An Inquiry into the Demographic Factors Important in
Presidential Elections
An Honors Thesis
(HONORS 499)
by
William WP Atkins
Thesis Advisor
Ball State University
Muncie,
Indiana
April 1992
Expected Date of Graduation
-
May 1992
-
.ABI'
INTRODUCTION
Anyone can become
of the opportunity
an example
spoken as
Mothers repeat these words to
to their
them
constituents.
available in
their children.
Even
I
America.
Politicians mouth
text books
will contain these "words of wisdom"
schools
often
words are
These four
President.
in
elementary
but are they true?
to answer because the meaning of the words
This question is hard
must be discovered before their truth may be discerned.
First,
what is
meant by
part of the sentence
easiest
President?
This
to define since
is probably
the
it is universally
acknowledged to be the President of the united States.
The other
parts of the sentence are more difficult to define.
Accordingly,
of
more than one definition
in an attempt
the words
meaning of the
sentence.
to find
will be used for some
a true
formulation of the
One definition of "become" will be "be
The second meaning will be "campaign for".
elected".
term "can" will also have two possible def:Lnitions.
The
It
might mean "has an equal chance to" or it might be interpreted as
"has a chance to".
Finally,
Since there
the
are a
word "anyone" must be
great many
Copnstitution to ever be
people who
President,
defined more precisely.
are forbidden
it is obvious that
by the
the term
"anyone" must be interpreted differently to allow for any hope of
a true
statement.
The definition
that will be used
is
"anyone
meeting the legal requirements of the office".
-.
These
definitions provide four different formulations which
will be considered:
1.
"Anyone meeting the legal requirements of
President."
be elected
equal chance to
has an
the office
2•
"Anyone meeting the legal requirements of the office has an equal
3.
to campaign for President."
chance
"Anyone meeting the legal
electec~
requirements of the office has a chance to be
4.
requirements of the
the legal
"Anyone meeting
Pr,esident."
a
office has
chance to campaign for President."
METHODS
Therefore,
approach a
to
certainty more than one method will be employed for this
greater
it
that are
divulge results
to say the least.
less than certain,
Since each
study.
employed will
any method
Presumably,
solutions.
allow easy
nature does not
of this
An inquiry
is hoped that numerous
uncertain
its application
method will have problems in
veracity.
In
methods will have
this way,
information be oincreased but also,
differing areas of
quantity of
only will
not
hopefully,
the quality.
The first of these methods will be a study of characteristic
qualities of our
the Presidents.
definitely
the
Presidents
are found
features
with
a special focus
on those
in
This study will result in a compilation of similar
this century.
features of
Presidents,
then
Admittedly,
requirements
to
there will
for
these
the Presidency,
greatly resemble
be
features are not
a greater
but
each other
likelihood
if
the
in these
that these
features are important considerations for presidency potential.
A method with more concrete results will be the discovery of
people's opinions as
will
be
used,
prevalence of
but
recorded by previous
other polls,
such
discriminatory attitudes
polls.
as those
will
Voting
polls
concerning the
also be
utilized.
The results of this method will probably give a far more complete
evaluation of the factors
involved in presidential elections.
primarily finances,
The system of campaigning,
studied for any prejudicial factors,
knowledge
in
previous
having much
Not
completely
it is
this area
of
intentional or otherwise,
administration.
regulations or
the
will also be
can be
unknown what
expected of this segment of the study.
the Concentric
Finally,
Henry McKay,
be
Zone Theory
with
results
the
stage,
at this
and the rate at which
they are increasing their
not
offer definite
any
such as
the
type in political
of a certain
might
and
methods
number of individuals
This
will
This theory will then be
previous
of the
necessary
data deemed
additional
bE~havior,
originally an explanation of criminal
adapted to political possibilities.
combined
Shaw and
of Clifford
results
but
positions
representation.
will
give strong
tendencies in one direction or another.
PERSONAL OPINIONS
Obviously,
this
paper is
namely
being written
author's
view,
are more
important in an election than
characteristics
that certain
include race,
sexual orientation,
although
career
choice
any other issues.
religious preference,
these are
might also
be
of the
demographic characteristics
by no means
characteristics that might be important.
one's
in support
It
These
gender and
all of
the
is conceivable that
important
or
even socio-
economic status.
