A Normative View on Possibility Distributions Christer Carlsson1 , Robert Fullér1,2 , and Péter Majlender3,1,2 1 2 3 Institute for Advanced Management Systems Research, Åbo Akademi University, Lemminkäinengatan 14C, FIN-20520 Åbo, Finland, christer.carlsson@abo.fi, Department of Operations Research, Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1C, P. O. Box 120, H-1518 Budapest, Hungary, robert.fuller@abo.fi, Turku Centre for Computer Science, Åbo Akademi University, Lemminkäinengatan 14B, FIN-20520 Åbo, Finland, peter.majlender@abo.fi Abstract In this paper we will consider fuzzy numbers from a normative point of view and will illustrate the concepts of possibilistic mean value, covariance, variance and correlation by several examples. We will show that zero correlation does not always imply non-interactivity. We will also discuss the limitations of direct definitions of joint possibility distributions (for example, when one simple aggregates the membership values of two fuzzy numbers by a triangular norm). 1 Probability and Possibility The concept of independence (dependence) has been studied in depth in possibility theory, for good surveys see, e.g. (Campos and Huete 1999). Dubois and Prade (1987) defined an interval-valued expectation of fuzzy numbers, viewing them as consonant random sets. They also showed that this expectation remains additive in the sense of addition of fuzzy numbers. Carlsson and Fullér (2001) introduced the possibilistic mean value, variance and covariance of fuzzy numbers. Fullér 2 C. Carlsson, R. Fullér and P. Majlender and Majlender (2003) introduced the notations of crisp weighted possibilistic mean value, variance and covariance of fuzzy numbers, that are consistent with the extension principle. Fullér and Majlender (2003a) introduced a measure of interactivity between marginal distributions of a joint possibility distribution C as the expected value of their interactivity relation on C. Carlsson et al (2003) showed a possibilistic analog of the probabilistic Cauchy-Schwarz inequality. In this paper we will illustrate some important feautures of possibilistic mean value, covariance, variance and correlation by several examples. In probability theory, the dependency between two random variables can be characterized through their joint probability density function. Namely, if X and Y are two random variables with probability density functions fX (x) and fY (y), respectively, then the density function, fX,Y (x, y), of their joint random variable (X, Y ), should satisfy the following properties Z Z fX,Y (t, y)dt = fY (y), (1) fX,Y (x, t)dt = fX (x), R R for all x, y ∈ R. Furthermore, fX (x) and fY (y) are called the the marginal probability density functions of random variable (X, Y ). The covariance between X and Y is defined as Cov(X, Y ) = E(XY ) − E(X)E(Y ), where E is the expected value operator, and if X and Y are independent then Cov(X, Y ) = 0. For any random variables X and Y and real numbers λ and µ the following relationship holds Var(λX + µY ) = λ2 Var(X) + µ2 Var(Y ) + 2λµCov(X, Y ), where Var(X) denotes the variance of X. The correlation coefficient between X and Y is defined by Cov(X, Y ) , ρ(X, Y ) = p Var(X)Var(Y ) and it is clear that −1 ≤ ρ(X, Y ) ≤ 1. A Normative View on Possibility Distributions 3 A fuzzy set A in R is said to be a fuzzy number if it is normal, fuzzy convex and has an upper semi-continuous membership function of bounded support. The family of all fuzzy numbers will be denoted by F . A γ-level set of a fuzzy set A in Rm is defined