Synthesis Session
Opening Remarks and Summary of
Walter E. westman*
A b s t r a c t : I n t h e opening remarks by W. E. Westman, t h r e e maj o r q u e s t i o n s were r a i s e d : ( 1 ) How can r e s i l i e n c e of ecosystems t o a i r p o l l u t i o n damage be p r e d i c t e d ? Models c o n s t r u c t e d
from key physiognomic, p h y s i o l o g i c a l o r l i f e - h i s t o r y a t t r i b u t e s
of dominants w i t h i n a community c o u l d form t h e b a s i s Of a n a u t e c o l o g i c a l approach. Using a s y n e c o l o g i c a l approach, a t l e a s t
f o u r d i s t i n c t components can be recognized ( e l a s t i c i t y , amplit u d e , h y s t e r e s i s , m a l l e a b i l i t y ) which r e f l e c t d i f f e r e n t a s p e c t s
of t h e r e c o v e r y p r o c e s s . These could be measured i n t h e f i e l d
o r d e r i v e d from modeling, u s i n g such community-level a t t r i b u t e s a s components of d i v e r s i t y , f o l i a r c o v e r , and s i m i l a r ( 2 ) What i n d i c a t o r s of e f f e c t s of a i r
i t i e s i n composition.
p o l l u t i o n on ecosystem n u t r i e n t c y c l i n g a r e most r e l i a b l e ?
Observing changes i n t h e m i n e r a l composition of f r e s h l i t t e r f a l l d u r i n g peak l i t t e r f a l l p e r i o d s may be p r e f e r a b l e t o meas u r i n g f o l i a r n u t r i e n t c o n c e n t r a t i o n s i n r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l samp l e s of f o r e s t s p e c i e s . ( 3 ) What i s t h e r o l e of c u l t u r a l v a l u e s
i n a i r p o l l u t i o n r e s e a r c h ? What a r e t h e s o c i a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s
of s c i e n t i s t s , and how c a n t h e y be d i s c h a r g e d ? Examples were
g i v e n of t h e r o l e of c u l t u r a l v a l u e s and p e r c e p t i o n s i n t h e cond u c t of a i r p o l l u t i o n r e s e a r c h and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of i t s r e s u l t s . S c i e n t i s t s may a s s i s t decision-makers i n i n t e r p r e t i n g
t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e of r e s u l t s of a i r p o l l u t i o n e f f e c t s on f o r e s t s
by i l l u s t r a t i n g t h e e x t e r n a l c o s t s g e n e r a t e d i n t h e economy by
l o s s of ecosystem f u n c t i o n s , a s w e l l a s s t r u c t u r e , due t o a i r
p o l l u t i o n damage. I n t h e open d i s c u s s i o n t h a t f o l l o w e d , p a r t i c i p a n t s d i s c u s s e d t h e u s e of a i r p o l l u t i o n s i m u l a t i o n models
i n making d e c i s i o n s a b o u t land use. Modelers i n d i c a t e d t h a t r e p a r a m e t e r i z a t i o n of e x i s t i n g v e g e t a t i o n models t o l o c a l c o n d i t i o n s c o u l d p r o v i d e a n e f f i c i e n t means of a p p l y i n g e x i s t i n g mod e l s t o l o c a l s i t i n g d e c i s i o n s . F i e l d b i o l o g i s t s and managers
e x p r e s s e d some r e s e r v a t i o n s a b o u t t h e l e v e l of p r e c i s i o n t o be
achieved from such a procedure.
Some a t t r i b u t e s of t h e f o r e s t
ecosystem which a r e most i n d i c a t i v e of p o l l u t i o n s t r e s s , and
hence most u s e f u l l y i n c o r p o r a t e d i n such models, were d e t a i l e d ,
i n c l u d i n g physiognomic a t t r i b u t e s , v i s i b l e f o l i a r i n j u r y symptoms, wood growth r a t e s and l i c h e n composition. A t l e a s t n i n e
a r e a s i n which r e s e a r c h i s needed on t h e e f f e c t s of a i r p o l l u t a n t s on f o r e s t s were s u g g e s t e d .
p r e s e n t e d a t t h e Symposium on E f f e c t s of A i r
P o l l u t a n t s on M e d i t e r r a n e a n and Temperate F o r e s t
Ecosystems, J u n e 22-27, 1980, R i v e r s i d e ,
C a l i f o r n i a , U.S.A.
^ ~ s s o c i a t eP r o f e s s o r of Geography, U n i v e r s i t y
of C a l i f o r n i a , Los Angeles, C a l i f o r n i a
OPENING REMARKS
The purpose of t h i s f i n a l d i s c u s s i o n s e s s i o n
i s t o i d e n t i f y ecosystem-level c o n c e p t s p e r t i n e n t t o t h e s t u d y of a i r p o l l u t a n t e f f e c t s of
f o r e s t s , and t o p r o v i d e a n o p p o r t u n i t y f o r d i s c u s s i o n between p a r t i c i p a n t s a t t h e Symposium
r e g a r d i n g key q u e s t i o n s a r i s i n g from t h e Symposium proceedings. To a s s i s t i n t h i s e f f o r t ,
Symposium s e s s i o n chairmen ( P a t r i c k Coyne, J o e
McBride, Samuel McLaughlin, J r . , Joseph Shinn,
William H. Smith, and David Tingey) w i l l s e r v e
a s a panel t o f i e l d d i s c u s s i o n q u e s t i o n s from
t h e audience. I have been asked t o open t h e
s e s s i o n w i t h some "provocative" q u e s t i o n s r e g a r d i n g ecosystem-level s t u d i e s of a i r p o l l u t i o n
e f f e c t s , a r i s i n g from t h e Symposium p r e s e n t a t i o n s and f i e l d t r i p s of t h e l a s t f o u r days. I
cannot g u a r a n t e e t h a t a n y t h i n g more t h a n my
g a r i s h r e d t i e w i l l be p r o v o c a t i v e , but I would
l i k e t o pose t h r e e q u e s t i o n s f o r your c o n s i d e r ation.
HOW CAN RESILIENCE O F ECOSYSTEMS TO A I R
POLLUTION DAMAGE BE PREDICTED?
The term " r e s i l i e n c e " h a s been used t o r e f e r
t o t h e degree, manner and pace of r e s t o r a t i o n
of i n i t i a l s t r u c t u r e and f u n c t i o n i n a n ecosystem a f t e r d i s t u r b a n c e (Westman, 1978). Most
of t h e papers i n t h i s Symposium have d i s c u s s e d
n o t r e s i l i e n c e , b u t what h a s been termed ecosystem " i n e r t i a " (Orians, 1975; Westman, 1978).
' I n e r t i a " i s t h e a b i l i t y of a n ecosystem t o r e s i s t displacement i n s t r u c t u r e o r f u n c t i o n when
s u b j e c t e d t o a d i s t u r b i n g f o r c e . I n t h e c a s e of
a i r p o l l u t i o n , i n e r t i a can be measured by d e t e r mining t h e minimum c o n c e n t r a t i o n of a p o l l u t a n t
a t which impact t o a n ecosystem o c c u r s . We have
c o n s i d e r a b l e information on t h e l e v e l s of c h r o n i c
or acute a i r pollution t h a t w i l l i n i t i a t e injury t o i n d i v i d u a l s p e c i e s , and a l e s s ample
body of evidence r e g a r d i n g t h e l e v e l s of poll u t a n t s n e c e s s a r y t o i n i t i a t e community-level
changes.
