THIS D O C U M E N T IS T H E PROPERTY OF HIS BRITANN5C MAJESTY'S G O V E R N M E N T
Printed
for
the Cabinet.
October
1947
The circulation of this paper has been strictly limited.
for the personal use
236
It is issued
of...
fOP S E C R E T .
Copy No. 3 2
CP. ( 4 7 ) 2 8 3
Wh October,
1947
CABINET
X
DOLLAR
P R O G R A M M E
I N . 1948
N O T E B Y THE CHANCELLOR OF THE E X C H E Q U E R AND THE M I N I S T E R FOR
ECONOMIC A F F A I R S
T H E a t t a c h e d p a p e r , w h i c h h a s been p r e p a r e d j o i n t l y by o u r a d v i s e r s , is
circulated for e a r l y c o n s i d e r a t i o n by t h e C a b i n e t .
T h e facts w h i c h i t reveals a r e
very serious i n d e e d a n d w e feel t h a t t h e n e c e s s a r y decisions s h o u l d be t a k e n a n d
put i n t o effect a t t h e e a r l i e s t possible m o m e n t .
H. D.
R.
Great
George
l&h
34361A
Street,
October,
S.W.
1947.
1,
S. C.
HIS D O C U M E N T IS T H E PROPERTY OF
THE
1948
HIS BRITANNIC MAJESTY'S
DOLLAR
GOVERNMENT
PROGRAMME
1. T h e first d e t a i l e d assessment of t h e dollar d r a i n i n t h e full y e a r 1 9 4 8
is so serious t h a t i t should be b r o u g h t a t once to the a t t e n t i o n of M i n i s t e r s .
2. A t 3 0 t h S e p t e m b e r , o u r g o l d a n d dollar reserves w e r e £ 5 8 6 m i l l i o n
( £ 5 6 0 m i l l i o n gold a n d £ 2 6 m i l l i o n U n i t e d S t a t e s a n d C a n a d i a n d o l l a r s ) p l u s
£ 1 0 1 m i l l i o n erf u n u s e d C a n a d i a n C r e d i t . I n t h e l a s t s i x weeks, w e h a v e lost
£ 1 7 m i l l i o n a w e e k ; t h i s is half t h e r a t e i n t h e two m o n t h s before t h e s u s p e n s i o n
of c o n v e r t i b i l i t y , a n d w e e x p e c t t h e r a t e of d r a i n t o fall f u r t h e r a s t h e effects
of t h e s t o p - b u y i n g - f o o d policy a r e felt. B u t by the e n d of t h e y e a r , even a f t e r
d r a w i n g a f u r t h e r £ 4 8 m i l l i o n f r o m I M P . a n d w i t h s u b s t a n t i a l gold r e c e i p t s
f r o m S o u t h A f r i c a , o u r reserves w i l l h a v e fallen to £ 5 0 0 m i l l i o n p l u s £ 6 5 m i l l i o n
of u n u s e d C a n a d i a n C r e d i t .
The Drain on our Reserves
...
3. I n 1948, o n t h e i m p o r t r e q u i r e m e n t s n o w s u b m i t t e d by D e p a r t m e n t s , t h e
d o l l a r d r a i n is e s t i m a t e d as follows :^—
1st Half
2nd Half
Total
'
1948
1948
1948
(£m.)
(£m.)
(im.)
U n i t e d K i n g d o m deficit w i t h A m e r i c a n
Continent ...
...
...
232
226
458
United Kingdom and sterling area pay­
m e n t s of gold a n d d o l l a r s t o n o n ­
American world
10
10
20( )
R e s t of s t e r l i n g a r e a (except S o u t h A f r i c a )
.
.
deficit w i t h A m e r i c a n , C o n t i n e n t
...
44
44
88( )
U n i t e d K i n g d o m gold r e c e i p t s f r o m s t e r l i n g
a r e a ( i n c l u d i n g S o u t h A f r i c a n gold l o a n )
-j-45
-)-45
-f90( )
;
a
6
c
T o t a l gold a n d dollar d r a i n ...
(") See paragraph 15 below.
...
(*) See paragraph 16 below.
241
235
476
c
( ) See paragraph .17 below.
4. O n t h i s s h o w i n g , o u r reserves, i n c l u d i n g t h e C a n a d i a n C r e d i t , w i l l h a v e
fallen to £ 3 2 5 m i l l i o n by J u n e 1948 a n d £ 9 0 m i l l i o n by t h e e n d of 1948.
5.
T h e r e a r e t w o possible resources i n s i g h t t o s t r e n g t h e n t h e p o s i t i o n : —
(i) W e m a y be able t o d r a w a f u r t h e r £ 8 0 m i l l i o n from I . M . F . i n 1948
— b u t t h i s , of course, r e q u i r e s t h e a p p r o v a l of I . M . F . , o n w h i c h t h e
A m e r i c a n s h a v e a decisive voice.
. (ii) T h e A m e r i c a n s m a y release t h e £ 1 0 0 m i l l i o n frozen C r e d i t .
6. I f b o t h of these w e r e o b t a i n e d , o u r reserves at t h e e n d of 1948 w o u l d
be £ 2 7 0 million, o r s l i g h t l y above t h e rock-bottom m i n i m u m . B u t t h e c r i t i c a l
n a t u r e of t h e s i t u a t i o n lies in t h e r a t e of d r a i n r a t h e r t h a n i n t h e a b s o l u t e level
of reserves a t a n y p a r t i c u l a r m o m e n t . A s o u r reserves r u n down, confidence
is r a p i d l y destroyed, a n d a p o i n t i s r e a c h e d a t w h i c h w e c a n n o t b u y a n y t h i n g
a n y w h e r e e x c e p t i n e x c h a n g e for gold or essential s u p p l i e s . T h e significant f a c t
a b o u t t h e t a b l e in p a r a g r a p h 3 is t h a t we shall not be within sight of dollar!
equilibrium
by the end of 1 9 4 8 ; t h e d r a i n i n the second h a l f - y e a r w i l l be as.
b i g as t h a t of t h e first h a l f ; t h e reserves a t t h e e n d of t h e y e a r , even on f a v o u r a b l e
34361
B
a v o i d i n g c a t a s t r o p h e i n t h e p e r i o d of y e a r s w h i c h m u s t e l a p s e b e f o r e w o r l d
recovery a n d l o n g - t e r m m e a s u r e s ( s u c h a s colonial d e v e l o p m e n t ) c a n ease o u r
position.
14. T h e m a i n s o u r c e of loss of gold a n d d o l l a r s i s t h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m
deficit w i t h t h e A m e r i c a n C o n t i n e n t . T h e o t h e r sources s h o w n i n t h e t a b l e i n
p a r a g r a p h 3 , h o w e v e r , a r e also v e r y r e l e v a n t .
15. I n t h e t a b l e , t h e gold a n d d o l l a r d r a i n i n r e s p e c t of t h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m
a n d s t e r l i n g . a r e a t r a n s a c t i o n s w i t h t h e n o n - A m e r i c a n w o r l d h a s been p u t i n a t
£ 1 0 m i l l i o n p e r h a l f r y e a r ; i n t h e p a s t s i x m o n t h s , i t is e s t i m a t e d a t a n e t figure of
£ 4 7 m i l l i o n . * O u r b a l a n c e of p a y m e n t s e s t i m a t e s in t h e a p p e n d e d t a b l e s show
t h a t the U n i t e d K i n g d o m will have a surplus w i t h t h e non-American, non­
s t e r l i n g w o r l d i n 1948 p r o v i d e d t h a t t h e e x p o r t d r i v e succeeds. E v e r y effort m u s t
t h e r e f o r e be m a d e t o p a y w i t h goods f o r t h e e s s e n t i a l s u p p l i e s w e n e e d t o d r a w
f r o m t h e s e c o u n t r i e s . B u t t h e r e a r e some c o u n t r i e s w i t h w h i c h - t h e s t e r l i n g a r e a
a s a w h o l e i s l i k e l y to be i n deficit—e.g., S w e d e n , P o r t u g a l , P e r s i a , B e l g i u m —
a n d t o w h i c h w e s h a l l p r o b a b l y h a v e t o p a y some g o l d or d o l l a r s . T h e O v e r s e a s
Negotiations Committee will have t o conduct our negotiations in a way, which
l i m i t s o u r g o l d a n d d o l l a r c o m m i t m e n t s to t h e £ 1 0 m i l l i o n level, a n d i m p o r t c u t s
f r o m s p e c i a l l y difficult sources w i l l h a v e t o be m a d e a s n e c e s s a r y i n o r d e r to achieve
t h i s . A f u r t h e r p a p e r w i l l be s u b m i t t e d on o u r i m p o r t arid e x p o r t policy i n 1 9 4 8
t o w a r d s t h e n o n - d o l l a r sectors of t h e w o r l d .
16. T h e d o l l a r d r a i n o n a c c o u n t of t h e r e s t of t h e s t e r l i n g a r e a ' s deficit w i t h
t h e A m e r i c a n C o n t i n e n t h a s been e s t i m a t e d i n t h e l i g h t of t h e d i s c u s s i o n s of t h e
S t e r l i n g A r e a C o n f e r e n c e . I n t h e p a s t six m o n t h s , t h i s d r a i n ( e x c l u d i n g S o u t h
A f r i c a , f o r Which s p e c i a l a r r a n g e m e n t s h a v e now been m a d e ) w a s £ 1 2 0 m i l l i o n ;
f o r e a c h h a l f of 1948, i t is p u t a t £ 4 4 m i l l i o n . I t w o u l d be e n t i r e l y u n r e a l i s t i c
t o p l a n o n a l o w e r figure t h a n t h i s ; t o l i m i t t h e d r a i n to t h i s figure w i l l r e q u i r e
r e a t c o - o p e r a t i o n a n d sacrifice, b y t h e s t e r l i n g a r e a c o u n t r i e s , a n d s t r o n g e x p o r t s
y u s t o r e p l a c e d o l l a r i m p o r t s i n t o t h e s e c o u n t r i e s . W e shall, n o d o u b t , be con­
f r o n t e d by p r e s s i n g d e m a n d s f r o m I n d i a a n d P a k i s t a n , i n p a r t i c u l a r ; t h e figures
i n c l u d e d on t h e i r a c c o u n t h e r e a s s u m e t h a t t h e y w i l l be a b l e t o g e t s u b s t a n t i a l
a s s i s t a n c e f r o m I . M . F . , &c. I t w i l l b e i m p o s s i b l e t o achieve t h i s r e d u c t i o n in
t h e r e s t of t h e s t e r l i n g a r e a deficit u n l e s s s t r e n u o u s efforts a r e m a d e t o i n c r e a s e t h e
s t e r l i n g a r e a ' s d o l l a r income, a n d p a r t i c u l a r l y t h a t of t h e Colonies. I t w o u l d be
m o s t i m p r u d e n t to rely u p o n a s m a l l e r deficit t h a n t h a t s h o w n h e r e ; o u r r e s e r v e s
a r e t h o s e of t h e s t e r l i n g a r e a c o u n t r i e s a s w e l l as of o u r s e l v e s , a n d u n l e s s w e a r e
p r e p a r e d to sever o u r financial c o n n e c t i o n w i t h t h e m ( a n d t o lose v a l u a b l e s u p p l i e s
f r o m t h e m b e c a u s e of t h e i r i n a b i l i t y to p r o d u c e f o r l a c k of e s s e n t i a l d o l l a r
s u p p l i e s ) w e m u s t be r e a d y t o m e e t a b i l l of t h i s size.
t
17. T h e e s t i m a t e of gold r e c e i p t s in 1948 i n c l u d e s t h e £ 8 0 m i l l i o n l o a n
f r o m S o u t h A f r i c a . I n s u b s e q u e n t y e a r s , w e m a y h o p e to e a r n a s u b s t a n t i a l
a m o u n t of gold, f r o m S o u t h A f r i c a ; a r r a n g e m e n t s h a v e n o w been m a d e by w h i c h
w e s h a l l n o t lose d o l l a r s o n a c c o u n t of S o u t h A f r i c a ' s deficit w i t h t h e r e s t of
the world.
Dollar Imports
and
Exports
18. T h e f o l l o w i n g is t h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m e s t i m a t e d b a l a n c e of p a y m e n t s
with the American Continent (including Philippines and J a p a n )
1st half
1948
(£m.)
Imports—
Food and agriculture
R a w m a t e r i a l s .,.
Petroleum
...;
Machinery
...
Other manufactured
Tobacco
. . . ;F i l m s ...
...
...
...
goods
...
138
103
33 i
18
: '8,
11
4
315
.
2nd half
1948
(£m)
Total
1948
(£m)
(Total
from
all sources)
(,4m.)
128
118
32
16
T
20
4
266
221
65
34
15
31
8
(813)
(620)
(104)
' (45)
(85)
(39)
(8)
640
(1,714)
325
'
* Belgium 44, Switzerland 14, Denmark 8, Italy 4, other losses 12, France (4-) 28,
other gains (4-.) 7;
2nd half
1948
(£m.)
27
Total
1948
(£m.)
5.0
.
338
352
690
(1,833)
...
. 106
124
'' '
230
2 . -..
(1,553)
(128)
126
232
(1,681)
226
458.
Overseas Government e x p e n d i t u r e *
Total payments
...
Exports and re-exports
O t h e r n e t income
;
...
(Total
from
all sources)
(£m.)
;
(119)
1498
(£m.)
23
itM
. . . . . . . . .
Total receipts
...
...
...
106
Deficit
...
...
...
