ELSEVIER Journal of Mathematical Economics 24 (1995) 371-381 How complicated are betweenness preferences? Zvi Safra a, Uzi Segal b~c,* aFaculty of Management, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 69978, Israel h Department of Economics, University of Toronto, 150 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5S IA, Canada ’ Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA Submitted July 1993; accepted January 1994 Abstract In this paper we suggest a complexity-based taxonomy of some families of preferences over lotteries. We define the complexity of a given family to be of order n if the question whether or not a given preference belongs to this family can be determined by comparing lotteries who differ on only n outcomes at most. We first show that the complexities of the expected utility family, the weighted utility family and the betweenness family are all of order 3. We then show that the complexity of singletons is always equal to 3. Finally, we provide examples of families of preferences with arbitrary orders of complexities. The paper also provides a better understanding of the large body of experimental results in the theory of decision making under risk. Keywords: Non-expected utility; Complexity; Experiments JEL classification: D81; C90 1. Introduction In recent years there has been a growing interest in non-expected utility theories of decision making under risk, mainly because they explain a wide range of * Corresponding author. 0304-4068/95/$09.50 0 1995 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved SSDI 0304-4068(94)00693-8 372 Z. Safia, U. Segal/ Journal of Mathematical Economics 24 (1995) 371-381 behavioral patterns and experimental results that are inconsistent with expected utility theory. Several families of transitive non-expected utility preferences have been identified and axiomatized. They include the betweenness family (Chew, 1983, 1989; Fishburn, 1983; Dekel, 19861, the rank dependent expected utility family (Quiggin, 1982; Yaari, 1987; Segal, 1993), the weighted utility family (Chew, 1983), the quadratic utility family (Machina, 1982; Chew, Epstein and Segal, 1991, 19941, and the disappointment aversion family (Gul, 1991). One of the purposes of this paper is to suggest a complexity-based taxonomy of some of these families. The idea is that a family of preferences is of high complexity level if complicated lotteries are needed in order to determine whether a given preference relation belongs to this family or not. Complicated lotteries are lotteries with many prizes. More specifically, we define the complexity of a given family to be of order IZ if the question whether or not a given preference belongs to this family can be determined by comparing lotteries who differ on only n outcomes at most. (The formal definition appears in Section 2.) In this paper we concentrate on the complexity levels of preferences that are sub-families of the betweenness family: the expected utility and the weighted utility relations, together with the betweenness family itself and prove that all these families are of complexities of order 3. We then consider families which are singletons (not necessarily of betweenness preferences) and show that all these families have complexities of order 3, independently of the preference relation that belong to such a singleton. Finally, we provide examples for families of preference relations with arbitrary orders of complexity. These families are all subsets of the expected utility family. Another purpose of this paper is to provide a better understanding of the large body of experimental results in the theory of decision making under risk. Most of the experiments are restricted to three-prizes lotteries (see for example, MacCrimmon and Larsson (1979). Even the famous Allais paradox and the common ratio effect experiments deal with lotteries of three prizes only. Clearly, to reject the conjecture that a given preference relation belongs to, say, the expected utility family it is sufficient to find one such experiment in which the choices (restricted to three-prizes lotteries) contradict the known properties of this family. However, in order to determine whether a given preference relation belongs to the expected utility