Ecosystem models, once e f f e c t i v e l y v a l i d a t e d ,
can p o t e n t i a l l y s e r v e a s t o o l s f o r t h e p r e d i c t i o n of r e s i l i e n c e .
Since it is impractical t o
model a l l f e a t u r e s of a n ecosystem, however, mode l e r s need t o know which a t t r i b u t e s of a s p e c i e s
make t h e organism most v u l n e r a b l e t o p o l l u t i o n
i n j u r y . Thus, t o be of maximum a s s i s t a n c e t o
modelers, e x p e r i m e n t a l i s t s need t o determine
which physiognomic a n d / o r p h y s i o l o g i c a l a t t r i b u t e s of a s p e c i e s ( o r s p e c i e s a s s o c i a t i o n ) a r e
most u s e f u l i n d i c a t o r s of t h e i n e r t i a and r e s i l i e n c e of s p e c i e s . Noble and S l a t y e r (1976)
and Grime (1979) have made p r o g r e s s r e c e n t l y
i n i d e n t i f y i n g a t t r i b u t e s of s p e c i e s which may
be u s e f u l i n p r e d i c t i n g t h e i r a b i l i t y t o r e c o l o n i z e burned o r c l e a r e d s i t e s .
We might be a b l e t o speed t h e b u i l d i n g of
e f f i c i e n t models of a i r p o l l u t i o n e f f e c t s on
ecosystems by examining s p e c i e s f o r t h o s e a t t r i b u t e s which a r e most v u l n e r a b l e t o p o l l u t i o n
damage, o r which enhance recovery f o l l o w i n g damage. During t h i s symposium, we heard t h a t lichens and mosses tend t o be more v u l n e r a b l e
t o a i r p o l l u t a n t s because of t h e i r l a c k of waxy
c u t i c l e s . Beyond t h i s , it would be u s e f u l t o
know more a b o u t t h e r e l a t i v e e f f e c t s of such
l e a f a t t r i b u t e s a s mesophylly, s c l e r o p h y l l y
and succulence i n p r o v i d i n g r e s i s t a n c e t o ab-
s o r p t i o n of p o l l u t a n t s . What i s t h e p r e d i c t i v e
v a l u e of phenological a t t r i b u t e s , such a s evergreenness vs. deciduousness, o r l i f e - c y c l e
a t t r i b u t e s such a s annual vs. p e r e n n i a l r e p r o d u c t i v e c y c l e s ? What a r e t h e e f f e c t s of crowns p r o u t i n g a b i l i t y , o r l a c k t h e r e o f , on ecosystem recovery following a i r p o l l u t i o n damage?
These q u e s t i o n s form p a r t of what might be
c a l l e d the"autecologica1 approach" t o ecosystem r e s i l i e n c e , s i n c e they f o c u s on s p e c i e s
a t t r i b u t e s which, when i n c o r p o r a t e d i n a n ecosystem model, can be used t o s y n t h e s i z e key
p r o p e r t i e s of ecosystems.
It i s p o s s i b l e , however, t h a t p r o g r e s s may
be made more q u i c k l y by a t t e m p t i n g g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s of ecosystem r e s i l i e n c e by s t u d y i n g community-level processes of recovery i n p a r t i c u l a r biomes. I n o r d e r t o o r g a n i z e a s t u d y of
community-level response t o d i s t u r b a n c e it i s
u s e f u l t o recognize a t l e a s t f o u r d i s t i n c t
components of r e s i l i e n c e (Westman, 1978) :
The r a p i d i t y of r e s t o r a t i o n of a s t a b l e s t a t e
following d i s t u r b a n c e . To u s e t h e analogy of
a m e t a l c o i l , e l a s t i c i t y of t h e c o i l i s t h e
time r e q u i r e d t o s p r i n g back t o i n i t i a l s i z e
a f t e r stretching a c e r t a i n distance.
Amplitude
The zone from which t h e ecosystem w i l l r e t u r n t o a s t a b l e s t a t e . By analogy, amplitude
i s t h e d i s t a n c e beyond which a c o i l cannot be
s t r e t c h e d w i t h o u t being permanently deformed.
Hysteresis
The degree t o which t h e p a t h of r e s t o r a t i o n ( s u c c e s s i o n ) i s a n e x a c t r e v e r s a l of t h e
p a t h of d e g r a d a t i o n ( r e t r o g r e s s i o n ) . By analogy, h y s t e r e s i s i s t h e degree t o which t h e
r e g i o n t e m p o r a r i l y occupied by a c o i l i n
s p r i n g i n g back d i f f e r s from t h e r e g i o n through
which t h e c o i l moved when i n i t i a l l y s t r e t c h e d .
Malleability
The d e g r e e t o which t h e s t a b l e s t a t e e s t a b l i s h e d a f t e r d i s t u r b a n c e d i f f e r s from t h e
o r i g i n a l steady s t a t e . Similarly, malleabili t y i s t h e degree t o which a s t r e t c h e d c o i l
remains s t r e t c h e d a f t e r t h e deforming f o r c e i s
removed.
These components of r e s i l i e n c e a r e s u b j e c t
t o measurement (Westman, 1978). I n t h e c a s e of
t h e s t u d y of o x i d a n t e f f e c t s on p i n e s i n t h e
San Bernardino Mountains, i n e r t i a was d e t e r mined by observing t h e l e v e l s of o x i d a n t s a t
which damage t o p i n e s f i r s t appeared. Ampl i t u d e might be e s t a b l i s h e d by i d e n t i f y i n g t h e
sample p l o t s , among t h e s e v e r a l used, a t which
p i n e s a r e no longer r e p l a c i n g themselves ( i f
t h e s e a r e taken t o be climax s p e c i e s f o r t h e
r e g i o n ) , and determining t h e lowest mean and
peak concentrations of oxidants a t which t h i s
threshhold e f f e c t i s observed. E l a s t i c i t y could
be measured a s t h e time necessary f o r recovery
of such a s i t e once p o l l u t a n t s t r e s s i s r e moved. M a l l e a b i l i t y could be measured, using
a percentage s i m i l a r i t y index, by comparing t h e
community composition of t h e new steady s t a t e
which was e s t a b l i s h e d following p o l l u t i o n
s t r e s s t o t h e p r e - s t r e s s composition. I n examining h y s t e r e s i s , one would a s k whether t h e
f i r s t s p e c i e s t o disappear from t h e ecosystem
were t h e l a s t t o r e t u r n , using, f o r example, a
rank c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t .
It i s obvious t h a t i n many s i t u a t i o n s r e covery cannot be observed because t h e chronic
s t r e s s continues ( a s i s t h e c a s e i n t h e San
Bernardino Mountains). F u r t h e r , t h e p o s t - s t r e s s
recovery period may be on t h e order of centuri e s , i n which c a s e ecosystem models using a u t e c o l o g i c a l approaches must be r e l i e d upon f o r
quicker p r e d i c t i o n s .