by [A]γ = {x ∈ Rm : A(x) ≥ γ} if γ > 0 and [A]γ = cl{x ∈ Rm : A(x) > γ} (the closure of the support of A) if γ = 0. If A ∈ F is a fuzzy number then [A]γ is a convex and compact subset of R for all γ ∈ [0, 1]. Fuzzy numbers can be considered as possibility distributions (Zadeh 1978). A fuzzy set B in Rm is said to be a joint possibility distribution of fuzzy numbers Ai ∈ F, i = 1, . . . , m, if it satisfies the relationship max xj ∈R, j6=i B(x1 , . . . , xm ) = Ai (xi ), ∀xi ∈ R, i = 1, . . . , m. Furthermore, Ai is called the i-th marginal possibility distribution of B, and the projection of B on the i-th axis is Ai for i = 1, . . . , m. If Ai ∈ F, i = 1, . . . , m, and B is their joint possibility distribution then the relationships B(x1 , . . . , xm ) ≤ min{A1 (x1 ), . . . , Am (xm )} and [B]γ ⊆ [A1 ]γ × · · · × [Am ]γ hold for all x1 , . . . , xm ∈ R and γ ∈ [0, 1]. Fuzzy numbers Ai ∈ F, i = 1, . . . , m, are said to be non-interactive if their joint possibility distribution, B, is given by B(x1 , . . . , xm ) = min{A1 (x1 ), . . . , Am (xm )}, or, equivalently, [B]γ = [A1 ]γ × · · · × [Am ]γ , for all x1 , . . . , xm ∈ R and γ ∈ [0, 1]. Note 1. If A, B ∈ F are non-interactive then their joint membership function is defined by A × B. It is clear that in this case any change in the membership function of A does not effect the second marginal possibility distribution and vice versa. On the orther hand, if A and B are said to be interactive then they can not take their values independently of each other (Dubois, Prade 1988). Note 2. Marginal probability distributions are determined from the joint one by the principle of ’falling integrals’ and marginal possibility distributions are determined from the joint possibility distribution by the principle of ’falling shadows’. 4 C. Carlsson, R. Fullér and P. Majlender Fig. 1. Non-interactive possibility distributions. Let A ∈ F be fuzzy number with [A]γ = [a1 (γ), a2 (γ)], γ ∈ [0, 1]. A function f : [0, 1] → R is said to be a weighting function if f is nonnegative, monotone increasing and satisfies the following normalization condition Z 1 f (γ)dγ = 1. (2) 0 Different weighting functions can give different (case-dependent) importances to γ-levels sets of fuzzy numbers. 2 Weighted Possibilistic Mean Value and Variance The notations of weighted lower possibilistic and upper possibilistic mean values, crisp possibilistic mean value and variance of fuzzy numbers were introduced in (Fullér, Majlender 2003). Namely, they intro- A Normative View on Possibility Distributions 5 duced the f -weighted possibilistic mean value of fuzzy number A as Ef (A) = Z 1 a1 (γ) + a2 (γ) f (γ)dγ. 2 0 (3) We note that if f (γ) = 2γ, γ ∈ [0, 1] then Ef (A) = Z 0 1 a1 (γ) + a2 (γ) 2γdγ = 2 Z 1 [a1 (γ) + a2 (γ)] γdγ. 0 That is the f -weighted possibilistic mean value defined by (3) can be considered as a generalization of possibilistic mean value introduced in (Carlsson, Fullér 2001). From the definition of a weighting function it can be seen that f (γ) might be zero for certain (unimportant) γ-level sets of A. So by introducing different weighting functions we can give different (case-dependent) importances to γ-levels sets of fuzzy numbers. Example 1 Let A = (a, b, α, β) be a fuzzy number of trapezoidal form with peak [a, b], left-width α > 0 and right-width β > 0, and let f (γ) = (n + 1)γ n , n ≥ 0. The γ-level of A is computed by [A]γ = [a − (1 − γ)α, b + (1 − γ)β], ∀γ ∈ [0, 1]. Then the weighted possibilistic mean values of A are computed by Ef (A) = β−α a+b + . 