I. Title Page (1 page maximum) Title: Assessment of Fire Hazard/Risk in the Wildland Urban Interface “WUI” and Stream Environment Zones “SEZs” Subtheme this proposal is responding to Integrating Science Principal Investigator and Receiving Institution David Saah, Ph.D. Spatial Informatics Group, LLC 3248 Northampton Ct., Pleasanton, CA 94588 Phone: 510 427-3571 Email: dsaah@sig-gis.com Jason Moghaddas Spatial Informatics Group, LLC 3248 Northampton Ct., Pleasanton, CA 94588 Phone: (530) 284-7376 Email: jmoghaddas@sig-gis.com Jarlath O’Neil-Dunne Research Scientist Spatial Informatics Group, LLC 3248 Northampton Ct., Pleasanton, CA 94588 Phone: 510 427-3571 Email: jarlath@sig-gis.com Qi Chen, Ph.D. Senior Research Scientist Spatial Informatics Group, LLC 3248 Northampton Ct., Pleasanton, CA 94588 Phone: 510 717-9839 Email: qchen@sig-gis.com Brandon M. Collins, Ph.D. Research Scientist USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station 1731 Research Park Dr., Davis, CA 95618 Phone: (530) 759-1701 Email: bmcollins@fs.fed.us Emily Moghaddas, Ph.D. Research Soil Scientist USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station PO Box 15, Taylorsville, CA 95983 Phone: (530) 284-7376 Email: emoghaddas@fs.fed.us Tadashi Moody Research Scientist Spatial Informatics Group, LLC 3248 Northampton Ct., Pleasanton, CA 94588 Phone: 510 301-0030 Email: tmoody@sig-gis.com David Saah, Ph.D. Spatial Informatics Group, LLC 3248 Northampton Ct., Pleasanton, CA 94588 Phone: 510 427-3571 Email: dsaah@sig-gis.com Co-Principal Investigator Co-Principal Investigator Co-Principal Investigator Agency Collaborator Agency Collaborator Co-Principal Investigator Grants Contact Person 4a: Understanding current and future resource conditions through analysis of remote sensing data Funding requested: $ 170,105 Total cost share (value of $ 4,451 financial and in-kind contributions): Proposal: Tahoe Research Supported by SNPLMA 2010 II. Proposal Narrative (up to 7 pages, single-spaced) a. Project abstract (1 paragraph summary for public distribution) Around Lake Tahoe, sections of the Stream Environment Zone (SEZ), especially those that contain the terminal portions of streams feeding into the lake, are within the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) where potential impacts from wildfire are a key concern. A considerable effort has been underway within the Lake Tahoe Basin to mitigate these potential impacts. An understanding of how wildfire can impact both the WUI and SEZ, along with an assessment of mitigation efforts to date, is therefore critical. We propose a study to characterize conditions in the WUI and assess the current potential for crown fire initiation and probability of burning for all mapped SEZ and WUI areas in the Lake Tahoe Basin under extreme or “problem” fire weather conditions. In addition, we will evaluate the effects of all known planned fuels treatments over the next decade on the crown fire initiation and conditional burn probability in all mapped SEZ and WUI regions in the Lake Tahoe Basin. b. Justification statement: explain the relationship between the proposal and the subtheme(s) While there have been several published stand-level studies on the effects of fuel treatments on stream characteristics (Beche et al. 2005; Stephens et al. 2004), we could find no peer-reviewed studies which have examined effectiveness of fuel treatments on the reduction of landscape-level fire-behavior impacts on Stream Environment Zones (SEZs) in the Lake Tahoe Basin. The WUI is intermixed with SEZs, particularly along the lower reaches of these streams; therefore, understanding how wildfire can impact both the WUI and SEZs, including the interaction between the two, is critical from both an ecological and public hazard perspective. Without this key body of research, there is little information to guide land managers in consistently and effectively designing and implementing treatments. This study addresses Subtheme 4a: Understanding current and future resource conditions through analysis of remote sensing data. We are specifically targeting components of section 4 within subtheme 4a: develop derivative products to identify catastrophic fire risk, extent and distribution of defensible space in the urban intermix and Wildland Urban Interface, or hydrologic networks for application to TMDL project planning, floodplain management, or characterization of stream geomorphology. By using the recently acquired LiDAR and WorldView-2 data, in conjunction with existing datasets and field verification, we propose to assess historical patterns of fire severity, as well as the current potential for crown fire initiation and conditional burn probability in all mapped SEZ and WUI areas in the Lake Tahoe Basin under extreme fire weather conditions. Additionally, we will