Regeneration of California Oak Woodlands 2001-20051 Tara Barrett2 and Karen Waddell3 Abstract The first (1981-1984) and second (1991-1994) statewide inventories of California’s oak woodlands found low levels of regeneration for several common oak species. In 2001, a new statewide inventory of California’s oak woodlands was initiated, with 10 percent of field plots measured each year. The first five years of data (2001-2005) were used to examine regeneration and sapling distributions in common oak woodland types. Blue oak (Quercus douglasii Hook. & Arn.), valley oak (Quercus lobata Nee), and coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia Nee) forest types are characterized by low numbers of saplings, having mean levels of 60.5 (+/- 10.2), 22.2 (+/-9.8), and 77.8 (+/- 18.7) trees per acre for all species of trees in the 1 to 5 inches diameter breast height (DBH) class. In this third decade of monitoring, diameter distributions for blue oak and valley oak departed from the expected inverse-J shape. Better information on population-wide growth and mortality of saplings would be useful for understanding whether these observations indicate trouble ahead for the long-term sustainability of these oak species. Keywords: California oak, forest monitoring, oak savannah, oak woodland, recruitment. Introduction The sustainability of oak woodlands is a matter of concern in California, due to issues such as conversion of forest to developed land (Bolsinger 1988), the introduction of Phytophthora ramorum and its effect on California black oak and coast live oak (Rizzo and others 2002), and low levels of regeneration and sapling recruitment for the more xeric oak forest types (Tyler and others 2002). The low level of observable recruitment for some oak species has been commented on over the decades (Sudworth 1908), although there is considerable debate about whether it is truly a problem for long-term viability of oak woodlands (Tyler and others 2006). Explanations for low levels of recruitment include consumption by wildlife, livestock, and insects; environmental and chemical inhibition from introduced grasses, and other environmental factors (McDonald 1990). While blue oak has been the focus of the bulk of research on regeneration, other species including valley oak, coast live oak, and Oregon white oak (Quercus garryana Hook.) have also been studied. 1 An abbreviated version of this paper was presented at the Sixth California Oak Symposium: Today’s Challenges, Tomorrow’s Opportunities, October 9-12, 2006, Rohnert Park, California. 2 Research Forester, Forest Inventory and Analysis, Pacific Northwest and Southwest Research Stations, Anchorage Forestry Sciences Lab, 3301 C Street Suite 200, Anchorage, AK 99503. e-mail: tbarrett@fs.fed.us. 3 Analyst, Forest Inventory and Analysis, Pacific Northwest and Southwest Research Stations, P.O. Box 3890, Portland, OR 97208. e-mail: kwaddell@fs.fed.us. 323 GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PSW-GTR-217 It is impractical to monitor statewide sustainability of oak populations using age information, as seedlings and saplings are not bored due to concerns about harming the trees. Tyler and others (2006) suggest that the size structure of oak populations can serve as a method for monitoring sustainability, despite the only moderate correlation between size and age in oak populations. Diameter at breast height (DBH) measurements have been the most frequently used size-class method for monitoring tree populations. Numbers of trees by diameter class are used here as a direct metric for monitoring oak species. Assessing whether regeneration of oak woodlands is sufficient for sustainability would require knowing rates of regeneration, growth, and mortality. With a diameter class model for sustainability, these rates would be expressed in terms of numbers of trees entering and leaving specific diameter classes within specific time periods. A simple diameter class population model for a tree species can be written as: D max [1] N0 = ∑r N i i i =1 D max [2] Ni = ∑G N j =0 ij j - miNi ∀ i = 1, .., Dmax [3] NDmax + 1 = 0 where Ni is the number of trees in the diameter class i, Dmax is the maximum diameter class, ri and mi are the regeneration and mortality rates for diameter class i, and G is a vector of growth (or shrinkage) rates for transitions from each diameter class j into diameter class i. When growth (G), mortality (m), and regeneration (r) are constant over time, the distribution of the population over diameter classes would be expected to slowly approach equilibrium regardless of the initial starting distribution, or, if in the equilibrium distribution, would stay constant. For a given tree species, the shape of an equilibrium diameter distribution of the entire population takes the form of an inverted J-shaped curve. Species with low-regeneration and low-mortality rates can be expected to have characteristically different diameter distributions than species with high-regeneration and higher-mortality rates, but both will resemble an inverse J-shaped curve. Diameter distributions that shift over time can either indicate recent changes in mortality, growth or regeneration, or they can indicate a past change to which the population is continuing to adjust. The first (1981-1984) statewide inventory of oak woodlands found low regeneration of some species (Bolsinger 1988), as did the second (1991-1994) inventory (Waddell and Barrett 2005). In this paper, we present initial results from the third (2001-2005) statewide inventory of oak woodlands in California, focusing on regeneration and sapling recruitment. Diameter class distributions are presented as a snapshot indicator of population-level dynamics. 