22
S DOCUMENT I S THE PROPERTY OP HIS BRITANNIC MAJESTY'S GOVERNMENT)
S E C R E T
COPY NO. C P . (U7l
295
(
POTH OCTOBER. 19U7 CABINET
POTATO SUPPLIES
MejaQrcndum by t h e M i n i s t e r - of Pood
Tho l a t e s t e s t i m a t e s of p o t a t o s u p p l i e s f o r t h i s y e a r
show t h a t u n l e s s we t a k e immediate s t e p s , t o r e d u c e t h e p o t a t o
c o n s u m p t i o n by n e a r l y one h a l f (from 5ir l b . p e r h e a d . p e r week
t o 3'4 l b . - p e r h e a d p e r week) w e ' s h a l l run. o u t of s u p p l i e s many
weeks b e f o r e t h e n e x t c r o p i s a v a i l a b l e .
A f u l l note setting
o u t the supply p o s i t i o n , the a c t i o n which I have a l r e a d y taken
t o c o n s e r v e s u p p l i e s , and my r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s f o r a n i n d i v i d u a l
a l l o c a t i o n scheme i s a t t a c h e d .
2.
Our c r o p i s down by a b o u t 20 p e r c e n t , o u t l a s t y e a r ' s
c r o p owing t o a c o m b i n a t i o n of r e d u c e d a c r e a g e ( d u e t o bad
w e a t h e r a t t h e p l a n t i n g t i m e ) and low y i e l d (due t o t h e d r y
summer).
As a c o n s e q u e n c e o f t h i s r e d u c e d h a r v e s t , and t h e
f a c t ' t h a t consumption s i n c e June h r s been maintained a t l a s t
y e a r ' s l e v e l , i t i s estimated t h a t there w i l l he only 2,252,000.
t o n s of p o t a t o e s f o r c i v i l i a n consumption i n the n e x t e i g h t
m o n t h s . . L a s t y e a r f o r t h e same p e r i o d we had 3 , 6 1 ( 8 , 0 0 0 t o n s
and! e v e n t h e n t h e r e wore s h o r t a g e s a t t h e end of t h e y e a r . .
3.
T h e r e i s l i t t l e t h a t c a n be done i n G r e a t B r i t a i n t o
s e c u r e more p o t a t o e s f o r c i v i l i a n c o n s u m p t i o n from farms , b u t
t h e r e i s a p o s s i b i l i t y , t h a t vigorous a c t i o n i n Northern. I r e l a n d
may p r o d u c e a n o t h e r 3 0 , 0 0 0 t o 5 0 , 0 0 0 t o n s from l i v e s t o c k f e e d i n g
alone.
:
L\,
T h e r e i s no p r o s p e c t of s u b s t a n t i a l i m p o r t s , .
We may
p o s s i b l y be a b l e t o buy 1 5 0 , 0 0 0 t o n s from n o n - d o l l a r c o u n t r i e s .
Crop, p r o s p e c t s i n N o r t h America a r e p o o r , b u t I am.making c a r e f u l
e n q u i r i e s i n t o t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of o b t a i n i n g , s u p p l i e s t h e r e ,
b u t I f e a r t h e r e i s l i t t l e hope o f o b t a i n i n g e v e n a - m o d e s t
quantity.
5.
T h e r e f o r e foe o n l y way i n w h i c h we c a n c l o s e t h e g a p
o f - 1 , 3 9 6 , 0 0 0 t o n s i s by r e d u c i n g c o n s u m p t i o n .
I t would be
d e s i r a b l e t o do t h i s by a f u l l system of d i f f e r e n t i a l r a t i o n i n g ,
b u t t h e . p r o b l e m of p r o c u r e m e n t , d i s t r i b u t i o n and e n f o r c e m e n t
mrkes t h i s i m p r a c t i c a b l e .
6. .
I cm f o r c e d , t h e r e f o r e , t o .recommend r e l u c t a n t l y t o my
c o l l e a g u e s t h a t we. s h o u l d a d o p t a d i s t r i b u t i o n scheme p r o v i d i n g
f o r a f l a t r a t e a l l o w a n c e p e r head r e c o r d e d by m a r k i n g r a t i o n
books.
7.
I s h o u l d back the- scheme by a p u b l i c i t y c a m p a i g n ,
t e l l i n g p e o p l e why s u c h a d r a s t i c r e d u c t i o n i s n e c e s s a r y i n
t h e i r own i n t e r e s t s , e n c o u r a g i n g r e t a i l e r s t o honour and
c o n s u m e r s t o a c c e p t t h e scheme, d i s c o u r a g i n g w a s t e and a d v i s i n g
h o u s e w i v e s and o t h e r cooks how t o make the b e s t u s e of
available supplies.
8*
A l t h o u g h s u p p l i e s a r e - s u f f i c i e n t f o r an a v e r a g e weekly
r a t e of c o n s u m p t i o n of 3w l b s . p e r head p e r week, a s compared
w i t h p r e s e n t -consumption of 5£ l b . p e r head p e r week, I s h a l l
have to make a l l o w a n c e f o r c o n s u m p t i o n i n s c h o o l s , c a n t e e n s and
catering establishments.
The n e t amount a v a i l a b l e f o r i s s u e
a g a i n s t t h e r a t i o n book w i l l be o n l y 2-g- l b s . p e r he-ad p e r week.
I s h o u l d welcome my c o l l e a g u e s ' v i e w s on w h e t h e r w e s h o u l d aim
a t a f l a t r a t e t h r o u g h o u t t h e y e a r o r w h e t h e r we s h o u l d s t a r t
w i t h an a l l o c a t i o n of 3 l b s . p e r week, and f a c e t h e a l m o s t
c e r t a i n p r o s p e c t of a r e d u c t i o n t o 2 l b s . p e r week i n t h e s p r i n g .
-
9*
I t must be r e c o g n i s e d t h a t t h e scheme p r o p o s e d w i l l
h o t be" a s a t i s f a c t o r y one i n many w a y s .
T h e r e w i l l be no
g u a r a n t e e of s u p p l i e s t o t h e i n d i v i d u a l , no a c c o u n t of v a r y i n g
n u t r i t i o n a l n e e d s , e x c e p t t o some s l i g h t e x t e n t t h r o u g h s u p p l i e s
t o s c h o o l end works c a n t e e n s , and e n f o r c e m e n t w i l l be p r a c t i c a l l y
impossible.
P e o p l e i n c o u n t r y d i s t r i c t s w i l l buy from g r o w e r s ,
and u r b a n h o u s e w i v e s w i l l sometimes f i n d d i f f i c u l t y i n o b t a i n i n g
-the a u t h o r i s e d a l l o w a n c e .