family, many more choices should be investigated. Nevertheless, it may well happen that we do not have to make all possible comparisons to conclude (assuming continuity, monotonicity and transitivity) that the preference relation belongs to the expected utility family. A natural question is how many, and what choices should be examined? A partial answer to this question is given by our results, since they imply that, for some sub-families of the betweenness family, all that is needed is to compare lotteries which differ in three outcomes at most. A stronger result holds if one is interested in a unique preference relation (and not in a family of preference relations). We show that, for al preference relations, 2. safra, U. Segal / Journal of Mathematical 373 Economics 24 (I 99.5) 371-381 the information given comparing pairs of lotteries which differ in the probabilities of three outcomes is always sufficient. Note that this result does not depend on the preference relation being a member of the betweenness family. 2. Definitions Let L be the set of lotteries over the compact interval [a, bl E R. Finite lotteries are denoted (x,, p,; . . . ; x,, p,), where Cp, = 1 and pi > 0, i = 1, . . , n. Let L, = 1(x,, p1; f . . ; x,, p,)} be the set of lotteries with n different outcomes at most. For y=(y ,,..., y,)~[rt, blm, x1,..., x,~[a, 61 and q=(q,,...,q,,,) such that Cq, < 1 and q,, . . . , q, a 0, let A"- '(y,q){x,, . . ., x,,} be the set of lotteries of the form (yl, q,;...;y,, q,; xl, p,;...; xnP1, pn_,; x,, 1 -c?==,qi - c:,:p,). For XEL, let Fx be the cumulative distribution function of X, given by F,(x)=Pr(X<x). For X, YEL and (YELO, 11, let c-uX+(l-a)Y be the lottery with the distribution function aFx + (1 - aIF,. It follows immediately that for X=(x1, pl;. ..; x,, p,> and Y= (y,, 4,;. . .; y,, q,), ax + (1 - a)Y = (x 1, UpI;. . . ; x,, ffpn; y,, (1 - “14,;. . .; y,, (1 - dq,). be a preference relation over L, with strict preference + and indifference N. We assume throughout that 2 is complete, transitive, continuous, and monotonic with respect to first-order stochastic dominance. ’ The functional V : I_.+ R represents the preference relation 2 if for every X, YE L, X 2 Y if and only if V(X) > V(Y). Let L’ c L. An indifference set through X in L’ is the set of all lotteries in L’ that are indifferent to X. We say that k satisfies betweenness on L’ if for every X, YE L’ such that X 2 Y and for every (YE [O, 11, X 2 aX + (1 - (Y)Y 2 Y. By continuity, this condition is equivalent to the following requirement: For all X and Y such that X N Y and for all (YE LO, 11, X N aX + (1 - (Y)Y N Y. For a discussion of betweenness preferences, see Chew (1983) and Dekel (1986). The expected utility functional, given by Let 2 V(X) =/4x) dFx(x) satisfies the betweenness functional, given by V(X) = / 4x) condition. (1) So does Chew’s (1983) weighted utility dF&) (2) / W(X) d&(x) We say that the functional ’ The preference [t/z, F,(z) Q F,(z) at Eq. (2) is proper weighted if it is not expected utility. relation 2 is monotonic with respect to first-order and 3z such that F,(z) < F,(z)] * X + Y. stochastic dominance if 374 Z. Safra, U. Segal/ Journal of Mathematical Economics 24 (1995) 371-381 3. Betweenness-supporting preferences As mentioned in the Introduction, we are interested in the question how much information is needed before we can determine that a given preference relation belongs to a certain family, or that it satisfies a certain set of axioms. It turns out that, with respect to betweenness functionals, it is insufficient to require that the preference relation is of one of the above discussed forms on all lotteries with no more than n possible outcomes. This claim is formalized in the following theorem. Theorem 1. Let the preference relation 2 satisfy property LY on L,, CY= betweenness, expected utility, weighted utility. Then 2 does not have to satisjj property ff on L. 2 * such that 2 * satisfies Proof. Let V” represent the preference relation property (Y on L. Let X” be the lottery such that Fx* is the uniform distribution on [a, b]. Let 11. II be the L, norm. Define L~={XEL:IIF~-F,*(I <(b-n)/4n}. Note that L, f~ L*, = 0. Denote z, = L \L*,. For X E Lz, define the sets X, = {YE L : X weakly dominates Y by first-order