Few people
-
are important..
would argue
In fact,
that none of
it seems
these characteristics
to be common
knowledge that
these
that nobody
widespread
the
information about
This
elections.
do influence
factors
quantify
attempted to
has
characteristics
the
any of
That
is
country
is
a whole.
as
is so
kno"iledqe
another qoal of this paper.
Basically,
gradually
becoming
correspondingly,
minority
Thus,
in
tolerant
more
minority
of
most voter's
minds
the office of President is
groups
are opening for
the presidency
However,
has
compared
and,
these
tremendous
to other
offices.
the last to become available to
By "minority group"
a minority group.
"::he
that
more political positions
groups.
importance
believes
author
this
I
am referring to
those
groups that suffer the effects of prejudice based on the group to
which they belong,
such as women,
This paper has,
experiences.
that would
Black man.
Jackson simply because he
is a
Some of them still deny any prejudice on their part,
"There are
will never win.
so many bigots
I
This author
country
The same types of statements
been made concerning the candidacy
Vice-President.
in this
just don't want to waste my vote
on someone who can't possibly win."
have
and
this author has friends and relatives
never vote for Jesse
saying things like,
that Jackson
etc.
been shaped by my own views
of course,
For instance,
Blacks,
of Geraldin Ferraro for
also knows people who use
the term
"Jew" synonomously with "cheat" and "steal".
Nearly all of the
so
this is
election.
case
their
not a
people
case of
I
have mentioned thus
prejudice that
does no i :
far do vote,
affect the
Presumably there are bigots who do not vote,
opinions
probably
do
not
affect
in which
elections.
Unfortunately,
I
find any figures on
been able to
have not
vote,
percentage of bigots that
the
so the figures on bigotry in the
general population have been used instead.
friends,
experiences with
Besides
how
Considering
presidential elections,
small
the
can
margins
be
in
dissatisfied
possible that those
it is
news spots
have seen
a candidate was his choice of
wherein the only question asked of
religion.
I
with one candidate's religion could actually determine the result
of
the
Likewise,
election.
dissatisfaction
any
with
other
of a candidate could also lose the election for that
demographic
candidate.
I
expect to find that anyone meeting the
of the office has
the United States.
show that some
an equal chanse to
However,
others have chances
that are
still increasing.
being elected
that are slim at best.
Fortunately.
while
I
hope
and the heterogeneity of these
likely to
win election
Hopefully,
statistics in this paper will
presidency is
to the
provide a basis for projections on future elections,
the first
of
that this paper will
no chance of
to show that the number of people,
people,
campaign for President
it is expected
actually have
legal requirements
also
such as when
female President might be elected.
HISTORY
This
section of
the
assertions previously made,
of
-
prejudice
information
in
should
the
be
paper
but
history
helpful
information to be presented.
is
not
meant
to
prove
rather to give a brief
of
in
the
United
Sta.tes.
understanding
the
any
overview
This
current
From the beginning of our country's
history until the 1820's
let alone hold office.
or
private property
areas.
very few people were eligible
Church membership and ownership
of a
Additionally,
certain value
prevented
t.his
Despite
at this
time,
considered
by popular
homosexuality
many
Black
was illegal
responsible enough to
a wider
which enfranchised
of the population,
other reasons.
disenfranchised for
the
1962).
electoral reform
socio-economic strata
from
~rackson
presidential electors by 1828 was
vote in all but two states(Dulce,
by
Of course,
winning his first bid for the presidency in 1824.
method of choosing
in most
were required
The rest were chosen
This system
legislators.
state
of land
only half of the states used a popular vote
for determining presidential electors.
the
to vote,
people were still
slavery still existed
and
be trusted
were
womE~n
not
power to
with the
vote.
GForeigners were often barred from better paying jobs and
forced
to live in slums.
example
of the
The
opinions of Samuel Morse were one
widespread prejudice
against Catholics.
Morse
believed that the Catholics were plotting to overthrow the United
States government
using immigrant armies.
Besides Morse,
°
M n k 's Awf u l'-----=D-=i::...:s=--=.c-=l=-:o:...:::.s-=u:.:r:...e=s_o=--=f_t=-=-=h-=e'----=-:H=-:o:...t.=.-=e-=l:...-.-...=D-=i=--e=--=u'-.:N:.:.-=:u,.::n:.:n~e=r--"YL.
was
an example of the Anti-Catholic sentiment.
accused the Catholic Church
of thousands of copies.
the role
is
the
which
sold hundreds
Perhaps the most significant
example of
of hatred against minorities in early American politics
Know-Nothing
successfully ran
-
of Montreal
This work,
of various atrocities,
Maria
for
movement.
various offices
This
on
political
a platform
primarily based on Anti-Catholic sentiment(Dinnerste:Ln,
faction
that
1988).
was
By 1865 the 13th Amendment had outlawed slavery,
and in 1870
Black men were supposedly guaranteed the right to vote.
it
would be nearly another hundred years before this
in a
enjoyed
due to
uniform manner
Actually
freedom was
s eg-rega t i on and
lingering
Even in the 1800's
discrimination in many partts of the country.
