. 1958 1959 I960 1961 1962 £14-Om. £I40m. Annual T o t a l s ( p r o v i s i o n a l e s t i m a t e s ) Key: £135m. £UOm. £135m. A F r e i g h t S e r v i c e s - Wagons, M a r s h a l l i n g Y a r d s , Goods Stations, etc, B P a s s e n g e r and P a r c e l s S e r v i c e s - Coaching v e h i c l e s ( i n c l u d i n g d i e s e l and e l e c t r i c m u l t i p l e u n i t s t o c k ) , Stations, etc. C P r o v i s i o n of E l e c t r i c and D i e s e l T r a c t i o n - Locomotives, E l e c t r i c a l Equipment of L i n e , e t c . D Notes: (1 ) (2) Track and S i g n a l l i n g Improvements. The f i g u r e s c h a r t e d above cover a l l e x p e n d i t u r e t o be i n c u r r e d on Investment ( i . e . g r o s s f i x e d c a p i t a l f o r m a t i o n as d e f i n e d f o r t h e purposes of t h e N a t i o n a l Income and Expenditure s t a t i s t i c s ) . The e s t i m a t e s assume no changes i n p r i c e l e v e l s . APPENDIX 'C WORK STUDY : SCHEMES UNDER CONSIDERATION Below a r e g i v e n d e t a i l s o f Work S t u d y s c h e m e s implemented or under i n v e s t i g a t i o n : ­ (1 ) SCHEMES IMPLEMENTED. C i v i l E n g i n e e r i n g Department . Parley District Bridge Repairs Darlington C e n t r a l R e c l a m a t i o n Depot Exmouth J u n c t i o n Concrete Depots, Hawick Lowestoft Newton H e a t h Taunton York We s t Ha r t 1 epo o l C r e o s o t e Depot Lenton M a t e r i a l s Depots Northampton New Works S e c t i o n P e r m a n e n t Way M a i n t e n a n c e Rubbish Tip S t a t i o n P a i n t i n g Gangs S w i t c h & C r o s s i n g Shops Workshops) Signal Engineering Waterloo Woking D i s t r i c t ( h Schemes) Brighton & Purley Districts ( o n e scheme i n e a c h ) Shewalton Southern Region Peterborough Angerstein Redbridge S t a n n i n g l e y & Low Moor Gateshead (Park Lane) Department S i g n a l Works Reading (.2) SCHEMES AUTHORISED BUT NOT YET FULLY IMPLEMENTED C i v i l Engineering Department E n g i n e e r i n g Depot West B a l i n g P r e - a s s e m b l y Depot Newlands Gas? W a t e r & M a i n t e n a n c e Southern Region Fitters Glasgow ( N o r t h ) D i s t r i c t P e r m a n e n t Way M a i n t e n a n c e ( P i l o t Scheme) S i g n a l E n g i n e e r i n g Department O u t s i d e m a i n t e n a n c e and Reading D i s t r i c t i n s t a l l a t i o n work York S & T Workshops ( 3 ) SCHEMES UNDER INVESTIGATION C i v i l Engineering Department . District Organisation Headquarters Offices Materials Depots' Rubbish Tip K i n g ' s Cross York Castleton Fazakerley Barlow P e r m a n e n t Way M a i n t e n a n c e Schemes Motherwell Mit cham New C r o s s G a t e Three Bridges Selected places in a l l Regions (Unloading Wagons) P o i n t & C r o s s i n g Shops & Depots ( Continued). .. (3) (Gontd. ) Workshops Workshops & P r o v i s i o n of F a c i l i t i e s for Stockyard Workshops O r g a n i s a t i o n . Signal Engineering Doncaster Norwich D i s t r i c t i n connection with Lowestoft Harbour Works M a i n t e n a n c e Department M a i n t e n a n c e & Renewal Office Organisation Mechanical Stratford Glasgow South Area R e a d i n g S i g n a l Works Work & Electrical Engineering Swindon Birmingham London, S.R. L o c o m o t i v e Main Works Outdoor Machinery Maintenance Outdoor Machinery Design and Specification Section Outdoor Machinery S e r v i c e s Technical & Administrative Offices M o t i v e Powex 1 M o t i v e Power Depot C M . & E. E. Rugby Doncaster Swindon Peterborough S p r i n g s Branch Department M a i n Works Outdoor Machinery S e r v i c e s Technical & Administrative Offices Wagon R e p a i r D e p o t s ) Swindon Rugby Swindon Peterborough Tyne Dock Simonside Department C a t a l o g u e s y s t e m of s t o r e s material O f f i c e s and S t o r e s Signal & Telegraph Stores Commercial Goods Department C a r r i a g e & Wagon Stores Department Region Department Depot Bi-Regional Operatinp; Eastern Swindon Reading Organisation Gloucester Oxford Birmingham District Department F r e i g h t T r a i n Working & Yard Shunting (investigation into p o s s i b i l i t y of i n t r o d u c i n g t r a i n and s h u n t i n g bonus scheme) Carriage Cleaning Accountant's Scottish Region Scottish Region Scottish Region Department Stores Accounting Marine Department Marine Workshops Newhaven Appendix D" FINANCIAL POSITION OF COMMISSION 1957/ 1970 (A) Yield of Modernisation Improvement in earnings before additional interest Net effect Additional interest (B) Yield of other measures, after deducting present rate of deficit