Market p r e s s u r e w i l l p r o b a b l y l e a d
t o c o n d i t i o n a l s a l e s and o t h e r forms of b l a c k m a r k e t i n g .
.10. More s e r i o u s , t h e v e r y s m a l l a l l o w a n c e w h i c h ' m u s t be
f i x e d may mean a c t u a l u n d e r - n o u r i s h r a e n t f o r f a m i l i e s who e a t
more t h a n t h e n a t i o n a l a v e r a g e .
T o t a l average consumption has
to come down from 5^ l b . , t o 3 ^ - l b . p e r head p e r week.
Working
c l a s s f a m i l i e s w i l l g e t a maximum of 2-g- l b . o r 3 l b . p e r head
a g a i n s t t h e i r n o r m a l p u r c h a s e s of h-jr l b .
Middle c l a s s p e o p l e ,
whose d i e t a r y h a b i t s a r e d i f f e r e n t , w i l l - n o t b e so b a d l y h i t .
As a g r o u p , ^ a d o l e s c e n t s w i l l s u f f e r t h e m o s t .
11.
The n u t r i t i o n a l i m p l i c a t i o n s of p o t a t o r a t i o n i n g are­
s e r i o u s and I cm l o o k i n g i n t o t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of s a f e g u a r d i n g
t h e p o s i t i o n of the more v u l n e r a b l e g r o u p s , e s p e c i a l l y
adolescents.
12. T h i s a g r i c u l t u r a l d i s a s t e r makes i t e s s e n t i a l t h a t we
s h o u l d - even t o the -point of o v e r i n s u r a n c e - make s u r e of o u r
s u p p l i e s f o r 1924.8-49.
I t seems i m p e r a t i v e t h e r e f o r e t h a t we
s h o u l d p l a n t a minimum a c r e a g e of 1 , 6 0 0 , 0 0 0 .
13.
I ask my c o l l e a g u e s
­
( a ) t o a u t h o r i s e me- t o i n t r o d u c e t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n
scheme.
( I s h o u l d add that- the need t o r e d u c e . '
- c o n s u m p t i o n . I s - . s o u r g e n t t h a t I have a u t h o r i s e d
- p r e l i m i n a r y d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h t h e t r a d e and o t h e r a
i n t e r e s t s c o n c e r n e d so t h a t we c a n go ahead a s
s o o n as a d e c i s i o n i s r e a c h e d ) ;
(b) t o d e c i d e w h e t h e r t h e i n i t i a l a l l o w a n c e s h o u l d be
2-g- l b . o r 3 l b . ;
( c ) t o i n v i t e t h e M i n i s t e r of A g r i c u l t u r e t o p r o p o s e
m e a s u r e s t h a t - w i l l e n s u r e a minimum a c r e a g e o f
1,600,-000 u n d e r p o t a t o e s , i n 1948/4-9*
J , S.
M i n i s t r y of Pood, S.W. 1 . ,
2 0 t h O c t o b e r , 194 7 .
POT,-,TO SUPPLIES
Proposals for
t
the ^regulation
of
distribution 1.
The l a t e s t e s t i m a t e s "by t h e A g r i c u l t u r a l D e p a r t m e n t s of
p o t a t o s u p p l i e s , w h i c h became a v a i l a b l e d u r i n g t h e l a s t few
d a y s , r e q u i r e t h a t - i m m e d i a t e a c t i o n s h o u l d h e "token t o r e d u c e ,
c o n s u m p t i o n d u r i n g t h e w i n t e r and s p r i n g m o n t h s .
They i m p l y
Q f u r t h e r d e t e r i o r a t i o n in the d e c l i n i n g n u t r i t i o n a l s t a n d a r d s
of t h e U n i t e d Kingdom which can o n l y b e p r e v e n t e d from
b e c o m i n g s e r i o u s i f i m p o r t s of o t h e r f o o d s t u f f s and i n p a r t i c u l a
of c e r e a l s a r e m a i n t a i n e d .
-V'.
upglj
1947-48
\
,;'A;.;
2.
The a r e a p l a n t e d i n t h e U n i t e d Kingdom i n 1946 was a t t h e
r e c o r d f i g u r e of 1 , 4 2 3 , 0 0 0 a c r e s and t h e y i e l d a t 7 . 1 t o n s per
a c r e was n o r m a l .
The same t a r g e t was s e t f o r 1947, b u t owing
t o b a d s p r i n g w e a t h e r t h e a c r e a g e p l a n t e d was 1 , 3 3 0 , 0 0 0 only'/
i . e . a f a l l of o v e r 9 0 , 0 0 0 a c r e s . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e y i e l d t h i s
y e a r i s a t p r e s e n t e s t i m a t e d t o be 6.03 t o n s per a c r e , t h e
l o w e s t s i n c e 1931.After deducting allowances for seed, (1,211,000 tons)
c h a t s ' ( 4 8 1 , 0 0 0 t o n s ) n o r m a l s h r i n k a g e ' w a s t e and c o n s u m p t i o n on
farms
(790,000 tons) p r i o r i t y e x p o r t s , f o r i n s t a n c e t o
G i b r a l t a r and A d m i r a l t y s t a t i o n s ( 2 0 , 0 0 0 t o n s ) p o t a t o powder
f o r use a s on emergency r e s e r v e ( 3 0 , 0 0 0 t o n s ) and S e r v i c e s
r e q u i r e m e n t s ( 9 3 , 0 0 0 t o n s ) a p p r o x i m a t e l y 4 , 4 0 0 , 0 0 0 t o n s were ­
a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e c i v i l i a n m a r k e t i n G r e a t B r i t a i n from t h e
f i r s t l i f t i n g s i n J u n e 1947, t o t h e end of J u n e 1948. By 2 3 r d
N o v e m b e r ' 2 , 2 8 1 , 0 0 0 t o n s of t h i s w i l l have b e e n consumed,. l e a v i n g
2 , 1 7 2 , 0 0 0 t o n s p l u s 8 0 , 0 0 0 t o n s from N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d , f o r
consumption i n t h e f o l l o w i n g 7 i months.
As a r e s u l t o n l y 2 , 2 5 2 , 0 0 0 t o n s of p o t a t o e s w i l l b e
a v a i l a b l e fo.r c i v i l i a n c o n s u m p t i o n i n G r e a t B r i t a i n from t h e
2 3 r d November t o t h e end of t h e s e a s o n .