Nevertheless, t h e r e a r e
s i t u a t i o n s i n which a p o l l u t i n g source has been
removed o r reduced, and recovery can be observed. I n t h e s e s i t u a t i o n s , compilation of t h e
components of r e s i l i e n c e f o r a p a r t i c u l a r p l a n t
formation may a i d us i n g e n e r a l i z i n g about t h e
impact of new p o l l u t i o n sources on a s y e t unimpacted a r e a s of v e g e t a t i o n of s i m i l a r type.
Thus i n considering t h e p r e d i c t i o n of ecosystem r e s i l i e n c e , we may be wise t o focus both
on s e n s i t i v e a t t r i b u t e s of i n d i v i d u a l s p e c i e s
o r s p e c i e s a s s o c i a t i o n s , and of community-level
changes i n s p e c i e s r i c h n e s s , -composition, fol i a r cover, e t c . which can form t h e bases f o r
observing community-level components of r e s i l ience.
WHAT INDICATORS OF EFFECTS OF A I R POLLUTION ON
ECOSYSTEM NUTRIENT CYCLING ARE MOST RELIABLE?
The n u t r i e n t budget of an e n t i r e ecosystem
r e p r e s e n t s one ecosystem l e v e l a t t r i b u t e t h a t
can r e v e a l much about growth-potential and funct i o n i n g a t t h e supraorganismal l e v e l . Determining t h e n u t r i e n t budget f o r even a small port i o n of t h e landscape, however, i s a very c o s t l y and time-consuming process. Hence some
speakers (Bruce Wiersma and K. W. Brown, Allen
Legge) described a t t e m p t s t o determine e f f e c t s
of a i r p o l l u t a n t s on n u t r i e n t c y c l i n g by measurement of c o n c e n t r a t i o n s of mineral elements
i n f o l i a g e , a s p o s s i b l e b i o i n d i c a t o r s of pollution-induced ecosystem-level damage. Paul
Zinke described some of t h e many ecosystem compartments which must be considered i n concept u a l i z i n g ecosystem n u t r i e n t c y c l i n g .
I would l i k e t o i s s u e a c a u t i o n a g a i n s t t h e
use of f o l i a r n u t r i e n t c o n c e n t r a t i o n s , i n t h e
absence of considerable c o n t e x t , f o r t h e study
of p o l l u t i o n s t r e s s . S o i l s c i e n t i s t s have long
recognized t h a t f o l i a r n u t r i e n t concentrations
a r e dependent on s o i l n u t r i e n t concentrations,
and have used t h e f o l i a g e a n a l y s e s a s i n d i c a t o r s
of "available" concentrations of t h e elements
i n t h e s o i l i n a number of instances. Thus i t
becomes very important f o r t h e a i r p o l l u t i o n
researcher t o characterize s o i l heterogeneities
i n h i s o r h e r study. Secondly, e c o l o g i s t s know
t h a t f o l i a r n u t r i e n t concentrations vary tempo r a l l y a s t h e l e a f passes from e a r l y growth
s t a g e s t o senescence and l e a f f a l l . The changes
a r e due t o t h e change i n t i s s u e and c e l l u l a r
component r a t i o s with age, t o t h e changing r a t i o of photosynthate t o mineral elements, and
t o withdrawal of more mobile n u t r i e n t s i n t o
stems before l e a f f a l l . Thus t h e h a r v e s t of
leaves a t d i f f e r e n t times of year makes nut r i e n t analyses of these leaves i n a p p r o p r i a t e
f o r use a s samples from a s i n g l e population.
Furthermore, species d i f f e r i n t h e i r a b i l i t i e s
t o a s s i m i l a t e , r e t a i n o r accumulate t o luxury
l e v e l s , p a r t i c u l a r mineral elements. The a b i l i t y of some s p e c i e s t o accumulate c e r t a i n heavy
metals, f o r example, i s t h e b a s i s f o r biogeochemical prospecting. Luxury accumulation of
potassium by many s p e c i e s i s w e l l known. Calcium, being immobile, tends t o i n c r e a s e i n conc e n t r a t i o n i n leaves with age, but t h e i n i t i a l
a b i l i t y t o a s s i m i l a t e calcium d i f f e r s from spec i e s t o s p e c i e s . Thus t h e a n a l y s i s of f o l i a r
n u t r i e n t concentrations without regard t o s p e c i e s
o r ecotype i s t o be avoided.
The m u l t i p l e axes of v a r i a t i o n presented by.
d i f f e r e n c e s i n s p e c i e s , mineral p r o p e r t i e s , time
of year and s o i l concentrations implies t h a t a
much more massive sampling program must be undertaken t o observe meaningful t r e n d s from f o l i a r
analyses than has c h a r a c t e r i z e d some of t h e a i r
p o l l u t i o n s t u d i e s reported.
Short of a f u l l n u t r i e n t budget a n a l y s i s ,
changes i n t h e mineral composition of f r e s h
l i t t e r f a l l during peak l i t t e r f a l l periods may
provide a more s u i t a b l e i n d i c a t o r of n u t r i e n t
changes due t o p o l l u t i o n s t r e s s , a s t h i s component is standardized i n time, and weighted t o
t h e f o l i a r biomass composition of t h e f o r e s t .
Even s o , l a r g e sample-sizes a r e needed, and
much c a u t i o n i n e x t r a p o l a t i o n of r e s u l t s w i l l
s t i l l be necessary.
WHAT IS THE ROLE OF CULTURAL VALUES I N
A I R POLLUTION RESEARCH?
WHAT ARE THE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITIES OF
SCIENTISTS, AND HOW CAM THEY BE DISCHARGED?
As n a t u r a l s c i e n t i s t s , we tend t o r e l e g a t e
t h e s o c i a l context of our research t o o t h e r
segments of society. We do s o a t r i s k , however,
because t h e r e a r e both s o c i a l i s s u e s upon which
we a r e most q u a l i f i e d t o comment, and sociop o l i t i c a l f o r c e s which a f f e c t t h e choice and
conduct of our r e s e a r c h problems. I n t h e course
of t h e present Symposium, I was amused t o note
t h e v a r i a t i o n i n perception of t h e a i r q u a l i t y
i n Riverside during t h e period, by v a r i o u s p a r t i c i p a n t s . Some thought t h e smog l i g h t , o t h e r s
oppressively heavy. The smog c o n c e n t r a t i o n was
a constant; c u l t u r a l values were a t work i n
influencing perceptions. As a second example,
some speakers emphasized t h e r o l e of a c i d r a i n
a s a f e r t i l i z e r , w h i l e o t h e r s emphasized i t s
toxic properties.