2 2(n + 2) So, lim Ef (A) = lim n→∞ n→∞ a+b β−α a+b = + . 2 2(n + 2) 2 Let A, B ∈ F and let f be a weighting function. In (Fullér, Majlender 2003) the f -weighted possibilistic variance of A was introduced as Varf (A) = Z 1 0 a2 (γ) − a1 (γ) 2 f (γ)dγ, 2 (4) 6 C. Carlsson, R. Fullér and P. Majlender and the f -weighted covariance of A and B was defined by Z 1 a2 (γ) − a1 (γ) b2 (γ) − b1 (γ) · f (γ)dγ. Covf (A, B) = 2 2 0 (5) It should be noted that if f (γ) = 2γ, γ ∈ [0, 1] then Varf (A) = Z 1 0 = 1 2 Z 1 a2 (γ) − a1 (γ) 2 2γdγ 2 2 [a2 (γ) − a1 (γ)] γdγ = Var(A), 0 and Covf (A, B) = Z 0 1 a2 (γ) − a1 (γ) b2 (γ) − b1 (γ) · 2γdγ 2 2 Z 1 1 = (a2 (γ) − a1 (γ)) · (b2 (γ) − b1 (γ)) γdγ 2 0 = Cov(A, B). Where Var(A) and Cov(A, B) denote the possibilistic variance and covariance introduced by (Carlsson, Fullér 2001). That is the f -weighted possibilistic variance and covariance defined by (4) and (5) can be considered as a generalization of the concepts introduced by (Carlsson, Fullér 2001). It can easily be verified that the weighted covariance is a symmetrical bilinear operator. Example 2 Let A = (a, b, α, β) be a trapezoidal fuzzy number and let f (γ) = (n + 1)γ n be a weighting function. Then, #2 a2 (γ) − a1 (γ) γ n dγ Varf (A) = (n + 1) 2 0 b−a (n + 1)(α + β)2 α+β 2 = + + . 2 2(n + 2) 4(n + 2)2 (n + 3) Z 1 " A Normative View on Possibility Distributions 7 Example 3 Let A = (a, b, α, β) and B = (a′ , b′ , α′ , β ′ ) be fuzzy numbers of trapezoidal form. Let f (γ) = (n + 1)γ n , n ≥ 0, be a weighting function, then the power-weighted covariance of A and B is computed by " #" # b−a b ′ − a′ α+β α′ + β ′ Covf (A, B) = + + 2 2(n + 2) 2 2(n + 2) + (n + 1)(α + β)(α′ + β ′ ) . 4(n + 2)2 (n + 3) So, lim Covf (A, B) = n→∞ b − a b ′ − a′ · . 2 2 If a = b and a′ = b′ , i.e. we have two triangular fuzzy numbers, then their covariance becomes Covf (A, B) = (α + β)(α′ + β ′ ) . 2(n + 2)(n + 3) The following theorem (Fullér, Majlender 2003) shows that the variance of linear combinations of fuzzy numbers can easily be computed (in a similar manner as in probability theory). Theorem 1 Let f be a weighting function, let A and B be fuzzy numbers and let λ and µ be real numbers. Then the following properties hold, Covf (λA + µB, C) = |λ|Covf (A, C) + |µ|Covf (B, C), and Varf (λA + µB) = λ2 Varf (A) + µ2 Varf (B) + 2|λ||µ|Covf (A, B), where the operations additions and multiplication by scalar of fuzzy numbers are defined by the sup-min extension principle (Zadeh 1965). 8 C. Carlsson, R. Fullér and P. Majlender 3 Expected Value of Functions on Fuzzy Sets The main drawback of definition (5) is that Covf (A, B) is always nonnegative for any pair of fuzzy numbers, A and B. So even though definition (5) is consistent with the extension principle it may not always be consistent with the principle of ’falling shadows’. In this section we will use the concept of average values of well-chosen real-valued function on γ-level sets of a joint possibility distribution to measure covariance between γ-level sets of its marginal distributions. Let B be a joint possibility distribution in Rn , let γ ∈ [0, 1] and let g : Rn → R be a function. It is well-known from analysis that the average value of function g on [B]γ can be computed by Z 1 Z C[B]γ (g) = g(x)dx γ dx [B] [B]γ =Z 1 dx1 . . . dxn Z g(x1 , . . . , xn )dx1 . . . dxn . [B]γ [B]γ Following (Fullér, Majlender 2003a) will call C as the central value operator. If g : R → R is a single-variable function and A ∈ F is a fuzzy number then the average value of function g on [A]γ is defined by Z 1 Z C[A]γ (g) = g(x)dx. γ dx [A] [A]γ Especially, if g(x) = x, for all x ∈ R is the identity function and A ∈ F is a fuzzy number with [A]γ = [a1 (γ), a2 (γ)], then the average value of the identity function on [A]γ is computed by Z a1 (γ) + a2 (γ) 1 . xdx = C[A]γ (id) = Z 2 γ dx [A] [A]γ A Normative View on Possibility Distributions 9 Because C[A]γ (id) is nothing else, but the center of [A]γ we will use the shorter notation C([A]γ ) for C[A]γ (id). It is clear that C[B]γ is linear for any arbitrarily fixed joint possibility distribution B and for any γ ∈ [0, 1]. Let us denote the projection functions on R2 by πx and πy , that is, πx (u, v) = u and πy (u, v) = v for u, v ∈ R. The following two theorems (Fullér, Majlender 2003a) show two important properties of central value operator. Theorem 2 If A, B ∈ F are non-interactive and g = πx + πy is the addition operator on R2 then C[A×B]γ (πx + πy ) = C[A]γ (id) + C[B]γ (id) = C([A]γ ) + C([B]γ ), for all γ ∈ [0, 1]. Theorem 3 If A, B ∈ F are non-interactive and p = πx πy is the multiplication operator on R2 then C[A×B]γ (πx πy ) = C[A]γ (id) · C[B]γ (id) = C([A]γ ) · C([B]γ ), for all γ ∈ [0, 1]. The following defintion (Fullér, Majlender 2003a) is crucial for the theory of possibilistic dependencies. Definition 1 Let C be the joint possibility distribution with marginal possibility distributions A, B ∈ F, and let γ ∈ [0, 1]. The measure of interactivity between the γ-level sets of A and B is defined by R[C]γ (πx , πy ) = C[C]γ (πx − C[C]γ (πx ))(πy − C[C]γ (πy )) . Using the definition of central value we have Z 1 (x − C[C]γ (πx ))(y − C[C]γ (πy ))dxdy R[C]γ (πx , πy ) = Z γ [C] dxdy [C]γ = C[C]γ (πx πy ) − C[C]γ (πx ) · C[C]γ (πy ), for all γ ∈ [0, 1]. 10 C. Carlsson, R. Fullér and P. Majlender Note 3. The interactivity relation computes the average value of the interactivity function g(x, y) = (x − C[C]γ (πx ))(y − C[C]γ (πy )), on [C]γ . We can also use the principle of central values to introduce the notation of expected value of functions on fuzzy sets. Let g : R → R be a function and A ∈ F. Let us consider again the average value of function g on [A]γ Z 1 Z C[A]γ (g) = g(x)dx. γ dx [A] [A]γ In (Fullér, Majlender 2003a) the expected value of function g on A with respect to a weighting function f was defined by Z Z 1 Z 1 1 Z g(x)dxf (γ)dγ. Ef (g; A) = C[A]γ (g)f (γ)dγ = γ 0 0 dx [A] [A]γ Especially, if g(x) = x, for all x ∈ R is the identity function then we get Z 1 a1 (γ) + a2 (γ) Ef (id; A) = Ef (A) = f (γ)dγ, 2 0 which is thef -weighted possibilistic mean value of A introduced in (Fullér, Majlender 2003). Note 4. The expected value of a function on a fuzzy number A is nothing else but the expected value of its average values on all gamma level sets of A. The variance of A was defined in (Fullér, Majlender 2003a) as the expected value of function g(x) = (x − C([A]γ ))2 on A. That is, Z 1 (a2 (γ) − a1 (γ))2 f (γ)dγ. Varf (A) = Ef (g; A) = 12 0 A Normative View on Possibility Distributions 11 The covariance between marginal possibility distributions was defined in (Fullér, Majlender 2003a) as the expected value of their interactivity function on their joint possibility distribution. Namely, if C is a joint possibility distribution in R2 and A, B ∈ F denote its marginal possibility distributions then the covariance of A and B with respect to a weighting function f (and with repect to their joint possibility distributioin C) was defined by Covf (A, B) = = Z 1 0 Z 1 R[C]γ (πx , πy )f (γ)dγ 0 (6) C[C]γ (πx πy ) − C[C]γ (πx ) · C[C]γ (πy ) f (γ)dγ. The next theorem (Fullér, Majlender 2003a) states the bilinearity of the interactivity relation operator. Theorem 4 Let C be a joint possibility distribution in R2 , and let λ, µ ∈ R. Then R[C]γ (λπx + µπy , λπx + µπy ) = λ2 R[C]γ (πx , πx ) + µ2 R[C]γ (πy , πy ) + 2λµR[C]γ (πx , πy ). The following theorem (Carlsson et al 2003) shows a very important property of the correlation operator. Theorem 5 Let A, B ∈ F be fuzzy numbers with joint possibility distribution C. Then, their correlation coefficient defined by Covf (A, B) , ρf (A, B) = p Varf (A)Varf (B) satisfies the relationship −1 ≤ ρf (A, B) ≤ 1 for any weighting function f . 12 C. Carlsson, R. Fullér and P. Majlender 4 Illustrations of Possibilistic Correlation Let us consider several interesting cases. In (Carlsson et al 2003) we proved that if A and B are non-interactive, that is, their joint possibility distribution is A × B then ρf (A, B) = 0. Example 1 Consider now the case depicted in Fig. 2. It can be shown (Carlsson et al 2003) that in this case ρf (A, B) = 1. Fig. 2. The case of ρf (A, B) = 1. Note 5. In this case ρf (A, B) = 1 for any weighting function f ; and if A(u) = γ for some u ∈ R then there exists a unique v ∈ R that B can take (see Fig. 2), furthermore, if u is moved to the left (right) then the corresponding value (that B can take) will also move to the left (right). Loosely speaking, in this case the shadows move in tandem that is, if one moves A to the left (right) then B will also move to the left (right). A Normative View on Possibility Distributions 13 Example 2 Consider now the case depicted in Fig. 3. It can be shown (Carlsson et al 2003) that in this case ρf (A, B) = −1. Note 6. In this case ρf (A, B) = −1 for any weighting function f ; and if A(u) = γ for some u ∈ R then there exists a unique v ∈ R that B can take (see Fig. 3), furthermore, if u is moved to the left (right) then the corresponding value (that B can take) will move to the right (left). Loosely speaking, in this case the shadows move oppositively that is, if one moves A to the left (right) then B will move to the right (left). Fig. 3. The case of ρf (A, B) = −1. Example 3 Let A(x) = B(x) = x · χ[0,1] (x) for x ∈ R. Thus, the γ-level sets of A and B are [A]γ = [B]γ = [γ, 1] for γ ∈ [0, 1]. Let their joint possibility distribution I be defined by I(x, y) = (x + y − 1) · χT (x, y), 14 C. Carlsson, R. Fullér and P. Majlender where T = {(x, y) ∈ R2 |x ≤ 1, y ≤ 1, x + y ≥ 1}. It is easy to see that, [I]γ = cl{(x, y) ∈ R2 |I(x, y) > γ} = {(x, y) ∈ R2 |x ≤ 1, y ≤ 1, x + y ≥ 1 + γ}. This situation is depicted on Fig. 4, where we have shifted the fuzzy sets Fig. 4. The case of ρf (A, B) = −1/3. to get a better view of the situation. We shall compute the correlation coefficient between A and B. From the equations, Z Z (1 − γ)2 (1 − γ)2 (1 + γ)(5 + γ) dxdy = xydxdy = , , 2 24 [I]γ [I]γ Z Z Z 1 1 (1 − γ)2 (2 + γ) xdxdy = ydxdy = , (1 − x2 )dx = 2 γ 6 [I]γ [I]γ A Normative View on Possibility Distributions 15 and Z dx = 1 − γ, [A]γ Z xdx = [A]γ Z x2 dx = [A]γ (1 − γ)(1 + γ + γ 2 ) , 3 (1 − γ)(1 + γ) 2 we get 1 Covf (A, B) = − 36 Z 1 (1 − γ)2 f (γ)dγ, 0 and Varf (A) = Varf (B) = 1 12 Z 1 (1 − γ)2 f (γ)dγ, 0 Therefore, ρf (A, B) = −1/3, for any weighting function f . Example 4 Let A(x) = B(1 − x) = x · χ[0,1] (x) for x ∈ R. So, the γlevel set of A and B are computed by [A]γ = [γ, 1] and [B]γ = [0, 1−γ] for γ ∈ [0, 1]. Let H(x, y) = (x − y) · χV (x, y), where V = {(x, y) ∈ R2 |x ≤ 1, y ≥ 0, x − y ≥ 0}. This situation is depicted on Fig. 5, where we have shifted the fuzzy sets to get a better view of the situation. After some calculations we get ρf (A, B) = 1/3, for any weighting function f . 