T h i s compares w i t h
3 , 6 4 8 , 0 0 0 t o n s ( i v e . 0 f a l l of 1 , 3 9 6 , 0 0 0 t o n s ) e s t i m a t e d t o
b e r e q u i r e d t o meet t h e needs, of d o m e s t i c c o n s u m e r s , c a t e r i n g
e s t a b l i s h m e n t s , f i s h f r i e r s a n d " o t h e r u s e r s o v e r t h e same
period;
t h i s f i g u r e of n e e d i s b a s e d on t h e c o n s u m p t i o n of
1 9 4 6 / 4 7 when, i n s p i t e of r e c o r d a c r e a g e and n o r m a l y i e l d , we
had b a r e l y , s u f f i c i e n t f o r our r e q u i r e m e n t s .
T h i s f i g u r e of
2 , 2 3 2 , 0 0 0 t o n s r e p r e s e n t s an o v e r a l l s u p p l y cf a b o u t 3:p l b s .
p e r h e a d p e r week ( o u t o f ' w h i c h s u p p l i e s f o r c a t e r i n g
e s t a b l i s h m e n t s a n d ' . f i s h f r i e r s m u s t b e found) a s compared w i t h .
There are
5-t l b s . a v a i l a b l e - d u r i n g t h e s o m e ' p e r i o d l a s t y e a r .
- p r o s p e c t s of s e c u r i n g some i m p o r t s , b u t t h e y a r e t o o u n c e r t a i n
t o b e c o m . t o d -on,
jorts
I m p o r t s from t h e Channel I s l a n d s may b e e s t i m a t e d a t
3 0 , 0 0 0 t o n s , s u b j e c t however t o t h e c r o p b e i n g r e a s o n a b l y f r e e
from Colorado b e e t l e i n f e s t a t i o n .
European p r o d u c t i o n has
s u f f e r e d s e r i o u s l y from t h e ' r o c e n t d r o u g h t c o n d i t i o n s ;
this,
combined w i t h t h e i n c r e a s e d use of p o t a t o e s f o r f e e d i n g t o
l i v e s t o c k i n n e a r l y a l l c o u n t r i e s , mokes i m p o r t s from t h i s
s o u r c e most u n l i k e l y .
P o l a n d , H o l l a n d , Denmark and Rumania
may a g r e e t o s e l l on f a v o u r a b l e t e r m s and n e g o t i a t i o n s a r e
p r o c e e d i n g , b u t t h e q u a n t i t y c o u l d not p o s s i b l e exceed 100,000
tons.
South A f r i c a a n t i c i p a t e s a s m a l l s u r p l u s t h o u g h t h e
crop i s not yet p l a n t e d .
T h i s s o u r c e may p r o v i d e 2 0 , 0 0 0 t o n s .
A l l t h e f o r e g o i n g s o u r c e s , t h e r e f o r e , cannot g i v e us-more than
150,000 t o n s .
E s t i m a t e s of a c r e a g e i n Canada and t h e M a r i t i m e
P r o v i n c e s show a lOys d e c r e a s e and a d r o p i n " t o t a l p r o d u c t i o n of
approximately 372,000 tons i s a n t i c i p a t e d .
T h i s , however, does
n o t r u l e out t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of o b t a i n i n g s u p p l i e s from Canada,
a s p r o d u c t i o n may s t i l l e x c e e d demand. Answers t o e n q u i r i e s
on t h i s p o i n t a r e a w a i t e d .
L a s t y e a r 7 3 , 0 0 0 t o n s were i m p o r t e d
from t h e d i s e a s e f r e e a r e a , and. i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t t h a t f i g u r e
w i l l be reached t h i s season.
In t h o U n i t e d S t a t e s , p r o d u c t i o n
e s t i m a t e s f o r t h i s s e a s o n show a d r o p of 20$ compared w i t h
19L.6. I n d i c a t i o n s a r e t h a t t h e r e w i l l b e no l a r g e s u r p l u s
a v a i l a b l e f o r e x p o r t and t h a t l a s t s e a s o n s o f f e r a t g i v e ­
away p r i c e s w i l l n o t be r e p e a t e d . In Can ad: and t h e U n i t e d
S t a t e s t h e i n c i d e n c e of b a c t e r i a l r i n g r o t
a d i s e a s e from
w h i c h t h e U n i t e d Kingdom c r o p i s f r e e " - i s a s p e c i a l
c o m p l i c a t i o n f o r i m p o r t s . I f s u b s t a n t i a l s u p p l i e s , s a y , to
t h e e x t e n t of 2 5 0 , 0 0 0 t o n s , p r o v e to b e a v a i l a b l e from Canada
and t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , w h i c h seems h i g h l y u n l i k e l y , i t m i g h t
b e w o r t h w h i l e t o t a k e t h e r i s k of r i n g r o t .
f
Current
?nd
pros p e c t i v e
Jemulation
f market­
ong.
3.
I n . a n t i c i p a t i o n of t h e p o s s i b l e s h o r t a g e l a t e r i n t h e
y e a r , r e s t r i c t i o n s on m a r k e t i n g - h a v e b e e n i n f o r c e from t h e
commencement of t h e I9J4.7 s e a s o n , f i r s t i n t h e form of
p r o h i b i t i o n s of m a r k e t i n g of s e c o n d e a r l y and main c r o p
v a r i e t i e s and s u b s e q u e n t l y on s a l e s of b e t t e r k e e p i n g main
crop v a r i e t i e s .
These r e s t r i c t i o n s p r o h i b i t e d t h e s a l e of
a p p r o x i m a t e l y h a l f our r e m a i n i n g s t o c k s , b u t w e r e n o t
p r e v e n t i n g t h e m a r k e t i n g of h e a v i e r t h a n n o r m a l s u p p l i e s , of
uncontrolled varieties^
Prom t h o 2 0 t h O c t o b e r t h e y hove been
e x t e n d e d t o a d d i t i o n a l v a r i e t i e s and r a i l movement i n t o c e r t a i n
h e a v y consuming a r e a s , n o t a b l y London and L a n c a s h i r e , has been
p r o h i b i t e d e x c e p t u n d e r c o n t r o l of t h e M i n i s t r y of Pood and
b y means of M i n i s t r y p u r c h a s e . A l l r a i l movements from
S c o t l a n d , a d e f i c i e n c y a r e a , i n t o E n g l a n d and W a l e s a r e
prohibited.
