Science of the Total Environment 466–467 (2014) 277–286 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Science of the Total Environment journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/scitotenv Evaluating vehicle re-entrained road dust and its potential to deposit to Lake Tahoe: A bottom-up inventory approach Dongzi Zhu ⁎, Hampden D. Kuhns, John A. Gillies, Alan W. Gertler Desert Research Institute, 2215 Raggio Parkway, Reno, NV 89512, United States H I G H L I G H T S • • • • • Bottom-up approach provides more geographic accurate traffic pollutant emission. Geocoded spatial and temporal road dust PM10 emission factor in a road network Integrated with TDM traffic activities into a regional emission inventory database GIS tools to analyze each road link position to the lake Combined dispersion modeling to estimate annual PM10 deposition to Lake Tahoe a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 5 April 2013 Received in revised form 2 July 2013 Accepted 2 July 2013 Available online xxxx Editor: P. Kassomenos Keywords: Road dust PM10 Particle deposition Water clarity GIS Lake Tahoe a b s t r a c t Identifying hotspot areas impacted by emissions of dust from roadways is an essential step for mitigation. This paper develops a detailed road dust PM10 emission inventory using a bottom-up approach and evaluates the potential for the dust to deposit to Lake Tahoe where it can affect water clarity. Previous studies of estimates of quantities of atmospheric deposition of fine sediment particles (“FSP”, b 16 μm in diameter) to the lake were questioned due to low confidence in the results and insufficient data. A bottom-up approach that integrates measured road dust emission factors, five years of meteorological data, a traffic demand model and GIS analysis was used to estimate the near field deposition of airborne particulate matter b 16 μm, and assess the relationship between trip location and the potential magnitude of this source of atmospheric deposition to the lake. Approximately ~ 20 Mg year−1 of PM10 and ~ 36 Mg year−1 Total Suspended Particulate (TSP) from roadway emissions of dust are estimated to reach the lake. We estimate that the atmospheric dry deposition of particles to the lake attributable to vehicle travel on paved roads is approximately 0.6% of the Total Maximum Daily Loadings (TMDL) of FSP that the lake can receive and still meet water quality standards. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Road traffic emissions are the major source of many pollutants like carbon monoxide (CO), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and particulate matter (PM) in many areas of the US. Air quality modelers rely on data from national inventories like the US EPA's National Emission Inventory (NEI), to develop top-down approaches to estimate highway vehicle emissions. These emission data are often used as inputs to regional scale models like the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. These models lack a detailed spatial distribution of pollutant concentrations and emissions are allocated to grid cells as spatial surrogates (Cook et al., 2008). Alternatively, researchers (Cohen et al., 2005; Kinnee et al., 2004) have used a bottom-up ⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 775 674 7086; fax: +1 775 674 7007. E-mail address: zhu@dri.edu (D. Zhu). 0048-9697/$ – see front matter © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.017 approach to provide emission data for inputs to local scale dispersion models like AERMOD, ADMS or CALINE. The emission data combined with geocoded traffic activity data from regional travel demand models (TDM) can be used to develop more accurate vehicle emissions as a function of location. Integrating real-world measured or modeled vehicle emission factors with TDMs allows more accurate local emission inventories to be developed. This bottom-up inventory approach combined with dispersion models can provide information on spatial variation of pollutant concentrations at receptor sites, e.g., to identify hot-spot areas that are most impacted by the traffic activities in an urban area. Wu et al. (2005) developed a GIS-based methodology for producing improved roadway emissions and used the emissions as inputs for the CALINE4 