stochastic dominance} and X, = (YE L : Y weakly dominates X by first-order stochastic dominance}. Obviously, z,, X,, and X, are closed sets. The set L is compact (recall that the segment [a, b I is compact), hence so are the sets z,,c X, and z, fl X,, for all X E L*,. For such X, define V,*(X) = max{V*(Y) : YE L, I? X,} and V:(X) = min{V*(Y): YES, nX,}. By construction, V,*(X) < V*(X) < v;(x). Define a functional V on L such that for Y EL,,, V(Y) = V*(Y). On L*,, we want V to satisfy the following conditions: It should be monotonic with respect to first-order stochastic dominance, should not satisfy betweenness, and for every X E L*,, V:(X) G V(X) G VU*(X). Clearly, such functions exist. A preference relation 2 represented by such a functional is monotonic, does not satisfy betweenness (hence also weighted utility and expected utility), but satisfies property (Y on L,. 0 Note that the proof holds for the disappointment aversion family as well, since this family of preferences is a subset of the betweenness class. Theorem 1 shows that the behavior of a preference relation on the sets L, does not uniquely determine its overall behavior. We therefore have to consider sets of the form A”- ‘(y, q){x,, . . . , xn). Definition 1. We say that the complexity of a certain family of preference relations 9 is of order n if n is the smallest integer for which the following statement holds: Let 2 be a preference relation. If on every A"- '(y, qxx,, preference relation 2 agrees with a member of ST, then 2 ELM. . . . , xn} the 375 Z. Safia, U. Segal/ Journal of Mathematical Economics 24 (I 995) 371-381 Let 0 9-a be the set of betweenness l ST, be the set of expected l FW preference relations. utility preference relations. be the set of proper weighted utility preference relations. Clearly, if the preference relation 2 satisfies the betweenness axiom, then it satisfies it on all the sets A”- ‘(y, q){x,, . . . , x,). Also, if it satisfies the independence axiom (and therefore, belongs to the set F,), then it can be represented by an expected utility functional on each of these sets. The same result for the weighted utility functionals follows from the following lemma. Lemma 1. Consider the continuous and monotonic preference relation A”- ‘(y, q){x,, . . , x,,}. The following two conditions are equiualent. 2 on 1. The order 2 can be represented by a proper weighted utilityfunctional. 2. All the indifference sets of 2 are hyperplanes intersecting at one n - 3 plane. Proof. (1) * (2): Denote u(xi) = ui and w(xi) = w,. It follows from Eq. (2) that indifference sets are planes of the form CPi’i ==/3; I I thatis, cpi[ui-pw,]=O Let p # p’. The vector (pl, . . . , p,) solves the set of equations CPi[‘i-Pwil cp,[ui-p’wJ =O =o if and only if it solves the set of equations cpiL+ = 0 cpiwi = 0. This solution is independent of p and p’. (2) * (1): Suppose that all the hyperplanes containing the indifference curves of 2 intersect at the (n - 3)-dimensional plane K, spanned by the points x’, . . .) xnp2, where xi = (xi,. . ., XL_,>, i = 1,. . . , n - 2. The hyperplane defined by these n - 2 points and by p* = ( pT , . . . , p,*_ 1> E A contains the indifference curve through p*. It is given by n-2 Pn-I= CPjPj+@n-I j=l 376 Z. Safra, U. Segal/Journal of Mathematical Economics 24 (1995) 371-381 the vector p = ( /3,, . . . , p,_ 1>solves the set of linear equations In particular, n-2 xi n-1 = Cp,x;+p,_, i=l,...,n-2 j=l I I P,*-1= n-2 c PiPI” +&-I j=l Using Cramer’s rule we obtain that @_;, (say) is the ratio between two linear functions of p:, . . . , p,*_ 1. The value of p,, _ 2 can be used as a representation function of 2 , hence the lemma. •I Remark. Although it is probably well known, we could not find a proof (or a formal statement) of this lemma in the literature. Theorem 2. The complexity of the betweenness family of preference order 3. Proof. We prove the Theorem relations is of by induction. Let n > 3. Suppose that for every and x =x1,. . . , xnr x1 < . . . <x,, the order 2 satisfies the betweenness hypothesis. Let A” = on A’-‘( y, q)(x) A”( y, qh,, . . . , x,+ t}. We want to show that the order 2 on A” satisfies betweenness. ) E Int(A”). Consider the two hyperplanes Hi = Let p* =(pT,...,pn*+l p, + 1): p, = p:}, i = 1, 2. By the induction hypothesis, the order on H, I,.