The i n t e n t i o n of t h e s e m e a s u r e s i s t o r e s t r i c t
t h e run-down of s t o c k s p e n d i n g t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n of a f u l l e r
scheme of c o n t r o l ;
t h e y a r e m e r e l y emergency and s t o p - g a p
arrangements which, unless q u i c k l y supported by o t h e r a c t i o n ,
would l e a d t o g r a v e i n e q u a l i t i e s i n d i s t r i b u t i o n .
The s a l e o f any p o t a t o e s f o r s t o c k f e e d i n g i s a l r e a d y
P r e v e n t i on
if diversion p r o h i b i t e d u n l e s s a l i c e n c e i s o b t a i n e d b y t h e grower, and i t
;o s t o c k ­
i s a l s o an o f f e n c e f o r a grower t o use w a r e o r s e e d p o t a t o e s
f
o r f e e d i n g t o s t o c k . Tjhere i s . l i t t l e d i v e r s i o n from farms of
feeding
sound p o t a t o e s to s t o c k "feeding i n Great B r i t a i n a t p r e s e n t .
In t h e p a s t , t h e r e has b e e n some i l l e g a l d i v e r s i o n a t
w h o l e s a l e and r e t a i l l e v e l s , b u t i t i s hoped t h a t t h e
h i g h e r p r i c e s n o w / i n f o r c e f o l l o w i n g t h e w i t h d r a w a l of t h e
t o n n a g e ' s u b s i d y w i l l check t h i s .
I n N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d t h e p o s i t i o n on f a r m s i s l e s s
satisfactory.
The crop i s grown v e r y l a r g e l y b y s m a l l farms .
and i t has always been t h e e x p e r i e n c e t h e r e t h a t a
s i g n i f i c e n t p a r t of t h e t o t a l c r o p , n e a r l y 1+0$ d u r i n g t h e
l a s t t e n s e a s o n s , compared w i t h 1 1 $ i n G r e a t B r i t a i n , r e m a i n s
on t h e farms where t h e b u l k "is f e d t o s t o c k .
It is essential
t h a t t h i s d i v e r s i o n s h o u l d b.., g r e a t l y r e d u c e d and t h e
r e s u l t a n t s a v i n g made a v a i l a b l e f o r shipment t o G r e a t
Britain.
There"may be b e t w e e n 3 0 , 0 0 0 and 5 0 , 0 0 0 t o n s a t
issue here.
At p r e s e n t t h e r a t e of s h i p m e n t f o r e c a s t f o r
t h e s e a s o n from N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d i s 9 0 , 0 0 0 t o n s compared w i t h
tP
213,000 tons shipped l a s t y e a r .
We a r e d i s c u s s i n g w i t h
N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d w h e t h e r , b y r e a s o n of economies on t h o farm
and i n t h e m a r k e t , t h e p r e s e n t e s t i m a t e of 9 0 , 0 0 0 t o n s c a n n o t
. bo i n c r e a s e d t o a b o u t l a s t y e a r l s l e v e l .
Action has a l r e a d y been taken to r e d u c e the l e g a l s a l e s
f o r s t o c k f e e d b y l o w e r i n g t h e "wore s t a n d a r d " and a l l o w i n g
c e r t a i n previously prohibited types with s u p e r f i c i a l defects,
s u c h as c r a c k s and d r y s c a b , t o move f o r human c o n s u m p t i o n :
t h e s e would n o r m a l l y h a v e "been f e d t o s t o c k .
Reduction
R e d u c t i o n of t h e p r e s e n t 1^ i n c h r i d d l e t o 1 i n c h has
in size
a l s o b e e n c o n s i d e r e d a s a p o s s i b l e means of r e d u c i n g t h e
of
r e s i d u e of s m a l l p o t a t o e s l e f t on f a r m s , b u t h a s b e e n
riddle
d i s c a r d e d a s b e i n g of l i t t l e v a l u e .
The c h a n g e would p r o d u c e
a few more p o t a t o e s - p e r h a p s one q u a r t e r of a w e e k ' s s u p p l y ­
a t t h e c o s t of i n c l u d i n g more s o i l and o t h e r m a t t e r and c o u l d
n o t b e mode g e n e r a l l y e f f e c t i v e a s few g r o w e r s have r i d d l e s
of t h e s m a l l e r m e s h .
F o l l o w i n g n o r m a l p r a c t i c e , a r e s e r v e of a b o u t 700,000
t o n s n e c e s s a r y f o r adjustment of s u p p l i e s i n d e f i c i e n c y
a r e a s a t t h e end of t h e s e a s o n i s b e i n g p u r c h a s e d .
The
f u r t h e r r e s t r i c t i o n s on s a l e a n d movement d e s c r i b e d above
w i l l r e d u c e t h e s u p p l i e s a v a i l a b l e t o t h e w h o l e s a l e t r a d e and
w i l l c a u s e s h o r t a g e s t o d e v e l o p i n some a r e a s w i t h i n a v e r y
short period.
I t i s therefore necessary to regulate sales to
t h e consumer a t t h e e a r l i e s t p o s s i b l e moment.
The l i m i t e d
s u p p l i e s a v a i l a b l e must b e s p r e a d t o t h e "best a d v a n t a g e o v e r
t h e p e r i o d u n t i l t h e 1948 c r o p becomes a v a i l a b l e i n f a i r
q u a n t i t y ( s a y 1 s t J u l y , 1948) and d i s t r i b u t e d a s e q u i t a b l y a s
p o s s i b l e "between c o n s u m e r s e i t h e r b y r a t i o n i n g o r "by some
s y s t e m of d i s t r i b u t i o n s h o r t of r a t i o n i n g . .
Difficulty 4.
T h e r e o r e two main t y p e s of r a t i o n i n g s c h e m e s : ­
of g u a r a n .
.teeing
( a ) C a n c e l l a t i o n of c o u p o n s coupled, w i t h r e g i s t r a t i o n
consumer
with r e t a i l e r s .
entitlement
under a
(b) C u t t i n g o u t of c o u p o n s w i t h no t i e t o a r e t a i l e r ,
ro t i oning
scheme
(a)
R e g i s t r a t i o n w i t h r e t a i l e r s i m p l i e s a g u a r a n t e e of
s u p p l i e s t o t h e r e t a i l e r and of t h e r a t i o n t o h i s r e g i s t e r e d
customers.
I t would b e i m p o s s i b l e t o t i e a consumer t o a
p a r t i c u l a r r e t a i l e r i f t h e r e were t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t h i s
r e t a i l e r . w o u l d h e u n a b l e t o s u p p l y him w h i l s t a n e i g h b o u r i n g
r e t a i l e r had s u p p l i e s a v a i l a b l e w h i c h he was f o r b i d d e n t o b u y .