dispersion model simulation. Lobdell et al. (2011) applied a bottom-up methodology as presented in Cook et al. (2008) to predict mobile source emissions (NOx and PM2.5) in New Haven, CT to assess the public health impact. Beevers et al. (2012) combined local-scale (ADMS) and regional (CMAQ) 278 D. Zhu et al. / Science of the Total Environment 466–467 (2014) 277–286 models to predict hourly pollutant concentrations for London at a spatial scale of 20 by 20 m. In that study, the authors used hourly traffic emissions (NOx and O3) based on a time series of traffic counts from 37 automatic sites in London. Jensen et al. (2009) estimated vehicle emissions in street canyons in New York City based on a bottom-up approach using traffic data from a travel demand model and the US EPA MOBILE6.2 emission factors for NOx and PM2.5 for an intra-urban exposure assessment. Jensen et al. (2009) also observed that resuspended road dust is dominated by coarse particles (PM2.5–10), however, the resuspension PM10 emission factor was not included in MOBILE6.2 hence the impact of traffic-generated PM10 (i.e., road dust) was not assessed in that study. Seigneur et al. (2000) reviewed ten Eulerian air quality models for PM and concluded that all existing models present deficiencies in their simulation of PM concentrations. Therefore, there is a need to model near-source deposition of resuspended PM10 from roadways, for example, in areas where it may be causing an air quality issue or contributing to the degradation of an important component of the local environment. This paper describes a case study that applies the bottom-up approach to estimate regional road dust emissions, and the magnitude of the potential deposition of this source of PM to Lake Tahoe, which can in turn affect the water clarity of this important alpine lake. Among the factors contributing to the decline in water quality at Lake Tahoe are inputs of nitrogen, phosphorous, and sediment into the lake. Cliff and Cahill (2000) reported that atmospheric deposition accounts for approximately 55% of the nitrogen (N) and 15% of the phosphorous (P) load into the lake. In the Lake Tahoe Atmospheric Deposition Study (LTADS), Dolislager et al. (2012) estimated that approximately 160 Mg of PM2.5, 230 Mg of PM10, and 590 Mg of TSP (Total Suspended Particulate) were deposited into the lake per year via this pathway. Estimates of the atmospheric deposition flux of fine particles into the lake were rated by Roberts and Reuter (2007) as having the lowest confidence in accuracy due to high uncertainty in the measurements and an insufficient amount of data. With the LTADS deposition data incorporated into the Lake Tahoe Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) Program (CWB and NDEP, 2010), urban upland loading (i.e., storm water runoff) was attributed to be the main source (72%) of fine sediment particles (“FSP”, b 16 μm in diameter) to the lake with atmospheric deposition accounting for 15% of FSP load in the lake. TMDL describes the maximum load of a pollutant the lake can receive and still meet water quality standards. Recent studies have demonstrated that pollutants from the transportation system in the Lake Tahoe basin adversely affect air quality (Gertler et al., 2006). Airborne particles from re-entrained road dust have the potential to deposit to the lake and hence decrease water clarity. Due to the long period when snow can fall in the area (November–April), traction control sand is periodically applied on the road surfaces in the basin. When the road surfaces dry, resuspended dust caused by vehicle movement is a source of PM10 in this region (Engelbrecht et al., 2009). As a supplementary analysis project of LTADS, Engelbrecht et al. (2009) analyzed the filters collected as part of LTADS using Principal Component Analysis. They reported that resuspended road dust accounts for 38% to 55% of the PM10 in the Lake Tahoe basin. Similar attribution level (86%) of PM10 to a road dust source has been reported by Beltran et al. (2012) in Bogota, Colombia. In that study, the spatial disaggregation of PM10 showed that non-exhaust PM10 emissions are higher in the south-west of the city, an area with poorly maintained roads, higher volumes of vehicles, and with the highest levels of