Preface Maintaining viability of northern spotted owl populations in Washington, Oregon, and California, in the face of the many activities that take place in their habitats, especially logging, has challenged public land managers for nearly two decades. Policies and guidelines established by the USDA Forest Service during the late 1970s and early 1980s were challenged repeatedly, and from opposing camps. The timber industry is concerned that management of the owl's preferred habitat unnecessarily restricts commodity production, while environmental interests contend that Forest Service plans for the owl fall short of assuring long-term viability of the bird. Although the controversy has been more hotly debated over the northern spotted owl, the California spotted owl has recently taken part of the spotlight. The Report and Its Origin During most of the 1980s, the Forest Service implemented a conservation strategy based on retention of Spotted Owl Habitat Areas (SOHAs) capable of supporting one to three pairs of owls, separated from each other by distances ranging from 6 to 12 miles, edge-to-edge. A recent, comprehensive assessment of management for the northern spotted owl identified serious weaknesses in the SOHA strategy, however, and gave rise to a markedly different approach for conserving the owl.1 Because the SOHA strategy is currently used to manage for the California subspecies, in June 1991 the Forest Service and various agencies of the State of California initiated a technical assessment of the current status of the California spotted owl, under auspices of an Interagency Steering Committee for the California Spotted Owl Assessment (the "Steering Committee"). The Steering Committee formed two investigative, advisory teams-the Technical Assessment Team and the Policy-Implementation Team. This report contains findings of the Technical Assessment Team, as transmitted to the Steering Committee on 8 May 1992. The Team's findings will be further evaluated by the Policy-Implementation Team, which will suggest policies and guidelines for implementing recommendations of the Technical Assessment Team. Final recommendations will then be made by the Steering Committee. In developing this technical assessment, we have drawn information from many sources-the owl's biology, including its geographic distribution, habitat associations, life history, demography, and ecological relations; historical aspects of land management and disturbance in the Sierra Nevada and southern California; fuels management; principles of conservation biology; and risk analysis. This was consistent with our assignment, as set forth in the charter that established the Technical Assessment Team. The charter also directed the Team to "follow accepted scientific standards and practices." Accordingly, to the extent possible, we have used the hypothetico-deductive process to guide our assessment of available information. We sought to falsify specific null hypotheses by using empirical data, computer models, widely accepted concepts and theories, and professional judgment (common sense!), rejecting hypotheses that failed these tests. This does not mean that surviving hypotheses are necessarily correct, only that they were not falsified by present information. This is the way of science. It inevitably leaves us with areas of uncertainty. How we deal with that uncertainty in the end depends, of course, on society's objectives. The next step in following accepted scientific standards and practices was to submit a nearly final draft of our report for peer review by five other scientists not selected by the Team. This was accomplished by requesting that the Presidents of five learned societies-The American Ornithologists' Union, The Ecological Society of America, The Society of American Foresters, The Society for Conservation Biology, and The Wildlife Society-personally select one reviewer each, at their discretion. We then sent the draft document to each of these reviewers, whose critical comments and suggestions were taken into account in the revisions leading to this final report. Although the report focuses on the California spotted owl, much more is at issue here. The owl is designated as an "indicator species" for old-growth ecosystems even though, as detailed in some of the chapters beyond, it is not restricted to just those habitats. But owl pairs use inordinately large areas in the course of their daily, seasonal, and annual activities, making the species an effective "umbrella" for a host of other species that satisfy their life requisites in the same habitats. Certainly commodity production must figure prominently when we weigh the pros and cons of maintaining viable populations of spotted owls. But prudence demands that the assessment be exhaustive and extend beyond the bottom line for the next year, or even the next decade. For the forest ecosystems we consider, our appraisal must look many decades, even centuries, into the future to be certain that decisions we make today are sustainable into the future-that they do not compromise future benefits from these ecosystems. A truly balanced assessment, therefore, "...must consider water quality, fisheries, recreation, soils, stream flows, scenic values, biological diversity, and other species of wildlife. All aspects of such a decision should be weighed in the balance. The issues are not limited to questions of owls and timber supply, as important as those are. The matter is not that simple-it never has been."' 1 Thomas, Jack Ward; Forsman, Eric E.; Lint, Joseph B.; Meslow, E. Charles; Noon, Barry R.; Verner, Jared. 1990. A conservation strategy for the northern spotted owl. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office; 427 p. USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-133. 