I t would, however, he i m p r a c t i c a b l e t o s e c u r e t h a t the p o t a t o
r e t a i l e r w o u l d r e c e i v e . s u p p l i e s i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e number
of c u s t o m e r s r e g i s t e r e d w i t h him. There o r e e s t i m a t e d t o b e
a b o u t 21+0,000 g r o w e r s ( i n c l u d i n g a b o u t 1 0 , 0 0 0 g r o w e r - s a l e s m e n )
of whom a b o u t 1 7 3 , 0 0 0 w i l l b e h o l d i n g s t o c k s a t t h e end of
November, 3 , 5 0 0 f i r s t hand b u y e r s and n o t l e s s t h a n 150,000
retailers.
To r e g i m e n t s u p p l i e s from grower t o consumer
u n d e r t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s as i n t h e manner r e q u i r e d b y a
r e g i s t r a t i o n scheme would i n v o l v e b u y i n g p e r m i t s and r e t u r n s
a t each s t a g e of d i s t r i b u t i o n a s w e l l as t h e b u r d e n ' o f
s e t t i n g up a n d m a i n t a i n i n g r e c o r d s of r e g i s t r a t i o n .
T h i s would be an immense , o p e r a t i o n r e q u i r i n g a great­
d e a l of time abd labour." " 1
(b)
C u t t i n g o u t of coupons p r e s u p p o s e s t h e t
s u i t a b l e coupons a r e a v a i l a b l e .
They a r e n o t .
Printing
of a p p r o p r i a t e s e t s of coupons and t h e i r d i s t r i b u t i o n t o
i n d i v i d u a l consumers would p u t an a l m o s t u n b e a r a b l e s t r a i n
b o t h on the a d m i n i s t r a t i v e machine and on the p a t i e n c e
of the p u b l i c .
M o r e o v e r , w h i l e coupons s u r r e n d e r e d by
t h e r e t a i l e r would be a f a i r l y a c c u r a t e m e a s u r e of t h e
s u p p l i e s needed by him, i t would be no l e s s d i f f i c u l t
t o r e l a t e h i s s u p p l i e s t o h i s n e e d s t h a n i t would u n d e r
a r e g i s t r a t i o n scheme.
The f o r e g o i n g - r e a s o n s seem c o n c l u s i v e
t h e i m p o s i t i o n of a r a t i o n i n g scheme p r o p e r . Distribution
Scheme
.,
against 5.
The o n l y p r a c t i c a b l e c o u r s e i s some system of controlled distribution.
The M i n i s t r y a l r e a d y o p e r a t e s a number of schemes which f a l l s h o r t of f u l l r a t i o n i n g , b u t . h a v e n e v e r t h e l e s s served t o d i s t r i b u t e , f o r example, m i l k , o r a n g e s , eggs and b a n a n a s with, a r e a s o n a b l e measure o f " f a i r n e s s .
Such a scheme f o r p o t a t o e s would provide that ­
( a )
E x c e p t a s p r o v i d e d i n ( e ) and (d) below, no
r e t a i l e r w i l l be p e r m i t t e d t o s e l l t o any
consumer and no d o m e s t i c u s e r w i l l be
p e r m i t t e d t o buy more t h a n X pounds of
p o t a t o e s i n any one - r a t i o n week.
(b)
A l l r e t a i l s a l e s of p o t a t o e s t o i n d i v i d u a l
consumers w i l l be marked by t h e c a n c e l l a t i o n
of a coupon on p a n e l 3 on t h e back of t h e
r a t i o n book of which t h e r e i s one numbered
f o r each of 52 w e e k s .
( c )
Coupons w i l l be marked ( a n d p o t a t o e s t a k e n )
i n t h e week t o which t h e y r e l a t e o r i n the­
s u c c e e d i n g week.
( d )
S u p p l i e s to h o t e l s , r e s t a u r a n t s , c a n t e e n s ,
e t c . w i l l be p u r c h a s e d by means of p e r m i t s
and w i l l be a s s e s s e d on t h e p r i n c i p l e s a p p l i e d
to r a t i o n e d commodities.
Supplies to f i s h
f r i e r s and m a n u f a c t u r e r s w i l l be r e l a t e d t o
t h e i r a l l o c a t i o n s of o t h e r f o o d s i n s u c h a
way as t o c u t t h e i r s u p p l i e s i n a r a t i o
roughly corresixmding to the cut i n domestic
supplies.
( e )
The M i n i s t r y w i l l take s t e p s t o r e g u l a t e t h e
f l o w of p o t a t o e s off f a r m s t o e q u a t e as n e a r l y
as p o s s i b l e o v e r a p e r i o d - t h e q u a n t i t i e s
e n t e r i n g t h e m a r k e t and t h e q u a n t i t i e s which
s h o u l d - b e needed, to meet the consumer
allowance.
A m a r g i n w i l l be- allowed f o r
c on t i n g en c i e s .
.
4-
To s t a r t b r e a d r a t i o n i n g , 5000 a d d i t i o n a l s t a f f had t o
be employed i n Pood O f f i c e s . '
P r o b a b l y a b o u t 7,500
would be r e q u i r e d f o r t h i s o p e r a t i o n i n Pood O f f i c e s and,,
i n a d d i t i o n , t h e P o t a t o D i v i s i o n of t h e M i n i s t r y and a i s e
t h e t r a d e - would have t o t a k e on s e v e r a l thousand more.
( f )
To e l i m i n a t e t h e b u y i n g of p o t a t o e s f o r o t h e r
than l e g i t i m a t e r e s o l e , , each t r a d e r w i l l be
g i v e n a document c e r t i f y i n g t h a t he i s a
l e g i t i m a t e t r a d e r w i t h o u t which he may n o t b e ­
supplied.
T h i s w i l l throw some work upon
t h e M i n i s t r y and e n t a i l a c e r t a i n amount of
printing, but i t is quite indispensable.
I t would b e i m p r a c t i c a b l e t o a p p l y t h i s scheme t o
Northern Ireland.
T h i s scheme has t h e m e r i t of s i m p l i c i t y .
I t involves
a minimum of a d m i n i s t r a t i v e i n t e r v e n t i o n i n t h o d i s t r i b u t i v e
m a c h i n e - a most i m p o r t a n t p o i n t i n a scheme d e s i g n e d t o l a s t
f o r only seven months.