examine the potential effects of all known planned fuels treatments over the next decade on potential crown fire initiation and conditional burn probability in these areas. Finally, this project will generate ancillary datasets, including LiDAR based high-resolution wildfire behavior maps and associated vegetation structure modeling input data that can be utilized for analysis across multiple disciplines. If funded it is our intent to actively make these products available to all collaborative efforts. c. Concise background and problem statement The Wildland Urban Interface (WUI), or region where homes and structures are built within wildland vegetation (Radeloff et al. 2005), is an area of particular concern for land managers. The WUI not only introduces potential environmental threats (e.g., future development, exotic species, pollutants from runoff, wildfire ignitions), it often constrains management decision space (e.g., silvicultural/fuels activities, wildfire suppression actions) (Collins et al. 2010). In the Lake Tahoe Basin these issues are intensified, owing to the interactions between a fairly expansive WUI, high concern to protect lake water quality, and potential damage to human communities and other resources from wildfire. Here, as in many fire-prone communities, decision makers and the public debate the tradeoffs between environmental concerns and reducing the risk of severe wildfire (Long 2009). II-1 Proposal: Tahoe Research Supported by SNPLMA 2010 Recent large fires in the Lake Tahoe Basin, including the Gondola Fire (2002) and the Angora Fire (2007), and a 2007 wild fire in the Sunnyside area of Lake Tahoe have shown the vulnerability of the SEZ and the WUI in the basin to the effects of rapid growing, high severity wildfires. Together, these fires impacted hundreds of homes, cost millions of dollars to suppress, put thousands of lives at risk, and burned, with high severity, several important SEZs (USDA 2007a; Safford et al. 2009). Lake water quality and clarity have been identified as a high management objective and understanding the potential influence of wildfire on water quality is critical to the basin. SEZs are designed to help protect water quality within the lake by providing filtration, canopy cover (shading), and functional in-stream habitat for beneficial aquatic species. What happens when the values these SEZs are designed to protect are severely altered by the effects of high severity fire? Stream Environment Zones are often excluded from prescribed fires and mechanical fuel treatments due not only to regulation and policy, but also to the real and perceived risks of soil erosion, sedimentation, nutrient transport, water quality reduction, loss of shading canopy, or aquatic habitat degradation. Historical reconstructions of fire occurrence in several SEZs throughout the northern Sierra Nevada (including Lake Tahoe Basin) found little difference between riparian and upland forests (Van de Water and North, 2010). However, when left untreated, these SEZs can remain susceptible to the impacts of high severity fire. This type of fire may pose the same set of risks possible due to fuels treatments, but may also cause highly magnified impacts due to the timing, intensity and scale of a fire event, and possibly be subject to a delayed or lengthier recovery period. For the LTB, there is little published literature on fuel treatments in SEZs and a general lack of knowledge about what constitutes “uncharacteristically severe” fire in SEZs (Moody et al. 2009). However, there are many examples of untreated stream zones on National Forest lands embedded within fuel treatments that subsequently burned at high-severity levels. The 2006 Boulder Fire, which burned the eastern slopes of the Sierras above Antelope Lake on the Plumas National Forest, is one local example in which dense untreated fuels in near-stream areas helped to ‘wick’ the fire through the stream corridor and adjacent fuel treatment. In cases such as this, protecting sensitive areas by excluding fuel treatments can threaten the very qualities for which they are specially designated. When landscapes are highly dissected by stream channels, a substantial proportion of proposed and actual fuel treatment areas may fall within SEZs, possibly impacting their efficacy. To address this issue, a management program that includes fuel treatments intended to reduce fire severity and protect SEZs has been developed. While the Lake Tahoe Basin has taken several steps to implement the 2007 “Lake Tahoe Basin Multi-Jurisdictional Fuel Reduction and Wildfire Prevention Strategy” (Nevada Fire Safe Council 2009; USDA 2007b), the outcomes of this program from an implementation and fire regime standpoint are still unclear. d. Goals, objectives, and hypotheses to be tested Primary Research Goal: What are the effects of the WUI and SEZs on the fire behavior, potential for crown fire initiation and conditional burn probability in the LTB? Research Questions: Question 1: How does current treatment implementation on the ground in the LTB compare to treatments planned for the next decade? Question 2: How has fire affected WUI areas and SEZs historically? Question 3: Given the current status of the WUI, SEZs, and fuel treatment implementation, what is the current potential for crown fire initiation and conditional burn probability in the WUI and SEZ areas of the LTB? Question 4: How would full implementation of planned treatments (next decade) change the potential for crown fire initiation and conditional burn probability in the WUI and SEZs of the LTB? II-2 Proposal: Tahoe Research Supported by SNPLMA 2010 Research Objectives: Objective 1: Examination of fuel treatment compliance and implementation in the LTB Objective 2: Analysis of severity distributions within WUI areas and SEZs within historical fires in the LTB. Objective 3: Fire behavior and probability analysis for the LTB, summarized for all WUI areas and SEZs. Objective 4: Fire behavior and probability analysis for the LTB (simulated with future treatments complete) summarized for all WUI areas and SEZs. e. Approach, methodology and location of research This project will encompass all lands within the Lake Tahoe Basin Management Unit. Our general approach will be to develop new and refine existing GIS data layers for analysis of fire behavior and probability within the LTB, including using LiDAR and WorldView-2 data to develop inputs for fire behavior and probability models. Our analysis of the modeling outputs will be focused on SEZs and WUI areas within the LTB. Existing conditions vegetation and fuel characteristics including vegetation type, past wildfires and treatments, canopy cover (CC), height to crown base (HTCB), canopy bulk density (CBD), and fuel model (FM) will be mapped using a combination of LiDAR data, WorldView-2 data, existing GIS datasets, and field visits to treated and untreated areas. A detailed stream network will be generated from the high spatial resolution LiDAR DEM for delineating the SEZs. The LiDAR and Worldview-2 imagery will be combined to classify vegetation and buildings, based on which WUI zones will be mapped. This LiDAR derived SEZ and WUI maps will be compared with existing WUI and SEZ delineations. The Tiffs (Toolbox for LiDAR Data Filtering and Forest Studies) software will be used to filter the raw point cloud from the LiDAR data to generate Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and Canopy (or Vegetation) Height Model (CHM) (Chen 2007, Chen et al. 2007a, Chen 2009). Elevation, slope, and aspect will be directly extracted or derived from the LiDAR DEM. The stand boundaries will be delineated from LiDAR CHM and multispectral imagery assuming that a stand has similar canopy structure and spectral signature using image segmentation or clustering algorithms. Canopy cover will be directly derived by thresholding the CHM and calculating the percentage of pixels above that threshold of canopy height. An individual tree crown delineation algorithm (Chen et al. 2006; Chen 2007) will be used to generate basin-wide spatially-explicit individual tree crown map. The individual tree crown canopy structure metrics derived from LiDAR point cloud or CHM will be combined to the vegetation type mapped from multispectral imagery to develop a vegetation type dependent foliage biomass model for estimating crown bulk density. The lidar metrics that are not sensitive to tree crown delineation errors will be used to estimate foliage biomass (Chen et al. 2007b). Height to live crown will be estimated by analyzing the vertical distribution of point cloud and calibrated with field mead height will be extracted by overlaying the stand boundaries and tree height information. Based on the expertise of local and regional fire managers, LiDAR analysis, field verification, characteristics observed in the field verification, we will assign initial fuel models to best match surface fuel structural characteristics described in Scott and Burgan (2005). Values for canopy bulk density within a particular vegetation class will be scaled to canopy cover using previously published values for mixed conifer forests (Scott and Reinhardt 2005). We will utilize the existing FLAMMAP (Finney 2006) and FARSITE (Finney 1998) fire modeling applications to assess the potential for crown fire risk and probability (conditional) of burning under current conditions and several scenarios, for the entire LTBMU with an emphasis SEZs and WUI’s. A landscape file for use in FLAMMAP and FARSITE modeling will be developed and calibrated using actual fires from the Lake Tahoe Basin (Angora and Gondola) and