It was not until 1920 that women were
women were unable to vote.
guaranteed the right to vote by the 19th Amendment.
Al Smith
In 1928
President of a major party,
out
reprints
propaganda.
allegiance
Pope.
This
Kennedy.
the
of
Maria
One
major
that a
the Democrats.
complaint
Catholic
against
Al
in the 1960
made Kennedy
President of the United States(Dinnerstein,
hate-
other
Smithwas
have to
the
a foreign
eleci:ion of
John
could not overcome
Al Smith's campaign
which
Anti-Catholic bias
among
President would
complaint resurfaced
Unfortunately,
This election brought
writings
Monk's
for
Catholic candidate
became the first
the first
Catholic
1988).
This is only an overview of what this author considers to be
the
worst
and/or most
significant
examples
of prejUdice
discrimination in the
history of the
Obviously this is not
a comprehensive listing nor are
only examples relevant to
this study.
United States of
These examplE?s
and
America.
these the
are given
to show the gradual lessening of various discriminatory effects.
PRESIDENTIAL CHARACTERISTICS
Some characteristics recur in
the United States.
and White.
-
For instance,
With little
debate,
Presidents have been Christian.
a study of the Presidents
every President has
been male
one could claim that all
Some,
however,
of
of the
would dispute the
Founding Fathers,
religion of the
a minor matter as
but this is
Ftegardless of
the electoral situation was different at the time.
religious choices,
Founding Fathers'
the
able
election through
to win
of our Presidents have been Christian.
Protestant(Whitney,
Only
possible exceptions,
all
All but Kennedy have been
1990).
one of the
Presidents has been
only one has never married,
seven of
have been
legislature controlled
the state
Discounting these
process of the time.
they would
divorced,
Buchanan(Whitney,
the 16 Presidents have
Reagan,
1990).
~ince
and
1900
been Vice-President previously,
although only two have won election to the presidency rather than
succedding
upon
the prior 24.
less elite
narrow
of
the
previous
been Governors compared to 11 of
be a gradual opening of
population.
Presidents.
and
is still
of Presidents in this century
than that of earlier
2,
office to a
thE~
Although national recognition
the experience
broadening
resignation
These and the other statistics in Tables 1,
show what appears to
important,
or
death
six of the 16 have
President.
3
the
Presumably,
is more
this is a
of those who really have a chance to become President
even if the office is still dominated by certain groups racially,
religiously,
etc.(Stanley,
1992).
PUBLIC OPINIONS
The
information for
this
section came
primarily from
American Profile by Floris Wood for Gale Research,
of it is confirmed
by other organizations and
Inc.,
otherwise stated,
but much
publications such
as Gallup Polls and Congressional Quarterly publications.
-
An
polling information is from 1989.
Unless
One of these
object to
the populace
10% of
said that
from 1985
polls
would strongly
11% would mildly object and
a Black dinner guest.
80%
in 1989 respondents were asked if they
would not object at all.
believed that discrimination was responsible for various problems
for
Blacks,
poor housing,
such as
42% responded
positively and 58% did
was responsible.
Additionally,
not responsible
that genetics were
19% believed that
for these difficulties, while
These
difficulties of Blacks.
say "the only factor"
questions did not
etc.
not believe discrimination
81% believed
genetics were responsible for the
but just a factor toward
still the answer in regards to genetics seems to
these problems.
this
education levels,
lower
author to represent an
attitude that is
at least slightly
racist.
Those
not,
are
opinion toward
however,
Blacks.
the only
statistics
Another question asked
concerning the right to White segregation.
on
public
about attitudes
8% of the respondents
agreed strongly with the right of Whites to practice segregation,
14%
agreed
majority,
slightly,
55%,
segregation.
of
and
disagreed
In a
the respondents
disagreed
23%
strongly
similar vein,
would object
slightly.
with
Whites'
another poll revealed
to their
bare
to
that 18%
42%
to a
said
would object to their children attending a school with more
than half Black attendance.
said
right
children going
school where half of the children attending were Black.
they
A
they
would
approve
In another poll,
of
laws
against
21% of those polled
Black
and
White
intermarriage.