Of c o u r s e , whether any pollutant w i l l exercise its toxic properties w i l l
depend upon r a t e and d u r a t i o n of a p p l i c a t i o n ,
and c o n c e n t r a t i o n , a s w e l l a s upon t h e physiol o g i c a l s t a t e of t h e r e c e p t o r organism and i t s
ecosystem. I n t h e c a s e of c h a r a c t e r i z i n g t h e
p r o p e r t i e s of a c i d r a i n , however, t h e a t t r i b u t e s
chosen f o r emphasis were chosen f o r r e a s o n s
having t o do w i t h t h e c u l t u r a l a t t i t u d e s and
v a l u e s of t h e s p e a k e r s , and n o t because of d i s agreement over e m p i r i c a l o b s e r v a t i o n s . A s a
t h i r d example, we heard from one F o r e s t S e r v i c e
representative during the f i e l d t r i p t h a t the
damaged p o r t i o n s of t h e San Bernardino National
F o r e s t were n o t e x p e r i e n c i n g d i f f i c u l t y i n r e p r o d u c t i o n . But, t h e E.P.A. sponsored, Unive r s i t y of C a l i f o r n i a - F o r e s t S e r v i c e r e s e a r c h
team provided evidence t o t h e c o n t r a r y . Were
t h e s e two p a r t i e s d i s a g r e e i n g over e m p i r i c a l
o b s e r v a t i o n s , o r was t h e i r d i f f e r e n c e one of
c u l t u r a l v a l u e s and p e r c e p t i o n s a p p l i e d i n e v a l u a t i n g t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e of t h e same body of
d a t a ? A s a f o u r t h example, r e c a l l t h a t about
50% of t h e a d u l t American p o p u l a t i o n smokes,
thereby b r i n g i n g i n t o t h e i r lungs s e v e r a l times
t h e ambient l e v e l s of p a r t i c u l a t e s and t o x i c
gases p r e s e n t i n p o l l u t e d urban a i r . W i l l
t h e s e people p e r c e i v e t h e human h e a l t h hazards
of outdoor a i r i n t h e same way a s nonsmokers?
W i l l they a s s i g n t h e same weights t o t h e i r importance?
A t t h e very l e a s t , s c i e n t i s t s have a r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e c l e a r l y between
e m p i r i c a l o b s e r v a t i o n s and normative ( v a l u e )
judgments.
But does our r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o
decision-makers and t h e p u b l i c s t o p t h e r e ?
Much h a s been s a i d r e g a r d i n g t h e a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of s c i e n t i s t s i n o f f e r i n g v a l u e judgments
t o s o c i e t y , and I w i l l n o t e n t e r t h e d e b a t e
h e r e . I would, however, l i k e t o s u g g e s t a way
i n which s c i e n t i s t s can h e l p t o c l a r i f y i n
s o c i a l l y - m e a n i n g f u l terms t h e s o c i a l c o s t s .of
a i r p o l l u t i o n damage.
I b e l i e v e decision-makers would prof it from
a f u l l e r understanding of t h e e f f e c t s of a i r
p o l l u t i o n n o t only on t h e marketable a s p e c t s
of ecosystem s t r u c t u r e ( s t a n d i n g timber, c r o p
y i e l d , t o u r i s t r e v e n u e ) , b u t a l s o on t h o s e a s p e c t s of ecosystem f u n c t i o n i n g which c r e a t e h i d den c o s t s i n t h e market p l a c e . To t a k e a n example from t h e San Bernardino N a t i o n a l F o r e s t
o x i d a n t s t u d y which I have p r e v i o u s l y d i s c u s s e d
(Westman, 1977), c o n s i d e r t h e d o l l a r c o s t s t o
s o c i e t y of t h e l o s s of t h e s o i l binding f u n c t i o n
from a i r p o l l u t i o n damage t o p i n e s i n t h i s f o r e s t . A s of 1972, 57% of t h e t r e e s over a 4000
h e c t a r e a r e a w i l l be r e p l a c e d by a r e t r o g r e s s i v e v e g e t a t i o n of f o r b s and g r a s s e s , and t h a t
e r o s i o n l o s s e s from t h e l a t t e r w i l l i n c r e a s e
i n t h e p r o p o r t i o n observed when c h a p a r r a l was
converted t o g r a s s l a n d by t h e U.S. F o r e s t Serv i c e a t San Dimas i n t h e neighboring San G a b r i e l
Mountains, it is p o s s i b l e t o e s t i m a t e e r o s i o n
l o s s e s from t h e s t r e s s e d f o r e s t . A t c u r r e n t
r a t e s of cleanup of sediment from s t r e e t s , sew-
e r s and d e b r i s b a s i n s , t h e c o s t of damage from
l o s s of t h e s o i l binding f u n c t i o n of t h e San
Bernardino Mountain p i n e s is $27 m i l l i o n p e r
y e a r . These c o s t s a r e being absorbed c u r r e n t l y
by t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c n o t only a s d i r e c t t a x
c o l l e c t i o n t o l o c a l governments c l e a n i n g up
t h e sediment, a s only a p o r t i o n of t h e sediment
i s being recovered i n t h i s way. The c o s t s a r e
being absorbed a l s o i n terms of l o s s e s t o f i s h e r i e s i n c o a s t a l w a t e r s where spawning a r e a s
a r e smothered by sediments, by p u b l i c works
a l l o c a t i o n s f o r new dams, by flood damage f o l lowing storms i n s i l t e d f l o o d channels. Rarely
i f ever a r e t h e s e c o s t s a t t r i b u t e d t o smog and
considered i n t h e c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s of prop o s a l s t o i n s t a l l emission c o n t r o l d e v i c e s .
F u r t h e r , s o i l binding i s only one of t h e funct i o n s destroyed through d e a t h of t h e p i n e s . Loss
of t h e f u n c t i o n s of n u t r i e n t c a p t u r e and r e tention, pollution absorption, c l i m a t i c regu l a t i o n and energy f i x a t i o n a l l have t h e i r soc i a l c o s t s , c a p a b l e of a t l e a s t p a r t i a l enumera t i o n and e v a l u a t i o n (Westman, 1978).
Complex a s t h i s process of s o c i a l c o s t i d e n t i f i c a t i o n is, I suggest t h a t i t i s a t o p i c i n
which s c i e n t i s t s can p l a y a l a r g e r r o l e t h a n we
have t o d a t e , and a t o p i c t o which, i t may be
argued, we have a r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o contribute-.
SUMMARY OF AUDIENCE PANEL DISCUSSION
Use of a i r p o l l u t i o n s i m u l a t i o n models
i n d e c i s ion-making
Discussion ensued on t h e c u r r e n t a p p l i c a b i l i t y of computer models t o such immediate quest i o n s a s how t o s i t e power p l a n t s t o minimize
damage t o v e g e t a t i o n .
Those w i t h experience
i n b u i l d i n g models expressed c o n s i d e r a b l e conf i d e n c e t h a t t h e s e could be used, upon r e p a r a m e t e r i z a t i o n , t o h e l p r e s o l v e such q u e s t i o n s
i n a number of p a r t s o f t h e country. Experimental b i o l o g i s t s and land managers expressed
concern t h a t t h e models were s t i l l t o o broadly
conceived t o provide a c c u r a t e e s t i m a t e s of d i f f e r e n c e s between s i t e s i n a s i n g l e v e g e t a t i o n
type. A number of t h e s p e c i f i c i s s u e s t h a t were
broached a s p a r t of t h i s d i s c u s s i o n a r e a s f o l lows :
T r a n s f e r a b i l i t y of models between v e g e t a t i o n
types
What l e v e l of r e s o l u t i o n of a model i s needed
i n o r d e r t o provide a c c u r a t e p r e d i c t i o n s of
p o l l u t i o n e f f e c t s on v e g e t a t i o n , of u s e t o
land managers? Are s i n g l e g e n e r a l models f o r
each biome s u f f i c i e n t , o r do we need a model f o r
each of 400 o r 500 American v e g e t a t i o n t y p e s ?