1992. v Some Guidelines for Using the Report Acknowledgments The report consists of 13 chapters covering various aspects of the information needed for the assessment. Chapter 1 is an extended summary of Chapters 3-13, providing the bare essentials about key findings to establish the basis for our final conclusions, and presenting our recommendations. It is the essence of our assessment. Chapter 2 presents the consensus of the Technical Assessment Team's recommendations about what we think future efforts on the California spotted owl should be, and why. Readers can explore any or all of the remaining chapters, as needed or desired, for details on statements and conclusions summarized in Chapter 1. Chapter 3 presents the general background leading up to the present issue and summarizes what we know of the owl's distribution throughout California, and how the subspecies is being managed. The next seven chapters describe the owl's general biology and ecological relations, results of studies on its habitat associations, its demography and projections of population stability, and its major prey species. Finally, Chapters 11-13 consider how conifer forests in the owl's range came to be what they are today, review the fire history and current fuels problems in owl habitat, and identify projected trends in the forested habitats used by the owl. Four appendices conclude the report: Appendix A identifies the Technical Assessment Team and provides a brief chronology of Team activities leading to the report; Appendix B is a glossary of terms used in the text; Appendix C lists the common and scientific names of plant and animal species mentioned in the text; and Appendix D identifies authors of the various parts of the document. We adopted some policies in the preparation of this report that we believe will ease the reader's task. Figures and tables are labeled by number for the chapter in which they appear, and by letter for their order in that chapter (for example, figure 4C is the third figure in Chapter 4). This procedure allows us to cross reference figures and tables from one chapter to another without confusion. In addition, a set of color photos of owl habitat taken during the Team's field trips are aggregated at the end of Chapter 5; these are identified as "colored photo 5-1," colored photo 5-2," and so on. We have substituted acronyms for several entities that are mentioned frequently in the text. Some are already familiar to most readers (for example, USDA = the United States Department of Agriculture), but in each chapter we define anew each acronym when it is first used. A list of many of the common acronyms appears after the Contents pages in this volume, for quick reference in case readers momentarily forget what one represents. All measurements are expressed in English units (for example, feet, acres, ounces) instead of metric units (meters, hectares, grams). This decision was made because English units are still used by Federal land-management agencies and by the forest industry, and because most of the general public still thinks in terms of English units, not metric units. To complete this assessment, we have relied upon assistance, input, information, and general cooperation from literally hundreds of persons. To acknowledge each one is clearly not possible. We could not even rank them in order of the importance of their contributions. Certainly our biggest debt is to the many biologists from all the State and Federal agencies and private entities-both in management and research-who have spent countless hundreds of hours in the field, mostly at night, hooting for owls, searching for their nests, measuring nest trees and stands, locating owlets, recording data, and generally accumulating the wealth of information now available about the owl and its habitats. In particular, we thank the Forest and District Biologists from the National Forests within the range of the California spotted owl who have responded, again and again, to specific requests for information that we needed. They have met all of our requests unfailingly, pleasantly, and quickly. Another major group of folks that worked largely behind the scenes, and essentially anonymously as far as we on the Team were concerned, were persons on the National Forests who compiled and mapped habitat information for us in electronic form. We have all learned much from this exercise, which should result in significant improvements in the way habitat information is collected, classified, and stored in the future. Many others operated behind the scenes to implement data summaries, analyses, and syntheses, particularly at the Pacific Southwest Research Station's Redwood Sciences Laboratory in Arcata and Forestry Sciences Laboratory in Fresno. And a special thanks to folks in the California Department of Forestry's Forest and Range Resources Assessment Program, whose willing applications of their geographic information system made possible the mapping of all known California spotted owl sites and an assessment of high, medium, and low likelihoods of owls in riparian/hardwood forests in the Sierran foothills and Coast Ranges. The administrative side of the Team's operation was made possible largely through the Regional Office of the Forest Service in San Francisco, which covered nearly all of the costs, and the Pacific Southwest Research Station in Albany, California. We were blessed by the wisdom of a couple folks in the Regional Office who saw and met a need to provide us with "scissors" to cut through the red tape that occasionally threatened to bring our progress to a temporary halt. vi Technical Coordinators: Jared Verner, Kevin S. McKelvey, Barry R. Noon, R. J. Gutiérrez, Gordon I. Gould, Jr., Thomas W. Beck USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-133. 1992.