particle concentrations in the city. Amato et al. (2009) studied the spatial pattern of PM10 in road dust deposited in Barcelona, Spain and found that minerals like SiO2, Al2SO3, and Ca account for ~40% of PM10. Zhu et al. (2009) measured seasonal and spatial variations of road dust emissions around Lake Tahoe using the TRAKER vehicle (Etyemezian et al., 2003), a mobile platform that measures the dust suspended behind the vehicle's front tires. Data from Zhu et al.'s (2009) TRAKER study is used in this study to construct a representative road dust emission factor (g-PM10 per vehicle kilometer traveled [g-PM10 VKT−1]) database for vehicles traveling on different road types and road maintenance jurisdiction areas in the Tahoe basin. The road dust emission factor database of Zhu et al. (2009) was integrated with a regional travel demand model, which has information on the spatial distribution of vehicle activities. The model gives geocoded information of annual average daily traffic (AADT) and vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) for each road link in the Tahoe basin. The modeling approach developed here can provide a more accurate estimate of the airborne PM10 road dust deposition component for the Lake Tahoe TMDL model, leading to an improved estimate of total fine particle loading to the lake. 2. Methodology 2.1. Road dust emission factor database In the one-year TRAKER survey around Lake Tahoe (Zhu et al., 2009), the 41-section, 120 km (75 miles) route was a combination of different road types (primary, secondary, and tertiary) and covered all road maintenance organizations in the basin, including Washoe County, Carson City, and Douglas County in Nevada, and Placer and El Dorado counties in California. TRAKER measurements of PM10 were calibrated against PM10 flux measured downwind of a paved road using flux towers (Zhu et al., 2009). With this calibration TRAKER signals are converted into emission factors (EFs) in g-PM10 VKT−1. Gillies et al. (2005) reported that the vehicle road dust emission factor is linearly related to vehicle speed and weight. The TRAKER vehicle weighs 3.1 Mg, corresponding approximately to the average weight (3.0 Mg including all vehicle types) of the US vehicle fleet based on the default travel distance-weighted vehicle mix used in the MOBILE6 emission model (US EPA, 2002). The weight of TRAKER is also close to the fleet average in the Tahoe region as Kuhns et al. (2004) reported that cars and SUVs dominate (~80%) the on road vehicle fleet in the basin, with heavy duty trucks accounting for ~2% of the fleet. During the survey TRAKER traveled at the posted road speed limits. The Tahoe TRAKER study was used to construct a representative road dust emission factor database for vehicles traveling on different road types and jurisdiction areas in the basin. The road dust PM10 emission factors in 41 road sections were grouped into two seasons (December to April is designated as winter and the rest of the year is designated as summer) for five counties and three road types (Table 1). Table 1 Road dust PM10 emission factor (EF) in terms of grams per vehicle kilometer traveled (g VKT−1) based on county and road type from one-year long TRAKER measurement campaign. County Washoe Washoe Washoe Carson Douglas Douglas Douglas El Dorado El Dorado El Dorado Placer Placer Placer Road type Primary Secondary Tertiary Primary Primary Secondary Tertiary Primary Secondary Tertiary Primary Secondary Tertiary Winter daily average EF Winter EF standard deviation Summer daily average EF Summer EF standard deviation (g VKT−1) (g VKT−1) (g VKT−1) (g VKT−1) 0.30 0.62 1.55 0.24 0.27 1.00 1.89 0.74 2.02 1.38 0.61 1.74 3.70 0.09 0.16 0.12 0.11 0.07 0.68 1.99 0.25 1.83 0.16 0.15 1.53 3.70 0.05 0.15 0.59 0.04 0.04 0.27 0.50 0.16 0.55 1.17 0.15 0.65 1.65 0.01 0.06 0.34 0.02 0.03 0.16 0.31 0.14 0.57 0.48 0.04 0.28 1.65 D. Zhu et al. / Science of the Total Environment 466–467 (2014) 277–286 279 the categories: Shrubs, Open Trees, and Dense Trees, with the median tree coverage in each category being 10%, 35%, and 75%, respectively. For every shortest path oriented towards the lake for the 7235 traffic segments, the fraction of each type of vegetation coverage was estimated using ArcGIS analysis tools. For the 7235 traffic points, the average distance to the lake is 2100 m, with a median distance to the lake of 890 m and a range from 4 m to 18,069 m. Fig. 4 shows a sample GIS overlay with shortest paths defined and the vegetation coverage en route to the Tahoe shoreline. 