-
If
people are this
concerned about association with Blacks,
how
much
more
would
In
fact,
positions?
seeking
they
one
to be
Blacks
l-eadership
in
asked regarding
question
The
was
17% said no
the office.
Blacks
whether
or
not
party who
a Black candidate of their
respondents would vote for
was qualified for
to
question was
presidency.
the
83% who
object
with a corresponding
This 17% is even with a candidate who is assumed
would.
Apparently,
qualified.
the race is the only objection for
this 17%.
Blacks
not,
are
however,
are also looked down
discrimination.
Women
the
at least in
population,
that
of
portion
disagree but
who
80%
of the population.
they would
vote for
qualified for the office,
Unfortunately,
candidate.
86%
is
3%
country and
candidate of
20%
agreed
There are,
to men.
a
with
segment of
thE~
is still
20%
substantial
when asked if
their party
who was
of the respondents said they would.
14% said they would not
This
on by a
As for the presidency,
a woman
faced
those polled,
Of
women should leave running the country
course,
group
regards to leading
positions of responsibility.
other
only
the
better
vote for this hypothetical
than
the
hypothetical Black
candidate but still very disheartening.
Besides
prejudice.
race and gender,
sexual orientation
Questions were asked regarding
is a source of
homosexuals speaking
in one's neighborhood and being allowed to teach in college.
would be
in favor
neighborhood,
occurrence.
-
even
worse.
of allowing
while
When it
33%
22%
would
a homosexual
be
against
to
spE~ak
allowing
comes to teaching college the
in
78%
their
such
an
numbers look
of respondents would not approve of homosexuals
teaching in a university.
minded when
This sampling looks open
Only 16%
compared with attitudes about homosexuality in general.
of respondents
feeling
felt
felt that homosexuality
it was sometimes wrong,
homosexuality
that
is
wrong,
was not
with
and 4% almost always wrong.
74%
Considering
the
always
wrong.
interest shown in the sex life of candidates for President,
that a homosexual could have any hope of
doubtful
Doubtless,
6%
bE~ing
it is
elected.
some people would cite marital infidelities as a good
thing if the other candidate was a homosexual.
final area
The
will
of discrimination
Corresponding
questions were asked
to
the questions
about Atheists being
being allowed to teach in college.
of greater
allowing
for
positions
Atheist
54% of
them
those
to teach.
homosexuals,
allowed to speak
and
univers:~ty
In
polled were
respondents were
their neighborhood.
speak.
This is barely
will focus upon
about
as 5% more
to speak in
to
we
this section
Atheists seemed to be victims
hatred than homosexuals
against allowing Atheists
were
First,
focus is religious preference.
Atheists.
upon which
in
favor of
73%
teaching
allowing
an
higher than the 46% who would
not approve and it is 13% lower than the 67% who would approve of
a homosexual college teacher.
Moving
to Catholics and Jews,
different format.
teaching
and
-
Rather than asking anything specific,
speaking
general question.
the questions were asked in a
questions,
Specifically,
the pollsters
those polled
their feelings about
these groups on a
was
a temperature
referred
to as
a
more
were asked to rate
scale of 0
scale,
used
like the
99
1:0
being
99.
This
warmest,
0
6.
Briefly,
other hand,
5,
and
this author interprets the data to show a steady 5%
Catholics,
Jews.
below 30 for
rate their feeling
that
tables 4,
full statistics are presented in
The
coolest.
steady rate with 2% in 1986,
have a less
on the
in 1988
3%
and 5% in 1989.
Basically,
the
that
and
statistics,
Catholics,
minority
the
most
Admittedly,
the
Even
desirable.
popular
in
be ill-favored by small segments
are seen to
population.
than would be
probably
to show
toward various
population
the
are still less favorable
groups
Jews
opinions of
are presented
these statistics
all of
these
of the
temperature scale makes comparison
of
the figures on Jews and Catholics with other groups imprecise
at
best.
polls show
little
Regardless,
it
that Bklacks,
chance of
author's opinion
is this
women,
being elected
homosexuals,
and
that these
Atheists have
presidency in
to the
the near
future.