How should a model be c o n s t r u c t e d t o maximize
i t s t r a n s f e r a b i l i t y between r e g i o n s ? S e v e r a l
suggested responses were o f f e r e d :
-1. The work of e c o l o g i s t s , a i r p o l l u t i o n
r e s e a r c h s c i e n t i s t s and modelers could be
c o o r d i n a t e d i n a nationwide r e s e a r c h l a b o r a t o r y
consortium t o c o n s t r u c t working models of a i r
p o l l u t i o n e f f e c t s on v e g e t a t i o n f o r t h e major
r e g i o n a l p l a n t formations. Land managers concerned w i t h p a r t i c u l a r s i t i n g o r f o r e s t r y quest i o n s i n a r e g i o n of t h e c o u n t r y could submit
a r e q u e s t t o t h e consortium f o r a d a p t a t i o n of a
r e g i o n a l model t o h i s o r h e r p a r t i c u l a r problem. One advantage of t h i s approach i s t h a t
b i o l o g i s t s and modelers who a r e most f a m i l i a r
w i t h t h e assumptions i n t h e model would be
a v a i l a b l e t o o p e r a t e t h e model. R e p e t i t i o u s
r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s could be avoided, and experi e n c e accumulated from v a r i o u s r e g i o n a l e f f o r t s .
2 . Models which i n c o r p o r a t e t h e m e c h a n i s t i c
b a s i s f o r a i r p o l l u t i o n e f f e c t s on v e g e t a t i o n
may be most e a s i l y adapted t o new v e g e t a t i o n
t y p e s w i t h accuracy. "Mechanistic" bases may
c o n s i s t of p h y s i o l o g i c a l models of t h e e f f e c t s
of p o l l u t a n t s , temperature and m o i s t u r e on
n u t r i e n t a s s i m i l a t i o n and p h o t o s y n t h e s i s , o r
t h e y may c o n s i s t of ecosystem-level models i n
which s e n s i t i v e a t t r i b u t e s of t h e ecosystem
( l i t t e r f a l l , evergreenness vs. deciduousness,
s p e c i e s l o n g e v i t y ) a r e modeled.
3 . The N a t i o n a l Power P l a n t Team of t h e United
S t a t e s F i s h and W i l d l i f e S e r v i c e h a s a v a i l a b l e
a power p l a n t s i t i n g model which, although cons i d e r i n g v a r i o u s c o n s t r a i n t s , does n o t i n c o r p o r a t e a model of a i r p o l l u t i o n e f f e c t s on veget a t i o n i n d e t a i l . They have r e c e n t l y o b t a i n e d ,
however, a copy of Kercher's (Lawrence Livermore Laboratory) f o r e s t growth model, and p l a n
t o make t h i s a v a i l a b l e f o r p u b l i c use, and perhaps u l t i m a t e l y l i n k i t t o t h e i r e x i s t i n g s i t i n g
model.
4. A f o r e s t growth model f o r a p a r t i c u l a r veg e t a t i o n t y p e a p p e a r s t o r e q u i r e 1 - 2 persony e a r s of e f f o r t t o c o n s t r u c t from s c r a t c h . Rep a r a m e t e r i z a t i o n of a n e x i s t i n g model i s r e garded a s a l e s s c o s t l y and time-consuming way
t o provide a model f o r a new v e g e t a t i o n type.
An important l i m i t i n g f a c t o r t o t h i s e f f o r t
i s t h e p a u c i t y of f i e l d and l a b o r a t o r y fumig a t i o n d a t a on e f f e c t s of a i r p o l l u t a n t s , a l o n e
and i n combination, on s p e c i e s , e s p e c i a l l y over
extended p e r i o d s .
I n t h e absence of such f i e l d
d a t a , s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s of t h e computer
model may be used t o e s t a b l i s h t h e l i k e l y components of t h e ecosystem which w i l l be most
a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t e d by a p a r t i c u l a r s t r e s s , and
t o produce q u a l i t a t i v e s c e n a r i o s of worst c a s e
events.
5. E x i s t i n g models f o r many v e g e t a t i o n t y p e s
do n o t i n c o r p o r a t e long-term c y c l i c a l e v e n t s
such a s f i r e s , seed c y c l e s , e t c . However, mod e l s such a s t h o s e of Kercher do i n c o r p o r a t e
t h e s e e f f e c t s . The f o r e s t growth model a v a i l a b l e through Oak Ridge N a t i o n a l Laboratory i s
c o n s i d e r e d c a p a b l e of a p p l i c a t i o n t o a l l e a s t e r n
U. S. f o r e s t t y p e s except Southern p i n e f o r e s t s .
Ecosystem-level i n d i c a t o r s of p o l l u t i o n s t r e s s
What a t t r i b u t e s of s p e c i e s o r of ecosystems
can be used by f i e l d e c o l o g i s t s and modelers
a s s e n s i t i v e i n d i c a t o r s of l i k e l y p o l l u t i o n induced changes?
1. Physiognomic a t t r i b u t e s ( l e a f c u t i c l e t h i c k n e s s and c h e m i s t r y ) , phenologic a t t r i b u t e s
(age t o r e p r o d u c t i o n , d u r a t i o n of f o l i a g e ) ,
and l i f e h i s r o r y a t t r i b u t e s (annual vs. p e r e n n i a l n a t u r e , l o n g e v i t y of g e n e r a t i o n s ) a r e
s e e n a s community-level i n d i c a t o r s . L i t t e r f a l l may be a u s e f u l i n d i c a t o r of n u t r i e n t
budget processes.
2. Growth r i n g s (dendrochronology) may be
used a s a long-term r e c o r d of f o r e s t growth
responses. I n Pennsylvania, f o r example, t r e e
r i n g a n a l y s i s i n f o r e s t i n t h e v i c i n i t y of powe r p l a n t s has been conducted.
3 . V i s i b l e i n j u r y symptoms, such a s t h e f o l i a r
i n j u r y index used by P a u l M i l l e r and co-worke r s , may be u s e f u l . The Tennessee Valley Autho r i t y h a s recorded v i s u a l i n j u r y symptoms on
t r e e s surrounding a number of i t s power p l a n t s .
4.
The use of p a r t i c u l a r l y s e n s i t i v e s p e c i e s ,
such a s l i c h e n s , was i l l u s t r a t e d e a r l i e r i n
t h e Symposium.
Use of models i n s e t t i n g a i r p o l l u t i o n s t a n d a r d s
Can a i r p o l l u t i o n models be used by agenc i e s concerned w i t h e s t a b l i s h i n g minimum conc e n t r a t i o n s of ambient exposure t h a t w i l l c a u s e
damage t o v e g e t a t i o n ?
1. To t h e e x t e n t t h a t s t a n d a r d s i n c o r p o r a t e
s o c i a l values a s well a s s c i e n t i f i c c r i t e r i a ,
a computer model of t h e type being d i s c u s s e d
cannot be used t o s e t a s t a n d a r d .
2. On t h e o t h e r hand, computer models have
been used t o determine l e v e l s of f o r e s t growth
r e d u c t i o n from p a r t i c u l a r l e v e l s of p o l l u t a n t s .
This information a l o n e , o r converted t o economi c l o s s f i g u r e s , can be u s e f u l a s i n f o r m a t i o n
f o r c r i t e r i a documents used i n s t a n d a r d s e t t i n g .