2.2. Travel demand model The Tahoe TransCAD travel demand model is a micro-simulated, tour-based model that reflects resident, seasonal resident, and visitor travel behavior in the Lake Tahoe basin (Parsons Brinckerhoff, 2007). The TransCAD road network is built with a Geographic Information System (GIS). The TransCAD model output provided the AADT, VKT and the link length of each of the 7235 traffic sections in the basin. To study the diurnal variation of traffic flow in the basin, road traffic counters were deployed near Bourne Meadow and Rabe Meadow on US-50 (primary road; April, 2009), Village Blvd. (secondary road; June, 2010) in Incline Village, and in Tahoe City on SR-28 (primary road; May, 2010). Traffic volumes peak in the morning and midday and are lowest at night on all the roads (Fig. 1). We assumed that there was no significant seasonal variation in this diurnal traffic flow pattern for this study. To reflect this flow pattern, TransCAD model AADT data were categorized into four distinct daily time frames: AM peak, midday, PM peak, and late night. Hourly traffic volume in each frame was adjusted for the variation in traffic flows. 2.4. Meteorological network data Five years (2005–2009) of hourly wind speed and wind direction data around Lake Tahoe were obtained from the University of California, Davis's REMOTE network (http://remote.ucdavis.edu/). The REMOTE project had six meteorological stations around the lake at: Cave Rock, Timber Cove, Rubicon, Sunnyside, USCG, and Tahoe Vista (Fig. 5). The yearly wind roses for these stations are shown in Fig. 6. 2.5. PM deposition model 2.3. PM transport route and vegetation density map Based on the work of Noll and Aluko (2006), we have calculated parameters for a first-order near-source deposition model that accounts for large particle deposition within the first kilometer of emissions. At a constant height above the ground, downwind concentrations are assumed to follow an exponential decay: The roadway network in the Tahoe basin is divided into 7235 individual segments, each modeled as an equivalent finite line source of PM10 centered at the segment's midpoint (Fig. 2). The shortest pathway (L) from the segment center to the lake shore was acquired using the GIS functions: the Add Line script, the XTools script, and the Grips and Shapes script. Landscapes (i.e., density of trees and buildings) can play a large role in attenuating concentrations of air pollutants before they reach the lake. The Tahoe Basin Existing Vegetation Map V4.1 (Dobrowski et al., 2005) was imported into ArcGIS (ESRI, Redlands, CA) to run a vegetation density analysis. A map was created through the use of digital remote sensing analysis that produced a raster image containing a cover type for each pixel in the image, which corresponds to a diameter of 1 m. This provided the means to estimate the percentage of surface covered by trees (Fig. 3). Dominant tree species in the Lake Tahoe basin are coniferous trees including Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi), Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) and Western white pine (Pinus monticola), Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), white fir (Abies concolor), and red fir (Abies magnifica); however, deciduous trees such as Aspen may form stands close to the lake. Based on the different tree coverage classes, the vegetation was divided into V X d − UH C ðxÞ ¼ C 0 e ð1Þ where C(x) C0 Vd X U H is the particle concentration at x meters of horizontal distance from source is the particle concentration at source is the deposition velocity, cm s−1 is the meters of horizontal distance from the source is the horizontal wind velocity, cm s−1 is the injection height of resuspended particle source and was assumed to be 200 cm. Cowherd et al. (2006) studied the removal rates of fugitive dust by different vegetation types impacted by dust plumes created by Rabe Meadow Hwy50 04-2009 Tahoe City SR28 05-2010 Incline Village Secondary road 06-2010 600 80 Primary road vehicle volume 60 400 50 300 40 30 200 20 100 Secondary road vehicle volume 70 500 10 0 0 Time Fig. 1. Traffic volume variation measured at two primary roads and one secondary road in the Lake Tahoe basin. 