:O
(THIS D O C U M E N T IS T H E P R O P E R T Y O F H E R B R I T A N N I C M A J E S T Y ' S G O V E R N M E N T ) C. (60) 52
C O P Y NO.
\V
15th M a r c h , I960
CABINET
THE CROWTHER REPORT
M e m o r a n d u m by t h e C h a n c e l l o r of the E x c h e q u e r
I a m s h o c k e d by t h e p r o p o s a l to a n n o u n c e now t h e p r o v i s i o n
of 8 , 0 0 0 m o r e p l a c e s in t e a c h e r s ' t r a i n i n g c o l l e g e s and o t h e r i m p r o v e m e n t
2.
I a n n e x the c o v e r i n g n o t e to t h e o f f i c i a l s ' i n t e r i m r e p o r t on
t h e e c o n o m i c and f i n a n c i a l i m p l i c a t i o n s of the C r o w t h e r R e p o r t . T h i s i s
a n i n t e r i m r e p o r t , c i r c u l a t e d o n l y a few d a y s a g o , not y e t fully d i g e s t e d
even by the officials.
3.
H o w e v e r , t h e r e a p p e a r s to be no doubt t h a t e v e n on e x i s t i n g
p o l i c y , t h e e d u c a t i o n a l b i l l w i l l i n c r e a s e by o v e r £ 6 5 0 m i l l i o n s
(80 p e r cent) by 1974. C l e a r l y we c a n n o t u n d e r t a k e m o r e : the q u e s t i o n
i s w h e t h e r we c a n do a s m u c h . T h e r e i s not o n l y a p r o b l e m for t h e
E x c h e q u e r : t h e p a r t to be b o r n e by l o c a l r a t e s w i l l , on t h e s a m e e s t i m a t e ,
m o r e t h a n d o u b l e in the 1 5 - y e a r p e r i o d .
4.
T h i s e d u c a t i o n a l e x p a n s i o n ( f r o m 3 . 9 p e r c e n t of g r o s s
n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t to 5 p e r cent) m u s t be put in p e r s p e c t i v e w i t h o t h e r
c l a i m s :­
(i)
V/e h a v e b e f o r e u s a p a p e r (C. (60) 35) w h i c h s u g g e s t s t h a t we
should continue to d e v o t e t h e s a m e p r o p o r t i o n of an e x p a n d i n g n a t i o n a l
i n c o m e to d e f e n c e , e c o n o m i c a i d , a n d o t h e r e x p e n d i t u r e i n s u p p o r t of
e x t e r n a l p o l i c y . In the l a s t s e v e n y e a r s , t h i s h a s f a l l e n f r o m 12^: p e r cent
of t h e g r o s s n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t to a b o u t 8^ p e r c e n t - t h i s i s why we h a v e
b e e n a b l e to h a v e t a x r e d u c t i o n s and i n c r e a s e d s o c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e .
(ii)
T h e M i n i s t e r of T r a n s p o r t i s p r e p a r i n g a 1 0 - y e a r r o a d s
p r o g r a m m e w h i c h would about t r e b l e o u r r a t e of s p e n d i n g i n t h e n e x t
five y e a r s .
(iii)
My c o l l e a g u e s know m y p r e o c c u p a t i o n with the r a t e of g r o w t h
of the c o s t of t h e N a t i o n a l H e a l t h S e r v i c e .
(iv)
We s h a l l soon be d i s c u s s i n g p e n s i o n s a g a i n .
(v)
I m u s t m e n t i o n s p a c e r e s e a r c h , c i v i l a v i a t i o n , and C u n a r d e r s .
(vi)
There are also railways.
(vii)
T h e C h a i r m a n of t h e P a r t y H o u s i n g C o m m i t t e e i s c a l l i n g for a
5 0 , 0 0 0 a y e a r h o u s i n g p r o g r a m m e - an e x t r a £400 m i l l i o n s a y e a r call
on r e s o u r c e s ( p r i v a t e a n d public) a n d on s a v i n g s .
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CONFIDENTIAL
5.
With a l l t h e s e c l a i m s f r o m a l l o u r p o l i c i e s p r e s s i n g upon one
a n o t h e r , I m u s t a s k m y c o l l e a g u e s to s t o p and c o n s i d e r . At t h e b e s t
we a r e d i s s i p a t i n g the p r o s p e c t s of c o n t i n u i n g t a x r e d u c t i o n s o v e r
the y e a r s . We m a y be r u n n i n g t h e e c o n o m y i n t o i n f l a t i o n .
6.
A g a i n s t t h i s b a c k g r a o u n d i n m y o p i n i o n we could not
with h o n e s t y j u s t i f y a n n o u n c i n g a d d i t i o n a l e d u c a t i o n a l i m p r o v e m e n t s
next w e e k . T h e c o s t of b u i l d i n g and r u n n i n g the e x t r a c o l l e g e s i s a
s m a l l p a r t of t h e c o s t - the r e a l point i s t h e c o s t o f e x t r a t e a c h e r s
p r o d u c e d y e a r a f t e r y e a r - o v e r £30 m i l l i o n s a y e a r a s e a r l y a s 1974-7 5,
and of c o u r s e r i s i n g e v e r y y e a r .