3 . Models have been used t o c a l c u l a t e r a d i a t i o n dose t o people i n t h e v i c i n i t y of
n u c l e a r power p l a n t s . The I n d i a n P o i n t power
p l a n t was modified t o reduce damage of e f f l u e n t t o f i s h l i f e , based on information o b t a i n ed through a computer model.
4.
Models of f o r e s t growth have i l l u s t r a t e d
t h a t even a 5-10% decrement i n t r e e growth
due t o a i r p o l l u t i o n can have s e v e r e longterm e f f e c t s on f o r e s t growth and composition.
This is a p r e d i c t i o n t h a t would have been d i f f i c u l t t o make w i t h p r e c i s i o n i n t h e absence
of a computer model.
A Research Agenda
During t h e course of t h e s y n t h e s i s s e s s i o n
s e v e r a l suggestions were made regarding a r e a s
i n which important information i s p a r t i c u l a r l y
lacking. These r e s e a r c h t o p i c s a r e l i s t e d below.
P a t t e r n s of Recovery i n Stressed Vegetation-While many ecosystem s t u d i e s have documented
t h e ' i n e r t i a ' of t h e systems, fewer have observed t h e recovery process. The emission
source a t T r a i l , B r i t i s h Columbia, i s an example of a p o i n t source whose emissions decreased d r a m a t i c a l l y i n t h e l a t e 1930's.
S t u d i e s of subsequent recovery of damaged veg e t a t i o n could t e l l us much about r e s i l i e n c e
of t h a t f o r e s t ecosystem.
P r e c i p i t a t i o n Chemistry--Much needs t o be
known about t h e chemical transformations i n
r a i n and snow a s they pass over t h e s u r f a c e s
of v e g e t a t i o n and s o i l , and how t h e s e i n t u r n
a f f e c t t h e f l u x of n u t r i e n t s i n t h e ecosystem.
Mechanistic Models For P a r t i c u l a t e ( i n cluding heavy m e t a l ) Pollutants--Models f o r
t h e i n j u r y t o p l a n t s from t o x i c gases a r e more
advanced than those f o r p a r t i c u l a t e s . How
do p a r t i c u l a t e s e n t e r p l a n t s and a t what r a t e s ?
How a r e t h e i r e f f e c t s r e g i s t e r e d ? How can
they be modeled?
Synergisms--Much i s unknown about t h e i n t e r a c t i v e e f f e c t s of s e v e r a l a i r p o l l u t a n t s
on i n d i v i d u a l s p e c i e s and on ecosystems. Fumigation s t u d i e s should i n c o r p o r a t e p o l l u t a n t
combinations a s w e l l a s t e s t
the effects
of s i n g l e p o l l u t a n t s .
Long-term E f f e c t s of P o l l u t a n t Exposure-There i s a need f o r l a b o r a t o r y s t u d i e s of
long-term exposures ( g r e a t e r than one month)
of a i r p o l l u t a n t s t o species. I n t h e f i e l d ,
exposures t o f o r e s t s p e c i e s occur over many
y e a r s . It i s d i f f i c u l t t o understand longterm e f f e c t s on reproduction and growth i n
t h e absence of chronic exposure s t u d i e s .
Monitoring Data For Ambient P o l l u t a n t Concentrations--More of t h e s e d a t a a r e needed
f o r a l l p a r t s of t h e United S t a t e s i f use
of computer models with r e a l i s t i c ambient a i r
c o n c e n t r a t i o n s i s t o be achieved. The same
d a t a a r e needed f o r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of f i e l d
observations.
I n t e r a c t i o n of A i r P o l l u t i o n S t r e s s e s With
Management Practices--How does t h e e f f e c t of
an a i r p o l l u t a n t on a f o r e s t d i f f e r under d i f f e r e n t t h i n n i n g regimes? This question may
be examined i n t h e next phase of r e s e a r c h i n t h e
San Bernardino Mountain pine f o r e s t s .
Carbon Dioxide Enrichment i n t h e Atmosphere-Rising ambient CO2 l e v e l s a r e a f f e c t i n g f o r e s t
growth. How do t h e s e e f f e c t s i n t e r a c t with
ambient a i r p o l l u t i o n l e v e l s ? How w i l l t h e
a f f e c t of C02 on g l o b a l c l i m a t e f u r t h e r a f f e c t p o l l u t i o n response of f o r e s t s ?
Funding of Research on F o r e s t Growth Models
S p e c i f i c a l l y B u i l t t o Incorporate A i r Poll u t i o n Effects--Most e x i s t i n g models simu l a t e f o r e s t growth i n t h e absence of pollut i o n e f f e c t s , and were funded by agencies o t h e r
than those concerned with a i r p o l l u t i o n .
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Integration: a Role for Adaptive
Environmental Assessment and
Management
'
L
Nicholas C. Sonntag, Robert R. Everitt, Michael J. Staley
Abstract: Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management (AEAM) is a proven methodology for integration and analysis of environmental research and management. Simulation modelling workshops are an essential part of the process. They act as a catalyst to focus analysis, stimulate discussion and foster communication amongst managers, planners and scientific disciplinarians. Some of the philosophy and methodology are described along with a case study example on the Alberta Oil Sands Environmental Research Program (AOSERP). The emphasis is on how AEAM can help foster integration and communication of scientific information. Over the last decade we have seen phenomenal growth of environmental science. It has spawned a proliferation of public and private institutions dedicated to environmental research and protection. Environmental research and management have become highly skilled, influential, and more often than not, respected professions. Governments have created such well meaning provisions as the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), the Clean Air Act and the Water Quality Act in the United States, and the Environmental Assessment and Review Process (EARP) in Canada. These gallant efforts to research and protect the environment have over the years generated voluminous amounts of information; information intended ultimately to provide knowledge to help mankind better manage the world's environment and resources. The challenge today is to analyze and make sease of the vast amount of data and knowledge. Unfortunately most research has been disciplinary presented at the Symposium on Effects of Air Pollutants on Mediterranean and Temperate Forest Ecosystems, June 22-27, 1980, Riverside, California. "ESSA Environmental and Social Systems Analysts Ltd., respectively, Vancouver, British Columbia. based, and inspite of a desire for interdisciplis- ary coordination most large research programs have failed to integrate their results. One reason for this is the lack of a proper forum for communica- tion amongst scientific specialists; another is the absence of a systematic framework for synthe- sizing results. While some programs have been successful at pulling the individual studies to- gether few have been able to make the results relevant to environmental management. Many argue that this can be remedied by raising the quality of environmental research. Unfortunately there is a dichotomy between environmental research and environmental management. Research science cannot effectively guide managers because scientists do not readily comprehend management concerns; management cannot adequately direct research science since managers often do not have scienti- fic knowledge or the breadth of understanding such knowledge provides. .This inability of scientists and managers to interact effectively has been a major stumbling block in developing progressive policies and attitudes towards the environment both in the public and private sector. Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management (AEAM), well documented in (tolling (19781, has evolved over the last ten years into a proven methodology for integrating environmental research while linking research and management. AEAM uses computer simulation modelling in a unique and novel way. Within a structured modelling workshop, the task of constructing a simulation model acts as a catalyst to focus analysis, stimulate discussion and foster communication amongst managers, plan-
ners, and scientific disciplinarians. are not of equal importance and judgment is the toolof management not exhaustive research. MODELLING WORKSHOPS: THE CORE OF AEAM BIASES OF AEAM Ecologist's understanding of ecosystem struc- ture and behaviour have come from four basic properties which determine how ecological systems respond to change (Holling, 1978). 1. The parts of an ecological system are con- nected to each other in a selective way (this has implications for what should be measured). 2. Events are not uniform over space. (This has implications for how intense impacts will be and where they will occur.) 3. Sharp shifts in behaviour are natural for many ecosystems. (Traditional methods of monitor- ing or assessment can misinterpret these and make them seem unexpected or perverse.) 4. Variability, not constancy, is a feature of ecological systems that contributes to their per- sistence and to their self monitoring and self correcting capabilities. Underlying each of these properties is the fact that environmental systems are characterized by overwhelming uncertainty. Man's understanding of the underlying biological, social and physical processes and interactions is minimal, and will remain so for the forseeable future. The complex and pervasive nature of environmental and social issues guarantees our ignorance will always exceed our knowledge. The many sources of error in environmental sys-