280 D. Zhu et al. / Science of the Total Environment 466–467 (2014) 277–286 Fig. 2. TransCAD modeling of midpoints of road links in Tahoe City, CA. military vehicles traveling on unpaved roads. They found that PM emission rate (E) similarly exhibits an exponential decay: −kx EðxÞ ¼ Eð0Þe ð2Þ where the exponent k is a constant term that varies with different vegetation barriers and x is downwind distance from source. Estimated k values of 0.035 m−1 for dense trees, 0.0175 m−1 for long grass, and 0.0035 m−1 for short grass are based on their field results. Eq. (2) is similar to Eq. (1); the k in Eq. (2) should be linearly related with Vd in Eq. (1). This implies that Vd should increase with increasing k as vegetation density increases. Zhu et al. (2012) made PM deposition measurements for five different surfaces (dense long grass, grass cut, sagebrush, desert grass, no vegetation) and found that particle deposition velocity (Vd) increases with particle size and surface roughness. The Vd values for the three types of vegetation for PM2.5, PM10, and PMlarge (particles N 10 μm) are based on near-source PM deposition measurements at Ft. Riley, KS, and Hanford, WA (Zhu et al., 2012). Vd values were selected as 10.8 cm s−1, 6.3 cm s−1and 3.6 cm s−1 for PMlarge, PM10, and PM2.5 for Dense Trees respectively; 8.5 cm s−1, 5.1 cm s−1 and 2.1 cm s−1 for PMlarge, PM10, and PM2.5 for Open Trees respectively; 4.6 cm s−1, 3.2 cm s−1 and 1.7 cm s−1 for PMlarge, PM10, and PM2.5 for Shrubs, respectively. Eq. (1) was applied to the Tahoe area under certain wind speeds (U) and wind directions. The angle between the shortest path (which is perpendicular to the road) and wind direction is defined as the attacking angle θ (both the shortest path and wind are expressed as true-north based azimuth). Only an angle θ between − 90° and 90° is treated as a favorable wind direction for a specific traffic point. The actual dust travel distance X along the wind direction can be expressed as X = L / cosθ. L is the shortest distance to the lake for each traffic point and is a sum of L1, L2, and L3, which are the corresponding distances covering the Shrubs, Open Trees, and Dense Trees. D. Zhu et al. / Science of the Total Environment 466–467 (2014) 277–286 281 Fig. 3. Tree coverage (percentage) in the Lake Tahoe basin. All 7235 traffic sections were assigned to their nearest meteorological station. The mass of PM reaching the lake as a result of vehicle travel on the 7235 road segments in the basin after attenuation by the vegetation is estimated as: PM ¼ Xn Traffic volume Link length −1 ðV d1 L1 þ V d2 L2 þ V d3 L3 Þ exp UH cos θ i¼1 EF i ð3Þ where N U H Vd1 Vd2 Vd3 is the number of traffic segments is the horizontal wind velocity, cm s−1 is the injection height of resuspended particle source (200 cm) is the PM deposition velocity under Shrubs, cm s−1 is the PM deposition velocity under Open Trees, cm s−1 is the PM deposition velocity under Dense Trees, cm s−1. As mentioned above, EF has a winter and a summer factor, traffic volume is variable throughout the day, and the wind speed U and angle θ measured from the perpendicular to the road all change hourly based on the nearby meteorological station data. Thus, the five-year average (2005–2009) of PMfine, PM10, and PMlarge reaching the lake can be calculated by integrating Eq. (3) through time. The vegetation roughness seasonal change (loss of leaves in the fall for deciduous trees) was not considered in the PM deposition model. The Jeffrey pine– white fir group is the most widespread forest type in the Lake Tahoe basin, with deciduous trees like Aspen accounting for ~3% of forest composition (Beaty and Taylor, 2008). 