On t h e o t h e r hand, i t h a s c e r t a i n
o b v i o u s w e a k n e s s e s . . I t i s d e s i g n e d l y much more r o u g h and r e a d y
t h a n a f u l l r a t i o n i n g scheme and t h i s i s a s e r i o u s c o n s i d e r a t i o n
w i t h so v i t a l a commodity. A d h e r e n c e t o t h e r e g u l a t i o n s w i l l
be d i f f i c u l t to. enforce.
I t w i l l not be p o s s i b l e to provide
f o r any d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n s b e t w e e n g r o u p s of c o n s u m e r s on t h e
d o m e s t i c a l l o w a n c e ( e x c e p t f o r c h i l d r e n u n d e r f i v e and seamen)
o r t o t a k e a c c o u n t of s e l f - s u p p l i e r s ( p r o b a b l y no scheme c o u l d
do t h i s ) .
On t h e o t h e r hand, i t w i l l b e p o s s i b l e t o make
p r o v i s i o n f o r t h e s p e c i a l n e e d s of i n d u s t r i a l w o r k e r s and
s c h o o l c h i l d r e n b y g i v i n g t o i n d u s t r i a l c a n t e e n s and s c h o o l s
p r e f e r e n t i a l a l l o w a n c e s of p o t a t o e s of t h e same o r d e r as t h e y
enjoy for c e r t a i n r a t i o n e d foods.
6.
I t w i l l be seen,from paragraph 2 above, t h a t i t i s
e s t i m a t e d t h a t 2 , 2 5 2 , 0 0 0 t o n s of p o t a t o e s w i l l be a v a i l a b l e
f o r c o n s u m p t i o n b e t w e e n 2 3 r d November, I 9 h 7 and 3 0 t h J u n e , 191+8,
The f o l l o w i n g a r e
o r some 1 , 3 9 6 , 0 0 0 t o n s l e s s t h a n i s n e e d e d .
a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s f o r m a t c h i n g consumption w i t h t h e a v a i l a b l e
supplies:­
( a )
T a k i n g a c o n s e r v a t i v e e s t i m a t e of t o t a l s u p p l i e s
( a t t h i s s t a g e in t h e season exact e s t i m a t e s
a r e i m p o s s i b l e a s much of t h e c r o p i s s t i l l i n
t h e ground) i t i s p o s s i b l e t o budget f o r a
u n i f o r m d o m e s t i c a l l o w a n c e o v e r t h e whole p e r i o d .
On t h i s b a s i s t h e h i g h e s t p r u d e n t l e v e l f o r t h e
n o r m a l d o m e s t i c a l l o w a n c e would b e 2-g- l b s . p e r
h e a d p e r week. T h e r e would b e some n u t r i t i o n a l
j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r g i v i n g ,a l o w e r a l l o w a n c e t o
c h i l d r e n , u n d e r f i v e y e a r s of age and t h i s can
e a s i l y b e done s i n c e t h e y have a d i f f e r e n t
coloured r a t i o n book.
I t i s proposed t h a t they
s h o u l d r e c e i v e 1-g- l b s . p e r h e a d p e r week.
These
two c a t e g o r i e s would use 1, .065,000 t o n s .
O r d i n a r y " c o m m e r c i a l c a t e r i n g e s t a b l i s h m e n t s and
i n s t i t u t i o n s Would r e c e i v e s u p p l i e s on s t r i c - t
p a r i t y with the domestic allowance, but schools
and i n d u s t r i a l c a n t e e n s would b e on a s c a l e
roughly equal to t h e i r p r e s e n t consumption.
These c a t e g o r i e s would a c c o u n t f o r 3 6 9 , 0 0 0 t o n s .
P i s h f r i e r s would b e r e d u c e d t o 1 3 6 , 0 0 0 t o n s .
M a n u f a c t u r e r s . w o u l d use 5 0 , 0 0 0 t o n s . . T o t a l u s a g e
would t h u s b e 2 , 1 2 0 , 0 0 0 t o n s a g a i n s t 2 , 2 5 2 , 0 0 0
estimated to be available for c i v i l i a n '
c o n s u m p t i o n i n G r e a t B r i t a i n from t h e U n i t e d
Kingdom s u p p l i e s .
1
The d i s a d v a n t a g e s of t h i s -plan a r e t h a t i t
means a v e r y d r a s t i c c u t a t t h e o u t s e t - b e f o r e the
scheme h a s g o t g o i n g rnd t h a t i t i n v o l v e s p o s s i b l y
u n n e c e s s a r i l y " l o w . c o n s u m p t i o n d u r i n g p a r t of t h e
worst winter period.
On t h e o t h e r . h a n d , i f the
e s t i m a t e p r o v e s t o have b e e n too p e s s i m i s t i c it­
m i g h t be p o s s i b l e . , t o r a i s e t h e a l l o w a n c e a b o u t the
end of F e b r u a r y a t a time when from t h e p o i n t of
view b o t h of g e n e r a l moral;:; "and of n u t r i t i o n s u c h
a f i l l i p would be- w e l c o m e .
( a )
A d o m e s t i c a l l o w a n c e o f ' 3 l b s . p e r head ( l £ l b s .
f o r c h i l d r e n up to f i v e ) c o u l d be given, i n i t i a l l y ,
w i t h t h e c e r t a i n t y t h a t i t v/ould have to be r e d u c e d
a t t h e b e g i n n i n g of March p r o b a b l y to 2 l b s .
O f f t a k e f i g u r e s would be s i m i l a r i n t o t a l t o t h o s e
g i v e n u n d e r ( a ) , b u t t h e o f f t a k e would be d i f f e r e n t l y
spread over the p e r i o d .
T h i s method would g i v e the
scheme a much b e t t e r s t a r t .
I t would a l s o g i v e a
s l i g h t l y h i g h e r c o n s u m p t i o n d u r i n g t h e d e p t h of t h e .
winter.
On t h e o t h e r h a n d , o t h e r t h i n g s b e i n g
- e q u a l , a d e c r e a s e i n t h e a l l o w a n c e i s a t h i n g t o be
a v o i d e d and t h i s d e c r e a s e would come a t a t i m e when
t h e r e w i l l be a w i d e s p r e a d s h o r t a g e of v e g e t a b l e s . '
1*
The r e d u c t i o n s u n d e r e i t h e r p l a n w i l l be a p a r t i c u l a r l y
s e r i o u s " b l o w to f a m i l i e s w i t h growing c h i l d r e n ;
i t may be
d e s i r a b l e t o i n c r e a s e t h e b r e a d r a t i o n f o r a d o l e s c e n t s a s soon
a s t h e r e d u c t i o n I n p o t a t o c o n s u m p t i o n t a k e s effect."'"
8.