232
:
'
(152)
* I n c l u d i n g G o v e r n m e n t c o m m o d i t y operations.
19. T h e s e r e q u i r e m e n t s f r o m d o l l a r s o u r c e s a r e f r a m e d a f t e r p r o v i d i n g
m a x i m u m s u p p l i e s f r o m t h e n o n - d o l l a r w o r l d , a n d p a r t i c u l a r l y f r o m t h e Colonies.
T h e y are on t h e following bases :—
Food.—The
import p r o g r a m m e as a whole would provide a somewhat
h i g h e r c o n s u m p t i o n levef t h a n t h a t n o w ruling—-more flour, a I s . 2d. m e a t
r a t i o n , a 3-oz. b a c o n r a t i o n for m o s t of t h e year, m o r e t e a , t h e same s u g a r
a n d f a t s , m o r e shell b u t less d r i e d e g g s , a n d m o r e fresh f r u i t ; on t h e o t h e r
h a n d , t h e cheese r a t i o n w o u l d h a v e to f a l l t o 1 oz. for p a r t of t h e y e a r , a n d
t h e r e w o u l d be less p o i n t s f o o d s — c a n n e d m e a t , c a n n e d fish, d r i e d f r u i t , &c.
. A l l t h e s u p p l i e s from t h e A m e r i c a n C o n t i n e n t ( a p a r t f r o m feeding-stuffs
a n d linseed) r e p r e s e n t l o n g - t e r m c o n t r a c t s , t o w h i c h w e a r e a l r e a d y com­
m i t t e d , a n d n o p r o v i s i o n is m a d e for n e w p u r c h a s e s ; t h e i m p o r t a n t i t e m s
a p a r t f r o m cereals, feeding-stuffs a n d linseed a r e C a r i b b e a n s u g a r
(£17 million), A r g e n t i n e a n d other L a t i n A m e r i c a n m e a t ( £ 5 3 million),
C a n a d i a n bacon ( £ 2 5 m i l l i o n ) , C a n a d i a n cheese a n d eggs ( £ 1 3 m i l l i o n ) . T h e
p r o g r a m m e i n f a c t a s s u m e s c o n t i n u a t i o n t h r o u g h 1948 of t h e " s t o p b u y i n g "
o r d e r of l a s t A u g u s t , b u t s u c h a l a r g e p a r t of t h e p r o g r a m m e is on l o n g - t e r m
c o n t r a c t t h a t t h i s i s v e r y slow t o become effective.
.
Raw Materials.—The
p r o g r a m m e i n g e n e r a l p r o v i d e s for t h e o p e r a t i o n
of c o n s u m i n g i n d u s t r i e s to c a p a c i t y , e x c e p t w h e r e a v a i l a b i l i t y is l i m i t e d
o r w h e r e t h e a p p l i c a t i o n to t h e c o n s u m i n g i n d u s t r i e s of s t r i c t a u s t e r i t y i n
t h e h o m e m a r k e t p l u s f u l l s u p p l i e s for e x p o r t does n o t r e q u i r e o p e r a t i o n to
c a p a c i t y , i n w h i c h case a p p r o p r i a t e c u t s h a v e been m a d e .
The timber
p r o g r a m m e i s d e s i g n e d t o m a i n t a i n p r e s e n t allocations.
Petroleum.—-The
p r o g r a m m e assumes no basic r a t i o n a n d continuing
r e s t r i c t i o n s , b u t is h e a v i l y i n c r e a s e d , p a r t l y because of m u c h h i g h e r p r i c e s
a n d p a r t l y b e c a u s e of t h e n e e d s of t h e o i l conversion p r o g r a m m e .
Manufactured
Goods.—Importation
of m a c h i n e r y i s p r o v i d e d on t h e
a s s u m p t i o n t h a t licences a r e issued freely if t h e m a c h i n e c a n n o t be s u p p l i e d
from U n i t e d K i n g d o m p r o d u c t i o n i n c o m p a r a b l e t i m e ; i m p o r t of o t h e r
m a n u f a c t u r e d g o o d s f r o m t h e A m e r i c a n C o n t i n e n t is l i m i t e d t o a b s o l u t e
essentials plus token imports.
Tobacco.—Assumes
25 p e r cent, c u t i n t h e p r e - B u d g e t level of
consumption.
Films.—-Assumes
present duty continues.
Overseas
Government
Expenditure.—The
m a i n e l e m e n t s in the t o t a l
of £ 5 0 m i l l i o n a r e t h e m i l i t a r y e x p e n d i t u r e ( £ 1 6 m i l l i o n , m a i n l y oil, food,
s p a r e s f o r t r u c k s a n d a i r c r a f t ) ; c o m m o d i t y o p e r a t i o n s , such as p u r c h a s e
of w h e a t for Colonies ( £ 2 8 m i l l i o n ) — d o l l a r p u r c h a s e s for w h i c h w e g e t
repaid i n sterling; United Nations, International Refugee Organisation,
a d m i n i s t r a t i v e a n d d i p l o m a t i c e x p e n d i t u r e , &c. No allowance
is made for
dollar expenditure
for Germany
in 1948. T h e m i l i t a r y figures h a v e n o t yet
been a d j u s t e d f o r t h e l a t e s t c u t s i n t h e size of t h e Services, a n d t h e o t h e r
i t e m s h a v e n o t y e t been e x a m i n e d i n d e t a i l by t h e E x c h a n g e R e q u i r e m e n t s
Committee.
Exports
and re-exports.—These
a r e e s t i m a t e s of r e c e i p t s a r i s i n g f r o m
exports t o the American Continent according to the export t a r g e t programme
( a d j u s t e d for t h r e e m o n t h s ' t i m e - l a g b e t w e e n s h i p m e n t a n d p a y m e n t ) . T h e y ,
a r e c o n s e r v a t i v e , for (a) t h e y p r o v i d e for -a t o t a l e x p o r t a v e r a g i n g 140 p e r
cent, of 1938 volume i n t h e second h a l f of 1948, w h e r e a s if t h e ' full t a r g e t s
w e r e r e a c h e d t h e a v e r a g e i n t h e second h a l f w o u l d be 145 p e r cent., a n d
(b) t h e y a s s u m e t h e e x i s t i n g p a t t e r n of e x p o r t s b e t w e e n t h e v a r i o u s m a r k e t s ;
z.e., t h e y i m p l y t h a t e x p o r t s t o t h e A m e r i c a n C o n t i n e n t i n c r e a s e a t a b o u t
t h e s a m e r a t e as t h e e x p a n s i o n of e x p o r t s , g e n e r a l l y if t h e t a r g e t s a r e achieved.
20.
T h e a i m i s to r e d u c e t h i s deficit of £ 4 5 8 m i l l i o n by £ 1 7 5 m i l l i o n .
2 1 . T h e first necessity is maximum
development
of exports to the
American
^Continent.