“, {(P and Hz satisfies betsveenness. Let Gi be the indifference set through p* in Hi, i = 1, 2. Note that all points in G, are indifferent to all points in G,. By betweenness, G, and G, are (n - 2)-dimensional planes. By monotonicity, G, + G,. Otherwise, it follows that for every ( pr , pz, p3, . . . , pn+ ,)- p* and for every E>O, there is no S>O such that (p;“+~, pz, ~~-a,..., p,,+,)-p*. Let [* >0 such that there exist (~7, p2, pz +(-l)‘f*, p4,..., pn+,)~G1 i = 1, 2. Let H,, be the (n and (p,, p;, P: +(--1)‘5*, p4,...,pn+,)~G2, 1)-dimensional hyperplane spanned by G, and G,. Let (p,, p2, pg + 5, P4r.. .7 p,~+,)EH12suchthat1~lE(0,5*).LetH,={pEA:p,=p~+~}. Again by the induction hypothesis, the order on H, satisfies betweenness. The sets H, n G, and H3 n G, are (n - 3)-dimensional planes. Denote the affine set spanned by these two sets by H( J ). Its dimension is at least n - 2. Since the order on H3 satisfies betweenness, the set H(c) is (a subset) of an indifference set in H,, all its members being indifferent to p*. It also follows that its dimension is n - 2. By construction, it is a subset of H,, n Hz. Since the dimension of this last set is n - 2, it follows that H( 5) = H,, n H3. It thus follows that in a neighborhood around p*, p* is indifferent to all points in HI2 such that their third co-ordinate is different from p:. By continuity and mono- y=y,,...,y,, 4=41,..*,qm, Z. Safia, U. Segal /Journal of Mathematical Economics 24 (1995) 371-381 377 tonicity it follows that in a neighborhood of p*, the indifference set through p* is planar. Next we show that the indifference sets are hyperplanes. Let p E Int( A) with the planar portion I of the indifference set through p around it. Let H be the hyperplane containing I. If all points in H are indifferent to p, then by monotonicity H contains all the indifference set through p. Suppose that there exists p’EH such that p’*p. Let (Y=max{cr* :Vcz~[0, a*], ap’+(l-a)p -p}. The maximum exists by continuity. By the definitions of I and H, this maximum is positive. Let p = Zp’ + (1 - Z)p. There exists a neighborhood of j5 where the indifference set through 3 is planar. Since there is E > 0 such that the chord [(G - l )p’ + (1 - Z + E)P, Cup’+ (1 - Cr)p] is in this indifference set, there exists E’ > 0 such that the chord [ (Yp’ + (1 - Z>p, ((;u + E’)P’ + (1 - (Y~‘)p] is in this indifference set, in contradiction with the definition of U. It thus follows that all points in H are indifferent to p and the proof of the induction is complete. In particular we obtain that if X and Y belong to I>,, (and have the same possible outcomes) such that X N Y, then for every cy E [O, 11, aX + (1 - cr)Y N X. If X and Y do not belong to L, for any n, then it follows by continuity that X N Y implies, for all CYE [0, 11, that crX + (1 - cr)Y N X. 0 Theorem 3. The complexity of the sets FE and .Fw is of order 3. Proof. The proof is based on the geometric preference relations. properties of the two families of Expected utility. Suppose that for every y, q, and x = (x,, x2, x,), the order 2 on A’(y, q)(x) satisfies the expected utility hypothesis. By Theorem 2, the order satisfies betweenness globally. If it does not satisfy expected utility, then it follows by continuity that there are three lotteries X, Y, 2 EL, such that X N Y but +X + $2 + $Y + $Z. (Otherwise, the preference relation 2 satisfies the independence axiom and can therefore be represented by an expected utility functional.) Assume, without loss of generality, that X, Y, and Z have the same possible outcomes. It thus follows that in the (n - l)-dimensional simplex A{ x1,. . . , x,J there are two non-parallel indifference hyperplanes, say Cj’= 1 a/pi = /3’, j = 1, 2 where for some i and k, CY~/CY~ # $/LX;. Suppose, without loss of generality, that i = 1 and k = 2. Consider the simplex A2(x,, . . . , x,, indifference sets, p:,..., P,T)IX,F x2, x3). This simplex contains two non-parallel given by CT= 1 CY,‘p,= p’ - c:=, a/p:, j = 1, 2, a contradiction with the assumption of the theorem. Weighted Utility. Suppose that for every y, q, and x = (x,, x2, x,), the order 2 on A2(y, q){ x ] can be represented by a weighted utility functional. As before, it follows that the order satisfies betweenness