I t i s o b v i o u s t h a t t h e p o s i t i o n i s so s e r i o u s that­
con t r o i must be Imposed a t t h e e a r l i e s t p o s s i b l e moment.
T e n t a t i v e c o n s u l t a t i o n s have b e e n begun w i t h t h e g r o w e r s ' and
t r a d e r s ' o r g a n i s a t i o n s and a l s o t h e N a t i o n a l - P o t a t o e s A d v i s o r y
Committee, w h i c h c o n s i s t s of g r o w e r s , w h o l e s a l e r s , c o - o p e r a t i v e
s o c i e t i e s , r e t a i l e r s , f i s h f r i e r s and t r a d e u n i o n s t o d i s c u s s ;
w i t h them t h e m e a s u r e s , p r o p o s e d .
On t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t a
d e c i s i o n i s r e a c h e d n o t l a t e r t h a n 23rd O c t o b e r , t h i s
c o n s u l t a t i o n can be c o m p l e t e d by. t h e . end -of t h e month.
Any d e l a y i n r e a c h i n g a d e c i s i o n w i l l c a u s e a p o s t p o n e m e n t
and add to o u r s u p p l y and c o n t r o l d i f f i c u l t i e s .
A f t e r t h e s e c o n s u l t a t i o n s have t a k e n p i r o e , i t i s
p r o p o s e d t o b r i n g t h e O r d e r i n t o f o r c e i n two s t a g e s .
As
from-2nd November, r e t a i l e r s w i l l be r e q u i r e d t o l i m i t t h e i r
s a l e s to. r a t i o n book h o l d e r s and t o -..the p r e s c r i b e d q u a n t i t i e s ,
and t o mark r a t i o n b o o k s .
As from t h e same d a t e , t h e u s e of
p o t a t o e s i n c a t e r i n g e s t a b l i s h m e n t s , c a n t e e n s and f i s h f r i e r s "
s h o p s w i l l be l i m i t e d t o the s t a t u t o r y a l l o w a n c e s . ' The second ­
p a r t of the O r d e r w i l l ' p r o v i d e t h a t s a l e s may n o t t a k e p l a c e
to.. re t o i l e r s and c a t e r i n g e s t a b l i s h m e n t s who do n o t h o l d
w r i t t e n a u t h o r i t y t o . buy from t h e Pood O f f i c e .
The e a r l i e s t ­
d a t e t h a t t h i s w i l l b e . p o s s i b l e w i l l be t h e 3 0 t h November,
s i n c e t h e n e c e s s a r y documents c a n n o t be p r i n t e d and I s s u e d
sooner.
T h i s p r o c e d u r e w i l l mean that- t h e r e w i l l be a p e r i o d
of f o u r weeks d u r i n g which i t w i l l be p o s s i b l e f o r c a t e r i n g
e s t a b l i s h m e n t s t o buy i n e x c e s s of' t h e i r r e q u i r e m e n t s and f o r
p e r s o n s who are not- bone, f i d e r e t a i l e r s t o buy f o r r e s a l e .
-In p r a c t i c e , however, t h i s I s n o t l i k e l y t o l e a d to a s e r i o u s
d e p l e t i o n of s t o c k s , s i n c e b u y i n g by. t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c ,
H- P r e s e n t home c o n s u m p t i o n of p o t a t o e s i n urbam w o r k i n g - c l a s s .
h o u s e h o l d s i s e s t i m a t e d a t hi l b s . p e r head per week, of which
ifci l b s . a r e a c t u a l p u r c h a s e s .
whether through r e t a i l e r s ' shops or c a t e r i n g e s t a b l i s h merits, - w i l l be l i m i t e d , arcl t h e d r a i n on t o t a l s u p p l i e s
w i l l be m o d e r a t e d .
Seed
9.
A r r a n g e m e n t s t o s e c u r e t h e p r o o e r use of seed p o t a t o e s are being d i s c u s s e d with the A g r i c u l t u r e Departments.
qj
lltritional
Implications
^
/
*
'
10.
The s e r i o u s n e s s of t h e cut i n p o t a t o c o n s u m p t i o n upon our p r e c a r i o u s n u t r i t i o n a l s t a n d a r d s must be c l e a r l y recognised.
While it- i s t r u e - t h a t t h e o v e r a l l l o s s i n c a l o r i e s w i l l o n l y be of t h e o r d e r of 3 p e r c e n t . , such a
. l o s s - "when added t o o t h e r i m p e n d i n g c u t s i n r a t i o n e d
f o o d s - may w e l l r e d u c e t h e a v e r a g e n u t r i e n t i n t a k e below
t h e m a r g i n a l l e v e l of 2,800 c a l o r i e s p e r d a y .
Moreover,
p o t a t o e s a r e one o f the m o s t i m p o r t a n t s o u r c e s of v i t a m i n
C; - d u r i n g the war t h e y f u r n i s h e d f u l l y o n e - t h i r d of t h e ­
d a i l y i n t a k e of t h i s v i t a m i n ,
A substantial reduction
i n p o t a t o c o n s u m p t i o n d u r i n g t h e w i n t e r m o n t h s , when t h e i r
v i t a m i n , 0 c o n t e n t i s n o r m a l l y low as a r e s u l t o f . s t o r a g e
and when a l t e r n a t i v e s o u r c e s o f t h i s v i t a m i n ( e . g . f r u i t
and g r e e n l e a f y v e g e t a b l e s ) a r e s c a r c e , w i l l s e r i o u s l y
r e d u c e t h e t o t a l v i t a m i n 0 i n t a k e of t h e p o p u l a t i o n .
The a l l o c a t i o n s recommended i n t h i s memorandum / w i l l
spread the a v a i l a b l e sup-plies as evenly as p o s s i b l e over
a l l age g r o u p s and c l a s s e s of the. p o p u l a t i o n , while­
f u r n i s h i n g adequate supplementary a l l o c a t i o n s to c h i l d r e n ,
of- s c h o o l age (whose v i t a m i n G r e q u i r e m e n t s a r e h i g h ) and
providing generous canteen a l l o c a t i o n s to i n d u s t r i a l
w o r k e r s who need c a l o r i e s .
N e v e r t h e l e s s , the general
e f f e c t on t h e n u t r i t i o n a l -"well-being of' t h e p o p u l a t i o n
must g i v e c a u s e f o r s e r i o u s c o n c e r n .
11.
A A f u r t h e r f a c t o r of a l m o s t e q u a l i m p o r t a n c e i s
t h e s p e c i a l p l a c e of p o t a t o e s i n t h e d a i l y menu.