324 Regeneration of California Oak Woodlands 2001-2005—Barrett Methods Data were from the annual Forest Inventory and Analysis program, which inventories forestland in the United States (Gillespie 1999) through a combination of remote sensing data and field plots. All forestland in California—public and private—is monitored through this program, with one-tenth of all field plots measured each year beginning in 2001. For this project, we used the 2001-2005 data, consisting of 8,328 plots of which 2,754 were at least partially forested. Although these data represent only half of the plots scheduled to be installed in California, the sampling intensity is equivalent to that used for oak woodland in the 1991-1994 inventory and roughly twice the sampling intensity of the 1981-1984 inventory used by Bolsinger (1988) in the first oak woodlands report. Other changes between the second and third inventories include a change to the procedure used to determine forestland, changes in the layout of the field plot, changes in the procedures used to classify forest types, and a change from variable radius to fixed radius tree selection. In addition, all forestland is included in 20012005 inventory, whereas the second inventory excluded reserved land such as state and national parks, and the first inventory excluded reserved land and national forest land. Each field plot consists of four subplots, which are themselves composed of nested circles within which trees of various sizes are measured for DBH, height, species, and live crown ratio (USDA 2005). Trees larger than 24.0 inches DBH are measured within a 58.9-foot radius circle (a “macroplot”), trees 5.0 to 23.9 inches DBH are measured on a 24-foot radius circle (a “subplot”), and saplings less than 5.0 inches are measured on a 6.8-foot radius circle (a “microplot”). The total plot area on which forest conditions are mapped is 1 acre. All data used here are available through the national FIA Web site (www.fia.fs.fed.us/) or by request at the regional FIA Web site (www.fs.fed.us/pnw/fia/). Diameter distributions, tree per acre estimates, and sampling error were calculated with standard methods (Bechtold and Patterson 2005). Forest types were calculated using a classification algorithm (Stanford and others 2001). Results and Discussion Relative to other forest types, blue oak and valley oak forest have sparse seedling occurrence (fig. 1). The metric used to measure relative abundance of seedlings is to count the number of microplots into which at least one seedling fell. Although this metric can be useful for comparing relative seedling abundance between forest types, or for monitoring relative seedling abundance over time, sparse seedling occurrence does not necessarily indicate seedling occurrence that is below replacement level. 325 GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PSW-GTR-217 Tanoak Douglas-fir California black oak Canyon live oak / interior live oak California mixed conifer Red fir Oregon white oak White fir Lodgepole pine Coast live oak Ponderosa pine Valley oak Blue oak 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Nonstocked Lightly Stocked Stocked Figure 1—Percent of FIA plots 2001-2005 by seedling stocking class. Includes seedlings of all species within plots of homogenous forest type. Nonstocked = 0 of 4 microplots with seedlings; Lightly stocked = 1 of 4 microplots with seedlings; Stocked = 2 or more microplots with seedlings. For the 2001-2005 inventory, the diameter distributions of interior live oak (Quercus wislizeni A.DC.) and California black oak (Quercus kelloggii Newb.) both resemble the classic inverse-J shape (fig. 2). California black oak’s distribution differs from interior live oak’s distribution as would be expected of a species with relatively lower rates of regeneration and mortality. 326 Regeneration of California Oak Woodlands 2001-2005—Barrett 350 300 Numbers of trees (millions) 250 200 California black oak Interior live oak 150 100 50 0 1 - 2.9 3 - 4.9 5 - 6.9 7 - 8.9 9 - 10.9 11 12.9 13 14.9 15 16.9 17 18.9 19 20.9 21 + Diameter class (in) Figure 2—Diameter class distribution for California black oak and interior live oak, all California forestland 2001-2005. The common oak species that are found in more open xeric conditions have a greater departure from typical diameter distributions (fig. 3). The distribution curve for Oregon white oak most closely resembles typical tree species, while blue oak, coast live oak, and valley oak all show convexity over part of their distribution. Some of this may be explainable by sampling error, which is particularly high for trees less than 5 inches diameter at breast height (DBH) because these trees are only measured on the very small (6.8-foot radius) microplots. There are several reasons why convexity in a diameter class distribution could occur. Even with constant regeneration and mortality rates, variations in growth rates could explain this. When mortality rates are very low, a slower growth rate in a larger diameter class can result in convexity, as individual trees are in the small diameter class for a shorter period of time. In addition to diameter growth changes caused by aging, sapling growth can be increased by short-term environmental changes such as higher levels of precipitation or seasonal changes in the distribution of rainfall (Hanson and others 2001). Convexity could be caused by mortality rates that are higher for certain diameter classes for a specific interval of time. For example, a decade with larger areas of forest burned, if the fires cause higher mortality in smaller diameter classes, could create convexity in the population distribution. These types of causes would be most likely to occur for species that have small geographic ranges, as the probability of a large percent of the population being affected by a stochastic event is higher. 