I t i s clear f r o m t h e b a l a n c e of p a y m e n t s t a b l e s t h a t if w e g e t
a n y w h e r e n e a r t h e t o t a l e x p o r t t a r g e t w e s h a l l h a v e p l e n t y of e x p o r t s t o cover
o u r i m p o r t s f r o m t h e r e s t of t h e w o r l d . E v e r y t h i n g possible m u s t be done t o
p r o d u c e t h e m a x i m u m o u t p u t of goods w h i c h t h e A m e r i c a n C o n t i n e n t w i l l t a k e ,
a n d t o sell t h e m t h e r e . T h i s m a y b e h e l p e d as C a n a d a a n d o t h e r c o u n t r i e s a r e
f o r c e d for l a c k of d o l l a r s t o c u t d o w n t h e i r i m p o r t s f r o m U n i t e d S t a t e s , a n d
replace them w i t h imports from U n i t e d Kingdom.
O n t h e B o a r d of T r a d e ' s
c a l c u l a t i o n of t h e effect of m a x i m u m d i v e r s i o n , ' w h i c h i m p l i e s d o u b l i n g o u r e x p o r t s
t o U n i t e d S t a t e s a n d C a n a d a i n t h e n e x t y e a r , w e could h o p e t o e a r n £ 1 0 m i l l i o n
m o r e i n t h e first h a l f of 1948 a n d £ 3 5 m i l l i o n m o r e i n t h e second h a l f of 1 9 4 8 ­
£ 4 5 million in all.
2 2 . Secondly, i t s h o u l d b e possible t o s e c u r e s a v i n g s of £ 1 0 m i l l i o n i n
overseas Government
expenditure
below t h e e s t i m a t e s h o w n h e r e . M u c h of t h i s
s h o u l d flow a u t o m a t i c a l l y f r o m t h e S e r v i c e r e d u c t i o n s a l r e a d y d e c i d e d u p o n ,
a n d S e r v i c e food a n d p e t r o l r e q u i r e s s p e c i a l e x a m i n a t i o n i n v i e w of t h e sacrifices
b e i n g a s k e d f r o m t h e c i v i l i a n p o p u l a t i o n . T h e r e s t of t h e field h a s n o t y e t been
fully e x a m i n e d b y t h e E x c h a n g e R e q u i r e m e n t s C o m m i t t e e , a n d s i g n i f i c a n t reduc­
t i o n s s h o u l d be possible. I n p a r t i c u l a r , o u r l a r g e d o l l a r p u r c h a s e s on behalf
of Colonies a n d o t h e r c o u n t r i e s m u s t be e x a m i n e d w i t h g r e a t c a r e . I t m u s t b e
e m p h a s i s e d t h a t w e h a v e t a k e n n o a c c o u n t of a n y d o l l a r e x p e n d i t u r e o n G e r m a n y
i n 1948.
, 2 3 . T h i r d l y , p r o v i d e d t h a t t h e 2 5 p e r cent, c u t i n tobacco c o n s u m p t i o n is
achieved, a n d t a k i n g into account f u r t h e r cuts in Service requirements, a n d
m a k i n g full u s e of stocks, it s h o u l d b e possible t o r e d u c e t h e p u r c h a s e t o be m a d e
f r o m n e x t y e a r ' s U n i t e d S t a t e s a u c t i o n s below t h e . l e v e l i n d i c a t e d above, a n d
this m i g h t yield £ 3 million.
24. F o u r t h l y , a s u b s t a n t i a l r e d u c t i o n c a n b e m a d e i n t h e
petroleum
programme
as s e t o u t above, i n o r d e r t o m a k e q u i t e c e r t a i n t h a t no p e t r o l e u m
p r o d u c t s a r e p r o c u r e d i n a d v a n c e of r e a l need. T h e w h o l e s a v i n g s w h i c h a r e
m a d e f r o m t h e t o t a l p r o g r a m m e of £ 1 0 4 m i l l i o n w i l l a c c r u e i n d o l l a r s .
The
p r o g r a m m e c a n be r e d u c e d t o £ 9 5 m i l l i o n , g i v i n g a s a v i n g of £ 9 m i l l i o n i n
d o l l a r s , w i t h o u t i n t e r f e r e n c e w i t h t h e e s s e n t i a l n e e d s of i n d u s t r y a n d t r a n s p o r t .
F u r t h e r s a v i n g w o u l d b e possible o n l y a t t h e e x p e n s e of t h e o i l / c o a l conversion
p r o g r a m m e . T w o further problems arise in the petroleum p r o g r a m m e ; the extent
t o w h i c h o v e r s e a s m a r k e t s s h o u l d b e s u p p l i e d w i t h o i l w h i c h costs u s d o l l a r s ,
a n d t h e oil c o m p a n i e s ' c a p i t a l d e v e l o p m e n t p r o g r a m m e , w h i c h , t h o u g h v e r y
profitable i n t e r m s of f o r e i g n e x c h a n g e i n t h e l o n g r u n ( r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e o n l y
m e a n s of f r e e i n g u s f r o m d o l l a r oil e x p e n d i t u r e ) is h i g h l y costly i n steel a n d
d o l l a r s i n t h e p e r i o d of d e v e l o p m e n t . T h e first of t h e s e is n o w b e i n g e x a m i n e d ;
t h e second w i l l s h o r t l y be b e f o r e t h e Official Oil C o m m i t t e e , a n d e a r l y decisions
a r e necessary.
25. F i f t h l y , it i s p r o p o s e d t h a t a s a v i n g of £ 8 m i l l i o n s h o u l d be s o u g h t i n
t h e manufactured
goods programme,
a n d p a r t i c u l a r l y i n machinery.
I n semi­
m a n u f a c t u r e s a n d c o n s u m e r goods t h e r e is l i t l e scope for f u r t h e r economy, for
t h e s e r e q u i r e m e n t s a r e very c a r e f u l l y screened, a n d a p a r t f r o m c e r t a i n cases
(e.g., books a n d p e r i o d i c a l s ) t h e r e i s l i t t l e room for f u r t h e r c u t t i n g / I n m a c h i n e r y ;
h o w e v e r , d o l l a r s h a v e been p r o v i d e d f a i r l y freely, a n d t h e p r o g r a m m e should
be r e - e x a m i n e d i n o r d e r to c u t o u t m a c h i n e s w h i c h a r e r e q u i r e d for less e s s e n t i a l
p u r p o s e s . I n t h e e n t i r e m a c h i n e r y a n d e q u i p m e n t field ( i n c l u d i n g oil e q u i p m e n t
a n d e q u i p m e n t for C o l o n i a l d e v e l o p m e n t ) t h e r e m a y be p r o s p e c t s of o b t a i n i n g a
l o a n from t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l B a n k ; i t is p r o p o s e d t h a t a composite case should be
p r e p a r e d c o v e r i n g a s l a r g e a p a r t of t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s a s possible. A l o a n from
t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l B a n k could n o t be f o r t h c o m i n g m u c h before t h e e n d of 1948,
b u t - i f i t w e r e i n s i g h t i t w o u l d e n a b l e u s to c o n t i n u e e s s e n t i a l dollar-saving;
c a p i t a l p r o j e c t s w h i c h w o u l d o t h e r w i s e h a v e t o be c u r t a i l e d o r a b a n d o n e d for
lack of d o l l a r s .