globally. If it cannot be represented by 378 2. Safra U. Segal/ Journal of Mathematical Economics 24 (1995) 371-381 a weighted utility functional, then it follows by continuity that there are x1,. . . , x, such that three indifference hyperplanes in A”- ‘{x1,. . . , x$ do not have a common intersection. (Otherwise, Chew’s (1983) axioms are satisfied for all finite lotteries and by continuity, for all lotteries). Let Hj = {(p,, . . . , p,> : Za/pi = /3j}, j = 1, 2, 3 be three such indifference hyperplanes. Let p* = (pT,. . . , p,* > E H’ and consider the sets Ki -{(PI, pt ,..., pi*-1, pi, pF+l,... ,p,*-,)), i=2,...,n - 1. We can assume, without loss of generality, that the three hyperplanes H’, H2, and H3 are close enough to each other so that they are all intersected by By the assumption of the Theorem, on each of these sets the order &,...,K,_1. can be represented by a proper weighted utility functional. Therefore, indifference sets in Ki intersect at a point. Denote it by qi. Note that qi = (qI, p:, . . . , P;_~, qi7 P?+19***, p,*_ 1>. Clearly, q2,. . . , q”-’ E H’ n Hz f7 H3 := H’23. Moreover, since H’, H 2, and H3 are hyperplanes, their intersection is a plane. The dimension of the hyperplanes is n - 2. Therefore, to prove the claim of the Theorem, it is sufficient to show that H’23 is of dimension n - 3. This follows readily from the fact that the n - 3 points q3 - q2,. . . , q”- ’ - q2 are linearly independent. For this, note that for all j Z i, the i-th co-ordinate of q’ is p*. On the other hand, since qi is on the continuation of an indifference set through p* in Ki, qi #p;. •I 4. Singletons Suppose that the set of preferences 9 consists of one relation only, 2 *. We show in this section that the complexity of the singleton F is of order 3. This result is equivalent to the following: If two preference relations 2 1 and 2 2 agree on all the sets A’(y, q){x,, x2, x3), then they are the same. Theorem 4. Let 9 = { 2 *}. Then the complexity of F is of order 3. Assume that 2 1 is different from 2 2 even though they agree on all two-dimensional (conditional) simplices. By continuity there exist two lotteries X and Y such that X + lY, Y > 2X, both X and Y have the same n + 1 outcomes (x1,..., x,-r such that xi <x,,+~ ) and both are interior points of the corresponding n-dimensional simplex. We show that this is in contradiction with the assumption that 2 1 and 2 2 agree on two-dimensional (conditional) simplices. We use an induction argument and, with no confusion, use the above notations for the general induction step. Hence, assume that 2 1 and 2 2 agree on all (n - l)-dimensional (conditional) simplices (n 3 3) and, by way of negation, there exist two lotteries X and Y as before. Identify X with the vector ( pl, p2, . . . , p, + 1> and Y with 1. Without loss of generality we may assume that pi b qj for (417 q27...,qn+1 j=l, 2. Now consider the set of lotteries fi={(pl,y2, r3,...,rn+I):rjER, j =3,..., n + 11. Clearly, X and G (and Y and IV> belong to an (n - l)Proof. Z. Safra, U. Segal/ Journal of Mathematical Economics 24 (1995) 371-381 379 dimensional subsimplex on which, by assumption, t I and t 2 are identical. By monotonicity, the lottery W, = (p,, q2, p3,. . . , p,, + 1 + (p2 - q2)) satisfies W, 2,Xandthelottery W,=(p,,q,,q,,...,q,+,-(p,--q,))satisfiesYkLWW,. Hence, for both i, W, 2 i X and Y 2 i W, which, since the simplex and W are connected sets, imply the existence of a lottery W in L? such that W N 1X, i = 1, 2. However, W > ,Y and Y > ,W is in contradiction with the induction assumption. 0 5. Special cases In this section we consider some special cases of the functionals we already discussed. With the aid of these special cases we demonstrate the existence of classes of preference relations with arbitrary orders of complexity. Definition 2. The preference relation satisfies constant relative risk aversion if (x1, p,;...;x,, “((“Xl, p,) t(y1, 41;...;ym, p1;...; Ax,, p,) t (AY,, 4m) q,;...;*y,, 4,) for all A > 0. Lemma 2. The complexity of the expected relative risk aversion is 4. utility preferences satisfying constant Proof. It is well known that an expected utility preference relation satisfies constant relative risk aversion if and only if its utility function is either of the form