16 C. Carlsson, R. Fullér and P. Majlender Fig. 5. The case of ρf (A, B) = 1/3. 5 Interactive Fuzzy Numbers can be Uncorrelated Zero correlation does not always imply non-interactivity. Let A, B ∈ F be fuzzy numbers, let C be their joint possibility distribution, and let γ ∈ [0, 1]. Suppose that [C]γ is symmetrical, i.e. there exists a ∈ R such that C(x, y) = C(2a − x, y), for all x, y ∈ [C]γ (hence, line defined by {(a, t)|t ∈ R} is the axis of symmetry of [C]γ ). We shall show that in this case the interactivity relation of [A]γ and [B]γ vanishes, i.e. R[C]γ (πx , πy ) = 0. Indeed, let H = {(x, y) ∈ [C]γ |x ≤ a}, then Z [C]γ xydxdy = Z H xy + (2a − x)y dxdy = 2a Z H ydxdy, A Normative View on Possibility Distributions Z Z xdxdy = Z ydxdy = 2 [C]γ [C]γ H x + (2a − x) dxdy = 2a Z ydxdy, Z dxdy = 2 [C]γ H Z 17 dxdy, H Z dxdy, H therefore, we obtain R[C]γ (πx , πy ) = Z −Z 1 [C]γ dxdy Z [C]γ 1 dxdy Z xydxdy [C]γ [C]γ xdxdy Z 1 dxdy Z ydxdy = 0. [C]γ [C]γ So, if all γ-level sets of joint possibility distribution C are symmetrical Fig. 6. The case of ρf (A, B) = 0 for interactive fuzzy numbers. 18 C. Carlsson, R. Fullér and P. Majlender then Covf (A, B) = 0, for any weighting function f . 6 Explicitly Given Joint Possibility Distributions In many papers authors consider joint possibility distributions that are derived from given marginal distributions by aggregating their membership values. Namely, let A, B ∈ F. We will say that their joint possibility distribution C is directly defined from its marginal distributions if C(x, y) = T (A(x), B(y)), x, y ∈ R, where T : [0, 1] × [0, 1] → [0, 1] is a function satisfying the properties max T (A(x), B(y)) = A(x), ∀x ∈ R, (7) max T (A(x), B(y)) = B(y), ∀y ∈ R, (8) y and x for example a triangular norm. Note 7. In this case the joint distribution depends barely on the membership values of its marginal distributions. We will show that in this case the covariance (and, consequently, the correlation) between its marginal distributions will be zero whenever at least one of its marginal distributions is symmetrical. Theorem 6 Let A, B ∈ F and let their joint possibility distribution C be defined by C(x, y) = T (A(x), B(y)), for x, y ∈ R, where T is a function satisfying conditions (7) and (8). If A is a symmetrical fuzzy number then Covf (A, B) = 0, for any fuzzy number B, aggregator T , and weighting function f . A Normative View on Possibility Distributions 19 Proof. If A is a symmetrical fuzzy number with center a such that A(x) = A(2a − x) for all x ∈ R then, C(x, y) = T (A(x), B(y)) = T (A(2a − x), B(y)) = C(2a − x, y), that is, C is symmetrical. Hence, considering the results obtained above we have R[C]γ (πx , πy ) = 0, and, therefore, Covf (A, B) = 0, for any weighting function f . Which ends the proof. Summary We have illustrated some important feautures of possibilistic mean value, covariance, variance and correlation by several examples. We have shown that zero correlation does not always imply non-interactivity. We have also shown the limitations of direct definitions of joint possibility distributions from individual fuzzy numbers, for example, when one simply aggregates the membership values of two fuzzy numbers by a triangular norm References Carlsson C, Fullér R (2001) On possibilistic mean value and variance of fuzzy numbers, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 122(2001) 315-326. 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