26. T h i s series of p r o p o s a l s w o u l d seek to save £ 7 5 m i l l i o n . T h e r e r e m a i n s
.;a f u r t h e r £ 1 0 0 ' m i l l i o n t o be saved, f r o m t h e food a n d r a w m a t e r i a l p r o g r a m m e s .
27. A s u b s t a n t i a l cut in t h e raw material programme
w o u l d be a desperate­
l a s t r e s o r t . I t Would a t once r e d u c e production a n d e x p o r t s , Create w i d e s p r e a d
dislocation a n d Unemployment, a n d p r o d u c e t h e m o s t vicious of all t h e d o w n w a r d
s p i r a l s . I f t h e w o r s t comes t o t h e w o r s t i t becomes i n e v i t a b l e , j u s t as i t is n o w
i n F r a n c e . B u t w e c a n n o t h o p e t o fight o u r w a y t h r o u g h by s u c h m e a n s .
28. T o c u t food consumption
b e y o n d a c e r t a i n p o i n t c a n h a v e s i m i l a r effects,
u n l e s s t h e n e e d for i t i s so a p p a r e n t t o e v e r y o n e t h a t i t is a c c e p t e d as i n e v i t a b l e
a n d necessary to national survival. Even in such circumstances, the repercussions
u p o n public health cannot be ignored;
. .
29. S t r i k i n g a b a l a n c e , it is s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e d o l l a r r a w ^ m a t e r i a i f - r e q u i r e ­
m e n t s a s s t a t e d s h o u l d be c u t by £ 2 5 m i l l i o n ; t h i s is e q u i v a l e n t t o 4 p e r c e n t ,
on t h e t o t a l r a w m a t e r i a l i m p o r t s from all sources. T h e a v a i l a b l e s u p p l i e s of
steel f r o m N o r t h A m e r i c a w i l l i n a n y c a s e p r o b a b l y fall s h o r t of r e q u i r e m e n t s
by some £ 1 3 m i l l i o n ; a c u t of some £ 5 m i l l i o n w i l l be n e c e s s a r y i n t h e t i m b e r
p r o g r a m m e ; t h e r e m a i n d e r of t h e £ 2 5 m i l l i o n w i l l h a v e t o b e p r o v i d e d b y a
g e n e r a l p r u n i n g - f o r e x a m p l e , t h e r e is ccope f o r r e d u c t i o n of d o l l a r n o n - f e r r o u s
m e t a l i m p o r t s b y r e s t r i c t i n g e x p o r t s of s e m i - m a n u f a c t u r e s t o c e r t a i n d e s t i n a t i o n s .
I t is p r o p o s e d t h a t t h e C e n t r a l E c o n o m i c P l a n n i n g Staff, i n c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h
t h e D e p a r t m e n t s concerned, s h o u l d d e t e r m i n e t h e best m e a n s of effecting t h e
s a v i n g o n t h e s t a t e d r e q u i r e m e n t s . A c u t i n linseed in t h e M i n i s t r y of F o o d
p r o g r a m m e w o u l d be t a k e n a g a i n s t t h e r a w m a t e r i a l s p r o g r a m m e .
30. W e . t u r n n o w t o t h e food i m p o r t r e q u i r e m e n t s , w h i c h i t is s u g g e s t e d
s h o u l d be c u t b y £ 7 5 m i l l i o n . T h i s o p e r a t i o n is impossible as i t s t a n d s , for all
t h e food p r o v i d e d i n t h i s p r o g r a m m e i s c o m m i t t e d on l o n g - t e r m c o n t r a c t s o f
v a r i o u s d e g r e e s of s a n c t i t y . W h e n a n d i n w h a t w a y these c o n t r a c t s s h o u l d be
b r o k e n is a t a c t i c a l m a t t e r . B u t i t is c l e a r t h a t t h e y will h a v e t o be broken, for
t h e s i m p l e t r u t h is t h a t w e h a v e c o n t r a c t e d f o r m o r e food t h a n w e c a n afford,
a n d i n s p i t e of t h e " s t o p b u y i n g " policy, r a t i o n s could i n c r e a s e i n 1948. T h i s
c o n t r a c t s i t u a t i o n h a s m e a n t , indeed, t h a t t h e h o p e d - f o r c u t of £ 1 2 m i l l i o n a
m o n t h in t h e c u r r e n t y e a r w i l l n o t n e a r l y be a c h i e v e d .
3 1 . T h e r e a r e t h r e e possible m e a n s of s e c u r i n g d o l l a r economy e q u i v a l e n t
to £ 7 5 m i l l i o n : —
(i) T o cancel t h e c o n t r a c t s ; t h i s m u s t c l e a r l y be c o n s i d e r e d as p a r t of
n e g o t i a t i o n s w i t h the c o u n t r i e s c o n c e r n e d ; for t h e s e n e g o t i a t i o n s , i t
is of decisive i m p o r t a n c e t h a t o u r w i l l i n g n e s s to d o w i t h o u t t h e
s u p p l i e s is c l e a r l y u n d e r s t o o d .
(ii) T o s t o r e t h e f o o d i n o r d e r to e n a b l e u s t o s t a y o u t o f t h e m a r k e t l a t e r ;
t h i s i s possible on a significant scale o n l y in s u g a r , c a n n e d m e a t a n d
cheese.
(iii) T o sell t h e food, for d o l l a r s or t h e e q u i v a l e n t (e.g. to sell s u g a r to t h e
U n i t e d States Administration for distribution as winter-help).
l
32. A l l of t h e s e involve i m m e d i a t e a d j u s t m e n t of c o n s u m p t i o n .
The
f o l l o w i n g s t a t e m e n t s h o w s t h e s a v i n g s w h i c h w o u l d be a c h i e v e d u p to t h e e n d
of 1948 if r a t i o n s w e r e r e d u c e d to t h e e x t e n t i n d i c a t e d a t t h e e a r l i e s t possible
date:—
Sugar
...
...
Meat
Other canned meat
Bacon
:,.
...
Cheese ...
...
E g g s (shell a n d d r i e d )
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
£
F r o m 10 oz. t o 8 oz. a n d 2 5 p e r cent.
c u t i n m a n u f a c t u r i n g ...
...
From I s . t o XOd. ( h o l d i n g a t I s .
w o u l d s a v e 16)
...
F u r t h e r reduction in distribution
M a i n t a i n a t 1 oz.
...
...