327 GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PSW-GTR-217 80 70 Number of trees (millions) 60 50 Blue oak Coast live oak 40 Oregon white oak Valley oak 30 20 10 0 1 - 2.9 3 - 4.9 5 - 6.9 7 - 8.9 9 - 10.9 11 12.9 13 14.9 15 16.9 17 18.9 19 20.9 21 + Diameter class Figure 3—Diameter distributions for blue oak, coast live oak, Oregon white oak and valley oak, all California forestland, 2001-2005. A third explanation for convexity in a diameter distribution is regeneration rates that have decreased over time. One method to help understand whether changes in rates of regeneration and mortality are affecting the population is to track the diameter distribution over time. Looking at diameter distributions of blue oak for three successive inventories is not conclusive, but it appears that changes in regeneration or mortality for small saplings may have occurred in the past (fig. 4). Even when the ratio of large trees to small trees is high, mortality and growth rates are needed to understand sustainability. For example, in the 2001-2005 inventory, the ratio of number of blue oak trees in the 1- to 3-inch DBH class to the number of blue oak trees in the 11- to 13-inch DBH class is 3.4:1. Past FIA inventories provide some growth information that can be used to aid understanding of the sustainability of this ratio. Average diameter growth for blue oak saplings between 1981 and 1984 and 1991 and 1994 was 0.53 inches per decade for 1- to 3inch DBH trees, 0.61 inches per decade for 3- to 5-inch DBH trees, 0.60 inches per decade for 5- to 7-inch DBH trees, 0.68 inches per decade for 7- to 9-inch DBH trees, and 0.70 inches per decade for 9- to 11-inch DBH trees (n=37; 41; 39; 34; 37). Assuming a 0.70 inch/decade growth rate, an individual tree might take 140 years to grow from 2 inches DBH to 12 inches DBH. With the assumption of 140 years for growth, the annual survival rate for 2-inch DBH trees growing to 12 inches DBH trees would have to be 99.1 percent to sustain the 3.4:1 diameter class ratio that was observed in the 2001-2005 inventory. 328 Regeneration of California Oak Woodlands 2001-2005—Barrett 50,000,000 1981-84 - 90,000,000 1991-94 - 90,000,000 2001-05 21 + 3. 0 1. 0 -2 .9 -4 5. .9 0 -6 7. .9 0 9. 8.9 0 11 10. 9 .0 13 12 .0 .9 15 14 . 9 .0 17 16 . 9 .0 19 18 .0 .9 -2 0. 9 0 Figure 4—Diameter distributions of blue oak from three successive forest inventories of California. Absolute numbers are not comparable because of differences in the included land base. 329 GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PSW-GTR-217 Overall, saplings are sparse in blue oak, coast live oak, and valley oak forest types (table 1). These three oak forest types, with corresponding species that depart furthest from the classic inverse-J diameter distribution, also have the lowest overall density, measured in trees per acre (table 1). With open stand structures (few trees of any size) even moderate changes in regeneration can have long-lasting effects on the size distribution of the population. Although a low-mortality rate should contribute to the stability of a population, a tree species that is characterized by slow growth, slow regeneration, and a low-background mortality rate also has less potential to recover from disturbances. Because blue oak and valley oak are endemic to California, and coast live oak is endemic with the exception of a few small areas in Mexico, low regeneration observed from this statewide monitoring could indicate problems with sustainability for these three species. Table 1—Number of trees per acre on oak woodland forest types in California, 2001 to 2005.1 Diameter class (in) 1 – 4.9 5 – 9.9 10 – 14.9 15 – 19.9 20+ All classes Mean Mean Mean Mean Mean Mean Forest type (SE) (SE) (SE) (SE) (SE) (SE) Blue oak 60.5 49.2 15.9 5.2 2.3 133.1 (10.2) (2.6) (0.9) (0.5) (0.2) (11.1) Canyon live – 345.2 109.7 26.3 7.4 4.6 493.1 interior live oak (27.8) (5.4) (1.5) (0.6) (0.4) (28.3) Coast live oak 77.8 58.5 28.4 14.7 7.2 186.5 (18.7) (5.1) (2.8) (1.4) (0.8) (20.2) California black oak 242.7 90.2 29.6 10.5 6.5 379.5 (31.4) (7.2) (2.1) (1.0) (0.6) (33.8) Valley oak 22.2 45.8 13.0 2.3 4.8 88.0 (9.8) (10.3) (3.1) (0.7) (1.3) (15.2) Oregon white oak 227.8 91.9 24.0 7.2 2.8 353.7 (35.2) (8.7) (2.3) (1.2) (0.7) (36.4) 1 Includes trees of all species Conclusion Based on the 2001-2005 inventory, sapling recruitment of blue oak, valley oak, and coast live oak appears to be low for the statewide population. These species show diameter distributions that are atypical for forest tree species, but these species are also atypical in their very open low-density woodland structure. Sparse regeneration and low density of small saplings for blue oak has been consistently observed for three decades of forest inventory, and in observational records for nearly a century. Diameter distributions are useful in understanding the populations’ structures, but it is not possible to know whether the lack of regeneration results in non-sustainable populations from diameter distributions alone. Better information on statewide regeneration (ri), growth (Gij), and mortality rates (mi) would allow dynamic modeling of the population structure and enhanced ability to monitor for long-term sustainability for these species. 330 Regeneration of California Oak Woodlands 2001-2005—Barrett References Arner, S.L; Woudenberg, S.; Waters, S.; Vissage, J.; MacLean, C.; Thompson, T.; Hansen, M. 2001. 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