3. Results and discussion Using Eq. (3) annual average PM10 deposition to the lake is estimated at 20 ± 10 Mg year−1, PMlarge deposition to the lake is estimated at 15 ± 7 Mg year−1, and PMfine (PM2.5) deposition to the lake ranges 282 D. Zhu et al. / Science of the Total Environment 466–467 (2014) 277–286 Fig. 4. Sample vegetation coverage of three vegetation type (Shrubs, Open Trees and Dense Trees displayed as white, gray, and black, respectively) and shortest path (dotted lines in the figure) from traffic points in the Tahoma region to the Lake. The black dots are 1/10 of the length and used to calculate the length coverage fraction in each vegetation category. from 0.23 ± 0.12 to 3.0 ± 1.5 Mg year−1. The PMlarge and PM2.5 EF values in Eq. (3) are based on roadside PMlarge concentration measurements, which is 137% of PM10 and the PM2.5 concentration is 1.4% to 18% of the PM10 concentration as measured in the Tahoe area by Kuhns et al. (2007) and Gertler et al. (2006), respectively. The annual total PM deposition to the lake from the vehicle travel in the Tahoe Fig. 5. Meteorological station locations around Lake Tahoe for the UC Davis REMOTE network. basin is estimated at 36 ± 12 Mg year−1. The annual PM10 deposition (to the lake) is approximately 2% of the ~1040 Mg of PM10 resuspended by vehicles traveling on ~1300 km of roadways in the basin, with an annual daily VKT estimated to be ~2.3 million. The annual total PM deposition (to the lake) is approximately 1.4% of ~2465 Mg total PM resuspended by vehicles traveling on paved roads in the basin. Table 2 summarizes the total PM (fine, coarse, and large) deposition to the lake with contributions from different counties in the basin. These results (Table 2) indicate that 99% of resuspended road dust is captured by the vegetation or deposited on the pathway leading to the lakeshore; however, some of that dust could still be transported into the lake via water runoff following deposition to the land surface. While this study concentrated on the atmospheric deposition of fugitive road dust, water runoff carrying the particles of road dust origin can contribute significantly to the FSP in the lake. CWB and NDEP (2010) report that in the Lake Tahoe basin the total suspended sediment (TSS) event mean concentrations (EMCs) from impervious roadways contribute ~30% of TSS loading in storm water transport to the lake. The contribution for upland fine sediment loadings from roadways is also reported to be ~30% (CWB and NDEP, 2010). Considering that upland water runoff contributes ~72% of FSP loading to the lake (CWB and NDEP, 2010), water runoff from roadways accounts for ~22% of FSP loadings to the lake. This suggests street sweeping or other collection efforts should be made to reduce the total PM load to the lake before it is available for transport either by resuspension or storm water runoff. Our model results indicate that 90% of total PM deposition occurs within 500 m of the lake. Thus, mitigation efforts (e.g., street sweeping) should be taken to ensure that these roads are kept as clean as possible, thus reducing the available TSS. For the winter period from December to April in the basin, the PM10 resuspended and subsequently deposited to the lake averages 14 Mg year−1. Approximately 66% of this PM10 can be attributed to the traction control material applied on the roads (and some track-out soil brought onto secondary roads by vehicles). Our analysis indicates that El Dorado County, CA (which includes the City of South Lake D. Zhu et al. / Science of the Total Environment 466–467 (2014) 277–286 USCG (Tahoe City) Tahoe Vista Sunnyside Cave Rock Rubicon Timber Cove (SLT) Fig. 6. Wind rose map from 1-year (2006) monitoring data for the six meteorological stations around Lake Tahoe. 283 284 D. Zhu et al. / Science of the Total Environment 466–467 (2014) 277–286 Table 2 Total PM (fine, coarse, large) deposition contributions and vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) from different counties around the lake. County El Dorado, CA Douglas County, NV Placer County, CA Washoe County, NV Carson City, NV Total Total PM deposition to lake (Mg year−1) Annual Winter Annual ratio 21 7.2 5.7 0.91 0.005 36 12 5.9 4.0 0.62 0.004 22 61% 20% 16% 2.6% 0.0% VKT VKT ratio 1,264,703 345,531 455,463 141,913 11,137 2,218,750 57% 16% 21% 6.4% 0.5% Tahoe) is the largest contributor (57%) to the total PM deposition to the lake attributable to resuspended material from roadways as this area accounts for 51% of the VKT in the basin and is in close proximity to the lake. Douglas County in NV contributed 21% of the total PM deposition and Placer County, CA, contributed 18% of total