...
F r o m 2 oz. t o 1 oz. ...
...
...
L i m i t a t i o n of shell egg c o n s u m p t i o n
to 66 a year compared w i t h the
p r e s e n t 58, a n d an e a r l i e r ex­
. h a u s t i o n of d r i e d e g g stocks ...
million
12
38
7
28
5
10
100
O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e r e i s a p o s s i b i l i t y of r e m o v i n g b r e a d r a t i o n i n g some t i m e
d u r i n g this period.
3 3 . T h e s a v i n g of £ 7 5 m i l l i o n s u g g e s t e d i n p a r a g r a p h 3 0 w o u l d be s e c u r e d
f r o m a c o m b i n a t i o n of t h e s e m e a s u r e s . T h i s w o u l d r e p r e s e n t some r e d u c t i o n
In c o n s u m p t i o n below t h e e x i s t i n g level. T h e f o l l o w i n g t a b l e is a p r o v i s i o n a l
c a l c u l a t i o n b y t h e M i n i s t r y of F o o d of t h e n u t r i t i o n a l effect, t a k i n g i n t o a c c o u n t
i n t h e first h a l f of 1948 t h e i m p e n d i n g severe c u t i n p o t a t o c o n s u m p t i o n : Calories per day. .
Full Import
After cut of
Programme.
£75 million.
.'. - S e p t e m b e r
1947
- 1 s t - h a l f 1 9 4 8 ...
2 n d h a l f 1948 ...
.v
2,877
2,815
- 2.650-2,725*
3,010
2,850-2,925*
. P r o t e i n (gr. per day).
Full Import
After cut of
Programme.
£75 million.
82-6
81-7
88-6
1
76-6-77-8*
'83-5-84-7*
-ys i ti:,*rTAccording to t h e selection m a d e tfrorriPthe;Various c u t s listed in p a r a g r a p h 32.
:
34. I f t h e full £ 7 5 m i l l i o n s a v i n g w e r e m a d e , t h e n u t r i t i o n a l p o s i t i o n
in the second half of 1948 w o u l d n o t be w o r s e t h a n i t is n o w , f o r e x t r a food
s u p p l i e s w i l l t h e n be c o m i n g f o r w a r d f r o m t h e n o n - d o l l a r w o r l d . B u t t h e c a l o r i e
i n t a k e in the first half of 1948 w o u l d fall s i g n i f i c a n t l y below t h e 2,800 level w h i c h
t h e M i n i s t r y or Food's technical advisers r e g a r d as the danger-point, and they
w o u l d e x p e c t t h i s , t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e loss of v a r i e t y a n d p a l a t a b i l i t y , a d v e r s e l y
t o affect m o r a l e a n d i n d u s t r i a l efficiency. T h e s e figures m a y be c o m p a r e d w i t h
t h o s e of t h e l a t e r w a r y e a r s , w h e n t h e c a l o r i e i n t a k e w a s a b o u t 3,000 a n d t h e
p r o t e i n i n t a k e 88 gr. a d a y .
35. N e v e r t h e l e s s , w e a r e of t h e opinion, t h a t t h e s e m e a s u r e s m u s t be a c c e p t e d ,
a n d t h a t a d e c i s i o n s h o u l d be t a k e n t o m a k e c u t s o n t h i s s c a l e ; t h e p r a c t i c a l
p o s s i b i l i t i e s , s h o u l d t h e n be e x a m i n e d speedily, i n p a r t i c u l a r t o d e t e r m i n e h o w
f a r t h e s u p p l i e s c a n be resold for d o l l a r s o r t h e e q u i v a l e n t a n d h o w q u i c k l y
t h e v a r i o u s c o n t r a c t s c a n be cancelled or r e d u c e d i n q u a n t i t y .
Conclusion
36. W e h a v e m a d e t h e s e p r o p o s a l s w i t h o u t c o u n t i n g o n A m e r i c a n a i d , o t h e r
t h a n I . M . F . a n d t h e u n f r e e z i n g of t h e £ 1 0 0 m i l l i o n c r e d i t . T h e y a r e t h e
i n d i s p e n s a b l e m i n i m u m for a n y r e a s o n a b l e c h a n c e of g e t t i n g t h r o u g h t h e n e x t
t w o y e a r s w i t h o u t such a i d . B u t t h e m o r e d e t e r m i n e d w e show ourselves to p u l l
t h r o u g h by o u r o w n efforts, t h e m o r e likely we a r e t o g e t a i d .
37. B u t t h e d o l l a r p r o b l e m w i l l n o t e n d for. u s i n 1948, w h e n i n a n y c a s e
w e s h a l l h a v e , m a i n t a i n e d even t h i s r e d u c e d c o n s u m p t i o n level only by i n c u r r i n g
f u r t h e r d e b t t o I . M . F . , t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s G o v e r n m e n t i n r e s p e c t of t h e f r o z e n
credit, and to Canada a n d South Africa.
T h i s p r o g r a m m e is o n l y t h e first
s t e p t o w a r d s d o l l a r e q u i l i b r i u m w h i c h will be a l o n g a n d g r i m p r o c e s s l a s t i n g
several years.
38. I t is necessary t h a t
allay public a l a r m about our
a s o u n d b a s i s for o u r f u r t h e r
countries w i t h which we m u s t
decisions should a t once be t a k e n , b o t h i n o r d e r t o
p o s i t i o n a n d to check t h e d o l l a r d r a i n , a n d t o g i v e
negotiations with the U n i t e d States a n d w i t h other
open negotiations.
39. T h i s p a p e r h a s d e a l t only w i t h t h e d o l l a r p r o g r a m m e . W h e n decisions
h a v e been t a k e n o n t h i s , a f u r t h e r p a p e r w i l l be s u b m i t t e d o n t h e b a l a n c e of
p a y m e n t s a s a whole. T h e m o s t u r g e n t t h i n g i s a c t i o n t o s t o p t h e d o l l a r d r a i n .
TABLE
BALANCE
O F
I
PAYMENTS—1st
HALF
1948
£ million.
American
Continent
(incl. Philippines
and Japan)
Sterling
Area
137-4
Import
Programme—
Food and feeding
stuffs
Seeds and animals ...
R a w materials . . . .
Manufactures
...
Tobacco . . . .
...
Petroleum
Films
...
...
Total
...
Government
ExpenditureGermany
.....
Military (net)
.
Other (net)
Total
...
TOTAL PAYMENTS
Total
165-8
69-8
373 -0(a)
0-4
103-1
25-8
10-6
32-8
4-0
9-0
114-7
3-6
2-6
1-0
77-2
37-8
10-4
295-0
67-2
13-3
314-1
295-7
185-9
813-4(6)
8-1
5-3
6-5
26-7
6-8
^
12-6
21-8
6-5
50-9(6)
-\­ 9-7
13-4
40-0
+
9-2
47-7(6)
'
0
1
50-5(6)
4-0
335-7
861-1(6);
176-7
+ 106-0
+344-5
+260-5
11-6
4 12-9
1-3
4- 2-0
4-5
0-5
Hr 64-6
20-9
+ 42-2
+ 18-4(^)
10-1
+ 73-0
22-2
+ 59-1
...