CAMPAIGNING
In the
beginning of
much different than
the
our country's history
it is today.
For one
of party
caucuses in
exclusive domain
campaigning was
thing,
nomination was
Congress until
election of 1824 when state caucuses defiantly offered
candidates
rather
organizations.
relatively
their
---
have
going
Additionally,
aloof from
friends.
campaigns
than
Of
their
course,
contained
People probably notice
at
along
that time the
campaign,
throughout
veritable
it more
with
leaving
our
torrents
now because it
their
the
their own
national
candidates were
such things
nation's
of
to
history
mudslinging.
occurs on
their
However,
ever-present televisions.
part of campaigning
would say
that
point campaigns
different from those previously(Whitney,
have
campaign
costs,
steadily
risen(Dunn,
to
partially
lose the
due to
election,
dollars for his campaign(Asher,
Considering
the
cost
totally
have
started
years
Also,
1992) .
television advertising,
1980 Carter
In
1972).
been
much
some as
election actually takes place(Stanley,
before the
Some
1990).
many candidates
candidacy sooner,
declaring theior
dollars
campaign
the Kennedy
Since
de,bates.
until the 1960 Nixon-Kennedy
from
that
not really a
television was
while Reagan
spent: 18
spent
have
million
21 million
1984).
and
the
length
of
time
spent
campaigning by some of the candidates it is obvious 1:hat one must
either be
incredibly
without the costs it
wealthy or
have
wealthy backers.
would be difficult for most
enough time off work to actively campaign.
that
the
current
interests.
system
is
biased
A middle class person
Thus,
strongly
pE~ople
Even
to take
this study find
to ... ard
would be unable
weal thy
to afford to
campaign even if that person somehow had the national recognition
necessary to get elected.
GRADUAL ADVANCEMENT THEORY
Clifford
Shaw and Henry McKay
expanded upon a theory first
propounded by Ernest Burgess to explain criminal
theory,
commonly referred
Zonal Theory,
divided
holds that
to as
zone just outside of it,
the Concentric Zone
large cities,
into concentric zones.
behavior.
Theory or
particularly Chicago,
The center of
This
are
the city and the
usually business and factory areas,
have
the highest crime rates,
Each zone progressing away from the center is
living conditions.
gradually
better,
reasdon for this
the lowest rents and generally the worst
in
particularly
phenomenon is
of
their
Discrimination
do not
the city
Thus,
give
cultural
rise to
have adapted
this theory to
that
since
that areas of the
crime rates in comparison to
city
one another
those who work themselves out of the ghettoes
to not bring criminal behavior
much like the other
with them.
In fact,
they
inhabitants of their new living
has been observed with
Unfortunately,
1942)
political viabi:ity.
has pretty well proven
stay constant in their
obvio~s
problems.
is a large reason for immigrants beng the primary
the Zonal Theory
it is
yet
conflicts
thE~se
inhabitants of these unpleasant areas of cities(Shaw,
I
have
are often immigrants not
country's traditions.
heritage and
supposed
The
that the residents
cultural norms established as they
at home in this
crime rates.
the Irish,
this rise
takes
the Germans and
quite a
while,
become
area.
other
This
gro~ps.
generations
in
fact.
The change
that I
have made
continue tracking
the advancement
they
ghetto
leave
the
criminology professors.
rise through
leadership
minority
thwe
and
group
Irish Catholics.
-,
timespans
for
and
I
electability
theory is
of the minority
are
no
longer
have theorized
zones to
to make
in this
that,
respectability,
potential.
the ultimate
they
Thus
other
minorities
groups after
interesting
just as
far,
to reach
the
to
groups
also rise
achievement has
Studying their rise should give
simply to
the
in
only
been the
some probable
same
level
ao
Of course,
will not be
anywhere near exact
due to various problems in such comparisons,
like the size of the
achievement.
populations,
these
rates,
birth
attitudes,
this author has
many possible variables,
and importance
changes in
with
decided to use
as a
political positions
of
etc.
baseline
so
number
for
this
prediction.
In
when
1960,
there
President,
Representatives
John
were already
in
and 12
Prostestants as one,
that time,
the
became
Catholics
90
the Senate.
first
Catholic
the House
in
Witho'J.t 9rouping
roughly
proportionate to
1979) .
their
It is this
numbers in
have
the same
numbers
in
the
author's estimate
that in order for any other group to achieve the presidency,
either
the
The ratio of Catholics in Congress was,
general population(Hanna,
must
of
this made Catholics the largest denomination
in Congress at the time.
at
Kennedy
Congressfirst
they
or else
constitute a larger percentage of the general than the Catholics.