PM deposition, with 13% and 25% of basin wide VKT, respectively. Another factor that makes El Dorado County (including South Lake Tahoe) a dominant contributor of total PM deposition to the lake is the prevailing south/southwest wind in that region, which transports the PM towards the lake. Fig. 7 shows the annual PM10 deposition potential in the basin for 7235 traffic segments, taking into consideration the VKT, seasonal emission factors, wind speed and direction, distance to the lake, and vegetation barrier Fig. 7. Gridded annual total PM deposition potential for 7235 traffic segments, taking into consideration the vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT), seasonal emission factors (EFs), wind speed and direction, distance to the lake, and vegetation barrier density. Each colored group represents 20% of the TSP (Total Suspended Particulate) deposited to the lake, with classification based on cumulative 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, and 100% of deposition potential. D. Zhu et al. / Science of the Total Environment 466–467 (2014) 277–286 density. This figure also shows the traffic links with the highest PM deposition potential are located at the near-shore zones, which indicates that the distance from the road to the lake is a significant factor impacting the amount of PM deposition to the lake. As discussed above, the impact of vehicle trips on lake water clarity depends on seasonality, vehicle type, speed, proximity to the lake, and wind direction and vegetation barriers. Winter and summer seasons have different road dust PM emission factor and traffic volumes. The estimated year-round population of the Lake Tahoe Basin is approximately 56,000 residents with peaks exceeding 100,000 during summer months. Generally the highest annual daily traffic volumes in the basin occur in August. Analysis by Zhu et al. (2009) shows the wintertime road dust PM10 emission factor is five times that of the mean summer emission factor (EF); despite the higher summer seasonal traffic volume. Lower traffic counts in winter help to reduce the overall impact of resuspended road dust to the lake. Furthermore, midday (7:00– 15:00) accounts for ~ 70% of daily traffic flow on primary roads and secondary roads. As Kuhns et al. (2010) and Dolislager et al. (2006) reported and meteorological data from UC Davis REMOTE sites indicate, in the absence of strong synoptic systems (like winter storms), the near shore wind has a consistent diurnal pattern. During daytime, beginning with sunrise, on-shore winds dominate pushing peak emissions away from the lake, then after sunset and until the following morning off-shore winds dominate. The reduced nighttime traffic volume fortuitously reduces the direct airborne PM deposition to the lake even with off-shore winds dominating during that time. Even though direct airborne transport of PM to the lake is limited by the aforementioned processes, the high-volume vehicle-resuspended road dust from the daytime deposits on to road surfaces, curbs, shoulders, and nearby vegetation and soils; these dust deposits may still enter Lake Tahoe via water runoff or fugitive wind erosion processes, especially if the dust is deposited back onto road surfaces where it will be re-entrained again. This track-out effect helps replenish the silt loadings of the re-suspendable road dust (Kuhns et al., 2010). Fig. 8 displays cumulative VKT distribution as a function of distance from the lake in the Tahoe basin. Over 80% of the VKT is within 3000 m of the lake and 70% of the VKT is within 2000 m of the lake. Thus to mitigate PM10 deposition, street sweeping should be concentrated on roads closest to the lake. The Tahoe TMDL (CWB and NDEP, 2010) estimates that particles deposited from the atmosphere account for 15% of the loading of 75 × 1018 particles (1136 Mg based on 66 × 1015 particles per Mg) (CWB and NDEP, 2008) into the lake. In this study, we estimate that the mass of sediment reaching the air column over the lake from paved road dust sources is only 36 Mg due to near-field deposition Cumulative Distribution of VKT in the Lake Tahoe Basin Cumulative VKT (%) 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 285 and the predominance of onshore winds during peak travel times. The TMDL