DEFICIT
-
Total
327-5
TOTAL RECEIPTS
:
Other
...
Exports and Re-exports
(o)
Other Net Income—
Governmentt
Governmen
foo
foodd
purchase
purchasess fo
forr sal
salee
t o thir
thirdd countrie
countriess
Othe
Otherr Governmen
Governmentt
commodity
commodit y opera
opera-­
tions
tion s
Other
Othe r allocate
allocatedd
..
....
Unallocatedd
Unallocate
'
-
+
+711-0
1-0
1-5
+ 95-9
+417-5
+238-3
231-6
+ 81-8
+ 61-6
;NOTES
'
'
+770-1W
91-0(6)(i
;
(a) Includes 1-8 contingency reserve for unprogrammed animal feeding stuffs.
(6) Includes 17-7 oil for civil purposes and 3-5 oU for military purposes from British-controlled sources
(c) Estimates of exports as in Board of Trade letter of 15th September 1947, time-lagged b y three mont
Re-exports: 25 per half year, allocated 0-5 t o American Continent, 4-5 to Sterling Area, and 20 to Othe
(d) Includes oil bunkering, oil adjustments, and errors and omissions.
TABLE
II
BALANCE OF P A Y M E N T S - 2 n d
HALF
1948
£ million
American
Continent
[incl.Philippines
and Japan)
Sterling
Area .
Other
127-4
177-1
110-3
414 -8(a)
0-6
117-6
23-0
20-0
32-1
4-0
10-9
110-2
3-6
5-7
2-9
97-5
36-6
0-1
14-4
325-3
63-2
25-8
53-5(6)
4-0
324-7
307-5
247-4
901-0(6)
8-1
5-6
11-5
28-8
11-1
17-3
13-5
11-5
58-2(6)
3-2
13-7
51-4
3-8
72-9(6)
Import
Programme—
Food and feeding
stuffs
Seeds and animals
R a w materials
Manufactures
Tobacco
Petroleum ...
Films
Total
...
Government
Expenditure—
Germany ...
Military (net)
Other ( n e t . . .
Total
...
338-4
TOTAL P A Y M E N T S
Exports and
II
Re-exports
Other Net Income—
Government
food
purchases for sale
to third countries
Other Government
commodity opera­
tions
Other allocated
Unallocated
+123-5
16-1
+
358-9
251-2
+406-5
+312-0
+
+
2-3
+
1-5
13-8
Total
973-9(6)
+842-0
+
2-5
4­
2-7
+
62-0
19-7
+J45-0
+ 21^8(^)
10-9
+
75-8
15-9
4
+
4-0.
-
Total
70-8
...
+112-6
+482-3
+296-1
225-8
+123-4
-f 44-9
+912^8(^^)
TOTAL RECEIPTS
61-l(6)(i)
DEFICIT
NOTES
.
4
.
(a) Includes 13-8 for unprogrammed animal feeding stuffs.
(6) Includes 21 -4 oil for civil purposes and 4-0 oil for military purposes from British-controlled sources,
(c) Estimates of exports as in Board of Trade letter of 15th September 1947, time-lagged by three months.
Re-exports : 25 per half year, allocated 0-5 to American Continent, .4-5 to Sterling Area, and 20 t o Other.
id) Includes oil bunkering, oil adjustments, and errors and omissions.
TABLE
III
OVERALL B A L A N C E
OF PAYMENTS
Half-Yearly P e r i o d s , J u l y 1947- - D e c e m b e r 1948
/ million
December 1947
Imports (a)—
Food
Feeding stuffs . - ......
Seeds and animals ...
...
R a w materials
Manufactures
. ...
Tobacco
...
Petroleum . . . .
Ships
. ; . . ...
Coal
Films
396-3
13-6
12-6
305-Q
65-4
20-2
40-9
17-0
1-7
7-0
v
f
:
Total
June
340-6
32-4
10-4
295-0
67-2
13-3
50-5
,
' -"Total (net)
TOTAL RECEIPTS
DEFICIT
813-4
901-0
1,714-4
6-5
50-9
+
9-7
11-5
58-2
3-2
47-7 ''
+
1-5
8-2
2-1
+ 12-0
4- 4 - 0
4- 3-0
+
+
+
23-0
-f- 15-0
0-6
21-0
0-4
21-0
4- 31-0
+
11-0
-f- 36-9
-f 59-1
"
-
+842-0
^ 1,553-0
-f
-f-
2-5
-\+
+
3-2
30-0
8-0
21-0
+
+
+
4-0 1-2
15-0
4-0
13-0
.
24-0
;
9-0
36-0
5-4
1,835-0
973-9
2-0
15-0
4-0
8-0
18-0
.
.
18-0
109-1
6-5
120-6
72-9
+711-0
+635-5;
.
861-1
+599-0
-f
;
8-0
975-7
TOTAL PAYMENTS
Other Net Income—
Government
comm o d i t y operations
(net)(*)
Civil Aviation
..;
Shipping
Diamonds
Oil sales to. third
countries, - tankers
a n d equipment
Oil bunkering overseas
Oil i adj ustihents ( / ) . . .
Coal bunkering over: seas tf)
Personal travel
I n t e r e s t profits and
dividends
Other
,;,
715-1
72-7(6)
24-8
620-3
;
130-4
39-1
104-0 .
4-6
96-6
Total
374-5
40-3
14-4
325-3
63-2
25-8
53-5
4-0
879-7
Government
Expenditure—
Germany (c);........
43-3 '-..
60-0 . ' .
Military (net)(d)
...
+
7-3
Other (net) ...
Total
1948
July­ .
December 1948 -,..
1948
i
'
47-0
+ 28-0
+
49-0
0-4
12-0
+ 34-0
+
21-0
70-0
+
10-0
+
21-0
, + 70-8
+
129-9
+770-1
+912-8
+ 1,682-9
91-0
61-1
152-1
339-8
NOTES
(a)
(b)
Europe.
(c)
(d)
(e)
(/)
According to Departmental programmes submitted September 1947.
Includes 16 as contingency reserve against unforeseen availabilities; mainly Russia and Eastern
Includes 28 in dollars in July-December, 1947. Sterling payments only in 1948.
Excludes disposals a n d settlements of war claims b u t includes receipts from sales of surplus storSs.
Food procurement for third countries balances, without loss or gain.
Difference between f.o.b. value and actual cost of sterling oil imported, used in bunkers, &c.
TABLE
IMPORT
IV
PROGRAMMES
I.—Food P r o g r a m m e
'
(£ million) ,.