tems ensure that no matter how broad or deep an analysis inevitably something outside will in- fluence the results and violate the predictions. The conclusion is that environmental and social systems are fundamentally unpredictable. If you accept this hypothesis then, how can environmental science produce effective research and management. First and foremost we must never promote re- search and analysis as the panacea for prediction of the fate of society and its environment. Second, we must recognize that decisions are al- ways made under uncertainty, and ignorance. Realizing this we must capitalize on methods that help focus ideas and information, integrate con- cepts, and guide decision making. Better decisions will usually be made with a clear picture of both knowledge and ignorance, and a broad appreciation of the consequences of action. The key tool of AEAM is the computer modelling workshops. These short intense meetings circum- vent the natural scientific tendency for reduction- ism and the eternal cry for more studies. Parti-
cipants in these workshops are forced to recognize that all components of natural resource systems A modelling workshop is a 3 to 5 day meeting of a group of scientists, planners, and managers in- volved in the design and execution of an environ- mental study. No papers are presented, there is no keynote speaker, there are simply 3 to 5 days of focussed activity on the problems at hand. The development of a computer simulation model of the physical, biological, and social aspects of the problem serves as the focus for the workshop. Participants in the workshop do
need any knowledge of computers or modelling to contribute to the workshop and to gain from its results. Workshop facilitators translate participant input into quantitative relationships that can be pro- grammed into the simulation model. The facilita- tors can be viewed as information translators for it is the participants who conceptualize the model. Therefore the model that evolves from a workshop is as much a product of the ideas and concerns of people unfamiliar with modelling as it is a product of those familiar with simulation techniques.' The obvious objective of a modelling workshop is to build and run a computer simulation model of the bio-physical system of interest. However, the resultant model is not an end in itself. Usually its predictions are not very precise and it often lacks obvious features of the actual system. Rather, the model is a focus for communication promoting objectivity and honesty. Building the model forces the participants to formalize their understanding of the system components and inter- actions. This facilitates easier evaluation of the importance of interactions to the system and the workshop objectives. Often favoured factors turn out to be irrelevant for predictions, therefore requiring less future effort both in model develop- ment and data-gathering programs. As with many modelling studies, a workshop gen- erated model confers the ability to test hypotheses, research plans and different management policies without risk. However, that is where the similarity usually ends. Since a workshop model is designed and built by all the participants its structure and resultant dynamics are "transparent" to the user. The model is comprehensible. This inspires trust and increases insight thereby promoting generalization of the model projections. It also facilitates easier evaluation of those factors left out of the model. The modelling workshop style prevents the build- ing of a sophisticated state of the art simulation model. The workshop model is invariably simple in structure and inefficient in operation. Further by striving to simplify the problem the need for sophisticated tools such as complex implicit (or explicit) finite difference methods for approximat- ing differential equations are usually avoided. Although the precision of the model's predictions may suffer simplification does not deter from the objectives of participant involvement, communica- tion and understanding. People are the key components in the modelling workshop not the model. This does not have to be the case after the work- shop. Often the model structure established serves as an excellent guide for future modelling efforts when more consideration can be given to the "art" of simulation modelling. By definition any simulation model is "wrong" since it must be a simplification of reality. However, complex models do not necessarily make better predictions. As the number of variables increases, so does the number of assumptions about how they are related and the chances of making a critically wrong assumption rises rapidly. There-
fore parsimony is the underlying workshop modelling theme. Interactions and relations should make sense when interpreted in terms of physics and biology. Logical consistency and clarity are stressed in the building of the workshop model and go far in maintaining its "transparency" to the participants. The incorporation of modelling workshops in the AEAM process is designed to be iterative. By locating them between sequential field programs the researchers and managers have the opportunity to adapt research plans and management policies in light of new insights emerging from the modell- ing workshop exercise. The AEAM process, and specifically modelling workshops, can be success- fully implemented at any point in a study, right up to the end. The integration and coordination aspects of modelling workshops provide a useful vehicle for communication among those responsible for preparing environmental overviews and assess- ments. This ensures they are pertinent, credible, and address the questions being asked. Further the resultant model (after some refinement) provides a very effective device for summarizing and presenting the results of a study to policy makers, administrators and/or funding agencies. A workshop held in 1979 on the Alberta Oil Sands, is a good example of such an application. a minimum of environmental damage. This policy resulted in particular attention being paid by regulatory agencies to the need for development of an environmental research program for the Athabasca Oil Sands region. Consequently, late in 1973, officials of Alberta Environment (Research Secre- tariat) and Environment Canada (Environmental Management Service) separately produced internal reports recommending a comprehensive environmental research program. Projections in each of the reports favoured an environmental research program lasting 10 years, with total costs estimated in the range of $30 million to $40 million." (Smith 1979) .
The Alberta Oil Sands Environmental Research Program (AOSERP) began in April, 1975. Early investigations were used primarily to establish large data bases. The data bases were intended to facilitate the construction of models to aid in predicting physical, chemical, biological, and social impacts of Oil Sands development. In the fall of 1979, AOSERP sponsored an AEAM modelling workshop. By this time the program had been organized into four systems: Air, Land, Water and Human. The objectives of the workshop were: (1) to construct a simulation model that would provide a mechanism of integration of the plethora of AOSERP data and information; (2) to delineate the interrelationship between the sys- tems (Air, Land, Water, Human) that are basic to a general understanding; (3) to identify and evaluate data gaps and uncertainties about system function; and (4) to evaluate and recommend approaches to environmental management in the oil sands areas, including mechanisms for technology transfer from AOSERP to Alberta Environment regu- latory branches (Staley and others 1979). The participants in the workshop included the director of AOSERP, the heads of the Air, Water, Land and Human systems, the chairman of the Research Secre- tariat of Alberta Environment, as well as numerous government scientists and planners, and private consultants. Simulation Model ASSESSMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF ALBERTA OIL SANDS DEVELOPMENT Setting 'The development of the Athabasca Deposit, one of several oil sands deposits in Alberta, has been the subject of intense interest for several de- cades. The Athabasca Deposit contains more than 600x10" barrels of bitumen reserves, and consti- tutes about 88 percent of known oil sands in Alberta. Consequently its potential to augment the oil supply of Canada has been a driving force in present development, and will continue to gen- erate pressure for further development . . .