7.
I would
a n effective s t o r y
t o i n c r e a s e by 80
at s c h o o l . If t h i s
F o r e x a m p l e :­
h a v e hoped t h a t t h e E d u c a t i o n M i n i s t e r s could p r e s e n t
of a c h i e v e m e n t . We a r e a l r e a d y i n t e n d i n g , i t a p p e a r s ,
p e r cent in 15 y e a r s t h e c o s t of m a i n t a i n i n g a child
i s not w a s t e , i t m u s t be a r e v o l u t i o n i n e d u c a t i o n .
(i)
I m p r o v i n g s e c o n d a r y s c h o o l staffing r a t i o by o v e r o n e - q u a r t e r
(21.9 to 16), and r e d u c i n g a v e r a g e j u n i o r c l a s s e s to 3 0 .
(ii)
I n c r e a s i n g n u m b e r of t e a c h e r s ' t r a i n i n g c o l l e g e p l a c e s f r o m
2 3 , 0 0 0 to 3 9 , 0 0 0 . T h i s will l e a d to a n i n c r e a s e in the n u m b e r of
t e a c h e r s f r o m 2 6 4 , 0 0 0 to 3 3 2 , 0 0 0 by 1970. E n o u g h b o t h to a b o l i s h
o v e r s i z e c l a s s e s and to r a i s e t h e l e a v i n g a g e by 1975-1976 - o n l y
t h r e e y e a r s a f t e r what would be p o s s i b l e with 8, 000 e x t r a p l a c e s .
(iii)
T h e s c h o o l b u i l d i n g p r o g r a m m e - 50-60 p e r c e n t of the
c h i l d r e n to be i n p o s t - w a r s c h o o l s by 1970.
(iv)
Doubling t h e n u m b e r of f u r t h e r e d u c a t i o n t e a c h e r s b y 1970.
8,
T h i s s e e m s t o m e a n i m p r e s s i v e l i s t , and I a m s u r e we
c a n n o t and should not a n n o u n c e m o r e .
D. H. A.
T r e a s u r y C h a m b e r s , 5. W. 1.
15th M a r c h , I960
CONFIDENTIAL ANNEX
Note by t h e C h a i r m a n of t h e C o m m i t t e e of O f f i c i a l s
1
The C o m m i t t e e s i n t e r i m r e p o r t shows that, under "existing
policy", educational expenditure (excluding universities) is expected
to i n c r e a s e a s f o l l o w s : ­
Educational expenditure
£ millions
(1959 = 100)
Educational expenditure
a s a p e r c e n t a g e of G r o s s
National Product
1959
1964
1969
1974
816
1,034
1,236
1,472
(100)
(127)
(151)
(180)
3.9
4.3
4.7
5.0
2.
If the C r o w t h e r r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s (and c e r t a i n o t h e r r e f o r m s ,
s u c h a s t h e f o r t h c o m i n g A n d e r s o n r e p o r t on a w a r d s to u n i v e r s i t y s t u d e n t s )
a r e i m p l e m e n t e d , t h e s e f i g u r e s w i l l be i n c r e a s e d a s f o l l o w s : ­
Educational expenditure
£millions
(1959 = 100)
Educational expenditure as
a p e r c e n t a g e of G r o s s
National Product
1959
1964
1969
1974
816
1,077
1,327
1, 590
(100)
(132)
(163)
(195)
3.9
4.5
. 5.0
5.4
3.
T h e s e t a b l e s show t h a t " e x i s t i n g p o l i c y " a l o n e will c a u s e
e d u c a t i o n a l e x p e n d i t u r e to r i s e f r o m £816 m i l l i o n s in 1959 to
£ 1 , 4 7 2 m i l l i o n s i n 1974 and t h a t i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of t h e C r o w t h e r r e p o r t ,
e t c . would r a i s e t h e 1974 t o t a l b y £118 m i l l i o n s to £ 1 , 590 m i l l i o n s .
4.
It i s not w i t h i n m y C o m m i t t e e ' s p u r v i e w to a s s e s s t h e s e
p r o s p e c t i v e i n c r e a s e s of e x p e n d i t u r e i n r e l a t i o n to t h e e t h e r o b j e c t i v e s
of G o v e r n m e n t p o l i c y .
5.
At t h i s s t a g e M i n i s t e r s a r e not being i n v i t e d to a p p r o v e
t h e C r o w t h e r r e p o r t a s a w h o l e . It i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t t h e M i n i s t e r of
E d u c a t i o n i s s e e k i n g a g r e e m e n t to t h r e e m a i n p r c p o s a l s : ­
(i)
An e x t r a 8 , 0 0 0 t r a i n i n g c o l l e g e p l a c e s .