(a)
W h e a t and flour ...
Animal feeding-stuffs
; ...
Other cereals
Oils and fats
Sugar
... .
Starch, rice, glucose, & c . . . .
Carcase meat
Rabbits and poultry
Bacon and h a m
Other meat and meat products
Fish
Canned fish ...
....
Butter, cheese, processed milk
Eggs (shell and processed)
Fruit and vegetables
Tea, coffee, cocoa ...
...
Miscellaneous
...
...
Total...
TOTAL
1st Half
1.947
51-9
16-9
3-7
35-4
... . 25-9
2-4
40-6
5-5
11-3
17 0
7-8
7-7
44-8
24-5
55-5
33*2
13-0
2nd Half
1947
50-3
13-6
4-0
55-3
23-6
1-5
38-8
6-5
12-4
22-5
8-5
6-4
42-9
21-8
39-8
34-8
27-2
1st Half v
1948
42-4
. 30-6
4-8
41-8
20-0
3-8
32-3
2-5
18-5 .
13-3
8-3
2-9
40-3
12-7
38-8
37-8
20-4
...
409-9
371-2
401-2
2nd Half
1948
63-0
7-9
6-9
15-1
11-9
13-1
. 4-3
4-7
0-3
Year
1948
125-6
21-1
; 17-1
32-6
20-8
26-0
4-3
9-0
4-6
127-2
261-1
397-2
(b) W E S T E R N H E M I S P H E R E
Wheat, flour, feeding-stuffs
Oils and fats
...
...
Sugar
...
Carcase meat
...
...
Other meat products
Bacon and h a m
...
...
Cheese and processed milk
Eggs (shell and processed)
Miscellaneous
...
Total ...
...
...
2nd Half
1948
54-9
26-9
3-8
39-7
17-6
3-5
35-2
6-6
19-2
18-3
7-4
4-6
. 34-5 /
12-1.
60-5
38-3
18-1
SUPPLIES
2nd Half
1947
63-3
25-1
21-2
20-7
171
8-7
12-7
16-2
5-4
1st Half
1948
62-6
13-2
10-2
17-5
8-9
12-9
190-4
133-9
4-3
4-3
II.—Raw Materials P r o g r a m m e
(£ million)
(a)
TOTAL
1st Half
1947
2nd Half
1947
1st Half
1948
2nd Half
1948
Ministry of Supply—
Iron and steel ...
Non-ferrous metals
....
Miscellaneous
... .; ...
12-4
36-1
2-3
13-9
49-2
4-6
34-7
46-6
. 5-0
34-8
49-8
4-3
Board of Trade—
Timber
...
... j . ...
Textiles ...
Paper, pulp, &c.
...
Hides, leather, &c.
Fertilisers
Miscellaneous
...
27-3
82-8
22-2
23-7
5-8
37-9
60^1
76-3
31-8
25-8
5-5
37-6
24-9
95-4
26-4
20-9
4-1
37-0
...
250-5
304-8
295-0
Total ...
; ...
:
47-8
93-0
29-8.
22-7
5-6
37-9
325-7
(b) W E S T E R N
HEMISPHERE
2nd Half
1947
Steel
2-6
Iron and other ores, ferro-alloys,
1-8
&c.
Non-ferrous metals
25-9
Abrasives, &c. ...
1-5
Timber
30-9
Cotton
12-1
Other textile materials ...
4-7 - Paper, pulp, &c.
...
6-7
Hides.-skins, &c. - ...
9-7
Other materials ... ...
16-4
Total...
112-3
1st Half
1948
. 17-9
1-8
2nd Half
1948
17-9
2-1
24-1
1-4
15-5
8-4
4-5
5-7
7-5
16-3
26-1
1-3
16-8
17-9
4-1
6-6
8-2
16-6
103-2
117-7
220-7
1st Half
2nd Half
1948
Year
1948
35-8
3-9
:
.
50*2
2-7
32-3
26-3
8-6
12-3
15-7
32-9
III.-Manufactured Goods Programme
(£ million)
(a)
TOTAL
2nd Half
1947
Machinery—
Ministry of Supply ' ...
Ministry of Agriculture
...
Ministry of Fuel and Power
Goods for
Industry—
Board of Trade
Ministry of Supply
Ministry of Works, &c.
...
.
:..
.
Consumer Goods—
Programme
Token Imports ...
Allowance for bilateral negotiations ...
Imports for re-export
...
...
...
..
...
...
...
Total ...
18-2
3-3
1-7
17-8
2-2
1-8
20-7
23-2
21-8
22-1
3-9
2-3
20-4
4-1
3-7
18-3
4-1
3-8
28-3
28-2
26-2
...
...
...
11-5
1-0
0-5
11-0
1-3
1-0
10-2
1-0
1-0
...
13-0
3-3
13-3
2-5
...
65-3
67-2
62-3
2nd Half
1948
Year
1948
...
...
...
...
...
Goods for
Industry—
Textile yarns and manufactures
Clock-and watch parts;
Drugs
Other
...
...
:
'
10-7i - 5
1-9
1-4
1-8
1-5
9-8
4-4
2-7
3-6
3-0
20-5
34-2
15-9
17-8
16-4
4-7
0-1
0-7
3-3
1-3
0-2
0-9
2-4
0-7
0-2
1-0
2-2
4-8
4-1
8-9
0-3
0-7
0-4
0-3
0-7
0-2
0-2
0-2
0-6
1-4
0-2
0-4
1-6
1-4
1-2
2-6
8-8
Consumer Goods—
'.;
Rubber footwear
Books and periodicals ...
Prefabricated houses
Others
...
...
...
2-5
1-3
1-8
r
12-2
2-1
'
SUPPLIES
1st Half
1948
2nd Half
1947
3-3
1-2
1-5
0-3 .
9-6
1 9 4 8
16-9
3-4
0-4
(6) W E S T E R N H E M I S P H E R E
Machinery—
Agricultural
Textile
Steel plant
Mining
...
Other"
...
:
'
2-0
0-4
1-9
4:6
* -"b
0-3
0-9
IV.—Petroleum P r o g r a m m e
(£ million)
Aviation spirit
Motor spirit ...
White spirit ...
Burning oil
. . . . . .
Vaporising o i l . . .
...
Gas/Diesel oil ...
...
Fuel oil
...
...
...
...
...
...
.1.
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
:
2nd Half
1947
...
0-5
... 14-9
0-3
...
1-0
...
2-6
...
6-3
7-7
Total products ...
Crude oils
...
Lubricating oils
Parafmi wax ...
Total
\
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1st'Half
1948
0-8
15-0
0-4
2-6
3-3
8-7
120
.
2nd Half
1948
0-9
15-0
0-4
2-2
3-3
9-0
14-8
33-3
42-8
45-6
3-1
3-5
1-1
3-1
3-5
1-0
3-2
3-6
1-0
40-9
50-5
53-4