...The
Government of Alberta has an established
policy of environmental legislation which allows for the orderly development of resources with During the bounding exercise, the workshop decided to consider the entire AOSERP study area which comprises approximately 2.86xlo4 square kilometers of northeastern Alberta, Canada with the spatial resolution based on the area's 13 water drainage units. To assess impacts over a meaning- ful period, a thirty year time horizon with a yearly time step was used. Important system phenomena operating on a shorter time scale were represented implicitly within the one year step. The simulation model was divided into four inter- related submodels: human, physical transport, aquatic biology, and terrestrial. The human submodel consisted of three components: 1. An industrial component that generated a number of different development scenarios. 2.
A population component t h a t estimated t h e
population based on background growth and development r e l a t e d growth s c e n a r i o s .
3 . A land component t h a t c a l c u l a t e d t h e land
requirements f o r urban, i n d u s t r i a l and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n needs.
The t r a n s p o r t submodel was concerned with t h e
p h y s i c a l t r a n s p o r t of water, a i r , and a s s o c i a t e d
p o l l u t a n t s throughout t h e AOSERP a r e a . The water
component was a simple hydrological model of t h e
flow w i t h i n t h e 13 water drainage u n i t s . Relevant
water p o l l u t a n t s were s e l e c t e d a s water q u a l i t y
i n d i c a t o r s and t h e i r concentrations were c a l c u l a t ed f o r each water drainage u n i t .
of t e c h n i c a l meetings t o be held with t h e s t a f f of
each of t h e Human, Land, Water and A i r systems.
The r e s u l t s of t h e s e meetings w i l l guide model
refinement. The f i n a l model w i l l be put t o g e t h e r
i n an i n t e g r a t i o n workshop where t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s
of t h e o r i g i n a l workshop and t h e t e c h n i c a l meetings
w i l l i n t e r a c t i v e l y game with t h e model. Once t h e
model goes through t h i s " t r i a l by f i r e u before i t s
c r e a t o r s t h e model w i l l be used t o evaluate a number
of environmental management s t r a t e g i e s . This w i l l
be done i n an one day p o l i c y workshop focussed on
t h e evaluation of t h e model's p r o j e c t i o n s . I t i s
t h e r e s u l t s of t h i s l a t t e r s t a g e t h a t w i l l measure
t h e degree of success of t h i s a p p l i c a t i o n of AEAM.
CONCLUSIONS
The a q u a t i c biology submodel was concerned with
t h e impacts of commercial and r e c r e a t i o n a l f i s h e r men, instream flows, and instream p o l l u t a n t s on
four common f i s h s p e c i e s .
The t e r r e s t r i a l submodel was r e s p o n s i b l e f o r
r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e v e g e t a t i o n and w i l d l i f e dynamics.
The model concentrated on t h e economically import a n t s p e c i e s moose and beaver and t h e i r h a b i t a t .
RESULTS
A d e t a i l e d d e s c r i p t i o n of t h e simulation model
and i t s r e s u l t s a r e found i n S t a l e y e t a l .
(1979). However, t h e r e s u l t s of applying t h e AEAM
process a r e f a r more important than t h e o u t p u t o f
t h e model. Each submodel made e x p l i c i t a number
of d a t a and information gaps. A t t h e conclusion
of t h e workshop i t was apparent t h a t many of t h e
d a t a gaps revealed by t h e simulation modelling
e x e r c i s e could be f i l l e d by a p p r o p r i a t e reorganiz a t i o n of t h e AOSERP d a t a base. However, i t a l s o
became c l e a r t h a t a f u r t h e r conceptual understanding of t h e environmental system under study was
needed before a d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s of t h e e f f e c t s
of o i l sands development could be made. This has
important i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r f u t u r e r e s e a r c h s i n c e
t h e d a t a b a s e l i n e has been e s t a b l i s h e d . Further
r e s e a r c h should concentrate on understanding t h e
dynamics of t h e system. I n o t h e r words t h e focus
needs t o be on those t h i n g s t h a t cause v a r i a t i o n
and change i n t h e system, and not on t h e c u r r e n t
s t a t e of t h e system.
The AEAM process r e p r e s e n t s t h e combined l e a r n ing of a number of i n t e r n a t i o n a l s c i e n t i s t s and
p r a c t i t i o n e r s and i s i n a s t a t e of "dynamic e q u i l i brium", c o n t i n u a l l y adapting i n l i g h t of new
experience. But t h e term "adaptivew s t r e s s e s a
more important lesson, t h e need f o r r e s e a r c h and
management t o be open t o change and t o be adapt
i n both s t y l e and content when new information
becomes a v a i l a b l e . While AEAM i t s e l f i s i n a
c o n t i n u a l s t a t e of change, i t s two underlying themes, expect t h e unexpected, and l e a r n t o p l a n
and p l a n t o l e a r n , never change.
U t i l i z i n g t h e modelling workshop provides many
b e n e f i t s t o t h e success of t h e AEAM e x e r c i s e . I t
f o r c e s p a r t i c i p a n t s t o focus on t h e r e l e v a n t i s s u e s ,
promotes i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y communication,
i d e n t i f i e s information needs, provides a framework
f o r evaluation of e x i s t i n g information and management a c t i o n s , and i s a guide f o r environmental
p o l i c y design.
AEAM through i t s use of simulation i n t h e workshop s e t t i n g provides a mechanism f o r i n t e g r a t i n g
information and f a c i l i t a t i n g t h e a n a l y s i s of
impacts r a t h e r than massaging b a s e l i n e d a t a . I t
i s through thoughtful s y n t h e s i s , a n a l y s i s and
e f f e c t i v e communication of environmental information
t h a t environmental managers and r e s e a r c h e r s w i l l
make e f f e c t i v e use of t h e i r resources: time,
money and e x p e r t i s e .
LITERATURE CITED
The simulation model i t s e l f provided a v e h i c l e
f o r i n t e g r a t i o n of f i v e years of environmental
r e s e a r c h . The process of b u i l d i n g t h e model i n t h e
workshop revealed a number of important r e l a t i o n s h i p s between t h e (Air, Water, Land, Human)
systems t h a t a r e b a s i c t o an o v e r a l l understanding.
The a p p l i c a t i o n of t h e AEAM process t o AOSERP
i s n o t complete. The next phase which should
be completed i n t h e f a l l of 1980 w i l l concentrate
on developing t h e model a s a t o o l t o a i d environmental management i n t h e o i l sands a r e a . The
many conceptual weaknesses and bad d a t a i n t h e
simulation model w i l l be remedied through a s e r i e s
Holling, C.S. ( e d i t o r ) . 1978. Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management. 377 p .
Wiley Inter-Science, Chichester.
Smith, S.B. ( e d i t o r ) . 1979. Alberta O i l Sands
Environmental Research Program Interim Report
covering period April 1975 t o November 1978.
Prepared by A.S. Mann, R . H . Hursey, R.T.
Seidner, and B. Kasinska-Banas. Edmonton,
Alberta.
S t a l e y , M . J . , and o t h e r s . 1979. Report of a s i m u l a t i o n modelling workshop on t h e environmental
e f f e c t s of Alberta O i l Sands development. 73 pp.