Dietary
h a b i t s a r e - n o t o r i o u s l y d i f f i c u l t - t o a l t e r , and any A
r e d u c t i o n i n e i t h e r household or canteen s u p p l i e s i s
A bound to have a most u n f a v o u r a b l e p s y c h o l o g i c a l e f f e c t on
b o t h ' t h e h o u s e w i f e and t h e w o r k e r .
I f i t s h o u l d prove
p o s s i b l e t o d e - r a t i o n b r e a d f a i r l y soon t h i s would h e l p ' ,
t o a l l e v i a t e t h e p o s i t i o n not- o n l y from t h e n u t r i t i o n a l
b u t ' s t i l l more from t h e p s y c h o l o g i c a l a n g l e .
Bread
c o n s t i t u t e s an --invaluable " f i l l e r " when o t h e r s t a p l e f o o d s
a r e i n s h o r t s u p p l y , and though i t o c c u p i e s a v e r y d i f f e r e n t
p l a c e from p o t a t o e s i n t h e d a i l y menu, i t s f r e e s a l e
?/ould p r o v i d e b o t h a s a f e t y " f a c t o r i n m a r g i n a l c a s e s and
a s a f e t y valve a g a i n s t popular f r u s t r a t i o n .
While the
. d e - r a t i o n i n g of- b r e a d would h e l p , to s a f e g u a r d t h e c a l o r i e
and p r o t e i n i n t a k e of t h e p o p u l a t i o n , i t would n o t
a l l e v i a t e t h e s h o r t a g e of v i t a m i n - 0 . a I t w i l l t h e r e f o r e
be e s s e n t i a l to take., all" p o s s i b l e s u p p l e m e n t a r y m e a s u r e s
t o i n c r e a s e the vitomin*C i n t a k e d u r i n g t h e l a t e - w i n t e r
- and e a r l y s p r i n g months. '
Future Programme -
"^
fpl
12.
No one can gauge a t t h i s s t a g e t h e harm t h a t w i l l
be done to the w e l l b e i n g of t h e p u b l i c by t h e coming
p o t a t o s h o r t a g e , but i t i s apparent t h a t - n o s t e p s that can
now be t a k e n w i l l p r e v e n t some d e c l i n e i n n u t r i t i o n a l
s t a n d a r d s during- the d i f f i c u l t w i n t e r ahead.
If, however,;
t h e f u t u r e i s i n some m e a s u r e t o be s a f e g u a r d e d , u r g e n t
A
s t e p s w i l l have to be t a k e n to p r e v e n t a r e c u r r e n c e of
'
t h e s h o r t a g e s of the p a s t and p r e s e n t s e a s o n s .
A very
* s u b s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e i n t h e a c r e a g e of p o t a t o e s was one
of t h e main c o n t r i b u t i o n s of B r i t i s h a g r i c u l t u r e t o t h e .
n a t i o n ' ' s w a r - t i m e food s u p p l y .
I t seems i m p e r a t i v e t h a t
,- more a d e q u a t e p r o v i s i o n should'- be made f o r p o t a t o p r o d u c t i o n
A d u r i n g t h e lQk8/U,9 s e a s o n , e s p e c i a l l y i n view o f t h e v e r y
-'
A,-
- 9 - ' ;-Aa
p r o b l e m a t i c n a t u r e of t h e c o u n t r y ' a f u t u r e f o o d
from o v e r s e a s .
supplies
I t c a n be assumed t h a t demand w i l l c o n t i n u e a t
s l i g h t l y more t h a n t h e 1 9 4 6 / 4 7 l e v e l .
The i n t r o d u c t i o n
of b r e a d r a t i o n i n g b r o u g h t a b o u t a l a r g e r demand f o r
p o t a t o e s f o r human c o n s u m p t i o n and f o r d o m e s t i c p i g s
and p o u l t r y .
I t i s ' p r o b a b l e t h a t t h i s l a r g e r demand
w i l l c o n t i n u e i n 1948/4-9; i f b r e a d r a t i o n i n g i s d i s - .
c o n t i n u e d - t h e r e r e m a i n s s t i l l t h e l i k e l i h o o d of an
i n c r e a s e o f l i v e s t o c k s and t h e u s a g e of p o t a t o e s on
f a r m s end f o r d o m e s t i c f e e d i n g may make - l a r g e r i n r o a d s
into potato supplies.
P r o v i s i o n h a s t o be made a l s o
f o r a s l i g h t i n c r e a s e i n p o p u l a t i o n . \ As a l r e a d y s t a t e d ,
t h e U n i t e d Kingdom 1946 a c r e a g e was 1,423*000 and t h e
y i e l d was 7 . 1 t o n s p e r a c r e .
T h i s was a r e c o r d a c r e a g e
. N e v e r tireless-, s u p p l i e s f e l l s l i g h t l y
and a n o r m a l y i e l d .
s h o r t of n e e d s .
The e s t i m a t e d y i e l d t h i s y e a r i s 6 . 0 3
t o n s p e r a c r e w h i c h i s t h e l o w e s t s i n c e 1931 and. t h e
a v r e a g e f e l l by a b o u t 9 0 , 0 0 0 ,
The n e e d t o i n s u r e a g a i n s t
a r e p e t i t i o n of a combined h i g h o f f t a k e end l o w y i e l d can
be met o n l y by a l a r g e i n c r e a s e d a c r e a g e i n t h e U n i t e d
Kingdom,
The e s t i m a t e d demand would r e q u i r e a n a c r e a g o
of 1 , 1 7 8 , 0 0 0 a c r e s i f t h e low y i e l d of 6 . 0 t o n s p e r a c r e
s h o u l d r e c u r , and even t h e n much of t h e hew a c r e a g e would
be -planted on m a r g i n a l l a n d from- w h i c h t h e y i e l d would be
below a v e r a g e . , I t i s r e - c o g n i s e d t h a t t h e r e i s n e i t h e r
s u i t a b l e lend n o r s u f f i c i e n t seed to p l a n t 1,780,000
acres.
1 , 6 0 0 , 0 0 0 a c r e s , f o r w h i c h seed c o u l d be
a v a i l a b l e , i s t h e minimum i n s u r a n c e w h i c h c a n be r e g a r d e d
a s w i s e i n 1948/4-9.
The r i s k t h a t w i t h a good y i e l d t h i s
a c r e a g e would p r o d u c e a s u r p l u s i s o n e t h a t must be t a k e n
i f t h e d a n g e r of a n o t h e r f a i l u r e i s t o be a v o i d e d . .
M i n i s t r y of P o o d , S.,W.
20th October,
1947.
1.,