U(X) = ux”l + b or a In x + b, a > 0. We now show that if 2 is expected utility with the convex utility function U(X), then on all the sets A’(y, q){x,, x2, x3} it agrees with an expected utility relation with constant relative risk aversion. To see this, observe that if 2 is expected utility, then one indifference curve determines the whole preference relation. Suppose that x1 <x2 < xj and let p* such that u(x,) =p* u(x,> + (1 -p*)u(x,). We are looking for a number (Y that solves the equation x2* = p* xl* + (1 - p* )x;. That is, 4x3) - 4x2) =p* _ 4 9) - 4x1) xy-xz XT-X; (3) Observe that for (Y= 1 the left-hand side is greater than the right-hand side, while as (Y--) m, the right-hand side approaches 1 and is therefore larger than the expression on the left-hand side of the last equation. Moreover, the right-hand side of Eq. (3) is increasing in (Y. To see this, note that for & > (Y, the function x’ is less concave then x”I. Taking an affine transformation of x6 such that U-X,?= x,? 380 Z. Safra, U. Segal/ Journal of Mathematical Economics 24 (1995) 371-381 for j = 1, 3 now implies that the right-hand side of Eq. (3) is larger with 15 than with cr. By continuity, there exists a unique number CYthat solves Eq. (3). Next we show that the complexity of this set of functionals is 4. Suppose that the preference relation 2 agrees with expected utility with constant relative risk aversion on all the sets A3(y, q){x,, . . . , x4}. By Theorem 3 it follows that t is expected utility with a utility function u. Let x1 < . . . <x4 and let p* such that u(xJ =p*u(x,) + (1 -p,*)u(x,), i = 2, 3. Jet f, be the function x”I for (Y> 0 and In x for (Y= 0. The monotonicity of the right-hand side of Eq. (3) with respect to (Y implies that there exist unique oj, i = 2, 3, such that fcJx4) -f&J p* = f&J -f&J However, since on A3(y, q){x,, . . . , x4} the preference relation agrees with constant relative risk aversion, it follows that CQ = a3 = CY*. By changing the value of x3 we thus obtain that the utility function u coincides with the function fa*. 0 Suppose now that a = 0 and b = 1 and consider the sets of utility functions given by 2Yn= iu(x) =a,+x+ i=o,2 ,a.., 1 . II. 1 1 [yy- 1, >+7 ~UjX’x+ i=2 1. It. FZn 1 9 CC 1 Let S, be the set of the expected utility preferences with a utility function out of Z&. Similarly to the proof of Lemma 2, it follows that the complexity of the set of relations F,, is of order n + 2. Note, however, that fl:=,Zn = {u(x) = e’}. By Theorem 4, the complexity of the set of the expected utility preferences with the utility functions u(x) = ex is of order 3. The last example demonstrates a discontinuity in the definition of complexity. This discontinuity should not be considered a flaw in our definition since, even in other situations, there seems to be nothing that relates continuity with complexity. For example, (simple) smooth functions are always the limit of (complex) everywhere non-differentiable functions. 6. Conclusions This paper offers a natural definition of complexity of preference relations over lotteries. We used it to check the complexity of some betweenness functionals, but the definition has nothing to do with linearity of indifference curves. It can be Z. Safia, U. Segal/Journal of Mathematical Economics 24 (199.5) 371-381 381 applied to quadratic or to the rank-dependent functionals. We showed that expected utility, weighted utility, and general betweenness preferences are relatively simple (according to our definition). On the other hand, adding further restrictions, for example, constant relative risk aversion, may complicate a simple preference relation. Acknowledgments We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and of the Israeli Institute for Business Research. References Chew, S.H., 1983, A generalization of the quasilinear mean with applications to the measurement of income inequality and decision theory resolving the Allais paradox, Econometrica 51, 1065-1092. Chew, S.H., 1989, Axiomatic utility theories with the betweenness property, Annals of Operations Research 19, 273-298. Chew, S.H., L.C. Epstein and U. Segal, 1991, Mixture symmetry and quadratic utility, Econometrica 59, 139-163. Chew, S.H., L.G. Epstein and U. 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