Tables
7 and 8 give the representation of various religious
groups in the House and
were
33 Jewish
members of
Jewish Senators.
1963,
Senate from 1963 to 1991.
the House
of Representatives
This represented a net
which would
seem to
In 1991 there
and 8
gain of 30 seats since
represent a growing
viability for
a
Jewish presidential candidate.
According
increased
to
Table
9 ,
their membership
Senate membership held
slower rate
less able to
of increase
during
this
in Congress
steady at 2.
same
period
from 14 to
Not only
in their representation
secure the wider constituency
30
women
although
do \olOmen have
but they
required for
a
seem
Senator
Presumably,
and President.
drastically
female numbers would need to increase
before a
Senate
in the
woman
would be
a
viable
entirely
in the
candidate for the presidency.
In this
House,
to
Once again,
rose from 4 to 26.
show a lack of a
group.
very
Black representation,
same period
Of course,
good sign
widespread electoral base for this minority
an increase of 600% could be
for the
presidency.
this representation seems
future electability
Additionally,
the
intE?rpreted as a
of Blacks
static
number
for the
of
Black
Representatives from 1891 to 1943 do show a tremendous difference
from this newer trend.
Homosexuals
than
the other categories.
strong
and so widespread
member of
find
and Atheists
no
willful
Thus,
that
it is extremely
both
candidate
electorate.
belonging
seem that these
chance than any other minority
Of course,
either one.
admissions of
it would
little harder
rare to find any
In fa.ct,
to
I
cou.ld
either of
these
groups have
their
This might
even less
group of being knowingly elected.
of thes types of individual could
hid
to document
Feelings against these groups are so
Congress admitting to
groups.
the
are a
belief and/or
not be
be elected if
orientation
probable but
it
from
the
be
far
~"ould
easier than for a woman or a Black or any other minority group.
Assuming that
all of these minority
average rise in representation
any
of
them
presidency.
approximately
achieved the
The
it would be quite a
102
first Jewish
56 years
groups continued their
in 2048.
member
President
A
goal
for reaching
could be
female
while before
the
expected in
PresidE~nt
could be
expected just 40 years later in 2088,
finally
and a Black candidate would
just one hundred
win election in 2092,
years from now.
This is assuming a modest rise
of their averages for the past 28
years
these
to
continue.
theirpercentage
increases instead
52 years,
President in
If
a
groups
that these
then
will maintain
could
we could
Jewish President
President in just 20 years.
Black
groups
Blacks
years of
segregation.
years,
in 24
curren
however,
rises
seem
to
this
1873 was
representation
no Blacks in Congress.
author
to
would have been
be
headed
if not
a
For
lost during the
Black representation in
there were
and
it is doubtful
up to 7 and there had been 1 Black Senator already.
1929,
woman
momE~ntum.
are currently regaining ground
instance,
have a
Unfortunately,
their
continue
From 1899 to
Thus,
for
for the
already
current
what
their
various illegal
restrictions on Black voting.
All of the problems in determining each group's time for the
presidency
to say that
higher
are too lengthy to go
I
into at this timer
believe the lower estimates are
ones a maximum.
Presumably,
but suffice
a minimum and the
the actual
lengths of time
will be somewhere in between.
CONCLUSION
This study
First,
has yielded
"Can anyone become President?".
the information presented,
requirements
President.
-
answers to
of
the
that some campaigns
thE~
This author,
questions.
judging
by
believes that anyone meeting the legal
office
Unfortunately,
each of
has
a
chance
to
campaign
this study would lead one
will be more favorably
for
to believe
regarded than others
and some might
the funds necessary to
not be able to accumulate
have a campaign in anything but name.
Second,
this study has given strong indications that a known
homosexual or
Additionally,
future.
unfavorable
future.
not be
Atheist could
chance for
information
the
Blacks,
With these results,
foreseeable
elected in the
women
presented
and
Jews
gives
in
the
near
say that
this author would have to
even if people meet the legal
an
requirements of the office they do
not always have a chance to be elected.
PROBLEMS
All of the methods
their application.
employed in this study have
Perhaps the biggest problem is
expectations and personal bias.
more
by the reader.
in-depth
factor,
study of
Additionally,
voters'
cannot be expected
this author's
I expected to find much the same
data that was found and unintentional "slanting"
out except
problems in
cannot be ruled
current trends,
feelings over
to continue in
time
without
and other
exactly the fashions
predicted.