associated fire weather. Once layers II-3 Proposal: Tahoe Research Supported by SNPLMA 2010 are calibrated, existing potential for crown fire initiation and conditional burn probability will be assessed using calculated 97th percentile weather data obtained from local remote access weather stations (RAWS). This analysis will establish current conditions. Using the landscape files developed above, a second analysis will be completed using a scenario where all known fuel treatments planned for implementation over the next decade are assessed for overall effectiveness at modifying crown fire potential and conditional burn probability for all WUI and SEZ areas in the Lake Tahoe Basin. An analysis of current condition and potential changes resulting from implementation will be completed as completed in previous studies (Moghaddas et al. 2010) and demonstrated in section V, figures 1 and 2. This project will focus on addressing the identified outstanding questions using systematic, scientifically sound, previously published methods (Moghaddas et al. 2010; Ager et al. 2007a, b) and providing base data derived from the LiDAR acquisition to be used in other fire related projects. Specifically, the team working on this project will complete the following tasks: Task 1. Pre-Work Conference(s): Meet with the TRPA, LTBMU, CALFIRE, and other local management agencies to review the proposed Scope of Work as submitted in this proposal within one week of both parties signing the contract. This meeting will take place either by phone or in person. Modify Work Plan tasks, deliverables, report formats, and other related logistics based on review. Produce final Scope of Work and Plan of Work schedule. Task 2. Project Management: SIG will be the prime contractor and provide project management services, including monthly and annual progress reports to TRPA and regular communication and coordination via meetings (including conference calls) with the TRPA. Task 3. Vegetation Structure Characterization of the SEZ and WUI areas: Use the available highresolution LiDAR data and multispectral imagery to characterize, develop and refine spatially explicit Stream Environment Zones (SEZs) and wildland-urban interface (WUI) maps. Task 4. Analysis of Current and Planned Fuel Treatments: Map current on-the-ground and planned fuel treatments from the “Lake Tahoe Basin Multi-Jurisdictional Fuel Reduction and Wildfire Prevention Strategy” (USDA 2007). Compare current levels of implementation to overall plan for next decade. Task 5. Fire Severity Analysis: Conduct a fire severity analysis of historical fires in SEZs and WUI areas in the Lake Tahoe Basin. This assessment would examine landscape-level trends in burn severity within SEZs and WUI areas in actual local fires (e.g. Angora and Gondola) using the existing Region 5 Fire History and Severity Geodatabase. The analysis would incorporate past fuel treatments in an attempt to discern differences in fire severity between treated and untreated SEZs. Task 6. Development of Fire Behavior Modeling Inputs: Use the available high-resolution LiDAR data and multispectral imagery along with secondary datasets (including but not limited to LTAB and MSIM field plots) to develop and refine spatially explicit fuel characteristic maps for use in FARSITE and FLAMMAP modeling. Task 7. Baseline Fire Behavior Modeling: Assess fire behavior, potential for crown fire initiation and probability of burning in the Lake Tahoe Basin under current conditions using an established method for identifying fuel treatment effectiveness at the landscape level (Moghaddas et al. 2010). This analysis would be conducted under historical moderate, high and extreme weather conditions as derived from local Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS). Summarize outputs for SEZs and WUI areas (by neighborhood or community) within the LTB. Sample outputs are shown in Figures 1 and 2; similar figures would be developed for the entire LTBMU or specific areas of interest within the LTBMU. II-4 Proposal: Tahoe Research Supported by SNPLMA 2010 Task 8. Treatment Fire Behavior Modeling: Assess the future potential fire behavior, potential for crown fire initiation, and probability of burning in the LTB under a simulated landscape with full implementation of all treatments planned for the next decade on public and private lands. This analysis would be conducted using the same methodology and under the same historical moderate, high and extreme weather conditions as in Task 6 above. Sample outputs are shown in Figures 1 and 2; similar figures would be developed for the entire LTBMU or specific areas of interes within the LTBMU. This task may also assess the effectiveness of new CA Forest Practice Rules on protecting stream zones from high severity fire. Task 9. Draft Final Report: Based upon information and findings assimilated in tasks 1 through 8, a draft final report will be generated. This report will be written so that the target audience (defined by TRPA) will be able to easily interpret its contents. The report will include a discussion on the effects of potential fire hazard on erosion, nutrient loading, and possible impacts to lake clarity. Task 10. Final Report and submission of article for review in peer reviewed scientific publication: Within 30 days of receiving comments on the draft final report, a final copy will be prepared and delivered. Report will be formatted for and submitted to a peer reviewed journal. f. Relationship of the research to previous and current relevant research, monitoring, and/or environmental improvement efforts There has been extensive work in the Lake Tahoe Basin to implement fuel treatments both within and outside the WUI. To date, we could not find publications which assess the effectiveness of this effort in the peer reviewed literature. While several stand level studies have looked at the impact of wildfire and prescribed fire on Sierran stream characteristics (Beche et al. 2005; Stephens et al. 2004), we could find no peer reviewed publications that systematically study the overall effectiveness of existing and planned fuel treatments on SEZs across the landscape. The proposed study would provide this critical missing information. g. Strategy for engaging with managers and obtaining permits If the proposal is funded, collaborators will work directly with agency fuels, vegetation management, and contracting personnel to identify and characterize existing and planned fuel treatments on federal lands in the Lake Tahoe Basin. We have already communicated with Kyle Jacobson, Forest Fuels Specialist and Susie Kocher, UC Cooperative Extension about this proposal and how to disseminate results. We will work directly with the Lake Tahoe Basin Fire Safe Council, Nevada Fire Safe Council, California State Parks, Tahoe Regional Planning Agency, Nevada Department of Conservation & Natural Resources, University of Nevada Cooperative Extension ,USDA (Lake Tahoe Basin Management Unit), private landowners, and Home Owner Associations to identify and characterize current and planned fuel treatments within the Lake Tahoe Basin. Preliminary results will be presented directly to interested stakeholders through direct meetings, in cooperation with University of California Cooperative Extension, and via the on-going California Fire Science Collaborative. In addition, final results and reports will be made available on-line in pdf format to the public. Project data will be derived using provided LiDAR data, existing GIS databases, and field visual verification. There will be no treatments specifically implemented for this study, no destructive sampling, no ground disturbing activity, and no permanent marking of any research plots or points in the field, greatly limiting or eliminating the need for further CEQA and NEPA analysis or sampling permits. II-5 Proposal: Tahoe Research Supported by SNPLMA 2010 h. Description of deliverables/products and plan for how data and products will be reviewed and made available to end users SIG will create and manage a website (SharePoint site) that will be accessible to the TRPA, all agency collaborators, and all team members. This site will serve as a distribution point for project documents and data. Deliverables Pre-Work Conference(s): Final Scope of Work and Plan of Work schedule. This will be made available via the web on the project site. Project Management: Monthly and annual progress reports to the TRPA. These will be made available via the web on the project site. SEZ and WUI Vegetation Structure Characterization: GIS data and maps for refined, spatially explicit stream environment zone (SEZ) and wildland-urban interface (WUI) data layers that contain vegetation structure charachterizations. Analysis of Current and Planned Fuel Treatments: GIS data and maps of all current on-theground fuel treatments, as well as all treatments planned for the next decade. Fire Severity Analysis: GIS Data, maps, and graphs of wildfire severity patterns and distributions within historical fires, and within SEZs and WUI areas for these fires. Fire Behavior Modeling Input Development: GIS data and maps for the following landscape, vegetation, fuel characteristics: stand boundaries, canopy cover, stand height, crown bulk density, height to live crown, elevation, slope, aspect, and fuel model. Baseline Fire Behavior Modeling: GIS data and maps for potential current fire behavior characteristics in the LTB: Crown Fire Activity, Flame Length and Conditional Burn Probability Treatment Fire Behavior Modeling: GIS data and maps for potential future fire behavior characteristics in the LTB: Crown