(ii)
A g r e e m e n t in p r i n c i p l e to r a i s i n g the s c h o o l , - l e a v i n g a g e
to 16, but no d e c i s i o n yet o n t h e d a t e for d o i n g s o .
(ii)
An i n d e f i n i t e p o s t p o n e m e n t of c o m p u l s o r y p a r t - t i m e d a y
e d u c a t i o n for a l l u p to 18, but t h e a c c e l e r a t e d e x p a n s i o n of f u r t h e r
e d i V a t i o n on a v o l u n t a r y b a s i s .
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CONFIDENTIAL
6.
T e a c h e r s ' t r a i n i n g p l a c e s . T h e s u p p l y of t e a c h e r s i s t h e k e y
to t h e r e f o r m s and t h e chief i t e m in t h e b i l l . A s s u m i n g no i n f l a t i o n ,
e a c h 1 0 , 0 0 0 n e w t e a c h e r s w i l l b y 1975 b e c o s t i n g £15 m i l l i o n s a y e a r
i n p a y and s u p e r a n n u a t i o n .
7.
Two m a j o r r e f o r m s a r e e n v i s a g e d - t h e a b o l i t i o n of o v e r s i z e
c l a s s e s ( r e d u c i n g the s e c o n d a r y s c h o o l staffing r a t i o f r o m 21.8 to 16)
and t h e r a i s i n g of the s c h o o l - l e a v i n g a g e to 16. On p r e s e n t ( E n g l a n d
and W a l e s ) t e a c h e r t r a i n i n g (with 1 6 , 0 0 0 n e w p l a c e s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n )
b o t h of t h e s e r e f o r m s c a n be done by 1975-1976, i n w h i c h e v e r o r d e r s e e m s
b e s t . With 8 , 0 0 0 m o r e p l a c e s , a n a d d i t i o n a l 15,000 t e a c h e r s could be
t r a i n e d i n t i m e to c o m p l e t e t h e s e r e f o r m s by 1972-1973.
8.
T h e d a t e of c o m p l e t e of t h e s e r e f o r m s - 1972-1973 o r
1975-1976 - m u s t be w e i g h e d a g a i n s t : ­
(i)
T h e c o s t of t h e new c o l l e g e s ( £ 1 2 ^ m i l l i o n s ) : and t h e c o s t of
p a y a n d s u p e r a n n u a t i o n for the e x t r a t e a c h e r s ( £ 3 1 m i l l i o n s in
1974-1975).
(ii)
T h e e x t e n t of t h e p r o s p e c t i v e n e e d for a c o n t i n u i n g r a p i d
g r o w t h in t h e t e a c h i n g f o r c e a f t e r t h e o b j e c t i v e s h a v e b e e n r e a c h e d
i n 1972-1973.
9.
R a i s i n g the l e a v i n g a g e . T h e c o s t of e d u c a t i n g t h o s e who
would o t h e r w i s e h a v e left a t 15 would b e a b o u t £ 4 2 m i l l i o n s a y e a r . New
s c h o o l b u i l d i n g s a t £ 9 2 m i l l i o n s would be n e e d e d ( l o a n c h a r g e s
about £7 m i l l i o n s ) . In t h e r e l a t i v e l y s h o r t r u n , t h e s e c o s t s m i g h t be
m e t by going m o r e s l o w l y i n r e m o v i n g o v e r s i z e c l a s s e s and in r e p l a c i n g
and i m p r o v i n g s u b - s t a n d a r d b u i l d i n g s .
10.
T h e r e would a l s o be a r e d u c t i o n of g r o s s n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t ,
w h i c h we put a t a b o u t £125 m i l l i o n s a y e a r , a s a r e s u l t of t h e r e m o v a l
of the 1 5 - y e a r - o l d s f r o m t h e l a b o u r f o r c e .
11.
We e s t i m a t e the n e t effect on c u r r e n t o u t g o i n g s f r o m p u b l i c
funds ( t a x e s , r a t e s , n a t i o n a l i n s u r a n c e funds) at a b o u t £ 7 2 m i l l i o n s a
year.
12.
F u r t h e r e d u c a t i o n . An l l f p e r c e n t p e r y e a r i n c r e a s e of
e x p e n d i t u r e i s i m p l i e d in t h e M i n i s t e r ' s p r o p o s a l , c o m p a r e d with
10 p e r c e n t on " e x i s t i n g p o l i c y " .
T h e c o s t would r i s e f r o m the
p r e s e n t £ 6 8 m i l l i o n s to £209 m i l l i o n s i n 1974-1975 on " e x i s t i n g p o l i c y "
and £ 2 3 5 m i l l i o n s a s p r o p o s e d .
10th M a r c h , I960
: '
CONFIDENTIAL