The information on
this author is
campaigning has one
inexperienced in this
information acquired
there is subject
major flaw in
area of study ..
to an even
Thus,
that
any
qreater doubt
than the rest of this study.
Polling
sample
information has
validity.
Allegedly,
reliable nationwide but I
the liablity
the
polls used are
have not had the
investigation of the sample validity.
readers to keep in mind.
of all
polling,
the
among the most
opportunity to do any
This is one more thing for
In
conclusion,
underlying
this
the
problem,
cause of the other problems,
study.
minorities,
and
perhaps
this study should have
such as campaign expenditures for various
and should have studied each area in more depth.
breakdowns
the
is the cursory nature of
To yield dependable results,
looked into more areas,
instance,
primary
of the voting populace
For
and comparison with
breakdowns of poll information would have been helpful.
Overall,
I would say that this study can be read as an argumentative essay
but
it is
study.
-
not quite
up to
the standards
of a
true scholarly
Table 1:
Previous positior.s held by Presidents
Number of Presidents holding position before
their presidency
position
Eef0:::e 1900
After 1900
Vice President
7
7
Cabinet member
7
3
13
5
')
5
0
1
Governor
11
6
State legislator
16
5
State judge
...
1
2
Hayor
2
1
Diplomat/ambassador
7
2
11
1
U.S.
Representative
U.S.
Senator
Federal judge
Hilitary genera:
Taken from Vital Statistics on American Politics
-
Table 2:
Last rosition held
b~for~
presidency
Number of Presidents holding position
Before 1900
position
After 1900
Vice President
Succeeded to presidency
4
Won election to presidency
"
Congress
HOllse
1
Senat~
3
Appointive federal
o
office
Military general
3
Cabinet Secretary
3
Ambassador
2
()
Other civilian
1
o
4
4
Governor
Taken from Vital Statistics on American Politics
Latest
public
offices
Table
3:
presidential nominations, 1936-1988
Public Office
by
held
Percentage of all presidential
nominees
9
President
Vice President
27
U.S.
14
senator
Governor
41
Cabinet officer
0
U.s.
0
Representative
Mayor
0
Supreme Court justice
0
All others
0
None
9
Total
Taken from
canc:idates
100
(N=22)
Vital Statistics on American Politics
for
Table 4:
Temperature/Feeling Scale for Jews and Catholics
in percentages
Temperature
-
Catholics
Jews
00-09
1
3
10-19
1
2
20-29
o
1
30-39
2
3
40-49
6
7
50-59
15
20
60-69
18
19
70-79
21
23
80-89
20
15
90-99
15
9
(1986)
Table 5:
Temperature/feeling scale for Jews and Catholics(1988)
in percentages
Temperature
-
Catholics
Jews
00-09
2
2
10-19
1
2
20-29
0
1
30-39
2
3
40-49
4
4
50-59
28
37
60-69
13
12
70-79
20
17
30-89
18
14
90-99
13
8
Table 6:
Temperature/feeling scale for Jews and Catholics
in percentages
Temperature
--------
Catholics
Jews
--------
00-09
2
2
10-19
2
2
20-29
1
1
30-39
3
3
40-49
4
6
50-59
23
30
60-69
12
13
70-79
19
20
80-89
19
13
90-99
16
9
Taken from An American Profile-Opinions and Behavior,
1972-1989
Religious Affiliation of
Ta.ble 7:
::'963-1991
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
87
94
95
96
101
99
110
9
15
16
17
12
12
20
Baptist
48
42
42
43
42
45
47
Episcopal
45
54
50
49
49
50
50
Hettodist
78
69
69
66
65
63
63
6 8
56
64
64
67
60
50
99
1 05
97
1 00
98
1 05
95
434
435
433
435
434
434
435
979
1 98 1
1 9 83
1 9 85
, 989
1 99 1
115
11 6
119
124
1 25
120
1 22
23
23
27
29
30
31
33
46
43
41
38
36
43
47
Ji1 rl ; a('"'"fln;')
1
......