Fire Activity, Flame Length and Conditional Burn Probability. GIS data and maps demonstrating changes in fire behavior and burn probability under full implementation treatment scenario. Cost Sensitivity Analysis: Complete a sensitivity analysis to determine if it is cost effective to treat additional areas to reduce risk further. Draft Final Report: Draft report summarizing findings from tasks 3-8. Final Report and GIS Data: Within 30 days of receiving comments on the draft final report, a final copy will be prepared and delivered. GIS datasets will be made available for download on project site. Scientific Publications: Final report will be formatted for and submitted to a peer reviewed journal II-6 Proposal: Tahoe Research Supported by SNPLMA 2010 III. Schedule of Milestones and Deliverables Milestone/Deliverables Annual accomplishment reports Start Date September, 2011 End Date September, 2012 Description Prepare annual summary of accomplishments in September. October, 2011 September, 2012 Submit brief progress report to Tahoe Science Program coordinator by the 1st of July, October, January, and April. Pre-Work Conference(s) July 2011 August 2011 Meet with TRPA and representatives from local land management agencies discuss proposal Project Management July 2011 October 2012 Spatial Infomatics Group will complete all project management, including preparation of submission of progress reports August 2011 December 2011 Use the available high-resolution LiDAR data and multispectral imagery to develop and refine spatially explicit Stream Environment Zones (SEZs) and wildlandurban interface (WUI) maps October 2011 November 2011 Inventory, map and compare all currently completed fuel treatments, to all planned fuel treatments for next decade. Fire Severity Analysis November 2011 December 2011 GIS Data, maps, and graphs of wildfire severity patterns and distributions within historical fires, and within SEZs and WUI areas for these fires. Develop Fire Behavior Modeling Inputs August 2011 December 2011 Use the available high-resolution LiDAR data and multispectral imagery along with secondary datasets to develop and refine spatially explicit fuel and vegetation characteristics Baseline Fire Behavior Modeling January 2012 March 2012 March 2012 April 2012 Modeling the potential fire behavior of the planned implementation of the “Lake Tahoe Basin MultiJurisdictional Fuel Reduction and Wildfire Prevention Strategy” Cost Sensitivity Analysis: April 2012 May 2012 Complete a sensitivity analysis to determine if it is cost effective to treat additional areas to reduce risk further. Draft Final Report: May 2012 July 2012 Based upon information and findings assimilated in tasks 3 through 8, a draft final report will be generated. August 2012 September 2012 Within 30 days of receiving comments on the draft final report, a final copy will be prepared and delivered. GIS data will be made available online. September 2012 October 2012 Progress reports SEZ and WUI Identification Analysis of Current and Planned Fuel Treatments Treatment Fire Behavior Modeling Final Report and GIS Data Scientific Publications Assess current fire hazard in terms of crown fire potential, flame length, and conditional burn probability. Report will be formatted for and submitted to a peer reviewed journal. III-1 Proposal: Tahoe Research Supported by SNPLMA 2010 IV. Literature Cited Ager A.A., McMahan A.J., Barrett J.J., McHugh C.W. 2007a. A simulation study of thinning and fuel treatments on a wildland-urban interface in eastern Oregon, USA. Landsc. Urban Plan. 80:292-300. Ager, A.A., Finney, M.A., Kerns, B.K., and Maffei, H. 2007b. Modeling wildfire risk to northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) habitat in Central Oregon, USA. For. Ecol. Manage. 246:45-56. Beche, L.A., S.L. Stephens, and V.H. Resh. 2005. Prescribed fire effects on a riparian and stream community in the Sierra Nevada: Dark Canyon Creek, California, USA. Forest Ecology and Management 218:37-59 Chen, Q., 2009. Improvement of the Edge-based Morphological (EM) method for lidar data filtering, International Journal of Remote Sensing, 30(4), 1069-1074. Chen, Q., P. Gong, D.D. Baldocchi, and Y. Tian, 2007b. Estimating basal area and stem volume for individual trees from LIDAR data, Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 73(12), 1355-1365 Chen, Q., 2007, Airborne lidar data processing and information extraction, Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 73(2), 109-112 (cover story) Chen, Q., P. Gong, D.D. Baldocchi, and G. Xie., 2007a, Filtering airborne laser scanning data with morphological methods, Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 73(2),175-185 Chen, Q., D.D. Baldocchi, P. Gong, and M. Kelly, 2006. Isolating individual trees in a savanna woodland using small footprint LIDAR data, Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 72(8), 923932 Collins BM, Stephens SL, Moghaddas JJ, Battles J. 2010. Challenges and approaches in planning fuel treatments across fire-excluded forested landscapes. J For 108: 24-31. Finney, M.A. 1998. FARSITE: fire area simulator — model development and evaluation. U.S. For. Serv. Res. Pap. RMRS-RP-4 Finney MA. 2006. An overview of FlamMap modeling capabilities. Pages 213-220 in Fuels management - how to measure success. U. S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Portland, OR. RMRS-P41. Long, J. W. 2009. Introduction to the effects of fuels management in the Tahoe Basin. Pp. 10-40 In Effects of Fuel Management in the Tahoe Basin: A Scientific Literature Review. Final Report, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station and the Tahoe Science Consortium. Davis, CA. Moghaddas, J.J., B.M. Collins, K. Menning, E.E.Y. Moghaddas, and S.L. Stephens. 2010. Fuel treatment effects on modeled landscape level fire behavior in the northern Sierra Nevada. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 40: 1751–1765 Moody, T.J., S.L. Stephens and M.A. Moritz. 2009. Effects of fuels management on future wildfires in the Lake Tahoe Basin. Pp. 83-114 In Effects of Fuel Management in the Tahoe Basin: A Scientific Literature Review. Final Report, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station and the Tahoe Science Consortium. Davis, CA. Nevada Fire Safe Council. 2009. Tahoe Fire and Fuels Team 2008 Progress Report: SNPLMA Funded Projects and Other Accomplishments. 20p. Radeloff, V.C., R. B. Hammer, R.B., S.I. Stewart, J.S. Fried, S.S. Holcomb and J.F. McKeefry. 2005. The wildland-urban interface in the United States. Ecological Applications. 15(3): 799-805. IV-1 Proposal: Tahoe Research Supported by SNPLMA 2010 Safford, Hugh D. David A. Schmidt, and Chris H. Carlson. 2009. Effects of fuel treatments on fire severity in an area of wildland–urban interface, Angora Fire, Lake Tahoe Basin, California. Forest Ecology and Management 258 (2009) 773–787. Scott, J.H., and Burgan, R.E. 2005. Standard fire behavior fuel models: a comprehensive set for use with Rothermel’s surface fire spread model. U.S. For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRSGTR- 153. Scott, J.H., and Reinhardt, E.D. 2005. Stereo photo guide for estimating canopy fuelcharacteristics in conifer stands. U.S. For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-145. Stephens, S.L., Meixner, T., Poth, M., McGurk, B, Payne, D. 2004. Prescribed fire, soils, and stream water chemistry in a watershed in the Lake Tahoe Basin. International Journal of Wildland Fire 13: 27-35 Stratton, Richard D. 2004. Assessing the Effectiveness of Landscape Fuel Treatments on Fire Growth and Behavior. Journal of Forestry, Oct./Nov., vol. 102, no. 7, pp. 32-40 United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2007a. An Assessment of Fuel Treatment Effects on FireBehavior, Suppression Effectiveness, and Structure Ignition on the Angora Fire. R5-TP-025. 38p United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2007b. Lake Tahoe Basin Multi-Jurisdictional Fuel Reduction and Wildfire Prevention Strategy. United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Tahoe Regional Planning Agency, Nevada Tahoe Resource Team, Nevada Division of Forestry, Nevada Division of State Lands, Nevada Fire Safe Councils, California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, California Tahoe Conservancy, California StateParks, North Tahoe Fire Protection District, North Lake Tahoe Fire Protection District, Tahoe-Douglas Fire Protection District, Lake Valley Fire, Protection District, Meeks Bay Fire, Protection District, South Lake Tahoe, Fire Department, Fallen Leaf Fire Department. 80p Van de Water K.M. and North M. 2010. Fire history of coniferous riparian forests in the Sierra Nevada. Forest Ecology and Management 2260: 384-395. IV-2 Proposal:: Tahoe Researrch Supportedd by SNPLMA 2010 V. Figu ures Figure 1. Sample outpu ut (Moghaddas et al. 2010) showing s changge in potentiall fire size on tthe Plumas Naational Forest und der existing co onditions (left panel) and with planned fueel treatments ccompleted (rigght panel) undeer 97th percentile weather w condittions. Prevailin ng wind is from m the southwesst. Study area sshown is 45,000 acres. 3 Proposal:: Tahoe Researrch Supportedd by SNPLMA 2010 Figure 2. Sample outpu ut (Moghaddass et al. 2010) showing channge conditionaal burn probabbility on the P Plumas National Forest F with plaanned fuel treeatments comp pleted (right ppanel) under 997th percentile weather condditions. Prevailing wind is from the southwestt. Areas of darrker green indiicate a reductiion in conditioonal burn probability under mod deled condition ns. Study area shown s is 45,000 acres. 4