estimates are modeled deposition fluxes that represent all sources rather than just paved road dust, which is a subset of all sources. Although not likely to be a factor in the winter, the magnitude of unpaved road emissions is on the same order as paved road dust emissions as presented by CWB and NDEP (2008). Another source of differentiation may be due to the method of the LTADS deposition flux calculation. That model assumes a uniform aerosol concentration based on shoreline measurements across each of the four lake quadrants. Our results indicate that PMlarge and PMcoarse are rapidly depleted near their sources. In effect, this greatly reduces the deposition area of the lake and may account for a large part of the decrease. 4. Conclusions Using a bottom-up approach, a GIS analysis integrating road dust emission factors with geo-coded travel demand model traffic activities was combined with a near-source PM deposition model to estimate the annual dust deposition from paved roadway sources to Lake Tahoe. This approach provides more geographically accurate information of vehicle activity levels and emissions and improves the resolution of the spatial gradient of pollutant concentrations in the dispersion model for an airshed. Five years of wind measurements from six stations around the basin were linked to each road segment to account for local transport of resuspended road dust. Diurnal wind patterns had the fortuitous tendency of blowing road emissions away from the lake during peak traffic periods. Overall, only ~ 2% of emitted PM10 and 1.5% of TSP were estimated to reach directly the lake via atmospheric transport and deposition. An integrated assessment of the deposition potential for road dust emissions to reach the lake was also conducted. Proximity to the lake, prevailing wind directions, and traffic patterns played dominant roles in determining which roads had the greatest potential to contribute fine particles that could be transported to the lake. Overall, roads in El Dorado County (and in particular the City of South Lake Tahoe) had the highest attribution potential (67%) to generate PM from paved roadways that could potentially deposit to the lake. High VKT in South Lake Tahoe makes this area a major source of airborne road dust PM10 that can deposit into the lake via atmospheric transport. Incline Village and Tahoe City are estimated to be minor contributors to lake loading. The Tahoe TMDL model estimates that atmospheric-deposited particles account for 15% of the lake loading of 75 × 1018 particles (1136 Mg based on 66 × 1015 particles per Mg). In this study, we estimate that the mass of sediment reaching the air column over the lake from paved road dust sources to be only 36 Mg due to near-field deposition and the predominance of onshore winds during peak travel times. Street sweeping or other collection efforts should be made to reduce the total PM load to the lake before it is available for transport either by vehicle resuspension process or storm water runoff, since water runoff from roadways contributes 22% of FSP loadings to the lake. Street sweeping or other strategies to reduce the road dust loading also has the added benefit of improving ambient PM10 air quality in the Tahoe basin. This study provides new information on the potential contributions of fine particulate matter from roadways around Lake Tahoe and can be used to guide decision making on appropriate emission control strategies (e.g., street sweeping, anti-icing, reduced VKT) for the parts of the basin where they will be most effective (i.e., near shore roadways in Douglas and El Dorado Counties). 0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 Distance from Lake (m) Fig. 8. Cumulative VKT distribution as a function of distance to the lake in the Lake Tahoe basin. Acknowledgments This work was funded by the USDA Forest Service via a grant through the Southern Nevada Public Lands Management Act. We 286 D. Zhu et al. / Science of the Total Environment 466–467 (2014) 277–286 express our appreciation to the University of California, Davis for providing meteorological data and to Mr. Leon Jiang for GIS support. References Amato F, Pandolfi M, Viana M, Querol X, Alastuey A, Moreno T. 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