-c.----'-'
48
51
52
42
44
43
41
Hethodist
60
58
56
57
62
63
62
45
52
46
49
47
42
42
94
92
94
93
91
93
88
435
435
435
432
435
4 35
Catholics
JeHish
Protestant
P ....
r.:::a
<:::. h \T
.... •...... ..,..1
-
l'.ll
r..... ~....,.. . r;
.... --
.::) n
..........
other
Total
-
Table 7
trr'lnt\
............. --
...
,I
1 97 7
Cattoli c
JE'~'lish
~
Protestant
Baptist
-
I:"'~-
-PresbvtAr;
- - -- _...
1
1".11
.=In
othel.-
Total
Taken from Vi tal
Statisti cs on COt}.gress ,
::. 99 1
- 1 99 2
4
:: 5
Table ~ •.....P
~
'-"
-- -- -- r...... l'_.~
..... 1 .j
Q
If ;
~
.-"
"~f f i 1 i at i
0
r.. S
of Senators,
1963-1991
1 96 3
1 96 5
1 96 7
1969
1 97 1
1971
19 7 3
11
14
13
13
12
14
-'--
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
12
12
11
9
8
8
9
l':"' '-" .....
1
15
15
15
15
17
17
15
Hethodist
23
22
23
22
20
18
16
11
11
12
13
16
14
17
26
24
24
26
25
27
24
100
1 00
1 00
100
100
1 00
99
1977
1979
1 98 1
1 9 83
1985
1 989
1991
13
::"3
17
17
19
19
20
5
7
6
8
8
8
8
9
10
11
,2
12
20
20
21
::: ')
"!
Catho lies
Je~"lish
"'
'"
P~otesta!'.t
--
"P,;:,nr
i ",1--sc ..........
1<'n;
c.:r(')T\.:l
-r:-'-"~----
- - -----l - -- --
P ....
,Qc.h,"t-~r; ;:,")
....... ...
~
.Z>..ll other
Total
Tabl e
8 ( co!'.t )
Ca tholics
J e~·J ish
P~otesta!'.ts
- --
-
"P,;:,n1- i ",1-
-
r-
9
--i
-7
,
, 7
!v!ethodist
::: 0
1
9
18
18
16
13
13
1. 4
12
1. 0
10
9
9
9
22
21
20
17
16
9
::: 0
1 00
1 00
100
100
1 00
100
100
Ji'n;
-'" - - - -
c:.,.....nn.~
Ie
P!:'esbuter --i ;'In.
1
All other
Total
.-
'-""~
Taken from Vital Statistics
O!1
1991-1992
1
8
Tabl e 9 :
'~Or,1.e!!
Year
House
1917
1
in
r,,",nn1-':::'c:.c.
.......... A'O'"=' .... -' ,... _
1
Senate
1919
9 1 7- 1 99 1
Year
House
Senat.e
1 955
17
1
l 957
15
1
1 959
17
1
192 1
2
1923
1
1 961
18
2
1 925
3
, 96 3
12
2
l 927
3
1965
,
"-
2
1 929
9
1 96 "1
10
1
1 93 1
7
1
1
969
10
1
1933
7
1
1971
13
1
1935
6
2
1973
16
l
19 37
5
2
1975
19
1 9 39
8
1
97 7
18
1 9 41
9
1
97 9
16
2
1943
8
, 981
.-
1
9
2
9 45
11
1 983
22
2
1 947
7
1
1985
22
2
1949
9
1
1987
23
2
1 9 51
10
l
1 989
25
2
1 953
12
1
1 99 1
28
2
j
1
1
Taken from Vital Statistics en
Ccn7res~,
1991-1992
Table 10:
Year
Blacks
House
in Congress,
Senate
~~------------------.-----------~-
Year
------
House
2
5
1947
2
1873
7
1949
2
1875
7
1
1951
2
1877
3
1
1953
2
1
1955
3
2
1871
1
1881
2
1957
3
1883
2
1959
3
1885
2
1961
3
1963
4
1887
SenatE!
--------------~
1945
1869
1879
-
1869-1991
1889
3
1965
5
1891
1
1967
5
1
1893
1
1969
9
1
1895
"1.
1971
13
1
1897
1
1973
16
1
1899
1
1975
16
1
1929
1
1977
15
1
1931
1
1979
15
1933
1
1981
17
1935
1
1983
20
1937
1
1985
20
1939
1
1987
22
1941
1
1989
23
1943
1
1991
26
Taken
from V Lt~}~ta tis ~tc:_~_~I!_ __c;:_'2!l SL£~ s s ,__ J:2~_;=_1_9 9 ~_
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